Search results for: Fast Dynamic Time Warping.

Authors: Pyotr Tsyba, Olga Razina, Ertan Güdekli, Ratbay Myrzakulov

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In this paper we consider the equation of motion for the F (R, T) gravity on their property of conformal invariance. It is shown that in the general case, such a theory is not conformal invariant. Studied special cases for the functions v and u in which can appear properties of the theory. Also we consider cosmological aspects F (R, T) theory of gravity, having considered particular case F (R, T) = μR+νT^2. Showed that in this case there is a nonlinear dependence of the parameter equation of state from time to time, which affects its evolution.

Keywords: Conformally invariance, F (R, T) gravity, metric FRW, equation of motion, dark energy.

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Authors: Ola Elfmark, Lars M. Bardal, Luca Oggiano, H˚avard Myklebust

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Team pursuit is a relatively new event in international long track speed skating. For a single speed skater the aerodynamic drag will account for up to 80% of the braking force, thus reducing the drag can greatly improve the performance. In a team pursuit the interactions between athletes in near proximity will also be essential, but is not well studied. In this study, systematic measurements of the aerodynamic drag, body posture and relative positioning of speed skaters have been performed in the low speed wind tunnel at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, in order to investigate the aerodynamic interaction between two speed skaters. Drag measurements of static speed skaters drafting, leading, side-by-side, and dynamic drag measurements in a synchronized and unsynchronized movement at different distances, were performed. The projected frontal area was measured for all postures and movements and a blockage correction was performed, as the blockage ratio ranged from 5-15% in the different setups. The static drag measurements where performed on two test subjects in two different postures, a low posture and a high posture, and two different distances between the test subjects 1.5T and 3T where T being the length of the torso (T=0.63m). A drag reduction was observed for all distances and configurations, from 39% to 11.4%, for the drafting test subject. The drag of the leading test subject was only influenced at -1.5T, with the biggest drag reduction of 5.6%. An increase in drag was seen for all side-by-side measurements, the biggest increase was observed to be 25.7%, at the closest distance between the test subjects, and the lowest at 2.7% with ∼ 0.7 m between the test subjects. A clear aerodynamic interaction between the test subjects and their postures was observed for most measurements during static measurements, with results corresponding well to recent studies. For the dynamic measurements, the leading test subject had a drag reduction of 3% even at -3T. The drafting showed a drag reduction of 15% when being in a synchronized (sync) motion with the leading test subject at 4.5T. The maximal drag reduction for both the leading and the drafting test subject were observed when being as close as possible in sync, with a drag reduction of 8.5% and 25.7% respectively. This study emphasize the importance of keeping a synchronized movement by showing that the maximal gain for the leading and drafting dropped to 3.2% and 3.3% respectively when the skaters are in opposite phase. Individual differences in technique also appear to influence the drag of the other test subject.

Keywords: Aerodynamic interaction, drag cycle, drag force, frontal area, speed skating.

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Authors: Tawiwat V., Tosapolporn P., Kedit J.

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This research proposes the state of art on how to control or find the trajectory paths of the RRP robot when the prismatic joint is malfunction. According to this situation, the minimum energy of the dynamic optimization is applied. The RRP robot or similar systems have been used in many areas such as fire fighter truck, laboratory equipment and military truck for example a rocket launcher. In order to keep on task that assigned, the trajectory paths must be computed. Here, the open loop control is applied and the result of an example show the reasonable solution which can be applied to the controllable system.

Keywords: RRP robot, Optimal Control, Minimum Energy and Under Actuator.

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Authors: Changjin Xu

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In this paper, we consider a two-neuron system with time-delayed connections between neurons. By analyzing the associated characteristic transcendental equation, its linear stability is investigated and Hopf bifurcation is demonstrated. Some explicit formulae for determining the stability and the direction of the Hopf bifurcation periodic solutions bifurcating from Hopf bifurcations are obtained by using the normal form theory and center manifold theory. Some numerical simulation results are given to support the theoretical predictions. Finally, main conclusions are given.

Keywords: Two-neuron system, delay, stability, Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: Aussadavut Dumrongsiri

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Web-based technologies have created numerous opportunities for electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) communication. There are many factors that affect customer adoption and decisionmaking process. However, only a few researches focus on some factors such as the membership time of forum and propensity to trust. Using a discrete-time event simulation to simulate a diffusion model along with a consumer decision model, the study shows the effect of each factor on adoption of opinions on on-line discussion forum. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of factor affecting information adoption and decision making process. The model is constructed to test quantitative aspects of each factor. The simulation study shows the membership time and the propensity to trust has an effect on information adoption and purchasing decision. The result of simulation shows that the longer the membership time in the communities and the higher propensity to trust could lead to the higher demand rates because consumers find it easier and faster to trust the person in the community and then adopt the eWOM. Other implications for both researchers and practitioners are provided.

Keywords: word of mouth, simulation, consumer behavior, ebusiness, marketing, diffusion process.

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Authors: Catherine A. Todd, Fazel Naghdy

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In this work a surgical simulator is produced which enables a training otologist to conduct a virtual, real-time prosthetic insertion. The simulator provides the Ear, Nose and Throat surgeon with real-time visual and haptic responses during virtual cochlear implantation into a 3D model of the human Scala Tympani (ST). The parametric model is derived from measured data as published in the literature and accounts for human morphological variance, such as differences in cochlear shape, enabling patient-specific pre- operative assessment. Haptic modeling techniques use real physical data and insertion force measurements, to develop a force model which mimics the physical behavior of an implant as it collides with the ST walls during an insertion. Output force profiles are acquired from the insertion studies conducted in the work, to validate the haptic model. The simulator provides the user with real-time, quantitative insertion force information and associated electrode position as user inserts the virtual implant into the ST model. The information provided by this study may also be of use to implant manufacturers for design enhancements as well as for training specialists in optimal force administration, using the simulator. The paper reports on the methods for anatomical modeling and haptic algorithm development, with focus on simulator design, development, optimization and validation. The techniques may be transferrable to other medical applications that involve prosthetic device insertions where user vision is obstructed.

Keywords: Haptic modeling, medical device insertion, real-time visualization of prosthetic implantation, surgical simulation.

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Authors: Bernd Scholz-Reiter, Christian Toonen, Jan Topi Tervo, Dennis Lappe

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Time series analysis often requires data that represents the evolution of an observed variable in equidistant time steps. In order to collect this data sampling is applied. While continuous signals may be sampled, analyzed and reconstructed applying Shannon-s sampling theorem, time-discrete signals have to be dealt with differently. In this article we consider the discrete-event simulation (DES) of job-shop-systems and study the effects of different sampling rates on data quality regarding completeness and accuracy of reconstructed inventory evolutions. At this we discuss deterministic as well as non-deterministic behavior of system variables. Error curves are deployed to illustrate and discuss the sampling rate-s impact and to derive recommendations for its wellfounded choice.

Keywords: discrete-event simulation, job-shop-system, sampling rate.

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Authors: Jason Sheng-Hong Tsai, Faezeh Ebrahimzadeh, Min-Ching Chung, Shu-Mei Guo, Leang-San Shieh, Tzong-Jiy Tsai, Li Wang

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In this paper, we first construct a new state and disturbance estimator using discrete-time proportional plus integral observer to estimate the system state and the unknown external disturbance for the discrete-time system with an input-to-output direct-feedthrough term. Then, the generalized optimal linear quadratic digital tracker design is applied to construct a proportional plus integral observer-based tracker for the system with an unknown external disturbance to have a desired tracking performance. Finally, a numerical simulation is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new application of our proposed approach.

Keywords: Optimal linear quadratic tracker, proportional plus integral observer, state estimator, disturbance estimator.

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Authors: Rudy Agustriyanto, Akbarningrum Fatmawati

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The utilization of cheese whey as a fermentation substrate to produce bio-ethanol is an effort to supply bio-ethanol demand as a renewable energy. Like other process systems, modeling is also required for fermentation process design, optimization and plant operation. This research aims to study the fermentation process of cheese whey by applying mathematics and fundamental concept in chemical engineering, and to investigate the characteristic of the cheese whey fermentation process. Steady state simulation results for inlet substrate concentration of 50, 100 and 150 g/l, and various values of hydraulic retention time, showed that the ethanol productivity maximum values were 0.1091, 0.3163 and 0.5639 g/l.h respectively. Those values were achieved at hydraulic retention time of 20 hours, which was the minimum value used in this modeling. This showed that operating reactor at low hydraulic retention time was favorable. Model of bio-ethanol production from cheese whey will enhance the understanding of what really happen in the fermentation process.

Keywords: Cheese whey, ethanol, fermentation, modeling.

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Authors: Lien Fa Lin, Yung Ming Li, Hsin Chen Hsieh

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The rise of smartphones brings new concept So-Lo-Mo (social-local-mobile) in mobile commerce area in recent years. However, current So-Lo-Mo services only focus on individual users but not a group of users, and the development of group commerce is not enough to satisfy the demand of real-time group buying and less to think about the social relationship between customers. In this research, we integrate mobile intelligence with group commerce and consider customers' preference, real-time context, and social influence as components in the mechanism. With the support of this mechanism, customers are able to gather near customers with the same potential purchase willingness through mobile devices when he/she wants to purchase products or services to have a real-time group-buying. By matching the demand and supply of mobile group-buying market, this research improves the business value of mobile commerce and group commerce further.

Keywords: Group formation, group commerce, mobile commerce, So-Lo-Mo, social influence.

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Authors: Bassma Aldahlan, Zongming Fei

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Recently, there is a great interest in smart parking application. Theses applications are enhanced by a vehicular ad-hoc network, which helps drivers find and reserve satiable packing spaces for a period of time ahead of time. Named Data Networking (NDN) is a future Internet architecture that benefits vehicular ad-hoc networks because of its clean-slate design and pure communication model. In this paper, we proposed an NDN-based frame-work for smart parking that involved a fog computing architecture. The proposed application had two main directions: First, we allowed drivers to query the number of parking spaces in a particular parking lot. Second, we introduced a technique that enabled drivers to make intelligent reservations before their arrival time. We also introduced a “push-based” model supporting the NDN-based framework for smart parking applications. To evaluate the proposed solution’s performance, we analyzed the function for finding parking lots with available parking spaces and the function for reserving a parking space. Our system showed high performance results in terms of response time and push overhead. The proposed reservation application performed better than the baseline approach.

Keywords: Cloud Computing, Vehicular Named Data Networking, Smart Parking Applications, Fog Computing.

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Authors: Juan F. Gutierrez, Jesus M. Quintero, Diego Sandoval

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An important feature of Lighting Emitting Diodes (LED) technology is the fast on-off commutation. This fact allows data transmission using modulation formats such as On-Off Keying (OOK) and Color Shift Keying (CSK). Since, CSK based on three color bands uses red, green, and blue monochromatic LED (RGB-LED) to define a pattern of chromaticities; this type of CSK provides poor color quality on the illuminated area. In this work, we present the design and implementation of a VLC system using RGB-based CSK with 16, 8, and 4 color points, mixing with a steady baseline of a phosphor white-LED, to improve the color quality of the LED-Fixture. The experimental system was assessed in terms of the Symbol Error Rate (SER) and the Color Rendering Index (CRI). Good color quality performance of the LED-Fixture was obtained with an acceptable SER. We describe the laboratory setup used to characterize and calibrate an LED-Fixture.

Keywords: Color rendering index, symbol error rate, color shift keying, visible light communications.

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Authors: Kyung Hyun, Choi, Minh Ngoc, Nong, M. Asif Ali, Rehmani

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This present paper proposes the modified Elastic Strip method for mobile robot to avoid obstacles with a real time system in an uncertain environment. The method deals with the problem of robot in driving from an initial position to a target position based on elastic force and potential field force. To avoid the obstacles, the robot has to modify the trajectory based on signal received from the sensor system in the sampling times. It was evident that with the combination of Modification Elastic strip and Pseudomedian filter to process the nonlinear data from sensor uncertainties in the data received from the sensor system can be reduced. The simulations and experiments of these methods were carried out.

Keywords: Collision avoidance, Avoidance obstacle, Elastic Strip, Real time collision avoidance.

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Authors: Anuj Kumar Sharma, Amit Sharma, Kulbhushan Agnihotri

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In this paper, a delayed plankton-nutrient interaction model consisting of phytoplankton, zooplankton and dissolved nutrient is considered. It is assumed that some species of phytoplankton releases toxin (known as toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP)) which is harmful for zooplankton growth and this toxin releasing process follows a discrete time variation. Using delay as bifurcation parameter, the stability of interior equilibrium point is investigated and it is shown that time delay can destabilize the otherwise stable non-zero equilibrium state by inducing Hopf-bifurcation when it crosses a certain threshold value. Explicit results are derived for stability and direction of the bifurcating periodic solution by using normal form theory and center manifold arguments. Finally, outcomes of the system are validated through numerical simulations.

Keywords: Plankton, Time delay, Hopf-bifurcation, Normal form theory, Center manifold theorem.

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Authors: Roberta Ranielle M. de Freitas, Vagner R. Botaro

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The relationship between biodegradation and mechanical behavior is fundamental for studies of the application of cellulose acetate films as a possible material for biodegradable packaging. In this work, the biodegradation of cellulose acetate (CA) with DS 2.5 was analyzed in simulated soil. CA films were prepared by casting and buried in the simulated soil. Samples were taken monthly and analyzed, the total time of biodegradation was 6 months. To characterize the biodegradable CA, the DMA technique was employed. The main result showed that the time of exposure to the simulated soil affects the mechanical properties of the films and the values of crystallinity. By DMA analysis, it was possible to conclude that as the CA is biodegraded, its mechanical properties were altered, for example, storage modulus has increased with biodegradation and the modulus of loss has decreased. Analyzes of DSC, XRD, and FTIR were also carried out to characterize the biodegradation of CA, which corroborated with the results of DMA. The observation of the carbonyl band by FTIR and crystalline indices obtained by XRD were important to evaluate the degradation of CA during the exposure time.

Keywords: Biodegradation, cellulose acetate, DMA, simulated soil.

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Authors: Omid Borazjani, Alireza Rajabi, Mojtaba Saeedimoghadam, Khodakhast Isapour

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High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) power transmission is employed to move large amounts of electric power. There are several possibilities to enhance the transient stability in a power system. One adequate option is by using the high controllability of the HVDC if HVDC is available in the system. This paper presents a control technique for HVDC to enhance the transient stability. The strategy controls the power through the HVDC to help make the system more transient stable during disturbances. Loss of synchronism is prevented by quickly producing sufficient decelerating energy to counteract accelerating energy gained during. In this study, the power flow in the HVDC link is modulated with the addition of an auxiliary signal to the current reference of the rectifier firing angle controller. This modulation control signal is derived from speed deviation signal of the generator utilizing a PD controller; the utilization of a PD controller is suitable because it has the property of fast response. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is demonstrated with a SMIB test system.

Keywords: HVDC, SMIB, Stability, Power System.

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Authors: Yu-Hsin Chen, Yuan-Tai Hsieh, Cheng-Shong Hong, Chia-Ching Wu, Cheng-Fu Yang, Yu-Jhen Liou

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In this study, we investigated (In,Ga,Zn)O_x (IGZO) thin films and examined their characteristics of using Ga₂O₃-2 ZnO (GZO) co-sputtered In₂O₃ prepared by dual target radio frequency magnetron sputtering at room temperature in a pure Ar atmosphere. RF powers of 80 W and 70 W were used for GZO and pure In₂O₃, room temperature (RT) was used as deposition temperature, and the deposition time was changed from 15 min to 60 min. Structural, surface, electrical, and optical properties of IGZO thin films were investigated as a function of deposition time. Furthermore, the GZO co-sputtered In₂O₃ thin films showed a very smooth and featureless surface and an amorphous structure regardless of the deposition time due to the room temperature sputtering process. We would show that the co-sputtered IGZO thin films exhibited transparent electrode properties with high transmittance ratio and low resistivity.

Keywords: IGZO, co-sputter, Ga2O3-2 ZnO, In2O3.

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Authors: Wen-Tzu Chen, Wen-Bin Kao

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This paper provides a scheme to improve the read efficiency of anti-collision algorithm in EPCglobal UHF Class-1 Generation-2 RFID standard. In this standard, dynamic frame slotted ALOHA is specified to solve the anti-collision problem. Also, the Q-algorithm with a key parameter C is adopted to dynamically adjust the frame sizes. In the paper, we split the C parameter into two parameters to increase the read speed and derive the optimal values of the two parameters through simulations. The results indicate our method outperforms the original Q-algorithm.

Keywords: RFID, anti-collision, Q algorithm, ALOHA

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Authors: Farzaneh Ahmadzadeh

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Quality control charts are very effective in detecting out of control signals but when a control chart signals an out of control condition of the process mean, searching for a special cause in the vicinity of the signal time would not always lead to prompt identification of the source(s) of the out of control condition as the change point in the process parameter(s) is usually different from the signal time. It is very important to manufacturer to determine at what point and which parameters in the past caused the signal. Early warning of process change would expedite the search for the special causes and enhance quality at lower cost. In this paper the quality variables under investigation are assumed to follow a multivariate normal distribution with known means and variance-covariance matrix and the process means after one step change remain at the new level until the special cause is being identified and removed, also it is supposed that only one variable could be changed at the same time. This research applies artificial neural network (ANN) to identify the time the change occurred and the parameter which caused the change or shift. The performance of the approach was assessed through a computer simulation experiment. The results show that neural network performs effectively and equally well for the whole shift magnitude which has been considered.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, change point estimation, monte carlo simulation, multivariate exponentially weighted movingaverage

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Authors: Oktavian Muhammad Rizki, Appiah Rita, Lastres Oscar, Miller True, Chapman Alec, Tsoukalas Lefteri H.

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The Purdue University Research Reactor-1 (PUR-1) is a 10 kWth pool-type research reactor located at Purdue University’s West Lafayette campus. The reactor was recently upgraded to use entirely digital instrumentation and control systems. However, currently, there is no automated control system to regulate the power in the reactor. We propose a fuzzy logic controller as a form of digital twin to complement the existing digital instrumentation system to monitor and stabilize power control using existing experimental data. This work assesses the feasibility of a power controller based on a Fuzzy Rule-Based System (FRBS) by modelling and simulation with a MATLAB algorithm. The controller uses power error and reactor period as inputs and generates reactivity insertion as output. The reactivity insertion is then converted to control rod height using a logistic function based on information from the recorded experimental reactor control rod data. To test the capability of the proposed fuzzy controller, a point-kinetic reactor model is utilized based on the actual PUR-1 operation conditions and a Monte Carlo N-Particle simulation result of the core to numerically compute the neutronics parameters of reactor behavior. The Point Kinetic Equation (PKE) was employed to model dynamic characteristics of the research reactor since it explains the interactions between the spatial and time varying input and output variables efficiently. The controller is demonstrated computationally using various cases: startup, power maneuver, and shutdown. From the test results, it can be proved that the implemented fuzzy controller can satisfactorily regulate the reactor power to follow demand power without compromising nuclear safety measures.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, power controller, reactivity, research reactor.

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Authors: Jamal Wiwoho, Pujiyono, Triyanto

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Terrorism is a real enemy for all countries, including Indonesia. Bomb attacks in some parts of Indonesia are proof that Indonesia has serious problems with terrorism. Perpetrators of terror are arrested and imprisoned, and some of them were executed. However, this method did not succeed in stopping the terrorist attacks. Former terrorists continue to carry out bomb attacks. Therefore, this paper proposes a program towards deradicalization efforts of former terrorists through entrepreneurship. This is necessary because it is impossible to change their radical ideology. The program is also motivated by understanding that terrorists generally come from poor families. This program aims to occupy their time with business activities so there is no time to plan and carry out bomb attacks. This research is an empirical law study. Data were collected by literature study, observation, and in-depth interviews. Data were analyzed with the Miles and Huberman interactive model. The results show that the entrepreneurship program is effective to prevent terrorist attack. Former terrorists are busy with their business. Therefore, they have no time to carry out bomb attacks.

Keywords: Deradicalization, terrorists, entrepreneurship.

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Authors: Madina Hamiane, Amina Khunji

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Detecting changes in multiple images of the same scene has recently seen increased interest due to the many contemporary applications including smart security systems, smart homes, remote sensing, surveillance, medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, speed and distance measurement, post-disaster forensics and much more. These applications differ in the scale, nature, and speed of change. This paper presents an application of image processing techniques to implement a real-time change detection system. Change is identified by comparing the RGB representation of two consecutive frames captured in real-time. The detection threshold can be controlled to account for various luminance levels. The comparison result is passed through a filter before decision making to reduce false positives, especially at lower luminance conditions. The system is implemented with a MATLAB Graphical User interface with several controls to manage its operation and performance.

Keywords: Image change detection, Image processing, image filtering, thresholding, B/W quantization.

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Authors: Fuad Noman, Sh-Hussain Salleh, Chee-Ming Ting, Hadri Hussain, Syed Rasul

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In this paper, a data-driven dictionary approach is proposed for the automatic detection and classification of cardiovascular abnormalities. Electrocardiography (ECG) signal is represented by the trained complete dictionaries that contain prototypes or atoms to avoid the limitations of pre-defined dictionaries. The data-driven trained dictionaries simply take the ECG signal as input rather than extracting features to study the set of parameters that yield the most descriptive dictionary. The approach inherently learns the complicated morphological changes in ECG waveform, which is then used to improve the classification. The classification performance was evaluated with ECG data under two different preprocessing environments. In the first category, QT-database is baseline drift corrected with notch filter and it filters the 60 Hz power line noise. In the second category, the data are further filtered using fast moving average smoother. The experimental results on QT database confirm that our proposed algorithm shows a classification accuracy of 92%.

Keywords: Electrocardiogram, dictionary learning, sparse coding, classification.

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Authors: Sh. Hosseini, M. B. Limooei, M. Hossein Zade, E. Askarnia, Z. Asadi

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Manganese steel (Hadfield) is one of the important alloys in industry due to its special properties. High work hardening ability with appropriate toughness and ductility are the properties that caused this alloy to be used in wear resistance parts and in high strength condition. Heat treatment is the main process through which the desired mechanical properties and microstructures are obtained in Hadfield steel. In this study various heat treatment cycles, differing in austenising temperature, time and quenching solution are applied. For this purpose, the same samples of manganese steel was heat treated in 9 different cycles, and then the mechanical properties and microstructures were investigated. Based on the results of the study, the optimum heat treatment cycle was obtained.

Keywords: Manganese steel (Hadfield), heat treatment, austenising temperature, austenising time, quenching solution, mechanical properties.

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Authors: Konstanca Nikolajevic, Nicolas Belanger, David Duvivier, Rabie Ben Atitallah, Abdelhakim Artiba

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Finding the optimal 3D path of an aerial vehicle under flight mechanics constraints is a major challenge, especially when the algorithm has to produce real time results in flight. Kinematics models and Pythagorian Hodograph curves have been widely used in mobile robotics to solve this problematic. The level of difficulty is mainly driven by the number of constraints to be saturated at the same time while minimizing the total length of the path. In this paper, we suggest a pragmatic algorithm capable of saturating at the same time most of dimensioning helicopter 3D trajectories’ constraints like: curvature, curvature derivative, torsion, torsion derivative, climb angle, climb angle derivative, positions. The trajectories generation algorithm is able to generate versatile complex 3D motion primitives feasible by a helicopter with parameterization of the curvature and the climb angle. An upper ”motion primitives’ concatenation” algorithm is presented based. In this article we introduce a new way of designing three-dimensional trajectories based on what we call the ”Dubins gliding symmetry conjecture”. This extremely performing algorithm will be soon integrated to a real-time decisional system dealing with inflight safety issues.

Keywords: Aerial robots, Motion primitives, Robotics.

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Authors: Sarun Phibanchon

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The solitary wave solution of the quadratic nonlinear Schrdinger equation is determined by the iterative method called Petviashvili method. This solution is also used for the initial condition for the time evolution to study the stability analysis. The spectral method is applied for the time evolution.

Keywords: soliton, iterative method, spectral method, plasma

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Authors: Athanasios T. Alexiou, Maria M. Psiha, John A. Rekkas, Panayiotis M. Vlamos

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Mitochondria are dynamic organelles, capable to interact with each other. While the number of mitochondria in a cell varies, their quality and functionality depends on the operation of fusion, fission, motility and mitophagy. Nowadays, several researches declare as an important factor in neurogenerative diseases the disruptions in the regulation of mitochondrial dynamics. In this paper a stochastic model in BioAmbients calculus is presented, concerning mitochondrial fusion and its distribution in the renewal of mitochondrial population in a cell. This model describes the successive and dependent stages of protein synthesis, protein-s activation and merging of two independent mitochondria.

Keywords: Mitochondrial Dynamics, P-Calculus, StochasticModeling.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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Authors: C. Recommandé, J.C. Blind, A. Clavel, R. Gourichon, V. Le Gal

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Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.

Keywords: CC-LM, Central Bank, DSGE, Liquidity Shock, Non-standard Intervention.

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Authors: Qing Dai, Zhengkui Lin, Jiajia Zhang, Yi Qu

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Based on activity method, this paper focuses on morning commuting behavior when commuters travel with autonomous vehicles (AVs). Firstly, a net utility function of commuters is constructed by the activity utility of commuters at home, in car and at workplace, and the disutility of travel time cost and that of schedule delay cost. Then, this net utility function is applied to build an equilibrium model. Finally, under the assumption of constant marginal activity utility, the properties of equilibrium are analyzed. The results show that, in autonomous driving, the starting and ending time of morning peak and the number of commuters who arrive early and late at workplace are the same as those in manual driving. In automatic driving, however, the departure rate of arriving early at workplace is higher than that of manual driving, while the departure rate of arriving late is just the opposite. In addition, compared with manual driving, the departure time of arriving at workplace on time is earlier and the number of people queuing at the bottleneck is larger in automatic driving. However, the net utility of commuters and the total net utility of system in automatic driving are greater than those in manual driving.

Keywords: Autonomous cars, bottleneck model, activity utility, user equilibrium.

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