Search results for: nature design
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5642

Search results for: nature design

2372 Optimization of Process Parameters for Diesters Biolubricant using D-optimal Design

Authors: Bashar Mudhaffar Abdullah, Jumat Salimon

Abstract:

Optimization study of the diesters biolubricant oleyl 9(12)-hydroxy-10(13)-oleioxy-12(9)-octadecanoate (OLHYOOT) was synthesized in the presence of sulfuric acid (SA) as catalyst has been done. Optimum conditions of the experiment to obtain high yield% of OLHYOOT were predicted at ratio of OL/HYOOA of 1:1 g/g, ratio of SA/HYOOA of 0.20:1 g/g, reaction temperature 110 °C and 4.5 h of reaction time. At this condition, the Yield% of OLHYOOT was 88.7. Disappearance of carboxylic acid (C=O) peak has observed by FTIR with appearance ester (C=O) at 1738 cm-1. 1H NMR spectra analyses confirmed the result of OLHYOOT with appearance ester (-CHOCOR) at 4.05ppm and also the 13C-NMR confirmed the result with appearance ester (C=O) peak at 173.93ppm.

Keywords: Esterification, Diesters, Biolubricant, D-optimaldesign.

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2371 Development of a Thrust Measurement System

Authors: S. Jeon, J. Kim, H. Choi

Abstract:

KSLV-I(Korea Space Launch Vehicle-I) is designed as a launch vehicle to enter a 100 kg-class satellite to the LEO(Low Earth Orbit). Attitude angles of the upper-stage, including roll, pitch and yaw are controlled by the cold gas thruster system using nitrogen gas. The cold gas thruster is an actuator in the RCS(Reaction Control System). To design an attitude controller for the upper-stage, thrust measurement in vacuum condition is required. In this paper, the new thrust measurement system and calibration mechanism are developed and measurement errors and signal processing method are presented.

Keywords: cold gas thruster, launch vehicle, thrust measurement, calibration mechanism, signal processing

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2370 Optimal Facility Layout Problem Solution Using Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Maricar G. Misola, Bryan B. Navarro

Abstract:

Facility Layout Problem (FLP) is one of the essential problems of several types of manufacturing and service sector. It is an optimization problem on which the main objective is to obtain the efficient locations, arrangement and order of the facilities. In the literature, there are numerous facility layout problem research presented and have used meta-heuristic approaches to achieve optimal facility layout design. This paper presented genetic algorithm to solve facility layout problem; to minimize total cost function. The performance of the proposed approach was verified and compared using problems in the literature.

Keywords: Facility Layout Problem, Genetic Algorithm, Material Handling Cost, Meta-heuristic Approach.

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2369 The Study of Fabricating the Field Emission Lamps with Carbon nano-Materials

Authors: K. J. Chung, C.C.Chiang, Y.M. Liu, N. W. Pu, M. D. Ger

Abstract:

Fabrication and efficiency enhancement of non-mercury, high efficiency and green field emission lamps using carbon nano-materials such as carbon nanotubes as cathode field emitters was studied. Phosphor was coated on the ITO glass or metal substrates as the anode. The luminescence efficiency enhancement was carried out by upgrading the uniform of the emitters, improving electron and thermal conductivity of the phosphor and the optimization of the design of different cathode/anode configurations. After evaluation of the aforementioned parameters, the luminescence efficiency of the field emission lamps was raised.

Keywords: Field emission lamps, carbon nano-materials, luminescence efficiency

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2368 Design and Implementation of Optimal Winner Determination Algorithm in Combinatorial e- Auctions

Authors: S. Khanpour, A. Movaghar

Abstract:

The one of best robust search technique on large scale search area is heuristic and meta heuristic approaches. Especially in issue that the exploitation of combinatorial status in the large scale search area prevents the solution of the problem via classical calculating methods, so such problems is NP-complete. in this research, the problem of winner determination in combinatorial auctions have been formulated and by assessing older heuristic functions, we solve the problem by using of genetic algorithm and would show that this new method would result in better performance in comparison to other heuristic function such as simulated annealing greedy approach.

Keywords: Bids, genetic algorithm, heuristic, metaheuristic, simulated annealing greedy.

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2367 Discrete Modified Internal Model Control for a nth-order Plant with an Integrator and Dead-time

Authors: Manato Ono, Hiromitsu Ogawa, Naohiro Ban, Yoshihisa Ishida

Abstract:

This paper deals with a design method of a discrete modified Internal Model Control (IMC) for a plant with an integrator and dead time. If there is a load disturbance in the input or output side of the plant, the proposed control system can eliminate the steady-state error caused by it. The disturbance compensator in this method is simple and its order is low regardless of that of a plant. The simulation studies show that the proposed method has superior performance for a load disturbance rejection and robustness.

Keywords: Internal Model Control, Smith Predictor, Dead time, Integrator.

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2366 Grooved Linear Microstrip Patch Antenna Array

Authors: Ayesha Aslam, F A Bhatti

Abstract:

A simple impedance matching technique for inset feed grooved microstrip patch antenna based on the concept of coplanar waveguide feed line has been developed and investigated for a printed antenna at X-Band frequency of 10GHz. The proposed technique has been used in the design of Linear Grooved Microstrip patch antenna array. The characteristics of the antenna are determined in terms of Return loss, VSWR, gain, radiation pattern etc. The measured and simulated results presented are found to be in good agreement.

Keywords: Gain, Microstrip patch, return loss, VSWR, Radiation pattern, CPW Feed, Inset feed.

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2365 Effects of Molybdenum on Phosphorus Concentration in Rice (Oryza sativa L.)

Authors: Hamed Zakikhani, Mohd Khanif Yusop, Amin Soltangheisi

Abstract:

A hydroponic trial was carried out to investigate the effect of molybdenum (Mo) on uptake of phosphorus (P) in different rice cultivars. The experiment was conducted using a randomized complete-block design, with a split-plot arrangement of treatments and three replications. Four rates of Mo (0, 0.01, 0.1 and 1 mg L−1) and five cultivars (MR219, HASHEMI, MR232, FAJRE and MR253) provided the main and sub-plots, respectively. Interaction of molybdenum×variety was significant on shoot phosphorus uptake (p≤0.01). Highest and lowest shoot phosphorus uptake were seen in Mo3V3 (0.6% plant-1) and Mo0V3 (0.14% plant-1) treatments, respectively. Molybdenum did not have a significant effect on root phosphorus content. According to results, application of molybdenum has a synergistic effect on uptake of phosphorus by rice plants.

Keywords: Molybdenum, Phosphorus, Uptake, rice.

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2364 Modeling ICT Adoption Factors for the Preservation of Indigenous Knowledge

Authors: K.M. Ngcobo, S.D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Indigenous Knowledge (IK) has many social and economic benefits. However, IK is at the risk of extinction due to the difficulties to preserve it as most of the IK largely remains undocumented. This study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) for the preservation of IK. The proposed model is based on theoretical frameworks on ICT adoption. It was designed following a literature review of ICT adoption theories for households, and of the factors affecting ICT adoption for IK. The theory that fitted to the best all factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study found that the Model of Adoption of Technology in Households (MATH) is the most suitable theoretical framework for modeling ICT adoption factors for the preservation of IK.

Keywords: Adoption factors, ICT adoption theories, Indigenous knowledge.

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2363 Active Learning in Computer Exercises on Electronics

Authors: Zoja Raud, Valery Vodovozov

Abstract:

Modelling and simulation provide effective way to acquire engineering experience. An active approach to modelling and simulation proposed in the paper involves, beside the compulsory part directed by the traditional step-by-step instructions, the new optional part basing on the human’s habits to design thus stimulating the efforts towards success in active learning. Computer exercises as a part of engineering curriculum incorporate a set of effective activities. In addition to the knowledge acquired in theoretical training, the described educational arrangement helps to develop problem solutions, computation skills, and experimentation performance along with enhancement of practical experience and qualification.

Keywords: Modelling, simulation, engineering education, electronics, active learning.

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2362 Estimating the Technological Deviation Impact on the Value of the Output Parameter of the Induction Converter

Authors: Marinka K. Baghdasaryan, Siranush M. Muradyan, Avgen A. Gasparyan

Abstract:

Based on the experimental data, the impact of resistance and reactance of the winding, as well as the magnetic permeability of the magnetic circuit steel material on the value of the electromotive force of the induction converter is investigated. The obtained results allow estimating the main technological spreads and determining the maximum level of the electromotive force change. By the method of experiment planning, the expression of a polynomial for the electromotive force which can be used to estimate the adequacy of mathematical models to be used at the investigation and design of induction converters is obtained.

Keywords: Induction converter, electromotive force, expectation, technological spread, deviation, planning an experiment, polynomial, confidence level.

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2361 Design of Polyetheretherketone Fixation Plates for Fractured Distal Femur

Authors: Abhishek Soni, Bhagat Singh

Abstract:

In the present study, a methodology has been proposed to treat fracture in the distal part of the femur bone. Initially, bone model has been developed using the computed tomography scan data of the fractured bone. This information has been further used to create polyether ether ketone (PEEK) implant for this fractured bone. Damaged bone and implant models have been assembled. This assembled model has been further analyzed for stress distribution. Moreover, deformation developed was also measured. It has been observed that the stress and deformation developed was not so appreciable. Thus, it proves that the aforementioned procedure can be suitably adopted for the treatment of fractured distal femur bone.

Keywords: Distal femur, fixation plates, PEEK, reverse engineering.

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2360 A Design of Fractional-Order PI Controller with Error Compensation

Authors: Mazidah Tajjudin, Norhashim Mohd Arshad, Ramli Adnan

Abstract:

Fractional-order controller was proven to perform better than the integer-order controller. However, the absence of a pole at origin produced marginal error in fractional-order control system. This study demonstrated the enhancement of the fractionalorder PI over the integer-order PI in a steam temperature control. The fractional-order controller was cascaded with an error compensator comprised of a very small zero and a pole at origin to produce a zero steady-state error for the closed-loop system. Some modification on the error compensator was suggested for different order fractional integrator that can improve the overall phase margin.

Keywords: Fractional-order PI, Ziegler-Nichols tuning, Oustaloup's Recursive Approximation, steam temperature control.

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2359 T Cell Immunity Profile in Pediatric Obesity and Asthma

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Erkut Karasu, Burcu Ozdilek, Burhan Turgut, Birol Topcu, Burcin Nalbantoglu, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

The mechanisms underlying the association between obesity and asthma may be related to a decreased immunological tolerance induced by a defective function of regulatory T cells (Tregs). The aim of this study is to establish the potential link between these diseases and CD4+, CD25+ FoxP3+ Tregs as well as T helper cells (Ths) in children. This is a prospective case control study. Obese (n:40), asthmatic (n:40), asthmatic obese (n:40) and healthy children (n:40), who don't have any acute or chronic diseases, were included in this study. Obese children were evaluated according to WHO criteria. Asthmatic patients were chosen based on GINA criteria. Parents were asked to fill up the questionnaire. Informed consent forms were taken. Blood samples were marked with CD4+, CD25+ and FoxP3+ in order to determine Tregs and Ths by flow cytometric method. Statistical analyses were performed. p≤0.05 was chosen as meaningful threshold. Tregs exhibiting anti-inflammatory nature were significantly lower in obese (0,16%; p≤0,001), asthmatic (0,25%; p≤0,01) and asthmatic obese (0,29%; p≤0,05) groups than the control group (0,38%). Ths were counted higher in asthma group than the control (p≤0,01) and obese (p≤0,001) groups. T cell immunity plays important roles in obesity and asthma pathogeneses. Decreased numbers of Tregs found in obese, asthmatic and asthmatic obese children may help to elucidate some questions in pathophysiology of these diseases. For HOMA-IR levels, any significant difference was not noted between control and obese groups, but statistically higher values were found for obese asthmatics. The values obtained in all groups were found to be below the critical cut off points. This finding has made the statistically significant difference observed between Tregs of obese, asthmatic, obese asthmatic and control groups much more valuable. These findings will be useful in diagnosis and treatment of these disorders and future studies are needed. The production and propagation of Tregs may be promising in alternative asthma and obesity treatments.

Keywords: Asthma, flow cytometry, pediatric obesity, T cells.

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2358 Sliding Mode Control for Active Suspension System with Actuator Delay

Authors: Aziz Sezgin, Yuksel Hacioglu, Nurkan Yagiz

Abstract:

Sliding mode controller for a vehicle active suspension system is designed in this study. The widely used quarter car model is preferred and it is aimed to improve the ride comfort of the passengers. The effect of the actuator time delay, which may arise due to the information processing, sensors or actuator dynamics, is also taken into account during the design of the controller. A sliding mode controller was designed that has taken into account the actuator time delay by using Smith predictor. The successful performance of the designed controller is confirmed via numerical results.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, active suspension system, actuator time delay.

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2357 Learning Objects: A New Paradigm for ELearning Resource Development for Secondary Schools in Tanzania

Authors: S. K. Lujara, M. M. Kissaka, E. P. Bhalalusesa, L. Trojer

Abstract:

The Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), and the Wide World Web (WWW) have fundamentally altered the practice of teaching and learning world wide. Many universities, organizations, colleges and schools are trying to apply the benefits of the emerging ICT. In the early nineties the term learning object was introduced into the instructional technology vernacular; the idea being that educational resources could be broken into modular components for later combination by instructors, learners, and eventually computes into larger structures that would support learning [1]. However in many developing countries, the use of ICT is still in its infancy stage and the concept of learning object is quite new. This paper outlines the learning object design considerations for developing countries depending on learning environment.

Keywords: e-Learning resources, granularity, learning objects, secondary schools.

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2356 The Emergence of Construction Mafia in South Africa: The Implication on the Construction Industry

Authors: Thandokazi Nyangiwe, Christopher Amoah, Charles P. Mukumba

Abstract:

The South African construction sector is threatened by emerging black business forums called construction mafias. The emergence of the construction mafia has culminated in the disruptions and abandonment of construction sites resulting in the loss of jobs for construction workers. The paper examines the origin of construction mafias and their impact on the construction sector, including the potential ways to cope with their operations. A qualitative research approach was adopted for this study using open-ended interview questions to gather information from 30 key construction industry stakeholders, including contractors, subcontractors, consultants, and the construction project communities. Content and thematic analyses were used to analyses the data collected. The findings suggest that most participants do not fully understand the existence and operations of construction mafias in the construction industry. Construction mafias claim to be part of the local business forums. They disrupt construction projects and demand a certain amount, usually 30% of the construction value. Construction mafias frequently resort to intimidation and violence if their demands are unmet. Their operations have resulted in delayed completion of construction projects, abandonment of projects, and loss of income for the contractor and jobs for the construction workers. The interviews were limited to construction stakeholders. Because of the nature of the mafias’ operations, they could not be accessed for interviews for fear of being identified because of the connotation attached to their role as construction mafias. Construction project owners face disruptions of projects resulting in loss of equipment, materials, and income. Therefore, there is a need to sensitize the construction stakeholders in the construction industry regarding the existence and operations of the construction mafia and the implications on construction project performance and delivery. The findings will give insight into the operations of the construction mafias in the South African construction industry, which has caused disruptions in construction project sites. Stakeholders must find solutions to address the construction mafias’ disruptive actions on construction projects. The study presents an initial inquiry that will come up with how to manage and cope with the growing operations of construction mafias in the South African construction industry.

Keywords: Black business forums, construction mafia, South African construction industry.

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2355 Are Lecturers- Ready for Usage of Mobile Technology for Teaching?

Authors: Norazah Mohd Suki, Norbayah Mohd Suki

Abstract:

Descriptive statistics was performed with the aim to achieve research objective of to investigate lecturers- usage of the mobile technology for teaching. A representative sample of 20 lecturers from the Faculty of Industrial Art & Design Technology of Universiti Industri Selangor (UNISEL), Malaysia was selected as the respondents. The result attested that lecturers fully accept the concept of mobility in learning and game play is appealing concept to support classroom learning. Subsequently, analogous experience on small size of keypad, screen resolution, and navigation could be the major problematic factors to students and affect their mobile learning process. Recommendation for future research is also presented.

Keywords: Academics, Mobile e-learning, Mobile technology, Readiness.

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2354 Design and Implementation of an Intelligent System for Detection of Hazardous Gases using PbPc Sensor Array

Authors: Mahmoud Z. Iskandarani, Nidal F. Shilbayeh

Abstract:

The voltage/current characteristics and the effect of NO2 gas on the electrical conductivity of a PbPc gas sensor array is investigated. The gas sensor is manufactured using vacuum deposition of gold electrodes on sapphire substrate with the leadphathalocyanine vacuum sublimed on the top of the gold electrodes. Two versions of the PbPc gas sensor array are investigated. The tested types differ in the gap sizes between the deposited gold electrodes. The sensors are tested at different temperatures to account for conductivity changes as the molecular adsorption/desorption rate is affected by heat. The obtained results found to be encouraging as the sensors shoed stability and sensitivity towards low concentration of applied NO2 gas.

Keywords: Intelligent System, PbPc, Gas Sensor, Hardware, Software, Neural.

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2353 The Effect of the Hemispheres of the Brain and the Tone of Voice on Persuasion

Authors: Rica Jell de Laza, Jose Alberto Fernandez, Andrea Marie Mendoza, Qristin Jeuel Regalado

Abstract:

This study investigates whether participants experience different levels of persuasion depending on the hemisphere of the brain and the tone of voice. The experiment was performed on 96 volunteer undergraduate students taking an introductory course in psychology. The participants took part in a 2 x 3 (Hemisphere: left, right x Tone of Voice: positive, neutral, negative) Mixed Factorial Design to measure how much a person was persuaded. Results showed that the hemisphere of the brain and the tone of voice used did not significantly affect the results individually. Furthermore, there was no interaction effect. Therefore, the hemispheres of the brain and the tone of voice employed play insignificant roles in persuading a person.

Keywords: Dichotic listening, brain hemisphere, tone of voice, persuasion.

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2352 Combined Fuzzy and Predictive Controller for Unity Power Factor Converter

Authors: Abdelhalim Kessal

Abstract:

This paper treats a design of combined control of a single phase power factor correction (PFC). The strategy of the proposed control is based on two parts, the first, for the outer loop (DC output regulated voltage), and the second govern the input current of the converter in order to achieve a sinusoidal form in phase with the grid voltage. Two kinds of regulators are used, Fuzzy controller for the outer loop and predictive controller for the inner loop. The controllers are verified and discussed through simulation under MATLAB/Simulink platform. Also an experimental confirmation is applied. Results present a high dynamic performance under various parameters changes.

Keywords: Boost converter, harmonic distortion, Fuzzy, prediction, unity power factor.

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2351 Acquiring Contour Following Behaviour in Robotics through Q-Learning and Image-based States

Authors: Carlos V. Regueiro, Jose E. Domenech, Roberto Iglesias, Jose L. Correa

Abstract:

In this work a visual and reactive contour following behaviour is learned by reinforcement. With artificial vision the environment is perceived in 3D, and it is possible to avoid obstacles that are invisible to other sensors that are more common in mobile robotics. Reinforcement learning reduces the need for intervention in behaviour design, and simplifies its adjustment to the environment, the robot and the task. In order to facilitate its generalisation to other behaviours and to reduce the role of the designer, we propose a regular image-based codification of states. Even though this is much more difficult, our implementation converges and is robust. Results are presented with a Pioneer 2 AT on a Gazebo 3D simulator.

Keywords: Image-based State Codification, Mobile Robotics, ReinforcementLearning, Visual Behaviour.

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2350 Service Identification Approach to SOA Development

Authors: Nafise Fareghzadeh

Abstract:

Service identification is one of the main activities in the modeling of a service-oriented solution, and therefore errors made during identification can flow down through detailed design and implementation activities that may necessitate multiple iterations, especially in building composite applications. Different strategies exist for how to identify candidate services that each of them has its own benefits and trade offs. The approach presented in this paper proposes a selective identification of services approach, based on in depth business process analysis coupled with use cases and existing assets analysis and goal service modeling. This article clearly emphasizes the key activities need for the analysis and service identification to build a optimized service oriented architecture. In contrast to other approaches this article mentions some best practices and steps, wherever appropriate, to point out the vagueness involved in service identification.

Keywords: SOA, service identification, service taxonomy, service layer.

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2349 Using Finite Element Method for Determination of Poles Number in Optimal Design of Linear Motor

Authors: Abdolamir Nekoubin

Abstract:

One of Effective parameters on the performance of linear induction motors is number of poles which must be selected and optimized to increase power efficiency and motor performance significantly. In this paper a double-sided linear induction motor with different poles number by using MAXWELL3D software is designed and with finite element method is analyzed electromagnetically. Then for dynamic simulation, linear motor by using MATLAB software is simulated. The results show that by adding poles number, system time response is increased and motor after more time reaches to steady state. Also propulsion force of motor is increased.

Keywords: Linear motor, poles number, finite element method.

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2348 Sampled-Data Model Predictive Tracking Control for Mobile Robot

Authors: Wookyong Kwon, Sangmoon Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, a sampled-data model predictive tracking control method is presented for mobile robots which is modeled as constrained continuous-time linear parameter varying (LPV) systems. The presented sampled-data predictive controller is designed by linear matrix inequality approach. Based on the input delay approach, a controller design condition is derived by constructing a new Lyapunov function. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Keywords: Model predictive control, sampled-data control, linear parameter varying systems, LPV.

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2347 Design of a Drift Assist Control System Applied to Remote Control Car

Authors: Sheng-Tse Wu, Wu-Sung Yao

Abstract:

In this paper, a drift assist control system is proposed for remote control (RC) cars to get the perfect drift angle. A steering servo control scheme is given powerfully to assist the drift driving. A gyroscope sensor is included to detect the machine's tail sliding and to achieve a better automatic counter-steering to prevent RC car from spinning. To analysis tire traction and vehicle dynamics is used to obtain the dynamic track of RC cars. It comes with a control gain to adjust counter-steering amount according to the sensor condition. An illustrated example of 1:10 RC drift car is given and the real-time control algorithm is realized by Arduino Uno.

Keywords: Drift assist control system, remote control cars, gyroscope, vehicle dynamics.

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2346 An Empirical Study of the Expectation- Perception Gap of I.S. Development

Authors: Linda, Sau-ling Lai

Abstract:

This paper adopts a notion of expectation-perception gap of systems users as information systems (IS) failure. Problems leading to the expectation-perception gap are identified and modelled as five interrelated discrepancies or gaps throughout the process of information systems development (ISD). It describes an empirical study on how systems developers and users perceive the size of each gap and the extent to which each problematic issue contributes to the gap. The key to achieving success in ISD is to keep the expectationperception gap closed by closing all 5 pertaining gaps. The gap model suggests that most factors in IS failure are related to organizational, cognitive and social aspects of information systems design. Organization requirement analysis, being the weakest link of IS development, is particularly worthy of investigation.

Keywords: Information Systems Development, Expectation- Perception Gap, Gap Analysis, Organization Analysis.

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2345 Tuning a Fractional Order PID Controller with Lead Compensator in Frequency Domain

Authors: Tahmine. V. Moghaddam, N. Bigdeli, K. Afshar

Abstract:

To achieve the desired specifications of gain and phase margins for plants with time-delay that stabilized with FO-PID controller a lead compensator is designed. At first the range of controlled system stability based on stability boundary criteria is determined. Using stability boundary locus method in frequency domain the fractional order controller parameters are tuned and then with drawing bode diagram in frequency domain accessing to desired gain and phase margin are shown. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the shapes of the stabilizing region and to show the design procedure.

Keywords: Fractional controller, Lead compensator, Stabilityregions, Stability boundary locus

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2344 Geotechnical Characteristics of Miocenemarl in the Region of Medea North-South Highway, Algeria

Authors: Y. Yongli, M. H. Aissa

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper aims for a geotechnical analysis based on experimental physical and mechanical characteristics of Miocene marl situated at Medea region in Algeria. More than 150 soil samples were taken in the investigation part of the North-South Highway which extends over than 53 km from Chiffa in the North to Berrouaghia in the South of Algeria. The analysis of data in terms of Atterberg limits, plasticity index, and clay content reflects an acceptable correlation justified by a high coefficient of regression which was compared with the previous works in the region. Finally, approximated equations that serve as a guideline for geotechnical design locally have been suggested.

Keywords: Correlation, geotechnical properties, Miocene marl, north-south highway.

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2343 A Posterior Predictive Model-Based Control Chart for Monitoring Healthcare

Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

Abstract:

Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: Average run length, Bernoulli CUSUM chart, beta binomial posterior predictive distribution, clinical indicator, health care organization, highest posterior density interval.

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