Search results for: disease severity
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4310

Search results for: disease severity

4160 Efficacy and Safety of Electrical Vestibular Stimulation on Adults with Symptoms of Insomnia: A Double-Blind, Randomized, Sham-Controlled Trial

Authors: Teris Cheung, Joyce Yuen Ting Lam, Kwan Hin Fong, Calvin Pak-Wing Cheng, Julie Sittlington, Yu-Tao Xiang, Tim Man Ho Li

Abstract:

Insomnia is one of the most common health problems in the general population. Insomnia can be acute, intermittent, and become chronic, often due to comorbidity with other physical and mental health conditions. Although there are conventional pharmaceutical and psychotherapeutic treatments to treat symptoms of insomnia, however; there is no robust and novel randomized controlled trial (RCT) using transdermal neurostimulation on individuals with insomnia symptoms. This gives us the impetus to execute the first nationwide RCT. Aim: To evaluate the efficacy of Electrical Vestibular Stimulation (VeNS) on individuals with insomnia in Hong Kong. Design: This study was a two-armed, double blinded, randomized, sham-controlled trial. Sampling: 60 community-dwelling adults aged 18 and 60 years with moderate insomnia symptoms or above (Insomnia Severity Index > 14) were recruited. All subjects were computerized randomized into either the active VeNS group or the sham VeNS group on a 1:1 ratio. Intervention: All participants received a home-use VeNS device and used 30-min VeNS sessions during five consecutive days across a 4-week period (total treatment hours: 10). Baseline measurements and post-VeNS evaluation of the psychological outcomes, including 1) insomnia severity, 2) sleep quality, and 3) quality of life were investigated. The short-and long-term sustainability of the VeNS intervention was assessed immediately after poststim and at a 1-month and 3-month follow-up period. Data analysis: A mixed GEE model was used to analyze the repeated measures data. Missing data were managed by multiple imputations. The level of significance was set to p < 0.05. Significance of the study: This is the first trial to examine the efficacy and safety of VeNS among adults with insomnia symptoms in Hong Kong. Findings that emerged were used to determine whether this VeNS device can be considered a self-help technological device to reduce the severity of insomnia in the community setting and to reduce the global disease burden. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT04452981.

Keywords: adults, insomnia, neuromodulation, rct, vestibular stimulation

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4159 Assessing Prescribed Burn Severity in the Wetlands of the Paraná River -Argentina

Authors: Virginia Venturini, Elisabet Walker, Aylen Carrasco-Millan

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Latin America stands at the front of climate change impacts, with forecasts projecting accelerated temperature and sea level rises compared to the global average. These changes are set to trigger a cascade of effects, including coastal retreat, intensified droughts in some nations, and heightened flood risks in others. In Argentina, wildfires historically affected forests, but since 2004, wetland fires have emerged as a pressing concern. By 2021, the wetlands of the Paraná River faced a dangerous situation. In fact, during the year 2021, a high-risk scenario was naturally formed in the wetlands of the Paraná River, in Argentina. Very low water levels in the rivers, and excessive standing dead plant material (fuel), triggered most of the fires recorded in the vast wetland region of the Paraná during 2020-2021. During 2008 fire events devastated nearly 15% of the Paraná Delta, and by late 2021 new fires burned more than 300,000 ha of these same wetlands. Therefore, the goal of this work is to explore remote sensing tools to monitor environmental conditions and the severity of prescribed burns in the Paraná River wetlands. Thus, two prescribed burning experiments were carried out in the study area (31°40’ 05’’ S, 60° 34’ 40’’ W) during September 2023. The first experiment was carried out on Sept. 13th, in a plot of 0.5 ha which dominant vegetation were Echinochloa sp., and Thalia, while the second trial was done on Sept 29th in a plot of 0.7 ha, next to the first burned parcel; here the dominant vegetation species were Echinochloa sp. and Solanum glaucophyllum. Field campaigns were conducted between September 8th and November 8th to assess the severity of the prescribed burns. Flight surveys were conducted utilizing a DJI® Inspire II drone equipped with a Sentera® NDVI camera. Then, burn severity was quantified by analyzing images captured by the Sentera camera along with data from the Sentinel 2 satellite mission. This involved subtracting the NDVI images obtained before and after the burn experiments. The results from both data sources demonstrate a highly heterogeneous impact of fire within the patch. Mean severity values obtained with drone NDVI images of the first experience were about 0.16 and 0.18 with Sentinel images. For the second experiment, mean values obtained with the drone were approximately 0.17 and 0.16 with Sentinel images. Thus, most of the pixels showed low fire severity and only a few pixels presented moderated burn severity, based on the wildfire scale. The undisturbed plots maintained consistent mean NDVI values throughout the experiments. Moreover, the severity assessment of each experiment revealed that the vegetation was not completely dry, despite experiencing extreme drought conditions.

Keywords: prescribed-burn, severity, NDVI, wetlands

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4158 Synthesis of Metal Curcumin Complexes with Iron(III) and Manganese(II): The Effects on Alzheimer's Disease

Authors: Emel Yildiz, Nurcan Biçer, Fazilet Aksu, Arash Alizadeh Yegani

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Plants provide the wealth of bioactive compounds, which exert a substantial strategy for the treatment of neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease. Recently, a lot of studies have explored the medicinal properties of curcumin, including antitumoral, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, antiviral, and anti-Alzheimer's disease effects. Metal complexes of curcumin (1,7-bis(4-hydroxy-3-methoxyphenyl)-1,6-heptadiene-3,5-dione) were synthesized with Mn(II) and Fe(III). The structures of synthesized metal complexes have been characterized by using spectroscopic and analytic methods such as elemental analysis, magnetic susceptibility, FT-IR, AAS, TG and argentometric titration. It was determined that the complexes have octahedral geometry. The effects of the metal complexes on the disorder of memory, which is an important symptom of Alzheimer's Disease were studied on lab rats with Plus-Maze Tests at Behavioral Pharmacology Laboratory.

Keywords: curcumin, Mn(II), Fe(III), Alzheimer disease, beta amyloid 25-35

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4157 Juvenile Paget’s Disease(JPD) of Bone

Authors: Aftab Ahmed, Ghulam Mehboob

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The object of presentation is to highlight the importance of condition which is a very rare genetic disorder although Paget’s disease is common but its juvenile type is very rare and a late presentation due to very slow onset and lack of earlier standard management. We present a case of 25 years old male with a chronic history of bone pain and a slow onset of mild swelling, later on diagnosed as juvenile Paget disease of bone. Rarity of this condition with inaccessibility for standard health treatment can lead to a significant delay in presentation and its management. There have been 50 reported cases worldwide according to Genetic Home Reference. There is increased osteoclastic activity along with osteoblastic activity related to gene alteration and osteoprotegrin deficiency. Morbidity of disease is very significant which lead children to become immobilize.

Keywords: juvenile, Paget’s disease, bone, Northern Area of Pakistan

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4156 Modelling Operational Risk Using Extreme Value Theory and Skew t-Copulas via Bayesian Inference

Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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4155 When Conducting an Analysis of Workplace Incidents, It Is Imperative to Meticulously Calculate Both the Frequency and Severity of Injuries Sustain

Authors: Arash Yousefi

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Experts suggest that relying exclusively on parameters to convey a situation or establish a condition may not be adequate. Assessing and appraising incidents in a system based on accident parameters, such as accident frequency, lost workdays, or fatalities, may not always be precise and occasionally erroneous. The frequency rate of accidents is a metric that assesses the correlation between the number of accidents causing work-time loss due to injuries and the total working hours of personnel over a year. Traditionally, this has been calculated based on one million working hours, but the American Occupational Safety and Health Organization has updated its standards. The new coefficient of 200/000 working hours is now used to compute the frequency rate of accidents. It's crucial to ensure that the total working hours of employees are equally represented when calculating individual event and incident numbers. The accident severity rate is a metric used to determine the amount of time lost or wasted during a given period, often a year, in relation to the total number of working hours. It measures the percentage of work hours lost or wasted compared to the total number of useful working hours, which provides valuable insight into the number of days lost or wasted due to work-related incidents for each working hour. Calculating the severity of an incident can be difficult if a worker suffers permanent disability or death. To determine lost days, coefficients specified in the "tables of days equivalent to OSHA or ANSI standards" for disabling injuries are used. The accident frequency coefficient denotes the rate at which accidents occur, while the accident severity coefficient specifies the extent of damage and injury caused by these accidents. These coefficients are crucial in accurately assessing the magnitude and impact of accidents.

Keywords: incidents, safety, analysis, frequency, severity, injuries, determine

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4154 Stability Analysis of Endemic State of Modelling the Effect of Vaccination and Novel Quarantine-Adjusted Incidence on the Spread of Newcastle Disease Virus

Authors: Nurudeen Oluwasola Lasisi, Abdulkareem Afolabi Ibrahim

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Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of modeling the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. We do a comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate, and novel quarantine adjusted incident rate in the models. The dynamics of the models yield disease free and endemic equilibrium states. The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact for the individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models, and we found that stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, endemic state, mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

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4153 Visual Improvement with Low Vision Aids in Children with Stargardt’s Disease

Authors: Anum Akhter, Sumaira Altaf

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Purpose: To study the effect of low vision devices i.e. telescope and magnifying glasses on distance visual acuity and near visual acuity of children with Stargardt’s disease. Setting: Low vision department, Alshifa Trust Eye Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Methods: 52 children having Stargardt’s disease were included in the study. All children were diagnosed by pediatrics ophthalmologists. Comprehensive low vision assessment was done by me in Low vision clinic. Visual acuity was measured using ETDRS chart. Refraction and other supplementary tests were performed. Children with Stargardt’s disease were provided with different telescopes and magnifying glasses for improving far vision and near vision. Results: Out of 52 children, 17 children were males and 35 children were females. Distance visual acuity and near visual acuity improved significantly with low vision aid trial. All children showed visual acuity better than 6/19 with a telescope of higher magnification. Improvement in near visual acuity was also significant with magnifying glasses trial. Conclusions: Low vision aids are useful for improvement in visual acuity in children. Children with Stargardt’s disease who are having a problem in education and daily life activities can get help from low vision aids.

Keywords: Stargardt, s disease, low vision aids, telescope, magnifiers

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4152 Numerical Simulation of the Fractional Flow Reserve in the Coronary Artery with Serial Stenoses of Varying Configuration

Authors: Mariia Timofeeva, Andrew Ooi, Eric K. W. Poon, Peter Barlis

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Atherosclerotic plaque build-up, commonly known as stenosis, limits blood flow and hence oxygen and nutrient supplies to the heart muscle. Thus, assessment of its severity is of great interest to health professionals. Numerical simulation of the fractional flow reserve (FFR) has proved to be well correlated with invasively measured FFR used for physiological assessment of the severity of coronary stenosis in arteries. Atherosclerosis may impact the diseased artery in several locations causing serial stenoses, which is a complicated subset of coronary artery disease that requires careful treatment planning. However, hemodynamic of the serial sequential stenoses in coronary arteries has not been extensively studied. The hemodynamics of the serial stenoses is complex because the stenoses in the series interact and affect the flow through each other. To address this, serial stenoses in a 3.4 mm left anterior descending (LAD) artery are examined in this study. Two diameter stenoses (DS) are considered, 30 and 50 percent of the reference diameter. Serial stenoses configurations are divided into three groups based on the order of the stenoses in the series, spacing between them, and deviation of the stenoses’ symmetry (eccentricity). A patient-specific pulsatile waveform is used in the simulations. Blood flow within the stenotic artery is assumed to be laminar, Newtonian, and incompressible. Results for the FFR are reported. Based on the simulation results, it can be deduced that the larger drop in pressure (smaller value of the FFR) is expected when the percentage of the second stenosis in the series is bigger. Varying the distance between the stenoses affects the location of the maximum drop in the pressure, while the minimal FFR in the artery remains unchanged. Eccentric serial stenoses are characterized by a noticeably larger decrease in pressure through the stenoses and by the development of the chaotic flow downstream of the stenoses. The largest drop in the pressure (about 4% difference compared to the axisymmetric case) is obtained for the serial stenoses, where both the stenoses are highly eccentric with the centerlines deflected to the different sides of the LAD. In conclusion, varying configuration of the sequential serial stenoses results in a different distribution of FFR through the LAD. Results presented in this study provide insight into the clinical assessment of the severity of the coronary serial stenoses, which is proved to depend on the relative position of the stenoses and the deviation of the stenoses’ symmetry.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, coronary artery, fractional flow reserve, serial stenoses

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4151 Rituximab Therapy for Musculoskeletal Involvement in Systemic Sclerosis

Authors: Liudmila Garzanova, Lidia Ananyeva, Olga Koneva, Olga Ovsyannikova, Oxana Desinova, Mayya Starovoytova, Rushana Shayahmetova, Anna Khelkovskaya-Sergeeva

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Objectives. There is very few data on changes of the musculoskeletal manifestations (artritis, arthralgia, muscle weakness, etc.) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) on rituximab (RTX) therapy. The aim of our study was to assess the severity of the musculoskeletal involvement in SSc patients (pts) and its changes during RTX therapy. Methods. Our study included 103 pts with SSc. The mean followup period was 12.6±10.7 months. The mean age was 47±12.9 years, female-87 pts (84%), the diffuse cutaneous subset of the disease had 55 pts (53%). The mean disease duration was 6.2±5.5 years. All pts had interstitial lung disease (ILD) and were positive for ANA, 67% of them were positive for antitopoisomerase-1. All patients received prednisolone at a dose of 11.3±4.5 mg/day, immunosuppressants at inclusion received 47% of them. Pts received RTX due to the ineffectiveness of previous therapy for ILD. The cumulative mean dose of RTX was 1.7±0.6 grams. Arthritis was observed in 22 pts (21%), arthralgias in 47 pts (46%). Muscle weakness was observed in 17 pts (17%). Tendon friction rubs was established in 7 pts (7%). The results at baseline and at the end of the follow up are presented in the form of mean values. Results. There was an improvement of all outcome parameters and musculoskeletal manifestations on RTX therapy. There was a decrease in the number of pts with arthritis from 22 (21%) to 10 (9%), a decrease in the number of pts with arthralgias from 47 (46%) to 31 (30%). The number of pts with muscle weakness decreased from 17 (17%) to 7 (7%). The number of pts with tendon friction rubs decreased from 7 (7%) to 3 (3%). The creatine phosphokinase decreased from 365.5±186 to 70.8±50.4 (p=0.00006). The C-reactive protein (CRP) decreased from 23.2±31.3 to 8.62±7.4 (p=0.001). The dose of prednisolone was reduced from 11.3±4.5 to 9.8±3.5 mg/day (p=0.0004). Conclusion. In our study, musculoskeletal involvement was detected in almost half of the patients with SSc-ILD. There was an improvement of musculoskeletal manifestations despite a small cumulative dose of RTX. We also managed to reduce the dose of glucocorticosteroids. The improvement of musculoskeletal manifestations was accompanied by a decrease in laboratory parameters - creatine phosphokinase and CRP. RTX is effective option for treatment of musculoskeletal manifestations in SSc.

Keywords: arthritis, musculoskeletal involvement, systemic sclerosis, rituximab

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4150 Trend of Foot and Mouth Disease and Adopted Control Measures in Limpopo Province during the Period 2014 to 2020

Authors: Temosho Promise Chuene, T. Chitura

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Background: Foot and mouth disease is a real challenge in South Africa. The disease is a serious threat to the viability of livestock farming initiatives and affects local and international livestock trade. In Limpopo Province, the Kruger National Park and other game reserves are home to the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), a notorious reservoir of the picornavirus, which causes foot and mouth disease. Out of the virus’s seven (7) distinct serotypes, Southern African Territories (SAT) 1, 2, and 3 are commonly endemic in South Africa. The broad objective of the study was to establish the trend of foot and mouth disease in Limpopo Province over a seven-year period (2014-2020), as well as the adoption and comprehensive reporting of the measures that are taken to contain disease outbreaks in the study area. Methods: The study used secondary data from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) on reported cases of foot and mouth disease in South Africa. Descriptive analysis (frequencies and percentages) and Analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used to present and analyse the data. Result: The year 2020 had the highest prevalence of foot and mouth disease (3.72%), while 2016 had the lowest prevalence (0.05%). Serotype SAT 2 was the most endemic, followed by SAT 1. Findings from the study demonstrated the seasonal nature of foot and mouth disease in the study area, as most disease cases were reported in the summer seasons. Slaughter of diseased and at-risk animals was the only documented disease control strategy, and information was missing for some of the years. Conclusion: The study identified serious underreporting of the adopted control strategies following disease outbreaks. Adoption of comprehensive disease control strategies coupled with thorough reporting can help to reduce outbreaks of foot and mouth disease and prevent losses to the livestock farming sector of South Africa and Limpopo Province in particular.

Keywords: livestock farming, African buffalo, prevalence, serotype, slaughter

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4149 Role of Interlukin-18 in Primary Knee Osteoarthritis: Clinical, Laboratory and Radiological Study

Authors: Ibrahim Khalil Ibrahim, Enas Mohamed Shahine, Abeer Shawky El Hadedy, Emmanuel Kamal Aziz Saba, Ghada Salah Attia Hussein

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Osteoarthritis (OA) is a multifactorial disease characterized by a progressive degradation of articular cartilage and is the leading cause of disability in elderly persons. IL-18 contributes to the destruction of cartilage and bone in the disease process of arthritis. The aim of the study was to investigate the role of IL-18 in primary knee OA patients. Serum level of IL-18 was assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 30 primary knee OA patients and compared to 20 age and gender-matched healthy volunteers as a control group. Radiographic severity of OA was assessed by Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) global scale. Pain, stiffness and functional assessment were done using Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC). OA patients had significantly higher serum IL-18 level than in control group (420.93 ± 345.4 versus 151.03 ± 144.16 pg/ml, P=0.001). Serum level of IL-18 was positively correlated with KL global scale (P=0.001). There were no statistically significant correlations between serum level of IL-18 and pain, stiffness, function subscales and total WOMAC index scores among the studied patients. In conclusions, IL-18 has a role in the pathogenesis of OA and it is positively correlated with the radiographic damage of OA.

Keywords: Interlukin-18, knee osteoarthritis, primary osteoarthritis, WOMAC scale

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4148 Management of Hypoglycemia in Von Gierke’s Disease

Authors: Makda Aamir, Sood Aayushi, Syed Omar, Nihan Khuld, Iskander Peter, Ijaz Naeem, Sharma Nishant

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Introduction:Glycogen Storage Disease Type-1 (GSD-1) is a rare phenomenon primarily affecting the liver and kidney. Excessive accumulation of glycogen and fat in liver, kidney, and intestinal mucosa is noted in patients with deficiency of Glucose-6-phosphatase deficiency. Patients with GSD-1 have a wide spectrum of symptoms, including hepatomegaly, hypoglycemia, lactic acidemia, hyperlipidemia, hyperuricemia, and growth retardation. Age of onset, rate of disease progression and its severity is variable in this disease.Case:An 18-year-old male with GSD-1a, Von Gierke’s disease, hyperuricemia, and hypertension presented to the hospital with nausea and vomiting. The patient followed an hourly cornstarch regimen during the day and overnight through infusion via a PEG tube. The complaints started at work, where he was unable to tolerate oral cornstarch. He washemodynamically stable on arrival. ABG showed pH 7.372, PaCO2 30.3, and PaO2 92.2. WBC 16.80, K+ 5.8, HCO3 13, BUN 28, Cr 2.2, Glucose 60, AST 115, ALT 128, Cholesterol 352, Triglycerides >1000, Uric Acid 10.6, Lactic Acid 11.8 which trended down to 8.0. CT abdomen showed hepatomegaly and fatty infiltration with the PEG tube in place.He was admitted to the ICU and started on D5NS for hypoglycemia and lactic acidosis. Per request by the patient’s pediatrician, he was transitioned to IV D10/0.45NS at 110mL/Hr to maintain blood glucose above 75 mg/L. Frequent accuchecks were done till he could tolerate his dietary regimen with cornstarch. Lactic acid downtrend to 2.9, and accuchecks ranged between 100-110. Cr improved to 1.3, and his home medications (Allopurinol and Lisinopril) were resumed. He was discharged in stable condition with plans for further genetic therapy work up.Discussion:Mainstay therapy for Von Gierke’s Disease is the prevention of metabolic derangements for which dietary and lifestyle changes are recommended. A low fructose and sucrose diet is recommended by limiting the intake of galactose and lactose to one serving per day. Hypoglycemia treatment in such patients is two-fold, utilizing both quick and stable release sources. Cornstarch has been one such therapy since the 1980s; its slow digestion provides a steady release of glucose over a longer period of time as compared with other sources of carbohydrates. Dosing guidelines vary from age to age and person to person, but it is highly recommended to check BG levels frequently to maintain a BG > 70 mg/dL. Associated high levels of triglycerides and cholesterol can be treated with statins, fibrates, etc. Conclusion:The management of hypoglycemia in GSD 1 disease presents various obstacles which could prove to be fatal. Due to the deficiency of G6P, treatment with a specialized hypoglycemic regimen is warranted. A D10 ½ NS infusion can be used to maintain blood sugar levels as well as correct metabolic or lactate imbalances. Infusion should be gradually weaned off after the patient can tolerate oral feeds as this can help prevent the risk of hypoglycemia and other derangements. Further research is needed in regards to these patients for more sustainable regimens.

Keywords: von gierke, glycogen storage disease, hypoglycemia, genetic disease

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4147 Parkinson's Disease Gene Identification Using Physicochemical Properties of Amino Acids

Authors: Priya Arora, Ashutosh Mishra

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Gene identification, towards the pursuit of mutated genes, leading to Parkinson’s disease, puts forward a challenge towards proactive cure of the disorder itself. Computational analysis is an effective technique for exploring genes in the form of protein sequences, as the theoretical and manual analysis is infeasible. The limitations and effectiveness of a particular computational method are entirely dependent on the previous data that is available for disease identification. The article presents a sequence-based classification method for the identification of genes responsible for Parkinson’s disease. During the initiation phase, the physicochemical properties of amino acids transform protein sequences into a feature vector. The second phase of the method employs Jaccard distances to select negative genes from the candidate population. The third phase involves artificial neural networks for making final predictions. The proposed approach is compared with the state of art methods on the basis of F-measure. The results confirm and estimate the efficiency of the method.

Keywords: disease gene identification, Parkinson’s disease, physicochemical properties of amino acid, protein sequences

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4146 Detection of Chaos in General Parametric Model of Infectious Disease

Authors: Javad Khaligh, Aghileh Heydari, Ali Akbar Heydari

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Mathematical epidemiological models for the spread of disease through a population are used to predict the prevalence of a disease or to study the impacts of treatment or prevention measures. Initial conditions for these models are measured from statistical data collected from a population since these initial conditions can never be exact, the presence of chaos in mathematical models has serious implications for the accuracy of the models as well as how epidemiologists interpret their findings. This paper confirms the chaotic behavior of a model for dengue fever and SI by investigating sensitive dependence, bifurcation, and 0-1 test under a variety of initial conditions.

Keywords: epidemiological models, SEIR disease model, bifurcation, chaotic behavior, 0-1 test

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4145 ANA Negative but FANA Positive Patients with Clinical Symptoms of Rheumatic Disease: The Suggestion for Clinicians

Authors: Abdolreza Esmaeilzadeh, Mehri Mirzaei

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Objective: Rheumatic disease is a chronic disease that causes pain, stiffness, swelling and limited motion and function of many joints. RA is the most common form of autoimmune arthritis, affecting more than 1.3 million Americans. Of these, about 75% are women. Materials and Methods: This study was formed due to the misconception about ANA test, which is frequently performed with methods based upon solid phase as ELISA. This experiment was conducted on 430 patients, with clinical symptoms that are likely affected with rheumatic diseases, simultaneously by means of ANA and FANA. Results: 36 cases (8.37%) of patients, despite positive ANA, have demonstrated negative results via Indirect Immunofluorescence Assay (IIFA), (false positive). 116 cases (27%) have demonstrated negative ANA results, by means of the ELISA technique, although they had positive IIFA results. Conclusion: Other advantages of IIFA are antibody titration and specific pattern detection that have the capability of distinguishing positive dsDNA results. According to the restrictions and false negative cases, in patients, IIFA test is highly recommended for these disease's diagnosis.

Keywords: autoimmune disease, IIFA, EIA, rheumatic disease

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4144 Use of Beta Blockers in Patients with Reactive Airway Disease and Concomitant Hypertension or Ischemic Heart Disease

Authors: Bharti Chogtu Magazine, Dhanya Soodana Mohan, Shruti Nair, Tanwi Trushna

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The study was undertaken to analyse the cardiovascular drugs being prescribed in patients with concomitant reactive airway disease and hypertension or ischemic heart diseases (IHD). Also, the effect of beta-blockers on respiratory symptoms in these patients was recorded. Data was collected from medical records of patients with reactive airway disease and concomitant hypertension and IHD. It included demographic details of the patients, diagnosis, drugs prescribed and the patient outcome regarding the exacerbation of asthma symptoms with intake of beta blockers. Medical records of 250 patients were analysed.13% of patients were prescribed beta-blockers. 12% of hypertensive patients, 16.6% of IHD patients and 20% of patients with concomitant hypertension and IHD were prescribed beta blockers. Of the 33 (13%) patients who were on beta-blockers, only 3 patients had an exacerbation of bronchial asthma symptoms. Cardioselective beta-blockers under supervision appear to be safe in patients with reactive airway disease and concomitant hypertension and IHD.

Keywords: beta blockers, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, asthma

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4143 Bacillus thuringiensis CHGP12 Uses a Multifaceted Strategy to Suppress Fusarium Wilt of Chickpea and to Enhance the Total Biomass of Chickpea Plants

Authors: Muhammad Naveed Aslam, Rida Fatima, Anam Moosa, Muhammad Taimoor Shakeel

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Bacillus strains produce antifungal secondary metabolites making them potential candidates for suppressing Fusarium wilt of chickpea disease. In this study, eighteen Bacillus strains were evaluated for their antagonistic effect against Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. ciceris causing Fusarium wilt of chickpea disease. In a direct antifungal assay, thirteen strains showed significant inhibition zones while the remaining five strains did not produce inhibition zones of FOC. Bacillus thuringiensis CHGP12 was the most promising strain exhibiting the highest inhibition of FOC. Antifungal lipopeptides were extracted from CHGP12 strain which showed significant inhibition of the pathogen. Liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LCMS) analysis revealed that CHGP12 was positive for the presence of iturin, fengycin, surfactin, bacillaene, bacillibactin, plantazolicin, and bacilysin. CHGP12 was tested for biochemical determinants in an in vitro qualitative test where it showed the ability to produce lipase, amylase, cellulase, protease, siderophores, and indole 3-acetic acid (IAA). Furthermore, in a greenhouse experiment CHGP12 also showed a significant decrease in the disease severity in treated plants compared to control. Moreover, CHGP12 also exhibited a significant increase in plant growth parameters viz, root and shoot growth parameters, stomatal conductance, and photosynthesis rate. Conclusively, our findings present the promising potential of Bacillus strain CHGP12 to suppress Fusarium wilt of chickpea and to promote plant growth.

Keywords: liquid chromatography mass spectrometry, growth promotion, antagonism, hydrolytic enzymes, inhibition, lipopeptides.

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4142 Management Tools for Assessment of Adverse Reactions Caused by Contrast Media at the Hospital

Authors: Pranee Suecharoen, Ratchadaporn Soontornpas, Jaturat Kanpittaya

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Background: Contrast media has an important role for disease diagnosis through detection of pathologies. Contrast media can, however, cause adverse reactions after administration of its agents. Although non-ionic contrast media are commonly used, the incidence of adverse events is relatively low. The most common reactions found (10.5%) were mild and manageable and/or preventable. Pharmacists can play an important role in evaluating adverse reactions, including awareness of the specific preparation and the type of adverse reaction. As most common types of adverse reactions are idiosyncratic or pseudo-allergic reactions, common standards need to be established to prevent and control adverse reactions promptly and effectively. Objective: To measure the effect of using tools for symptom evaluation in order to reduce the severity, or prevent the occurrence, of adverse reactions from contrast media. Methods: Retrospective review descriptive research with data collected on adverse reactions assessment and Naranjo’s algorithm between June 2015 and May 2016. Results: 158 patients (10.53%) had adverse reactions. Of the 1,500 participants with an adverse event evaluation, 137 (9.13%) had a mild adverse reaction, including hives, nausea, vomiting, dizziness, and headache. These types of symptoms can be treated (i.e., with antihistamines, anti-emetics) and the patient recovers completely within one day. The group with moderate adverse reactions, numbering 18 cases (1.2%), had hypertension or hypotension, and shortness of breath. Severe adverse reactions numbered 3 cases (0.2%) and included swelling of the larynx, cardiac arrest, and loss of consciousness, requiring immediate treatment. No other complications under close medical supervision were recorded (i.e., corticosteroids use, epinephrine, dopamine, atropine, or life-saving devices). Using the guideline, therapies are divided into general and specific and are performed according to the severity, risk factors and ingestion of contrast media agents. Patients who have high-risk factors were screened and treated (i.e., prophylactic premedication) for prevention of severe adverse reactions, especially those with renal failure. Thus, awareness for the need for prescreening of different risk factors is necessary for early recognition and prompt treatment. Conclusion: Studying adverse reactions can be used to develop a model for reducing the level of severity and setting a guideline for a standardized, multidisciplinary approach to adverse reactions.

Keywords: role of pharmacist, management of adverse reactions, guideline for contrast media, non-ionic contrast media

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4141 Detecting Potential Biomarkers for Ulcerative Colitis Using Hybrid Feature Selection

Authors: Mustafa Alshawaqfeh, Bilal Wajidy, Echin Serpedin, Jan Suchodolski

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Inflammatory Bowel disease (IBD) is a disease of the colon with characteristic inflammation. Clinically IBD is detected using laboratory tests (blood and stool), radiology tests (imaging using CT, MRI), capsule endoscopy and endoscopy. There are two variants of IBD referred to as Ulcerative Colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease. This study employs a hybrid feature selection method that combines a correlation-based variable ranking approach with exhaustive search wrapper methods in order to find potential biomarkers for UC. The proposed biomarkers presented accurate discriminatory power thereby identifying themselves to be possible ingredients to UC therapeutics.

Keywords: ulcerative colitis, biomarker detection, feature selection, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)

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4140 Clinical and Molecular Characterization of 120 Families with Sporadic Juvenile Onset Open Angle Glaucoma

Authors: Bindu I. Somarajan, Viney Gupta, Gagandeep Kaur Walia, Jasbir Kaur, Sunil Kumar, Shikha Gupta, Abadh K. Chaurasia, Dinesh Gupa, Abhinav Kaushik, Aditi Mehta, Vipin Gupta, Arundhati Sharma

Abstract:

Background: Juvenile onset primary open angle glaucoma (JOAG), affects individuals under the age of 40 years. Studies on a few families of JOAG, that led to the discovery of the Myocilin gene, reported the disease to have an autosomal dominant pattern of inheritance. However, sporadic forms of JOAG been seen to be more common in some populations. Most pathological homozygous mutations in the CYP1B1 gene associated with JOAG have been seen among sporadic cases. Given the higher prevalence of sporadic JOAG cases in our population, we aimed to look for common mutations E229K and R368H, the two most common variants in the CYP1B1 gene associated with glaucoma. Objective: To determine the frequency and evaluate genotype phenotype correlation of CYP1B1 E229K and R368H mutations in a cohort of 120 sporadic Juvenile open angle glaucoma patients.Methods: Unrelated JOAG patients whose first degree relatives had been examined and found to be unaffected were included in the study. The patients and their parents were screened for E229K and R368H mutations. The phenotypic characteristics were compared between probands with and with out these mutations by SPSS v16. Results: Out of 120 JOAG patients included in the study, the E229K mutation was seen in 9 probands (7.5%) and R368H in 7 (5.8%). The average age of onset of the disease (p=0.3) and the highest untreated IOP (p=0.4) among those carrying mutations was not significantly different from those who did not have these mutations. The proportion of probands with angle dysgenesis among those with E229K and R368H mutations was 70% (11 out of 16) in comparison to 65% (67 out of 104) of those who did not harbour these mutations (p=0.56). Similarly the probands with moderate to high myopia among those with E229K and R368H mutations was 20% (3 out of 16) in comparison to 18% (18 out of 104) of those who did not harbour these mutations(p=0.59). Conclusion: The frequency of E229K and R368H mutations of the CYP1B1 gene is low even among sporadic JOAG patients. Moreover there is no clinical correlation between the presence of these mutations and disease severity

Keywords: CYP1B1, gene, IOP, JOAG, mutation

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4139 The Burden of Leptospirosis in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years in a District of Sri Lanka

Authors: A. M. U. P. Kumari, Vidanapathirana. J., Amarasekara J., Karunanayaka L.

Abstract:

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic infection with significant morbidity and mortality. As an occupational disease, it has become a global concern due to its disease burden in endemic countries and rural areas. The aim of this study was to assess disease burden in terms of DALYs of leptospirosis. A hospital-based descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted using 450 clinically diagnosed leptospirosis patients admitted to base and above hospitals in Monaragala district, Sri Lanka, using a pretested interviewer administered questionnaire. The patients were followed up till normal day today life after discharge. Estimation of DALYs was done using laboratory confirmed leptospirosis patients. Leptospirosis disease burden in the Monaragala district was 44.9 DALYs per 100,000 population which includes 33.18 YLLs and 10.9 YLDs. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Monaragala district during the study period was 59.8 per 100,000 population, and the case fatality rate (CFR) was 1.5% due to delay in health seeking behaviour; 75% of deaths were among males due to multi organ failure. The disease burden of leptospirosis in the Moneragala district was significantly high, and urgent efforts to control and prevent leptospirosis should be a priority.

Keywords: human leptospirosis, disease burden, disability adjusted life Years, Sri Lanka

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4138 The Last of Centuries Old Cardamom Farming in Eastern Nepal: Crop Disease, Coping Strategies and Institutional Innovation

Authors: K. C. Sony

Abstract:

This paper investigates the coping strategies of households confronting disease in large cardamom (Amomum Subulatum Roxb.) in eastern Nepal. Cardamom farmers draw on various coping strategies to reduce the impact of crop disease in their livelihoods. Yet farmers face tremendous decline in production with a constant effort for revival. Past evidences provides dearth of information about coping strategies employed by farmers and institutional intervention to combat disease. Using factual data from Ilam district, and conducting a political economic analysis, this research addresses the gap by 1) understanding the impact of crop disease in farmers’ livelihoods, 2) identifying the coping strategies adopted by farmers and, 3) examining the existing institutional arrangements to address the disease. Coping strategies vary by household’s status defined by size of land, alternative income, and access to supporting institutions. Measures adopted are burning the cardamom field, changing land use pattern, diversifying crops, and visiting institutions for support. The local government’s support is limited to providing trainings and producing new varieties of cardamom. During crisis, farmers expect institutions to help revive the cardamom production, despite customary practice to combat disease. To retain and improve the livelihoods of farmers, there needs to be institutional innovation at the community level and policies that endorse immediate and sustainable support during hazards.

Keywords: cardamom, coping strategy, disease, institutions, Nepal

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4137 Urine Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin as an Early Marker of Acute Kidney Injury in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Patients

Authors: Sara Ataei, Maryam Taghizadeh-Ghehi, Amir Sarayani, Asieh Ashouri, Amirhossein Moslehi, Molouk Hadjibabaie, Kheirollah Gholami

Abstract:

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients with an incidence of 21–73%. Prevention and early diagnosis reduces the frequency and severity of this complication. Predictive biomarkers are of major importance to timely diagnosis. Neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a widely investigated novel biomarker for early diagnosis of AKI. However, no study assessed NGAL for AKI diagnosis in HSCT patients. Methods: We performed further analyses on gathered data from our recent trial to evaluate the performance of urine NGAL (uNGAL) as an indicator of AKI in 72 allogeneic HSCT patients. AKI diagnosis and severity were assessed using Risk–Injury–Failure–Loss–End-stage renal disease and AKI Network criteria. We assessed uNGAL on days -6, -3, +3, +9 and +15. Results: Time-dependent Cox regression analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between uNGAL and AKI occurrence. (HR=1.04 (1.008-1.07), P=0.01). There was a relation between uNGAL day +9 to baseline ratio and incidence of AKI (unadjusted HR=.1.047(1.012-1.083), P<0.01). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for day +9 to baseline ratio was 0.86 (0.74-0.99, P<0.01) and a cut-off value of 2.62 was 85% sensitive and 83% specific in predicting AKI. Conclusions: Our results indicated that increase in uNGAL augmented the risk of AKI and the changes of day +9 uNGAL concentrations from baseline could be of value for predicting AKI in HSCT patients. Additionally uNGAL changes preceded serum creatinine rises by nearly 2 days.

Keywords: acute kidney injury, hemtopoietic stem cell transplantation, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, Receiver-operating characteristic curve

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4136 Subjective Well-Being in Individuals Diagnosed with an Autoimmune Disease: Resilience, and Rumination as Moderating Factors

Authors: Renae McNair

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Subjective well-being levels were assessed in individuals diagnosed with an autoimmune disease. The current exploratory analysis sought to examine two factors that impact subjective well-being in individuals diagnosed with a chronic health condition. The two factors, resilience, and rumination, were assessed as possible moderators in self-reported levels of subjective well-being were measured. The importance of understanding the psychological state of perceived well-being in an individual diagnosed with an autoimmune disease is important given the impact of the level of subjective well-being on life longevity. In previous research, higher levels of subjective well-being are correlated with longer life longevity, including those individuals who have been diagnosed with an autoimmune disease. Conversely, individuals who report higher levels of negative affect have a shorter length of life longevity. According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC) and a report from the National Health Council, currently, 8-10% of individuals in the United States have been diagnosed with at least one autoimmune disease. Although treatment plans are in place to help manage the physical effects of disease, the psychological state of the person impacts life longevity. Resilience and rumination impact subjective well-being as an outcome in individuals diagnosed with an autoimmune disease. Resilience is the ability to adjust or adapt effectively and positively to unfavorable life conditions or events. Resilience acts as a protective factor in life, allowing those who face adversity to successfully adapt, regardless of the health diagnosis. Rumination is the worry or dwelling on the negative aspects of a given situation. Rumination interrupts the adaptive response, leading to a decrease in well-being. The relationship between resilience and subjective well-being were examined correlated with higher levels of resilience and higher levels of self-reported subjective well-being.

Keywords: subjective well-being, rumination, resilience, autoimmune disease

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4135 The Contribution of Genetic Polymorphisms of Tumor Necrosis Factor Alpha and Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor into the Unfavorable Clinical Course of Ulcerative Colitis

Authors: Y. I. Tretyakova, S. G. Shulkina, T. Y. Kravtsova, A. A. Antipova, N. Y. Kolomeets

Abstract:

The research aimed to assess the functional significance of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) gene polymorphism at the -308G/A (rs1800629) region and vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGFA) gene polymorphism at the -634G/C (rs 2010963) region in the development of ulcerative colitis (UC), focusing on patients from the Perm region, Russia. We examined 70 UC patients and 50 healthy donors during the active phase of the disease. Our focus was on TNF-α and VEGF concentration in the blood serum, as well as TNF-α and VEGFA gene polymorphisms at the -308G/А and -634G/C regions, respectively. We found that TNF-α and VEGF levels were significantly higher in patients with severe UC and high endoscopic activity compared to those with milder forms of the disease and low endoscopic activity. These tests could serve as additional non-invasive markers for assessing mucosal damage in the large intestine of UC patients. The frequency of allele variations in the TNF-α gene -308G/A (rs1800629) revealed a significantly higher occurrence of the unfavorable homozygote AA in UC patients compared to donors. Additionally, the major allele G and the allele pair GG were more frequent in patients with mild to moderate disease and 1-2 degree of endoscopic activity than in those with severe UC and 3-4 degree of endoscopic activity (χ2=14.19; p=0.000). We also observed a mutant allele A and the unfavorable homozygote AA associated with severe progressive UC. The occurrence of the mutant allele increased the risk of severe UC by 5 times (OR 5.03; CI 12.07-12.21). We did not find any significant differences in the frequency of the CC homozygote (χ2=1.02; p=0.6; OR=1.32) and the mutant allele C of the VEGFA gene -634G/C (rs 2010963) (χ2=0.01; p=0.913; OR=0.97) between groups of UC patients and healthy individuals. However, we detected that the mutant allele C and the unfavorable homozygote CC of the VEGFA gene were associated with more severe endoscopic changes in the colonic mucosa of UC patients (χ2=25,76; р=0,000; OR=0,15). The presence of the mutant allele increased the risk of severe UC by 6 times (OR 6,78; CI 3,13–14,7). We found a direct correlation between TNF-α and VEGFA gene polymorphisms, increased production of the same factors, disease severity, and endoscopic activity (р=0.000). Therefore, the presence of the mutant allele A and homozygote AA of the TNF-α gene at the -308G/A region and the mutant allele C and homozygote CC of the VEGFA gene at the -634G/C region are associated with risks related to an unfavorable clinical course of UC, frequent recurrences, and rapid progression. These findings should be considered when making prognoses regarding the clinical course of the disease and selecting treatment strategies. The presence of the homozygote AA in the TNF-α gene (rs1800629) is considered a sign of genetic predisposition to UC.

Keywords: gene polymorphism, TNF-α, ulcerative colitis, VEGF

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4134 Comprehensive Regional Drought Assessment Index

Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi

Abstract:

Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.

Keywords: drought, GIS, intensity index, regional assessment, variation maps

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4133 Manual Dexterity in Patients with Motor Neuron Disease

Authors: Magdalena Barbara Kaziuk, Ilona Hubner, Jacek Hubner, Slawomir Kroczka

Abstract:

Background: The motor neuron disease is a progressive neurodegenerative disease causing malfunction. Irrespective of the form of the disease and its onset always leads to the worsening of the quality of life, with patients usually depending on the family. Materials and methods: The study included 20 persons (5 females, 15 males, aged 65,5 ± 20 years) with clinically certain or probable diagnosis of the motor neuron disease. Patients were examined three times in the period of six months. The diagnosis was established based on the criteria of El Escorial. Manual dexterity was assessed using the test of the card Rene Zazzo and the test of shading in with lines Mira Stambak. Results: All patients achieved unsatisfactory results in Rene Zazzo’s test of the card and most of the patients (60%) in Mira Stambak’s test of shading with lines. Significantly higher test results were achieved for Rene Zazzo’s test and lower test results for Mira Stambak’s test in consecutive measurements. Conclusions: Impairment of manual dexterity is present already at the moment of diagnosing the disease and is growing significantly during its course. The quality of life for MND patients undergoes gradual deterioration as a result of the malfunction.

Keywords: manual dexterity, motor neuron disease, quality of life, malfunction

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4132 The Severity of Electric Bicycle Injuries Compared to Classic Bicycle Injuries in Children: A Retrospective Review

Authors: Tali Capua, Karin Hermon, Miguel Glatstein, Oren Tavor, Ayelet Rimon

Abstract:

Background: Electric bicycles (E-bikes) are one of a wide range of light electric vehicles that provide convenient local transportation and attractive recreational opportunities. Along with their growing use worldwide, the E-bike related injury rate increases. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to specifically compare E-bike with classic bicycle related injuries in children. Methods: Data of all pediatric ( < 16 years of age) bicycle related injuries presenting to an urban level I trauma center between 2014 and 2015 were collected and analyzed. The recorded data included age, gender, details of the accident, as well severity of injury, medical diagnosis, and the outcome. Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) and Injury Severity Score (ISS) were calculated for each patient. Data of E-bike related injuries and classic bicycle were then compared. Results: A total of 124 bicycle related injuries and 97 E-bike related injuries presented to the emergency department. Once pedestrians and bicycle passengers were removed, the groups of riders consisted of 111 bikers and 85 E-bikers. The mean age of bikers was 9.9 years (range 3-16 years) and of E-bikers was 13.7 years (range 7.5-16 years). Injuries to the head and the extremities were common in both groups. Compared to bikers, E-bikers had significantly more injuries to intra-abdominal organs (p = 0.04). Twenty patients (16%) with bicycle related injuries were admitted, and 13 (15%) patients with E-bike related injuries, of the latter group four underwent surgical intervention. ISS scores were low overall, but the injuries of higher severity (ISS > 9) were among the E-bikers. Conclusions: This study provides unique information which suggests that injuries in E-bikers tend to be more severe than in classic bikers. There is a need for regulation regarding the use of E-bikes to enhance the safety of both bikers and other road and pavement users.

Keywords: bicycle, electric bicycle, injury, pediatric, trauma

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4131 Analyzing the Influence of Hydrometeorlogical Extremes, Geological Setting, and Social Demographic on Public Health

Authors: Irfan Ahmad Afip

Abstract:

This main research objective is to accurately identify the possibility for a Leptospirosis outbreak severity of a certain area based on its input features into a multivariate regression model. The research question is the possibility of an outbreak in a specific area being influenced by this feature, such as social demographics and hydrometeorological extremes. If the occurrence of an outbreak is being subjected to these features, then the epidemic severity for an area will be different depending on its environmental setting because the features will influence the possibility and severity of an outbreak. Specifically, this research objective was three-fold, namely: (a) to identify the relevant multivariate features and visualize the patterns data, (b) to develop a multivariate regression model based from the selected features and determine the possibility for Leptospirosis outbreak in an area, and (c) to compare the predictive ability of multivariate regression model and machine learning algorithms. Several secondary data features were collected locations in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, based on the possibility it would be relevant to determine the outbreak severity in the area. The relevant features then will become an input in a multivariate regression model; a linear regression model is a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. A multivariate regression model has proven more precise prognostic capabilities than univariate models. The expected outcome from this research is to establish a correlation between the features of social demographic and hydrometeorological with Leptospirosis bacteria; it will also become a contributor for understanding the underlying relationship between the pathogen and the ecosystem. The relationship established can be beneficial for the health department or urban planner to inspect and prepare for future outcomes in event detection and system health monitoring.

Keywords: geographical information system, hydrometeorological, leptospirosis, multivariate regression

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