Search results for: long term effects
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 16861

Search results for: long term effects

15751 The Role of High Schools in Saudi Arabia in Supporting Young Adults with Intellectual Disabilities with Their Transition to Post-secondary Education

Authors: Sohil I. Alqazlan

Abstract:

Introduction and Objectives: There is limited research focusing on young adults with intellectual disabilities (ID) and their experiences after finishing compulsory education, especially in the Middle Eastern/Arab countries. This paper aims to further understand the lives of young adults with ID in Riyadh [the capital city of Saudi Arabia], particularly as they go on to access Post-Secondary Education [PSE]. As part of this study, it is important to understand the roles of high schools in Riyadh in terms of preparing their students for post-school life. To achieve this, the researcher has asked Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Education to provide student transition plans (TPs) for post-school opportunities. However, and unfortunately, high schools in Riyadh do not use transition plans for their students. Therefore, the researcher has requested individual education plans (IEPs) for students with ID in their final year at high school to find the type of support the students had regarding both their long- and short-term goals that might help them access PSE or the labour market. Methods: The researcher analysed 10 IEPs of students in their final year at high school. To achieve the aim of the study, the researcher compared these IEPs with expectations set out in the official IEP framework of the MoE in Saudi Arabia, such as collaboration on the IEP sample and the focus on adult life. By analysing the students’ IEPs in terms of various goals, this study attempts to highlight skills that might offer students more independence after finishing compulsory education and going on to PSE. Results: Unfortunately, communication between IEP team members proved persistently absent in the sample. This was clear from the fact that none of the team members, apart from the SEN teachers, had signed any of the IEPs. Thus, none of the daily or weekly goals outlined were sent to parents to review at home. As a result of this, there were no goals in the IEPs that clearly referred to PSE. However, some long-term goals were set which might help those with ID become more independent in their adult life. For example, in the IEPs, which dealt with computer skills, the student had goals related to using Microsoft Word. Finally, just one goal of these IEPs set an important independent skill for the young adults with ID: “the student will learn how to use public transportation”. Conclusions: From analysing the ten IEPs, it was clear that SEN teachers in Riyadh schools were working without any help from other professionals. The students with ID, as well as their families, were not consulted on their views on important goals. Therefore, more work needs to be done with the students regarding their transition to PSE, perhaps by building partnerships between high schools and potential PSE institutions. Finally, more PSE programmes and a higher level of employer awareness could help create a bridge for students transferring from high school to PSE. Schools could also focus their IEP goals towards specific PSE programmes the student might attend, which could increase their chances of success.

Keywords: high school, post-secondary education, PSE, students with intellectual disabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 167
15750 Spontaneous Reformation of Dehiscent Frontal Sinus Wall after Endoscopic Removal of Mucocele

Authors: Tan Dexian Arthur, James Wei Ming Kwek, Ian Loh, Lee Tee Sin

Abstract:

Statement of the Problem: Mucoceles most commonly affect the frontal sinus, which results from chronic obstruction of the sinus ostium or cystic dilatation of mucous glands with ductal obstruction. They are known to cause bony erosion of the sinus walls, which can lead to large defects. These defects were typically managed by obliteration or cranialization of the frontal sinus. Although short term outcomes of conservative management of significant posterior table defects from fractures are promising, there have been no studies on the long-term outcomes of large dehiscences in the posterior wall of the frontal sinus. Methodology & Findings : Computed Tomography (CT) Paranasal Sinuses images were analyzed and found complete spontaneous osteogenesis of a large dehiscent frontal sinus posterior wall, secondary to a large mucocele, 9 years from functional endoscopic sinus surgery with the defect managed conservatively. Conclusion & Significance: The dura is well known for its osteogenic properties. Prior studies have showed that dura could induce osteogenesis in cutaneous tissue in the absence of other central nervous system structures. It was also demonstrated that osteogenesis and chondrogenesis were possible in zygomatic fractures by transplanting neonatal dura grafts to the bony defects in rats. Extrapolating from these studies, the authors postulate that the presence of dura beneath the bony deformity of the posterior frontal sinus wall had likely initiated the osteogenesis and restored the bony defect in the patient. In our literature review, we did not find any reports of spontaneous osteogenesis of large frontal sinus defects. While our experience is incidental, it reinforces the osteogenetic potential of an intact dura and further highlights that selected large defects of the posterior wall of the frontal sinus can be conservatively managed.

Keywords: paranasal sinus mucocele, mucocele, osteogenesis, dehiscence

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
15749 Armed Forces Special Powers Act and Human Rights in Nagaland

Authors: Khrukulu Khusoh

Abstract:

The strategies and tactics used by governments throughout the world to counter terrorism and insurgency over the past few decades include the declaration of states of siege or martial law, enactment of anti-terrorist legislation and strengthening of judicial powers. Some of these measures taken have been more successful than the other, but some have proved counterproductive, alienating the public from the authorities and further polarizing an already fractured political environment. Such cases of alienation and polarization can be seen in the northeastern states of India. The Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act which was introduced to curb insurgency in the remote jungles of the far-flung areas has remained a telling tale of agony in the north east India. Grievous trauma to humans through encounter killings, custodial deaths, unwarranted torture, exploitation of women and children in several ways have been reported in Nagaland, Manipur and other northeastern states where the Indian army has been exercising powers under the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act. While terrorism and the insurgency are destructive of human rights, counter-terrorism does not necessarily restore and safeguard human rights. This special law has not proven effective particularly in dealing with terrorism and insurgency. The insurgency has persisted in the state of Nagaland even after sixty years notwithstanding the presence of a good number of special laws. There is a need to fight elements that threaten the security of a nation, but the methods chosen should be measured, otherwise the fight is lost. There has been no review on the effectiveness or failure of the act to realize its intended purpose. Nor was there any attempt on the part of the state to critically look at the violation of rights of innocent citizens by the state agencies. The Indian state keeps enacting laws, but none of these could be effectively applied as there was the absence of clarity of purpose. Therefore, every new law which has been enacted time and again to deal with security threats failed to bring any solution for the last six decades. The Indian state resorts to measures which are actually not giving anything in terms of strategic benefits but are short-term victories that might result in long-term tragedies. Therefore, right thinking citizens and human rights activists across the country feel that introduction of Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act was as much violation of human rights and its continuation is undesirable. What worried everyone is the arbitrary use, or rather misuse of power by the Indian armed forces particularly against the weaker sections of the society, including women. After having being subjected to indiscriminate abuse of that law, people of the north-east India have been demanding its revocation for a long time. The present paper attempts to critically examine the violation of human rights under Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act. It also attempts to bring out the impact of Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act on the Naga people.

Keywords: armed forces, insurgency, special laws, violence

Procedia PDF Downloads 491
15748 Factors Influencing Intention to Engage in Long-term Care Services among Nursing Aide Trainees and the General Public

Authors: Ju-Chun Chien

Abstract:

Rapid aging and depopulation could lead to serious problems, including workforce shortages and health expenditure costs. The current and predicted future LTC workforce shortages could be a real threat to Taiwan’s society. By means of comparison of data from 144 nursing aide trainees and 727 general public, the main purpose of the present study was to determine whether there were any notable differences between the two groups toward engaging in LTC services. Moreover, this study focused on recognizing the attributes of the general public who had the willingness to take LTC jobs but continue to ride the fence. A self-developed questionnaire was designed based on Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior model. After conducting exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and reliability analysis, the questionnaire was a reliable and valid instrument for both nursing aide trainees and the general public. The main results were as follows: Firstly, nearly 70% of nursing aide trainees showed interest in LTC jobs. Most of them were middle-aged female (M = 46.85, SD = 9.31), had a high school diploma or lower, had unrelated work experience in healthcare, and were mostly unemployed. The most common reason for attending the LTC training program was to gain skills in a particular field. The second most common reason was to obtain the license. The third and fourth reasons were to be interested in caring for people and to increase income. The three major reasons that might push them to leave LTC jobs were physical exhaustion, payment is bad, and being looked down on. Secondly, the variables that best-predicted nursing aide trainees’ intention to engage in LTC services were having personal willingness, perceived behavior control, with high school diploma or lower, and supported from family and friends. Finally, only 11.80% of the general public reported having interest in LTC jobs (the disapproval rating was 50% for the general public). In comparison to nursing aide trainees who showed interest in LTC settings, 64.8% of the new workforce for LTC among the general public was male and had an associate degree, 54.8% had relevant healthcare experience, 67.1% was currently employed, and they were younger (M = 32.19, SD = 13.19) and unmarried (66.3%). Furthermore, the most commonly reason for the new workforce to engage in LTC jobs were to gain skills in a particular field. The second priority was to be interested in caring for people. The third and fourth most reasons were to give back to society and to increase income, respectively. The top five most commonly reasons for the new workforce to quitting LTC jobs were listed as follows: physical exhaustion, being looked down on, excessive working hours, payment is bad, and excessive job stress.

Keywords: long-term care services, nursing aide trainees, Taiwanese people, theory of planned behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
15747 Predicting Intention and Readiness to Alcohol Consumption Reduction and Cessation among Thai Teenagers Using Scales Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior

Authors: Rewadee Watakakosol, Arunya Tuicomepee, Panrapee Suttiwan, Sakkaphat T. Ngamake

Abstract:

Health problems caused by alcohol consumption not only have short-term effects at the time of drinking but also leave long-lasting health conditions. Teenagers who start drinking in their middle-high or high school years or before entering college have higher likelihood to increase their alcohol use and abuse, and they were found to be less healthy compared with their non-drinking peers when entering adulthood. This study aimed to examine factors that predict intention and readiness to reduce and quit alcohol consumption among Thai teenagers. Participants were 826 high-school and vocational school students, most of whom were females (64.4%) with the average age of 16.4 (SD = 0.9) and the average age of first drinking at 13.7 (SD = 2.2). Instruments included the scales that developed based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour theoretical framework. They were the Attitude toward Alcohol Reduction and Cessation Scale, Normative Group and Influence Scale, Perceived Behavioral Control toward Alcohol Reduction and Cessation Scale, Behavioral Intent toward Alcohol Reduction and Cessation Scale, and Readiness to Reduce and Quit Alcohol Consumption Scale. Findings revealed that readiness to reduce / quit alcohol was the most powerful predictive factor (β=. 53, p < .01), followed by attitude of easiness in alcohol reduction and cessation (β=.46, p < .01), perceived behavioral control toward alcohol reduction and cessation (β =.41, p < .01), normative group and influence (β=.15, p < .01), and attitude of being accepted from alcohol reduction and cessation (β = -.12, p < .01), respectively. Attitude of improved health after alcohol reduction and cessation did not show statistically significantly predictive power. All factors significantly predict teenagers’ alcohol reduction and cessation behavior and accounted for 59 percent of total variance of alcohol consumption reduction and cessation.

Keywords: alcohol consumption reduction and cessation, intention, readiness to change, Thai teenagers

Procedia PDF Downloads 329
15746 Effects of Oxytocin on Neural Response to Facial Emotion Recognition in Schizophrenia

Authors: Avyarthana Dey, Naren P. Rao, Arpitha Jacob, Chaitra V. Hiremath, Shivarama Varambally, Ganesan Venkatasubramanian, Rose Dawn Bharath, Bangalore N. Gangadhar

Abstract:

Objective: Impaired facial emotion recognition is widely reported in schizophrenia. Neuropeptide oxytocin is known to modulate brain regions involved in facial emotion recognition, namely amygdala, in healthy volunteers. However, its effect on facial emotion recognition deficits seen in schizophrenia is not well explored. In this study, we examined the effect of intranasal OXT on processing facial emotions and its neural correlates in patients with schizophrenia. Method: 12 male patients (age= 31.08±7.61 years, education= 14.50±2.20 years) participated in this single-blind, counterbalanced functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study. All participants underwent three fMRI scans; one at baseline, one each after single dose 24IU intranasal OXT and intranasal placebo. The order of administration of OXT and placebo were counterbalanced and subject was blind to the drug administered. Participants performed a facial emotion recognition task presented in a block design with six alternating blocks of faces and shapes. The faces depicted happy, angry or fearful emotions. The images were preprocessed and analyzed using SPM 12. First level contrasts comparing recognition of emotions and shapes were modelled at individual subject level. A group level analysis was performed using the contrasts generated at the first level to compare the effects of intranasal OXT and placebo. The results were thresholded at uncorrected p < 0.001 with a cluster size of 6 voxels. Neuropeptide oxytocin is known to modulate brain regions involved in facial emotion recognition, namely amygdala, in healthy volunteers. Results: Compared to placebo, intranasal OXT attenuated activity in inferior temporal, fusiform and parahippocampal gyri (BA 20), premotor cortex (BA 6), middle frontal gyrus (BA 10) and anterior cingulate gyrus (BA 24) and enhanced activity in the middle occipital gyrus (BA 18), inferior occipital gyrus (BA 19), and superior temporal gyrus (BA 22). There were no significant differences between the conditions on the accuracy scores of emotion recognition between baseline (77.3±18.38), oxytocin (82.63 ± 10.92) or Placebo (76.62 ± 22.67). Conclusion: Our results provide further evidence to the modulatory effect of oxytocin in patients with schizophrenia. Single dose oxytocin resulted in significant changes in activity of brain regions involved in emotion processing. Future studies need to examine the effectiveness of long-term treatment with OXT for emotion recognition deficits in patients with schizophrenia.

Keywords: recognition, functional connectivity, oxytocin, schizophrenia, social cognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 215
15745 Assessment of Vehicular Accidents and Possible Mitigation Measures: A Case of Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India

Authors: K. Omkar, D. Nayan

Abstract:

Rapid urbanization is one of the consequences of rapid population explosion, which has also led to massive increase in number of motorized vehicles essential for carrying out all activities needed for sustaining urban livelihood. With this increased use of motorized vehicles over the time there has also been an increase in number of accidents. Study of road network and geometric features are essential to tackle problems of road accidents in any district or town. The increase in road accidents is one of the burning issues in the present society. Records show that there is one death at every 3.7 minutes because of road accident. It has been found from the research that, accidents occur due to, mistakes of the driver (86%) followed by bad street condition (5%), mistake of pedestrian (4%), as well as technical and maintenance defects (1%). Here, case study of Ahmedabad, Gujarat is taken up where first road safety level is assessed considering various parameters. The study confined to accident characteristics of all types of vehicles. For deeper analysis, road safety index for various stretches in Ahmedabad was found out. Crash rate for same stretches was found out. Based on various parameters priority was decided so that which stretch should be look out first to minimize road accidents on that stretch and which stretch should look out last. The major findings of the study are that accident severity of Ahmedabad has increased, but accident fatality risk has decreased; thus there is need to undertake some traffic engineering measures or make some traffic rules that are strictly followed by traffic. From the above study and literature studied it is found that Ahmedabad is suffering from similar problem of accidents and injuries and deaths caused by them, after properly investigating the issue short-term and long-term solutions to minimize road accidents have been presented in this paper.

Keywords: accident severity index, accident fatality rate, accident fatality risk, accident risk, road safety index

Procedia PDF Downloads 139
15744 Dissolved Black Carbon Accelerates the Photo-Degradation of Polystyrene Microplastics

Authors: Qin Ou, Yanghui Xu, Xintu Wang, Kim Maren Lompe, Gang Liu, Jan Peter Van Der Hoek

Abstract:

Microplastics (MPs) can undergo the photooxidation process under ultraviolet (UV) exposure, which determines their transformation and fate in environments. The presence of dissolved organic matter (DOM) can interact with MPs and take participate in the photo-degradation of MPs. As an important DOM component, dissolved black carbon (DBC), widely distributed in aquatic environments, can accelerate or inhibit the sunlight-driven photo-transformation of environmental pollutants. However, the role and underlying mechanism of DBC in the photooxidation of MPs are not clear. Herein, the DBC (< 0.45 µm) was extracted from wood biochar and fractionated by molecular weight (i.e., <3 KDa, 3 KDa−30 KDa, 30 KDa−0.45 µm). The effects of DBC chemical composition (i.e., molecular weight and chemical structure) in DBC-mediated photo-transformation of polystyrene (PS) MPs were investigated. The results showed that DBC initially inhibited the photo-degradation of MPs due to light shielding. Under UV exposure for 6−24 h, the presence of 5 mg/L DBC decreased the carbonyl index of MPs compared to the control. This inhibitory effect of DBC was found to decrease with increasing irradiation time. Notably, DBC initially decreased but then increased the hydroxyl index with aging time, suggesting that the role of DBC may shift from inhibition to acceleration. In terms of the different DBC fractions, the results showed that the smallest fraction of DBC (<3 KDa) significantly accelerated the photooxidation of PS MPs since it acted as reactive oxygen species (ROS) generators, especially in promoting the production of ¹O₂ and ³DBC* and •OH. With the increase in molecular weight, the acceleration effect of DBC on the degradation of MPs was decreased due to the increase of light shielding and possible decrease of photosensitization ability. This study thoroughly investigated the critical role of DBC chemical composition in the photooxidation process, which helps to assess the duration of aging and transformation of MPs during long-term weathering in natural waters.

Keywords: microplastics, photo-degradation, dissolved black carbon, molecular weight, photosensitization

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
15743 The Financial Impact of Covid 19 on the Hospitality Industry in New Zealand

Authors: Kay Fielden, Eelin Tan, Lan Nguyen

Abstract:

In this research project, data was gathered at a Covid 19 Conference held in June 2021 from industry leaders who discussed the impact of the global pandemic on the status of the New Zealand hospitality industry. Panel discussions on financials, human resources, health and safety, and recovery were conducted. The themes explored for the finance panel were customer demographics, hospitality sectors, financial practices, government impact, and cost of compliance. The aim was to see how the hospitality industry has responded to the global pandemic and the steps that have been taken for the industry to recover or sustain their business. The main research question for this qualitative study is: What are the factors that have impacted on finance for the hospitality industry in New Zealand due to Covid 19? For financials, literature has been gathered to study global effects, and this is being compared with the data gathered from the discussion panel through the lens of resilience theory. Resilience theory applied to the hospitality industry suggests that the challenges imposed by Covid 19 have been the catalyst for government initiatives, technical innovation, engaging local communities, and boosting confidence. Transformation arising from these ground shifts have been a move towards sustainability, wellbeing, more awareness of climate change, and community engagement. Initial findings suggest that there has been a shift in customer base that has prompted regional accommodation providers to realign offers and to become more flexible to attract and maintain this realigned customer base. Dynamic pricing structures have been required to meet changing customer demographics. Flexible staffing arrangements include sharing staff between different accommodation providers, owners with multiple properties adopting different staffing arrangements, maintaining a good working relationship with the bank, and conserving cash. Uncertain times necessitate changing revenue strategies to cope with external factors. Financial support offered by the government has cushioned the financial downturn for many in the hospitality industry, and managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) arrangements have offered immediate financial relief for those hotels involved. However, there is concern over the long-term effects. Compliance with mandated health and safety requirements has meant that the hospitality industry has streamlined its approach to meeting those requirements and has invested in customer relations to keep paying customers informed of the health measures in place. Initial findings from this study lie within the resilience theory framework and are consistent with findings from the literature.

Keywords: global pandemic, hospitality industry, new Zealand, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
15742 The Act of Care: Reimagined Rituals towards Unattachment

Authors: Ioana G. Turcan

Abstract:

reimagined rituals towards unattachment wants to look at an ambiguous loss through the perspective of caregivers, those that accompany us at the beginning and possibly the end of life, those that observe, accumulate, and are impacted by our behavior and needs, but also those that are the witnesses of the human vulnerability. Someone taking care of a patient with dementia experiences ambiguous loss, being in a present of a person partially present, partially absent. The one offering care needs care, not isolation and the aim of the project is to consolidate existing communities or engage other possible ones using performance, storytelling, and other artistic methods. The long-term aim is that with community work, we will manage to co-create rituals in order to help us live with this kind of loss. Looking at them through the lens of different cultures and individuals exercises both the ability to extract the universal essence of a ritual, but also the need and freedom to express the specificity of each situation. To be seen and acknowledged by others, but more importantly, to see oneself from outside with dignity, is very powerful. Oftentimes we forget to express, look and appreciate our own stories, and instead, we choose to outcast them.

Keywords: grief, socio-politics of loss, ambiguous loss, rituals

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
15741 Computerized Cognitive Training and Psychological Resiliency among Adolescents with Learning Disabilities

Authors: Verd Shomrom, Gilat Trabelsi

Abstract:

The goal of the study was to examine the effects of Computerized Cognitive Training (CCT) with and without cognitive mediation on Executive Function (EF) (planning and self- regulation) and on psychological resiliency among adolescents with Attention Deficits Hyperactive Disorder (ADHD) with or without Learning Disabilities (LD). Adolescents diagnosed with Attention Deficit Disorder and / or Learning Disabilities have multidimensional impairments that result from neurological damage. This work explored the possibility of influencing cognitive aspects in the field of Executive Functions (specifically: patterns of planning and self-regulation) among adolescents with a diagnosis of Attention Deficit Disorder and / or Learning Disabilities who study for a 10-12 grades. 46 adolescents with ADHD and/or with LD were randomly applied to experimental and control groups. All the participants were tested (BRC- research version, Resiliency quaternaries) before and after the intervention: mediated/ non-mediated Computerized Cognitive Training (MINDRI). The results indicated significant effects of cognitive modification in the experimental group, between pre and post Phases, in comparison to control group, especially in self- regulation (BRC- research version, Resiliency quaternaries), and on process analysis of Computerized Cognitive Training (MINDRI). The main conclusion was that even short- term mediation synchronized with CCT could greatly enhance the performance of executive functions demands. Theoretical implications for the positive effects of MLE in combination with CCT indicate the ability for cognitive change. The practical implication is the awareness and understanding of efficient intervention processes to enhance EF, learning awareness, resiliency and self-esteem of adolescents in their academic and daily routine.

Keywords: attention deficits hyperactive disorder, computerized cognitive training, executive function, mediated learning experience, learning disabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
15740 Stock Price Prediction Using Time Series Algorithms

Authors: Sumit Sen, Sohan Khedekar, Umang Shinde, Shivam Bhargava

Abstract:

This study has been undertaken to investigate whether the deep learning models are able to predict the future stock prices by training the model with the historical stock price data. Since this work required time series analysis, various models are present today to perform time series analysis such as Recurrent Neural Network LSTM, ARIMA and Facebook Prophet. Applying these models the movement of stock price of stocks are predicted and also tried to provide the future prediction of the stock price of a stock. Final product will be a stock price prediction web application that is developed for providing the user the ease of analysis of the stocks and will also provide the predicted stock price for the next seven days.

Keywords: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Deep Learning, Long Short Term Memory, Time-series

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
15739 ZigBee Wireless Sensor Nodes with Hybrid Energy Storage System Based on Li-Ion Battery and Solar Energy Supply

Authors: Chia-Chi Chang, Chuan-Bi Lin, Chia-Min Chan

Abstract:

Most ZigBee sensor networks to date make use of nodes with limited processing, communication, and energy capabilities. Energy consumption is of great importance in wireless sensor applications as their nodes are commonly battery-driven. Once ZigBee nodes are deployed outdoors, limited power may make a sensor network useless before its purpose is complete. At present, there are two strategies for long node and network lifetime. The first strategy is saving energy as much as possible. The energy consumption will be minimized through switching the node from active mode to sleep mode and routing protocol with ultra-low energy consumption. The second strategy is to evaluate the energy consumption of sensor applications as accurately as possible. Erroneous energy model may render a ZigBee sensor network useless before changing batteries. In this paper, we present a ZigBee wireless sensor node with four key modules: a processing and radio unit, an energy harvesting unit, an energy storage unit, and a sensor unit. The processing unit uses CC2530 for controlling the sensor, carrying out routing protocol, and performing wireless communication with other nodes. The harvesting unit uses a 2W solar panel to provide lasting energy for the node. The storage unit consists of a rechargeable 1200 mAh Li-ion battery and a battery charger using a constant-current/constant-voltage algorithm. Our solution to extend node lifetime is implemented. Finally, a long-term sensor network test is used to exhibit the functionality of the solar powered system.

Keywords: ZigBee, Li-ion battery, solar panel, CC2530

Procedia PDF Downloads 373
15738 An Exploration of Health Promotion Approach to Increase Optimal Complementary Feeding among Pastoral Mothers Having Children between 6 and 23 Months in Dikhil, Djibouti

Authors: Haruka Ando

Abstract:

Undernutrition of children is a critical issue, especially for people in the remote areas of the Republic of Djibouti, since household food insecurity, inadequate child caring and feeding, unhealthy environment and lack of clean water, as well as insufficient maternal and child healthcare, are underlying causes which affect. Nomadic pastoralists living in the Dikhil region (Dikhil) are socio-economically and geographically more vulnerable due to displacement, which in turn worsens the situation of child stunting. A high prevalence of inappropriate complementary feeding among pastoral mothers might be a significant barrier to child growth. This study aims to identify health promotion intervention strategies that would support an increase in optimal complementary feeding among pastoral mothers of children aged 6-23 months in Dikhil. There are four objectives; to explore and to understand the existing practice of complementary feeding among pastoral mothers in Dikhil; to identify the barriers in appropriate complementary feeding among the mothers; to critically explore and analyse the strategies for an increase in complementary feeding among the mothers; to make pragmatic recommendations to address the barriers in Djibouti. This is an in-depth study utilizing a conceptual framework, the behaviour change wheel, to analyse the determinants of complementary feeding and categorize health promotion interventions for increasing optimal complementary feeding among pastoral mothers living in Dikhil. The analytical tool was utilized to appraise the strategies to mitigate the selected barriers against optimal complementary feeding. The data sources were secondary literature from both published and unpublished sources. The literature was systematically collected. The findings of the determinants including the barriers of optimal complementary feeding were identified: heavy household workload, caring for multiple children under five, lack of education, cultural norms and traditional eating habits, lack of husbands' support, poverty and food insecurity, lack of clean water, low media coverage, insufficient health services on complementary feeding, fear, poor personal hygiene, and mothers' low decision-making ability and lack of motivation for food choice. To mitigate selected barriers of optimal complementary feeding, four intervention strategies based on interpersonal communication at the community-level were chosen: scaling up mothers' support groups, nutrition education, grandmother-inclusive approach, and training for complementary feeding counseling. The strategies were appraised through the criteria of effectiveness and feasibility. Scaling up mothers' support groups could be the best approach. Mid-term and long-term recommendations are suggested based on the situation analysis and appraisal of intervention strategies. Mid-term recommendations include complementary feeding promotion interventions are integrated into the healthcare service providing system in Dikhil, and donor agencies advocate and lobby the Ministry of Health Djibouti (MoHD) to increase budgetary allocation on complementary feeding promotion to implement interventions at a community level. Moreover, the recommendations include a community health management team in Dikhil training healthcare workers and mother support groups by using complementary feeding communication guidelines and monitors behaviour change of pastoral mothers and health outcome of their children. Long-term recommendations are the MoHD develops complementary feeding guidelines to cover sector-wide collaboration for multi-sectoral related barriers.

Keywords: Afar, child food, child nutrition, complementary feeding, complementary food, developing countries, Djibouti, East Africa, hard-to-reach areas, Horn of Africa, nomad, pastoral, rural area, Somali, Sub-Saharan Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 119
15737 Investigation of Flow Effects of Soundwaves Incident on an Airfoil

Authors: Thirsa Sherry, Utkarsh Shrivastav, Kannan B. T., Iynthezhuton K.

Abstract:

The field of aerodynamics and aeroacoustics remains one of the most poignant and well-researched fields of today. The current paper aims to investigate the predominant problem concerning the effects of noise of varying frequencies and waveforms on airflow surrounding an airfoil. Using a single speaker beneath the airfoil at different positions, we wish to simulate the effects of sound directly impinging on an airfoil and study its direct effects on airflow. We wish to study the same using smoke visualization methods with incense as our smoke-generating material in a variable-speed subsonic wind tunnel. Using frequencies and wavelengths similar to those of common engine noise, we wish to simulate real-world conditions of engine noise interfering with airflow and document the arising trends. These results will allow us to look into the real-world effects of noise on airflow and how to minimize them and expand on the possible relation between waveforms and noise. The parameters used in the study include frequency, Reynolds number, waveforms, angle of attack, and the effects on airflow when varying these parameters.

Keywords: engine noise, aeroacoustics, acoustic excitation, low speed

Procedia PDF Downloads 90
15736 Amazon and Its AI Features

Authors: Leen Sulaimani, Maryam Hafiz, Naba Ali, Roba Alsharif

Abstract:

One of Amazon’s most crucial online systems is artificial intelligence. Amazon would not have a worldwide successful online store, an easy and secure way of payment, and other services if it weren’t for artificial intelligence and machine learning. Amazon uses AI to expand its operations and enhance them by upgrading the website daily; having a strong base of artificial intelligence in a worldwide successful business can improve marketing, decision-making, feedback, and more qualities. Aiming to have a rational AI system in one’s business should be the start of any process; that is why Amazon is fortunate that they keep taking care of the base of their business by using modern artificial intelligence, making sure that it is stable, reaching their organizational goals, and will continue to thrive more each and every day. Artificial intelligence is used daily in our current world and is still being amplified more each day to reach consumer satisfaction and company short and long-term goals.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, Amazon, business, customer, decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
15735 The Assessment of Natural Ventilation Performance for Thermal Comfort in Educational Space: A Case Study of Design Studio in the Arab Academy for Science and Technology, Alexandria

Authors: Alaa Sarhan, Rania Abd El Gelil, Hana Awad

Abstract:

Through the last decades, the impact of thermal comfort on the working performance of users and occupants of an indoor space has been a concern. Research papers concluded that natural ventilation quality directly impacts the levels of thermal comfort. Natural ventilation must be put into account during the design process in order to improve the inhabitant's efficiency and productivity. One example of daily long-term occupancy spaces is educational facilities. Many individuals spend long times receiving a considerable amount of knowledge, and it takes additional time to apply this knowledge. Thus, this research is concerned with user's level of thermal comfort in design studios of educational facilities. The natural ventilation quality in spaces is affected by a number of parameters including orientation, opening design, and many other factors. This research aims to investigate the conscious manipulation of the physical parameters of the spaces and its impact on natural ventilation performance which subsequently affects thermal comfort of users. The current research uses inductive and deductive methods to define natural ventilation design considerations, which are used in a field study in a studio in the university building in Alexandria (AAST) to evaluate natural ventilation performance through analyzing and comparing the current case to the developed framework and conducting computational fluid dynamics simulation. Results have proved that natural ventilation performance is successful by only 50% of the natural ventilation design framework; these results are supported by CFD simulation.

Keywords: educational buildings, natural ventilation, , mediterranean climate, thermal comfort

Procedia PDF Downloads 217
15734 Effect of Select Surfactants on Activities of Soil Enzymes Involved in Nutrient Cycling

Authors: Frieda Eivazi, Nikita L. Mullings

Abstract:

Soils are recipient for surfactants in herbicide formulations. Surfactants entering the soil environment can possibly disrupt different chemical, physical and biological interactions. Therefore, it is critical that we understand the fate, behavior and transport of surfactants upon entering the soil. A comprehensive study was conducted to examine effect of surfactants on nutrient uptake, microbial community, and enzyme activity. The research was conducted in the greenhouse growing corn (Zea mays) as a test plant in a factorial experiment (three surfactants at two different rates with control, and three herbicides) organized as randomized blocked design. Surfactants evaluated were Activator 90, Agri-Dex, and Thrust; herbicides were glyphosate, atrazine, and bentazon. Treatments examined were surfactant only, herbicide only, and surfactant + herbicide combinations. Corn was planted in fertilized soils (silt loam and silty clay) with moisture content maintained at the field capacity for optimum growth. This paper will report results of above mentioned treatments on acid phosphatase, beta-glucosidase, arylsulfatase, beta-glucosaminidase, and dehydrogenase activities. In general, there were variations in the enzyme activities with some inhibition and some being enhanced by the treatments. Activator 90 appeared to have the highest inhibitory effect on enzymatic activities. Atrazine application significantly decreased the activities of acid phosphatase, beta-glucosidase, and dehydrogenase in both soils; however, combination of Atrazine + Agridex increased the acid phosphatase activity while significantly inhibiting the other enzyme activities in soils. It was concluded that long-term field studies are needed to validate changes in nutrient uptake, microbial community and enzyme activities due to surfactant-herbicide combination effects.

Keywords: herbicides, nutrient cycling, soil enzymes, surfactant

Procedia PDF Downloads 249
15733 Sudanese Dietitian’s Role in the Provision of Parenteral Nutrition: The Past, Present, and Future

Authors: Reem Osama Yousif Ali, Osama Yousif Ali Al Gibali

Abstract:

Introduction: Balanced nutrition is undeniably essential for maintaining health, body functions, and integrity of cell metabolism; however, some sick patients cannot tolerate oral or enteral feeding to meet their nutritional needs, so partial or total parenteral nutrition (PN) may be the most suitable alternative route in such situations. Dietitians are fundamental personnel among the medical team to ensure the proper provision of PN service, which was introduced in Sudan in the 1980s. Objective: The study aimed to recognize the dietitians' awareness of parenteral nutrition and their role in providing this service in Sudan – Khartoum State. Methodology: Formulated questionnaire forms composed of twelve questions were distributed to the dietitians working in four tertiary level hospitals. Results: The majority (75%) of the responded dietitians had reasonable knowledge about the importance of PN, its advantages, and its indications. Sixty percent of them were mindful of the PN side effects. Most of the dietitians were aware of the different assessment measurements and PN calculations and were exposed in their clinical practice to patients who were in need of PN, but only a few of them (about 30%) had the actual chance to participate in the formulation and application of PN therapy. The unavailability of the multidisciplinary team, lack of the required equipment and financial support, and associated complications were basic obstacles to the provision of long-term PN service in Khartoum state hospitals. Conclusion: Although dietitians in Khartoum state hospitals have good information about PN definition, indications, accesses, and assessment measures, they do not have enough knowledge and clinical exposure that make them confident to provide the PN service. Establishing a few models of parenteral nutrition units in tertiary hospitals will be of great help, as well as providing the dietitian's training in the area of parenteral nutrition. Further study can explore more requirements to run this service.

Keywords: nutrition support, dietitian, Sudan, parenteral nutrition, nutrition support team

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
15732 Airport Investment Risk Assessment under Uncertainty

Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

Abstract:

The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 408
15731 Port Miami in the Caribbean and Mesoamerica: Data, Spatial Networks and Trends

Authors: Richard Grant, Landolf Rhode-Barbarigos, Shouraseni Sen Roy, Lucas Brittan, Change Li, Aiden Rowe

Abstract:

Ports are critical for the US economy, connecting farmers, manufacturers, retailers, consumers and an array of transport and storage operators. Port facilities vary widely in terms of their productivity, footprint, specializations, and governance. In this context, Port Miami is considered as one of the busiest ports providing both cargo and cruise services in connecting the wider region of the Caribbean and Mesoamerica to the global networks. It is considered as the “Cruise Capital of the World and Global Gateway of the Americas” and “leading container port in Florida.” Furthermore, it has also been ranked as one of the top container ports in the world and the second most efficient port in North America. In this regard, Port Miami has made significant investments in the strategic and capital infrastructure of about US$1 billion, including increasing the channel depth and other onshore infrastructural enhancements. Therefore, this study involves a detailed analysis of Port Miami’s network, using publicly available multiple years of data about marine vessel traffic, cargo, and connectivity and performance indices from 2015-2021. Through the analysis of cargo and cruise vessels to and from Port Miami and its relative performance at the global scale from 2015 to 2021, this study examines the port’s long-term resilience and future growth potential. The main results of the analyses indicate that the top category for both inbound and outbound cargo is manufactured products and textiles. In addition, there are a lot of fresh fruits, vegetables, and produce for inbound and processed food for outbound cargo. Furthermore, the top ten port connections for Port Miami are all located in the Caribbean region, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Southeast USA. About half of the inbound cargo comes from Savannah, Saint Thomas, and Puerto Plata, while outbound cargo is from Puerto Corte, Freeport, and Kingston. Additionally, for cruise vessels, a significantly large number of vessels originate from Nassau, followed by Freeport. The number of passenger's vessels pre-COVID was almost 1,000 per year, which dropped substantially in 2020 and 2021 to around 300 vessels. Finally, the resilience and competitiveness of Port Miami were also assessed in terms of its network connectivity by examining the inbound and outbound maritime vessel traffic. It is noteworthy that the most frequent port connections for Port Miami were Freeport and Savannah, followed by Kingston, Nassau, and New Orleans. However, several of these ports, Puerto Corte, Veracruz, Puerto Plata, and Santo Thomas, have low resilience and are highly vulnerable, which needs to be taken into consideration for the long-term resilience of Port Miami in the future.

Keywords: port, Miami, network, cargo, cruise

Procedia PDF Downloads 78
15730 Energy Strategies for Long-Term Development in Kenya

Authors: Joseph Ndegwa

Abstract:

Changes are required if energy systems are to foster long-term growth. The main problems are increasing access to inexpensive, dependable, and sufficient energy supply while addressing environmental implications at all levels. Policies can help to promote sustainable development by providing adequate and inexpensive energy sources to underserved regions, such as liquid and gaseous fuels for cooking and electricity for household and commercial usage. Promoting energy efficiency. Increased utilization of new renewables. Spreading and implementing additional innovative energy technologies. Markets can achieve many of these goals with the correct policies, pricing, and regulations. However, if markets do not work or fail to preserve key public benefits, tailored government policies, programs, and regulations can achieve policy goals. The main strategies for promoting sustainable energy systems are simple. However, they need a broader recognition of the difficulties we confront, as well as a firmer commitment to specific measures. Making markets operate better by minimizing pricing distortions, boosting competition, and removing obstacles to energy efficiency are among the measures. Complementing the reform of the energy industry with policies that promote sustainable energy. Increasing investments in renewable energy. Increasing the rate of technical innovation at each level of the energy innovation chain. Fostering technical leadership in underdeveloped nations by transferring technology and enhancing institutional and human capabilities. promoting more international collaboration. Governments, international organizations, multilateral financial institutions, and civil society—including local communities, business and industry, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and consumers—all have critical enabling roles to play in the problem of sustainable energy. Partnerships based on integrated and cooperative approaches and drawing on real-world experience will be necessary. Setting the required framework conditions and ensuring that public institutions collaborate effectively and efficiently with the rest of society are common themes across all industries and geographical areas in order to achieve sustainable development. Powerful tools for sustainable development include energy. However, significant policy adjustments within the larger enabling framework will be necessary to refocus its influence in order to achieve that aim. Many of the options currently accessible will be lost or the price of their ultimate realization (where viable) will grow significantly if such changes don't take place during the next several decades and aren't started right enough. In any case, it would seriously impair the capacity of future generations to satisfy their demands.

Keywords: sustainable development, reliable, price, policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
15729 Effects of Parental Socio-Economic Status and Individuals' Educational Achievement on Their Socio-Economic Status: A Study of South Korea

Authors: Eun-Jeong Jang

Abstract:

Inequality has been considered as a core issue in public policy. Korea is categorized into one of the countries in the high level of inequality, which matters to not only current but also future generations. The relationship between individuals' origin and destination has an implication of intergenerational inequality. The previous work on this was mostly conducted at macro level using panel data to our knowledge. However, in this level, there is no room to track down what happened during the time between origin and destination. Individuals' origin is represented by their parents' socio-economic status, and in the same way, destination is translated into their own socio-economic status. The first research question is that how origin is related to the destination. Certainly, destination is highly affected by origin. In this view, people's destination is already set to be more or less than a reproduction of previous generations. However, educational achievement is widely believed as an independent factor from the origin. From this point of view, there is a possibility to change the path given by parents by educational attainment. Hence, the second research question would be that how education is related to destination and also, which factor is more influential to destination between origin and education. Also, the focus lies in the mediation of education between origin and destination, which would be the third research question. Socio-economic status in this study is referring to class as a sociological term, as well as wealth including labor and capital income, as an economic term. The combination of class and wealth would be expected to give more accurate picture about the hierarchy in a society. In some cases of non-manual and professional occupations, even though they are categorized into relatively high class, their income is much lower than those who in the same class. Moreover, it is one way to overcome the limitation of the retrospective view during survey. Education is measured as an absolute term, the years of schooling, and also as a relative term, the rank of school. Moreover, all respondents were asked the effort scaled by time intensity, self-motivation, before and during the course of their college based on a standard questionnaire academic achieved model provides. This research is based on a survey at an individual level. The target for sampling is an individual who has a job, regardless of gender, including income-earners and self-employed people and aged between thirties and forties because this age group is considered to reach the stage of job stability. In most cases, the researcher met respondents person to person visiting their work place or home and had a chance to interview some of them. One hundred forty individual data collected from May to August in 2017. It will be analyzed by multiple regression (Q1, Q2) and structural equation modeling (Q3).

Keywords: class, destination, educational achievement, effort, income, origin, socio-economic status, South Korea

Procedia PDF Downloads 265
15728 Evaluation of Ultrasonic Techniques for the Estimation of Air Voids in Asphalt Concrete

Authors: Majid Zargar, Frank Bullen, Ron Ayers

Abstract:

One of the important factors in the design of asphalt concrete mixes is the accurate measurement of air voids and their variable distribution. Both can have significant impact on long and short term fatigue and creep behaviour under traffic. While some simple methods exist for overall evaluation of air voids, measuring air void distribution in asphalt concrete is very complex, involving expensive techniques such as X-ray methodologies. The research reported in the paper investigated the use of non-destructive ultrasonic techniques as an alternative to estimate the amount of air voids and their distribution within asphalt samples. Seventy-four Standard AC–14 asphalt samples made with three types of bitumen; Multigrade, PMB and C320 were analysed using ultrasonic techniques. The results have illustrated that ultrasonic testing has the potential of being a rapid, accurate and cost-effective method of estimating air void distribution in asphalt.

Keywords: asphalt concrete, air voids, ultrasonic, mechanical behaviour

Procedia PDF Downloads 343
15727 Etiquette Learning and Public Speaking: Early Etiquette Learning and Its Impact on Higher Education and Working Professionals

Authors: Simran Ballani

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to call education professionals to implement etiquette and public speaking skills for preschoolers, primary, middle and higher school students. In this paper the author aims to present importance of etiquette learning and public speaking curriculum for preschoolers, reflect on experiences from implementation of the curriculum and discuss the effect of the said implementation on higher education/global job market. Author’s aim to introduce this curriculum was to provide children with innovative learning and all around development. This training of soft skills at kindergarten level can have a long term effect on their social behaviors which in turn can contribute to professional success once they are ready for campus recruitment/global job markets. Additionally, if preschoolers learn polite, appropriate behavior at early age, it will enable them to become more socially attentive and display good manners as an adult. It is easier to nurture these skills in a child rather than changing bad manners at adulthood. Preschool/Kindergarten education can provide the platform for children to learn these crucial soft skills irrespective of the ethnicity, economic or social background they come from. These skills developed at such early years can go a long way to shape them into better and confident individuals. Unfortunately, accessibility of the etiquette learning and public speaking skill education is not standardized in pre-primary or primary level and most of the time embedding into the kindergarten curriculum is next to nil. All young children should be provided with equal opportunity to learn these soft skills which are essential for finding their place in job market.

Keywords: Early Childhood Learning, , public speaking, , confidence building, , innovative learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
15726 Food Insecurity Assessment, Consumption Pattern and Implications of Integrated Food Security Phase Classification: Evidence from Sudan

Authors: Ahmed A. A. Fadol, Guangji Tong, Wlaa Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of food insecurity in Sudan, focusing on consumption patterns and their implications, employing the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) assessment framework. Years of conflict and economic instability have driven large segments of the population in Sudan into crisis levels of acute food insecurity according to the (IPC). A substantial number of people are estimated to currently face emergency conditions, with an additional sizeable portion categorized under less severe but still extreme hunger levels. In this study, we explore the multifaceted nature of food insecurity in Sudan, considering its historical, political, economic, and social dimensions. An analysis of consumption patterns and trends was conducted, taking into account cultural influences, dietary shifts, and demographic changes. Furthermore, we employ logistic regression and random forest analysis to identify significant independent variables influencing food security status in Sudan. Random forest clearly outperforms logistic regression in terms of area under curve (AUC), accuracy, precision and recall. Forward projections of the IPC for Sudan estimate that 15 million individuals are anticipated to face Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity conditions between October 2023 and February 2024. Of this, 60% are concentrated in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Khartoum State, with Greater Darfur alone representing 29% of this total. These findings emphasize the urgent need for both short-term humanitarian aid and long-term strategies to address Sudan's deepening food insecurity crisis.

Keywords: food insecurity, consumption patterns, logistic regression, random forest analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 67
15725 A Qualitative Inquiry of Institutional Responsiveness in Public Land Development in the Urban Areas in Sri Lanka

Authors: Priyanwada I. Singhapathirana

Abstract:

The public land ownership is a common phenomenon in many countries in the world however, the development approaches and the institutional structures are greatly diverse. The existing scholarship around public land development has been greatly limited to Europe and advanced Asian economies. Inferences of such studies seem to be inadequate and inappropriate to comprehend the peculiarities of public land development in developing Asian economies. The absence of critical inquiry on the public land ownership and the long-established institutional structures which govern the development has restrained these countries from institutional innovations. In this context, this research investigates the issues related to public land development and the institutional responses in Sri Lanka. This study introduces the concept of ‘Institutional Responsiveness’ in Public land development, which is conceptualized as the ability of the institutions to respond to the spatial, market and fiscal stimulus. The inquiry was carried out through in-depth interviews with five key informants from apex public agencies in order to explore the responsiveness of land institutions form decision-makers' perspectives. Further, the analysis of grey literature and recent media reports are used to supplement the analysis. As per the findings, long term abandonment of public lands and high transaction costs are some of the key issues in relation to public land development. The inability of the institutions to respond to the market and fiscal stimulus has left many potential public lands underutilized. As a result, the public sector itself and urban citizens have not been able to relish the benefits of the public lands in cities. Spatial analysis at the local scale is suggested for future studies in order to capture the multiple dimensions of the responsiveness of institutions to the development stimulus.

Keywords: institutions, public land, responsiveness, under-utilization

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
15724 Biologically Synthesized Palladium Nanoparticles Impregnated Porous Aluminium Catalyst in CO2 Detection

Authors: I. B. Patel, K. A. Mistry, A. H. Prajapati

Abstract:

Biologically synthesized colloidal Pd nanoparticles were impregnated on porous aluminium. In this paper, the obtained Pd/Al2O3 catalysts were characterized by XRD, SEM, and TEM. The effects of deposited films on the performances of Pd/Al2O3 in adsorption, reduction, and catalytic reaction of CO2 were investigated. The results showed that the deposited films can remarkably improve the dispersion of active components and enhance the reactivity of Pd/Al2O3 catalyst. The catalytic performance of Pd/Al2O3 in term of surface reaction is also enhanced in terms of sensitivity (SF = 850) obtained through conventional CBD method.

Keywords: palladium nanoparticles, Pd/Al2O3, carbon dioxide, aluminium catalyst

Procedia PDF Downloads 441
15723 Modelling Causal Effects from Complex Longitudinal Data via Point Effects of Treatments

Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

Abstract:

Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 202
15722 Analysis of Drought Flood Abrupt Alternation Events and there Impacts in Kenya

Authors: Betty Makena, Tsegaye Tadesse, Mark Svoboda

Abstract:

Global warming has intensified the frequency and intensity of extreme climate disasters and led to unpredictable weather conditions. Consequently, rapid shifts between drought and floods, known as Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration (DFAA), have become increasingly common. DFAA results in superimposed impacts of drought and floods within a short period, exacerbating the effects of the floods or drought event. Current disaster management plans often overlook DFAA events, as they primarily focus on either floods or drought. Therefore, effectively identifying DFAA events is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study aims to identify historical DFAA events in Kenya using the Long Cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration Index (LDFAI). The research will analyze the spatial distribution, temporal variation, and intensity of DFAA events from 1990 to 2023, as well as their socio-economic impacts. Understanding these events is important to develop more effective strategies to address the impacts of DFAA events. Findings from this study will inform decision making to develop coping strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of DFAA in Kenya.

Keywords: abrupt, alteration, drought, floods

Procedia PDF Downloads 65