Search results for: statistical physics

Authors: Sudhanshu Kumar

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Electrical discharge machining, also known as EDM, process is one of the most applicable machining process for removal of material in hard to machine materials like superalloy metals. EDM process utilizes electrical energy into sparks to erode the metals in presence of dielectric medium. In the present investigation, superalloy, Inconel 718 has been selected as workpiece and electrolytic copper as tool electrode. Attempt has been made to understand the effect of size of tool with varying cavity depth during drilling of hole through EDM process. In order to systematic investigate, tool size in terms of tool diameter and cavity depth along with other important electrical parameters namely, peak current, pulse-on time and servo voltage have been varied at three different values and the experiments has been designed using fractional factorial (Taguchi) method. Each experiment has been repeated twice under the same condition in order to understand the variability within the experiments. The effect of variations in parameters has been evaluated in terms of material removal rate, tool wear rate and surface roughness. Results revel that change in tool diameter during machining affects the response characteristics significantly. Larger tool diameter yielded 13% more material removal rate than smaller tool diameter. Analysis of the effect of variation in cavity depth is notable. There is no significant effect of cavity depth on material removal rate, tool wear rate and surface quality. This indicates that number of experiments can be performed to analyze other parameters effect even at smaller depth of cavity which can reduce the cost and time of experiments. Further, statistical analysis has been carried out to identify the interaction effect between parameters.

Keywords: EDM, Inconel 718, material removal rate, roughness, tool wear, tool size

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Authors: Supat Chaiyakul, Direk Sukkasem, Patnachapa Natthapanpaisith

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Sinlek rice flour beverage or instant product is a dietary supplement for dysphagia, or difficulty swallowing. It is also consumed by individuals who need to consume supplements to maintain their calorific needs. This product provides protein, fat, iron, and a high concentration of carbohydrate from rice flour. However, the application of native flour is limited due to its high viscosity. Starch modification by controlling starch retrogradation was used in this study. The research studies the effects of rice flour concentration and retrogradation treatment on the physical properties of instant Sinlek brown rice. The native rice flour, gelatinized rice flour, and flour gels retrograded under 4 °C for 3 and 7 days were investigated. From the statistical results, significant differences between native and retrograded flour were observed. The concentration of rice flour was the main factor influencing the swelling power, solubility, and pasting properties. With the increase in rice flour content from 10 to 15%, swelling power, peak viscosity, trough, and final viscosity decreased; but, solubility, pasting temperature, peak time, breakdown, and setback increased. The peak time, pasting temperature, peak viscosity, trough, and final viscosity decreased as the storage period increased from 3 to 7 days. The retrograded rice flour powders had lower pasting temperature, peak viscosity, breakdown, and final viscosity than the gelatinized and native flour powders. Reduction of starch viscosity by gelatinization and controlling starch retrogradation could allow for increased quantities of rice flour in instant rice beverages. Also, the treatment could increase the energy and nutrient densities of rice beverages without affecting the viscosity of this product.

Keywords: instant rice, pasting properties, pregelatinization, retrogradation

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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Authors: Anza-Vhudziki Mboyi, Ilunga Kamika, Maggy Momba

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The aim of this study was to ascertain the survival limit and capability of commonly found wastewater protozoan (Aspidisca sp, Trachelophyllum sp, and Peranema sp) and bacterial (Bacillus licheniformis, Brevibacillus laterosporus, and Pseudomonas putida) species to remove COD while exposed to commercial nanomaterials under varying pH conditions. The experimental study was carried out in modified mixed liquor media adjusted to various pH levels (pH 2, 7 and 10), and a comparative study was performed to determine the difference between the cytotoxicity effects of commercial zinc oxide (nZnO) and silver (nAg) nanomaterials (NMs) on the target wastewater microbial communities using standard methods. The selected microbial communities were exposed to lethal concentrations ranging from 0.015 g/L to 40 g/L for nZnO and from 0.015 g/L to 2 g/L for nAg for a period of 5 days of incubation at 30°C (100 r/min). Compared with the absence of NMs in wastewater mixed liquor, the relevant environmental concentration ranging between 10 µg/L and 100 µg/L, for both nZnO and nAg caused no adverse effects, but the presence of 20 g of nZnO/L and 0.65 g of nAg/L significantly inhibited microbial growth. Statistical evidence showed that nAg was significantly more toxic compared to nZnO, but there was an insignificant difference in toxicity between microbial communities and pH variations. A significant decrease in the removal of COD by microbial populations was observed in the presence of NMs with a moderate correlation of r = 0.3 to r = 0.7 at all pH levels. It was evident that there was a physical interaction between commercial NMs and target wastewater microbial communities; although not quantitatively assessed, cell morphology and cell death were observed. Such phenomena suggest the high resilience of the microbial community, but it is the accumulation of NMs that will have adverse effects on the performance in terms of COD removal.

Keywords: bacteria, biological treatment, chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nanomaterials, consortium, pH, protozoan

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Authors: Wenjiang Deng, Tian Mou, Yudi Pawitan, Trung Nghia Vu

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Estimation of isoform-level gene expression from RNA-seq data depends on simplifying assumptions, such as uniform reads distribution, that are easily violated in real data. Such violations typically lead to biased estimates. Most existing methods provide a bias correction step(s), which is based on biological considerations, such as GC content–and applied in single samples separately. The main problem is that not all biases are known. For example, new technologies such as single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) may introduce new sources of bias not seen in bulk-cell data. This study introduces a method called XAEM based on a more flexible and robust statistical model. Existing methods are essentially based on a linear model Xβ, where the design matrix X is known and derived based on the simplifying assumptions. In contrast, XAEM considers Xβ as a bilinear model with both X and β unknown. Joint estimation of X and β is made possible by simultaneous analysis of multi-sample RNA-seq data. Compared to existing methods, XAEM automatically performs empirical correction of potentially unknown biases. XAEM implements an alternating expectation-maximization (AEM) algorithm, alternating between estimation of X and β. For speed XAEM utilizes quasi-mapping for read alignment, thus leading to a fast algorithm. Overall XAEM performs favorably compared to other recent advanced methods. For simulated datasets, XAEM obtains higher accuracy for multiple-isoform genes, particularly for paralogs. In a differential-expression analysis of a real scRNA-seq dataset, XAEM achieves substantially greater rediscovery rates in an independent validation set.

Keywords: alternating EM algorithm, bias correction, bilinear model, gene expression, RNA-seq

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Authors: Wern Lin Yeo, Choo Kim Tan, Sook Ling Lew

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Mathematics anxiety refers to the feeling of anxious when one having difficulties in solving mathematical problem. Mathematics anxiety is the most common type of anxiety among other types of anxiety which occurs among the students. However, level of anxiety among males and females are different. There were few past study were conducted to determine the relationship of anxiety and gender but there were still did not have an exact results. Hence, the purpose of this study is to determine the relationship of anxiety level between male and female undergraduates at a private university in Malaysia. Convenient sampling method used in this study in which the students were selected based on the grouping assigned by the faculty. There were 214 undergraduates who registered the probability courses had participated in this study. Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) was the instrument used in study which used to determine students’ anxiety level towards probability. Reliability and validity of instrument was done before the major study was conducted. In the major study, students were given briefing about the study conducted. Participation of this study were voluntary. Students were given consent form to determine whether they agree to participate in the study. Duration of two weeks were given for students to complete the given online questionnaire. The data collected will be analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) to determine the level of anxiety. There were three anxiety level, i.e., low, average and high. Students’ anxiety level were determined based on their scores obtained compared with the mean and standard deviation. If the scores obtained were below mean and standard deviation, the anxiety level was low. If the scores were at below and above the mean and between one standard deviation, the anxiety level was average. If the scores were above the mean and greater than one standard deviation, the anxiety level was high. Results showed that both of the gender were having average anxiety level. Males having high frequency of three anxiety level which were low, average and high anxiety level as compared to females. Hence, the mean values obtained for males (M = 3.62) was higher than females (M = 3.42). In order to be significant of anxiety level among the gender, the p-value should be less than .05. The p-value obtained in this study was .117. However, this value was greater than .05. Thus, there was no significant difference of anxiety level among the gender. In other words, there was no relationship of anxiety level with the gender.

Keywords: anxiety level, gender, mathematics anxiety, probability and statistics

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Authors: Yong Hwang, Kang Yeol Suh, Yundeok Jang, Tae Hoon Kim

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Introduction: Rhabdomyolysis is a syndrome characterized by muscle necrosis and the release of intracellular muscle constituents into the circulation. Acute kidney injury is a potential complication of severe rhabdomyolysis and the prognosis is substantially worse if renal failure develops. We try to identify the factors that were predictive of AKI in severe trauma patients with rhabdomyolysis. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted at the emergency department of a level Ⅰ trauma center. Patients enrolled that initial creatine phosphokinase (CPK) levels were higher than 1000 IU with acute multiple trauma, and more than 18 years older from Oct. 2012 to June 2016. We collected demographic data (age, gender, length of hospital day, and patients’ outcome), laboratory data (ABGA, lactate, hemoglobin. hematocrit, platelet, LDH, myoglobin, liver enzyme, and BUN/Cr), and clinical data (Injury Mechanism, RTS, ISS, AIS, and TRISS). The data were compared and analyzed between AKI and Non-AKI group. Statistical analyses were performed using IMB SPSS 20.0 statistics for Window. Results: Three hundred sixty-four patients were enrolled that AKI group were ninety-six and non-AKI group were two hundred sixty-eight. The base excess (HCO3), AST/ALT, LDH, and myoglobin in AKI group were significantly higher than non-AKI group from laboratory data (p ≤ 0.05). The injury severity score (ISS), revised Trauma Score (RTS), Abbreviated Injury Scale 3 and 4 (AIS 3 and 4) were showed significant results in clinical data. The patterns of CPK level were increased from first and second day, but slightly decreased from third day in both group. Seven patients had received hemodialysis treatment despite the bleeding risk and were survived in AKI group. Conclusion: We recommend that HCO3, CPK, LDH, and myoglobin should be checked and be concerned about ISS, RTS, AIS with injury mechanism at the early stage of treatment in the emergency department.

Keywords: acute kidney injury, emergencies, multiple trauma, rhabdomyolysis

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Authors: Merav Ben Natan, May Revach, Or Sade, Yaniv Yonay, Yaron Berkovich

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Background: The inclusion of nurse practitioners (NPs) specializing in orthopedics holds promise for enhancing the quality of care for orthopedic patients. Understanding patients’ perspectives on this role is crucial for evaluating the feasibility and acceptance of integrating NPs into orthopedic settings. This study aims to explore the receptiveness of orthopedic patients to treatment by orthopedic NPs and examines potential associations between patients’ willingness to engage with NPs, their familiarity with the NP role, perceptions of nursing, and satisfaction with orthopedic nursing care. Methods: This cross-sectional study involved patients admitted to an orthopedic department at a central Israeli hospital between January and February 2023. Data was collected using a validated questionnaire consisting of five sections, reviewed by content experts. Statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS and included descriptive statistics, independent samples t-tests, Pearson correlations, and linear regression. Results: Participants in the study showed a moderate willingness to receive treatment from orthopedic NPs, with more than two-thirds expressing strong openness. Patients were generally receptive to NPs performing various clinical tasks, though there was less enthusiasm for NPs’ involvement in medication management and preoperative evaluations. Positive attitudes towards nurses and familiarity with the NP role were significant predictors of patient receptiveness to NP treatment. Conclusion: Patient acceptance of orthopedic NPs varies across different aspects of care. While there is a general willingness to receive care from NPs, these nuanced preferences must be considered when implementing NPs in orthopedic settings. Awareness and positive perceptions of the NP role play crucial roles in shaping patients’ willingness to engage with NPs.

Keywords: orthopedic nurse practitioners, patient receptiveness, perceptions of nursing, clinical tasks

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Authors: Georgi Y. Georgiev, Matthew Brouillet

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This research applies the power of agent-based modeling to a pivotal question at the intersection of biology, computer science, physics, and complex systems theory about the self-organization processes in open, complex, non-equilibrium thermodynamic systems. Central to this investigation is the principle of Maximum Entropy Production (MEP). This principle suggests that such systems evolve toward states that optimize entropy production, leading to the formation of structured environments. It is hypothesized that guided by the least action principle, open thermodynamic systems identify and follow the shortest paths to transmit energy and matter, resulting in maximal entropy production, internal structure formation, and a decrease in internal entropy. Concurrently, it is predicted that there will be an increase in system information as more information is required to describe the developing structure. To test this, an agent-based model is developed simulating an ant colony's formation of a path between a food source and its nest. Utilizing the Netlogo software for modeling and Python for data analysis and visualization, self-organization is quantified by calculating the decrease in system entropy based on the potential states and distribution of the ants within the simulated environment. External entropy production is also evaluated for information increase and efficiency improvements in the system's action. Simulations demonstrated that the system begins at maximal entropy, which decreases as the ants form paths over time. A range of system behaviors contingent upon the number of ants are observed. Notably, no path formation occurred with fewer than five ants, whereas clear paths were established by 200 ants, and saturation of path formation and entropy state was reached at populations exceeding 1000 ants. This analytical approach identified the inflection point marking the transition from disorder to order and computed the slope at this point. Combined with extrapolation to the final path entropy, these parameters yield important insights into the eventual entropy state of the system and the timeframe for its establishment, enabling the estimation of the self-organization rate. This study provides a novel perspective on the exploration of self-organization in thermodynamic systems, establishing a correlation between internal entropy decrease rate and external entropy production rate. Moreover, it presents a flexible framework for assessing the impact of external factors like changes in world size, path obstacles, and friction. Overall, this research offers a robust, replicable model for studying self-organization processes in any open thermodynamic system. As such, it provides a foundation for further in-depth exploration of the complex behaviors of these systems and contributes to the development of more efficient self-organizing systems across various scientific fields.

Keywords: complexity, self-organization, agent based modelling, efficiency

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Authors: Wajeeha Shahid

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The study was designed to assess the impact of transformational and transactional leadership styles on work motivation and organizational commitment among faculty members of universities of Punjab. 713 faculty members were selected as sample through convenient random sampling technique. Three self-constructed questionnaires namely Leadership Styles Questionnaire (LSQ), Work Motivation Questionnaire (WMQ) and Organizational Commitment Questionnaire (OCMQ) were used as research instruments. Major objectives of the study included assessing the effect and impact of transformational and transactional leadership styles on work motivation and organizational commitment. Theoretical frame work of the study included Idealized Influence, Inspirational Motivation, Intellectual Stimulation, Individualized Consideration, Contingent Rewards and Management by Exception as independent variables and Extrinsic motivation, Intrinsic motivation, Affective commitment, Continuance commitment and Normative commitment as dependent variables. SPSS Version 21 was used to analyze and tabulate data. Cronbach's Alpha reliability, Pearson Correlation and Multiple regression analysis were applied as statistical treatments for the analysis. Results revealed that Idealized Influence correlated significantly with intrinsic motivation and Affective commitment whereas Contingent rewards had a strong positive correlation with extrinsic motivation and affective commitment. Multiple regression models revealed a variance of 85% for transformational leadership style over work motivation and organizational commitment. Whereas transactional style as a predictor manifested a variance of 79% for work motivation and 76% for organizational commitment. It was suggested that changing organizational cultures are demanding more from their leadership. All organizations need to consider transformational leadership style as an important part of their equipment in leveraging both soft and hard organizational targets.

Keywords: leadership styles, work motivation, organizational commitment, faculty member

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Authors: Sajjad Shojaeidoust, Mohsen Ghanbarzadeh, Abdolhamid Habibi

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Exercise-induced bronchospasm (EIB) is a transitory condition of airflow obstruction that is associated with physical activities. It is noted that high ventilation can lead to an increase in the heat and reduce in the moisture in airways resistance of trachea. Also causes of pathophysiological mechanism are EIB. Accordingly, studying some parameters of pulmonary function (FVC, FEV1) among active people seems quintessential. The aim of this study was to analyze bronchospasm following the implementation of a program of maximum aerobic exercise in active men at Chamran University of Ahwaz. Method: In this quasi-experimental study, the population consisted of all students at Chamran University. Among from 55 participants, of which, 15 were randomly selected as the experimental group. In this study, the size of the maximum oxygen consumption was initially measured, and then, based on the maximum oxygen consumed, the active individuals were identified. After five minutes’ warm-up, Strand treadmill exercise test was taken (one session) and pulmonary parameters were measured at both pre- and post-tests (spirometer). After data normalization using KS and non-normality of the data, the Wilcoxon test was used to analyze the data. The significance level for all statistical surveys was considered p≤0/05. Results: The results showed that the ventilation factors and bronchospasm (FVC, FEV1) in the pre-test and post-test resulted in no significant difference among the active people (p≥0/05). Discussion and conclusion: Based on the results observed in this study, it appears that pulmonary indices in active individuals increased after aerobic test. The increase in this indicator in active people is due to increased volume and elasticity of the lungs as well. In other words, pulmonary index is affected by rib muscles. It is considered that progress over respiratory muscle strength and endurance has raised FEV1 in the active cases.

Keywords: aerobic active maximum, bronchospasm, pulmonary function, spirometer

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Authors: Nino Chikhladze, Tamar Dochviri, Nato Pitskhelauri, Maia Bitskhinashvili

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Population aging is a key social and demographic trend of the 21st century. Falls represent a prevalent geriatric syndrome that poses significant risks to the health and independence of older adults. The World Health Organization notes a lack of comprehensive data on falls in low- and middle-income countries, complicating the creation of effective prevention programs. To the authors’ best knowledge, no such studies have been conducted in Georgia. The aim of the study is to explore the epidemiology of falls in the elderly population. The hospitalization database of the National Center for Disease Control and Public Health of Georgia was used for the retrospective study. Falls-related injuries were identified using ICD-10 classifications using the class XIX (S and T codes) and class XX for the type of injury (V-Y codes). Statistical data analyses were done using SPSS software version 23.0. The total number of fall-related hospitalizations for individuals aged 65 and older from 2015 to 2021 was 29,697. The study revealed that falls accounted for an average of 63% (ranging from 59% to 66%) of all hospitalizations and 68% (ranging from 65% to 70%) of injury-related hospitalizations during this period. The 69% of all patients were women and 31%-men (Chi2=4482.1, p<0.001). The highest rate of hospitalization was in the age groups 80-84 and 75-79. The probability of fall-related hospitalization was significantly higher in women (p<0.001) compared to men in all age groups except 65-69 years. In the target age group of 65 years and older, the probability of hospitalization increased significantly with an increase in age (p<0.001). The study's results can be leveraged to create evidence-based awareness programs, design targeted multi-domain interventions addressing specific risk factors, and enhance the quality of geriatric healthcare services in Georgia.

Keywords: elderly population, falls, geriatric patients, hospitalization, injuries

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Authors: Layan Moussa, Darine Salam, Samir Mustapha

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Heavy metal contamination in agricultural soils in Lebanon poses serious environmental and health problems. Intensive efforts are employed to improve existing quantification methods of heavy metals in contaminated environments since conventional detection techniques have shown to be time-consuming, tedious, and costly. The implication of hyperspectral remote sensing in this field is possible and promising. However, factors impacting the efficiency of hyperspectral imaging in detecting and quantifying heavy metals in agricultural soils were not thoroughly studied. This study proposes to assess the use of hyperspectral imaging for the detection of Ni in agricultural clay soil collected from the Bekaa Valley, a major agricultural area in Lebanon, under different contamination levels and soil moisture content. Soil samples were contaminated with Ni, with concentrations ranging from 150 mg/kg to 4000 mg/kg. On the other hand, soil with background contamination was subjected to increased moisture levels varying from 5 to 75%. Hyperspectral imaging was used to detect and quantify Ni contamination in the soil at different contamination levels and moisture content. IBM SPSS statistical software was used to develop models that predict the concentration of Ni and moisture content in agricultural soil. The models were constructed using linear regression algorithms. The spectral curves obtained reflected an inverse correlation between both Ni concentration and moisture content with respect to reflectance. On the other hand, the models developed resulted in high values of predicted R2 of 0.763 for Ni concentration and 0.854 for moisture content. Those predictions stated that Ni presence was well expressed near 2200 nm and that of moisture was at 1900 nm. The results from this study would allow us to define the potential of using the hyperspectral imaging (HSI) technique as a reliable and cost-effective alternative for heavy metal pollution detection in contaminated soils and soil moisture prediction.

Keywords: heavy metals, hyperspectral imaging, moisture content, soil contamination

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Authors: Farshad Ghodoosi

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This article analyzes the effect of supervening events in contracts. Contracts serve an important function: allocation of risks. In spite of its importance, the case law and the doctrine are messy and inconsistent. This article provides a fresh look at excuse doctrines (i.e., force majeure, impracticability, impossibility, and frustration) with a focus on force majeure clauses. The article makes the following contributions: First, it furnishes a new conceptual and theoretical framework of excuse doctrines. By distilling the decisions, it shows that excuse doctrines rests on the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. Second, it analyzes force majeure clauses used by S&P 500 companies to understand the stickiness and similarity of such clauses and the events they cover. Third, using computational and statistical tools, it analyzes US cases since 1810 in order to assess the weight given to the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. It shows that the control factor plays an important role in force majeure analysis, while the contractual interpretation is the least important factor. The Article concludes that it is the standard for control -whether the supervening event is beyond the control of the party- that determines the outcome of cases in the force majeure context and not necessarily the contractual language. This article has important implications on COVID-19-related contractual cases. Unlike the prevailing narrative that it is the language of the force majeure clause that’s determinative, this article shows that the primarily focus of the inquiry will be on whether the effects of COVID-19 have been beyond the control of the promisee. Normatively, the Article suggests that the trifactor of control, foreseeability, and contractual language are not effective for allocation of legal risks in times of crises. It puts forward a novel approach to force majeure clauses whereby that the courts should instead focus on the degree to which parties have relied on (expected) performance, in particular during the time of crisis.

Keywords: contractual risks, force majeure clauses, foreseeability, control, contractual language, computational analysis

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Authors: Som Pal Baliyan

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The purpose of this quantitative study was to analyze farm management skills in broiler poultryproducers in Botswana. The study adopted a descriptive and correlation research design. The population of the study was the poultry farm operators who had been in broiler poultry farming at least for two years. Based on the information from literature, a questionnaire was constructed for data collection on seven areas of farm management skills namely; planning skills, accounting and financial management skills, production management skills, product procurement and marketing skills, decision making skills, risk management skills, and specific technical skills. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were accomplished by a panel of experts and by calculating the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, respectively. Data were collected through a survey of 60 randomly sampled poultry farm operators in Botswana. Data were analyzed through descriptive statistical tools whereby the level of farm management skills were determined by calculating means and standard deviations of the management skills among the broiler producers. The level of farm management skills in broilers producers was discussed. All the seven farm management skills were ranked based on their calculated means. The specific technical skills and risk management skills were the highest and the lowest ranked farm management skills, respectively.Findings revealed that the broiler producers had skills above the average level only in specific technical skills whereas the skill levels in the remaining six farm management skills under study were found below the average level. This prevailing low level of farm management skills can be justified asthe cause of failure or poor performance of the broiler poultry farms in Botswana. Therefore, in order to improve the efficiency and productivityin broiler production in the country, it was recommended that the broiler poultry producers should be adequately trained in areas of planning skills, financial management skills, production management skills, product procurement and marketing skills, decision making skills and risk management skills.

Keywords: poultry production, broiler production, management skills, levels of skills

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Authors: Isaac Kayode Ogunlade

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Data acquisition (DAQ) is the process by which physical phenomena from the real world are transformed into an electrical signal(s) that are measured and converted into a digital format for processing, analysis, and storage by a computer. The DAQ is designed using PIC18F4550 microcontroller, communicating with Personal Computer (PC) through USB (Universal Serial Bus). The research deployed initial knowledge of data acquisition system and embedded system to develop a weather data acquisition device using LM35 sensor to measure weather parameters and the use of Artificial Intelligence(Artificial Neural Network - ANN)and statistical approach(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average – ARIMA) to predict precipitation (rainfall). The device is placed by a standard device in the Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA) to know the performance evaluation of the device. Both devices (standard and designed) were subjected to 180 days with the same atmospheric condition for data mining (temperature, relative humidity, and pressure). The acquired data is trained in MATLAB R2012b environment using ANN, and ARIMAto predict precipitation (rainfall). Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Correction Square (R2), and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) was deplored as standardize evaluation to know the performance of the models in the prediction of precipitation. The results from the working of the developed device show that the device has an efficiency of 96% and is also compatible with Personal Computer (PC) and laptops. The simulation result for acquired data shows that ANN models precipitation (rainfall) prediction for two months (May and June 2017) revealed a disparity error of 1.59%; while ARIMA is 2.63%, respectively. The device will be useful in research, practical laboratories, and industrial environments.

Keywords: data acquisition system, design device, weather development, predict precipitation and (FUTA) standard device

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Authors: Lemi Tolu

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Background: Postpartum family planning (PPFP) focuses on the prevention of unintended and closely spaced pregnancies through the first 12 months following childbirth. Objective: This study assesses the barriers to uptake of long-term and permanent family planning methods among immediate post-partum mothers at Saint Paul’s Hospital Millennium Medical College in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methodology: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted from January 1 to June 30, 2017. The six months of study were used as strata, and systematic sampling used to select participants in each month. Post-partum mothers were interviewed using pretested structured questionnaires. Data entry and analysis were done using SPSS version 17. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regressions were fitted to identify determinants of post-partum family planning uptake. An OR with 95% CIs was calculated, and p values set at 005 were used to determine the statistical significance of associations. Results: Four hundred and twenty-two post-partum women were interviewed. Two hundred sixty-eight (63%) women received counselling on family planning, and 241 (66.8 %) got information about contraception. One hundred and fifty-two (45%) of the women accepted long-term and permanent contraception on their immediate postpartum period before discharge. Contraceptive counselling (OR = 2.13, 95% CI 1.004-3.331), getting information from the health facility (OR = 15.15, 95% CI 1.848-19.242), and partner support (OR = 1.367, 95% CI 1.175-2.771) were significantly associated with long-term and permanent contraception uptake. Conclusion: Postpartum counselling on family planning and provision of contraception information improve immediate postpartum FP acceptance, and, hence postpartum programs need to strengthen such services.

Keywords: contraception, immediate postpartum, long-term family planning, post-partum family planning

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Authors: Julius Adebayo John

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The objective of this study is to compare the use of medicinal plants and Conventional medicine intervention in the management of HBV among Ibadan populace. A purposive sampling technique was used to administer questionnaires at 2 places, namely, the University College Hospital and Total Healthcare Diagnostic Centre, Ibadan, where viral loads are carried out. A EuroQol (EQ – 5D) was adopted to collect data. Descriptive and inferential analyses were performed. Also, ANOVA, Correlation, charts, and tables were used. Findings revealed a high prevalence of HBV among female respondents and sample between ages 26years to 50years. Results showed that the majority discovered their health status through free HBV tests. Analysis indicated that the use of medicinal plant extract is cost-effective in 73% of cases. Rank order utility derived from medicinal plants is higher than other interventions. Correlation analysis performed for the current health status of respondents were significant at P<0.01 against the intervention management adopted (0.046), cost of treatment (0.549), utility (0.407) at P<0.00, duration of the treatment (0.604) at P<0.01; viral load before treatment (-0.142) not significant at P<0.01, the R2 (72.2%) showed the statistical variance in respondents current health status as explained by the independent variables. Respondents gained quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of between 1year to 3years. Suggestions were made for a public-private partnership effort against HBV with emphasis on periodic screening, viral load test subsidy, and free vaccination of people with –HBV status. Promoting phytomedicine through intensive research with strong regulation of herbal practitioners will go a long way in alleviating the burdens of the disease in society.

Keywords: medicinal plant, HBV management interventions, utility, QALYs, ibadan metropolis

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Authors: Endah Tri Lestari, Mustafa Mahmud Amin, Elmeida Effendy

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Background: Vitamin D levels with schizophrenia is lower than the control due to lifestyle and physical health factors such as smoking, increases of body mass index, inactivity, and social withdrawal including decreases of sunlight exposure. Asia has the lowest average of vitamin D serum levels and Europe with lighter colored skin has higher serum levels of vitamin D. Indonesia is a tropical region in the area of the equator, and has only two seasons: the rainy season and summer. The Indonesian people are known as a nation that has a diversity of ethnic groups that exist in many areas. Each tribe has differences in living habits. Ethnic diversity, culture, religion, customs, geographical location, this is reflected in our daily lives that will affect the levels of vitamin D in patients with schizophrenic. Individuals with darker skin tend to be deficient in vitamin D and increases the chance of schizophrenia than the general population. Aims: To determine the difference of vitamin D serum by ethnicity between Bataknese and Malayan schizophrenic patient. Methods: This study was an analytical study to recruited 60 subjects of schizophrenic male patient (30 Bataknese and 30 Malayan), aged between 15 to 55 years old, period at May - November 2016, the acute phase with no agitation. Statistical analysis was using T- independent test. Blood sample for vitamin D serum was using ELFA method. Results: The vitamin D serum levels were lower in Bataknese ethnic group schizophrenic patients in highland than Malayan ethnic group in lowland, reaching statistically (22.9±3.33 ng/ml) vs (27.9±4.19 ng/ml) p < 0,001. Conclusion: There are significant differences of vitamin D serum Status by Ethnicity between Bataknese in the Highland and Malayan in the Lowland on Schizophrenic Patient in North Sumatera.

Keywords: schizophrenia, serum vitamin D, ethnicity

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Authors: G. C. Joshi, M. Paul, B. K. Kalita, V. Ranga, J. S. Rawat, P. S. Rawat

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Being a habitat of the global village, every place has established connection through the strength and power of social media piercing through the political boundaries. Social media is a digital platform, where people across the world can interact as it has advantages of being universal, anonymous, easily accessible, indirect interaction, gathering and sharing information. The power of social media lies in the intensity of sharing extreme opinions or feelings, in contrast to the personal interactions which can be easily mapped in the form of Sentiment Mapping. The easy access to social networking sites such as Facebook, Twitter and blogs made unprecedented opportunities for citizens to voice their opinions loaded with dynamics of emotions. These further influence human thoughts where social media plays a very active role. A recent incident of public importance was selected as a case study to map the sentiments of people through Twitter. Understanding those dynamics through the eye of an ordinary people can be challenging. With the help of R-programming language and by the aid of GIS techniques sentiment maps has been produced. The emotions flowing worldwide in the form of tweets were extracted and analyzed. The number of tweets had diminished by 91 % from 25/08/2017 to 31/08/2017. A boom of sentiments emerged near the origin of the case, i.e., Delhi, Haryana and Punjab and the capital showed maximum influence resulting in spillover effect near Delhi. The trend of sentiments was prevailing more as neutral (45.37%), negative (28.6%) and positive (21.6%) after calculating the sentiment scores of the tweets. The result can be used to know the spatial distribution of digital penetration in India, where highest concentration lies in Mumbai and lowest in North East India and Jammu and Kashmir.

Keywords: sentiment mapping, digital literacy, GIS, R statistical language, spatio-temporal

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: C. Brierley, H. El-Farahaty, A. Farhan

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The Leeds Parallel Corpus of Arabic-English Constitutions is a parallel corpus for the Arabic legal domain. Analysis of legal language via Corpus Linguistics techniques is an important development. In legal proceedings, a corpus-based approach to disambiguating meaning is set to replace the dictionary as an interpretative tool, and legal scholarship in the States is now attuned to the potential for Text Analytics over vast quantities of text-based legal material, following the business and medical industries. This trend is reflected in Europe: the interdisciplinary research group in Computer Assisted Legal Linguistics mines big data collections of legal and non-legal texts to analyse: legal interpretations; legal discourse; the comprehensibility of legal texts; conflict resolution; and linguistic human rights. This paper focuses on ‘dignity’ as an important aspect of the overarching concept of human rights in current constitutions across the Arab world. We have compiled a parallel, Arabic-English raw text corpus (169,861 Arabic words and 205,893 English words) from reputable websites such as the World Intellectual Property Organisation and CONSTITUTE, and uploaded and queried our corpus in Sketch Engine. Our most challenging task was sentence-level alignment of Arabic-English data. This entailed manual intervention to ensure correspondence on a one-to-many basis since Arabic sentences differ from English in length and punctuation. We have searched for morphological variants of ‘dignity’ (رامة ك, karāma) in the Arabic data and inspected their English translation equivalents. The term occurs most frequently in the Sudanese constitution (10 instances), and not at all in the constitution of Palestine. Its most frequent collocate, determined via the logDice statistic in Sketch Engine, is ‘human’ as in ‘human dignity’.

Keywords: Arabic constitution, corpus-based legal linguistics, human rights, parallel Arabic-English legal corpora

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Authors: Behailu Shigute Habtemariam

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The aim of the study was to examine the effects of training load on some selected fitness performance variables of volleyball players in the case of U-17 female volleyball project players in the central Ethiopia region. Methods: In this study, quasi-experimental design was used. For the purpose of this study, twenty-three volleyball players were used as a subject from the two projects. The data collected through fitness performance assessment were analyzed and interpreted into a meaningful idea using manually as well as with computer in order to compare physical fitness variables and changes observed among participants. Those are taking part in the effects of training load on some selected physical fitness variables. The collected data were analyzed by means of the Statistical Package for Social Science version (SPSS V 20). The independent t-test was used to show the mean differences between the groups, and the paired T-test was used to compare the mean differences of the pre and post-training within each group. The level of significance will be set at Alfa 0.05. Results: The results are displayed using tables and figures. A significant difference was found in the mean differences of pre-test values (19.7 cm) and post-test values (37.5 cm) of the Durame city project on the flexibility test (MD =17.8 cm, P = 0.00). On the other hand, there was a significant difference in the mean difference of pre-test values of (18 cm) and post-test values (26.3 cm) of the Hosana city project on the flexibility test ( MD = 8.3 cm, P = 0.00). Conclusion: According to the results of the present studies, there were significant improvements from pre to post-test at Durame City and Hosana City projects on agility, flexibility, power, and speed fitness tests. On the other hand, a significant difference was not found before beginning the exercise between the two projects; however, a significant difference was found after 12 weeks of training.

Keywords: overload, performance, training, volleyball

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Authors: Chimuanya Osuji, Kido Uyamasi, Morgan Bradley

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Introduction: Obesity is a major risk factor for many chronic diseases, with higher rates occurring among certain populations. Even though disparities in obesity rates exist for those with disabilities, few studies have assessed the association between disability and obesity status. This study aims to examine the association between type of disability and obesity status among US adults during the Covid-19 pandemic (2019-2021). Methods: Data for this cross-sectional study was obtained from the 2019, 2020 and 2021 NHIS. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between each type of disability and obesity status (reference= normal/underweight). Each model adjusted for demographic, health status and health-related quality of life variables. Statistical analyses were conducted using SAS version 9.4. Results: Of the 82,632 US adults who completed the NHIS in 2019, 2020, and 2021. 8.9% (n= 7,354) reported at least 1 disability-related condition. Respondents reported having a disability across vision (1.5%), hearing (1.5%), mobility (5.3%), communication (0.8%), cognition (2.4%) and self-care (1.1%) domains. After adjusting for covariates, adults with at least 1 disability-related condition were about 30% more likely to have moderate-severe obesity (AOR=1.3; 95% CI=1.11, 1.53). Mobility was the only disability category positively associated with mild obesity (AOR=1.16; 95% CI=1.01, 1.35) and moderate/severe obesity (AOR=1.6; 95% CI=1.35, 1.89). Individuals with vision disability were about 35% less likely to have mild obesity (AOR=0.66; 95% CI=0.51, 0.86) and moderate-severe obesity (AOR=0.66; 95% CI= 0.48, 0.9). Individuals with hearing disability were 28% less likely to have mild obesity (AOR=0.72; 95% CI= 0.56, 0.94). Individuals with communication disability were about 30% less likely to be overweight (AOR=0.66; 95% CI=0.47, 0.93) and 50% less likely to have mild obesity (AOR=0.45; 95% CI= 0.29, 0.71). Individuals with cognitive disability were about 25% less likely to have mild obesity and about 35% less likely to have moderate-severe obesity. Individuals with self-care disability were about 30% less likely to be overweight. Conclusion: Mobility-related disabilities are significantly associated with obesity status among adults residing in the United States. Researchers and policy makers should implement obesity intervention methods that can address the gap in obesity prevalence rates among those with and without disabilities.

Keywords: cognition, disability, mobility, obesity

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Authors: Ibrahim Umar, S Chindo, A Rajab

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Background: TB remains a disease of public health concern in Nigeria with an estimated incidence rate of 219/100,000. Kano has the second highest TB burden in Nigeria and is the leading state with the highest consistent yearly TB notification. House-to-house (H2H) active case search in the community was found to have major contribution to the total TB notification in the state. Aims and Objective: To showcase the impact of H2H community active TB case search (ACF) to yearly TB notification in Kano State, Northern Nigeria from 2012 to 2022. Methodology: This is a retrospective descriptive study based on the analysis of data collected during the routine quarterly and yearly TB data collected in the state. Data was analyzed using the Power BI with statistical alpha level of significance <0.05. Results: Between 2012 and 2013 there was no House-to-house active TB case search in Nigeria and Kano had zero contribution to TB notification from the community in those years. However, in 2014 with the introduction of H2H Active TB Case Search Kano notified 6,014 TB cases out of which 113 came from the community ACF that translated to 2% contribution to total TB notification. From 2014 to 2022 there was progressive increase in community contribution to TB case notification from 113 out of 6,014 total TB patients notified (2012) to 11,799 out of 26,371 TB patients notified (2022) in Kano State. This translated to 45% increase in community contribution to total TB case notification. Discussion: Remarkable increase in community contribution to total TB case notification in Kano State was achieved in 2022 with 11,799 TB cases notified from the community Active TB case search to the total of 26,731 TB cases notified in Kano State, Nigeria. Conclusion: in research has shown that Community-based H2H Active TB Case Search through Community TB Workers (CTWs) is an excellent strategy in finding the missing TB cases towards Ending TB in the world.

Keywords: tuberculosis(TB), active case search (ACF), house-to-house (H2H), community TB workers (CTWs)

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Authors: Valiollah Babaeipour, Mahdi Rahaie

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food supplements are rich in specific nutrients and bioactive compounds that eliminate free radicals and improve cellular metabolism. The major bioactive compounds are found in bran and cereal sprouts. Secondary metabolites of these microorganisms have antioxidant properties that can be used alone or in combination with chemotherapy and radiation therapy to treat cancer. Biologically active compounds such as benzoquinone derivatives extracted from fermented wheat germ extract (FWGE) have several positive effects on the overall state of human health and strengthen the immune system. The present work describes the discontinuous fermentation of raw wheat germ for FWGE production through the simultaneous culture process using the probiotic strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Lactobacillus plantarum, and the possibility of using solid waste. To increase production efficiency, first to select important factors in the optimization of each fermentation process, using a factorial statistical scheme of stirring fraction (120 to 200 rpm), dilution of solids to solvent (1 to 8-12), fermentation time (16 to 24 hours) and strain to wheat germ ratio (20% to 50%) were studied and then simultaneous culture was performed to increase the yields of 2 and 6 dimethoxybenzoquinone (2,6-DMBQ). Since 2 and 6 dimethoxy benzoquinone were fermented as the main biologically active compound in wheat germ extract, UV-Vis analysis was performed to confirm the presence of 2 and 6 dimethoxy benzoquinone in the final product. In addition, 2,6-DMBQ of some products was isolated in a non-polar C-18 column and quantified using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Based on our findings, it can be concluded that the increase of 2 and 6 dimethoxybenzoquinone in the simultaneous culture of Saccharomyces cerevisiae - Lactobacillus plantarum compared to pure culture of Saccharomyces cerevisiae (from 1.89 mg / g) to 28.9% (2.66 mg / g) Increased.

Keywords: wheat germ, FWGE, saccharomyces cerevisiae, lactobacillus plantarum, co-culture, 2, 6-DMBQ

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Authors: Firsan Nova

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The average Indonesian watches 5.5 hours of TV a day. With a population of 242 million people and a Free-to-Air (FTA) TV penetration rate of 56%, that equates to 745 million hours of television watched each day. With such potential, it is no wonder that many companies are now attempting to get into the Pay TV market. Research firm Media Partner Asia has forecast in its study that the number of Indonesian pay-television subscribers will climb from 2.4 million in 2012 to 8.7 million by 2020, with penetration scaling up from 7 percent to 21 percent. Key drivers of market growth, the study says, include macro trends built around higher disposable income and a rising middle class, with leading players continuing to invest significantly in sales, distribution and content. New entrants, in the meantime, will boost overall prospects. This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of Market Attractiveness and the Core Competence on Value Creation and Competitive Advantage and its impact to Business Performance in the pay TV industry in Indonesia. The study using strategic management science approach with the census method in which all members of the population are as sample. Verification method is used to examine the relationship between variables. The unit of analysis in this research is all Indonesian Pay TV business units totaling 19 business units. The unit of observation is the director and managers of each business unit. Hypothesis testing is performed by using statistical Partial Least Square (PLS). The conclusion of the study shows that the market attractiveness affects business performance through value creation and competitive advantage. The appropriate value creation comes from the company ability to optimize its core competence and exploit market attractiveness. Value creation affects competitive advantage. The competitive advantage can be determined based on the company's ability to create value for customers and the competitive advantage has an impact on business performance.

Keywords: market attractiveness, core competence, value creation, competitive advantage, business performance

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Authors: Aleksandr Kavetskiy, Galina Yakubova, Nikolay Sargsyan, Stephen A. Prior, H. Allen Torbert

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The carbon sequestration question of modern times requires the development of an in-situ method of measuring soil carbon over large landmasses. Traditional chemical analytical methods used to evaluate large land areas require extensive soil sampling prior to processing for laboratory analysis; collectively, this is labor-intensive and time-consuming. An alternative method is to apply nuclear physics analysis, primarily in the form of pulsed fast-thermal neutron-gamma soil carbon analysis. This method is based on measuring the gamma-ray response that appears upon neutron irradiation of soil. Specific gamma lines with energies of 4.438 MeV appearing from neutron irradiation can be attributed to soil carbon nuclei. Based on measuring gamma line intensity, assessments of soil carbon concentration can be made. This method can be done directly in the field using a specially developed pulsed fast-thermal neutron-gamma system (PFTNA system). This system conducts in-situ analysis in a scanning mode coupled with GPS, which provides soil carbon concentration and distribution over large fields. The system has radiation shielding to minimize the dose rate (within radiation safety guidelines) for safe operator usage. Questions concerning the effect of neutron irradiation on soil health will be addressed. Information regarding absorbed neutron and gamma dose received by soil and its distribution with depth will be discussed in this study. This information was generated based on Monte-Carlo simulations (MCNP6.2 code) of neutron and gamma propagation in soil. Received data were used for the analysis of possible induced irradiation effects. The physical, chemical and biological effects of neutron soil irradiation were considered. From a physical aspect, we considered neutron (produced by the PFTNA system) induction of new isotopes and estimated the possibility of increasing the post-irradiation gamma background by comparisons to the natural background. An insignificant increase in gamma background appeared immediately after irradiation but returned to original values after several minutes due to the decay of short-lived new isotopes. From a chemical aspect, possible radiolysis of water (presented in soil) was considered. Based on stimulations of radiolysis of water, we concluded that the gamma dose rate used cannot produce gamma rays of notable rates. Possible effects of neutron irradiation (by the PFTNA system) on soil biota were also assessed experimentally. No notable changes were noted at the taxonomic level, nor was functional soil diversity affected. Our assessment suggested that the use of a PFTNA system with a neutron flux of 1e7 n/s for soil carbon analysis does not notably affect soil properties or soil health.

Keywords: carbon sequestration, neutron gamma analysis, radiation effect on soil, Monte-Carlo simulation

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Authors: Azadeh Mottaghi, Zeynab Shakeri

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Background: Eating disorders (ED) are group of psychological disorders that significantly impair physical health and psychosocial function. EDconsists wide range of morbidity such as loss of eating control, binge eating disorder(BED), night eating syndrome (NES), and bulimia nervosa. Eating behavior is a wide range term that includes food choices, eating patterns, eating problems. In this study, current knowledge will be discussed aboutcomparison of eating disorders and eating behaviors in morbid obese women with and without type 2 diabetes. Methods: 231 womenwith morbid obesity were included in the study.Loss of eating control, Binge eating disorder and Bulimia nervosa, Night eating syndrome, and eating behaviors and psychosocial factorswere assessed. SPSS version 20 was used for statistical analysis. A p-value of <0.05 was considered significant. Results: There was a significant difference between women with and without diabetes in case of binge eating disorder (76.3% vs. 47.3%, p=0.001). Women with the least Interpersonal support evaluation list (ISEL) scores had a higher risk of eating disorders, and it is more common among diabetics (29.31% vs. 30.45%, p= 0.050). There was no significant difference between depression level and BDI score among women with or without diabetes. Although 38.5% (n=56) of women with diabetes and 50% (n=71) of women without diabetes had minimal depression. The logistic regression model has shown that women without diabetes had lower odds of exhibiting BED (OR=0.28, 95% CI 0.142-0.552).Women with and without diabetes with high school degree (OR=5.54, 95% CI 2.46-9.45, P= 0.0001 & OR=6.52, 95% CI 3.15-10.56, respectively) and moderate depression level (OR=2.03, 95% CI 0.98-3.95 & OR=3.12, 95% CI 2.12-4.56, P= 0.0001) had higher odds of BED. Conclusion: The result of the present study shows that the odds of BED was lower in non-diabetic women with morbid obesity. Women with morbid obesity who had high school degree and moderate depression level had more odds for BED.

Keywords: eating disorders binge eating disorder, night eating syndrome, bulimia nervosa, morbid obesity

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Authors: Arragaw Alemayehu, Woldeamlak Bewket

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The aim of this study was to understand the influence of current climate variability on crop production in the central highlands of Ethiopia. We used monthly rainfall and temperature data from 132 points each representing a pixel of 10×10 km. The data are reconstructions based on station records and meteorological satellite observations. Production data of the five major crops in the area were collected from the Central Statistical Agency for the period 2004-2013 and for the main cropping season, locally known as Meher. The production data are at the Enumeration Area (EA ) level and hence the best available dataset on crop production. The results show statistically significant decreasing trends in March–May (Belg) rainfall in the area. However, June – September (Kiremt) rainfall showed increasing trends in Efratana Gidim and Menz Gera Meder which the latter is statistically significant. Annual rainfall also showed positive trends in the area except Basona Werana where significant negative trends were observed. On the other hand, maximum and minimum temperatures showed warming trends in the study area. Correlation results have shown that crop production and area of cultivation have positive correlation with rainfall, and negative with temperature. When the trends in crop production are investigated, most crops showed negative trends and below average production was observed. Regression results have shown that rainfall was the most important determinant of crop production in the area. It is concluded that current climate variability has a significant influence on crop production in the area and any unfavorable change in the local climate in the future will have serious implications for household level food security. Efforts to adapt to the ongoing climate change should begin from tackling the current climate variability and take a climate risk management approach.

Keywords: central highlands, climate variability, crop production, Ethiopia, regression, trend

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Authors: Andrew Kanzunguze, Lusayo Mwabumba, Jason K. Gilbertson, Dominic B. Gondwe, George Z. Nxumayo

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Knowledge about the spatio-temporal distribution of invasive plants in protected areas provides a base from which hypotheses explaining proliferation of plant invasions can be made alongside development of relevant invasive plant monitoring programs. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of bracken fern on the grassland plateau of Nyika National Park over the past 30 years (1986-2016) as well as to determine the current extent of the invasion. Remote sensing, machine learning, and statistical modelling techniques (object-based image analysis, image classification and linear regression analysis) in geographical information systems were used to determine both the spatial and temporal distribution of bracken fern in the study area. Results have revealed that bracken fern has been increasing coverage on the Nyika plateau at an estimated annual rate of 87.3 hectares since 1986. This translates to an estimated net increase of 2,573.1 hectares, which was recorded from 1,788.1 hectares (1986) to 4,361.9 hectares (2016). As of 2017 bracken fern covered 20,940.7 hectares, approximately 14.3% of the entire grassland plateau. Additionally, it was observed that the fern was distributed most densely around Chelinda camp (on the central plateau) as well as in forest verges and roadsides across the plateau. Based on these results it is recommended that Ecological Niche Modelling approaches be employed to (i) isolate the most important factors influencing bracken fern proliferation as well as (ii) identify and prioritize areas requiring immediate control interventions so as to minimize bracken fern proliferation in Nyika National Park.

Keywords: bracken fern, image classification, Landsat-8, Nyika National Park, spatio-temporal distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 180