Search results for: Langevin Dynamic and Mont Carlo Simulation.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5010

Search results for: Langevin Dynamic and Mont Carlo Simulation.

4950 Portfolio Simulation in GSM Cellular Telecommunication Industry for Company's Decision and Policies Making

Authors: M. Dachyar, Yudavedito

Abstract:

The rising growth of the GSM cellular phone industry has tightening competition level between providers in making strategies enhancing the market shares in Indonesia. Tsel, as one of those companies, has to determine the proper strategy to sustain as well as improve the market share without reducing its operational income level. Portfolio simulation model is designed with a dynamic system approach. The result of this research is a recommendation to the company by optimizing its technological policies, services, and promotions. The tariff policies and the signal quality should not be the main focus because this company has had a large number of customers and a good infrastructural condition.

Keywords: Telecommunication industry, simulation, dynamic system, portfolio, quality services.

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4949 Reducing Uncertainty of Monte Carlo Estimated Fatigue Damage in Offshore Wind Turbines Using FORM

Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

Abstract:

Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: Fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, monte carlo simulation, reliability, wind turbine.

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4948 Dynamic Modeling of Tow Flexible Link Manipulators

Authors: E. Abedi, A. Ahmadi Nadooshan, S. Salehi

Abstract:

Modeling and vibration of a flexible link manipulator with tow flexible links and rigid joints are investigated which can include an arbitrary number of flexible links. Hamilton principle and finite element approach is proposed to model the dynamics of flexible manipulators. The links are assumed to be deflection due to bending. The association between elastic displacements of links is investigated, took into account the coupling effects of elastic motion and rigid motion. Flexible links are treated as Euler-Bernoulli beams and the shear deformation is thus abandoned. The dynamic behavior due to flexibility of links is well demonstrated through numerical simulation. The rigid-body motion and elastic deformations are separated by linearizing the equations of motion around the rigid body reference path. Simulation results are shown on for both position and force trajectory tracking tasks in the presence of varying parameters and unknown dynamics remarkably well. The proposed method can be used in both dynamic simulation and controller design.

Keywords: Flexible manipulator, flexible link, dynamicmodeling, end point.

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4947 Development of a RAM Simulation Model for Acid Gas Removal System

Authors: Ainul Akmar Mokhtar, Masdi Muhammad, Hilmi Hussin, Mohd Amin Abdul Majid

Abstract:

A reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) model has been built for acid gas removal plant for system analysis that will play an important role in any process modifications, if required, for achieving its optimum performance. Due to the complexity of the plant, the model was based on a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) with a Monte Carlo simulation engine. The model has been validated against actual plant data as well as local expert opinions, resulting in an acceptable simulation model. The results from the model showed that the operation and maintenance can be further improved, resulting in reduction of the annual production loss.

Keywords: Acid gas removal plant, RAM model, Reliabilityblock diagram

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4946 System-Level Energy Estimation for SoC based on the Dynamic Behavior of Embedded Software

Authors: Yoshifumi Sakamoto, Kouichi Ono, Takeo Nakada, Yousuke Kubo, Hiroto Yasuura

Abstract:

This paper describes a system-level SoC energy consumption estimation method based on a dynamic behavior of embedded software in the early stages of the SoC development. A major problem of SOC development is development rework caused by unreliable energy consumption estimation at the early stages. The energy consumption of an SoC used in embedded systems is strongly affected by the dynamic behavior of the software. At the early stages of SoC development, modeling with a high level of abstraction is required for both the dynamic behavior of the software, and the behavior of the SoC. We estimate the energy consumption by a UML model-based simulation. The proposed method is applied for an actual embedded system in an MFP. The energy consumption estimation of the SoC is more accurate than conventional methods and this proposed method is promising to reduce the chance of development rework in the SoC development. ∈

Keywords: SoC, Embedded Sytem, Energy Consumption, Dynamic behavior, UML, Modeling, Model-based simulation

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4945 Dynamic Modeling of Wind Farms in the Jeju Power System

Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Sang-Hee Kang, Soon-Ryul Nam

Abstract:

In this paper, we develop a dynamic modeling of wind farms in the Jeju power system. The dynamic model of wind farms is developed to study their dynamic effects on the Jeju power system. PSS/E is used to develop the dynamic model of a wind farm composed of 1.5-MW doubly fed induction generators. The output of a wind farm is regulated based on pitch angle control, in which the two controllable parameters are speed and power references. The simulation results confirm that the pitch angle is successfully controlled, regardless of the variation in wind speed and output regulation.

Keywords: Dynamic model, Jeju power system, pitch angle control, PSS/E, wind farm.

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4944 Lumped Parameter Models for Numerical Simulation of the Dynamic Response of Hoisting Appliances

Authors: Giovanni Incerti, Luigi Solazzi, Candida Petrogalli

Abstract:

This paper describes three lumped parameters models for the study of the dynamic behavior of a boom crane. The models here proposed allows to evaluate the fluctuations of the load arising from the rope and structure elasticity and from the type of the motion command imposed by the winch. A calculation software was developed in order to determine the actual acceleration of the lifted mass and the dynamic overload during the lifting phase. Some application examples are presented, with the aim of showing the correlation between the magnitude of the stress and the type of the employed motion command.

Keywords: Crane, dynamic model, overloading condition, vibration.

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4943 The Optimal Public Debt Ceiling in Taiwan: A Simulation Approach

Authors: Ho Yuan-Hong, Hunag Chiung-Ju

Abstract:

This study conducts simulation analyses to find the optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan, while factoring in welfare maximization under a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The simulation is based on Taiwan's 2001 to 2011 economic data and shows that welfare is maximized at a debt/GDP ratio of 0.2, increases in the debt/GDP ratio leads to increases in both tax and interest rates and decreases in the consumption ratio and working hours. The study results indicate that the optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan is 20% of GDP, where if the debt/GDP ratio is greater than 40%, the welfare will be negative and result in welfare loss.

Keywords: Debt sustainability, optimal debt ceiling, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, welfare maximization.

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4942 Risk Assessment in Durations and Costs for Construction of Industrial Facilities in Egypt Using Equations and Computer

Authors: M. Kamal Elbokl, Negadi Kheira

Abstract:

Risk Evaluation is an important step in protecting your workers and your business, as well as complying with the law. It helps you focus on the risks that really matter in your workplace – the ones with the potential to cause real harm. We are in this paper introduce basics of risk assessment then we mention some of ways to risk evaluation by computer especially Monte Carlo simulation and Microsoft project.

We use Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) to deal with Risks in Industrial Facilities in Evaluation and Assessment for this risk. Using PERT Technique in Microsoft Project by the PERT toolbar and using PERTMASTER Program with Primavera Program we evaluate many hazards and make calculations for that by mathematical equation to make right decisions. We define and calculate risk factor and risk severity to ranking the type of the risk then dealing with it using in that many ways like probability computation, curves, and tables. By introducing variables in the equation of functions in computer programs we calculate the risk in the time and the cost in general case and then mention some examples in industrial facilities field.

Keywords: Risk, Industrial Facilities, PERT, Monte Carlo Simulation.

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4941 Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model

Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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4940 On Estimating the Headcount Index by Using the Logistic Regression Estimator

Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda

Abstract:

The problem of estimating a proportion has important applications in the field of economics, and in general, in many areas such as social sciences. A common application in economics is the estimation of the headcount index. In this paper, we define the general headcount index as a proportion. Furthermore, we introduce a new quantitative method for estimating the headcount index. In particular, we suggest to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the headcount index. Assuming a real data set, results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the traditional estimator of the headcount index.

Keywords: Poverty line, poor, risk of poverty, sample, Monte Carlo simulations.

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4939 Computer Modeling and Plant-Wide Dynamic Simulation for Industrial Flare Minimization

Authors: Sujing Wang, Song Wang, Jian Zhang, Qiang Xu

Abstract:

Flaring emissions during abnormal operating conditions such as plant start-ups, shut-downs, and upsets in chemical process industries (CPI) are usually significant. Flare minimization can help to save raw material and energy for CPI plants, and to improve local environmental sustainability. In this paper, a systematic methodology based on plant-wide dynamic simulation is presented for CPI plant flare minimizations under abnormal operating conditions. Since off-specification emission sources are inevitable during abnormal operating conditions, to significantly reduce flaring emission in a CPI plant, they must be either recycled to the upstream process for online reuse, or stored somewhere temporarily for future reprocessing, when the CPI plant manufacturing returns to stable operation. Thus, the off-spec products could be reused instead of being flared. This can be achieved through the identification of viable design and operational strategies during normal and abnormal operations through plant-wide dynamic scheduling, simulation, and optimization. The proposed study includes three stages of simulation works: (i) developing and validating a steady-state model of a CPI plant; (ii) transiting the obtained steady-state plant model to the dynamic modeling environment; and refining and validating the plant dynamic model; and (iii) developing flare minimization strategies for abnormal operating conditions of a CPI plant via a validated plant-wide dynamic model. This cost-effective methodology has two main merits: (i) employing large-scale dynamic modeling and simulations for industrial flare minimization, which involves various unit models for modeling hundreds of CPI plant facilities; (ii) dealing with critical abnormal operating conditions of CPI plants such as plant start-up and shut-down. Two virtual case studies on flare minimizations for start-up operation (over 50% of emission savings) and shut-down operation (over 70% of emission savings) of an ethylene plant have been employed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed study.

Keywords: Flare minimization, large-scale modeling and simulation, plant shut-down, plant start-up.

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4938 Dynamic Modelling and Virtual Simulation of Digital Duty-Cycle Modulation Control Drivers

Authors: J. Mbihi

Abstract:

This paper presents a dynamic architecture of digital duty-cycle modulation control drivers. Compared to most oversampling digital modulation schemes encountered in industrial electronics, its novelty is founded on a number of relevant merits including; embedded positive and negative feedback loops, internal modulation clock, structural simplicity, elementary building operators, no explicit need of samples of the nonlinear duty-cycle function when computing the switching modulated signal, and minimum number of design parameters. A prototyping digital control driver is synthesized and well tested within MATLAB/Simulink workspace. Then, the virtual simulation results and performance obtained under a sample of relevant instrumentation and control systems are presented, in order to show the feasibility, the reliability, and the versatility of target applications, of the proposed class of low cost and high quality digital control drivers in industrial electronics.

Keywords: Dynamic architecture, virtual simulation, duty-cycle modulation, digital control drivers, industrial electronics.

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4937 Using Simulation Modeling Approach to Predict USMLE Steps 1 and 2 Performances

Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

Abstract:

The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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4936 Simulator Dynamic Positioning System with Azimuthal Thruster

Authors: Robson C. Santos, Christian N. Barreto, Gerson G. Cunha, Severino J. C. Neto

Abstract:

This paper aims to project the construction of a prototype azimuthal thruster, mounted with materials of low cost and easy access, testing in a controlled environment to measure their performance, characteristics and feasibility of future projects. The construction of the simulation of dynamic positioning software, responsible for simulating a vessel and reposition it when necessary. Validation tests were performed in the form of partial or complete system. These tests validate the system manually or automatically. The system provides an interface to the user and simulates the conditions unfavorable positioning of a vessel, accurately calculates the azimuth angle, the direction of rotation of the helix and the time that this should be turned on so that the vessel back to position original. A serial communication connects the Simulation Dynamic Positioning System with Embedded System causing the usergenerated data to simulate the DP system arrives in the form of control signals to the motors of the propellant. This article addresses issues in the marine industry employees.

Keywords: Azimuthal Thruster, Dynamic Positioning, Embedded System.

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4935 Experimental Study of Dynamic Characteristics of the Electromagnet Actuators with Linear Movement

Authors: Vultchan T. Gueorgiev, Racho M. Ivanov, Ivan S. Yatchev, Krastyo L. Hinov

Abstract:

An approach for experimental measurement of the dynamic characteristics of linear electromagnet actuators is presented. It uses accelerometer sensor to register the armature acceleration. The velocity and displacement of the moving parts can be obtained by integration of the acceleration results. The armature movement of permanent magnet linear actuator is acquired using this technique. The results are analyzed and the performance of the supposed approach is compared with the most commonly used experimental setup where the displacement of the armature vs. time is measured instead of its acceleration.

Keywords: Dynamic characteristics, dynamic simulation, linearactuators.

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4934 Using the Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict the Assembly Yield

Authors: C. Chahin, M. C. Hsu, Y. H. Lin, C. Y. Huang

Abstract:

Electronics Products that achieve high levels of integrated communications, computing and entertainment, multimedia features in small, stylish and robust new form factors are winning in the market place. Due to the high costs that an industry may undergo and how a high yield is directly proportional to high profits, IC (Integrated Circuit) manufacturers struggle to maximize yield, but today-s customers demand miniaturization, low costs, high performance and excellent reliability making the yield maximization a never ending research of an enhanced assembly process. With factors such as minimum tolerances, tighter parameter variations a systematic approach is needed in order to predict the assembly process. In order to evaluate the quality of upcoming circuits, yield models are used which not only predict manufacturing costs but also provide vital information in order to ease the process of correction when the yields fall below expectations. For an IC manufacturer to obtain higher assembly yields all factors such as boards, placement, components, the material from which the components are made of and processes must be taken into consideration. Effective placement yield depends heavily on machine accuracy and the vision of the system which needs the ability to recognize the features on the board and component to place the device accurately on the pads and bumps of the PCB. There are currently two methods for accurate positioning, using the edge of the package and using solder ball locations also called footprints. The only assumption that a yield model makes is that all boards and devices are completely functional. This paper will focus on the Monte Carlo method which consists in a class of computational algorithms (information processed algorithms) which depends on repeated random samplings in order to compute the results. This method utilized in order to recreate the simulation of placement and assembly processes within a production line.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, placement yield, PCBcharacterization, electronics assembly

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4933 Economic Evaluation Offshore Wind Project under Uncertainly and Risk Circumstances

Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

Abstract:

Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: Wind energy project; uncertain resources; risks; Monte Carlo simulation.

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4932 Validation of Reverse Engineered Web Application Models

Authors: Carlo Bellettini, Alessandro Marchetto, Andrea Trentini

Abstract:

Web applications have become complex and crucial for many firms, especially when combined with areas such as CRM (Customer Relationship Management) and BPR (Business Process Reengineering). The scientific community has focused attention to Web application design, development, analysis, testing, by studying and proposing methodologies and tools. Static and dynamic techniques may be used to analyze existing Web applications. The use of traditional static source code analysis may be very difficult, for the presence of dynamically generated code, and for the multi-language nature of the Web. Dynamic analysis may be useful, but it has an intrinsic limitation, the low number of program executions used to extract information. Our reverse engineering analysis, used into our WAAT (Web Applications Analysis and Testing) project, applies mutational techniques in order to exploit server side execution engines to accomplish part of the dynamic analysis. This paper studies the effects of mutation source code analysis applied to Web software to build application models. Mutation-based generated models may contain more information then necessary, so we need a pruning mechanism.

Keywords: Validation, Dynamic Analysis, MutationAnalysis, Reverse Engineering, Web Applications

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4931 Spectrum Analysis with Monte Cralo Simulation, BEAMnrc, for Low Energy X-RAY

Authors: Z. Salehi Dehyagani, A. L. Yusoff

Abstract:

BEAMnrc was used to calculate the spectrum and HVL for X-ray Beam during low energy X-ray radiation using tube model: SRO 33/100 /ROT 350 Philips. The results of BEAMnrc simulation and measurements were compared to the IPEM report number 78 and SpekCalc software. Three energies 127, 103 and 84 Kv were used. In these simulation a tungsten anode with 1.2 mm for Be window were used as source. HVLs were calculated from BEAMnrc spectrum with air Kerma method for four different filters. For BEAMnrc one billion particles were used as original particles for all simulations. The results show that for 127 kV, there was maximum 5.2 % difference between BEAMnrc and Measurements and minimum was 0.7% .the maximum 9.1% difference between BEAMnrc and IPEM and minimum was 2.3% .The maximum difference was 3.2% between BEAMnrc and SpekCal and minimum was 2.8%. The result show BEAMnrc was able to satisfactory predict the quantities of Low energy Beam as well as high energy X-ray radiation.

Keywords: BEAMnr , Monte Carlo , HVL

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4930 The Contribution of Edgeworth, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Data

Authors: Edlira Donefski, Tina Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi

Abstract:

Edgeworth Approximation, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Simulations have a considerable impact on the achieving certain results related to different problems taken into study. In our paper, we have treated a financial case related to the effect that have the components of a Cash-Flow of one of the most successful businesses in the world, as the financial activity, operational activity and investing activity to the cash and cash equivalents at the end of the three-months period. To have a better view of this case we have created a Vector Autoregression model, and after that we have generated the impulse responses in the terms of Asymptotic Analysis (Edgeworth Approximation), Monte Carlo Simulations and Residual Bootstrap based on the standard errors of every series created. The generated results consisted of the common tendencies for the three methods applied, that consequently verified the advantage of the three methods in the optimization of the model that contains many variants.

Keywords: Autoregression, Bootstrap, Edgeworth Expansion, Monte Carlo Method.

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4929 Reliability Analysis of Underground Pipelines Using Subset Simulation

Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li

Abstract:

An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.

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4928 Reliability Indices Evaluation of SEIG Rotor Core Magnetization with Minimum Capacitive Excitation for WECs

Authors: Lokesh Varshney, R. K. Saket

Abstract:

This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor operated as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp, 12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads. Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable induction machines operated as a SEIG for unregulated renewable energy application in remote area or where grid is not available. Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function, survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically in this paper.

Keywords: Residual magnetism, magnetization curve, induction motor, self excited induction generator, probability distribution, Monte Carlo simulation.

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4927 Modeling and Simulation of Motion of an Underwater Robot Glider for Shallow-water Ocean Applications

Authors: Chen Wang, Amir Anvar

Abstract:

This paper describes the modeling and simulation of an underwater robot glider used in the shallow-water environment. We followed the Equations of motion derived by [2] and simplified dynamic Equations of motion of an underwater glider according to our underwater glider. A simulation code is built and operated in the MATLAB Simulink environment so that we can make improvements to our testing glider design. It may be also used to validate a robot glider design.

Keywords: AUV, underwater glider, robot, modeling, simulation.

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4926 Dynamic Admission Control for Quality of Service in IP Networks

Authors: J. Kasigwa, V. Baryamureeba, D. Williams

Abstract:

The goal of admission control is to support the Quality of Service demands of real-time applications via resource reservation in IP networks. In this paper we introduce a novel Dynamic Admission Control (DAC) mechanism for IP networks. The DAC dynamically allocates network resources using the previous network pattern for each path and uses the dynamic admission algorithm to improve bandwidth utilization using bandwidth brokers. We evaluate the performance of the proposed mechanism through trace-driven simulation experiments in view point of blocking probability, throughput and normalized utilization.

Keywords: Bandwidth broker, dynamic admission control(DAC), IP networks, quality of service, real-time flows.

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4925 Application Reliability Method for Concrete Dams

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

Abstract:

Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

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4924 The Investigations of Water-ethanol Mixture by Monte Carlo Method

Authors: Atamas N. A., Atamas A. A.

Abstract:

Energetic and structural results for ethanol-water mixtures as a function of the mole fraction were calculated using Monte Carlo methodology. Energy partitioning results obtained for equimolar water-ethanol mixture and ether organic liquids are compared. It has been shown that at xet=0.22 the RDFs for waterethanol and ethanol-ethanol interactions indicated strong hydrophobic interactions between ethanol molecules and the local structure of solution is less structured at this concentration as at ether ones. Results obtained for ethanol-water mixture as a function of concentration are in good agreement with the experimental data.

Keywords: Ethanol, molecular liquids, Monte Carlo, water, thermodynamics.

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4923 Automated Method Time Measurement System for Redesigning Dynamic Facility Layout

Authors: Salam Alzubaidi, G. Fantoni, F. Failli, M. Frosolini

Abstract:

The dynamic facility layout problem is a really critical issue in the competitive industrial market; thus, solving this problem requires robust design and effective simulation systems. The sustainable simulation requires inputting reliable and accurate data into the system. So this paper describes an automated system integrated into the real environment to measure the duration of the material handling operations, collect the data in real-time, and determine the variances between the actual and estimated time schedule of the operations in order to update the simulation software and redesign the facility layout periodically. The automated method- time measurement system collects the real data through using Radio Frequency-Identification (RFID) and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies. Hence, attaching RFID- antenna reader and RFID tags enables the system to identify the location of the objects and gathering the time data. The real duration gathered will be manipulated by calculating the moving average duration of the material handling operations, choosing the shortest material handling path, and then updating the simulation software to redesign the facility layout accommodating with the shortest/real operation schedule. The periodic simulation in real-time is more sustainable and reliable than the simulation system relying on an analysis of historical data. The case study of this methodology is in cooperation with a workshop team for producing mechanical parts. Although there are some technical limitations, this methodology is promising, and it can be significantly useful in the redesigning of the manufacturing layout.

Keywords: Dynamic facility layout problem, internet of things, method time measurement, radio frequency identification, simulation.

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4922 Effect of Birks Constant and Defocusing Parameter on Triple-to-Double Coincidence Ratio Parameter in Monte Carlo Simulation-GEANT4

Authors: F. Abubaker, F. Tortorici, M. Capogni, C. Sutera, V. Bellini

Abstract:

This project concerns with the detection efficiency of the portable Triple-to-Double Coincidence Ratio (TDCR) at the National Institute of Metrology of Ionizing Radiation (INMRI-ENEA) which allows direct activity measurement and radionuclide standardization for pure-beta emitter or pure electron capture radionuclides. The dependency of the simulated detection efficiency of the TDCR, by using Monte Carlo simulation Geant4 code, on the Birks factor (kB) and defocusing parameter has been examined especially for low energy beta-emitter radionuclides such as 3H and 14C, for which this dependency is relevant. The results achieved in this analysis can be used for selecting the best kB factor and the defocusing parameter for computing theoretical TDCR parameter value. The theoretical results were compared with the available ones, measured by the ENEA TDCR portable detector, for some pure-beta emitter radionuclides. This analysis allowed to improve the knowledge of the characteristics of the ENEA TDCR detector that can be used as a traveling instrument for in-situ measurements with particular benefits in many applications in the field of nuclear medicine and in the nuclear energy industry.

Keywords: Birks constant, defocusing parameter, GEANT4 code, TDCR parameter.

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4921 Discrete Wavelet Transform Decomposition Level Determination Exploiting Sparseness Measurement

Authors: Lei Lei, Chao Wang, Xin Liu

Abstract:

Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been widely adopted in biomedical signal processing for denoising, compression and so on. Choosing a suitable decomposition level (DL) in DWT is of paramount importance to its performance. In this paper, we propose to exploit sparseness of the transformed signals to determine the appropriate DL. Simulation results have shown that the sparseness of transformed signals after DWT increases with the increasing DLs. Additional Monte-Carlo simulation results have verified the effectiveness of sparseness measure in determining the DL.

Keywords: Sparseness, DWT, decomposition level, ECG.

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