Search results for: John Hughes
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 181

Search results for: John Hughes

181 Using Simulation Modeling Approach to Predict USMLE Steps 1 and 2 Performances

Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

Abstract:

The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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180 Extraction and Analysis of Hypericum perforatum L. from Turkey

Authors: E. Moroydor Derun, Z. Eslek, S. Piskin

Abstract:

Hypericum perforatum L. is a member of the Hypericaceae (Guttiferae) family and commonly known as St. John’s wort. There is a growing interest in this medicinal plant because of the constituents of this genus. A number of species have been shown to possess various biological activities such as antiviral, wound healing, analgesic, hepatoprotective, antimicrobial and antioxidant activities and also have therapeutic effects on burns, bruises, swelling, anxiety and mild to moderate depression. In this study, the aerial parts of Hypericum perforatum L. are extracted and the main and effective constituents are determined. The analysis of the extracts was performed by GC-MS and LC-MS. As a next step, it is aimed to investigate the usage of the main constituents of the medicinal plant.

Keywords: Hypericaceae, Hypericum perforatum L., GC-MS, Guttiferae, LC-MS, Medicinal plant, St. John’s wort.

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179 Some Factors Affecting the Compressive Behaviour of Structural Masonry at Small Scales

Authors: A. Mohammed, T. G. Hughes

Abstract:

This paper presents part of a research into the small scale modelling of masonry. Small scale testing of masonry has been carried out by many authors, but few have attempted a systematic determination of the parameters that affect masonry at a small scale. The effect of increasing mortar strength and different sand gradings under compression were investigated. The results show masonry strength at small scale is influenced by increasing mortar strength and different sand gradings.

Keywords: Compression, masonry, models, mortar, sand gradings

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178 Creating a Virtual Perception for Upper Limb Rehabilitation

Authors: Nina Robson, Kenneth John Faller II, Vishalkumar Ahir, Arthur Ricardo Deps Miguel Ferreira, John Buchanan, Amarnath Banerjee

Abstract:

This paper describes the development of a virtual-reality system ARWED, which will be used in physical rehabilitation of patients with reduced upper extremity mobility to increase limb Active Range of Motion (AROM). The ARWED system performs a symmetric reflection and real-time mapping of the patient’s healthy limb on to their most affected limb, tapping into the mirror neuron system and facilitating the initial learning phase. Using the ARWED, future experiments will test the extension of the action-observation priming effect linked to the mirror-neuron system on healthy subjects and then stroke patients.

Keywords: Physical rehabilitation, mirror neuron, virtual reality, stroke therapy.

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177 Factor Resistance Comparison of a Long Shaft in 955 and 1055 John Deere Grain Combine

Authors: M. Azadbakht, M. E. Shayan, H. Jafari, E. Ghajarjazi, A. Kiapei

Abstract:

Transmission shafts are affected by various forces, for example, during acceleration or sudden breaks, bending during transportation, vertical forces that lead to cuts. One of the main failures in combines is breaking shaft which repairmen refer it. Structural resistance of canal against torque is very important in the beginning of the movement. For analyzing stress, a typical sample from a type of combine was selected, called JD955 combine. Long shaft in this combine was analyzed with finite element method by Ansys13 generic package under static load. Conducted analysis showed that there is a maximum stress in contact surfaces of indentations and also in place of changing diameter. Safety factor value is low in parts of the shaft and this increases the probability of failure at these points. To improve the conditions with the least cost and an approach of product improvement, using alternative alloy is important.

Keywords: John Deere, Ansys, Shaft, Stress, Grain Combine harvester, Finite element, Failure.

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176 Object Motion Tracking Based On Color Detection for Android Devices

Authors: Zacharenia I. Garofalaki, John T. Amorginos, John N. Ellinas

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of a robot car that can track the motion of an object by detecting its color through an Android device. The employed computer vision algorithm uses the OpenCV library, which is embedded into an Android application of a smartphone, for manipulating the captured image of the object. The captured image of the object is subjected to color conversion and is transformed to a binary image for further processing after color filtering. The desired object is clearly determined after removing pixel noise by applying image morphology operations and contour definition. Finally, the area and the center of the object are determined so that object’s motion to be tracked. The smartphone application has been placed on a robot car and transmits by Bluetooth to an Arduino assembly the motion directives so that to follow objects of a specified color. The experimental evaluation of the proposed algorithm shows reliable color detection and smooth tracking characteristics.

Keywords: Android, Arduino Uno, Image processing, Object motion detection, OpenCV library.

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175 Application of Western and Islamic Philosophy to Business Ethics

Authors: Elmamy Ahmedsalem

Abstract:

The world has witnessed the collapse of many corporate giants as a result of unethical behavior in recent decades. This has induced a series of questions by the global community on why such occurrences could happen, even with corporate governance in place. This paper attempts to propose a philosophical approach from an Islamic perspective to be consolidated with current corporate governance in order to confront contemporary dilemmas. In this paper, ethical theories are presented as a discussion followed by their applications to modern cases of financial collapses. Virtue ethics by Aristotle, justice and fairness by John Rawls, deontology by Immanuel Kant, and utilitarianism by John Stuart Mill, are the four theories which can then be contrasted with the paradigm of Muslim scholars. Despite the differences between the fundamental principles of Islamic and Western worldviews, their ethical theories are aimed at making right decisions and solving ethical dilemmas based on what is good for society. Therefore, Islamic principles should be synthesized with Western philosophy to form a more coherent framework. The integration of Islamic and western ethical theories into business is important for sound corporate governance.

Keywords: Business ethics, Islamic philosophy, western philosophy, Western and Islamic Worldview of Ethics.

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174 Evaluation of Biomass Introduction Methods in Coal Co-Gasification

Authors: Ruwaida Abdul Rasid, Kevin J. Hughes, Peter J. Heggs, Mohamed Pourkashanian

Abstract:

Heightened concerns over the amount of carbon emitted from coal-related processes are generating shifts to the application of biomass. In co-gasification, where coal is gasified along with biomass, the biomass may be fed together with coal (cofeeding) or an independent biomass gasifier needs to be integrated with the coal gasifier. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the biomass introduction methods in coal co-gasification. This includes the evaluation of biomass concentration input (B0 to B100) and its gasification performance. A process model is developed and simulated in Aspen HYSYS, where both coal and biomass are modelled according to its ultimate analysis. It was found that the syngas produced increased with increasing biomass content for both co-feeding and independent schemes. However, the heating values and heat duties decreases with biomass concentration as more CO2 are produced from complete combustion.

Keywords: Aspen HYSYS, biomass, coal, co-gasification modelling and simulation.

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173 En-Face Optical Coherence Tomography and Fluorescence in Evaluation of Orthodontic Interfaces

Authors: R. O. Rominu, C. Sinescu, D.M. Pop, M. Hughes, A. Bradu, M. Rominu, A. Gh. Podoleanu

Abstract:

Bonding has become a routine procedure in several dental specialties – from prosthodontics to conservative dentistry and even orthodontics. In many of these fields it is important to be able to investigate the bonded interfaces to assess their quality. All currently employed investigative methods are invasive, meaning that samples are destroyed in the testing procedure and cannot be used again. We have investigated the interface between human enamel and bonded ceramic brackets non-invasively, introducing a combination of new investigative methods – optical coherence tomography (OCT), fluorescence OCT and confocal microscopy (CM). Brackets were conventionally bonded on conditioned buccal surfaces of teeth. The bonding was assessed using these methods. Three dimensional reconstructions of the detected material defects were developed using manual and semi-automatic segmentation. The results clearly prove that OCT, fluorescence OCT and CM are useful in orthodontic bonding investigations.

Keywords: Optical coherence tomography, Confocal Microscopy, Orthodontic Bonding.

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172 Performance of an Improved Fluidized System for Processing Green Tea

Authors: Nickson Kipng’etich Lang’at, Thomas Thoruwa, John Abraham, John Wanyoko

Abstract:

Green tea is made from the top two leaves and buds of a shrub, Camellia sinensis, of the family Theaceae and the order Theales. The green tea leaves are picked and immediately sent to be dried or steamed to prevent fermentation. Fluid bed drying technique is a common drying method used in drying green tea because of its ease in design and construction and fluidization of fine tea particles. Major problems in this method are significant loss of chemical content of the leaf and green appearance of tea, retention of high moisture content in the leaves and bed channeling and defluidization. The energy associated with the drying technology has been shown to be a vital factor in determining the quality of green tea. As part of the implementation, prototype dryer was built that facilitated sequence of operations involving steaming, cooling, pre-drying and final drying. The major findings of the project were in terms of quality characteristics of tea leaves and energy consumption during processing. The optimal design achieved a moisture content of 4.2 ± 0.84%. With the optimum drying temperature of 100 ºC, the specific energy consumption was 1697.8 kj.Kg-1 and evaporation rate of 4.272 x 10-4 Kg.m-2.s-1. The energy consumption in a fluidized system can be further reduced by focusing on energy saving designs.

Keywords: Evaporation rate, fluid bed dryer, maceration, specific energy consumption.

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171 Computational Study of Improving the Efficiency of Photovoltaic Panels in the UAE

Authors: Ben Richard Hughes, Ng Ping Sze Cherisa, Osman Beg

Abstract:

Various solar energy technologies exist and they have different application techniques in the generation of electrical power. The widespread use of photovoltaic (PV) modules in such technologies has been limited by relatively high costs and low efficiencies. The efficiency of PV panels decreases as the operating temperatures increase. This is due to the affect of solar intensity and ambient temperature. In this work, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was used to model the heat transfer from a standard PV panel and thus determine the rate of dissipation of heat. To accurately model the specific climatic conditions of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a case study of a new build green building in Dubai was used. A finned heat pipe arrangement is proposed and analyzed to determine the improved heat dissipation and thus improved performance efficiency of the PV panel. A prototype of the arrangement is built for experimental testing to validate the CFD modeling and proof of concept.

Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, Improving Efficiency, Photovoltaic (PV) Panels, Heat-pipe

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170 Examining Organizational Improvisation: The Role of Strategic Reasoning and Managerial Factors

Authors: Darwina Arshad, Paul Hughes

Abstract:

Recent environmental turbulence including financial crisis, intensified competitive forces, rapid technological change and high market turbulence have dramatically changed the current business climate. The managers firms have to plan and decide what the best approaches that best fit their firms in order to pursue superior performance. This research aims to examine the influence of strategic reasoning and top level managers- individual characteristics on the effectiveness of organizational improvisation and firm performance. Given the lack of studies on these relationships in the previous literature, there is significant contribution to the body of knowledge as well as for managerial practices. 128 responses from top management of technology-based companies in Malaysia were used as a sample. Three hypotheses were examined and the findings confirm that (a) there is no relationship between intuitive reasoning and organizational improvisation but there is a link between rational reasoning and organizational improvisation, (b) top level managers- individual characteristics as a whole affect organizational improvisation; and (c) organizational improvisation positively affects firm performance. The theoretical and managerial implications were discussed in the conclusions.

Keywords: Organizational improvisation, strategic reasoning, firm performance.

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169 Precise Measurement of Displacement using Pixels

Authors: Razif Mahadi, John Billingsley

Abstract:

Manufacturing processes demand tight dimensional tolerances. The paper concerns a transducer for precise measurement of displacement, based on a camera containing a linescan chip. When tests were conducted using a track of black and white stripes with a 2mm pitch, errors in measuring on individual cycle amounted to 1.75%, suggesting that a precision of 35 microns is achievable.

Keywords: Linescan, microcontroller, pixels.

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168 A Study on the Relation among Primary Care Professionals Serving the Disadvantaged Community, Socioeconomic Status, and Adverse Health Outcome

Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, Juanita Buford, Colette Davis, Raisha Allen, John Hughes, Jr., James Tyus, Dexter Samuels

Abstract:

During the post-Civil War era, the city of Nashville, Tennessee, had the highest mortality rate in the United States. The elevated death and disease rates among former slaves were attributable to lack of quality healthcare. To address the paucity of healthcare services, Meharry Medical College, an institution with the mission of educating minority professionals and serving the underserved population, was established in 1876. Purpose: The social ecological framework and partial least squares (PLS) path modeling were used to quantify the impact of socioeconomic status and adverse health outcome on primary care professionals serving the disadvantaged community. Thus, the study results could demonstrate the accomplishment of the College’s mission of training primary care professionals to serve in underserved areas. Methods: Various statistical methods were used to analyze alumni data from 1975 – 2013. K-means cluster analysis was utilized to identify individual medical and dental graduates in the cluster groups of the practice communities (Disadvantaged or Non-disadvantaged Communities). Discriminant analysis was implemented to verify the classification accuracy of cluster analysis. The independent t-test was performed to detect the significant mean differences of respective clustering and criterion variables. Chi-square test was used to test if the proportions of primary care and non-primary care specialists are consistent with those of medical and dental graduates practicing in the designated community clusters. Finally, the PLS path model was constructed to explore the construct validity of analytic model by providing the magnitude effects of socioeconomic status and adverse health outcome on primary care professionals serving the disadvantaged community. Results: Approximately 83% (3,192/3,864) of Meharry Medical College’s medical and dental graduates from 1975 to 2013 were practicing in disadvantaged communities. Independent t-test confirmed the content validity of the cluster analysis model. Also, the PLS path modeling demonstrated that alumni served as primary care professionals in communities with significantly lower socioeconomic status and higher adverse health outcome (p < .001). The PLS path modeling exhibited the meaningful interrelation between primary care professionals practicing communities and surrounding environments (socioeconomic statues and adverse health outcome), which yielded model reliability, validity, and applicability. Conclusion: This study applied social ecological theory and analytic modeling approaches to assess the attainment of Meharry Medical College’s mission of training primary care professionals to serve in underserved areas, particularly in communities with low socioeconomic status and high rates of adverse health outcomes. In summary, the majority of medical and dental graduates from Meharry Medical College provided primary care services to disadvantaged communities with low socioeconomic status and high adverse health outcome, which demonstrated that Meharry Medical College has fulfilled its mission. The high reliability, validity, and applicability of this model imply that it could be replicated for comparable universities and colleges elsewhere.

Keywords: Disadvantaged Community, K-means Cluster Analysis, PLS Path Modeling, Primary care.

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167 Power Generation Potential of Dynamic Architecture

Authors: Ben Richard Hughes, Hassam Nasarullah Chaudhry

Abstract:

The main aim of this work is to establish the capabilities of new green buildings to ascertain off-grid electricity generation based on the integration of wind turbines in the conceptual model of a rotating tower [2] in Dubai. An in depth performance analysis of the WinWind 3.0MW [3] wind turbine is performed. Data based on the Dubai Meteorological Services is collected and analyzed in conjunction with the performance analysis of this wind turbine. The mathematical model is compared with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) results based on a conceptual rotating tower design model. The comparison results are further validated and verified for accuracy by conducting experiments on a scaled prototype of the tower design. The study concluded that integrating wind turbines inside a rotating tower can generate enough electricity to meet the required power consumption of the building, which equates to a wind farm containing 9 horizontal axis wind turbines located at an approximate area of 3,237,485 m2 [14].

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, green building, horizontal axis wind turbine, rotating tower, velocity gradient.

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166 Churn Prediction: Does Technology Matter?

Authors: John Hadden, Ashutosh Tiwari, Rajkumar Roy, Dymitr Ruta

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to identify the most suitable model for churn prediction based on three different techniques. The paper identifies the variables that affect churn in reverence of customer complaints data and provides a comparative analysis of neural networks, regression trees and regression in their capabilities of predicting customer churn.

Keywords: Churn, Decision Trees, Neural Networks, Regression.

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165 Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multisets And Its Application in Medical Diagnosis

Authors: Shinoj T. K, Sunil Jacob John

Abstract:

In this paper a new concept named Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multiset is introduced. The basic operations on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multisets such as union, intersection, addition, multiplication etc. are discussed. An application of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multiset in Medical diagnosis problem using a distance function is discussed in detail.

Keywords: Intuitionistic Fuzzy set, Multiset, Intuitionistic Fuzzy Multiset

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164 Sensor Optimisation via H∞ Applied to a MAGLEV Suspension System

Authors: Konstantinos Michail, Argyrios Zolotas, Roger Goodall, John Pearson

Abstract:

In this paper a systematic method via H∞ control design is proposed to select a sensor set that satisfies a number of input criteria for a MAGLEV suspension system. The proposed method recovers a number of optimised controllers for each possible sensor set that satisfies the performance and constraint criteria using evolutionary algorithms.

Keywords: H-infinity, Sensor optimisation, Genetic algorithms, MAGLEV vehicles

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163 An Improved Preprocessing for Biosonar Target Classification

Authors: Turgay Temel, John Hallam

Abstract:

An improved processing description to be employed in biosonar signal processing in a cochlea model is proposed and examined. It is compared to conventional models using a modified discrimination analysis and both are tested. Their performances are evaluated with echo data captured from natural targets (trees).Results indicate that the phase characteristics of low-pass filters employed in the echo processing have a significant effect on class separability for this data.

Keywords: Cochlea model, discriminant analysis, neurospikecoding, classification.

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162 Simulation of Online Communities Using MAS Social and Spatial Organisations

Authors: Maya Rupert, Salima Hassas, Carlos Li, John Sherwood

Abstract:

Online Communities are an example of sociallyaware, self-organising, complex adaptive computing systems. The multi-agent systems (MAS) paradigm coordinated by self-organisation mechanisms has been used as an effective way for the simulation and modeling of such systems. In this paper, we propose a model for simulating an online health community using a situated multi-agent system approach, governed by the co-evolution of the social and spatial organisations of the agents.

Keywords: multi-agent systems, organizations, online communities.

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161 Modeling of Co-Cu Elution From Clinoptilolite using Neural Network

Authors: John Kabuba, Antoine Mulaba-Bafubiandi

Abstract:

The elution process for the removal of Co and Cu from clinoptilolite as an ion-exchanger was investigated using three parameters: bed volume, pH and contact time. The present paper study has shown quantitatively that acid concentration has a significant effect on the elution process. The favorable eluant concentration was found to be 2 M HCl and 2 M H2SO4, respectively. The multi-component equilibrium relationship in the process can be very complex, and perhaps ill-defined. In such circumstances, it is preferable to use a non-parametric technique such as Neural Network to represent such an equilibrium relationship.

Keywords: Clinoptilolite, elution, modeling, neural network.

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160 Signalling Cost Analysis of PDE-NEMO

Authors: Kamarularifin Abd Jalil, John Dunlop

Abstract:

A Personal Distributed Environment (PDE) is an example of an IP-based system architecture designed for future mobile communications. In a single PDE, there exist several Subnetworks hosting devices located across the infrastructure, which will inter-work with one another through the coordination of a Device Management Entity (DME). Some of these Sub-networks are fixed and some are mobile. In order to support Mobile Sub-networks mobility in the PDE, the PDE-NEMO protocol was proposed. This paper discussed the signalling cost analysis of PDE-NEMO by use of a detailed simulation model. The paper started with the introduction of the protocol, followed by the experiments and results and then followed by discussions.

Keywords: Mobile Network, PDE-NEMO, Signallling Cost.

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159 Pathology of Explanted Transvaginal Meshes

Authors: Vladimir V. Iakovlev, Erin T. Carey, John Steege

Abstract:

The use of polypropylene mesh devices for Pelvic Organ Prolapse (POP) spread rapidly during the last decade, yet our knowledge of the mesh-tissue interaction is far from complete. We aimed to perform a thorough pathological examination of explanted POP meshes and describe findings that may explain mechanisms of complications resulting in product excision. We report a spectrum of important findings, including nerve ingrowth, mesh deformation, involvement of detrusor muscle with neural ganglia, and polypropylene degradation. Analysis of these findings may improve and guide future treatment strategies.

Keywords: Transvaginal, mesh, nerves, polypropylene degradation.

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158 The Importance of Intellectual Property for Universities of Technology in South Africa: Challenges Faced and Proposed Way Forward

Authors: Martha E. Ikome, John M. Ikome

Abstract:

Intellectual property should be a day-to-day business decision due to its value, but increasingly, a number of institution are still not aware of the importance. Intellectual Property (IP) and its value are often not adequately appreciated. In the increasingly knowledge-driven economy, IP is a key consideration in day-to-day business decisions because new ideas and products appear almost daily in the market, which results in continuous innovation and research. Therefore, this paper will focus on the importance of IP for universities of technology and also further demonstrates how IP can become an economic tool and the challenges faced by these universities in implementing an IP system.

Keywords: Intellectual property, institutions, challenges, protection.

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157 Evaluation of Algorithms for Sequential Decision in Biosonar Target Classification

Authors: Turgay Temel, John Hallam

Abstract:

A sequential decision problem, based on the task ofidentifying the species of trees given acoustic echo data collectedfrom them, is considered with well-known stochastic classifiers,including single and mixture Gaussian models. Echoes are processedwith a preprocessing stage based on a model of mammalian cochlearfiltering, using a new discrete low-pass filter characteristic. Stoppingtime performance of the sequential decision process is evaluated andcompared. It is observed that the new low pass filter processingresults in faster sequential decisions.

Keywords: Classification, neuro-spike coding, parametricmodel, Gaussian mixture with EM algorithm, sequential decision.

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156 An Evaluation of Algorithms for Single-Echo Biosonar Target Classification

Authors: Turgay Temel, John Hallam

Abstract:

A recent neurospiking coding scheme for feature extraction from biosonar echoes of various plants is examined with avariety of stochastic classifiers. Feature vectors derived are employedin well-known stochastic classifiers, including nearest-neighborhood,single Gaussian and a Gaussian mixture with EM optimization.Classifiers' performances are evaluated by using cross-validation and bootstrapping techniques. It is shown that the various classifers perform equivalently and that the modified preprocessing configuration yields considerably improved results.

Keywords: Classification, neuro-spike coding, non-parametricmodel, parametric model, Gaussian mixture, EM algorithm.

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155 Indoor Mapping by using Smartphone Device

Authors: Shuib Rambat, Ruzsyahriman Jenal, John Elgy

Abstract:

This paper presented the potential of smart phone to provide support on mapping the indoor asset. The advantage of using the smart phone to generate the indoor map is that it has the ability to capture, store and reproduces still or video images; indeed most of us do have this powerful gadget. The captured images usually used by maintenance team to save a record for future reference. Here, these images are used to generate 3D models of an object precisely and accurately for efficient and effective solution in data gathering. Thus, it could be a resource for an informative database in asset management.

Keywords: 3D modeling, Asset Management, Object Extraction, Smart Device

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154 A Stochastic Approach of Mitochondrial Dynamics

Authors: Athanasios T. Alexiou, Maria M. Psiha, John A. Rekkas, Panayiotis M. Vlamos

Abstract:

Mitochondria are dynamic organelles, capable to interact with each other. While the number of mitochondria in a cell varies, their quality and functionality depends on the operation of fusion, fission, motility and mitophagy. Nowadays, several researches declare as an important factor in neurogenerative diseases the disruptions in the regulation of mitochondrial dynamics. In this paper a stochastic model in BioAmbients calculus is presented, concerning mitochondrial fusion and its distribution in the renewal of mitochondrial population in a cell. This model describes the successive and dependent stages of protein synthesis, protein-s activation and merging of two independent mitochondria.

Keywords: Mitochondrial Dynamics, P-Calculus, StochasticModeling.

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153 Trend Analysis of Annual Total Precipitation Data in Konya

Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: Trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya, Turkey.

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152 Approximations to the Distribution of the Sample Correlation Coefficient

Authors: John N. Haddad, Serge B. Provost

Abstract:

Given a bivariate normal sample of correlated variables, (Xi, Yi), i = 1, . . . , n, an alternative estimator of Pearson’s correlation coefficient is obtained in terms of the ranges, |Xi − Yi|. An approximate confidence interval for ρX,Y is then derived, and a simulation study reveals that the resulting coverage probabilities are in close agreement with the set confidence levels. As well, a new approximant is provided for the density function of R, the sample correlation coefficient. A mixture involving the proposed approximate density of R, denoted by hR(r), and a density function determined from a known approximation due to R. A. Fisher is shown to accurately approximate the distribution of R. Finally, nearly exact density approximants are obtained on adjusting hR(r) by a 7th degree polynomial.

Keywords: Sample correlation coefficient, density approximation, confidence intervals.

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