Application Reliability Method for Concrete Dams

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

Abstract:

Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1127878

References:

[1] Li K, Cheung R.W.M., Discussion search algorithm for minimum reliability index of earth slopes by Hassan Am. Wolff TF, Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, v, 127(02), (2001), 197-198.
[2] Allen CE., A System Reliability Approach to the Life Time Optimization of Inspection and Repair of Highway Bridges, PhD Thesis, Colorado University, Department of Civil and architectural environmental engineering, 1997.
[3] Reeve D, Risk and Reliability: Coastal and Hydraulic Engineering, edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2009.
[4] Benjamin JR, Cornell AC, Probability Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers, McGraw Hill Book Company, 1971.
[5] Stewart M, Melchers R.E., Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Engineering Systems, Chapman & Hall, 1997.
[6] Bomel L., Probabilistic methods: Uses and abuses in structural integrity, contract research report, 398/2001, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, United Kingdom, (2001), 32-54.
[7] Hse, Reducing Risks Protecting People, Health and Safety Executive, HMSO, London, UK, 2001.
[8] Eddleston M, Rose C, Gallagher E., Hope I. and Sugden P, Quantitative risk assessment applied to sludge lagoon embankments, maintaining the safety of our Dams and reservoirs, (2014), 257-269.
[9] Broniatowski M., Hermannkom G., Support de cours, Laboratoire de Statistique Théorique et Appliquée, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 2014.
[10] Hasofer A., Lind N., An exact and second-moment code format, journal Engineering Mechanical, ASCE, 100 (1), (1974), 111-121.
[11] Breitung K., Asymptotic Approximations for Multinormal Integrals, Journal of Engineering Mechanics,10. 1061/ASCE0733-9399, 110(3), (1984), 357-366.
[12] Hammersley J. M., Hands comb D. C, Monte-Carlo Methods. London: Methuen & Co Ltd, 1964.
[13] Rubinstein B., Y, Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method. New York: Wiley& Sons, 1981.
[14] Xavier Z., Modèle d’évaluation de la Fiabilité et de la Maintenabilité au stade de la Conception, PhD Thesis, University Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France, 2015.
[15] Melchers RE., Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Second Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Chischester, 1999.
[16] Broding W. C., Diederich F. W. and Parker P S., Structural Optimization and Design Based on a Reliability Design Criterion, Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, 1, (1964), 56–61.
[17] Beser M. R., a study on the reliability based safety and analysis of concrete gravity dams, the graduate school of natural and applied sciences of Middle East technical university, (2005), 30¬¬–40.
[18] Martin L, Pierre L, René T, CADAM user's manual, Department of Civil, Geological and Mining Engineering.École Polytechnique de Montréal, 2001.
[19] Peyras L, Arnaud P, Royet P, Carvajal C, Boissier D, Modélisation probabiliste de la cote de remplissage d’un barrage, Colloque CFBR-SHF: ‘Dimensionnement et fonctionnement des évacuateurs de crues’, 20-21 janvier, (2009), Lyon.