Search results for: random forest models

Authors: Laxuman Thakuri

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Community-based forest management is often glorified as one of the best forest management alternatives in the developing countries like Nepal. It is also believed that the transfer of forest management authorities to local communities is decisive to take efficient decisions, maximize the forest benefits and improve the people’s livelihood. The community forestry of Nepal also aims to maximize the forest benefits; share them among the user households and improve their livelihood. However, how the local communities fix the price of forest products and local pricing made by the forest user groups affects to equitable forest benefits-sharing among the user households and their livelihood improvement objectives, the answer is largely silent among the researchers and policy-makers alike. This study examines local pricing system of forest products in the lowland community forestry and its effects on equitable benefit-sharing and livelihood improvement objectives. The study discovered that forest user groups fixed the price of forest products based on three criteria: i) costs incur in harvesting, ii) office operation costs, and iii) livelihood improvement costs through community development and income generating activities. Since user households have heterogeneous socio-economic conditions, the forest user groups have been applied low pricing strategy even for high-value forest products that the access of socio-economically worse-off households can be increased. However, the results of forest products distribution showed that as a result of low pricing strategy the access of socio-economically better-off households has been increasing at higher rate than worse-off and an inequality situation has been created. Similarly, the low pricing strategy is also found defective to livelihood improvement objectives. The study suggests for revising the forest products pricing system in community forest management and reforming the community forestry policy as well.

Keywords: community forestry, forest products pricing, equitable benefit-sharing, livelihood improvement, Nepal

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Authors: Teng-Chiu Lin, Pei-Jen Lee Shaner, Shin-Yu Lin

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Both forest age and physical damages due to weather events such as tropical cyclones can influence forest characteristics and subsequently its capacity to sequester carbon. Detangling these influences is therefore a pressing issue under climate change. In this study, we compared the compositional and structural characteristics of three forests in Taiwan differing in age and severity of typhoon disturbances. We found that the two forests (one old-growth forest and one secondary forest) experiencing more severe typhoon disturbances had shorter stature, higher wood density, higher tree species diversity, and lower typhoon-induced tree mortality than the other secondary forest experiencing less severe typhoon disturbances. On the other hand, the old-growth forest had a larger amount of woody debris than the two secondary forests, suggesting a dominant role of forest age on woody debris accumulation. Of the three forests, only the two experiencing more severe typhoon disturbances formed new gaps following two 2015 typhoons, and between these two forests, the secondary forest gained more gaps than the old-growth forest. Consider that older forests generally have more gaps due to a higher background tree mortality, our findings suggest that the age effects on gap dynamics may be reversed by typhoon disturbances. This study demonstrated the effects of typhoons on forest characteristics, some of which could negate the age effects and rejuvenate older forests. If cyclone disturbances were to intensity under climate change, the capacity of older forests to sequester carbon may be reduced.

Keywords: typhoon, canpy gap, coarse woody debris, forest stature, forest age

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Authors: R. Remya

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We consider an M/M/1 multiple variant vacation queueing system and working vacation with waiting server. Here, comparing considering three models. First model, working vacation is taken after the server has exhaustively served all the customers in the system and waits random amount of time. After completing a working vacation, the server will wait for a random period of time before going on vacation. Then it goes to finite number of vacations same way. After end of J th vacation server waits in busy or served immediately. Second model, working vacation is taken after the server has exhaustively served all the customers in the system and waits random amount of time. Third model, working vacation is taken after the server has exhaustively served all the customers in the system and waits random amount of time. It is expected that service times and vacation lengths are exponentially distributed . We provide a steady-state solution and cost comparison for the stated models.

Keywords: vacation, working vacation, waiting server, steady state analysis, cost analysis

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Authors: Samuel Hyellamada Jerry

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This study focused on assessing conservation priorities within the Karlahi Forest Reserve of Fufore Local Government in Adamawa State. The main objective was to identify specific areas within the forest reserve that require immediate conservation attention. The research employed remote sensing and GIS techniques to achieve this goal. By overlaying the IDRIS Silva module results, a spatial distribution map was generated, highlighting the cumulative priority areas within and outside the forest. Among the total vegetated area of 26.38 km² in the Karlahi Forest Reserve, the analysis revealed that 16.16 km² were classified as high-priority conservation zones. Additionally, 4.59 km² and 5.63 km² were identified as medium and low-priority areas, respectively. In light of these findings, it is recommended that conservation efforts incorporate detailed land cover information and regular assessments of species diversity. Furthermore, strict adherence to national and state policies regarding forest reserves and parks is crucial for effective conservation management.

Keywords: priority, Karlahi, forest, reserve, IDRISI Silva, species diversity

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Authors: Alemayehu Muluneh, Saskia Keesstra, Leo Stroosnijder, Woldeamlak Bewket, Ashenafi Burka

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There are some scientific evidences and a belief by many that forests attract rain and deforestation contributes to a decline of rainfall. However, there is still a lack of concrete scientific evidence on the role of forests in rainfall amount. In this paper, we investigate the forest-rainfall relationships in the environmentally hot spot area of the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Specifically, we evaluate long term (1970-2009) rainfall variability and its relationship with historical forest cover and the relationship between existing forest cover and topographical variables and rainfall distribution. The study used 16 long term and 15 short term rainfall stations. The Mann-Kendall test, bi variate and multiple regression models were used. The results show forest and wood land cover continuously declined over the 40 years period (1970-2009), but annual rainfall in the rift valley floor increased by 6.42 mm/year. But, on the escarpment and highlands, annual rainfall decreased by 2.48 mm/year. The increase in annual rainfall in the rift valley floor is partly attributable to the increase in evaporation as a result of increasing temperatures from the 4 existing lakes in the rift valley floor. Though, annual rainfall is decreasing on the escarpment and highlands, there was no significant correlation between this rainfall decrease and forest and wood land decline and also rainfall variability in the region was not explained by forest cover. Hence, the decrease in annual rainfall on the escarpment and highlands is likely related to the global warming of the atmosphere and the surface waters of the Indian Ocean. Spatial variability of number of rainy days from systematically observed two-year’s rainfall data (2012-2013) was significantly (R2=-0.63) explained by forest cover (distance from forest). But, forest cover was not a significant variable (R2=-0.40) in explaining annual rainfall amount. Generally, past deforestation and existing forest cover showed very little effect on long term and short term rainfall distribution, but a significant effect on number of rainy days in the CRV of Ethiopia.

Keywords: elevation, forest cover, rainfall, slope

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Authors: Ratun Rahman, Rafid Islam, Akin Ahmed, Kamrul Hasan, Hasan Mahmud

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Malware is becoming more prevalent, and several threat categories have risen dramatically in recent years. This paper provides a bird's-eye view of the world of malware analysis. The efficiency of five different machine learning methods (Naive Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and TensorFlow Decision Forest) combined with features picked from the retrieval of Android permissions to categorize applications as harmful or benign is investigated in this study. The test set consists of 1,168 samples (among these android applications, 602 are malware and 566 are benign applications), each consisting of 948 features (permissions). Using the permission-based dataset, the machine learning algorithms then produce accuracy rates above 80%, except the Naive Bayes Algorithm with 65% accuracy. Of the considered algorithms TensorFlow Decision Forest performed the best with an accuracy of 90%.

Keywords: android malware detection, machine learning, malware, malware analysis

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Authors: Carmen Avilés Palacios, Camilo Muñoz Arenas, Joaquín García Alfonso, Jesús González Arteaga, Alberto Alcalde Calonge

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There is a need for review of the consumption and production models of industrialized states in accordance with the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (1) (OECD, 2016). This constitutes the basis of the bioeconomy (2) that is focused on striking a balance between economic development, social development and environmental protection. Bioeconomy promotes the adequate use and consumption of renewable natural resources (3) and involves developing new products and services adapted to the principles of circular economy: more sustainable (reusable, biodegradable, renewable and recyclable) and with a lower carbon footprint (4). In this context, Urban Forest Innovation Lab (UFIL) grows, an Urban Laboratory for experimentation focused on promoting entrepreneurship in forest bioeconomy (www.uiacuenca.es). UFIL generates local wellness taking sustainable advantage of an endogenous asset, forests. UFIL boosts forest bioeconomy opening its doors of knowledge to pioneers in this field, giving the opportunity to be an active part of a change in the way of understanding the exploitation of natural resources, discovering business, learning strategies and techniques and incubating business ideas So far now, 100 entrepreneurs are incubating their nearly 30 new business plans. UFIL has promoted an ecosystem to connect the rural-urban world that promotes sustainable rural development around the forest.

Keywords: bioeconomy, forestry, innovation, entrepreneurship

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Authors: Andrew J. Zacharias

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The forest garden approach (FGA) was established by Trees for the Future (TREES) over the organization’s 30 years of agroforestry projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. This method transforms traditional agricultural systems into highly managed gardens that produce food and marketable products year-round. The effects of the FGA on food security, dietary diversity, and economic resilience have been measured closely, and TREES has begun to closely monitor the environmental impacts through the use of sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles, commonly known as 'drones'. These drones collect thousands of pictures to create 3-D models in both the visible and the near-infrared wavelengths. Analysis of these models provides TREES with quantitative and qualitative evidence of improvements to the annual above-ground biomass and leaf area indices, as measured in-situ using NDVI calculations.

Keywords: agroforestry, biomass, drones, NDVI

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Authors: D. S. Palimkar

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The FRIGDI (functional random integrodifferential inclusion) seems to be new and includes several known random differential inclusions already studied in the literature as special cases have been discussed in the literature for various aspects of the solutions. In this paper, we prove the existence result for FIGDI under the non-convex case of multi-valued function involved in it.Using random fixed point theorem of B. C. Dhage and caratheodory condition. This result is new to the theory of differential inclusion.

Keywords: caratheodory condition, random differential inclusion, random solution, integro-differential inclusion

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Authors: Sony Baral, Harald Vacik

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This study analyzes the sustainability of community forest management in two community forests in Terai and Hills of Nepal, representing four forest types: 1) Shorearobusta, 2) Terai hardwood, 3) Schima-Castanopsis, and 4) other Hills. The sustainability goals for this region include maintaining and enhancing the forest stocks. Considering this, we analysed changes in species composition, stand density, growing stock volume, and growth-to-removal ratio at 3-5 year intervals from 2005-2016 within 109 permanent forest plots (57 in the Terai and 52 in the Hills). To complement inventory data, forest users, forest committee members, and forest officials were consulted. The results indicate that the relative representation of economically valuable tree species has increased. Based on trends in stand density, both forests are being sustainably managed. Pole-sized trees dominated the diameter distribution, however, with a limited number of mature trees and declined regeneration. The forests were over-harvested until 2013 but under-harvested in the recent period in the Hills. In contrast, both forest types were under-harvested throughout the inventory period in the Terai. We found that the ecological dimension of sustainable forest management is strongly achieved while the economic dimension is lacking behind the current potential. Thus, we conclude that maintaining a large number of trees in the forest does not necessarily ensure both ecological and economical sustainability. Instead, priority should be given on a rational estimation of the annual harvest rates to enhance forest resource conditions together with regular benefits to the local communities.

Keywords: community forests, diversity, growing stock, forest management, sustainability, nepal

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Authors: Dhruba Khatri

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Despite the short history of community based forest management, the community forestry program of Nepal has produced substantial positive effects to organize the local people at a local level institution called Community Forest User Group and manage the local forest resources in the line of poverty reduction since its inception in 1970s. Moreover, each CFUG has collected a community fund from the sale of forest products and non-forestry sources as well and the fund has played a vital role to improve the livelihood of user households living in and around the forests. The specific study sites were selected based on the criteria of i) community forests having dominancy of Sal forests, and ii) forests having 3-5 years experience of community forest management. The price rates of forest products fixed by the CFUGs and the distribution records were collected from the respective community forests. Nonetheless, the relation between pricing strategy and community fund collection revealed that the small change in price of forest products could greatly affect in community fund collection and carry out of forest management, community development, and income generation activities in the line of poverty reduction at local level.

Keywords: benefit sharing, community forest, equitable, Nepal

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Authors: A. O. Arowolo, M. U. Agbonlahor, P. A. Okuneye, A. E. Obayelu

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Nigeria is rich with abundant resources with an immense contribution of the forest resource to her economic development and to the livelihood of the rural populace over the years. However, this important resource has continued to shrink because it is not sustainably used, managed or conserved. The loss of forest cover has far reaching consequences on regional, national and global economy as well as the environment. This paper reviewed the Nigeria forest management policies, the challenges and willingness to pay (WTP) for management of the community forests in Ogun State, Nigeria. Data for the empirical investigation were obtained using a cross-section survey of 160 rural households by multistage sampling technique. The WTP was assessed by the Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation. One major findings is that, the Nigerian forest reserves is established in order to conserve and manage forest resources but has since been neglected while the management plans are either non-existent or abandoned. Also, the free areas termed the community forests where people have unrestricted access to exploit are fast diminishing in both contents and scale. The mean WTP for sustainable management of community forests in the study area was positive with a value of ₦389.04/month. The study recommends policy measures aimed at participatory forest management plan which will include the rural communities in the management of community forests. This will help ensure sustainable management of forest resources as well as improve the welfare of the rural households.

Keywords: forests, management, WTP, Nigeria

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Authors: Mario Isaza-Ruget, Claudia C. Colmenares-Mejia, Nancy Yomayusa, Camilo A. González, Andres Cely, Jossie Murcia

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Quantification of risks associated with complications development from chronic kidney disease (CKD) through accurate survival models can help with patient management. A retrospective cohort that included patients diagnosed with CKD from a primary care program and followed up between 2013 and 2018 was carried out. Time-dependent and static covariates associated with demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors were included. Deep Learning (DL) survival analyzes were developed for three CKD outcomes: CKD stage progression, >25% decrease in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR), and Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT). Models were evaluated and compared with Random Survival Forest (RSF) based on concordance index (C-index) metric. 2.143 patients were included. Two models were developed for each outcome, Deep Neural Network (DNN) model reported C-index=0.9867 for CKD stage progression; C-index=0.9905 for reduction in eGFR; C-index=0.9867 for RRT. Regarding the RSF model, C-index=0.6650 was reached for CKD stage progression; decreased eGFR C-index=0.6759; RRT C-index=0.8926. DNN models applied in survival analysis context with considerations of longitudinal covariates at the start of follow-up can predict renal stage progression, a significant decrease in eGFR and RRT. The success of these survival models lies in the appropriate definition of survival times and the analysis of covariates, especially those that vary over time.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chronic kidney disease, deep neural networks, survival analysis

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Authors: Rajkumar N. Ingle

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In this paper, the existence of a solution of nonlinear functional random differential equations of the first order is proved under caratheodory condition. The study of the functional random differential equation has got importance in the random analysis of the dynamical systems of universal phenomena. Objectives: Nonlinear functional random differential equation is useful to the scientists, engineers, and mathematicians, who are engaged in N.F.R.D.E. analyzing a universal random phenomenon, govern by nonlinear random initial value problems of D.E. Applications of this in the theory of diffusion or heat conduction. Methodology: Using the concepts of probability theory, functional analysis, generally the existence theorems for the nonlinear F.R.D.E. are prove by using some tools such as fixed point theorem. The significance of the study: Our contribution will be the generalization of some well-known results in the theory of Nonlinear F.R.D.E.s. Further, it seems that our study will be useful to scientist, engineers, economists and mathematicians in their endeavors to analyses the nonlinear random problems of the universe in a better way.

Keywords: Random Fixed Point Theorem, functional random differential equation, N.F.R.D.E., universal random phenomenon

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Authors: Yuanjin Liu

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Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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Authors: Raghad A. Altowairgi

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With the wide spread of social media platforms, young people tend to use them extensively as the first means of communication due to their ease and modernity. But these platforms often create a fertile ground for bullies to practice their aggressive behavior against their victims. Platform usage cannot be reduced, but intelligent mechanisms can be implemented to reduce the abuse. This is where machine learning comes in. Understanding and classifying text can be helpful in order to minimize the act of cyberbullying. Artificial intelligence techniques have expanded to formulate an applied tool to address the phenomenon of cyberbullying. In this research, machine learning models are built to classify text into two classes; cyberbullying and non-cyberbullying. After preprocessing the data in 4 stages; removing characters that do not provide meaningful information to the models, tokenization, removing stop words, and lowering text. BoW and TF-IDF are used as the main features for the five classifiers, which are; logistic regression, Naïve Bayes, Random Forest, XGboost, and Catboost classifiers. Each of them scores 92%, 90%, 92%, 91%, 86% respectively.

Keywords: cyberbullying, machine learning, Bag-of-Words, term frequency-inverse document frequency, natural language processing, Catboost

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Authors: Sri Wartini

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Based on the sovereignty over natural resources principle, the Indonesian government has an authority to exploit the natural resources within a national jurisdiction of Indonesia. The forest is one of the natural resources which is very valuable for Indonesia. It becomes the source of raw material for many industrial activities, such as pharmaceutical industry, pulp industry, and household furniture industry. Hence, it contributes to the economic development of Indonesia. However, the exploitation of the forest may cause negative impacts, such as environmental pollution and environmental degradation. The implementation of the sovereignty over natural resources principle in Indonesia may jeopardize the forest and affect the sustainability of the forest if there is no appropriate policy of the government to exploit the forest in a sustainable manner. The exploitation of the forest in Indonesia, in some extent, has caused serious impact to environment and biodiversity. Hence, in order to sustain and to maintain the forest as the valuable resources to the future generation, the government of Indonesia has already adopted many programmes and action plans. The aim of the research is to undertake a critical examination of the issues relating to the the implementation of sovereignty over natural resources to the exploitation of the forest in Indonesia. It is a normative research and the methodology employed in this research is library research. While the approaches employed in the research are conceptual approach., statutory approach, and comparative approach. The research finds that the implementation of sovereignty over natural resources principle in the exploitation of the forest in Indonesia is limited by other principles of international environmental law, such as sustainable development principle, intergenerational principle and common concern principle which have been adopted in the government policy and various regulations regarding the exploitation of the forest in Indonesia.

Keywords: Environmental damage, negative impacts, pollution, the sovereignty over natural resources

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Authors: Janece Jean A. Polizon, Victor B. Amoroso

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Mt. Hamiguitan Range in Davao Oriental, Mindanao Island, Philippines is the only protected area with pygmy forest and a priority site for protection and conservation. This range harbors different vegetation types such as agroecosystem, dipterocarp forest, montane forest and mossy forest. This study was conducted to determine the diversity of trees and shrubs in different vegetation types of Mt. Hamiguitan Range. Transect walk and 16 sampling plots of 20 x 20 m were established in the different vegetation types. Specimens collected were classified and identified using the Flora Malesiana and type images. Assessment of status was determined based on International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). There were 223 species of trees, 141 genera and 71 families. Of the vegetation types, the pygmy forest obtained a comparatively high diversity value of H=1.348 followed by montane forest with H=1.284. The high species importance value (SIV) of Diospyros philippinensis for trees indicates that these species have an important role in regulating the stability of the ecosystem. The tree profile of the pygmy forest is different due to the ultramafic substrate causing the dwarfness of the trees. These forest types should be given high priority for protection and conservation.

Keywords: diversity, Mt Hamiguitan, vegetation, trees, shrubs

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Authors: Pei Yi Lin

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Objective: The objective of this study is to use machine learning methods to build an early prediction classifier model for acute delirium to improve the quality of medical care for intensive care patients. Background: Delirium is a common acute and sudden disturbance of consciousness in critically ill patients. After the occurrence, it is easy to prolong the length of hospital stay and increase medical costs and mortality. In 2021, the incidence of delirium in the intensive care unit of internal medicine was as high as 59.78%, which indirectly prolonged the average length of hospital stay by 8.28 days, and the mortality rate is about 2.22% in the past three years. Therefore, it is expected to build a delirium prediction classifier through big data analysis and machine learning methods to detect delirium early. Method: This study is a retrospective study, using the artificial intelligence big data database to extract the characteristic factors related to delirium in intensive care unit patients and let the machine learn. The study included patients aged over 20 years old who were admitted to the intensive care unit between May 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, excluding GCS assessment <4 points, admission to ICU for less than 24 hours, and CAM-ICU evaluation. The CAMICU delirium assessment results every 8 hours within 30 days of hospitalization are regarded as an event, and the cumulative data from ICU admission to the prediction time point are extracted to predict the possibility of delirium occurring in the next 8 hours, and collect a total of 63,754 research case data, extract 12 feature selections to train the model, including age, sex, average ICU stay hours, visual and auditory abnormalities, RASS assessment score, APACHE-II Score score, number of invasive catheters indwelling, restraint and sedative and hypnotic drugs. Through feature data cleaning, processing and KNN interpolation method supplementation, a total of 54595 research case events were extracted to provide machine learning model analysis, using the research events from May 01 to November 30, 2022, as the model training data, 80% of which is the training set for model training, and 20% for the internal verification of the verification set, and then from December 01 to December 2022 The CU research event on the 31st is an external verification set data, and finally the model inference and performance evaluation are performed, and then the model has trained again by adjusting the model parameters. Results: In this study, XG Boost, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Decision Tree were used to analyze and compare four machine learning models. The average accuracy rate of internal verification was highest in Random Forest (AUC=0.86), and the average accuracy rate of external verification was in Random Forest and XG Boost was the highest, AUC was 0.86, and the average accuracy of cross-validation was the highest in Random Forest (ACC=0.77). Conclusion: Clinically, medical staff usually conduct CAM-ICU assessments at the bedside of critically ill patients in clinical practice, but there is a lack of machine learning classification methods to assist ICU patients in real-time assessment, resulting in the inability to provide more objective and continuous monitoring data to assist Clinical staff can more accurately identify and predict the occurrence of delirium in patients. It is hoped that the development and construction of predictive models through machine learning can predict delirium early and immediately, make clinical decisions at the best time, and cooperate with PADIS delirium care measures to provide individualized non-drug interventional care measures to maintain patient safety, and then Improve the quality of care.

Keywords: critically ill patients, machine learning methods, delirium prediction, classifier model

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Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

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Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance, and within study variance and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation

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Authors: Saurav Kumar Suman, P. Karthigayani

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In this paper the height of the tree is estimated and forest types is classified from the multi temporal RISAT-1 Horizontal-Horizontal (HH) and Horizontal-Vertical (HV) Polarised Satellite Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The novelty of the proposed project is combined use of the Back-scattering Coefficients (Sigma Naught) and the Coherence. It uses Water Cloud Model (WCM). The approaches use two main steps. (a) Extraction of the different forest parameter data from the Product.xml, BAND-META file and from Grid-xxx.txt file come with the HH & HV polarized data from the ISRO (Indian Space Research Centre). These file contains the required parameter during height estimation. (b) Calculation of the Vegetation and Ground Backscattering, Coherence and other Forest Parameters. (c) Classification of Forest Types using the ENVI 5.0 Tool and ROI (Region of Interest) calculation.

Keywords: RISAT-1, classification, forest, SAR data

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Authors: M. Hamdi, R. Rhouma, S. Belghith

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Generating random numbers are mainly used to create secret keys or random sequences. It can be carried out by various techniques. In this paper we present a very simple and efficient pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) based on chaotic maps and S-Box tables. This technique adopted two main operations one to generate chaotic values using two logistic maps and the second to transform them into binary words using random S-Box tables. The simulation analysis indicates that our PRNG possessing excellent statistical and cryptographic properties.

Keywords: Random Numbers, Chaotic map, S-box, cryptography, statistical tests

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Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Mohd Zaki Hamzah, Roslan Rani, Ahmad Bazli Razali, Satiful Bahri Mamat, Abdul Hadi Ripin, Mohd Harun Esa

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Ever since 1901, forest management and silviculture practices in Malaysia have been frequently reviewed and updated to take into account changes in forest conditions, markets, timber demand/supply and technical advances that can be achieved in industrial processes, logging and forest harvesting, and currently, the forest management system practiced in Peninsular Malaysia is the Selective Management System (SMS) which was introduced in 1978. This system requires the selection of management regime (felling) based on Pre-Felling Forest Inventory (Pre-F) data to ensure economical harvesting and also ensuring adequate standing stands for subsequent rounds of felling, while maintaining ecological balance and environmental quality. SMS regulates forest harvesting through area and volume controls, with the cutting cycle 30 years. Most of the forest management units (FMU) (in Peninsular Malaysia) implementing SMS have been certified by Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and/or Program for Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC), and one such FMU belongs to Kumpulan Pengurusan Kayu Kayan Terengganu (KPKKT). KPKKT, a timber management subsidiary of Golden Pharos Berhad (GPB), adopts the SMS to manage its 108,900 ha of timber concessionary areas in its role as logs’ supplier for the consumption of three subsidiaries of GPB. KPKKT is also responsible for the sustainable development and management of its concession in accordance with the Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) standards to ensure that it addresses the loss of forest cover and forest degradation, forest-based economic, social and environmental benefits, and ecologically protecting forests while mobilising financial resources for the implementation of sustainable forest management planning, harvesting, monitoring and the marketing of products. This paper will detail out the management and harvesting guidelines imposed by the controlling government agency, and harvesting processes taken by KPKKT to comply with guidelines and eventually supplying timber to the relevant subsidiaries (downstream mills under GPB).

Keywords: sustainable forest management, silviculture, reduce impact logging, forest certification

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Authors: Carlos Gonzales, Zaida Quiroz, Marcos Prates

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Several spatial variables collected at the same location that share a common spatial distribution can be modeled simultaneously through a multivariate geostatistical model that takes into account the correlation between these variables and the spatial autocorrelation. The main goal of this model is to perform spatial prediction of these variables in the region of study. Here we focus on a geostatistical multivariate formulation that relies on sharing common spatial random effect terms. In particular, the first response variable can be modeled by a mean that incorporates a shared random spatial effect, while the other response variables depend on this shared spatial term, in addition to specific random spatial effects. Each spatial random effect is defined through a Gaussian process with a valid covariance function, but in order to improve the computational efficiency when the data are large, each Gaussian process is approximated to a Gaussian random Markov field (GRMF), specifically to the block nearest neighbor Gaussian process (Block-NNGP). This approach involves dividing the spatial domain into several dependent blocks under certain constraints, where the cross blocks allow capturing the spatial dependence on a large scale, while each individual block captures the spatial dependence on a smaller scale. The multivariate geostatistical model belongs to the class of Latent Gaussian Models; thus, to achieve fast Bayesian inference, it is used the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The good performance of the proposed model is shown through simulations and applications for massive data.

Keywords: Block-NNGP, geostatistics, gaussian process, GRMF, INLA, multivariate models.

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Authors: Mohammed Abaoli Abafogi, Sinem Satiroglu, M. Misir

Abstract:

The current study has addressed the effect of Hazelnut (Corylus avellana) agroforestry on carbon sequestration. Eight sample plots were collected from Hazelnut (Corylus avellana) agroforestry using random sampling method. The diameter of all trees in each plot with ≥ 2cm at 1.3m DBH was measured by using a calliper. Average diameter, aboveground biomass, and carbon stock were calculated for each plot. Comparative data for natural forestland was used for C was taken from KTU, and the soil C was converted from the biomass conversion equation. Biomass carbon was significantly higher in the Natural forest (68.02Mgha⁻¹) than in the Hazelnut agroforestry (16.89Mgha⁻¹). SOC in Hazelnut agroforestry, Natural forest, and arable agricultural land were 7.70, 385.85, and 0.00 Mgha⁻¹ respectively. Biomass C, on average accounts for only 0.00% of the total C in arable agriculture, and 11.02% for the Hazelnut agroforestry while 88.05% for Natural forest. The result shows that the conversion of arable crop field to Hazelnut agroforestry can sequester a large amount of C in the soil as well as in the biomass than Arable agricultural lands.

Keywords: arable agriculture, biomass carbon, carbon sequestration, hazelnut (Corylus avellana) agroforestry, soil organic carbon

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Ali Hesari, Arezoo Esmaeeli

Abstract:

Regarding to dramatic changes of fertility and higher order births during recent decades in Iran, access to knowledge about affecting factors on different birth orders has crucial importance. In this study, According to hierarchical structure of many of social sciences data and the effect of variables of different levels of social phenomena that determine different birth orders in 365 days ending to 1390 census have been explored by multilevel approach. In this paper, 2% individual row data for 1390 census is analyzed by HLM software. Three different hierarchical linear regression models are estimated for data analysis of the first and second, third, fourth and more birth order. Research results displays different outcomes for three models. Individual level variables entered in equation are; region of residence (rural/urban), age, educational level and labor participation status and province level variable is GDP per capita. Results show that individual level variables have different effects in these three models and in second level we have different random and fixed effects in these models.

Keywords: fertility, birth order, hierarchical approach, fixe effects, random effects

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: A. J. Julius, E. Imoagene, O. A. Ganiyu

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the services and functions rendered by the forest landscape using a conditional logit model. For this study, attributes and levels of forest landscape were chosen; specifically, attributes include topographical forest type, forest type, forest density, recreational factor (side trip, accessibility of valley), and willingness to participate (WTP). Based on these factors, 48 choices sets with balanced and orthogonal form using statistical analysis system (SAS) 9.1 was adopted. The efficiency of the questionnaire was 6.02 (D-Error. 0.1), and choice set and socio-economic variables were analyzed. To reduce the cognitive load of respondents, the 48 choice sets were divided into 4 types in the questionnaire, so that respondents could respond to 12 choice sets, respectively. The study populations were citizens from seven metropolitan cities including Ibadan, Ilorin, Osogbo, etc. and annual WTP per household was asked by using the interview questionnaire, a total of 267 copies were recovered. As a result, Oshogbo had 0.45, and the statistical similarities could not be found except for urban forests, forest density, recreational factor, and level of WTP. Average annual WTP per household for forest landscape was 104,758 Naira (Nigerian currency) based on the outcome from this model, total economic value of the services and functions enjoyed from Nigerian forest landscape has reached approximately 1.6 trillion Naira.

Keywords: economic valuation, urban cities, services, forest landscape, logit model, nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Azeez O. Ganiyu

Abstract:

Climate change is expected to lead to substantial changes in rainfall patterns in southwest Nigeria, and this may have substantial consequence for forest management and for conservation outcomes throughout the region. We examine three different forest types across an environmental spectrum from semi-arid to humid subtropical and consider their response to water shortages and other environmental stresses; we also explore the potential consequence for conservation and timber production by considering impacts on forest structure and limiting stand density. Analysis of a series of scenarios provides the basis for a critique of existing management practices and suggests practical alternatives to develop resilient forests with minimal diminution of production and environmental services. We specifically discuss practical silviculture interventions that are feasible at the landscape-scale, that are economically viable, and that have the potential to enhance resilience of forest stands. We also discuss incentives to encourage adoption of these approaches by private forest owners. We draw on these case studies in southwestern Nigeria to offer generic principle to assist forest researchers and managers faced with similar challenges elsewhere.

Keywords: climate change, forest, future, silviculture, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Pawas Suren

Abstract:

The conflict between livelihood and forest protection has been a perpetual phenomenon in India. In the era of climate change, the problem is expected to aggravate the declining trend of dense forest in the country, creating impediments in the climate change adaptation by the forest dependent communities. In order to access the complexity of the problem, Hazarinagh and Chatra districts of Jharkhand were selected as a case study. To identify norms practiced by the communities to manage community forestry, the ethnographic study was designed to understand the values, traditions, and cultures of forest dependent communities, most of whom were tribal. It was observed that internalization of efficient forest norms is reflected in the pride and honor of such behavior while violators are sanctioned through guilt and shame. The study analyzes the effect of norms being practiced in the management and ecology of community forestry as common property resource. The light of the findings led towards the gaps in the prevalent forest laws to address efficient allocation of property rights. The conclusion embarks on reconsidering accepted factors of forest degradation in India.

Keywords: climate change, common property resource, community forestry, norms

Procedia PDF Downloads 320