Search results for: precipitation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 735

Search results for: precipitation

615 Multi-Indicator Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Trends in Ethiopia: Implications for Dry Land Agriculture and Food Security

Authors: Dawd Ahmed, Venkatesh Uddameri

Abstract:

Agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic sector influenced by agricultural drought. A simultaneous assessment of drought trends using multiple drought indicators is useful for drought planning and management. Intra-season and seasonal drought trends in Ethiopia were studied using a suite of drought indicators. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Z-index for long-rainy, dry, and short-rainy seasons are used to identify drought-causing mechanisms. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction and data analyses. Trend analysis indicated shifts in late-season long-rainy season precipitation into dry in the southwest and south-central portions of Ethiopia. Droughts during the dry season (October–January) were largely temperature controlled. Short-term temperature-controlled hydrologic processes exacerbated rainfall deficits during the short rainy season (February–May) and highlight the importance of temperature- and hydrology-induced soil dryness on the production of short-season crops such as tef. Droughts during the long-rainy season (June–September) were largely driven by precipitation declines arising from the narrowing of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Increased dryness during long-rainy season had severe consequences on the production of corn and sorghum. PDSI was an aggressive indicator of seasonal droughts suggesting the low natural resilience to combat the effects of slow-acting, moisture-depleting hydrologic processes. The lack of irrigation systems in the nation limits the ability to combat droughts and improve agricultural resilience. There is an urgent need to monitor soil moisture (a key agro-hydrologic variable) to better quantify the impacts of meteorological droughts on agricultural systems in Ethiopia.

Keywords: autocorrelation, climate change, droughts, Ethiopia, food security, palmer z-index, PDSI, SPEI, SPI, trend analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
614 Comparison of Rainfall Trends in the Western Ghats and Coastal Region of Karnataka, India

Authors: Vinay C. Doranalu, Amba Shetty

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In recent days due to climate change, there is a large variation in spatial distribution of daily rainfall within a small region. Rainfall is one of the main end climatic variables which affect spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. The real task postured by the change in climate is identification, estimation and understanding the uncertainty of rainfall. This study intended to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of daily precipitation using high resolution (0.25º x 0.25º) gridded data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). For the study, 38 grid points were selected in the study area and analyzed for daily precipitation time series (113 years) over the period 1901-2013. Grid points were divided into two zones based on the elevation and situated location of grid points: Low Land (exposed to sea and low elevated area/ coastal region) and High Land (Interior from sea and high elevated area/western Ghats). Time series were applied to examine the spatial analysis and temporal trends in each grid points by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator to perceive the nature of trend and magnitude of slope in trend of rainfall. Pettit-Mann-Whitney test is applied to detect the most probable change point in trends of the time period. Results have revealed remarkable monotonic trend in each grid for daily precipitation of the time series. In general, by the regional cluster analysis found that increasing precipitation trend in shoreline region and decreasing trend in Western Ghats from recent years. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be partly explained by heterogeneity in temporal trends of rainfall by change point analysis. The Mann-Kendall test shows significant variation as weaker rainfall towards the rainfall distribution over eastern parts of the Western Ghats region of Karnataka.

Keywords: change point analysis, coastal region India, gridded rainfall data, non-parametric

Procedia PDF Downloads 261
613 Grassland Phenology in Different Eco-Geographic Regions over the Tibetan Plateau

Authors: Jiahua Zhang, Qing Chang, Fengmei Yao

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Studying on the response of vegetation phenology to climate change at different temporal and spatial scales is important for understanding and predicting future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics andthe adaptation of ecosystems to global change. In this study, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset and climate data were used to analyze the dynamics of grassland phenology as well as their correlation with climatic factors in different eco-geographic regions and elevation units across the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that during 2003–2012, the start of the grassland greening season (SOS) appeared later while the end of the growing season (EOS) appeared earlier following the plateau’s precipitation and heat gradients from southeast to northwest. The multi-year mean value of SOS showed differences between various eco-geographic regions and was significantly impacted by average elevation and regional average precipitation during spring. Regional mean differences for EOS were mainly regulated by mean temperature during autumn. Changes in trends of SOS in the central and eastern eco-geographic regions were coupled to the mean temperature during spring, advancing by about 7d/°C. However, in the two southwestern eco-geographic regions, SOS was delayed significantly due to the impact of spring precipitation. The results also showed that the SOS occurred later with increasing elevation, as expected, with a delay rate of 0.66 d/100m. For 2003–2012, SOS showed an advancing trend in low-elevation areas, but a delayed trend in high-elevation areas, while EOS was delayed in low-elevation areas, but advanced in high-elevation areas. Grassland SOS and EOS changes may be influenced by a variety of other environmental factors in each eco-geographic region.

Keywords: grassland, phenology, MODIS, eco-geographic regions, elevation, climatic factors, Tibetan Plateau

Procedia PDF Downloads 297
612 Classification of Precipitation Types Detected in Malaysia

Authors: K. Badron, A. F. Ismail, A. L. Asnawi, N. F. A. Malik, S. Z. Abidin, S. Dzulkifly

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The occurrences of precipitation, also commonly referred as rain, in the form of "convective" and "stratiform" have been identified to exist worldwide. In this study, the radar return echoes or known as reflectivity values acquired from radar scans have been exploited in the process of classifying the type of rain endured. The investigation use radar data from Malaysian Meteorology Department (MMD). It is possible to discriminate the types of rain experienced in tropical region by observing the vertical characteristics of the rain structure. .Heavy rain in tropical region profoundly affects radiowave signals, causing transmission interference and signal fading. Required wireless system fade margin depends on the type of rain. Information relating to the two mentioned types of rain is critical for the system engineers and researchers in their endeavour to improve the reliability of communication links. This paper highlights the quantification of percentage occurrences over one year period in 2009.

Keywords: stratiform, convective, tropical region, attenuation radar reflectivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 256
611 Comparison of Soils of Hungarian Dry and Humid Oak Forests Based on Changes in Nutrient Content

Authors: István Fekete, Imre Berki, Áron Béni, Katalin Juhos, Marianna Makádi, Zsolt Kotroczó

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The average annual precipitation significantly influences the moisture content of the soils and, through this, the decomposition of the organic substances in the soils, the leaching of nutrients from the soils, and the pH of the soils. Climate change, together with the lengthening of the vegetation period and the increasing CO₂ level, can increase the amount of biomass that is formed. Degradation processes, which accelerate as the temperature increases and slow down due to the drying climate, and the change in the degree of leaching can cancel out or strengthen each other's effects. In the course of our research, we looked for oak forests with climate-zonal soils where the geological, geographical and ecological background conditions are as similar as possible, apart from the different annual precipitation averages and the differences that can arise from them. We examined 5 dry and 5 humid Hungarian oak soils. Climate change affects the soils of drier and wetter forests differently. The aim of our research was to compare the content of carbon, nitrogen and some other nutrients, as well as the pH of the soils of humid and dry forests. Showing the effects of the drier climate on the tested soil parameters. In the case of the examined forest soils, we found a significant difference between the soils of dry and humid forests: in the case of the annual average precipitation values (p≥ 0.0001, for dry forest soils: 564±5.2 mm; for humid forest soils: 716±3.8 mm) for pH (p= 0.0004, for dry forest soils: 5.49±0.16; for wet forest soils: 5.36±0.21); for C content (p= 0.0054, for dry forest soils: 6.92%±0.59; for humid forest soils 3.09%±0.24), for N content (p= 0.0022, dry forest in the case of soils: 0.44%±0.047; in the case of humid forest soils: 0.23%±0.013), for the K content (p=0.0017, in the case of dry forest soils: 5684±732 (mg/kg); in the case of humid forest soils 2169±196 (mg/kg)), for the Ca content (p= 0.0096, for dry forest soils: 8207±2118 (mg/kg); for wet forest soils 957±320 (mg/kg)). No significant difference was found in the case of Mg. In a wetter environment, especially if the moisture content of the soil is also optimal for the decomposing organisms during the growing season, the decomposition of organic residues accelerates, and the processes of leaching from the soil are also intensified. The different intensity of the leaching processes is also well reflected in the quantitative differences of Ca and K, and in connection with these, it is also reflected in the difference in pH values. The differences in the C and N content can be explained by differences in the intensity of the decomposition processes. In addition to warming, drying is expected in a significant part of Hungary due to climate change. Thus, the comparison of the soils of dry and humid forests allows us to predict the subsequent changes in the case of the examined parameters.

Keywords: soil nutrients, precipitation difference, climate change, organic matter decomposition, leaching

Procedia PDF Downloads 48
610 Protein and Mineral Removal from Dairy Waste-Water Using Precipitation Process

Authors: Zahra Akbari, Farzin Zokaee, Talat Ghomashchi

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Whey is a by-product of the dairy industry whose major components are lactose (44–52 g/L), proteins (6–8 g/L) and mineral salts (4–9 g/L). Approximately 50% of 121 million tons of whey produced in the world in 1993 were disposed into rivers, lakes or other water bodies, treated in wastewater treatment plants or loaded onto land. This represents a significant loss of resources and causes serious pollution problems since whey is a heavy organic pollutant with high COD and BOD values, 40–60 g/L and 50–80 g/L, respectively. The removal of cheese whey proteins and minerals represent an important task both in environmental and in food sciences. The most important treatments which are considered in this study, have been done by using lime, Al2O3, FeCl3 and AlCl3 along with heating and also acidic-alkaline method. Results show that the best way for removal of protein is accomplished with adding HCl to decrease pH from 6 to 4, boiling for 20 min, and filtering protein aggregates. Also partial demineralization in whey solution for reducing ash is accomplished by adding NaOH to increase pH to 7.2 and heating solution for 20 min.

Keywords: whey treatment, dairy industry, precipitation, protein, mineral

Procedia PDF Downloads 387
609 Improved Performance of Mn Substituted Ceria Nanospheres for Water Gas Shift Reaction: Influence of Preparation Conditions

Authors: Bhairi Lakshminarayana, Surajit Sarker, Ch. Subrahmanyam

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The present study reports the development of noble metal free nano catalysts for low-temperature CO oxidation and water gas shift reaction. Mn-substituted CeO2 solid solution catalysts were synthesized by co-precipitation, combustion and hydrothermal methods. The formation of solid solution was confirmed by XRD with Rietveld refinement and the percentage of carbon and nitrogen doping was ensured by CHNS analyzer. Raman spectroscopic confirmed the oxygen vacancies. The surface area, pore volume and pore size distribution confirmed by N2 physisorption analysis, whereas, UV-visible diffuse reflectance spectroscopy and XPS data confirmed the oxidation state of the Mn ion. The particle size and morphology (spherical shape) of the material was confirmed using FESEM and HRTEM analysis. Ce0.8Mn0.2O2-δ was calcined at 400 °C, 600 °C and 800 °C. Raman spectroscopy confirmed that the catalyst calcined at 400 °C has the best redox properties. The activity of the designed catalysts for CO oxidation (0.2 vol%), carried out with GHSV of 21,000 h-1 and it has been observed that co-precipitation favored the best active catalyst towards CO oxidation and water gas shift reaction, due to the high surface area, improved reducibility, oxygen mobility and highest quantity of surface oxygen species. The activation energy of low temperature CO oxidation on Ce0.8Mn0.2O2- δ (combustion) was 5.5 kcal.K-1.mole-1. The designed catalysts were tested for water gas shift reaction. The present study demonstrates that Mn ion substituted ceria at 400 °C calcination temperature prepared by co-precipitation method promise to revive a green sustainable energy production approach.

Keywords: Ce0.8Mn0.2O2-ð, CO oxidation, physicochemical characterization, water gas shift reaction (WGS)

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608 Sea Surface Trend over the Arabian Sea and Its Influence on the South West Monsoon Rainfall Variability over Sri Lanka

Authors: Sherly Shelton, Zhaohui Lin

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In recent decades, the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation over the India and Sri Lanka has intensified significantly with an increased frequency of both abnormally dry and wet summers. Therefore prediction of the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation is crucial and urgent for water management and local agriculture scheduling. However, none of the hypotheses put forward so far could understand the relationship to monsoon variability and related factors that affect to the South West Monsoon (SWM) variability in Sri Lanka. This study focused to identify the spatial and temporal variability of SWM rainfall events from June to September (JJAS) over Sri Lanka and associated trend. The monthly rainfall records covering 1980-2013 over the Sri Lanka are used for 19 stations to investigate long-term trends in SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. The linear trends of atmospheric variables are calculated to understand the drivers behind the changers described based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature and atmospheric reanalysis products data for 34 years (1980–2013). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to understand the spatial and temporal behaviour of seasonal SWM rainfall variability and also investigate whether the trend pattern is the dominant mode that explains SWM rainfall variability. The spatial and stations based precipitation over the country showed statistically insignificant decreasing trends except few stations. The first two EOFs of seasonal (JJAS) mean of rainfall explained 52% and 23 % of the total variance and first PC showed positive loadings of the SWM rainfall for the whole landmass while strongest positive lording can be seen in western/ southwestern part of the Sri Lanka. There is a negative correlation (r ≤ -0.3) between SMRI and SST in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean which indicate that lower temperature in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean are associated with greater rainfall over the country. This study also shows that consistently warming throughout the Indian Ocean. The result shows that the perceptible water over the county is decreasing with the time which the influence to the reduction of precipitation over the area by weakening drawn draft. In addition, evaporation is getting weaker over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Sri Lankan landmass which leads to reduction of moisture availability required for the SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. At the same time, weakening of the SST gradients between Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal can deteriorate the monsoon circulation, untimely which diminish SWM over Sri Lanka. The decreasing trends of moisture, moisture transport, zonal wind, moisture divergence with weakening evaporation over Arabian Sea, during the past decade having an aggravating influence on decreasing trends of monsoon rainfall over the Sri Lanka.

Keywords: Arabian Sea, moisture flux convergence, South West Monsoon, Sri Lanka, sea surface temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 102
607 Water Balance Components under Climate Change in Croatia

Authors: Jelena Bašić, Višnjica Vučetić, Mislav Anić, Tomislav Bašić

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Lack of precipitation combined with high temperatures causes great damage to the agriculture and economy in Croatia. Therefore, it is important to understand water circulation and balance. We decided to gain a better insight into the spatial distribution of water balance components (WBC) and their long-term changes in Croatia. WBC are precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture content (S), runoff (RO), recharge (R), and soil moisture loss (L). Since measurements of the mentioned components in Croatia are very rare, the Palmer model has been applied to estimate them. We refined method by setting into the account the corrective factor to include influence effects of the wind as well as a maximum soil capacity for specific soil types. We will present one hundred years’ time series of PET and ET showing the trends at few meteorological stations and a comparison of components of two climatological periods. The meteorological data from 109 stations have been used for the spatial distribution map of the WBC of Croatia.

Keywords: croatia, long-term trends, the palmer method, water balance components

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
606 Evaluation of Satellite and Radar Rainfall Product over Seyhan Plain

Authors: Kazım Kaba, Erdem Erdi, M. Akif Erdoğan, H. Mustafa Kandırmaz

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Rainfall is crucial data source for very different discipline such as agriculture, hydrology and climate. Therefore rain rate should be known well both spatial and temporal for any area. Rainfall is measured by using rain-gauge at meteorological ground stations traditionally for many years. At the present time, rainfall products are acquired from radar and satellite images with a temporal and spatial continuity. In this study, we investigated the accuracy of these rainfall data according to rain-gauge data. For this purpose, we used Adana-Hatay radar hourly total precipitation product (RN1) and Meteosat convective rainfall rate (CRR) product over Seyhan plain. We calculated daily rainfall values from RN1 and CRR hourly precipitation products. We used the data of rainy days of four stations located within range of the radar from October 2013 to November 2015. In the study, we examined two rainfall data over Seyhan plain and the correlation between the rain-gauge data and two raster rainfall data was observed lowly.

Keywords: meteosat, radar, rainfall, rain-gauge, Turkey

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605 Oil Reservoir Asphalting Precipitation Estimating during CO2 Injection

Authors: I. Alhajri, G. Zahedi, R. Alazmi, A. Akbari

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In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed to predict Asphaltene Precipitation (AP) during the injection of carbon dioxide into crude oil reservoirs. In this study, the experimental data from six different oil fields were collected. Seventy percent of the data was used to develop the ANN model, and different ANN architectures were examined. A network with the Trainlm training algorithm was found to be the best network to estimate the AP. To check the validity of the proposed model, the model was used to predict the AP for the thirty percent of the data that was unevaluated. The Mean Square Error (MSE) of the prediction was 0.0018, which confirms the excellent prediction capability of the proposed model. In the second part of this study, the ANN model predictions were compared with modified Hirschberg model predictions. The ANN was found to provide more accurate estimates compared to the modified Hirschberg model. Finally, the proposed model was employed to examine the effect of different operating parameters during gas injection on the AP. It was found that the AP is mostly sensitive to the reservoir temperature. Furthermore, the carbon dioxide concentration in liquid phase increases the AP.

Keywords: artificial neural network, asphaltene, CO2 injection, Hirschberg model, oil reservoirs

Procedia PDF Downloads 344
604 Hydrometallurgical Processing of a Nigerian Chalcopyrite Ore

Authors: Alafara A. Baba, Kuranga I. Ayinla, Folahan A. Adekola, Rafiu B. Bale

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Due to increasing demands and diverse applications of copper oxide as pigment in ceramics, cuprammonium hydroxide solution for rayon, p-type semi-conductor, dry cell batteries production and as safety disposal of hazardous materials, a study on the hydrometallurgical operations involving leaching, solvent extraction and precipitation for the recovery of copper for producing high grade copper oxide from a Nigerian chalcopyrite ore in chloride media has been examined. At a particular set of experimental parameter with respect to acid concentration, reaction temperature and particle size, the leaching investigation showed that the ore dissolution increases with increasing acid concentration, temperature and decreasing particle diameter at a moderate stirring. The kinetics data has been analyzed and was found to follow diffusion control mechanism. At optimal conditions, the extent of ore dissolution reached 94.3%. The recovery of the total copper from the hydrochloric acid-leached chalcopyrite ore was undertaken by solvent extraction and precipitation techniques, prior to the beneficiation of the purified solution as copper oxide. The purification of the leach liquor was firstly done by precipitation of total iron and manganese using Ca(OH)2 and H2O2 as oxidizer at pH 3.5 and 4.25, respectively. An extraction efficiency of 97.3% total copper was obtained by 0.2 mol/L Dithizone in kerosene at 25±2ºC within 40 minutes, from which ≈98% Cu from loaded organic phase was successfully stripped by 0.1 mol/L HCl solution. The beneficiation of the recovered pure copper solution was carried out by crystallization through alkali addition followed by calcination at 600ºC to obtain high grade copper oxide (Tenorite, CuO: 05-0661). Finally, a simple hydrometallurgical scheme for the operational extraction procedure amenable for industrial utilization and economic sustainability was provided.

Keywords: chalcopyrite ore, Nigeria, copper, copper oxide, solvent extraction

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603 Comparative Catalytic Activity of Some Ferrites for Phenol Degradation in Aqueous Solutions

Authors: Bayan Alqassem, Israa A. Othman, Mohammed Abu Haija, Fawzi Banat

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The treatment of wastewater from highly toxic pollutants is one of the most challenging issues for humanity. In this study, the advanced oxidation process (AOP) was employed to study the catalytic degradation of phenol using different ferrite catalysts which are CoFe₂O₄, CrFe₂O₄, CuFe₂O₄, MgFe₂O₄, MnFe₂O₄, NiFe₂O₄ and ZnFe₂O₄. The ferrite catalysts were prepared via sol-gel and co-precipitation methods. Different ferrite composites were also prepared either by varying the metal ratios or incorporating chemically reduced graphene oxide in the ferrite cluster. The effect of phosphoric acid treatment on the copper ferrite activity. All of the prepared catalysts were characterized using infrared spectroscopy (IR), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The ferrites catalytic activities were tested towards phenol degradation using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The experimental results showed that ferrites prepared through sol-gel route were more active than those of the co-precipitation method towards phenol degradation. In both cases, CuFe₂O₄ exhibited the highest degradation of phenol compared to the other ferrites. The photocatalytic properties of the ferrites were also investigated.

Keywords: ferrite catalyst, ferrite composites, phenol degradation, photocatalysis

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602 Synoptic Analysis of a Heavy Flood in the Province of Sistan-Va-Balouchestan: Iran January 2020

Authors: N. Pegahfar, P. Ghafarian

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In this research, the synoptic weather conditions during the heavy flood of 10-12 January 2020 in the Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province of Iran will be analyzed. To this aim, reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis data, measured data from a surface station together with satellite images from the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) have been used from 9 to 12 January 2020. Atmospheric parameters both at the lower troposphere and also at the upper part of that have been used, including absolute vorticity, wind velocity, temperature, geopotential height, relative humidity, and precipitation. Results indicated that both lower-level and upper-level currents were strong. In addition, the transport of a large amount of humidity from the Oman Sea and the Red Sea to the south and southeast of Iran (Sistan-va-Balouchestan Province) led to the vast and unexpected precipitation and then a heavy flood.

Keywords: Sistan-va-Balouchestn Province, heavy flood, synoptic, analysis data

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
601 Evaluation of Differential Interaction between Flavanols and Saliva Proteins by Diffusion and Precipitation Assays on Cellulose Membranes

Authors: E. Obreque-Slier, V. Contreras-Cortez, R. López-Solís

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Astringency is a drying, roughing, and sometimes puckering sensation that is experienced on the various oral surfaces during or immediately after tasting foods. This sensation has been closely related to the interaction and precipitation between salivary proteins and polyphenols, specifically flavanols or proanthocyanidins. In addition, the type and concentration of proanthocyanidin influences significantly the intensity of the astringency and consequently the protein/proanthocyanidin interaction. However, most of the studies are based on the interaction between saliva and highly complex polyphenols, without considering the effect of monomeric proanthoancyanidins present in different foods. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of different monomeric proanthocyanidins on the diffusion and precipitation of salivary proteins. Thus, solutions of catechin, epicatechin, epigallocatechin and gallocatechin (0, 2.0, 4.0, 6.0, 8.0 and 10 mg/mL) were mixed with human saliva (1: 1 v/v). After incubation for 5 min at room temperature, 15 µL aliquots of each mix were dotted on a cellulose membrane and allowed to dry spontaneously at room temperature. The membrane was fixed, rinsed and stained for proteins with Coomassie blue. After exhaustive washing in 7% acetic acid, the membrane was rinsed once in distilled water and dried under a heat lamp. Both diffusion area and stain intensity of the protein spots were semiqualitative estimates for protein-tannin interaction (diffusion test). The rest of the whole saliva-phenol solution mixtures of the diffusion assay were centrifuged, and 15-μL aliquots from each of the supernatants were dotted on a cellulose membrane. The membrane was processed for protein staining as indicated above. The blue-stained area of protein distribution corresponding to each of the extract dilution-saliva mixtures was quantified by Image J 1.45 software. Each of the assays was performed at least three times. Initially, salivary proteins display a biphasic distribution on cellulose membranes, that is, when aliquots of saliva are placed on absorbing cellulose membranes, and free diffusion of saliva is allowed to occur, a non-diffusible protein fraction becomes surrounded by highly diffusible salivary proteins. In effect, once diffusion has ended, a protein-binding dye shows an intense blue-stained roughly circular area close to the spotting site (non-diffusible fraction) (NDF) which becomes surrounded by a weaker blue-stained outer band (diffusible fraction) (DF). Likewise, the diffusion test showed that epicatechin caused the complete disappearance of DF from saliva with 2 mg/mL. Also, epigallocatechin and gallocatechin caused a similar effect with 4 mg/mL, while catechin generated the same effect at 8 mg/mL. In the precipitation test, the use of epicatechin and gallocatechin generated evident precipitates at the bottom of the Eppendorf tubes. In summary, the flavanol type differentially affects the diffusion and precipitation of saliva, which would affect the sensation of astringency perceived by consumers.

Keywords: astringency, polyphenols, tannins, tannin-protein interaction

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600 Comparison of the Hydration Products of Commercial and Experimental Calcium Silicate Cement: The Preliminary Observational Study

Authors: Seok Woo Chang

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Aim: The objective of this study was to compare and evaluate the hydration products of commercial and experimental calcium silicate cement. Materials and Methods: The commercial calcium silicate cement (ProRoot MTA, Dentsply) and experimental calcium silicate cement (n=10) were mixed with distilled water (water/powder ratio = 20 w/w) and stirred at room temperature for 10 hours. These mixtures were dispersed on wafer and dried for 12 hours at room temperature. Thereafter, the dried specimens were examined with Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). Electron Dispersive Spectrometry (EDS) was also carried out. Results: The commercial calcium silicate cement (ProRoot MTA) and experimental calcium silicate cement both showed precipitation of rod-like and globule-like crystals. Based on EDS analysis, these precipitates were supposed to be calcium hydroxide or calcium silicate hydrates. The degree of formation of these precipitates was higher in commercial MTA. Conclusions: Based on the results, both commercial and experimental calcium silicate cement had ability to produce calcium hydroxide or calcium silicate hydrate precipitates.

Keywords: calcium silicate cement, ProRoot MTA, precipitation, calcium hydroxide, calcium silicate hydrate

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599 Spatial Climate Changes in the Province of Macerata, Central Italy, Analyzed by GIS Software

Authors: Matteo Gentilucci, Marco Materazzi, Gilberto Pambianchi

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Climate change is an increasingly central issue in the world, because it affects many of human activities. In this context regional studies are of great importance because they sometimes differ from the general trend. This research focuses on a small area of central Italy which overlooks the Adriatic Sea, the province of Macerata. The aim is to analyze space-based climate changes, for precipitation and temperatures, in the last 3 climatological standard normals (1961-1990; 1971-2000; 1981-2010) through GIS software. The data collected from 30 weather stations for temperature and 61 rain gauges for precipitation were subject to quality controls: validation and homogenization. These data were fundamental for the spatialization of the variables (temperature and precipitation) through geostatistical techniques. To assess the best geostatistical technique for interpolation, the results of cross correlation were used. The co-kriging method with altitude as independent variable produced the best cross validation results for all time periods, among the methods analysed, with 'root mean square error standardized' close to 1, 'mean standardized error' close to 0, 'average standard error' and 'root mean square error' with similar values. The maps resulting from the analysis were compared by subtraction between rasters, producing 3 maps of annual variation and three other maps for each month of the year (1961/1990-1971/2000; 1971/2000-1981/2010; 1961/1990-1981/2010). The results show an increase in average annual temperature of about 0.1°C between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 and 0.6 °C between 1961-1990 and 1981-2010. Instead annual precipitation shows an opposite trend, with an average difference from 1961-1990 to 1971-2000 of about 35 mm and from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 of about 60 mm. Furthermore, the differences in the areas have been highlighted with area graphs and summarized in several tables as descriptive analysis. In fact for temperature between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 the most areally represented frequency is 0.08°C (77.04 Km² on a total of about 2800 km²) with a kurtosis of 3.95 and a skewness of 2.19. Instead, the differences for temperatures from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 show a most areally represented frequency of 0.83 °C, with -0.45 as kurtosis and 0.92 as skewness (36.9 km²). Therefore it can be said that distribution is more pointed for 1961/1990-1971/2000 and smoother but more intense in the growth for 1961/1990-1981/2010. In contrast, precipitation shows a very similar shape of distribution, although with different intensities, for both variations periods (first period 1961/1990-1971/2000 and second one 1961/1990-1981/2010) with similar values of kurtosis (1st = 1.93; 2nd = 1.34), skewness (1st = 1.81; 2nd = 1.62 for the second) and area of the most represented frequency (1st = 60.72 km²; 2nd = 52.80 km²). In conclusion, this methodology of analysis allows the assessment of small scale climate change for each month of the year and could be further investigated in relation to regional atmospheric dynamics.

Keywords: climate change, GIS, interpolation, co-kriging

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598 Production and Characterisation of Lipase from a Novel Streptomyces.sp - Its Molecular Identification

Authors: C. Asha Poorna, N. S. Pradeep

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The biological function of lipase is to catalyze the hydrolysis of triacylglycerols to give free fatty acid, diacylglycerols, mono-acylglycerols and glycerol. They constitute the most important group of biocatalysts for biotechnological applications. The aim of the present study was to identify the lipolytic activity of Streptomyces sp. From soil sample collected from the sacred groves of southern Kerala. The culture conditions of the isolate were optimised and the enzyme was purified and characterised. The purification was attempted with acetone precipitation. The isolate observed to have high lipolytic activity and identified to be of Streptomyces strain. The purification was attempted with acetone precipitation. The purified enzyme observed to have an apparent molecular mass of ~60kDa by sodium dodecyl sulphate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE). The enzyme showed maximum activity at 60oC and pH-8. The lipase showed tolerance towards different organic solvents like ethanol and methanol that are commonly used in transesterification reactions to displace alcohol from triglycerides contained in renewable resources to yield fatty acid alkyl esters known as biodiesel.

Keywords: lipase, Streptomyces, biodiesel, fatty acid, transesterification

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597 Formation of ZnS/ZnO Heterojunction for Photocatalytic Hydrogen Evolution Using Partial Oxidation and Chemical Precipitation Synthesis Methods

Authors: Saba Didarataee, Abbas Ali Khodadadi, Yadollah Mortazavi, Fatemeh Mousavi

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Photocatalytic water splitting is one of the most attractive alternative methods for hydrogen evolution. A variety of nanoparticle engineering techniques were introduced to improve the activity of semiconductor photocatalysts. Among these methods, heterojunction formation is an appealing method due to its ability to effectively preventing electron-hole recombination and improving photocatalytic activity. Reaching an optimal ratio of the two target semiconductors for the formation of heterojunctions is still an open question. Considering environmental issues as well as the cost and availability, ZnS and ZnO are frequently studied as potential choices. In this study, first, the ZnS nanoparticle was synthesized in a hydrothermal process; the formation of ZnS nanorods with a diameter of 14-30 nm was confirmed by field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM). Then two different methods, partial oxidation and chemical precipitation were employed to construct ZnS/ZnO core-shell heterojunction. X-ray diffraction (XRD), BET, and diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) analysis were carried out to determine crystallite phase, surface area, and bandgap of photocatalysts. Furthermore, the temperature of oxidation was specified by a temperature programmed oxidation (TPO) and was fixed at 510℃, at which mild oxidation occurred. The bandgap was calculated by the Kubelka-Munk method and decreased by increasing oxide content from 3.53 (pure ZnS) to 3.18 (pure ZnO). The optimal samples were determined by testing the photocatalytic activity of hydrogen evolution in a quartz photoreactor with side irradiation of UVC lamps with a wavelength of 254 nm. In both procedures, it was observed that the photocatalytic activity of the ZnS/ZnO composite was sensibly higher than the pure ZnS and ZnO, which is attributed to forming a type-II heterostructure. The best ratio of oxide to sulfide was 0.24 and 0.37 in partial oxidation and chemical precipitation, respectively. The highest hydrogen evolution was 1081 µmol/gr.h, gained from partial oxidizing of ZnS nanoparticles at 510℃ for 30 minutes.

Keywords: heterostructure, hydrogen, partial oxidation, photocatalyst, water splitting, ZnS

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596 Mobility of Metallic Trace Elements (MTE) in Water and Sediment of the Rivers: Case of Nil River, North-Eastern Algerian

Authors: S. Benessam, T. H. Debieche, S. Amiour, A. Chine, S. Khelili

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The metallic trace elements (MTE) are present in water and sediments of the rivers with weak concentrations. Several physicochemical parameters (Eh, pH and oxygen dissolved) and chemical processes (adsorption, absorption, complexation and precipitation) as well as nature of the sediments control their mobility. In order to determine the effect of these factors on the mobility of some MTE (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn) in water of the rivers, a two-monthly monitoring of the physicochemical parameters and chemistry of water and sediments of the Nil wadi (Algeria) was carried out during the period from November 2013 to January 2015. The results show that each MTE has its own conditions of mobility and generally are very influence by the variations of the pH and Eh. Under the natural conditions, neutral pH with basic and medium oxidizing, only the lead presented in water with raised values, indicating its solubility in water and its salting out of the sediments. The other MTE present raised concentrations in the sediments, indicating their trapping by adsorption and/or chemical precipitation. The chemical form of each ETM was given by Eh-pH diagrams. The spatio-temporal monitoring of these ETM shows the effect of the rains, the dry periods and the rejects in the variation of their concentrations.

Keywords: chemistry, metallic trace elements, sediment, water

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595 Application of Random Forest Model in The Prediction of River Water Quality

Authors: Turuganti Venkateswarlu, Jagadeesh Anmala

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Excessive runoffs from various non-point source land uses, and other point sources are rapidly contaminating the water quality of streams in the Upper Green River watershed, Kentucky, USA. It is essential to maintain the stream water quality as the river basin is one of the major freshwater sources in this province. It is also important to understand the water quality parameters (WQPs) quantitatively and qualitatively along with their important features as stream water is sensitive to climatic events and land-use practices. In this paper, a model was developed for predicting one of the significant WQPs, Fecal Coliform (FC) from precipitation, temperature, urban land use factor (ULUF), agricultural land use factor (ALUF), and forest land-use factor (FLUF) using Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model, a novel ensemble learning algorithm, can even find out advanced feature importance characteristics from the given model inputs for different combinations. This model’s outcomes showed a good correlation between FC and climate events and land use factors (R2 = 0.94) and precipitation and temperature are the primary influencing factors for FC.

Keywords: water quality, land use factors, random forest, fecal coliform

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594 Review of Hydrologic Applications of Conceptual Models for Precipitation-Runoff Process

Authors: Oluwatosin Olofintoye, Josiah Adeyemo, Gbemileke Shomade

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The relationship between rainfall and runoff is an important issue in surface water hydrology therefore the understanding and development of accurate rainfall-runoff models and their applications in water resources planning, management and operation are of paramount importance in hydrological studies. This paper reviews some of the previous works on the rainfall-runoff process modeling. The hydrologic applications of conceptual models and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the precipitation-runoff process modeling were studied. Gradient training methods such as error back-propagation (BP) and evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are discussed in relation to the training of artificial neural networks and it is shown that application of EAs to artificial neural networks training could be an alternative to other training methods. Therefore, further research interest to exploit the abundant expert knowledge in the area of artificial intelligence for the solution of hydrologic and water resources planning and management problems is needed.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, gradient training method, rainfall-runoff model

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593 Climate Change Effects in a Mediterranean Island and Streamflow Changes for a Small Basin Using Euro-Cordex Regional Climate Simulations Combined with the SWAT Model

Authors: Pier Andrea Marras, Daniela Lima, Pedro Matos Soares, Rita Maria Cardoso, Daniela Medas, Elisabetta Dore, Giovanni De Giudici

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Climate change effects on the hydrologic cycle are the main concern for the evaluation of water management strategies. Climate models project scenarios of precipitation changes in the future, considering greenhouse emissions. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) climate models were first evaluated in a Mediterranean island (Sardinia) against observed precipitation for a historical reference period (1976-2005). A weighted multi-model ensemble (ENS) was built, weighting the single models based on their ability to reproduce observed rainfall. Future projections (2071-2100) were carried out using the 8.5 RCP emissions scenario to evaluate changes in precipitations. ENS was then used as climate forcing for the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), with the aim to assess the consequences of such projected changes on streamflow and runoff of two small catchments located in the South-West Sardinia. Results showed that a decrease of mean rainfall values, up to -25 % at yearly scale, is expected for the future, along with an increase of extreme precipitation events. Particularly in the eastern and southern areas, extreme events are projected to increase by 30%. Such changes reflect on the hydrologic cycle with a decrease of mean streamflow and runoff, except in spring, when runoff is projected to increase by 20-30%. These results stress that the Mediterranean is a hotspot for climate change, and the use of model tools can provide very useful information to adopt water and land management strategies to deal with such changes.

Keywords: EURO-CORDEX, climate change, hydrology, SWAT model, Sardinia, multi-model ensemble

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592 The Morphology and Flash Flood Characteristics of the Transboundary Khowai River: A Catchment Scale Analysis

Authors: Jonahid Chakder, Mahfuzul Haque

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Flash flood is among the foremost disastrous characteristic hazards which cause hampering within the environment and social orders due to climate change across the world. In Northeastern region of Bangladesh faces severe flash floods regularly, Such, the Khowai river is a flash flood-prone river. But until now, there are no previous studies about the flash flood of this river. Farmlands Building resilience, protection of crops & fish enclosures of wetland in Habiganj Haor areas, regional roads, and business establishments were submerged due to flash floods. The flash floods of the Khowai River are frequent events, which happened in 1988, 1998, 2000, 2007, 2017, and 2019. Therefore, this study tries to analyze Khowai river morphology, Precipitation, Water level, Satellite image, and Catchment characteristics: a catchment scale analysis that helps to comprehend Khowai river flash flood characteristics and factors of influence. From precipitation analysis, the finding outcome disclosed the data about flash flood accurate zones at the Khowai district watershed. The morphological analysis workout from satellite image and find out the consequence of sinuosity and gradient of this river. The sinuosity indicates that the Khowai river is an antecedent and a meandering river and a meandering river can’t influence the flash flood of any region, but other factors respond here. It is understood that the Khowai river catchment elevation analysis from DEM is directly influenced. The left Baramura and Right Atharamura anticline of the Khowai basin watershed reflects a major impact on the stratigraphy as an impermeable clay layer and this consequence the water passes downward with the drainage pattern and Tributary. This drainage system, the gradient of tributary and their runoff, and the confluence of water in the pre-monsoon season rise the Khowai river water level which influences flash floods (within six hours of Precipitation).

Keywords: geology, gradient, tributary, drainage, watershed, flash flood

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591 Ultrafine Non Water Soluble Drug Particles

Authors: Shahnaz Mansouri, David Martin, Xiao Dong Chen, Meng Wai Woo

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Ultrafine hydrophobic and non-water-soluble drugs can increase the percentage of absorbed compared to their initial dosage. This paper provides a scalable new method of making ultrafine particles of substantially insoluble water compounds specifically, submicron particles of ethanol soluble and water insoluble pharmaceutical materials by steaming an ethanol droplet to prepare a suspension and then followed by immediate drying. This suspension is formed by adding evaporated water molecules as an anti-solvent to the solute of the samples and in early stage of precipitation continued to dry by evaporating both solvent and anti-solvent. This fine particle formation has produced fast dispersion powder in water. The new method is an extension of the antisolvent vapour precipitation technique which exposes a droplet to an antisolvent vapour with reference to the dissolved materials within the droplet. Ultrafine vitamin D3 and ibuprofen particles in the submicron ranges were produced. This work will form the basis for using spray dryers as high-throughput scalable micro-precipitators.

Keywords: single droplet drying, nano size particles, non-water-soluble drugs, precipitators

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590 Extraction of Phycocyanin from Spirulina platensis by Isoelectric Point Precipitation and Salting Out for Scale Up Processes

Authors: Velasco-Rendón María Del Carmen, Cuéllar-Bermúdez Sara Paulina, Parra-Saldívar Roberto

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Phycocyanin is a blue pigment protein with fluorescent activity produced by cyanobacteria. It has been recently studied to determine its anticancer, antioxidant and antiinflamatory potential. Since 2014 it was approved as a Generally Recognized As Safe (GRAS) proteic pigment for the food industry. Therefore, phycocyanin shows potential for the food, nutraceutical, pharmaceutical and diagnostics industry. Conventional phycocyanin extraction includes buffer solutions and ammonium sulphate followed by chromatography or ATPS for protein separation. Therefore, further purification steps are time-requiring, energy intensive and not suitable for scale-up processing. This work presents an alternative to conventional methods that also allows large scale application with commercially available equipment. The extraction was performed by exposing the dry biomass to mechanical cavitation and salting out with NaCl to use an edible reagent. Also, isoelectric point precipitation was used by addition of HCl and neutralization with NaOH. The results were measured and compared in phycocyanin concentration, purity and extraction yield. Results showed that the best extraction condition was the extraction by salting out with 0.20 M NaCl after 30 minutes cavitation, with a concentration in the supernatant of 2.22 mg/ml, a purity of 3.28 and recovery from crude extract of 81.27%. Mechanical cavitation presumably increased the solvent-biomass contact, making the crude extract visibly dark blue after centrifugation. Compared to other systems, our process has less purification steps, similar concentrations in the phycocyanin-rich fraction and higher purity. The contaminants present in our process edible NaCl or low pHs that can be neutralized. It also can be adapted to a semi-continuous process with commercially available equipment. This characteristics make this process an appealing alternative for phycocyanin extraction as a pigment for the food industry.

Keywords: extraction, phycocyanin, precipitation, scale-up

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589 Impact of Climate Change on Flow Regime in Himalayan Basins, Nepal

Authors: Tirtha Raj Adhikari, Lochan Prasad Devkota

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This research studied the hydrological regime of three glacierized river basins in Khumbu, Langtang and Annapurna regions of Nepal using the Hydraologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavde (HBV), HVB-light 3.0 model. Future scenario of discharge is also studied using downscaled climate data derived from statistical downscaling method. General Circulation Models (GCMs) successfully simulate future climate variability and climate change on a global scale; however, poor spatial resolution constrains their application for impact studies at a regional or a local level. The dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature data from Coupled Global Circulation Model 3 (CGCM3) was used for the climate projection, under A2 and A1B SRES scenarios. In addition, the observed historical temperature, precipitation and discharge data were collected from 14 different hydro-metrological locations for the implementation of this study, which include watershed and hydro-meteorological characteristics, trends analysis and water balance computation. The simulated precipitation and temperature were corrected for bias before implementing in the HVB-light 3.0 conceptual rainfall-runoff model to predict the flow regime, in which Groups Algorithms Programming (GAP) optimization approach and then calibration were used to obtain several parameter sets which were finally reproduced as observed stream flow. Except in summer, the analysis showed that the increasing trends in annual as well as seasonal precipitations during the period 2001 - 2060 for both A2 and A1B scenarios over three basins under investigation. In these river basins, the model projected warmer days in every seasons of entire period from 2001 to 2060 for both A1B and A2 scenarios. These warming trends are higher in maximum than in minimum temperatures throughout the year, indicating increasing trend of daily temperature range due to recent global warming phenomenon. Furthermore, there are decreasing trends in summer discharge in Langtang Khola (Langtang region) which is increasing in Modi Khola (Annapurna region) as well as Dudh Koshi (Khumbu region) river basin. The flow regime is more pronounced during later parts of the future decades than during earlier parts in all basins. The annual water surplus of 1419 mm, 177 mm and 49 mm are observed in Annapurna, Langtang and Khumbu region, respectively.

Keywords: temperature, precipitation, water discharge, water balance, global warming

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588 Statistical Modeling and by Artificial Neural Networks of Suspended Sediment Mina River Watershed at Wadi El-Abtal Gauging Station (Northern Algeria)

Authors: Redhouane Ghernaout, Amira Fredj, Boualem Remini

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Suspended sediment transport is a serious problem worldwide, but it is much more worrying in certain regions of the world, as is the case in the Maghreb and more particularly in Algeria. It continues to take disturbing proportions in Northern Algeria due to the variability of rains in time and in space and constant deterioration of vegetation. Its prediction is essential in order to identify its intensity and define the necessary actions for its reduction. The purpose of this study is to analyze the concentration data of suspended sediment measured at Wadi El-Abtal Hydrometric Station. It also aims to find and highlight regressive power relationships, which can explain the suspended solid flow by the measured liquid flow. The study strives to find models of artificial neural networks linking the flow, month and precipitation parameters with solid flow. The obtained results show that the power function of the solid transport rating curve and the models of artificial neural networks are appropriate methods for analysing and estimating suspended sediment transport in Wadi Mina at Wadi El-Abtal Hydrometric Station. They made it possible to identify in a fairly conclusive manner the model of neural networks with four input parameters: the liquid flow Q, the month and the daily precipitation measured at the representative stations (Frenda 013002 and Ain El-Hadid 013004 ) of the watershed. The model thus obtained makes it possible to estimate the daily solid flows (interpolate and extrapolate) even beyond the period of observation of solid flows (1985/86 to 1999/00), given the availability of the average daily liquid flows and daily precipitation since 1953/1954.

Keywords: suspended sediment, concentration, regression, liquid flow, solid flow, artificial neural network, modeling, mina, algeria

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587 HCl-Based Hydrometallurgical Recycling Route for Metal Recovery from Li-Ion Battery Wastes

Authors: Claudia Schier, Arvid Biallas, Bernd Friedrich

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The demand for Li-ion-batteries owing to their benefits, such as; fast charging time, high energy density, low weight, large temperature range, and a long service life performance is increasing compared to other battery systems. These characteristics are substantial not only for battery-operated portable devices but also in the growing field of electromobility where high-performance energy storage systems in the form of batteries are highly requested. Due to the sharp rising production, there is a tremendous interest to recycle spent Li-Ion batteries in a closed-loop manner owed to the high content of valuable metals such as cobalt, manganese, and lithium as well as regarding the increasing demand for those scarce applied metals. Currently, there are just a few industrial processes using hydrometallurgical methods to recover valuable metals from Li-ion-battery waste. In this study, the extraction of valuable metals from spent Li-ion-batteries is investigated by pretreated and subsequently leached battery wastes using different precipitation methods in a comparative manner. For the extraction of lithium, cobalt, and other valuable metals, pelletized battery wastes with an initial Li content of 2.24 wt. % and cobalt of 22 wt. % is used. Hydrochloric acid with 4 mol/L is applied with 1:50 solid to liquid (s/l) ratio to generate pregnant leach solution for subsequent precipitation steps. In order to obtain pure precipitates, two different pathways (pathway 1 and pathway 2) are investigated, which differ from each other with regard to the precipitation steps carried out. While lithium carbonate recovery is the final process step in pathway 1, pathway 2 requires a preliminary removal of lithium from the process. The aim is to evaluate both processes in terms of purity and yield of the products obtained. ICP-OES is used to determine the chemical content of leach liquor as well as of the solid residue.

Keywords: hydrochloric acid, hydrometallurgy, Li-ion-batteries, metal recovery

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586 Spatial and Temporal Variability of Meteorological Drought Including Atmospheric Circulation in Central Europe

Authors: Andrzej Wałęga, Marta Cebulska, Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Wojciech Młocek, Agnieszka Wałęga, Tommaso Caloiero

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Drought is one of the natural phenomena influencing many aspects of human activities like food production, agriculture, industry, and the ecological conditions of the environment. In the area of the Polish Carpathians, there are periods with a deficit of rainwater and an increasing frequency in dry months, especially in the cold half of the year. The aim of this work is a spatial and temporal analysis of drought, expressed as SPI in a heterogenous area of the Polish Carpathian and of the highland Region in the Central part of Europe based on long-term precipitation data. Also, to our best knowledge, for the first time in this work, drought characteristics analyzed via the SPI were discussed based on the atmospheric circulation calendar. The study region is the Upper Vistula Basin, located in the southern and south-eastern part of Poland. In this work, monthly precipitation from 56 rainfall stations was analysed from 1961 to 2022. The 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used as indicators of meteorological drought. For the 3-month SPI, the main climatic mechanisms determining extreme droughts were defined based on the calendar of synoptic circulations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the trend of extreme droughts. Statistically significant trends of SPI were observed on 52.7% of all analyzed stations, and in most cases, a positive trend was observed. Statistically significant trends were more frequently observed in stations located in the western part of the analyzed region. Long-term droughts, represented by the 12-month SPI, occurred in all stations but not in all years. Short-term droughts (3-month SPI) were most frequent in the winter season, 6 and 9-month SPI in winter and spring, and 12-month SPI in winter and autumn, respectively. The spatial distribution of drought was highly diverse. The most intensive drought occurred in 1984, with the 6-month SPI covering 98% of the analyzed region and the 9 and 12-month SPI covering 90% of the entire region. Droughts exhibit a seasonal pattern, with a dominant 10-year periodicity for all analyzed variants of SPI. Additionally, Fourier analysis revealed a 2-year periodicity for the 3-, 6-, and 9-month SPI and a 31-year periodicity for the 12-month SPI. The results provide insights into the typical climatic conditions in Poland, with strong seasonality in precipitation. The study highlighted that short-term extreme droughts, represented by the 3-month SPI, are often caused by anticyclonic situations with high-pressure wedges Ka and Wa, and anticyclonic West as observed in 52.3% of cases. These findings are crucial for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of short and long-term extreme droughts in Central Europe, particularly for the agriculture sector dominant in the northern part of the analyzed region, where drought frequency is highest.

Keywords: atmospheric circulation, drought, precipitation, SPI, the Upper Vistula Basin

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