Search results for: penalized logistic regression

Authors: Narges Ebadi, Davod Ahmadi, Hiliary Monteith, Hugo Melgar-Quinonez

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Migration cannot necessarily relieve pressure on water resources in origin communities, and male out-migration can increase the water management burden of women. However, inflows of financial remittances seem to offer possibilities of investing in improving drinking-water access. Therefore, remittances may be an important pathway for migrants to support water security. This paper explores the association between water access and the receipt of remittances in households in sub-Saharan Africa. Data from round 6 of the 'Afrobarometer' surveys in 2016 were used (n= 49,137). Descriptive, bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were carried out in this study. Regardless of country, findings from descriptive analyses showed that approximately 80% of the respondents never received remittance, and 52% had enough clean water. Only one-fifth of the respondents had piped water supply inside the house (19.9%), and approximately 25% had access to a toilet inside the house. Bivariate analyses revealed that even though receiving remittances was significantly associated with water supply, the strength of association was very weak. However, other factors such as the area of residence (rural vs. urban), cash income frequencies, electricity access, and asset ownership were strongly associated with water access. Results from unadjusted multinomial logistic regression revealed that the probability of having no access to piped water increased among remittance recipients who received financial support at least once a month (OR=1.324) (p < 0.001). In contrast, those not receiving remittances were more likely to regularly have a water access concern (OR=1.294) (p < 0.001), and not have access to a latrine (OR=1.665) (p < 0.001). In conclusion, receiving remittances is significantly related to water access as the strength of odds ratios for socio-demographic factors was stronger.

Keywords: remittances, water access, SSA, migration

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Authors: Iman Fakhrian, Ali Salehi Manzari

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Consistent Profitability is one of the most important priorities in manufacturing companies. One of the fundamental factors for increasing the companies profitability is cost management. Isfahan's mobarakeh steel company is one of the largest producers of the slab product grades in the middle east. Raw material cost constitutes about 70% of the company's expenditures. The costs of the ferro alloys have a remarkable contribution of the raw material costs. This research aims to determine the ferro alloys which have significant effect on the variability of the standard cost of the slab product grades. Used data in this study were collected from standard costing system of isfahan's mobarakeh steel company in 2022. The results of conducting the regression analysis model show that expense items: 03020, 03045, 03125, 03130 and 03150 have dominant role in variability of the standard cost of the slab product grades. In other words, the mentioned ferro alloys have noticeable and significant role in variability of the standard cost of the slab product grades.

Keywords: consistent profitability, ferro alloys, slab product grades, regression analysis

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Authors: Rita U. Onolemhemhen, Saheed L. Bello, Akin P. Iwayemi

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The effectiveness of energy demand policy depends on identifying the key drivers of energy demand both in the short-run and the long-run. This paper examines the influence of regional differences on the link between energy demand and other explanatory variables for Nigeria, China and USA using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. This study employed annual time series data on energy consumption (ED), real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (RGDP), real energy prices (P) and urbanization (N) for a thirty-six-year sample period. The utilized time-series data are sourced from World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI, 2016) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results from the study, shows that all the independent variables (income, urbanization, and price) substantially affect the long-run energy consumption in Nigeria, USA and China, whereas, income has no significant effect on short-run energy demand in USA and Nigeria. In addition, the long-run effect of urbanization is relatively stronger in China. Urbanization is a key factor in energy demand, it therefore recommended that more attention should be given to the development of rural communities to reduce the inflow of migrants into urban communities which causes the increase in energy demand and energy excesses should be penalized while energy management should be incentivized.

Keywords: economic growth, energy demand, income, real GDP, urbanization, VECM

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Authors: I Putu Yuda Hananta, Inke Kusumastuti

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The latest Indonesian Biology and Behavior Surveillance (IBBS) conducted by Indonesian Ministry of Health reported a large proportion of men who have sex with men (MSM) engaging in oral sex in their recent sexual history. While it is considered as a pleasuring and safe, oral sex might facilitate the transmission of various sexually transmitted infection (STI) pathogens. This study was aimed to investigate the oral sex practice among MSM in Indonesian urban settings to help delineate demographic and behavior determinants of such practice. In 2014, 501 MSM in 8 clinic-based and outreach STI services were recruited in Jakarta, Yogyakarta and Denpasar, Indonesia. Respondents completed a self-administered questionnaire inquiring about their demographics and sexual history. Median age (interquartile range) of the respondents was 27 (24-30) years; most completed senior high school (54.3%), worked in informal jobs (57.9%), and single (60.9%); and 32.3% reported receiving money in exchange for sex. Oral sex was practiced by most respondents: insertive only (10.0%), receptive only (6.0%), and both (82.4%). A separate multivariable analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the determinants for receptive and insertive oral sex. Factors associated with receptive oral sex were having more than 10 sex partner(s) in the preceding 6 months vs 1 partner, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) [95% CI]=3.40 [1.22-9.42], p=0.03; and history of receptive-insertive anal sex vs no history, aOR=4.37 [1.76-10.82], p=0.01. Factors associated with insertive oral sex were receiving money for sex vs. not receiving, aOR=2.98 [1.10-8.04], p=0.02; and history of receptive-insertive anal sex vs. no history, aOR=2.10 [0.51-8.74], p<0.001. Only a few respondents reported consistent condom use (11.6% and 12.0% for receptive and insertive oral sex, respectively). Our findings demonstrated that while oral sex is a common practice among MSM, the consistency of condom use in oral sex is very low. In addition, certain sex behavior (number of sex partners, sex work and history of anal sex) were associated with oral sex, and this might need to be addressed during health promotion efforts on STI prevention through oral-genital contact.

Keywords: behavior, Indonesia, men who have sex with men, oral sex

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Authors: Seyedtaghi Mirmohammadi, Jamshid Yazdani, Syavash Etemadi Nejad

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One of the main indoor air parameters in classrooms is dust pollution and it depends on the particle size and exposure duration. However, there is a lake of data about the exposure level to PM2.5 concentrations in rural area classrooms. The objective of the current study was exposure assessment for PM2.5 for students in the classrooms. One year monitoring was carried out for fifteen schools by time-series sampling to evaluate the indoor air PM2.5 in the rural district of Sari city, Iran. A hygrometer and thermometer were used to measure some psychrometric parameters (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) and Real-Time Dust Monitor, (MicroDust Pro, Casella, UK) was used to monitor particulate matters (PM2.5) concentration. The results show the mean indoor PM2.5 concentration in the studied classrooms was 135µg/m3. The regression model indicated that a positive correlation between indoor PM2.5 concentration and relative humidity, also with distance from city center and classroom size. Meanwhile, the regression model revealed that the indoor PM2.5 concentration, the relative humidity, and dry bulb temperature was significant at 0.05, 0.035, and 0.05 levels, respectively. A statistical predictive model was obtained from multiple regressions modeling for indoor PM2.5 concentration and indoor psychrometric parameters conditions.

Keywords: classrooms, concentration, humidity, particulate matters, regression

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Authors: Vivian Correa

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Hypothesis There are typical patterns - phenotypes - of sleep behaviors by age and biological sex groups of parasomnia patients where wearable devices could avoid injuries. Materials and methods We analyzed public video records on sleep-related behaviors likely representing parasomnias, looking for phenotypes in different groups. We searched public internet databases using the keywords “sleepwalking”, “sleep eating,” “sleep sex”, and “aggression in sleep” in six languages. Poor-quality vide-records and those showing apparently faked sleep behaviors were excluded. We classified the videos into estimated sex and age (children, adults, elderly) groups; scored the activity types by a self-made scoring scale; and applied binary logistic regression for analyzing the association between sleep behaviors versus the groups by STATA package providing 95% confidence interval and the probability of statistical significance. Results 224 videos (102 women) were analyzed. The odds of sleepwalking and related dangerous behaviors were lower in the elderly than in adults (P<0.025). Females performed complex risky behaviors during sleepwalking more often than males (P<0.012). Elderly people presented emotional behaviors less frequently than adults (P<0.004), and females showed them twice often as males. Elderly males had 40-fold odds compared to adults and children to perform aggressive movements and 70-fold odds of complex movements in the bed compared to adults. Conclusion Unlike other groups, the high chances of adults being sleepwalkers and elderly males performing intense and violent movements in bed showed us the importance of developing wearable parasomnia devices to prevent injuries.

Keywords: parasomnia, wearable devices, sleepwalking, RBD

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Authors: Min Wei

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The traditional prediction methods of the forecast for tourism market are paid more attention to the accuracy of the forecasts, ignoring the results of the feasibility of forecasting and predicting operability, which had made it difficult to predict the results of scientific testing. With the application of Linear Regression Model, this paper attempts to construct a scientific evaluation system for predictive value, both to ensure the accuracy, stability of the predicted value, and to ensure the feasibility of forecasting and predicting the results of operation. The findings show is that a scientific evaluation system can implement the scientific concept of development, the harmonious development of man and nature co-ordinate.

Keywords: linear regression model, tourism market, forecast, tourism economics

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Authors: Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme, Benoit Faye, Eric Le Fur

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In this paper, the heterogeneity of the Bordeaux Legends 50 wine market price segment is addressed. For this purpose, quantile regression is applied – with market segmentation based on wine bottle price quantile – and the hedonic price of wine attributes is computed for various price segments of the market. The approach is applied to a major privately held data set which consists of approximately 30,000 transactions over the 2003–2014 period. The findings suggest that the relative hedonic prices of several wine attributes differ significantly among deciles. In particular, the elasticity coefficient of the expert ratings shows strong variation among prices. If - as suggested in the literature - expert ratings have a positive influence on wine price on average, they have a clearly decreasing impact over the quantiles. Finally, the lower the wine price, the higher the potential for price appreciation over time. Other variables such as chateaux or vintage are also shown to vary across the distribution of wine prices. While enhancing our understanding of the complex market dynamics that underlie Bordeaux wines’ price, this research provides empirical evidence that the QR approach adequately captures heterogeneity among wine price ranges, which simultaneously applies to wine stock, vintage and auctions’ house.

Keywords: hedonics, market segmentation, quantile regression, heterogeneity, wine economics

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Authors: Thidathit Prachanukool, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Welawat Tienpratarn, Sorravit Savatmongkorngul, Panvilai Tangkulpanich, Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong, Yuranan Phootothum, Malivan Phontabtim, Promphet Nuanprom

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Background: Ruptured appendicitis has a high morbidity and mortality and requires immediate surgery. The Alvarado Score is used as a tool to predict the risk of acute appendicitis, but there is no such score for predicting rupture. This study aimed to developed the prediction score to determine the likelihood of ruptured appendicitis in an Asian population. Methods: This study was diagnostic, retrospectively cross-sectional and exploratory model at the Emergency Medicine Department in Ramathibodi Hospital between March 2016 and March 2018. The inclusion criteria were age >15 years and an available pathology report after appendectomy. Clinical factors included gender, age>60 years, right lower quadrant pain, migratory pain, nausea and/or vomiting, diarrhea, anorexia, fever>37.3°C, rebound tenderness, guarding, white blood cell count, polymorphonuclear white blood cells (PMN)>75%, and the pain duration before presentation. The predictive model and prediction score for ruptured appendicitis was developed by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Result: During the study period, 480 patients met the inclusion criteria; of these, 77 (16%) had ruptured appendicitis. Five independent factors were predictive of rupture, age>60 years, fever>37.3°C, guarding, PMN>75%, and duration of pain>24 hours to presentation. A score > 6 increased the likelihood ratio of ruptured appendicitis by 3.88 times. Conclusion: Using the Ramathibodi Welawat Ruptured Appendicitis Score. (RAMA WeRA Score) developed in this study, a score of > 6 was associated with ruptured appendicitis.

Keywords: predictive model, risk score, ruptured appendicitis, emergency room

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Authors: Phan Thi Song Thuong

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This paper uses data from a survey on the green consumption behavior of Hanoi residents in October 2022. Data was gathered from a survey conducted in ten districts in the center of Hanoi, with 393 respondents. The hypothesis focuses on understanding the factors that may affect green consumption behavior, such as demographic characteristics, concerns about the environment and health, people living around, self-efficiency, and mass media. A number of methods, such as the T-test, exploratory factor analysis, and a linear regression model, are used to prove the hypotheses. Accordingly, the results show that gender, age, and education level have separate effects on the green consumption behavior of respondents.

Keywords: green consumption, urban residents, environment, sustainable, linear regression

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Authors: Chao Sima, Shanaz Ghandhi, Sally A. Amundson, Michael L. Bittner, David J. Brenner

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In a large-scale radiologic emergency, potentially affected population need to be triaged efficiently using various biomarkers where personal dosimeters are not likely worn by the individuals. It has long been established that radiation injury can be estimated effectively using panels of genetic biomarkers. Furthermore, the rate of radiation, in addition to dose of radiation, plays a major role in determining biological responses. Therefore, a better and more accurate triage involves estimating both the dose level of the exposure and the length of time of that exposure. To that end, a large in vivo study was carried out on mice with internal emitter caesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs). Four different injection doses of ¹³⁷Cs were used: 157.5 μCi, 191 μCi, 214.5μCi, and 259 μCi. Cohorts of 6~7 mice from the control arm and each of the dose levels were sacrificed, and blood was collected 2, 3, 5, 7 and 14 days after injection for microarray RNA gene expression analysis. Using a generalized linear model with penalized maximum likelihood, a panel of 244 genes was established and both the doses of injection and the number of days after injection were accurately predicted for all 155 subjects using this panel. This has proven that microarray gene expression can be used effectively in radiation biodosimetry in predicting both the dose levels and the length of exposure time, which provides a more holistic view on radiation exposure and helps improving radiation damage assessment and treatment.

Keywords: caesium-137, gene expression microarray, multivariate responses prediction, radiation biodosimetry

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Authors: Anan Jarab, Riham Almrayat, Salam Alqudah, Maher Khdour, Tareq Mukattash, Sharell Pinto

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Background: The prevalence of diabetes in Jordan is among the highest in the world, making it a particularly alarming health problem there. It has been indicated that poor adherence to the prescribed therapy lead to poor glycemic control and enhance the development of diabetes complications and unnecessary hospitalization. Purpose: To explore factors associated with medication non-adherence in patients with type 2 diabetes in Jordan. Materials and Methods: Variables including socio-demographics, disease and therapy factors, diabetes knowledge, and health-related quality of life in addition to adherence assessment were collected for 171 patients with type 2 diabetes using custom-designed and validated questionnaires. Logistic regression was performed to develop a model with variables that best predicted medication non-adherence in patients with type 2 diabetes in Jordan. Results: The majority of the patients (72.5%) were non-adherent. Patients were found four times less likely to adhere to their medications with each unit increase in the number of prescribed medications (OR = 0.244, CI = 0.08-0.63) and nine times less likely to adhere to their medications with each unit increase in the frequency of administration of diabetic medication (OR = 0.111, CI = 0.04-2.01). Patients in the present study were also approximately three times less likely (OR = 0.362, CI = 0.24-0.87) to adhere to their medications if they reported having concerns about side effects and twice more likely to adhere to medications (OR = 0.493, CI = 0.08-1.16) if they had one or more micro-vascular complication. Conclusion: The current study revealed low adherence rate to the prescribed therapy among Jordanians with type 2 diabetes. Simplifying dosage regimen, selecting treatments with lower side effects along with an emphasis on diabetes complications should be taken into account when developing care plans for patients with type 2 diabetes.

Keywords: type 2 diabetes, adherence, glycemic control, clinical pharmacist, Jordan

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Authors: Anna Siuda-Bak

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This paper adopts a comparative approach to examining the determinants of international mobility of German, Italian and British researchers who completed their doctoral education in the UK. Structured sampling and data collection techniques have been developed in order to retrieve information on participants from publicly available sources. This systematically collected data was supplemented with an on-line survey which captures participants’ job trajectories, including movements between positions, institutions and countries. In total, data on 949 German, Italian and British PhDs was collected. Logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with one’s probability of moving outside the UK after his or her graduation. The predictor variables included factors associated with one’s PhD (field of study, ranking of the university which awarded the PhD degree) and family factors (having a child, nationality of the partner). Then, 9 constrained models were estimated to test the effect each variable has on probability of going to a specific destination, being English-speaking country, non-English speaking country or returning to the home country. The results show that females, arts and humanities graduates, and respondents with a partner from the UK are less mobile than their counterparts. The effect of the ranking of the university differed in two groups. The UK graduates from higher ranked universities were more likely to move abroad than to stay in the UK after their graduation. In contrast, non-UK natives from the same universities were less likely to be internationally mobile than non-UK natives from lower ranked universities. The nationality of the partner was the most important predictor of the specific destination choices. Graduates with partner from the home county were more likely to return home and those with a partner from the third country least likely to return.

Keywords: doctoral graduates, international mobility, nationality, UK

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Authors: Sharon Jackson White

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Purpose: Nurse practitioners (NPs) practicing within hospital medicine play a significant role in caring for patients who might benefit from palliative care (PC) services. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior, the purpose of this study was to examine the relationships among facilitators to referral, barriers to referral, self-efficacy with end-of-life discussions, history of referral, and referring to PC among NPs in hospital medicine. Hypotheses: 1) Perceived facilitators to referral will be associated with a higher history of referral and a higher number of referrals to PC. 2) Perceived barriers to referral will be associated with a lower history of referral and a lower number of referrals to PC. 3) Increased self-efficacy with end-of-life discussions will be associated with a higher history of referral and a higher number of referrals to PC. 4) Perceived facilitators to referral, perceived barriers to referral, and self–efficacy with end-of-life discussions will contribute to a significant variance in the history of referral to PC. 5) Perceived facilitators to referral, perceived barriers to referral, and self–efficacy with end-of-life discussions will contribute to a significant variance in the number of referrals to PC. Significance: Previous studies of referring patients to PC within the hospital setting care have focused on physician practices. Identifying factors that influence NPs referring hospitalized patients to PC is essential to ensure that patients have access to these important services. This study incorporates the SNRS mission of advancing nursing research through the dissemination of research findings and the promotion of nursing science. Methods: A cross-sectional, predictive correlational study was conducted. History of referral to PC, facilitators to referring to PC, barriers to referring to PC, self-efficacy in end-of-life discussions, and referral to PC were measured using the PC referral case study survey, facilitators and barriers to PC referral survey, and self-assessment with end-of-life discussions survey. Data were analyzed descriptively and with Pearson’s Correlation, Spearman’s Rho, point-biserial correlation, multiple regression, logistic regression, Chi-Square test, and the Mann-Whitney U test. Results: Only one facilitator (PC team being helpful with establishing goals of care) was significantly associated with referral to PC. Three variables were statistically significant in relation to the history of referring to PC: “Inclined to refer: PC can help decrease the length of stay in hospital”, “Most inclined to refer: Patients with serious illnesses and/or poor prognoses”, and “Giving bad news to a patient or family member”. No predictor variables contributed a significant variance in the number of referrals to PC for all three case studies. There were no statistically significant results showing a relationship between the history of referral and referral to PC. All five hypotheses were partially supported. Discussion: Findings from this study emphasize the need for further research on NPs who work in hospital settings and what factors influence their behaviors of referring to PC. Since there is an increase in NPs practicing within hospital settings, future studies should use a larger sample size and incorporate hospital medicine NPs and other types of NPs that work in hospitals.

Keywords: palliative care, nurse practitioners, hospital medicine, referral

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Authors: Hassnen M. Jafer, Khalid S. Hashim, W. Atherton, Ali W. Alattabi

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This study investigates the effect of two important parameters (length of curing period and percentage of the added binder) on the strength of soil treated with OPC. An intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic content was used in this study. This soft soil was treated with different percentages of a commercially available cement type 32.5-N. laboratory experiments were carried out on the soil treated with 0, 1.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12% OPC by the dry weight to determine the effect of OPC on the compaction parameters, consistency limits, and the compressive strength. Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) test was carried out on cement-treated specimens after exposing them to different curing periods (1, 3, 7, 14, 28, and 90 days). The results of UCS test were used to develop a non-linear multi-regression model to find the relationship between the predicted and the measured maximum compressive strength of the treated soil (qu). The results indicated that there was a significant improvement in the index of plasticity (IP) by treating with OPC; IP was decreased from 20.2 to 14.1 by using 12% of OPC; this percentage was enough to increase the UCS of the treated soil up to 1362 kPa after 90 days of curing. With respect to the statistical model of the predicted qu, the results showed that the regression coefficients (R2) was equal to 0.8534 which indicates a good reproducibility for the constructed model.

Keywords: cement admixtures, soft soil stabilisation, geotechnical parameters, multi-regression model

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Authors: Chisomo Patrick Kumbuyo, Katsuyuki Shimizu, Hiroshi Yasuda, Yoshinobu Kitamura

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This study deals with a way of predicting Malawi rainfall from global sea surface temperature (SST) using a simple multiple regression model. Monthly rainfall data from nine stations in Malawi grouped into two zones on the basis of inter-station rainfall correlations were used in the study. Zone 1 consisted of Karonga and Nkhatabay stations, located in northern Malawi; and Zone 2 consisted of Bolero, located in northern Malawi; Kasungu, Dedza, Salima, located in central Malawi; Mangochi, Makoka and Ngabu stations located in southern Malawi. Links between Malawi rainfall and SST based on statistical correlations were evaluated and significant results selected as predictors for the regression models. The predictors for Zone 1 model were identified from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans while those for Zone 2 were identified from the Pacific Ocean. The correlation between the fit of predicted and observed rainfall values of the models were satisfactory with r=0.81 and 0.54 for Zone 1 and 2 respectively (significant at less than 99.99%). The results of the models are in agreement with other findings that suggest that SST anomalies in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans have an influence on the rainfall patterns of Southern Africa.

Keywords: Malawi rainfall, forecast model, predictors, SST

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Authors: Martin Popescu D. Dana Maria

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The aims of this research are to broaden the study on the relationship between emotional intelligence and counterproductive work behavior (CWB). The study sample consisted in 441 Romanian employees from companies all over the country. Data has been collected through web surveys and processed with SPSS. The results indicated an average correlation between the two constructs and their sub variables, employees with a high level of emotional intelligence tend to be less aggressive. In addition, labeling was considered an individual difference which has the power to influence the level of employee aggression. A regression model was used to underline the importance of emotional intelligence together with labeling as predictors of CWB. Results have shown that this regression model enforces the assumption that labeling and emotional intelligence, taken together, predict CWB. Employees, who label themselves as victims and have a low degree of emotional intelligence, have a higher level of CWB.

Keywords: aggression, CWB, emotional intelligence, labeling

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Authors: Majeda Hammoud

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Background: Anemia during pregnancy increases the risk of delivery by cesarean section, low birth weight, preterm birth, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, and maternal mortality. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence of anemia in pregnant women and its associated factors in the Kuwait birth cohort study. Methods: The Kuwait birth cohort (N=1108) was a prospective cohort study in which pregnant women were recruited in the third trimester. Data were collected through personal interviews with mothers who attend antenatal care visits, including data on socio-economic status and lifestyle factors. Blood samples were taken after the recruitment to measure multiple laboratory indicators. Clinical data were extracted from the medical records by a clinician including data on comorbidities. Anemia was defined as having Hemoglobin (Hb) <110 g/L with further classification as mild (100-109 g/L), moderate (70-99 g/L), or severe (<70 g/L). Predictors of anemia were classified as underlying or direct factors, and logistic regression was used to investigate their association with anemia. Results: The mean Hb level in the study group was 115.21 g/L (95%CI: 114.56- 115.87 g/L), with significant differences between age groups (p=0.034). The prevalence of anemia was 28.16% (95%CI: 25.53-30.91%), with no significant difference by age group (p=0.164). Of all 1108 pregnant women, 8.75% had moderate anemia, and 19.40% had mild anemia, but no pregnant women had severe anemia. In multivariable analysis, getting pregnant while using contraception, adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.73(95%CI:1.01-2.96); p=0.046 and current use of supplements, AOR 0.50 (95%CI: 0.26-0.95); p=0.035 were significantly associated with anemia (underlying factors). From the direct factors group, only iron and ferritin levels were significantly associated with anemia (P<0.001). Conclusion: Although the severe form of anemia is low among pregnant women in Kuwait, mild and moderate anemia remains a significant health problem despite free access to antenatal care.

Keywords: anemia, pregnancy, hemoglobin, ferritin

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Authors: Theresia F. Mrema, Innocent Semali

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Food insecurity to pregnant women seriously impedes efforts to reduce maternal mortality in resource poor countries. This study was carried out to assess determinants food insecurity among pregnant women in urban areas. A cross sectional study design was used to collect data for the period of two weeks. A structured questionnaire with both closed and open ended questions was used to interview a total of 225 randomly selected pregnant women who attend the three randomly selected antenatal care clinics in Temeke Municipal council. The food insecurity was measured using a modified version of the USDA’s core food security module which consists of 15questions. Logistic regression analysis was used to obtain strength of association between dependent and independent variables. Among 225 pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) interviewed 55.1% were food insecure. Food insecurity declined with increasing household wealth, it was also significantly low among those with less than three children compared with having more. Low level of food insecurity was associated with having Secondary education (Adjusted OR=0.24; 95%CI, 0.12–0.48), College Education (OR=0.156; 95%CI, 0.05-0.46), paid employment (OR=0.322; 95%CI, 0.11-0.96) and high income (OR=0.031; 95%CI, 0.01–0.07). Also, having head of the household with secondary education (OR=0.51; 95%CI, 0.07-0.32) college education (OR=0.04; 95%CI, 0.01-0.13) and paid employment (OR=0.225; 95%CI, 0.12-0.42). Food insecurity is a significant problem among pregnant women in Temeke Municipal which might significantly affect health of the pregnant woman and foetus due to higher maternal malnutrition which increases risk of miscarriage, maternal and infant mortality, and poor pregnancy outcomes. The study suggests a multi-sectoral approach in order to address this problem.

Keywords: food security, nutrition, pregnant women, urban settings

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Authors: Engida Yisma, Berhanu Dessalegn, Ayalew Astatkie, Nebreed Fesseha

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Background: The use of the partograph is a well-known best practice for quality monitoring of labour and subsequent prevention of obstructed and prolonged labour. However, a number of cases of obstructed labour do happen in health facilities due to poor quality of intrapartum care. Methods: A cross-sectional quantitative study assessed knowledge and utilization of partograph among obstetric care givers in public health institutions of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia using a structured interviewer administered questionnaire. The collected data was analyzed using SPSS version 16.0. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with knowledge and use of partograph among obstetric care givers. Results: Knowledge about the partograph was fair: 189 (96.6%) of all the respondents correctly mentioned at least one component of the partograph, 104 (53.3%) correctly explained the function of alert line and 161 (82.6%) correctly explained the function of action line. The study showed that 112 (57.3%) of the obstetric care givers at public health institutions reportedly utilized partograph to monitor mothers in labour. The utilization of the partograph was significantly higher among obstetric care givers working in health centres (67.9%) compared to those working in hospitals (34.4%) [Adjusted OR = 3.63(95%CI: 1.81, 7.28)]. Conclusions: A significant percentage of obstetric care givers had fair knowledge of the partograph and why it is necessary to use it in the management of labour and over half of obstetric care givers reported use of the partograph to monitor mothers in labour. Pre-service and on-job training of obstetric care givers on the use of the partograph should be given emphasis. Mandatory health facility policy is also recommended to ensure safety of women in labour in public health facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Keywords: partograph, knowledge, utilization, obstetric care givers, public health institutions

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Khadeeja Munawar, Shamsul Haque

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The claim that traumatic events influence the recalled memories and mental health has received mixed empirical support. This study examines the memories of a sample drawn from Pakistan, a country that has witnessed many life-changing socio-political events, wars, and natural disasters in 72 years of its history. A sample of 210 senior citizens (Mage = 64.35, SD = 6.33) was recruited from Pakistan. The aim was to investigate if participants retrieved more memories related to past traumatic events using a word-cueing technique. Each participant reported ten memories to ten neutral cue words. The results revealed that past traumatic events were not adversely affecting the memories and mental health of participants. When memories were plotted with respect to the ages at which the events happened, a pronounced bump at 11-20 years of age was seen. Memories within as well as outside of the bump were mostly positive. The multilevel logistic regression modelling showed that the memories recalled were personally important and played a role in enhancing resilience. The findings revealed that despite facing an array of ethnic, religious, political, economic, and social conflicts, the participants were resilient, recalled predominantly positive memories, and had intact mental health. The findings have clinical implications in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT). The patients can be made aware of their negative emotions, troublesome/traumatic memories, and the distorted thinking patterns and their memories can be restructured. The findings can also be used to teach Memory Specificity Training (MEST) by psycho-educating the patients around changes in memory functioning and enhancing the recall of memories, which are more specific, vivid, and filled with sensory details.

Keywords: cognitive behavioral therapy, memories, mental health, resilience, trauma

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Authors: Rakesh Mishra

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India’s Demography has always amazed the world because of its unprecedented outcomes in the presence of multifaceted socioeconomic and geographical characteristics. Being the first one to implement family panning in 1952, it occupies 2nd largest population of the world, with some of its state like Uttar Pradesh contributing 5th largest population to the world population surpassing Brazil. Being the one with higher in number it is more prone to the demographic disparity persisting into its territories brought upon by the inequalities in availability, accessibility and attainability of socioeconomic and various other resources. Fifth goal of Millennium Development Goal emphasis to improve maternal and child health across the world as Children’s development is very important for the overall development of society and the best way to develop national human resources is to take care of children. The target is to reduce the infant deaths by three quarters between 1990 and 2015. Child health status depends on the care and delivery by trained personnel, particularly through institutional facilities which is further associated with the status of the mother. However, delivery in institutional facilities and delivery by skilled personnel are rising slowly in India. The main objective of the present study is to measure the child health status on based on the educational and occupational background of the women in India. Study indicates that women education plays a very crucial role in deciding the health of the new born care and access to family planning, but the women autonomy indicates to have mixed results in different states of India. It is observed that rural women are 1.61 times more likely to exclusive breastfed their children compared to urban women. With respect to Hindu category, women belonging to other religious community were 21 percent less likely to exclusive breastfed their child. Taking scheduled caste as reference category, the odds of exclusive breastfeeding is found to be decreasing in comparison to other castes, and it is found to be significant among general category. Women of high education status have higher odds of using family planning methods in most of the southern states of India. By and large, girls and boys are about equally undernourished. Under nutrition is generally lower for first births than for subsequent births and consistently increases with increasing birth order for all measures of nutritional status. It is to be noted that at age 12-23 months, when many children are being weaned from breast milk, 30 percent of children are severely stunted and around 21 percent are severely underweight. So, this paper presents the evidence on the patterns of prevailing child health status in India and its states with reference to the mother socioeconomics and biological characteristics and examines trends in these, and discusses plausible explanations.

Keywords: immunization, exclusive breastfeeding, under five mortality, binary logistic regression, ordinal regression and life table

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Authors: Vadim A. Kuznetsov, Anna M. Soldatova, Tatyana N. Enina, Elena A. Gorbatenko, Dmitrii V. Krinochkin

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The aim of the study was to evaluate potential parameters related with super-response to CRT. Methods: 60 CRT patients (mean age 54.3 ± 9.8 years; 80% men) with congestive heart failure (CHF) II-IV NYHA functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction < 35% were enrolled. At baseline, 1 month, 3 months and each 6 months after implantation clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters, NT-proBNP level were evaluated. According to the best decrease of left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) (mean follow-up period 33.7 ± 15.1 months) patients were classified as super-responders (SR) (n=28; reduction in LVESV ≥ 30%) and non-SR (n=32; reduction in LVESV < 30%). Results: At baseline groups differed in age (58.1 ± 5.8 years in SR vs 50.8 ± 11.4 years in non-SR; p=0.003), gender (female gender 32.1% vs 9.4% respectively; p=0.028), width of QRS complex (157.6 ± 40.6 ms in SR vs 137.6 ± 33.9 ms in non-SR; p=0.044). Percentage of LBBB was equal between groups (75% in SR vs 59.4% in non-SR; p=0.274). All parameters of mechanical dyssynchrony were higher in SR, but only difference in left ventricular pre-ejection period (LVPEP) was statistically significant (153.0 ± 35.9 ms vs. 129.3 ± 28.7 ms p=0.032). NT-proBNP level was lower in SR (1581 ± 1369 pg/ml vs 3024 ± 2431 pg/ml; p=0.006). The survival rates were 100% in SR and 90.6% in non-SR (log-rank test P=0.002). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that LVPEP (HR 1.024; 95% CI 1.004–1.044; P = 0.017), baseline NT-proBNP level (HR 0.628; 95% CI 0.414–0.953; P=0.029) and age at baseline (HR 1.094; 95% CI 1.009-1.168; P=0.30) were independent predictors for CRT super-response. ROC curve analysis demonstrated sensitivity 71.9% and specificity 82.1% (AUC=0.827; p < 0.001) of this model in prediction of super-response to CRT. Conclusion: Super-response to CRT is associated with better survival in long-term period. Presence of LBBB was not associated with super-response. LVPEP, NT-proBNP level, and age at baseline can be used as independent predictors of CRT super-response.

Keywords: cardiac resynchronisation therapy, superresponse, congestive heart failure, left bundle branch block

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Authors: Churamani Pokhrel, C. B. Jha, S. R. Niraula, P. R. Pokharel

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Human identification is one of the most challenging subjects that man has confronted. The determination of adult sex and stature are two of the four key factors (sex, stature, age, and race) in identification of an individual. Craniofacial and odontometric parameters are important tools for forensic anthropologists when it is not possible to apply advanced techniques for identification purposes. The present study provides anthropometric correlation of the parameters with stature and gender and also devises regression formulae for reconstruction of stature. A total of 312 Nepalese students with equal distribution of sex i.e., 156 male and 156 female students of age 18-35 years were taken for the study. Total of 10 parameters were measured (age, sex, stature, head circumference, head length, head breadth, facial height, bi-zygomatic width, mesio-distal canine width and inter-canine distance of both maxilla and mandible). Co-relation and regression analysis was done to find the association between the parameters. All parameters were found to be greater in males than females and each was found to be statistically significant. Out of total 312 samples, the best regressor for the determination of stature was head circumference and mandibular inter-canine width and that for gender was head circumference and right mandibular teeth. The accuracy of prediction was 83%. Regression equations and analysis generated from craniofacial and odontometric parameters can be a supplementary approach for the estimation of stature and gender when extremities are not available.

Keywords: craniofacial, gender, odontometric, stature

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Authors: Ruttana Phetsitong, Patama Vapattanawong, Malee Sunpuwan, Marc Voelker

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The majority of care for older people at home in Thai society falls upon caregivers resulting in caregiver’s mental health problem. Beyond individual characteristics, household factors might have a profound effect on the caregiver’s mental health. But reliable data capturing this at the household level have been limited to date. The objectives of the present study were to explore the levels of Thai caregiver’s mental health and to investigate the factors affecting the mental health at household level. Data were obtained from the 2011 National Survey of Thai Older Persons conducted by the National Statistical Office of Thailand. Caregiver’s mental health was measured by using the 15- items-short version of the Thai Mental Health Indicator (TMHI-15) developed by the Department of Mental Health, the Ministry of Public Health. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to explore the impact of potential factors on caregiver’s mental health. The THMI-15 produced an overall average caregiver mental health score of 30.9 out of 45 (SD 5.3). The score can be categorized into good (34.02-45), fair (27.01-34), and poor (0-27). Duration of care for older people, household wealth, and functional dependency of the older people significantly predicted total caregiver’s mental health. Household economic factor was key in predicting better mental health. Compared to those poorest households, the adjusted effect of the fifth quintile household wealth was high (OR=2.34; 95%CI=1.47-3.73). The findings of this study provide a fuller picture to a better understanding of the level and factors that cause the mental health of Thai caregivers. Health care providers and policymakers should consider these factors when designing interventions aimed at alleviating caregiver’s psychological burden when provided care for older people at home.

Keywords: caregiver’s mental health, household, older people, Thailand

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Authors: A. Dinelka Panagoda, Bathiya Bandara, Chamod Wijetunga, Chathura Malinda, Lakmal Rupasinghe, Chethana Liyanapathirana

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This research takes us forward with the concepts of Federated Learning and Software-Defined Networking (SDN) to introduce an efficient malware detection technique and provide a mitigation mechanism to give birth to a resilient and automated healthcare sector network system by also adding the feature of extended privacy preservation. Due to the daily transformation of new malware attacks on hospital Integrated Clinical Environment (ICEs), the healthcare industry is at an undefinable peak of never knowing its continuity direction. The state of blindness by the array of indispensable opportunities that new medical device inventions and their connected coordination offer daily, a factor that should be focused driven is not yet entirely understood by most healthcare operators and patients. This solution has the involvement of four clients in the form of hospital networks to build up the federated learning experimentation architectural structure with different geographical participation to reach the most reasonable accuracy rate with privacy preservation. While the logistic regression with cross-entropy conveys the detection, SDN comes in handy in the second half of the research to stack up the initial development phases of the system with malware mitigation based on policy implementation. The overall evaluation sums up with a system that proves the accuracy with the added privacy. It is no longer needed to continue with traditional centralized systems that offer almost everything but not privacy.

Keywords: software-defined network, federated learning, privacy, integrated clinical environment, decentralized learning, malware detection, malware mitigation

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Authors: Watcharapong Yaowarat, Thanee Kaewthummanukul, Waruntorn Jongrungrotsakul

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Noise-induced hearing loss, the most significant occupational and safety problem among the working population, can be effectively prevented through hearing protection devices (HPDs) use. This study aimed to examine whether the following factors, perceived benefits, perceived barriers, perceived self-efficacy, and interpersonal and situational influences about using hearing protection could predict HPD use among 132 qualified workers in production lines at Kaolin Mineral Dressing factories, Uttaradit and Lampang provinces. Data collection was undertaken from August to September 2020 according to the interview form developed by Yaruang et al. (2010), which was assured by a panel of experts and its reliability value was at an acceptable level. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression analysis. The results revealed that only the situational factor of using hearing protection could predict HPD use, which accounted for 21.80 percent of the total variance for HPD use. It was also found that the study sample who had a score for the situational factors on using hearing protection greater than or equal to the median was 4.16 times more likely to use HPDs than those who had lower median scores. (OR = 4.16, p < .05). The results, thus, indicate that organization policies addressing worker health along with enhancing a supportive environment for HPD use, in particular, the provision of various HPDs, are of great importance. Therefore, occupational health nurses and related health teams should enhance workers’ use of HPDs effectively through knowledge dissemination by adopting strategies appropriate to the workplace context leading to an achievement of worker health policy focusing on work safety.

Keywords: predicting factors, hearing protection device, factors predicting hearing protection device use, kaolin mineral dressing factories

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Authors: Jui-Chen Huang, Shou-Hsiung Cheng

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This study examined their willingness to use telecare for people who have had experience falling in the last three months in Taiwan. This study adopted convenience sampling and a structural questionnaire to collect data. It was based on the definition and the constructs related to the Health Belief Model (HBM). HBM is comprised of seven constructs: perceived benefits (PBs), perceived disease threat (PDT), perceived barriers of taking action (PBTA), external cues to action (ECUE), internal cues to action (ICUE), attitude toward using (ATT), and behavioral intention to use (BI). This study adopted Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) to put forward an effective method. It shows the dependence of ATT on PB, PDT, PBTA, ECUE, and ICUE. The training and testing data RMSE (root mean square error) are 0.028 and 0.166 in the FNN, respectively. The training and testing data RMSE are 0.828 and 0.578 in the regression model, respectively. On the other hand, as to the dependence of ATT on BI, as presented in the FNN, the training and testing data RMSE are 0.050 and 0.109, respectively. The training and testing data RMSE are 0.529 and 0.571 in the regression model, respectively. The results show that the FNN method is better than the regression analysis. It is an effective and viable good way.

Keywords: fall, fuzzy neural network, health belief model, telecare, willingness

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Authors: Gaironeesa Hendricks, Shazly Savahl, Maria Florence

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The aim of the study is to determine whether peer pressure and leisure boredom influence substance use among adolescents in low-income communities in Cape Town. Non-probability sampling was used to select 296 adolescents between the ages of 16–18 from schools located in two low-income communities. The measurement tools included the Drug Use Disorders Identification Test, the Resistance to Peer Influence and Leisure Boredom Scales. Multiple regression revealed that the combined influence of peer pressure and leisure boredom predicted substance use, while peer pressure emerged as a stronger predictor than leisure boredom on substance use among adolescents.

Keywords: substance use, peer pressure, leisure boredom, adolescents, multiple regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 599