Search results for: Malawi rainfall

Authors: Chisomo Patrick Kumbuyo, Katsuyuki Shimizu, Hiroshi Yasuda, Yoshinobu Kitamura

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This study deals with a way of predicting Malawi rainfall from global sea surface temperature (SST) using a simple multiple regression model. Monthly rainfall data from nine stations in Malawi grouped into two zones on the basis of inter-station rainfall correlations were used in the study. Zone 1 consisted of Karonga and Nkhatabay stations, located in northern Malawi; and Zone 2 consisted of Bolero, located in northern Malawi; Kasungu, Dedza, Salima, located in central Malawi; Mangochi, Makoka and Ngabu stations located in southern Malawi. Links between Malawi rainfall and SST based on statistical correlations were evaluated and significant results selected as predictors for the regression models. The predictors for Zone 1 model were identified from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans while those for Zone 2 were identified from the Pacific Ocean. The correlation between the fit of predicted and observed rainfall values of the models were satisfactory with r=0.81 and 0.54 for Zone 1 and 2 respectively (significant at less than 99.99%). The results of the models are in agreement with other findings that suggest that SST anomalies in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans have an influence on the rainfall patterns of Southern Africa.

Keywords: Malawi rainfall, forecast model, predictors, SST

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Authors: Vincent Chumbu

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This study examines the impact of decentralization on development and government in Malawi. Decentralization has been a key element in Malawi's attempts to alter its political system since the early 1990s. This study uses both qualitative and quantitative methods to look into how well devolution promotes local development, improves service delivery, and supports effective governance. The findings suggest that while devolution has resulted in particular improvements in local government or service provision, significant challenges persist. Limited financial decentralization, inadequate local competency, and governmental meddling in local decision-making processes are some of these difficulties. The paper concludes with recommendations for strengthening Malawi's decentralization initiatives to better promote good governance and sustainable development.

Keywords: governance, development, malawi, local government

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Authors: Peter Mayeso Jiyajiya

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The question of language and identity in the post-colonial Africa has resulted in the policy inconsistencies and perceived wayward practices regarding language use. The need to reside and situate oneself in the global village has alienated local identities, with most countries, Malawi in particular promoting exogenous colonial language(s) at the expense of local languages that mirror people’s identities. This has brought a mismatch between language policy and implementation. The resultant effect has been alienation of the ‘Self’ from one’s indigenous identity and creation of the ‘other’ in the foreign identity, and the undermining of the linguistic rights of the minority language speakers. The need to negotiate the identity and modernity in the global village is thus imperative. The paper attempts to review the language situation in Malawi in light of the growing desire for international integration vis-à-vis the cultivation and maintenance of national ethnolinguistic identity. It further highlights the dilemma that the promotion of vernacular languages is facing in the modern Malawi. It also examines the Malawi language policy and its implementation. The failures, challenges, and inconsistencies are discussed in order to negotiate the position of minority languages in the modern Malawi. The paper notes that identity construction and maintenance within the framework of language policy in Malawi is undermined by attitudinal factors towards one’s culture and language. The paper then provides suggestions of negotiating identity in Malawi within the framework of globalisation through the placement of premiums on the minority languages.

Keywords: identity, language policy, minority languages, vernacular language

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Authors: Lameck Zetu Khonje, Mulala Danny Simatele

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Malawi’s economy is agriculture based. Recently the government earmarked the tourism sector as an important economic sector which could support the agriculture sector to bring about sustainable economic development and help socioeconomic wellbeing of the local people. Greening of the hotel industry is one of the proven ideal ways of creating a sustainable tourism industry which brings about sustainable economic development in a country like Malawi. This study uses qualitative methodology to examine the efficacy of the governance and policing tools that Malawi uses to guide the development and general practices of the hotel sector to ascertain whether these tools are for greening or not. Grounded Theory method is used whereby semi-structured interviews and field visits were conducted to collect data for the study. The results of the study show that there are loopholes in the governance system in Malawi. The results also reveal gaps within the policing tools such that the hotel industry is not properly guided on green issues. Furthermore, the results show that there is a lack of collaboration for the enforcement of the green practices in the hotel industry. It is also revealed that there is a lack of knowledge of green issues within the governance structures. Awareness campaigns and capacity building would improve greening of the hotel industry in Malawi.

Keywords: governance, greening, Grounded Theory, Malawi

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Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: S. Ravindran, Y.Liu, I. Gratchev, D.Jeng

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Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are more common in the northern New South Wales (NSW), Australia. From 2009 to 2017, around 105 rainfall-induced landslides occurred along the road corridors and caused temporary road closures in the northern NSW. Rainfall causing shallow landslides has different distributions of rainfall varying from uniform, normal, decreasing to increasing rainfall intensity. The duration of rainfall varied from one day to 18 days according to historical data. The objective of this research is to analyse slope instability of some of the sites in the northern NSW by varying cumulative rainfall using SLOPE/W and SEEP/W and compare with field data of rainfall causing shallow landslides. The rainfall data and topographical data from public authorities and soil data obtained from laboratory tests will be used for this modelling. There is a likelihood of shallow landslides if the cumulative rainfall is between 100 mm to 400 mm in accordance with field data.

Keywords: landslides, modelling, rainfall, suction

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Authors: Ulemu Maseko

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This research is a critical assessment of the empowerment of Muslim women in Malawi. The study assessed, evaluated, and analyzed how the Muslim Women Organization (MWO) has influenced gender equality and women empowerment in different Islamic communities. In analyzing the data collected for this research, the study has examined the following topics: The way MWO has interpreted Islamic women’s rights, the various stereotypes Muslim women face, and lastly, the factors contributing to the limitation of Muslim women’s rights in Malawi. Towards this analysis, the study revealed that women groups such as MWO are crucial in understanding Muslim women and the different dynamics related to their empowerment. Therefore, it is necessary to understand how Muslim women comprehend various Islamic sources and how they link religion to their position and participation in society. To achieve the scope of this study, relevant works of literature that best described Islam in Malawi, Muslim women groups, and women empowerment in Malawi were used, coupled with a qualitative research approach that involved interviews, focus group discussions, and participant observations. In addition, phenomenology and feminist theoretical frameworks were used to examine and analyze the findings. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that MWO is a significant body for gender equality and women empowerment initiatives in the Malawian Islamic community. Since its establishment in 1985 till the time of this study, MWO has been an imperative driving force towards an Islamic women’s discourse that uses Islamic teachings, faith, policies, and practices to justify the role of the Muslim woman in society. This has been enlightening for their platform and has given them more confidence to justify the empowerment of Muslim women and support different initiatives towards social change.

Keywords: Islam, women, empowerment, Malawi

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Authors: Kamal Kumar Tanti, Nayan Moni Saikia, Markynti Swer

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This study aims to investigate and analyse the trends and variability of rainfall in Shillong and its nearby areas, located in Meghalaya hills of North-East India; which is geographically a neighbouring area to the wettest places of the Earth, i.e., Cherrapunji and Mawsynram. The analysis of variability and trends to annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall was carried out, using the data collected from the IMD station at Shillong; thereby attempting to highlight whether rainfall in Shillong area has been increasing or decreasing over the years. Rainfall variability coefficient is utilized to compare the current rainfall trend of the area with its past rainfall trends. The present study also aims to analyse the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the region. These studies will help us to establish a correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study area.

Keywords: trends and variability of rainfall, annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall, rainfall variability coefficient, extreme rainfall events, climate change, Shillong, Cherrapunji, Mawsynram

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Authors: Prachi Desai, Ankita Gandhi, Mitali Acharya

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Rainfall forecast is mainly used for predictions of rainfall in a specified area and determining their future rainfall conditions. Rainfall is always a global issue as it affects all major aspects of one's life. Agricultural, fisheries, forestry, tourism industry and other industries are widely affected by these conditions. The studies have resulted in insufficient availability of water resources and an increase in water demand in the near future. We already have a new forecast system that uses the deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to forecast monthly rainfall and climate changes. We have also compared CNN against Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Machine Learning techniques that are used in rainfall predictions include ARIMA Model, ANN, LR, SVM etc. The dataset on which we are experimenting is gathered online over the year 1901 to 20118. Test results have suggested more realistic improvements than conventional rainfall forecasts.

Keywords: ANN, CNN, supervised learning, machine learning, deep learning

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Authors: Sarisa Pinkham, Kanyarat Bussaban

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The research aims to approximate the amount of daily rainfall by using a pixel value data approach. The daily rainfall maps from the Thailand Meteorological Department in period of time from January to December 2013 were the data used in this study. The results showed that this approach can approximate the amount of daily rainfall with RMSE=3.343.

Keywords: daily rainfall, image processing, approximation, pixel value data

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Authors: Aravind Mohan Krishnan

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This paper identifies a research gap in the literature on tourism entrepreneurship in Malawi, Africa, and investigates how entrepreneurs from the Malawian tourism sector discover and exploit business opportunities. In particular, the importance of prior experience and business networks in the opportunity development process is debated. Another area of empirical research examined here is the opportunity recognition-venture creation sequence. While Malawi presents fruitful business opportunities, exploiting these opportunities into fully realized business ideas is a real challenge due to the country’s difficult business environment and poor promotional and marketing efforts. The study concludes by calling for further research in Sub-Saharan Africa in order to develop our understanding of entrepreneurship in this (African) context.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, Malawi, opportunities, tourism

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Authors: Dereje Habte, Jane Namasasu

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Background: The aim of the analysis was to assess the practice of family planning (FP) among HIV-infected women and the influence of women’s awareness of HIV-positive status in the practice of FP. Methods: The analysis was made among 489 non-pregnant, sexually active, fecund women living with HIV. Result: Of the 489 confirmed HIV positive women, 184 (37.6%) reported that they knew they are HIV positive. The number of women with current use and unmet need of any family planning method were found to be 251 (51.2%) and 107 (21.9%) respectively. Women’s knowledge of HIV-positive status (AOR: 2.32(1.54,3.50)), secondary and above education (AOR: 2.36(1.16,4.78)), presence of 3-4 (AOR: 2.60(1.08,6.28)) and more than four alive children (AOR: 3.03(1.18,7.82)) were significantly associated with current use of family planning. Conclusion: Women’s awareness of HIV-positive status was found to significantly predict family planning practice among women living with HIV.

Keywords: family planning, HIV, Malawi, women

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Authors: Peter Mayeso Jiyajiya

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This paper discusses how the teaching of English as a foreign language in Malawi can enhance intercultural communication competence in a multicultural society. It argues that incorporation of intercultural communication in the teaching of English as a foreign language would improve cultural awareness in communication in the multicultural Malawi. The teaching of English in Malawi is geared towards producing students who would communicate in the global world. This entails the use of proper pedagogical approaches and instructional materials that prepare the students toward intercultural awareness. In view of this, the language teachers were interviewed in order to determine their instructional approaches to intercultural communication. Instructional materials were further evaluated to assess how interculturality is incorporated. The study found out that teachers face perceptual and technical challenges that hinder them from exercising creativity to incorporate interculturality in their lessons. This is also compounded by lack of clear direction in the teaching materials on cultural elements. The paper, therefore, suggests a holistic approach to the teaching of English language in Malawian school in which the diversity of culture in classrooms must be considered an opportunity for addressing students’ cultural needs that may be lacking in the instructional materials.

Keywords: cultural awareness, grammar, foreign language, intercultural communication, language teaching

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Authors: Kazım Kaba, Erdem Erdi, M. Akif Erdoğan, H. Mustafa Kandırmaz

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Rainfall is crucial data source for very different discipline such as agriculture, hydrology and climate. Therefore rain rate should be known well both spatial and temporal for any area. Rainfall is measured by using rain-gauge at meteorological ground stations traditionally for many years. At the present time, rainfall products are acquired from radar and satellite images with a temporal and spatial continuity. In this study, we investigated the accuracy of these rainfall data according to rain-gauge data. For this purpose, we used Adana-Hatay radar hourly total precipitation product (RN1) and Meteosat convective rainfall rate (CRR) product over Seyhan plain. We calculated daily rainfall values from RN1 and CRR hourly precipitation products. We used the data of rainy days of four stations located within range of the radar from October 2013 to November 2015. In the study, we examined two rainfall data over Seyhan plain and the correlation between the rain-gauge data and two raster rainfall data was observed lowly.

Keywords: meteosat, radar, rainfall, rain-gauge, Turkey

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Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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Authors: Save Kumwenda, Khumbo Kalulu, Kondwani Chidziwisano, Limbani Kalumbi, Vincent Doyle, Bagrey Ngwira

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Introduction: The Malawi Government in partnership with Non-Governmental Organizations adopted Community Led Total Sanitation (CLTS) in 2008 as an approach in sanitation and hygiene promotion with an aim of declaring Malawi Open Defeacation Free (ODF) by 2015. While there is a significant body of research into CLTS available in public domain, there is little research done on challenges faced in implementing CLTS in Malawi. Methods: A cross-sectional qualitative study was carried out in three districts of Ntcheu, Balaka, and Phalombe. Data was collected using Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key informant interviews (KII) and analysed manually. Results: In total, 96 people took part in FGDs and 9 people in KII. It was shown that choice of leaders after triggering was commonly done by chiefs, facilitators, and VHC without following CLTS principles as opposed to identifying individuals who showed leadership skills. Despite capacity building initiatives involving District Coordinating Teams, lack of resources to undertake follow-ups contributed to failure to sustain ODF in the community. It was also found that while most respondents appreciating the need for no subsidies, the elderly and those with disabilities felt the need for external support because do not have money for buying strong logs, slabs for durable toilet floor and also to hire people to build latrines for them. Conclusion: Effective implementation of CLTS requires comprehensive consideration of various issues that may affect its success.

Keywords: open defecation, community-led, sanitation, faecal matter, hygiene, Malawi

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Authors: Regina Kulugomba, Richard Blanchard, Harold Mapoma, Gregory Gamula, Stanley Mlatho

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Malawi is a country with low energy access with only 10% of people having access to electricity and 97% of people relying on charcoal and fuel wood. The over dependence on the traditional biomass has brought in a number of negative consequences on people’s health and the environment. To curb the situation, the Government of Malawi (GoM), through its national policy of 2018 and charcoal strategies of 2007, identified biogas as a suitable alternative energy source for cooking. The GoM intends to construct tubular digesters across the country and one of the most crucial factors is the availability of livestock manure. The study was conducted to assess biogas potential from livestock manure by using Quantum Geographic information system (QGIS) software. Potential methane was calculated based on the population of livestock, amount of manure produced per capita and year, total solids, biogas yield and availability coefficient. The results of the study estimated biogas potential at 687 million m3 /year. Districts identified with highest biogas potential were Lilongwe, Ntcheu, Mangochi, Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Chiradzulu and Mulanje. The information will help investors and the Government of Malawi to locate potential sites for biogas plants installation.

Keywords: biogas, energy, feedstock, livestock

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Authors: Davie Hope Moyo

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The environment is a combination of two things: resources and hazards. One of the hazards that is a result of environmental changes is the occurrence of flooding. Floods are one of the disasters that are highly feared by people because they have a huge impact on the human population and their environment. In recent years, flooding disasters in the Nsanje district are increasing in both frequency and magnitude. This study aims to understand the root causes of this phenomenon. To understand the causes of flooding, this study focused on the case of TA Ndamera in the Nsanje district, southern Malawi. People in the Nsanje district face disruption in their day-to-day life because of floods that affect their communities. When floods happen, people lose their property, land, livestock, and even lives. The study was carried out in order to have a better understanding of the root causes of floods. The findings of this study may help the government and other development agencies to put in place mitigation measures that will make Nsanje District resilient to the occurrence of future flood hazards. Data was collected from the area of TA Ndamera in order to assess the causes of flooding in the district. Interviews, transect walks, and researcher observation was done to appreciate the topography of the district and evaluate other factors that are making the people become vulnerable to the impacts of flooding in the district. It was found that flooding in the district is mainly caused by heavy rainfall in the upper shire, settlements along river banks, deforestation, and the topography of the district in general. The research study ends by providing recommendation strategies that need to be put in place to increase the resilience of the communities to future flood hazards. The research recommends the development of indigenous knowledge systems to alert people of incoming floods, construction of evacuation centers to ease pressure on schools, savings, and insurance schemes, construction of dykes, desilting rivers, and afforestation.

Keywords: disaster causes, mitigation, safety measures, Nsanje Malawi

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Authors: Chiang Wei, Hui-Chung Yeh, Yen-Chang Chen

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The objective of this study is to estimate the rainfall using the new generation Himawari-8 meteorological satellite with multi-band, high-bit format, and high spatiotemporal resolution, ground rainfall data at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed of Joushuei River Basin (443.6 square kilometers) in Central Taiwan. Accurate and fine-scale rainfall information is essential for rugged terrain with high local variation for early warning of flood, landslide, and debris flow disasters. 10-minute and 2 km pixel-based rainfall of Typhoon Megi of 2016 and meiyu on June 1-4 of 2017 were tested to demonstrate the new generation Himawari-8 meteorological satellite can capture rainfall variation in the rugged mountainous area both at fine-scale and watershed scale. The results provide the valuable rainfall information for early warning of future disasters.

Keywords: estimation, Himawari-8, rainfall, satellite imagery

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Authors: James Banda, Jupiter Simbeye, Essau Chisale, Geoffrey Kanyerere, Kings Kamtambe

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Improved solar tent dryers for processing small fish species were designed to reduce post-harvest fish losses and improve supply of quality fish products in the southern part of Lake Malawi under CultiAF project. A comparative analysis of the quality of Diplotaxodon (Ndunduma) from Lake Malawi processed in solar tent dryer and open sun drying was conducted using proximate analysis, microbial analysis and sensory evaluation. Proximates for solar tent dried fish and open sun dried fish in terms of proteins, fats, moisture and ash were 63.3±0.15% and 63.3±0.34%, 19.6±0.09% and 19.9±0.25%, 8.3±0.12% and 17.0±0.01%, and 15.6±0.61% and 21.9±0.91% respectively. Crude protein and crude fat showed non-significant differences (p = 0.05), while moisture and ash content were significantly different (p = 001). Open sun dried fish had significantly higher numbers of viable bacteria counts (5.2×10⁶ CFU) than solar tent dried fish (3.9×10² CFU). Most isolated bacteria from solar tent dried and open sun dried fish were 1.0×10¹ and 7.2×10³ for Total coliform, 0 and 4.5 × 10³ for Escherishia coli, 0 and 7.5 × 10³ for Salmonella, 0 and 5.7×10² for shigella, 4.0×10¹ and 6.1×10³ for Staphylococcus, 1.0×10¹ and 7.0×10² for vibrio. Qualitative evaluation of sensory properties showed higher acceptability of 3.8 for solar tent dried fish than 1.7 for open sun dried fish. It is concluded that promotion of solar tent drying in processing small fish species in Malawi would support small-scale fish processors to produce quality fish in terms of nutritive value, reduced microbial contamination, sensory acceptability and reduced moisture content.

Keywords: diplotaxodon, Malawi, open sun drying, solar tent drying

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Authors: Ibrahim Suliman Hanaish

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Disaggregation daily rainfall using stochastic models formulated based on multivariate approach (MuDRain) is discussed in this paper. Seven rain gauge stations are considered in this study for different distances from the referred station starting from 4 km to 160 km in Peninsular Malaysia. The hourly rainfall data used are covered the period from 1973 to 2008 and July and November months are considered as an example of dry and wet periods. The cross-correlation among the rain gauges is considered for the available hourly rainfall information at the neighboring stations or not. This paper discussed the applicability of the MuDRain model for disaggregation daily rainfall to hourly rainfall for both sources of cross-correlation. The goodness of fit of the model was based on the reproduction of fitting statistics like the means, variances, coefficients of skewness, lag zero cross-correlation of coefficients and the lag one auto correlation of coefficients. It is found the correlation coefficients based on extracted correlations that was based on daily are slightly higher than correlations based on available hourly rainfall especially for neighboring stations not more than 28 km. The results showed also the MuDRain model did not reproduce statistics very well. In addition, a bad reproduction of the actual hyetographs comparing to the synthetic hourly rainfall data. Mean while, it is showed a good fit between the distribution function of the historical and synthetic hourly rainfall. These discrepancies are unavoidable because of the lowest cross correlation of hourly rainfall. The overall performance indicated that the MuDRain model would not be appropriate choice for disaggregation daily rainfall.

Keywords: rainfall disaggregation, multivariate disaggregation rainfall model, correlation, stochastic model

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Authors: Ekrem Canli, Thomas Glade

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The precise prediction of rainfall in space and time is a key element to most landslide early warning systems. Unfortunately, the spatial variability of rainfall in many early warning applications is often disregarded. A common simplification is to use uniformly distributed rainfall to characterize aerial rainfall intensity. With spatially differentiated rainfall information, real-time comparison with rainfall thresholds or the implementation in process-based approaches might form the basis for improved landslide warnings. This study suggests an automated workflow from the hourly, web-based collection of rain gauge data to the generation of spatially differentiated rainfall predictions based on kriging. Because the application of kriging is usually a labor intensive task, a simplified and consequently automated variogram modeling procedure was applied to up-to-date rainfall data. The entire workflow was carried out purely with open source technology. Validation results, albeit promising, pointed out the challenges that are involved in pure distance based, automated geostatistical interpolation techniques for ever-changing environmental phenomena over short temporal and spatial extent.

Keywords: kriging, landslide early warning system, spatial rainfall prediction, variogram modelling, web scraping

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Authors: Davod Ahmadigheidari, Isabel Alvarez, Kate Sinclair, Marnie Davidson, Patrick Cortbaoui, Hugo Melgar-Quiñonez

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The burden of collecting water tends to disproportionately fall on women and girls in low-income countries. Specifically, women spend between one to eight hours per day fetching water for domestic use in Sub-Saharan Africa. While there has been research done on the global time burden for collecting water, it has been mainly focused on water quality parameters; leaving the relationship between water fetching and health outcomes understudied. There is little available evidence regarding the relationship between water fetching and maternal child care practices. The main objective of this study was to help fill the aforementioned gap in the literature. Data from two surveys in Ethiopia and Malawi conducted by CARE Canada in 2016-2017 were used. Descriptive statistics indicate that women were predominantly responsible for collecting water in both Ethiopia (87%) and Malawi (99%) respectively, with the majority spending more than 30 minutes per day on water collection. With regards to child care practices, in both countries, breastfeeding was relatively high (77% and 82%, respectively); and treatment for malnutrition was low (15% and 8%, respectively). However, the same consistency was not found for weighing; in Ethiopia only 16% took their children for weighting in contrast to 94% in Malawi. These three practices were summed to create one variable for regressions analyses. Unadjusted logistic regression findings showed that only in Ethiopia was time fetching water significantly associated with child care practices. Once adjusted for covariates, this relationship was no longer found to be significant. Adjusted logistic regressions also showed that the factors that did influence child care practices differed slightly between the two countries. In Ethiopia, a lack of access to community water supply (OR= 0.668; P=0.010), poor attitudes towards gender equality (OR= 0.608; P=0.001), no access to land and (OR=0.603; P=0.000), significantly decreased a women’s odd of using positive childcare practices. Notably, being young women between 15-24 years (OR=2.308; P=0.017), and 25-29 (OR=2.065; P=0.028) increased probability of using positive childcare practices. Whereas in Malawi, higher maternal age, low decision-making power, significantly decreased a women’s odd of using positive childcare practices. In conclusion, this study found that even though amount of time spent by women fetching water makes a difference for childcare practices, it is not significantly related to women’s child care practices when controlling the covariates. Importantly, women’s age contributes to child care practices in Ethiopia and Malawi.

Keywords: time fetching water, community water supply, women’s child care practices, Ethiopia, Malawi

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Authors: Bright E. Owusu, Nittaya McNeil

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Rainfall is one of the most essential quantities in meteorology and hydrology. It has important impacts on people’s daily life and excess or inadequate of it could bring tremendous losses in economy and cause fatalities. Population increase around the globe tends to have a corresponding increase in settlement and industrialization. Some countries are affected by flood and drought occasionally due to climate change, which disrupt most of the daily activities. Knowledge of trends in spatial and temporal rainfall variability and their physical explanations would be beneficial in climate change assessment and to determine erosivity. This study describes the spatial-temporal variability of daily rainfall in Australia and their corresponding long-term trend during 1950-2013. The spatial patterns were investigated by using exploratory factor analysis and the long term trend in rainfall time series were determined by linear regression, Mann-Kendall rank statistics and the Sen’s slope test. The exploratory factor analysis explained most of the variations in the data and grouped Australia into eight distinct rainfall regions with different rainfall patterns. Significant increasing trends in annual rainfall were observed in the northern regions of Australia. However, the northeastern part was the wettest of all the eight rainfall regions.

Keywords: climate change, explanatory factor analysis, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test, rainfall.

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Authors: Marcia Teresa Gildo

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The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is responsible to provide international protection and humanitarian assistance to refugees and to seek permanent solutions to their situation. To fulfil this mandate, the agency works in collaboration with its partners and governments. This paper aims to analyse the agency's actions to protect and provide assistance to Mozambican refugees in Malawi. Since July 2015, approximately 12.000 people have fled Mozambique to neighbouring Malawi due to the political-military conflict between the government of Mozambique and RENAMO (the country’s largest opposition party). This led to a series of military clashes between the two parties and the consequent flight of some Mozambicans to Malawi, in search of asylum. Most arrived from the province of Tete, in the central region of Mozambique, and, to a lesser extent, from the province of Zambezia. The asylum seekers arrived in small groups and settled in the village of Kapise in the Mwanza district of Thambani, as well as in Chikwawa and Nsanje districts in Malawi. UNHCR led an interinstitutional response action to manage the flow of Mozambican asylum seekers to Malawi. In view of these aspects and the ongoing challenge of protecting refugees and finding permanent solutions to their situation, UNHCR remains an indispensable international organization. However, there are significant gaps in the international refugee protection regime, and there have been many occasions when UNHCR has failed to fulfill its mandate. The analysis was carried out through qualitative research methods and techniques based essentially on consultation of books, newspapers and scientific articles, television and journalistic reports and interviews with the people who were involved in the process. From the data obtained, it was concluded that UNHCR worked in coordination with its partners and the government of Malawi to provide protection and emergency assistance to the refugees. However, existing funds covered only the immediate needs of refugees, more funds had to be allocated. That was made through an interinstitutional appeal. Although the funds allocated were not sufficient, they allowed the agency to protect and assist the refugees until a permanent solution was found. UNHCR also worked in coordination with the governments of Malawi and Mozambique so that a tripartite agreement was signed between the parties for the voluntary repatriation of Mozambican refugees, since security conditions were guaranteed and the refugees had expressed their willingness to return to their country of origin. UNHCR's actions to protect Mozambican refugees in Malawi have enabled humanitarian conditions to be respected and the rights of refugees to be guaranteed. Cooperation with the different actors involved in the response has allowed UNHCR to fulfil its mandate.

Keywords: assistance , cooperation, international protection, refugees

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Authors: N. Samarinas, C. Evangelides, C. Vrekos

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The aim of this paper is the comparison of three different methods, in order to produce fuzzy tolerance relations for rainfall data classification. More specifically, the three methods are correlation coefficient, cosine amplitude and max-min method. The data were obtained from seven rainfall stations in the region of central Greece and refers to 20-year time series of monthly rainfall height average. Three methods were used to express these data as a fuzzy relation. This specific fuzzy tolerance relation is reformed into an equivalence relation with max-min composition for all three methods. From the equivalence relation, the rainfall stations were categorized and classified according to the degree of confidence. The classification shows the similarities among the rainfall stations. Stations with high similarity can be utilized in water resource management scenarios interchangeably or to augment data from one to another. Due to the complexity of calculations, it is important to find out which of the methods is computationally simpler and needs fewer compositions in order to give reliable results.

Keywords: classification, fuzzy logic, tolerance relations, rainfall data

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall-runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15–May 18 2014). The prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: flood, HEC-HMS, prediction, rainfall, runoff

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Authors: Heny Pratiwi, Niken Silmi Surjandari, Noegroho Djarwanti

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This study was conducted to determine the potential for landslides as a result of monthly rainfall in a watershed. Rainfall data that will be used is rainfall from years 2007-2011. Research methods created by modeling the slope on some variation of angle in a row 30◦, 45◦, and 60◦ with a homogeneous layer of soil. Slope Stability Analysis using Method Fellenius. The results of the slope stability analysis without rain on slope 30◦, 45◦, and 60◦ respectively 1.3846, 1.0115, and 0.7284. Results in the absence of rain showed that the slope on the slope 45◦ are in critical condition and on a slope with a slope 60◦ already avalanche with safety factor value <1. The results in the rainy conditions shows slopes 30◦ are in critical condition with a value factor <1 due to the intensity of monthly rainfall> 250 mm/month.

Keywords: slope stability, monthly rainfall, infiltration, safety factor, Fellenius method

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

Abstract:

Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model

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Authors: Bouziane Mohamed Tewfik

Abstract:

In order to improve the understanding of the influence of rainfall intensity on infiltration and deformation behaviour of unsaturated soil slopes, numerical 2D analyses are carried out by a three phase elasto-viscoplastic seepage-deformation coupled method. From the numerical results, it is shown that regardless of the saturated permeability of the soil slope, the increase in the pore water pressure (reduction in suction) during rainfall infiltration is localized close to the slope surface. In addition, the generation of the pore water pressure and the lateral displacement are mainly controlled by the ratio of the rainfall intensity to the saturated permeability of the soil.

Keywords: unsaturated soil, slope stability, rainfall infiltration, numerical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 437