Search results for: Average Delay time

Authors: Antoni Wibowo, Harry Pujianto, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro

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The stock market can provide huge profits in a relatively short time in financial sector; however, it also has a high risk for investors and traders if they are not careful to look the factors that affect the stock market. Therefore, they should give attention to the dynamic fluctuations and movements of the stock market to optimize profits from their investment. In this paper, we present a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) to predict the movements of stock market; especially, the movements of the closing price index. As case study, we consider to predict the movement of the closing price in Indonesia composite index (IHSG) and choose the best structures of NARX for IHSG’s prediction.

Keywords: NARX, prediction, stock market, time series.

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Authors: Sami Mutair, Yasuyuki Ikegami

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This paper reports on the results of experimental investigations of flash evaporation from superheated jet issues vertically upward from a round straight nozzle of 81.3 mm diameter. For the investigated range of jet superheat degree and velocity, it was shown that flash evaporation enhances with initial temperature increase. Due to the increase of jet inertia and subsequently the delay of jet shattering, increase of jet velocity was found to result in increase of evaporation "delay period". An empirical equation predicts the jet evaporation completion height was developed, this equation is thought to be useful in designing the flash evaporation chamber. In attempts for enhancement of flash evaporation, use of steel wire mesh located at short distance downstream was found effective with no consequent pressure drop.

Keywords: Enhancement; Flash Evaporation; OTEC; superheated jet

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Authors: Mingyang Sun, Guozheng Yan, Dasheng Liu, Lei Yang

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Driven by the demand of intelligent monitoring in rehabilitation centers or hospitals, a high accuracy real-time location system based on UWB (ultra-wideband) technology was proposed. The system measures precise location of a specific person, traces his movement and visualizes his trajectory on the screen for doctors or administrators. Therefore, doctors could view the position of the patient at any time and find them immediately and exactly when something emergent happens. In our design process, different algorithms were discussed, and their errors were analyzed. In addition, we discussed about a , simple but effective way of correcting the antenna delay error, which turned out to be effective. By choosing the best algorithm and correcting errors with corresponding methods, the system attained a good accuracy. Experiments indicated that the ranging error of the system is lower than 7 cm, the locating error is lower than 20 cm, and the refresh rate exceeds 5 times per second. In future works, by embedding the system in wearable IoT (Internet of Things) devices, it could provide not only physical parameters, but also the activity status of the patient, which would help doctors a lot in performing healthcare.

Keywords: Intelligent monitoring, IoT devices, real-time location, smart healthcare, ultra-wideband technology.

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Authors: A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos

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The prediction of meteorological parameters at a meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a comparison between local and global prediction schemes.

Keywords: Fuzzy predictive model, grey model, local andglobal prediction, meteorological forecasting, time series.

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Authors: Changjin Xu

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In this paper, applying frequency domain approach, a delayed predator-prey fishery model with prey reserve is investigated. By choosing the delay τ as a bifurcation parameter, It is found that Hopf bifurcation occurs as the bifurcation parameter τ passes a sequence of critical values. That is, a family of periodic solutions bifurcate from the equilibrium when the bifurcation parameter exceeds a critical value. The length of delay which preserves the stability of the positive equilibrium is calculated. Some numerical simulations are included to justify the theoretical analysis results. Finally, main conclusions are given.

Keywords: Predator-prey model, stability, Hopf bifurcation, frequency domain, Nyquist criterion.

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Authors: Hui-Chuan Lu

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A perfect secret-sharing scheme is a method to distribute a secret among a set of participants in such a way that only qualified subsets of participants can recover the secret and the joint share of participants in any unqualified subset is statistically independent of the secret. The collection of all qualified subsets is called the access structure of the perfect secret-sharing scheme. In a graph-based access structure, each vertex of a graph G represents a participant and each edge of G represents a minimal qualified subset. The average information ratio of a perfect secret-sharing scheme  realizing the access structure based on G is defined as AR = (Pv2V (G) H(v))/(|V (G)|H(s)), where s is the secret and v is the share of v, both are random variables from  and H is the Shannon entropy. The infimum of the average information ratio of all possible perfect secret-sharing schemes realizing a given access structure is called the optimal average information ratio of that access structure. Most known results about the optimal average information ratio give upper bounds or lower bounds on it. In this present structures based on bipartite graphs and determine the exact values of the optimal average information ratio of some infinite classes of them.

Keywords: secret-sharing scheme, average information ratio, star covering, core sequence.

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Authors: Zhongzhen Luo, Saeid Habibi, Martin v. Mohrenschildt

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Self-driving vehicle require a high level of situational awareness in order to maneuver safely when driving in real world condition. This paper presents a LiDAR based real time perception system that is able to process sensor raw data for multiple target detection and tracking in dynamic environment. The proposed algorithm is nonparametric and deterministic that is no assumptions and priori knowledge are needed from the input data and no initializations are required. Additionally, the proposed method is working on the three-dimensional data directly generated by LiDAR while not scarifying the rich information contained in the domain of 3D. Moreover, a fast and efficient for real time clustering algorithm is applied based on a radially bounded nearest neighbor (RBNN). Hungarian algorithm procedure and adaptive Kalman filtering are used for data association and tracking algorithm. The proposed algorithm is able to run in real time with average run time of 70ms per frame.

Keywords: LiDAR, real-time system, clustering, tracking, data association.

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Authors: Khaled E. A. Negm

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A neuron can emit spikes in an irregular time basis and by averaging over a certain time window one would ignore a lot of information. It is known that in the context of fast information processing there is no sufficient time to sample an average firing rate of the spiking neurons. The present work shows that the spiking neurons are capable of computing the radial basis functions by storing the relevant information in the neurons' delays. One of the fundamental findings of the this research also is that when using overlapping receptive fields to encode the data patterns it increases the network-s clustering capacity. The clustering algorithm that is discussed here is interesting from computer science and neuroscience point of view as well as from a perspective.

Keywords: Temporal Neurons, RBF Recognition, Perturbation, On Line Recognition.

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Authors: Nooshin Salari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we propose a condition-based maintenance policy for multi-unit systems considering the existence of economic dependency among units. We consider a system composed of N identical units, where each unit deteriorates independently. Deterioration process of each unit is modeled as a three-state continuous time homogeneous Markov chain with two working states and a failure state. The average production rate of units varies in different working states and demand rate of the system is constant. Units are inspected at equidistant time epochs, and decision regarding performing maintenance is determined by the number of units in the failure state. If the total number of units in the failure state exceeds a critical level, maintenance is initiated, where units in failed state are replaced correctively and deteriorated state units are maintained preventively. Our objective is to determine the optimal number of failed units to initiate maintenance minimizing the long run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. A numerical example is developed to demonstrate the proposed policy and the comparison with the corrective maintenance policy is presented.

Keywords: Reliability, production, maintenance optimization, Semi-Markov Decision Process.

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Authors: M. Santhalakshmi, P Suganthi

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Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have many advantages. Their deployment is easier and faster than wired sensor networks or other wireless networks, as they do not need fixed infrastructure. Nodes are partitioned into many small groups named clusters to aggregate data through network organization. WSN clustering guarantees performance achievement of sensor nodes. Sensor nodes energy consumption is reduced by eliminating redundant energy use and balancing energy sensor nodes use over a network. The aim of such clustering protocols is to prolong network life. Low Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy (LEACH) is a popular protocol in WSN. LEACH is a clustering protocol in which the random rotations of local cluster heads are utilized in order to distribute energy load among all sensor nodes in the network. This paper proposes Connected Dominant Set (CDS) based cluster formation. CDS aggregates data in a promising approach for reducing routing overhead since messages are transmitted only within virtual backbone by means of CDS and also data aggregating lowers the ratio of responding hosts to the hosts existing in virtual backbones. CDS tries to increase networks lifetime considering such parameters as sensors lifetime, remaining and consumption energies in order to have an almost optimal data aggregation within networks. Experimental results proved CDS outperformed LEACH regarding number of cluster formations, average packet loss rate, average end to end delay, life computation, and remaining energy computation.

Keywords: Wireless sensor network, connected dominant set, clustering, data aggregation.

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, Akram Khaleghei G.B.

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In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1 which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Condition-Based Maintenance, Semi-Markov Decision Process, Multivariate Bayesian Control Chart, Partially Observable System, Two-unit System.

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Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

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We present a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting applied to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province, in Canada. More precisely, we take into account three meteorological variables — temperature, cloudiness and wind speed —, and we use meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1.79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering.

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Authors: In Su Na, Gunwon Lee, Seiyong Kim

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This study analyzed the effect of area variables and economic variables on the length of each period of the project in order to analyze the effect of agreement rate on project implementation in housing renewal projects. In conclusion, as can be seen from these results, a low agreement rate may not translate into project promotion, and a higher agreement rate may not translate into project delay. The expectation of the policy is that the lower the agreement rate, the more projects would be promoted, but that is not the actual effect. From a policy consistency viewpoint, changing the agreement rate frequently, depending on the decision of the public, is not reasonable. The policy of using agreement rate as a necessary condition for project implementation should be reconsidered.

Keywords: Area and Economic Variables, Elapsed time, Housing Renewal Project.

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Authors: Zheni S. Stefanova, Kandethody M. Ramachandran

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With the increasing dependency on our computer devices, we face the necessity of adequate, efficient and effective mechanisms, for protecting our network. There are two main problems that Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) attempt to solve. 1) To detect the attack, by analyzing the incoming traffic and inspect the network (intrusion detection). 2) To produce a prompt response when the attack occurs (intrusion prevention). It is critical creating an Intrusion detection model that will detect a breach in the system on time and also challenging making it provide an automatic and with an acceptable delay response at every single stage of the monitoring process. We cannot afford to adopt security measures with a high exploiting computational power, and we are not able to accept a mechanism that will react with a delay. In this paper, we will propose an intrusion response mechanism that is based on artificial intelligence, and more precisely, reinforcement learning techniques (RLT). The RLT will help us to create a decision agent, who will control the process of interacting with the undetermined environment. The goal is to find an optimal policy, which will represent the intrusion response, therefore, to solve the Reinforcement learning problem, using a Q-learning approach. Our agent will produce an optimal immediate response, in the process of evaluating the network traffic.This Q-learning approach will establish the balance between exploration and exploitation and provide a unique, self-learning and strategic artificial intelligence response mechanism for IDS.

Keywords: Intrusion prevention, network security, optimal policy, Q-learning.

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Authors: Sourabh Jain, Sukhvir Singh Jain, Gaurav V. Jain

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Intelligent Transportation System is an integrated application of communication, control and monitoring and display process technologies for developing a user–friendly transportation system for urban areas in developing countries. In fact, the development of a country and the progress of its transportation system are complementary to each other. Urban traffic has been growing vigorously due to population growth as well as escalation of vehicle ownership causing congestion, delays, pollution, accidents, high-energy consumption and low productivity of resources. The development and management of urban transport in developing countries like India however, is at tryout stage with very few accumulations. Under the umbrella of ITS, urban corridor management strategy have proven to be one of the most successful system in accomplishing these objectives. The present study interprets and figures out the performance of the 27.4 km long Urban Bus route having six intersections, five flyovers and 29 bus stops that covers significant area of the city by causality analysis. Performance interpretations incorporate Passenger Boarding and Alighting, Dwell time, Distance between Bus Stops and Total trip time taken by bus on selected urban route.

Keywords: Congestion, Dwell time, delay, passengers boarding alighting, travel time.

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Authors: Marwan Ihsan Shukur, Lee Sheng Chyan, Vooi Voon Yap

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Wireless sensor networks is an emerging technology that serves as environment monitors in many applications. Yet these miniatures suffer from constrained resources in terms of computation capabilities and energy resources. Limited energy resource in these nodes demands an efficient consumption of that resource either by developing the modules itself or by providing an efficient communication protocols. This paper presents a comprehensive summarization and a comparative study of the available MAC protocols proposed for Wireless Sensor Networks showing their capabilities and efficiency in terms of energy consumption and delay guarantee.

Keywords: MAC (Medium Access Control), SEA (Simple EnergyAware), WSNs (Wireless Sensor Nodes or Networks) RTS (RequestTo Send), CTS (Clear To Send), SYNCH (Synchronize), NS2(Network Simulator 2).

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Authors: Zhenguo Vincent Chia, Sheung Yan Simon Ng, Minkyu Je

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This paper presents CMOS Current Mode Logic (CML) circuits for a high speed Digital to Analog Converter (DAC) using standard CMOS 65nm process. The CML circuits have the propagation delay advantage over its conventional CMOS counterparts due to smaller output voltage swing and tunable bias current. The CML circuits proposed in this paper can achieve a maximum propagation delay of only 9.3ps, which can satisfy the stringent requirement for the 5 GHz high speed DAC application. Another advantage for CML circuits is its dynamic symmetry characteristic resulting in a reduction of an additional inverter. Simulation results show that the proposed CML circuits can operate from 1.08V to 1.3V with temperature ranging from -40 to +120°C.

Keywords: Conventional, Current Mode Logic, DAC, Decoder

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Authors: Tushnik Sarkar, Mofazzal H. Khondekar, Subrata Banerjee

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This paper investigates the nature of the fluctuation of the daily average Solar wind speed time series collected over a period of 2492 days, from 1^st January, 1997 to 28^th October, 2003. The degree of self-similarity and scalability of the Solar Wind Speed signal has been explored to characterise the signal fluctuation. Multi-fractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) method has been implemented on the signal which is under investigation to perform this task. Furthermore, the singularity spectra of the signals have been also obtained to gauge the extent of the multifractality of the time series signal.

Keywords: Detrended fluctuation analysis, generalized Hurst exponent, holder exponents, multifractal exponent, multifractal spectrum, singularity spectrum, time series analysis.

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Authors: A. I. M. Ismail, N. Ryden

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This paper is concerned with the study of mineralogy and engineering characteristics of soil materials derived from the eastern part of Nile Delta. The clay minerals of the studied soil by using X- ray diffraction are mainly illite (average 72.6 %) and kaolinite (average 2.6 %), expandable portion in illite-smectite mixed layer (average 7 %). Smectite is more abundant in fluviatile clays, whereas kaolinite is more abundant in lagoonal clays. On the other hand, illite and illite-smectite are more abundant in marine clays. The geotechnical results show that the soil under study consists mainly of about 0.3 % gravel, 5 % sand, 51.5 % silt and 42.2 % clay in average. The average shrinkage limit attains 11 % whereas the average value of the plasticity index is 23.4 %. The free swelling ranges from 40 % to 75 % and has a value of 55 % giving an indication about the inadequacy of such soil under foundations. From a construction point of view, the soil under investigation poses many problems even under light foundations due to the swelling and shrinkage. Such swelling and shrinkage is due to the high content of soil materials in the expandable clay minerals of illite and smectite. Based on the results of the present and earlier studies, trial application of soil stabilisation is recommended.

Keywords: Engineering Geological Investigations, Nile Delta, Swelling, Shrinkage

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Authors: Farid Moshgelani, Dhamin Al-Khalili, Côme Rozon

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In this paper, FinFET devices are analyzed with emphasis on sub-threshold leakage current control. This is achieved through proper biasing of the back gate, and through the use of asymmetric work functions for the four terminal FinFET devices. We are also examining different configurations of multiplexers and XOR gates using transistors of symmetric and asymmetric work functions. Based on extensive characterization data for MUX circuits, our proposed configuration using symmetric devices lead to leakage current and delay improvements of 65% and 47% respectively compared to results in the literature. For XOR gates, a 90% improvement in the average leakage current is achieved by using asymmetric devices. All simulations are based on a 25nm FinFET technology using the University of Florida UFDG model.

Keywords: FinFET, logic functions, asymmetric workfunction devices, back gate biasing, sub-threshold leakage current.

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Authors: Jun Wang, Tingcun Wei

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The digital pulse width modulator (DPWM) is the crucial building block for digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter, which converts the digital duty ratio signal into its analog counterpart to control the power MOSFET transistors on or off. With the increase of switching frequency of digitally-controlled DC-DC converter, the DPWM with higher time resolution is required. In this paper, a 15-bits DPWM with three-level hybrid structure is presented; the first level is composed of a7-bits counter and a comparator, the second one is a 5-bits delay line, and the third one is a 3-bits digital dither. The presented DPWM is designed and implemented using the PLL megafunction of FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Arrays), and the required frequency of clock signal is 128 times of switching frequency. The simulation results show that, for the switching frequency of 2 MHz, a DPWM which has the time resolution of 15 ps is achieved using a maximum clock frequency of 256MHz. The designed DPWM in this paper is especially useful for high-frequency digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converters.

Keywords: DPWM, PLL megafunction, FPGA, time resolution, digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter.

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Authors: Ki-Young Kim, Jae-Ho Lim, Deok-Min Kim, Seok-Yoon Kim

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Average current analysis checking the impact of current flow is very important to guarantee the reliability of semiconductor systems. As semiconductor process technologies improve, the coupling capacitance often become bigger than self capacitances. In this paper, we propose an analytic technique for analyzing average current on interconnects in multi-conductor structures. The proposed technique has shown to yield the acceptable errors compared to HSPICE results while providing computational efficiency.

Keywords: current moment, interconnect modeling, reliability analysis, worst-case switching

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Authors: Wichan Lertlop, Boonyarat Chaleephay

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The objective of this research was to study the appropriate thermal level and time for dabbing customers with the massage compressed pack reported from their perception. The investigation was conducted by comparing different angles of tilted heads done by the customers together with their perception before and after the dabbing. The variables included different temperature of the compressed packs and different dabbing duration. Samples in this study included volunteers who got massage therapy and dabbing with hot compressed packs by traditional Thai medical students. The experiment was conducted during January to June 2013. The research tool consisted of angle meters, stop watches, thermometers, and massage compressed packs. The customers were interviewed for their perceptions before and after the dabbing. The results showed that:

1. There was a difference of the average angles of tilted heads before and after the dabbing.
2. There was no difference of the average angles at different temperatures but constant duration.
3. There was no difference of the average angles at different durations.
4. The customers reported relaxation no matter what the various temperatures and various dabbing durations were. However, they reported too hot at the temperature 70^oC and over.

Keywords: Massage, Therapy, Therapeutic Systems and Technologies.

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Authors: Chris K. Y. Lo, Andy C. L. Yeung, T. C. Edwin Cheng

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ISO 9000 is the most popular and widely adopted meta-standard for quality and operational improvements. However, only limited empirical research has been conducted to examine the impact of ISO 9000 on operational performance based on objective and longitudinal data. To reveal any causal relationship between the adoption of ISO 9000 and operational performance, we examined the timing and magnitude of change in time-based performance as a result of ISO 9000 adoption. We analyzed the changes in operating cycle, inventory days, and account receivable days prior and after the implementation of ISO 9000 in 695 publicly listed manufacturing firms. We found that ISO 9000 certified firms shortened their operating cycle time by 5.28 days one year after the implementation of ISO 9000. In the long-run (3 years after certification), certified firms showed continuous improvement in time-based efficiency, and experienced a shorter operating cycle time of 11 days than that of non-certified firms. There was an average of 6.5% improvement in operating cycle time for ISO 9000 certified firms. Both inventory days and account receivable days showed similar significant improvements after the implementation of ISO 9000, too.

Keywords: ISO 9000, Operating Cycle, Time-based efficiency.

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Authors: Zixin Liu, Huawei Yang, Fangwei Chen

Abstract:

This paper studies the mean square exponential synchronization problem of a class of stochastic neutral type chaotic neural networks with mixed delay. On the Basis of Lyapunov stability theory, some sufficient conditions ensuring the mean square exponential synchronization of two identical chaotic neural networks are obtained by using stochastic analysis and inequality technique. These conditions are expressed in the form of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), whose feasibility can be easily checked by using Matlab LMI Toolbox. The feedback controller used in this paper is more general than those used in previous literatures. One simulation example is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the derived results.

Keywords: Exponential synchronization, stochastic analysis, chaotic neural networks, neutral type system.

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Authors: Roozbeh Molavi, Davood A. Khaburi

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The permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) is very useful in many applications. Vector control of PMSM is popular kind of its control. In this paper, at first an optimal vector control for PMSM is designed and then results are compared with conventional vector control. Then, it is assumed that the measurements are noisy and linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) methodology is used to filter the noises. The results of noisy optimal vector control and filtered optimal vector control are compared to each other. Nonlinearity of PMSM and existence of inverter in its control circuit caused that the system is nonlinear and time-variant. With deriving average model, the system is changed to nonlinear time-invariant and then the nonlinear system is converted to linear system by linearization of model around average values. This model is used to optimize vector control then two optimal vector controls are compared to each other. Simulation results show that the performance and robustness to noise of the control system has been highly improved.

Keywords: Kalman filter, Linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG), Linear quadratic regulator (LQR), Permanent-Magnet synchronousmotor (PMSM).

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Authors: S. Gherbi, F. Bouchareb

Abstract:

This paper deals with the novel intelligent bio-inspired control strategies, it presents a novel approach based on an optimal fuzzy immune PID parameters tuning, it is a combination of a PID controller, inspired by the human immune mechanism with fuzzy logic. Such controller offers more possibilities to deal with the delayed systems control difficulties due to the delay term. Indeed, we use an optimization approach to tune the four parameters of the controller in addition to the fuzzy function; the obtained controller is implemented in a modified Smith predictor structure, which is well known that it is the most efficient to the control of delayed systems. The application of the presented approach to control a three tank delay system shows good performances and proves the efficiency of the method.

Keywords: Delayed systems, Fuzzy Immune PID, Optimization, Smith predictor.

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Authors: Narendra Singh Yadav, R.P.Yadav

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Mobile ad hoc network is a collection of mobile nodes communicating through wireless channels without any existing network infrastructure or centralized administration. Because of the limited transmission range of wireless network interfaces, multiple "hops" may be needed to exchange data across the network. Consequently, many routing algorithms have come into existence to satisfy the needs of communications in such networks. Researchers have conducted many simulations comparing the performance of these routing protocols under various conditions and constraints. One question that arises is whether speed of nodes affects the relative performance of routing protocols being studied. This paper addresses the question by simulating two routing protocols AODV and DSDV. Protocols were simulated using the ns-2 and were compared in terms of packet delivery fraction, normalized routing load and average delay, while varying number of nodes, and speed.

Keywords: AODV, DSDV, MANET, relative performance

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Authors: Shouzhen Zeng

Abstract:

We present a new intuitionistic fuzzy aggregation operator called the intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted averaging-weighted average (IFOWAWA) operator. The main advantage of the IFOWAWA operator is that it unifies the OWA operator with the WA in the same formulation considering the degree of importance that each concept has in the aggregation. Moreover, it is able to deal with an uncertain environment that can be assessed with intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. We study some of its main properties and we see that it has a lot of particular cases such as the intuitionistic fuzzy weighted average (IFWA) and the intuitionistic fuzzy OWA (IFOWA) operator. Finally, we study the applicability of the new approach on a financial decision making problem concerning the selection of financial strategies.

Keywords: Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, Weighted average, OWA operator, Financial decision making

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Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

Abstract:

The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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