{"title":"A Comparison of Grey Model and Fuzzy Predictive Model for Time Series","authors":"A. I. Dounis, P. Tiropanis, D. Tseles, G. Nikolaou, G. P. Syrcos","volume":18,"journal":"International Journal of Computer and Information Engineering","pagesStart":2263,"pagesEnd":2269,"ISSN":"1307-6892","URL":"https:\/\/publications.waset.org\/pdf\/15438","abstract":"The prediction of meteorological parameters at a\r\nmeteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder\r\nlinear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the\r\ngrey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data\r\npoints in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we\r\nconsider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and\r\nthe grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term\r\nprediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy\r\npredictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a\r\ncomparison between local and global prediction schemes.","references":"[1] A. F. Atiya, S. M. El-Shoura, S. I. Shaheen and M. S. El-Sherif, A\r\ncomparison between neural-network forecasting techniques-case study:\r\nriver flow forecasting, IEEE Tran. On Neural Networks, Vol. 10, No. 2,\r\nMarch 1999, pp. 402-409.\r\n[2] T-C Chang, K-L Wen, H-T Chang, M-L You, Inverse approach to find\r\nan optimum \u256c\u2592 for grey prediction model, 1999 IEEE International\r\nConference on SMC, Oct. 1999, Tokyo Japan, pp. III (309- 313), 12-15.\r\n[3] A. I. Dounis, D. L. Tseles, D. Belis, M. Daratsianakis, Neuro-Fuzzy\r\nNetwork for Ambient Temperature Prediction, Neties- 97 European\r\nConference of Networking Entities, Ancona, 1-3 Oct. 1997.\r\n[4] A. I. Dounis, B. Brachos, B. Stathouliss, D. L. Tseles, Neuro-Fuzzy\r\nLogic System for Mean Daily Solar Radiation, 2nd Conference\r\nAutomation and Technology, Thessalonica 2-3 October, 1998, pp. 194-\r\n199.\r\n[5] A. I. Dounis, G. Nikolaou, D. Piromalis and D. L. Tseles, Model free\r\npredictors for meteorological parameters forecasting: a review, 1st\r\nInternational Scientific Conference on Information Technology and\r\nQuality, Athens 5-6 June, 2004, A.2.3.\r\n[6] Y.-P. Huang and C.-C. Huang, The integration and application of fuzzy\r\nand grey modeling methods, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 78, 1996, pp. 107-\r\n119.\r\n[7] Y.-P. Huang and C.-H. Huang, Real-valued genetic algorithms for fuzzy\r\ngrey prediction system, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 87, 1997, pp. 265-276.\r\n[8] Y.-P. Huang and Tai-Min Yu, The hybrid grey-based models for\r\ntemperature prediction, IEEE SMC-B, Vol. 27, No. 2, April 1997, pp.\r\n284-292.\r\n[9] J.-S. R. Jang, C.-T. Sun, E. Mizutani, Neuro-Fuzzy and Soft Computing,\r\nPrentice Hall, 1996.\r\n[10] C.-F. Juang and C.-T. Lin, An \u256c\u0192n-Line Self-Constructing Neural Fuzzy\r\nInference Network and Its Application, IEEE on FS Vol. 6, Feb. 1998,\r\npp. 12-32.\r\n[11] D. Kim and C. Kim, Forecasting Time Series with Genetic Fuzzy\r\nPredictor Ensemble, IEEE Tr. on Fuzzy Systems, Vol. 5, No. 4, Nov.\r\n1997, pp. 523-535.\r\n[12] A. Mountis, G. Levermore, Weather prediction for feedforward control\r\nworking on the summer data, 5th Conference on Technology and\r\nAutomation, Thessalonici, Greece, 15-16 October, 2005.\r\n[13] B. Reinaldo, Silveira, Shigetoshi and Sugahara, NN for local\r\nmeteorological forecasting, 3rd Conference on Artificial Intelligence\r\nApplications to the Environmental Science, AMS, Feb. 2003 D.\r\n[14] Riordan, B. K. Hansen, A fuzzy case-based system for weather\r\nprediction, Engineering Intelligent Systems, Vol. 10, no. 3, 2000, pp.\r\n139-146.\r\n[15] S.-F. Su, C.-B. Lin, Y.-T. Hsu, A high precision global prediction\r\napproach based on local prediction approaches, IEEE SMC-C, Vol.23,\r\nNo.4, Nov. 2002, pp. 416-425.\r\n[16] L. X. Wang, Adaptive Fuzzy Systems and Control Design and Stability\r\nAnalysis, PTR Prentice-Hall, 1994.\r\n[17] L. X. Wang, The WM Method Completed: A Flexible Fuzzy System\r\nApproach to Data Mining, IEEE on FS, Vol. 11, No. 6, Dec. 2003, pp.\r\n768-782.","publisher":"World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology","index":"Open Science Index 18, 2008"}