Search results for: health risk index

Authors: A. Sathiya Susuman, Hamisi F. Hamisi

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Background: Many socio-economic and demographic data are age-sex attributed. However, a variety of irregularities and misstatement are noted with respect to age-related data and less to sex data because of its biological differences between the genders. Noting the misstatement/misreporting of age data regardless of its significance importance in demographics and epidemiological studies, this study aims at assessing the quality of 2012 Tanzania Population and Housing Census Results. Methods: Data for the analysis are downloaded from Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics. Age heaping and digit preference were measured using summary indices viz., Whipple’s index, Myers’ blended index, and Age-Sex Accuracy index. Results: The recorded Whipple’s index for both sexes was 154.43; male has the lowest index of about 152.65 while female has the highest index of about 156.07. For Myers’ blended index, the preferences were at digits ‘0’ and ‘5’ while avoidance were at digits ‘1’ and ‘3’ for both sexes. Finally, Age-sex index stood at 59.8 where sex ratio score was 5.82 and age ratio scores were 20.89 and 21.4 for males and female respectively. Conclusion: The evaluation of the 2012 PHC data using the demographic techniques has qualified the data inaccurate as the results of systematic heaping and digit preferences/avoidances. Thus, innovative methods in data collection along with measuring and minimizing errors using statistical techniques should be used to ensure accuracy of age data.

Keywords: age heaping, digit preference/avoidance, summary indices, Whipple’s index, Myer’s index, age-sex accuracy index

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Authors: Davood Shishebori, Mohammad Saber Fallah Nezhad, Sina Seifi

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In this paper, a variable multiple dependent state (MDS) sampling plan is developed based on the process capability index using Bayesian approach. The optimal parameters of the developed sampling plan with respect to constraints related to the risk of consumer and producer are presented. Two comparison studies have been done. First, the methods of double sampling model, sampling plan for resubmitted lots and repetitive group sampling (RGS) plan are elaborated and average sample numbers of the developed MDS plan and other classical methods are compared. A comparison study between the developed MDS plan based on Bayesian approach and the exact probability distribution is carried out.

Keywords: MDS sampling plan, RGS plan, sampling plan for resubmitted lots, process capability index (PCI), average sample number (ASN), Bayesian approach

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Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

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Authors: Orla Muldoon, Tamaryn Nicolson, Mike Quayle, Aisling O'Donnell

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Psychology most often considers the role of experience and behaviour in shaping health at the individual level. On the other hand epidemiology has long considered risk at the wider group or structural level. Here we use the social identity approach to integrate group-level risk with individual level behaviour. Using a social identity approach we demonstrate that group or macro-level factors impact implicitly and profoundly in everyday ways at the level of individuals, via social identities. We illustrate how identities related to race, gender and inequality intersect to affect HIV/AIDS risk and AIDS treatment behaviours; how social identity processes drive stigmatising consequences of HIV and AIDS, and promote positive and effective interventions. We conclude by arguing that the social identity approach offers the field an explanatory framework that conceptualizes how social and political forces intersect with individual identity and agency to affect human health.

Keywords: social identity approach, HIV/AIDS, Africa, HIV risk, race, gender

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Authors: E. Ghoneim, C. Narron, I. Iqbal, I. Hassan, E. Hammam

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The scarcity of water is becoming a more prominent threat, especially in areas that are already arid in nature. Although the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is an arid country, its southwestern region offers a high variety of botanical landscapes, many of which are wooded forests, while the eastern and northern regions offer large areas of groundwater irrigated farmlands. At present, some parts of KSA, including forests and farmlands, have witnessed protracted and severe drought due to change in rainfall pattern as a result of global climate change. Such prolonged drought that last for several consecutive years is expected to cause deterioration of forested and pastured lands as well as cause crop failure in the KSA (e.g., wheat yield). An analysis to determine vegetation drought vulnerability and severity during the growing season (September-April) over a fourteen year period (2000-2014) in KSA was conducted using MODIS Terra imagery. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), derived from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Temperature Condition Index (TCI), derived from the Land Surface Temperature (LST) data was extracted from MODIS Terra Images. The VCI and TCI were then combined to compute the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The VHI revealed the overall vegetation health for the area under investigation. A preliminary outcome of the modeled VHI over KSA, using averaged monthly vegetation data over a 14-year period, revealed that the vegetation health condition is deteriorating over time in both naturally vegetated areas and irrigated farmlands. The derived drought map for KSA indicates that both extreme and severe drought occurrences have considerably increased over the same study period. Moreover, based on the cumulative average of drought frequency in each governorate of KSA it was determined that Makkah and Jizan governorates to the east and southwest, witness the most frequency of extreme drought, whereas Tabuk to the northwest, exhibits the less extreme drought frequency. Areas where drought is extreme or severe would most likely have negative influences on agriculture, ecosystems, tourism, and even human welfare. With the drought risk map the kingdom could make informed land management decisions including were to continue with agricultural endeavors and protect forested areas and even where to develop new settlements.

Keywords: drought, vegetation health condition, TCI, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Rong Guo, Mengshi Huang, Yujing Bai

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With the rapid development of urbanization, the urban population increases and urban sprawl appeared. And these issues led to a sharp deterioration of the ecological environment. So, the urban ecological security evaluation was imminent. The weights identify of index was a key step of the research of ecological security evaluation. The AHP was widely used in the extensive research of weights identify of ecological security index. The characteristics of authority and quantitative can fully reflect the views of relevant experts. On the basis of building the ecological security evaluation index of Harbin, the paper combed and used the basic principle of the AHP, and calculated the weights of Harbin ecological security evaluation index through the process of the expert opinions “summary-feedback-summary”. And lay a foundation of future study of Harbin ecological security index, and guide the quantitative evaluation of Harbin ecological security.

Keywords: AHP, ecological security, evaluation Index, weights identify, harbin

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Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda

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New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.

Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility

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Authors: Lia Mania, Ketevan Nanobashvili

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Background: The coronavirus disease COVID-19 has become the cause of a global health crisis during the current pandemic. This study aims to fill the paucity of epidemiological studies on the impact of COVID-19 on the oral health of pediatric populations. Methods: It was conducted an observational, cross-sectional study in Georgia, in Tbilisi (capital of Georgia), among 7 to 12-year-old PCR or rapid test-confirmed post-Covid populations in all districts of Tbilisi (10 districts in total). 332 beneficiaries who were infected with Covid within one year were included in the study. The population was selected in schools of Tbilisi according to the principle of cluster selection. A simple random selection took place in the selected clusters. According to this principle, an equal number of beneficiaries were selected in all districts of Tbilisi. By July 1, 2022, according to National Center for Disease Control and Public Health data (NCDC.Ge), the number of test-confirmed cases in the population aged 0-18 in Tbilisi was 115137 children (17.7% of all confirmed cases). The number of patients to be examined was determined by the sample size. Oral screening, microbiological examination of saliva, and administration of oral health questionnaires to guardians were performed. Statistical processing of data was done with SPSS-23. Risk factors were estimated by odds ratio and logistic regression with 95% confidence interval. Results: Statistically reliable differences between the averages of oral health indicators in asymptomatic and symptomatic covid-infected groups are: for caries intensity (DMF+def) t=4.468 and p=0.000, for modified gingival index (MGI) t=3.048, p=0.002, for simplified oral hygiene index (S-OHI) t=4.853; p=0.000. Symptomatic covid-infection has a reliable effect on the oral microbiome (Staphylococcus aureus, Candida albicans, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus epidermalis); (n=332; 77.3% vs n=332; 58.0%; OR=2.46, 95%CI: 1.318-4.617). According to the logistic regression, it was found that the severity of the covid infection has a significant effect on the frequency of pathogenic and conditionally pathogenic bacteria in the oral cavity B=0.903 AOR=2.467 (CL 1.318-4.617). Symptomatic covid-infection affects oral health indicators, regardless of the presence of other risk factors, such as parental employment status, tooth brushing behaviors, carbohydrate meal, fruit consumption. (p<0.05). Conclusion: Risk factors (parental employment status, tooth brushing behaviors, carbohydrate consumption) were associated with poorer oral health status in a post-Covid population of 7- to 12-year-old children. However, such a risk factor as symptomatic ongoing covid-infection affected the oral microbiome in terms of the abundant growth of pathogenic and conditionally pathogenic bacteria (Staphylococcus aureus, Candida albicans, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus epidermalis) and further worsened oral health indicators. Thus, a close association was established between symptomatic covid-infection and microbiome changes in the post-covid period; also - between the variables of oral health indicators and the symptomatic course of covid-infection.

Keywords: oral microbiome, COVID-19, population based research, oral health indicators

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Authors: Dana Cassandra Winkler, Delia Leiding, Rene Bergs, Franziska Kaiser, Ramona Kirchhart, Ute Habel

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Background: Violence is a multidimensional phenomenon, affecting people of every age, socio-economic status and gender. Nevertheless, most studies primarily focus on men perpetrating women. Aim of the present study is to identify the likelihood of mental and somatic disorders and risk-taking behavior in male violence affected. In addition, the relationship between age of violence experience and the risk for health-related problems was analyzed. Method: On the basis of current evidence, a questionnaire was developed focusing on demographic background, health status, risk-taking behavior, and active and passive violence exposure. In total, 5221 males (Mean: 56,1 years, SD: 17,6) were consulted. To account for the time of violence experience in an efficient way, age clusters ‘0-12 years’, ‘13-20 years’, ‘21-35 years’, ‘36-65 years’ and ‘over 65 years’ were defined. A binary logistic regression was calculated to reveal differences in violence-affected and non-violence affected males regarding health and risk-taking factors. Males who experienced violence on a daily/ almost daily basis vs. males who reported violence occurrence once/ several times a month/ year were compared with respect to health factors and risk-taking behavior. Data of males, who indicated active and passive violence exposure, were analyzed by a chi²-analysis, to investigate a possible relation between the age of victimization and violence perpetration. Findings: Results imply that general violence experience, independent of active and passive violence exposure increases the likelihood in favor of somatic-, psychosomatic- and mental disorders as well as risk-taking behavior in males. Experiencing violence on a daily or almost daily basis in childhood and adolescence may serve as a predictor for increased health problems and risk-taking behavior. Furthermore, the violence experience and perpetration occur significantly within the same age cluster. This underlines the importance of a near-term intervention to minimize the risk, that victims become perpetrators later. Conclusion: The present study reveals predictors concerning health risk factors as well as risk-taking behavior in males with violence exposure. The results of this study may underscore the benefit of intervention and regular health care approaches in violence-affected males and underline the importance of acknowledging the overlap of violence experience and perpetration for further research.

Keywords: health disease, male, mental health, prevalence, risk-taking behavior, violence

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Authors: B. O. Adegoke, B. O. Ola, D. T. Ademiluyi

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This paper examines the use of computer and its related health hazard among computer users in South-Western zone of Nigeria. Two hundred and eighteen (218) computer users constituted the population used to evaluate association between posture, extensive computer use and related health hazard. The instruments for the study are a questionnaire on demographics, lifestyle, body features and work ability index while mean rating, standard deviation and t test were used for data analysis. Identified health related hazard include damages to the eyesight, bad posture, arthritis, musculoskeletal disorders, headache, stress and so on. The results showed that factors such as work demand, posture, closeness to computer screen and excessive working hours on computers constitute health hazards in both old and young computer users of various gender. It is therefore recommended that total number of hours spent with computer should be monitored and controlled.

Keywords: computer-related health hazard, musculoskeletal disorders, computer usage, work ability index

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is a fundamental issue even for moderate to low seismic hazard regions. This fact is even more important when dealing with old structures such as those located in Annaba city (Algeria), which the majority of dates back to the French colonial era from 1830. This category of buildings is in high risk due to their highly degradation state, heterogeneous materials and intrusive modifications to structural and non-structural elements. Furthermore, they are usually shelter a dense population, which is exposed to such risk. In order to undertake a suitable seismic risk mitigation strategies and reinforcement process for such structures, it is essential to estimate their seismic resistance capacity at a large scale. In this sense, two seismic vulnerability index methods and damage estimation have been adapted and applied to a pilot-scale building area located in the moderate seismic hazard region of Annaba city: The first one based on the EMS-98 building typologies, and the second one derived from the Italian GNDT approach. To perform this task, the authors took the advantage of an existing data survey previously performed for other purposes. The results obtained from the application of the two methods were integrated and compared using a geographic information system tool (GIS), with the ultimate goal of supporting the city council of Annaba for the implementation of risk mitigation and emergency planning strategies.

Keywords: Annaba city, EMS98 concept, GNDT method, old city center, seismic vulnerability index, unreinforced masonry buildings

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Authors: Parul Suraia, Harshit Sosan Lakra

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Indigenous communities represent some of the most marginalized populations globally, with India labeled as tribals, experiencing particularly pronounced marginalization and a concerning decline in their numbers. These communities often inhabit geographically challenging regions characterized by low population densities, posing significant challenges to providing essential infrastructure services. Jharkhand, a Schedule 5 state, is infamous for its low-level health status due to disparities in access to health care. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the spatial inequalities in healthcare accessibility among tribal populations within the state and pinpoint critical areas requiring immediate attention. Health indicators were selected based on the tribal perspective and association of Sustainable Goal 3 (Good Health and Wellbeing) with other SDGs. Focused group discussions in which tribal people and tribal experts were done in order to finalize the indicators. Employing Principal Component Analysis, two essential indices were constructed: the Tribal Health Index (THI) and the Tribal Health Intervention Index (THII). Index values were calculated based on the district-wise secondary data for Jharkhand. The bivariate spatial association technique, Moran’s I was used to assess the spatial pattern of the variables to determine if there is any clustering (positive spatial autocorrelation) or dispersion (negative spatial autocorrelation) of values across Jharkhand. The results helped in facilitating targeting policy interventions in deprived areas of Jharkhand.

Keywords: tribal health, health spatial disparities, health status, Jharkhand

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Authors: Mohammed E. Mansour, Tamador M. A. Elhassan, Nahid A. Ibrahim, Awatif A. Ahmed, Manal A. Abdalla

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Rift valley fever (RVF) is mosquito-borne disease. RVF is transboundary zoonotic disease. It has socioeconomic and public health importance. This paper describes qualitative risk of the RVF vaccine production. RVF is endemic in the Sudan. It has been reported in Sudan due to abundance of Ades Eqytie. Thus, there is huge effort to control it. Vaccination practices had significant role to control and manage RVF. The risk assessment explains the likelihood of a risk as likely. Thus, insecticides and repellents synergize the effort of the vaccination.

Keywords: qualitative analysis, risk assessment, rift valley fever vaccine, quality control

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Authors: Yawen Xia, Rubi Yang, Jing Zhao

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By using the Reputation Risk Index (RRI) to measure company environmental, social, and governance (ESG) activities, this research studies firms’ ESG comovement with their industry and local peers. This comovement is attenuated during the Covid-19 pandemic. Further analysis shows that corporate governance plays an important role in comovement decrease. We classify companies by region (city, state, region) and industry and calculate the average RRI of companies of the same type. We run separate regressions to test 1) industry comovement; 2) local comovement; 3) Covid-19 pandemic and reputation risk comovement; 4) corporate governance and reputation risk comovement. Our findings are consistent with previous literature that companies follow their industry and local counterparts in engaging in irresponsible activities and reducing ESG engagement. We speculate Covid shock led to a reduction in social activities and information sharing among enterprise managers, and comovement between enterprises, as a result, decreased during the pandemic.

Keywords: ESG, Covid, peer pressure, local comovement, corporate governance

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Authors: Najeebah Almahmeed

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Risk Management is an evolving subject among organizations that include corporations, governments, non-governmental organizations, and not-for-profit corporations. In order to enhance awareness around the importance of Risk Management and make sure everyone is using it in their day-to-day job, the Risk Culture topic has emerged and gained importance not only in the Finance Sector but also in the National Oil Companies in Kuwait. Risk Culture can be defined as the shared beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors within a company that guide its approach to managing risks. It acts as a connecting force that links policies, procedures, and individuals, influencing how risks are understood and tackled through activities. In this research, benefits of Risk Culture are shared, guidelines are presented to promote a risk aware culture, and fully embed and enforce Risk-based processes and procedures. Moreover, this research demonstrates methodologies of measuring the Risk Culture using specific dimensions and clusters.

Keywords: clusters, dimensions, national oil companies, risk culture, risk management

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Authors: Lizhou Chen, Abdelhamid Belgaid, Assem Elsayed, Xiaoming Yang

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Compression index is essential in foundation settlement calculation. The traditional method for determining compression index is consolidation test which is expensive and time consuming. Many researchers have used regression methods to develop empirical equations for predicting compression index from soil properties. Based on a large number of compression index data collected from consolidation tests, the accuracy of some popularly empirical equations were assessed. It was found that primary compression index is significantly overestimated in some equations while it is underestimated in others. The sensitivity analyses of soil parameters including water content, liquid limit and void ratio were performed. The results indicate that the compression index obtained from void ratio is most accurate. The ANOVA (analysis of variance) demonstrates that the equations with multiple soil parameters cannot provide better predictions than the equations with single soil parameter. In other words, it is not necessary to develop the relationships between compression index and multiple soil parameters. Meanwhile, it was noted that secondary compression index is approximately 0.7-5.0% of primary compression index with an average of 2.0%. In the end, the proposed prediction equations using power regression technique were provided that can provide more accurate predictions than those from existing equations.

Keywords: compression index, clay, settlement, consolidation, secondary compression index, soil parameter

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Authors: Oyuntsetseg Sandag, Lkhagvadorj Khosbayar, Naidansuren Tsendeekhuu, Densenbal Dansran, Bandi Solongo

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Introduction: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder affecting at least 2% to 4% of the adult population. It is estimated that nearly 80% of men and 93% of women with moderate to severe sleep apnea are undiagnosed. A number of screening questionnaires and clinical screening models have been developed to help identify patients with OSA, also it’s indeed to clinical practice. Purpose of study: Determine dependence of obstructive sleep apnea between for severe risk and risk factor. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study included 114 patients presenting from theCentral state 3th hospital and Central state 1th hospital. Patients who had obstructive sleep apnea (OSA)selected in this study. Standard StopBang questionnaire was obtained from all patients.According to the patients’ response to the StopBang questionnaire was divided into low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk.Descriptive statistics were presented mean ± standard deviation (SD). Each questionnaire was compared on the likelihood ratio for a positive result, the likelihood ratio for a negative test result of regression. Statistical analyses were performed utilizing SPSS 16. Results: 114 patients were obtained (mean age 48 ± 16, male 57)that divided to low risk 54 (47.4%), intermediate risk 33 (28.9%), high risk 27 (23.7%). Result of risk factor showed significantly increasing that mean age (38 ± 13vs. 54 ± 14 vs. 59 ± 10, p<0.05), blood pressure (115 ± 18vs. 133 ± 19vs. 142 ± 21, p<0.05), BMI(24 IQR 22; 26 vs. 24 IQR 22; 29 vs. 28 IQR 25; 34, p<0.001), neck circumference (35 ± 3.4 vs. 38 ± 4.7 vs. 41 ± 4.4, p<0.05)were increased. Results from multiple logistic regressions showed that age is significantly independently factor for OSA (odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.23, p<0.01). Predictive value of age was significantly higher factor for OSA (AUC=0.833, 95% CI 0.758-0.909, p<0.001). Our study showing that risk of OSA is beginning 47 years old (sensitivity 78.3%, specifity74.1%). Conclusions: According to most of all patients’ response had intermediate risk and high risk. Also, age, blood pressure, neck circumference and BMI were increased such as risk factor was increased for OSA. Especially age is independently factor and highest significance for OSA. Patients’ age one year is increased likelihood risk factor 1.1 times is increased.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea, Stop-Bang, BMI (Body Mass Index), blood pressure

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Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor Sookia

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In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that 'fat-tailedness' alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: extreme value theory, financial crisis 2008, value at risk, frontier markets

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Authors: Makhosazana Dubazana

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Many South Africans commuters use minibus taxis daily and are connected to the informal transport network through metro centres informally known as Taxi Ranks. Taxi ranks form part of an economic nexus for many informal traders, connecting them to commuters, their prime clientele. They work along designated areas along the periphery of the taxi rank and in between taxi lanes. Informal traders are therefore at risk of adverse health effects associated with the inhalation of exhaust fumes from minibus taxis. Of the exhaust emissions, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) have high toxicity. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to conduct a Human Health Risk Assessment for informal traders, looking at their exposure to BTEX compounds. Methods: The study was conducted in a subsection of a taxi rank which is representative of the entire taxi rank. This subsection has a daily average of 400 minibus taxi moving through it and an average of 60 informal traders working in it. In the health risk assessment, a questionnaire was conducted to understand the occupational behaviour of the informal traders. This was used to deduce the exposure scenarios and sampling locations. Three sampling campaigns were run for an average of 10 hours each covering the average working hours of traders. A gas chronographer was used for collecting continues ambient air samples at 15 min intervals. Results: Over the three sampling days, the average concentrations were, 8.46ppb, 0.63 ppb, 1.27ppb and 1.0ppb for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene respectively. The average cancer risk is 9.46E-03. In several cases, they were incidences of unacceptable risk for the cumulative exposure of all four BTEX compounds. Conclusion: This study adds to the body of knowledge on the Human Health Risk effects of urban BTEX pollution, furthermore focusing on the impact of urban BTEX on high risk personal such as informal traders, in Southern Africa.

Keywords: human health risk assessment, informal traders, occupational risk, urban BTEX

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Basal metabolic rate is questioned as a risk factor for weight gain. The relations between basal metabolic rate and body composition have not been cleared yet. The impact of fat mass on basal metabolic rate is also uncertain. Within this context, indices based upon total body mass as well as total body fat mass are available. In this study, the aim is to investigate the potential clinical utility of these indices in the adult population. 287 individuals, aged from 18 to 79 years, were included into the scope of the study. Based upon body mass index values, 10 underweight, 88 normal, 88 overweight, 81 obese, and 20 morbid obese individuals participated. Anthropometric measurements including height (m), and weight (kg) were performed. Body mass index, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index I, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II, basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio were calculated. Total body fat mass (kg), fat percent (%), basal metabolic rate, metabolic age, visceral adiposity, fat mass of upper as well as lower extremities and trunk, obesity degree were measured by TANITA body composition monitor using bioelectrical impedance analysis technology. Statistical evaluations were performed by statistical package (SPSS) for Windows Version 16.0. Scatterplots of individual measurements for the parameters concerning correlations were drawn. Linear regression lines were displayed. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p < 0.05. The strong correlations between body mass index and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index I as well as diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II were obtained (p < 0.001). A much stronger correlation was detected between basal metabolic rate and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index I in comparison with that calculated for basal metabolic rate and body mass index (p < 0.001). Upon consideration of the associations between basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio and these three indices, the best association was observed between basal metabolic rate-to-weight and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II. In a similar manner, this index was highly correlated with fat percent (p < 0.001). Being independent of the indices, a strong correlation was found between fat percent and basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio (p < 0.001). Visceral adiposity was much strongly correlated with metabolic age when compared to that with chronological age (p < 0.001). In conclusion, all three indices were associated with metabolic age, but not with chronological age. Diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index II values were highly correlated with body mass index values throughout all ranges starting with underweight going towards morbid obesity. This index is the best in terms of its association with basal metabolic rate-to-weight ratio, which can be interpreted as basal metabolic rate unit.

Keywords: basal metabolic rate, body mass index, children, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index, obesity

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Authors: Nur Atiqah Adam, Mor Jack Ng, Bernard Chern, Kok Hian Tan

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Introduction: Gestational diabetes (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication with short and long-term health consequences for both mother and fetus. Factors such as family history of diabetes mellitus, maternal obesity, maternal age, ethnicity and parity have been reported to influence the risk of GDM. In a multi-racial country like Singapore, it is worthwhile to study the GDM prevalences of different ethnicities. We aim to investigate the influence of ethnicity on the racial prevalences of GDM in Singapore. This is important as it may help us to improve guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to significant risk factors unique to Singapore. Materials and Methods: Obstetric cohort data of 926 singleton deliveries in KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital (KKH) from 2011 to 2013 was obtained. Only patients aged 18 and above and without complicated pregnancies or chronic illnesses were targeted. Factors such as ethnicity, maternal age, parity and maternal body mass index (BMI) at booking visit were studied. A multivariable logistic regression model, adjusted for confounders, was used to determine which of these factors are significantly associated with an increased risk of GDM. Results: The overall GDM prevalence rate based on WHO 1999 criteria & at risk screening (race alone not a risk factor) was 8.86%. GDM rates were higher among women above 35 years old (15.96%), obese (15.15%) and multiparous women (10.12%). Indians had a higher GDM rate (13.0 %) compared to the Chinese (9.57%) and Malays (5.20%). However, using multiple logistic regression model, variables that are significantly related to GDM rates were maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal BMI at booking visit (p = 0.006). Conclusion: Maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal booking BMI (p = 0.006) are the strongest risk factors for GDM. Ethnicity per se does not seem to have a significant influence on the prevalence of GDM in Singapore (p = 0.064). Hence we should tailor guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to maternal age and booking BMI rather than ethnicity.

Keywords: ethnicity, gestational diabetes, healthcare, pregnancy

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Authors: Ehsan Derikvand, Hamid Kaykha, Rooholah Mansoori Yekta, Taleb Javanmard, Mohsen Mehdi Zadeh

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Corrosion and scaling are one of the most complicated and costly problems of drinking water supply. Corrosion has adverse effect on general health and public acceptance of water source and drinking water supply costs. The present study aimed to determine the potentials of corrosion and scaling of potable water supply reservoirs of Ilam city in June 2013 and August 2014 by Langelier Index (LI) and Reynar. The results of experiments and calculations show that the mean index of LSI in the first and second sampling stages is 0.34, 0.2, respectively and the mean index RSI in the first and second stages of sampling is 7.15 and 7.22, respectively. Based on LSI index of reservoirs water in the first phase, none of stations are corrosive and only one station in the second sampling phase has corrosive tendency. According to RSI index, there is no corrosive tendency in two phases. Based on the results, the water of drinking water reservoirs in Ilam city has no corrosion tendency and the analyses and results of Langelier Index (LI) and Ryznar are in relatively good condition.

Keywords: corrosion, scaling, water reservoirs, langelier and ryznar indices, Ilam city

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Authors: Mohammed Khalid Mahmood, Delphine Tardivo, Romain Lan

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Dental caries is one of the most common diseases in the world, affecting billions of people and significantly lowering the quality of life. Malnutrition, on the other hand, is defined as inadequate, imbalanced, or excessive consumption of macronutrients, micronutrients, or both, which is characterized as an abnormal physiological condition. Oral health is impacted by malnutrition, and malnutrition can result from poor oral health. The objective of this paper was to study the association of serum Vitamin D level and body mass index as representatives of malnutrition at micro and macro levels, respectively, on dental caries. Results showed that: 1. The majority of the population studied (70%) are Vitamin D deficient. 2. Having a normal and even a sufficient level of serum Vitamin D and having a normal body mass index increase the chances of children being caries-free and having a lower caries index.

Keywords: children, dental Caries, malnutrition, vitamin D

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Authors: K. Omkar, D. Nayan

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Rapid urbanization is one of the consequences of rapid population explosion, which has also led to massive increase in number of motorized vehicles essential for carrying out all activities needed for sustaining urban livelihood. With this increased use of motorized vehicles over the time there has also been an increase in number of accidents. Study of road network and geometric features are essential to tackle problems of road accidents in any district or town. The increase in road accidents is one of the burning issues in the present society. Records show that there is one death at every 3.7 minutes because of road accident. It has been found from the research that, accidents occur due to, mistakes of the driver (86%) followed by bad street condition (5%), mistake of pedestrian (4%), as well as technical and maintenance defects (1%). Here, case study of Ahmedabad, Gujarat is taken up where first road safety level is assessed considering various parameters. The study confined to accident characteristics of all types of vehicles. For deeper analysis, road safety index for various stretches in Ahmedabad was found out. Crash rate for same stretches was found out. Based on various parameters priority was decided so that which stretch should be look out first to minimize road accidents on that stretch and which stretch should look out last. The major findings of the study are that accident severity of Ahmedabad has increased, but accident fatality risk has decreased; thus there is need to undertake some traffic engineering measures or make some traffic rules that are strictly followed by traffic. From the above study and literature studied it is found that Ahmedabad is suffering from similar problem of accidents and injuries and deaths caused by them, after properly investigating the issue short-term and long-term solutions to minimize road accidents have been presented in this paper.

Keywords: accident severity index, accident fatality rate, accident fatality risk, accident risk, road safety index

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Authors: Mili Dutta, Lokender Prashad

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Introduction: Population ageing is a phenomenon that can be observed around the globe. The health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a measurement of health status of an individual, and it describes the effect of physical and mental health disorders on the well-being of a person. The present study is aimed to describe the influence of socio-economic characteristics of elderly on their health-related quality of life in India. Methods: EQ-5D instrument and population-based EQ-5D index score has been measured to access the HRQOL among elderly. Present study utilized the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) data which was conducted in 2007 in India. Multiple Logistic Regression model and Multivariate Linear Regression model has been employed. Result: In the present study, it was found that the female are more likely to have problems in mobility (OR=1.41, 95% Cl: 1.14 to 1.74), self-care (OR=1.26, 95% Cl: 1.01 to 1.56) and pain or discomfort (OR=1.50, 95% Cl: 1.16 to 1.94). Elderly residing in rural area are more likely to have problems in pain/discomfort (OR=1.28, 95% Cl: 1.01 to 1.62). More older and non-working elderly are more likely whereas higher educated and highest wealth quintile elderly are less likely to have problems in all the dimensions of EQ-5D viz. mobility, self-care, usual activity, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression. The present study has also shown that oldest old people, residing in rural area and currently not working elderly are more likely to report low EQ-5D index score whereas elderly with high education level and high wealth quintile are more likely to report high EQ-5D index score than their counterparts. Conclusion: The present study has found EQ-5D instrument as the valid measure for assessing the HRQOL of elderly in India. The study indicates socio-economic characteristics of elderly such as female, more older people, residing in rural area, non-educated, poor and currently non-working as the major risk groups of having poor HRQOL in India. Findings of the study will be helpful for the programmes and policy makers, researchers, academician and social workers who are working in the field of ageing.

Keywords: ageing, HRQOL, India, EQ-5D, SAGE, socio-economic characteristics

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Authors: C. L. Wu, W. W. Tseng

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From the National Health Insurance (NHI) system was introduced in Taiwan in 2000, there have been some problems in transformed small-scale hospitals, such as mobility of patients, shortage of nursing staff, medical pipelines breaking fire compartments and insufficient fire protection systems. Due to shrinking of the funding scale and the aging society, fire safety in small-scale hospitals has recently given cause for concern. The aim of this study is to determine fire risk index for small-scale hospital through a systematic approach The selection of fire safety mitigation methods can be regarded as a multi-attribute decision making process which must be guaranteed by expert groups. First of all, identify and select safety related factors and identify evaluation criteria through literature reviews and experts group. Secondly, application of the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method is used to ascertain a weighted value which enables rating of the importance each of the selected factors. Overall, Sprinkler type and Compartmentation are the most crucial indices in mitigating fire, that is to say, structural approach play an important role to decrease losses in fire events.

Keywords: Fuzzy Delphi Method, fuzzy analytic hierarchy, process risk assessment, fire events

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Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

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Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

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Authors: Ji-Yuan Lin, Yu-Ming Liou, Yi-Ting Chen, Chen-Syuan Lin

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Soil water index obtained by tank model is now commonly used in soil and sand disaster alarm system in Japan. Comparing with the rainfall trigging index in Taiwan, the tank model is easy to predict the slope water content on large-scale landslide. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the threshold value of large-scale landslide using the soil water index Sixteen typhoons and heavy rainfall events, were selected to establish the, to relationship between landslide event and soil water index. Finally, the proposed threshold values for landslides on country road No.89 are suggested in this study. The study results show that 95% landslide cases occurred in soil water index more than 125mm, and 30% of the more serious slope failure occurred in the soil water index is greater than 250mm. Beside, this study speculates when soil water index more than 250mm and the difference value between second tank and third tank less than -25mm, it leads to large-scale landslide more probably.

Keywords: soil water index, tank model, landslide, threshold values

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Authors: Fatemeh Rezaei, Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshnas

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Background: Failure Modes and Effect Analysis is now having known as the main methods of risk assessment and the accreditation requirements for many organizations. The Risk Priority Number (RPN) approach is generally preferred, especially for its easiness of use. Indeed it does not require statistical data, but it is based on subjective evaluations given by the experts about the Occurrence (O i), the Severity (Si) and the Detectability (D i) of each cause of failure. Methods: This study is a quantitative – qualitative research. In terms of qualitative dimension, method of focus groups with inductive approach is used. To evaluate the results of the qualitative study, quantitative assessment was conducted to calculate RPN score. Results; We have studied patient’s journey process in surgery ward and the most important phase of the process determined Transport of the patient from the holding area to the operating room. Failures of the phase with the highest priority determined by defining inclusion criteria included severity (clinical effect, claim consequence, waste of time and financial loss), occurrence (time- unit occurrence and degree of exposure to risk) and preventability (degree of preventability and defensive barriers) and quantifying risks priority criteria in the context of RPN index. Ability of improved RPN reassess by root cause (RCA) analysis showed some variations. Conclusions: Finally, It could be concluded that understandable criteria should have been developed according to personnel specialized language and communication field. Therefore, participation of both technical and clinical groups is necessary to modify and apply these models.

Keywords: failure mode, effects analysis, risk priority number(RPN), health system, risk assessment

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Authors: Era Dorihi Kale, Sabina Gero, Uly Agustine

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Asylum seekers are people who come to other countries to get asylum. In line with that, they also carry the culture and health behavior of their country, which is very different from the new country they currently live in. This situation raises problems, also in the health sector. The approach taken must also be a culturally sensitive approach, where the culture and habits of the refugee's home area are also valued so that the health services provided can be right on target. Some risk factors that already exist in this group are lack of activity, consumption of fast food, smoking, and stress levels that are quite high. Overall this condition will increase the risk of an increased incidence of cardiovascular disease. This research is a descriptive and experimental study. The purpose of this study is to identify health status and develop a culturally sensitive health promotion model, especially related to the risk of cardiovascular disease for asylum seekers in detention homes in the city of Kupang. This research was carried out in 3 stages, stage 1 was conducting a survey of health problems and the risk of asylum seeker cardiovascular disease, Stage 2 developed a health promotion model, and stage 3 conducted a testing model of health promotion carried out. There were 81 respondents involved in this study. The variables measured were: health status, risk of cardiovascular disease and, health promotion models. Method of data collection: Instruments (questionnaires) were distributed to respondents answered for anamnese health status; then, cardiovascular risk measurements were taken. After that, the preparation of information needs and the compilation of booklets on the prevention of cardiovascular disease is carried out. The compiled booklet was then translated into Farsi. After that, the booklet was tested. Respondent characteristics: average lived in Indonesia for 4.38 years, the majority were male (90.1%), and most were aged 15-34 years (90.1%). There are several diseases that are often suffered by asylum seekers, namely: gastritis, headaches, diarrhea, acute respiratory infections, skin allergies, sore throat, cough, and depression. The level of risk for asylum seekers experiencing cardiovascular problems is 4 high risk people, 6 moderate risk people, and 71 low risk people. This condition needs special attention because the number of people at risk is quite high when compared to the age group of refugees. This is very related to the level of stress experienced by the refugees. The health promotion model that can be used is the transactional stress and coping model, using Persian (oral) and English for written information. It is recommended for health practitioners who care for refugees to always pay attention to aspects of culture (especially language) as well as the psychological condition of asylum seekers to make it easier to conduct health care and promotion. As well for further research, it is recommended to conduct research, especially relating to the effect of psychological stress on the risk of cardiovascular disease in asylum seekers.

Keywords: asylum seekers, health status, cardiovascular disease, health promotion

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