Search results for: geological trend

Authors: S. A. Agbalajobi, W. A. Bello

Abstract:

The study carried out analysis on slope stability in an excavated gneiss rock using geological strength index (GSI) in Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria. A kinematic analysis of planar discontinuity sets in a gneiss deposit was carried out to ascertain the degree of slope stability. Discontinuity orientations in the rock mass were mapped using compass clinometers. The average result of physical and mechanical properties such as specific gravity, unit weight, uniaxial compressive strength, point load index, and Schmidt rebound value are 2.64 g/m3, 25.95 kN/m3, 156 MPa, 6.5 MPa, and 53.12 respectively. Also, a statistical model equation relating the rock strength was developed. The analyses states that the rock face is susceptible to wedge failures having all the geometrical conditions associated with the occurrence of such failures were noticeable. It can be concluded that analyses of discontinuity orientation in relation to cut face direction in rock excavation is essential for mine planning to forestall mine accidents. Assessment of excavated slope methods was evident that one excavation method (blasting and/or use of hydraulic hammer) is applicable for the given rock strength, the ease of excavation decreases as the rock mass quality increases, thus blasting most suitable for such operation.

Keywords: slope stability, wedge failure, geological strength index (GSI), discontinuities and excavated slope

Procedia PDF Downloads 480

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Deniz Peksen

Abstract:

This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Zhan Fengmei Yao, Hui Li, Jiahua Zhang

Abstract:

The Northeast China (NEC) was the most important agriculture areas and known as the Golden-Maize-Belt. Based on observed crop data and crop model, we design four simulating experiments and separate relative impacts and contribution under climate change, planting date shift, and varieties change as well change of varieties and planting date. Without planting date and varieties change, maize yields had no significant change trend at Hailun station located in the north of NEC, and presented significant decrease by 0.2-0.4 t/10a at two stations, which located in the middle and the south of NEC. With planting date change, yields showed a significant increase by 0.09 - 0.47 t/10a. With varieties change, maize yields had significant increase by 1.8~ 1.9 t/10a at Hailun and Huadian stations, but a non-significant and low increase by 0.2t /10a at Benxi located in the south of NEC. With change of varieties and planting date, yields presented a significant increasing by 0.53-2.0 t/10a. Their contribution to yields was -25% ~ -55% for climate change, 15% ~ 35% for planting date change, and 20% ~110% for varieties change as well 30% ~135% for varieties with planting date shift. It found that change in varieties and planting date were highest yields and were responsible for significant increases in maize yields, varieties was secondly, and planting date was thirdly. It found that adaptation in varieties and planting date greatly improved maize yields, and increased yields annual variability. The increase of contribution with planting date and varieties change in 2000s was lower than in 1990s. Yields with the varieties change and yields with planting date and varieties change all showed a decreasing trend at Huadian and Benxi since 2002 or so. It indicated that maize yields increasing trend stagnated in the middle and south of NEC, and continued in the north of NEC.

Keywords: climate change, maize yields, varieties, planting date, impacts

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Zia Ullah, Ruh Ullah

Abstract:

A research study was conceded in four locations (Swat, Dir, Kakul and Balakot) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, to find agro-climatic classes by using aridity index, Growing Degree Days of wheat and maize, crop growth index and Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall by using long term climatic data (1970-2010). The climatic data used for research was acquired from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Islamabad, Agriculture Research Institute, Weather Station Peshawar and Tarnab Peshawar. Agro-climatic classes of each location were determined using three criteria mean temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest month and aridity index. The agro-climatic classes of Dir, Swat, Kakul and Balakot were classified as Humid, Cold and very Warm (H-K-VW). Average aridity index of wheat for Dir, Swat, Kakul, and Balakot was 2.23, 2.67, 1.94 and 2.34 and for Maize was 1.31, 1.26, 1.97, and 2.83 respectively. The overall and decade-wise trend of GDD of Wheat and Maize was declined in Swat and Kakul while increased in Dir and Balakot.The average maximum CGI (1.26) and (0.73) of Wheat and Maize was observed for Balakot and Dir, while the minimum (1.09) and (0.62) was observed for Swat and Kakul. Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall shows that the trend has increased in Swat while decreased in Dir, Kakul and Balakot. From the relation between rainfalls with altitude showed that there was an increasing trend between rainfalls with altitude. The maximum average rainfall was in Swat (2703mm) on altitude 2000m while the minimum average rainfall was observed in Kakul (1410mm) on altitude of 1255m.

Keywords: agro-climatic zones, aridity index, GDD, rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Hakan Aydogan, Fatih Bozkurt, Huseyin Coskun

Abstract:

In this study, the signal of brain electrical activities of the sixteen students selected from the Department of Electrical and Energy at Usak University have been recorded during a lecturer performed happiness emotions for the first group and anger emotions for the second group in different time while the groups were in the classroom separately. The attention and meditation data extracted from the recorded signals have been analyzed and evaluated toward the teacher’s specific emotion states simultaneously. Attention levels of students who are under influence of happiness emotions of the lecturer have a positive trend and attention levels of students who are under influence of anger emotions of the lecturer have a negative trend. The meditation or mental relaxation levels of students who are under influence of happiness emotions of the lecturer are 34.3% higher comparing with the mental relaxation levels of students who are under influence of anger emotions of the lecturer.

Keywords: brainwave, attention, meditation, education

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Mohamed Malek Khenissi, Mohamed Montassar Ben Slama, Anis Belhaj Mohamed, Moncef Saidi

Abstract:

Northern Tunisia is well known by its different and complex structural and geological zones that have been the result of a geodynamic history that extends from the early Mesozoic era to the actual period. One of these zones is the salt province, where the Halokinesis process is manifested by a number of NE/SW salt structures such as Jebel Ech-Cheid which represents masses of materials characterized by a high plasticity and low density. The salt masses extrusions that have been developed due to an extension that started from the late Triassic to late Cretaceous. The evolution of salt bodies within sedimentary basins have not only contributed to modify the architecture of the basin, but it also has certain geochemical effects which touch mainly source rocks that surround it. It has been demonstrated that the presence of salt structures within sedimentary basins can influence its temperature distribution and thermal history. Moreover, it has been creating heat flux anomalies that may affect the maturity of organic matter and the timing of hydrocarbon generation. Field samples of the Bahloul source rock (Cenomanan-Tunonian) were collected from different sights from all around Ech Cheid salt structure and evaluated using Rock-eval pyrolysis and GC/MS techniques in order to assess the degree of maturity evolution and the heat flux anomalies in the different zones analyze. The Total organic Carbon (TOC) values range between 1 to 9% and the (Tmax) ranges between 424 and 445°C, also the distribution of the source rock biomarkers both saturated and aromatic changes in a regular fashions with increasing maturity and this are shown in the chromatography results such as Ts/(Ts+Tm) ratios, 22S/(22S+22R) values for C31 homohopanes, ββ/(ββ+αα)20R and 20S/(20S+20R) ratios for C29 steranes which gives a consistent maturity indications and assessment of the field samples. These analyses are carried to interpret the maturity evolution and the heat flux around Ech Cheid salt structure through the geological history. These analyses also aim to demonstrate that the salt structure can have a direct effect on the geothermal gradient of the basin and on the maturity of the Bahloul Formation source rock. The organic matter has reached different stages of thermal maturity, but delineate a general increasing maturity trend. Our study confirms that the J. Ech Cheid salt body have on the first hand: a huge influence on the local distribution of anoxic depocentre at least within Cenomanian-Turonian time. In the second hand, the thermal anomaly near the salt mass has affected the maturity of Bahloul Formation.

Keywords: Bahloul formation, depocentre, GC/MS, rock-eval

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: I. Made Gatot Karohika, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Ken Kaminishi, Oke Oktavianty, Didik Nurhadiyanto

Abstract:

Contact width and contact stress are important parameters related to the leakage behavior of corrugated metal gasket. In this study, contact width and contact stress of three-layer corrugated metal gasket are investigated due to the modulus of elasticity and thickness of surface layer for 2 type gasket (0-MPa and 400-MPa mode). A finite element method was employed to develop simulation solution to analysis the effect of each parameter. The result indicated that lowering the modulus of elasticity ratio of surface layer will result in better contact width but the average contact stresses are smaller. When the modulus of elasticity ratio is held constant with thickness ratio increase, its contact width has an increscent trend otherwise the average contact stress has decreased trend.

Keywords: contact width, contact stress, layer, metal gasket, corrugated, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Mahmoud Roushdi, Hany Mostafa, Khaled Kheireldin

Abstract:

Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor are promising and important economic regions in Egypt due to the unique location and development opportunities. Thus, the climate change impacts should be assessed over the mentioned area. Accordingly, this paper aims to assess the climate extreme indices in through the last 35 year over Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor in addition to predict the climate extreme indices up to 2100. Present and future climate indices were analyzed with using different RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 from 2010 until 2100 for Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor. Furthermore, both CanESM and HadGEM2 global circulation models were used. The results indicate that the number of summer days is predicted to increase, on the other hand the frost days is predicted to decrease. Moreover, it is noted a slight positive trend for the percentile of wet and extremely days R95p and R99p for RCP4.5 and negative trend for RCP8.5.

Keywords: climate change, extreme indices, RCP, Sinai Peninsula

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Abedalbasit M. Abedalhafiz, Aman Kasawneh, Zyad Altahynah, Ahmad Okor

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to determine the construct validity of the morale sprit scale (MSS). Ninety faculty members from colleges of physical education at Jordanian universities were chosen to participate in this study. The design of this study was an ex-post facto. The MSS consists of (48) items that measure different dimensions of morale spirit among faculty members. Principle axis factoring with oblique rotation was utilized to uncover the underlying structure of the instrument. The findings revealed eight factor solution explaining (72.825%). Seven factors were accepted according to the conditions of accepting factors. The seven factors were named morale as reflection of faculty and department's administration, regulations and instructions, working environment and conditions, promotions and incentives and salaries, relations between the faculty member's, the trend toward the college and university, the trend toward self factors.

Keywords: Factorial validity, morale sprit, faculty members, Jordanian Universities

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Farzad Shirzad, Bohlol Alijani, Mehry Akbary, Mohammad Saligheh

Abstract:

Climate change and global warming are very important issues today. The process of climate change, especially changes in temperature and precipitation, is the most important issue in the environmental sciences. Climate change means changing the averages in the long run. Iran is located in arid and semi-arid regions due to its proximity to the equator and its location in the subtropical high pressure zone. In this respect, the Hyrcanian forest is a green necklace between the Caspian Sea and the south of the Alborz mountain range. In the forty-third session of UNESCO, it was registered as the second natural heritage of Iran. Beech is one of the most important tree species and the most industrial species of Hyrcanian forests. In this research, using dendroclimatology, the width of the tree ring, and climatic data of temperature and precipitation from Shanderman meteorological station located in the study area, And non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical method to investigate the trend of climate change over a time series of 202 years of growth ringsAnd Pearson statistical method was used to correlate the growth of "ring" growth rings of beech trees with climatic variables in the region. The results obtained from the time series of beech growth rings showed that the changes in beech growth rings had a downward and negative trend and were significant at the level of 5% and climate change occurred. The average minimum, medium, and maximum temperatures and evaporation in the growing season had an increasing trend, and the annual precipitation had a decreasing trend. Using Pearson method during fitting the correlation of diameter of growth rings with temperature, for the average in July, August, and September, the correlation is negative, and the average temperature in July, August, and September is negative, and for the average The average maximum temperature in February was correlation-positive and at the level of 95% was significant, and with precipitation, in June the correlation was at the level of 95% positive and significant.

Keywords: climate change, dendroclimatology, hyrcanian forest, beech

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Mengdi Zhang, Xufeng Liu, Zhenji Gao, Ying Li, Zhu Rao, Yi Huang

Abstract:

As an open system, the earth is constantly undergoing the transformation and release of matter and energy. Fault zones are relatively discontinuous and fragile geological structures, and the release of material and energy inside the Earth is strongest in relatively weak fault zones. Earthquake events frequently occur in fault zones and are closely related to tectonic activity in these zones. In earthquake precursor observation, monitoring the spatiotemporal changes in the release of related gases near fault zones (such as radon gas, hydrogen, carbon dioxide, helium), and analyzing earthquake precursor anomalies, can be effective means to forecast the occurrence of earthquake events. Radon gas, as an inert radioactive gas generated during the decay of uranium and thorium, is not only a indicator for monitoring tectonic and seismic activity, but also an important topic for ecological and environmental health, playing a crucial role in uranium exploration. At present, research on soil radon gas mainly focuses on the measurement of soil gas concentration and flux in fault zone profiles, while research on the correlation between spatiotemporal concentration changes in the same region and its geological background is relatively little. In this paper, Tangshan area in north China is chosen as research area. An analysis was conducted on the seismic geological background of Tangshan area firstly. Then based on quantitative analysis and comparison of measurement radon concentrations of 2023 and 2010, combined with the study of seismic activity and environmental changes during the time period, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors were explored, in order to analyze the gas emission characteristics of the Tangshan fault zone and its relationship with fault activity, which aimed to be useful for the future work in earthquake monitor of Tangshan area.

Keywords: radon, Northern China, soil gas, earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Ahmed El-Ghorab

Abstract:

Indigenous foods are promising sources of various chemical bioactive compounds such as vitamins, phenolic compounds and carotenoids. Therefore, the presence o different bioactive compounds in fruits could be used to retard or prevent various diseases such as cardiovascular and cancer. This is an update report on nutritional compositions and health promoting phytochemicals of different indigenous food . This different type of fruits and/ or other sources such as spices, aromatic plants, grains by-products, which containing bioactive compounds might be used as functional foods or for nutraceutical purposes. most common bioactive compounds are vitamin C, polyphenol, β- carotene and lycopene contents. In recent years, there has been a global trend toward the use of natural phytochemical as antioxidants and functional ingredients, which are present in natural resources such as vegetables, fruits, oilseeds and herbs.. Our future trend the Use of Natural antioxidants as a promising alternative to use of synthetic antioxidants and the Production of natural antioxidant on commercial scale to maximize the value addition of indigenous food waste as a good source of bioactive compounds such as antioxidants.

Keywords: bioactive compounds, antioxidants, by-product, indigenous foods, phenolic compounds

Procedia PDF Downloads 440

Authors: Ebru Kaymaz, Aslı İlbay Hamamcı, Yakup Enes Garip, Samet Ay

Abstract:

The use of hydrogen as a fuel is important for decreasing carbon emissions. For the steel industry, reducing carbon emissions is one of the most important agendas of recent times globally. Because of the Paris Agreement requirements, European steel industry studies on green steel production. Although many literature reviews have analyzed this topic from technological and hydrogen based ironmaking, there are very few studies focused on patents of decarbonize parts of the steel industry. Hence, this study focus on technological progress of hydrogen based ironmaking and on understanding the main trends through patent data. All available patent data were collected from Questel Orbit. The trend analysis of more than 900 patent documents has been carried out by using Questel Orbit Intellixir to analyze a large number of data for scientific intelligence.

Keywords: hydrogen based ironmaking, DRI, direct reduction, carbon emission, steelmaking, patent analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Rideci Farias, Haroldo Paranhos

Abstract:

The present work deals with the use of drainage geo-composite as a deep drainage and geogrid element to reinforce the base of the body of the landfill destined to the road pavement on geological faults in the stretch of the TO-342 Highway, between the cities of Miracema and Miranorte, in the State of Tocantins / TO, Brazil, which for many years was the main link between TO-010 and BR-153, after the city of Palmas, also in the state of Tocantins / TO, Brazil. For this application, geotechnical and geological studies were carried out by means of SPT percussion drilling, drilling and rotary drilling, to understand the problem, identifying the type of faults, filling material and the definition of the water table. According to the geological and geotechnical studies carried out, the area where the route was defined, passes through a zone of longitudinal fault to the runway, with strong breaking / fracturing, with presence of voids, intense alteration and with advanced argilization of the rock and with the filling up parts of the faults by organic and compressible soils leachate from other horizons. This geology presents as a geotechnical aggravating agent a medium of high hydraulic load and very low resistance to penetration. For more than 20 years, the region presented constant excessive deformations in the upper layers of the pavement, which after routine services of regularization, reconformation, re-compaction of the layers and application of the asphalt coating. The faults were quickly propagated to the surface of the asphalt pavement, generating a longitudinal shear, forming steps (unevenness), close to 40 cm, causing numerous accidents and discomfort to the drivers, since the geometric positioning was in a horizontal curve. Several projects were presented to the region's highway department to solve the problem. Due to the need for partial closure of the runway, the short time for execution, the use of geosynthetics was proposed and the most adequate solution for the problem was taken into account the movement of existing geological faults and the position of the water level in relation to several Layers of pavement and failure. In order to avoid any flow of water in the body of the landfill and in the filling material of the faults, a drainage curtain solution was used, carried out at 4.0 meters depth, with drainage geo-composite and as reinforcement element and inhibitor of the possible A geogrid of 200 kN / m of resistance was inserted at the base of the reconstituted landfill. Recent evaluations, after 13 years of application of the solution, show the efficiency of the technique used, supported by the geotechnical studies carried out in the area.

Keywords: geosynthetics, geocomposite, geogrid, road, recovery, geological failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Irakli Gamkrelidze, David Shengelia, Giorgi Chichinadze, Tamara Tsutsunava, Giorgi Beridze, Tamara Tsamalashvili, Ketevan Tedliashvili, Irakli Javakhishvili

Abstract:

The Caucasus is situated between the Eurasian and Africa-Arabian plates and represents a component of the Mediterranean (Alpine-Himalayan) collision belt. The Loki crystalline massif crops out within one of the terranes of the Caucasus – Baiburt-Sevanian terrane. By the end of 2018, a digital geological map (1:50 000) of the Loki massif was compiled. The presented map is of great importance for the region since there is no large-scale geological map which reflects the present standards of the geological study of the massif up to the last time. The existing State Geological Map of the Loki massif is very outdated. A new map drown by using GIS (Geographic Information System) technology is loaded with multi-informative details that include: specified contours of geological units and separate tectonic scales, key mineral assemblages and facies of metamorphism, temperature conditions of metamorphism, ages of metamorphism events and the massif rocks, genetic-geodynamic types of magmatic rocks. Explanatory note, attached to the map includes the large specter of scientific information. It contains characterization of the geological setting, composition and petrogenetic and geodynamic models of the massif formation. To create a geological map of the Loki crystalline massif, appropriate methodologies were applied: a sampling of rocks, GIS technology-based mapping of geological units, microscopic description of the material, composition analysis of rocks, microprobe analysis of minerals and a new interpretation of obtained data. To prepare a digital version of the map the appropriated activities were held including the creation of a common database. Finally, the design was created that includes the elaboration of legend and the final visualization of the map. The results of the study presented in the explanatory note are given below. The autochthonous gneissose quartz diorites of normal alkalinity and sub-alkaline gabbro-diorites included in them belong to different phases of magmatism. They represent “igneous” granites corresponding to mixed mantle-crustal type granites. Four tectonic plates of the allochthonous metamorphic complex–Lower Gorastskali, Sapharlo–Lok-Jandari, Moshevani, and Lower Gorastskali differ from each other by structure and degree of metamorphism. The initial rocks of these plates are formed in different geodynamic conditions and during the Early Bretonian orogeny while overthrusting due to tectonic compression they form a thick tectonic sheet. The Lower Gorastskali overthrust sheet is a fragment of ophiolitic association corresponding to the Paleotethys oceanic crust. The protolith of the ophiolitic complex basites corresponds to the tholeiitic series of basalts. The Sapharlo–Lok-Jandari overthrust sheet is metapelites, metamorphosed in conditions of greenschist facies of regional metamorphism. The regional metamorphism of Moshevani overthrust sheet crystalline schists quartzites corresponds to a range from greenschist to hornfels facies. The “mélange” is built of rock fragments and blocks of above-mentioned overthrust sheets. Sub-alkaline and normal alkaline post-metamorphic granites of the Loki crystalline massif belong to “igneous” and rarely to “sialic” and “anorogenic” types of granites.

Keywords: digital geological map, 1:50 000 scale, crystalline massif, the caucasus

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Marco Cifrodelli, Corrado Corradini

Abstract:

The trend of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfalls seems to be different depending on the investigated area of the world. In this work, the impact of climate change on extreme rainfalls in Umbria, an inland region of central Italy, is examined using data recorded during the period 1921-2015 by 10 representative rain gauge stations. The study area is characterized by a complex orography, with altitude ranging from 200 to more than 2000 m asl. The climate is very different from zone to zone, with mean annual rainfall ranging from 650 to 1450 mm and mean annual air temperature from 3.3 to 14.2°C. Over the past 15 years, this region has been affected by four significant droughts as well as by six dangerous flood events, all with very large impact in economic terms. A least-squares linear trend analysis of annual maximums over 60 time series selected considering 6 different durations (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 48 h) showed about 50% of positive and 50% of negative cases. For the same time series the non-parametrical Mann-Kendall test with a significance level 0.05 evidenced only 3% of cases characterized by a negative trend and no positive case. Further investigations have also demonstrated that the variance and covariance of each time series can be considered almost stationary. Therefore, the analysis on the magnitude of extreme rainfalls supplies the indication that an evident trend in the change of values in the Umbria region does not exist. However, also the frequency of rainfall events, with particularly high rainfall depths values, occurred during a fixed period has also to be considered. For all selected stations the 2-day rainfall events that exceed 50 mm were counted for each year, starting from the first monitored year to the end of 2015. Also, this analysis did not show predominant trends. Specifically, for all selected rain gauge stations the annual number of 2-day rainfall events that exceed the threshold value (50 mm) was slowly decreasing in time, while the annual cumulated rainfall depths corresponding to the same events evidenced trends that were not statistically significant. Overall, by using a wide available dataset and adopting simple methods, the influence of climate change on the heavy rainfalls in the Umbria region is not detected.

Keywords: climate changes, rainfall extremes, rainfall magnitude and frequency, central Italy

Procedia PDF Downloads 209

Authors: Xin Chen

Abstract:

Pre-industrial old-world human cultural diversity and societal complexity exhibits remarkable geographic regularities. Along the latitudinal axis from the equator to the arctic, a descending trend of human ethno-cultural diversity is found to be in coincidence with a descending trend of biological diversity. Along the same latitudinal axis, the pre-industrial human societal complexity shows to peak at the intermediate latitude. It is postulated that human cultural diversity and societal complexity are strongly influenced by collective learning, and that collective learning is positively related to human population size, social interactions, and environmental challenges. Under such postulations the relationship between collective learning and important geographical-environmental factors, including climate and biodiversity/bio-productivity is examined. A hypothesis of intermediate bio-productivity is formulated to account for those latitudinal patterns of pre-industrial human societal complexity.

Keywords: cultural diversity, soetal complexity, latitudinal patterns, biodiversity, bio-productivity, collective learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Sakineh Nouri Saeidlou, Fatemeh Rezaiegoyjeloo, Parvin Ayremlou, Fariba Babaie

Abstract:

Introduction: Childhood overweight and obesity is a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. Overweight and obesity in children may have severe consequences later in adolescence and adulthood. The aim of current study was to determine the prevalence trend of overweight and obesity in school-aged children from 2009 to 2011. Methods: The present study was a population-based study and conducted in three consecutive years, from 2009 to 2011. The study population included all of primary, secondary and high school children in rural and urban regions of West Azarbijan province in West-North of Iran. Body mass index (BMI), the ratio of weight to height squared [weight (kg)]/ [height (m)]2, was calculated to the nearest decimal place. Overweight and obesity were classified using CDC recommendations for age and sex: a BMI 85th–95th percentile was classified as overweight and a BMI>95th percentile was classified as obese. All statistical analyses were performed using the Excel Software. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample in different time periods. The prevalence was calculated as the ratio of number present cases to a given population number in a given subgroup at a given time. Results: Overall, 165740, 145146 and 146203 school children were assessed at 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively. Prevalence of overweight in primary school children among girls were 52.83, 86.93 and 116.36 and for boys were 57.07, 53.4 and 93.55 per 1000 person in 2009, 2010 and 2011 years ,respectively. The prevalence of obesity in secondary school children for girls were 22.26, 27.75 and 28.43 and 26.52, 25.72 and 35.85 for boys per 1000 person in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively, The highest prevalence of overweight was 77.58, 142.4 and 126.46 per 1000 person among primary, secondary and high school children, respectively, in 2011. The lowest prevalence of obesity was 12.52, 24.1 and 21.61 per 1000 person among primary, secondary and high school children, respectively, in 2009. Conclusion: However, the rapid increase in both obesity and overweight should have a special attention. Research on prevalence trend of overweight and obesity in children is poorly reported in Iran. So that, future studies need to follow-up on the associations between overweight and obesity with health outcomes when children develop and reach adolescence and adulthood.

Keywords: overweight, obesity, school children, prevalence trend, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Ben Nwokenkwo, Michael M. Eze, Felix Ike

Abstract:

The need to study trends in land values around institutions of higher learning cannot be overemphasized. Numerous studies in Nigeria have investigated the economic, and social influence of the sitting of institutions of higher learning at the micro, meso and macro levels. However, very few studies have evaluated the temporal extent at which such institution influences local land values. Since institutions greatly influence both the physical and environmental aspects of their immediate vicinity, attention must be taken to understand the influence of such changes on land values. This study examines the trend in land values using the Mann-Kendall analysis in order to determine if, between its beginning and end, a monotonic increase, decrease or stability exist in the land values across six institutions of higher learning for the period between 2004 and 2014. Specifically, The analysis was applied to the time series of the price(or value) of the land .The results of this study revealed that land values has either been increasing or remained stabled across all the institution sampled. The study finally recommends measures that can be put in place as counter magnets for land values estimation across institutions of higher learning.

Keywords: influence, land, trend, value

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

Abstract:

In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC). By considering two sets of data (raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data, while in the simulated data the return values show an increasing trend with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend with an upper bound. This clearly shows that although temperatures in the tropics show a sign of increase in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedance. The results of this paper are very vital in agricultural and environmental research.

Keywords: forecasting, generalized extreme value (GEV), meteorology, return level

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Christopher Baiyegunhi, Oswald Gwavava

Abstract:

The location/source of the Beattie magnetic anomaly (BMA) and interconnectivity of geologic structures at depth have been a topic of investigation for over 30 years. Up to now, no relationship between geological structures (interconnectivity of dolerite intrusions) at depth has been established. Therefore, the environmental impact of fracking the Karoo for shale gas could not be assessed despite the fact that dolerite dykes are groundwater localizers in the Karoo. In this paper, we shed more light to the unanswered questions concerning the possible location of the source of the BMA, the connectivity of geologic structures like dolerite dykes and sills at depth and this relationship needs to be established before the tectonic evolution of the Karoo basin can be fully understood and related to fracking of the Karoo for shale gas. The result of the magnetic investigation and modelling of four gravity profiles that crosses the BMA in the study area reveals that the anomaly, which is part of the Beattie magnetic anomaly tends to divide into two anomalies and continue to trend in an NE-SW direction, the dominant gravity signatures is of long wavelength that is due to a deep source/interface inland and shallows towards the coast, the average depth to the top of the shallow and deep magnetic sources was estimated to be approximately 0.6 km and 15 km, respectively. The BMA become stronger with depth which could be an indication that the source(s) is deep possibly a buried body in the basement. The bean-shaped anomaly also behaves in a similar manner like the BMA thus it could possibly share the same source(s) with the BMA.

Keywords: Beattie magnetic anomaly, magnetic sources, modelling, Karoo Basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 523

Authors: Rameh Chauhan

Abstract:

Tunnel construction in Himalayan rock is a challenging task due to fragile nature of the strata. Tunnel excavation carried out from lower Himalayas to high Himalayas in different metamorphic rock. Therefore application of engineering geology plays a vital role during various stage of the tunneling projects. Engineering geology is defined as application of geology to construction of civil structures through engineering practice. It is applied to the design, construction and performance aspects of engineering structure on the surface or sub-surface like dam, underground and surface power house, cut slopes, tunnels and underground storage cavern for nuclear material. But this paper emphasized mostly on underground structures like big caverns of Power house, desilting chambers, and tunnels of various sizes. Construction of these structures in the fragile rock conditions of Himalayan geology from Western Himalayas to Eastern Himalayas necessitated the application of the engineering geology on the micro-scale base for the stability, performance, and longevity of the civil structures. Number of hydropower projects have been constructed, some of them are under construction and under investigation stage. These projects are located in various parts of Himalayas under various seismic-tectonic zones. Tunneling works are involved in these projects. This paper represents the various engineering geological practices adopted in investigation and construction stage of various projects based on experiences gained during past construction histories in Himalayan geology of young mountains in very fragile geological conditions. Highlighting and sharing of use of these techniques on various platforms will definitely enhance the knowledge for carrying out the construction of various projects for the development of society. Construction of the tunnels, surface, and sub-surface caverns, dams, highway, metro, highway tunnels are all based on engineering geological parameters in combinations with other engineering considerations.

Keywords: cavern-power house, desilting chambers and tunnels, seismic-tectonic-zones, earthquake-prone zones based on intensities

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Asharaf Abdul Salam

Abstract:

Arabian Gulf countries have norms and rules different from others: having an exodus of male immigrant labor contract holders of age 20-60 years as a floating population. Such a demographic scenario camouflages population ageing. However, it is observed on examining vigilantly, not only in the native population but also in the general population. This research on population ageing in the Arabian Gulf examines ageing scenario and concerns through analyses of international databases (US Census Bureau and United Nations) and national level databases (Censuses and Surveys) apart from a review of published research. Transitions in demography and epidemiology lead to gains in life expectancy and thereby reductions in fertility, leading to ageing of the population in the region. Even after bringing adult immigrants, indices and age pyramids show an increasing ageing trend in the total population, demonstrating an ageing workforce. Besides, the exclusive native population analysis reveals a trend of expansive pyramids (pre-transitional stage) turning to constrictive (transition stage) and cylindrical (post-transition stage) shapes. Age-based indices such as the index of ageing, age dependency ratio, and median age confirm this trend. While the feminine nature of ageing is vivid, gains in life expectancy and causes of death in old age, indicating co-morbidity compression, are concerns to ageing. Preparations are in demand to cope with ageing from different dimensions, as explained in the United Nations Plans of Action. A strategy of strengthening informal care with supportive semi-formal and supplementary formal care networks would alleviate this crisis associated with population ageing.

Keywords: total versus native population, indices of ageing, age pyramids, feminine nature, comorbidity compression, strategic interventions

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: John Christian Lequiron, Gerry Bagtasa, Olivia Cabrera, Leoncio Amadore, Tolentino Moya

Abstract:

Changes in air surface temperature play an important role in the Philippine’s economy, industry, health, and food production. While increasing global mean temperature in the recent several decades has prompted a number of climate change and variability studies in the Philippines, most studies still focus on rainfall and tropical cyclones. This study aims to investigate the trend and variability of observed air surface temperature and determine its major influencing factor/s in the Philippines. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to monthly mean temperature of 17 synoptic stations covering 56 years from 1960 to 2015 and a mean change of 0.58 °C or a positive trend of 0.0105 °C/year (p < 0.05) was found. In addition, wavelet decomposition was used to determine the frequency of temperature variability show a 12-month, 30-80-month and more than 120-month cycles. This indicates strong annual variations, interannual variations that coincide with ENSO events, and interdecadal variations that are attributed to PDO and CO2 concentrations. Air surface temperature was also correlated with smoothed sunspot number and galactic cosmic rays, the results show a low to no effect. The influence of ENSO teleconnection on temperature, wind pattern, cloud cover, and outgoing longwave radiation on different ENSO phases had significant effects on regional temperature variability. Particularly, an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow east of the Philippines during the peak and decay phase of El Niño (La Niña) events leads to the advection of warm southeasterly (cold northeasterly) air mass over the country. Furthermore, an apparent increasing cloud cover trend is observed over the West Philippine Sea including portions of the Philippines, and this is believed to lessen the effect of the increasing air surface temperature. However, relative humidity was also found to be increasing especially on the central part of the country, which results in a high positive trend of heat index, exacerbating the effects on human discomfort. Finally, an assessment of gridded temperature datasets was done to look at the viability of using three high-resolution datasets in future climate analysis and model calibration and verification. Several error statistics (i.e. Pearson correlation, Bias, MAE, and RMSE) were used for this validation. Results show that gridded temperature datasets generally follows the observed surface temperature change and anomalies. In addition, it is more representative of regional temperature rather than a substitute to station-observed air temperature.

Keywords: air surface temperature, carbon dioxide, ENSO, galactic cosmic rays, smoothed sunspot number

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Mohammed Mustapha Alhaji, Sadiku Salawu

Abstract:

A clay soil which classified under A-7-6 soil according to AASHTO soil classification system and CH according to the unified soil classification system was stabilized using A-3 soil (AASHTO soil classification system). The clay soil was replaced with 0%, 10%, 20% to 100% A-3 soil, compacted at both the BSL and BSH compaction energy level and using unconfined compressive strength as evaluation criteria. The MDD of the compactions at both the BSL and BSH compaction energy levels showed increase in MDD from 0% A-3 soil replacement to 40% A-3 soil replacement after which the values reduced to 100% A-3 soil replacement. The trend of the OMC with varied A-3 soil replacement is similar to that of MDD but in a reversed order. The OMC reduced from 0% A-3 soil replacement to 40% A-3 soil replacement after which the values increased to 100% A-3 soil replacement. This trend was attributed to the observed reduction in the void ratio from 0% A-3 soil replacement to 40% A-3 soil replacement after which the void ratio increased to 100% A-3 soil replacement. The maximum UCS for clay at varied A-3 soil replacement increased from 272 and 770kN/m2 for BSL and BSH compaction energy level at 0% A-3 soil replacement to 295 and 795kN/m2 for BSL and BSH compaction energy level respectively at 10% A-3 soil replacement after which the values reduced to 22 and 60kN/m2 for BSL and BSH compaction energy level respectively at 70% A-3 soil replacement. Beyond 70% A-3 soil replacement, the mixture cannot be moulded for UCS test.

Keywords: A-3 soil, clay minerals, pozzolanic action, stabilization

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: R. Morbidelli, C. Saltalippi, A. Flammini, A. Garcia-Marin, J. L. Ayuso-Munoz

Abstract:

The climate change, mainly due to greenhouse gas emissions associated to human activities, has been modifying hydrologic processes with a direct effect on air surface temperature that has significantly increased in the last century at global scale. In this context the Mediterranean area is considered to be particularly sensitive to the climate change impacts on temperature indices. An analysis finalized to study the evolution of temperature indices and to check the existence of significant trends in the Umbria Region (Italy) is presented. Temperature data were obtained by seven meteorological stations uniformly distributed in the study area and characterized by very long series of temperature observations (at least 60 years) spanning the 1924-2015 period. A set of 39 temperature indices represented by monthly and annual mean, average maximum and average minimum temperatures, has been derived. The trend analysis was realized by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, while the non-parametric Pettit test and the parametric Standard Normal Homogeneity test (SNHT) were used to check the presence of breakpoints or in-homogeneities due to environmental changes/anthropic activity or climate change effects. The Umbria region, in agreement with other recent studies exploring the temperature behavior in Italy, shows a general increase in all temperature indices, with the only exception of Gubbio site that exhibits very light negative trends or absence of trend. The presence of break points and in-homogeneity was widely explored through the selected tests and the results were checked on the basis of the well-known metadata of the meteorological stations.

Keywords: reception theory, reading, literary translation, horizons of expectation, reader

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Shayla He

Abstract:

Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Jaithish John

Abstract:

In this paper a brief overview is provided of the developments in interdisciplinary knowledge exchange with use of soil and geological (earth) materials in the search for evidence. The aim is to provide background information on the role and value of understanding ‘earth materials’ from the crime scene through to microscopic scale investigations to support law enforcement agencies in solving criminal and environmental concerns and investigations. This involves the sampling, analysis, interpretation and explanation presentation of all these evidences. In this context, field and laboratory methods are highlighted for the controlled / referenced sample, alibi sample and questioned sample. The aim of forensic analyses of earth materials is to associate these samples taken from a questioned source to determine if there are similar and outstanding characteristics features of earth materials crucial to support the investigation to the questioned earth materials and compare it to the controlled / referenced sample and alibi samples.

Keywords: soil, texture, grain, microscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Riccardo Pasquali, Keith Harlin, Mark Muller

Abstract:

The ShallowTherm project is focussed on developing and applying a methodology for extrapolating relatively sparsely sampled thermal conductivity measurements across Ireland using mapped Litho-Electrical (LE) units. The primary data used consist of electrical resistivities derived from the Geological Survey Ireland Tellus airborne electromagnetic dataset, GIS-based maps of Irish geology, and rock thermal conductivities derived from both the current Irish Ground Thermal Properties (IGTP) database and a new programme of sampling and laboratory measurement. The workflow has been developed across three case-study areas that sample a range of different calcareous, arenaceous, argillaceous, and volcanic lithologies. Statistical analysis of resistivity data from individual geological formations has been assessed and integrated with detailed lithological descriptions to define distinct LE units. Thermal conductivity measurements from core and hand samples have been acquired for every geological formation within each study area. The variability and consistency of thermal conductivity measurements within each LE unit is examined with the aim of defining a characteristic thermal conductivity (or range of thermal conductivities) for each LE unit. Mapping of LE units, coupled with characteristic thermal conductivities, provides a method of defining thermal conductivity properties at a regional scale and facilitating the design of ground source heat pump closed-loop collectors.

Keywords: thermal conductivity, ground source heat pumps, resistivity, heat exchange, shallow geothermal, Ireland

Procedia PDF Downloads 144