Search results for: exponential smoothing method

Authors: Taiyo Matsumura, Kuninori Takahashi, Takashi Ono

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The purpose of this research is to improve the convenience of waiting for trains at level crossings and stations and to prevent accidents resulting from forcible entry into level crossings, by providing level crossing users and passengers with information that tells them when the next train will pass through or arrive. For this paper, we proposed methods for estimating operation by means of an average value method, variable response smoothing method, and exponential smoothing method, on the basis of open data, which has low accuracy, but for which performance schedules are distributed in real time. We then examined the accuracy of the estimations. The results showed that the application of an exponential smoothing method is valid.

Keywords: exponential smoothing method, open data, operation estimation, train schedule

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Messis A., Adjebli A., Ayeche R., Talbi M., Tighilet K., Louardiane M.

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Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and modeling the evolution of breast, Colorectal, Lung, Bladder and Prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

Keywords: cancer, time series, prediction, double exponential smoothing

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

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During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.

Keywords: tourism, statistical methods, exponential smoothing, land spatial planning, economy

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: N. Sopipan

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In this paper, we study of rainfall time series of weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand using various statistical methods enabled to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. ARIMA and Holt-Winter models based on exponential smoothing were built. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore, could give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for proper planning of agriculture, drainage system and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We found the best perform for forecasting is ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, exponential smoothing, Holt-Winter model

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Authors: Apedzan Emmanuel Kighir

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This research investigates dividends smoothing among non-financial companies trading on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in an era of unclaimed dividends from 2004 to 2013. There has been a raging controversy among Regulatory Authorities, Company Executives, Registrars of Companies, Shareholders and the general public regarding the increasing incidence of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to find out if corporate earnings management through dividends smoothing is implicated in unclaimed dividends among Nigerian non-financial firms. The research used panel data and employed Generalized Method of Moment as method of analysis. The research finds evidence of dividends-smoothing in this era of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The research concludes that dividends-smoothing is a trigger and red flag for unclaimed dividends, an output of earnings management. If earnings management and hence unclaimed dividends in Nigeria is allowed to continue, it will lead to great consequences to the investors and corporate policy of government. It is believed that the research will assist investors and government in making informed decisions regarding dividends policy in Nigeria.

Keywords: dividends smoothing, non financial companies, Nigerian stock exchange, unclaimed dividends, corporate earnings management

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Authors: Feddaoui Amina

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Income smoothing represents an attempt on the part of the company's management to reduce variations in earnings through the manipulation of the accounting principles. In this study, we aimed to measure income smoothing practices in a sample of 30 French joint stock companies during the period (2007-2009), we used Dummy variables method and “ECKEL” model to measure income smoothing practices and Binomial test accourding to SPSS program, to confirm or refute our hypothesis. This study concluded that there are no significant statistical indicators of income smoothing practices in the sample studied of French companies during the period (2007-2009), so the income series in the same sample studied of is characterized by stability and non-volatility without any intervention of management through accounting manipulation. However, this type of accounting manipulation should be taken into account and efforts should be made by control bodies to apply Eckel model and generalize its use at the global level.

Keywords: income, smoothing, 'Eckel', French companies

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Authors: Adilson Elias Xavier, Otto Corrêa Rotunno Filho, Paulo Canedo De Magalhães

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This paper addresses the issue of automatic parameter estimation in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models. Due to threshold structures commonly occurring in CRR models, the associated mathematical optimization problems have the significant characteristic of being strongly non-differentiable. In order to face this enormous task, the resolution method proposed adopts a smoothing strategy using a special C∞ differentiable class function. The final estimation solution is obtained by solving a sequence of differentiable subproblems which gradually approach the original conceptual problem. The use of this technique, called Hyperbolic Smoothing Method (HSM), makes possible the application of the most powerful minimization algorithms, and also allows for the main difficulties presented by the original CRR problem to be overcome. A set of computational experiments is presented for the purpose of illustrating both the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff models, automatic calibration, hyperbolic smoothing method

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Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

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Authors: Cletus Abhulimen, L. A. Ukpebor

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In this paper, we construct a class of four-step third derivative exponential fitting integrator of order six for the numerical integration of stiff initial-value problems of the type: y’= f(x,y); y(x₀) =y₀. The implicit method has free parameters which allow it to be fitted automatically to exponential functions. For the purpose of effective implementation of the proposed method, we adopted the techniques of splitting the method into predictor and corrector schemes. The numerical analysis of the stability of the new method was discussed; the results show that the method is A-stable. Finally, numerical examples are presented, to show the efficiency and accuracy of the new method.

Keywords: third derivative four-step, exponentially fitted, a-stable, stiff differential equations

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Authors: Fatma Ezzahra Kateb, Neila Boulila Taktak, Mohamed Kabir Hassan

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We examine the impact of Islamic accounting and auditing standards issued by the Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) on the income smoothing perspective of Islamic financial institutions located in the Middle East and North Africa region between 2013 and 2018. Based on General Least square regression for panel data, we find a significant and positive relationship between intentional income smoothing and earning persistence and cash flow predictability in all models. However, we discovered that AAOIFI accounting standards (FAS) had a negative and significant effect on intentional income smoothing and earning persistence. As a result, the income smoothing efficiency is lower for IFIs that use FASs than IFIs that use IFRSs. Our findings emphasize the need for specific standards to enhance the relevance of financial reports disclosed by Islamic financial institutions.

Keywords: AAOIFI, financial reporting quality, income smoothing perspective, MENA countries

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Authors: Fahrudin Nugroho, Halim Hamadi, Yusril Yusuf, Pekik Nurwantoro, Ari Setiawan, Yoshiki Hidaka

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We investigate the Nikolaevskiy equation numerically using exponential time differencing method and pseudo-spectral method. This equation develops a long-wavelength modulation that behaves as a Nambu–Goldstone mode, and short-wavelength instability and exhibit turbulence. Using the autocorrelation analysis, the statistical properties of the turbulence governed by the equation are investigated. The autocorrelation then has been fitted with The Kohlrausch– Williams–Watts (KWW) expression. By varying the control parameter, we show a transition from compressed to stretched exponential for the auto-correlation function of Nikolaevskiy turbulence. The compressed exponential is an indicator of the existence of dynamical heterogeneity while the stretched indicates aging process. Thereby, we revealed the existence of dynamical heterogeneity and aging in the turbulence governed by Nikolaevskiy equation.

Keywords: compressed exponential, dynamical heterogeneity, Nikolaevskiy equation, stretched exponential, turbulence

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Authors: Fakhreddin Abedi, Wah June Leong

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Exponential stability of stochastic differential equations with non trivial solutions is provided in terms of Lyapunov functions. The main result of this paper establishes that, under certain hypotheses for the dynamics f(.) and g(.), practical exponential stability in probability at the small neighborhood of the origin is equivalent to the existence of an appropriate Lyapunov function. Indeed, we establish exponential stability of stochastic differential equation when almost all the state trajectories are bounded and approach a sufficiently small neighborhood of the origin. We derive sufficient conditions for exponential stability of stochastic differential equations. Finally, we give a numerical example illustrating our results.

Keywords: exponential stability in probability, stochastic differential equations, Lyapunov technique, Ito's formula

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Authors: Yu Zhang, Kohei Inoue, Kiichi Urahama

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We propose a simplified bilateral filter with binarized coefficients for accelerating it. Its computational cost is further decreased by sampling pixels. This computationally low cost filter is useful for smoothing or denoising images by using mobile devices with limited computational power.

Keywords: bilateral filter, binarized-weight bilateral filter, image smoothing, image denoising, pixel sampling

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Authors: Diqin Qi, Jiaming Li, Siman Li

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Based on the use of the three-point smoothing method for selectively processing original data columns, this paper establishes a group of grey GM(1,1) models to predict the concentration ranges of four major air pollutants in Shanghai from 2023 to 2024. The results indicate that PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO₂ maintain the national Grade I standards, while the concentration of PM₂.₅ has decreased but still remains within the national Grade II standards. Combining the forecast results, recommendations are provided for the Shanghai municipal government's efforts in air pollution prevention and control.

Keywords: atmospheric pollutant prediction, Grey GM(1, 1), model group, three-point smoothing method

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Authors: Daoudi Abdelaziz, Mahmoudi Saïd, Chikh Mohamed Amine

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This paper presents a fully automatic segmentation method of the left ventricle at End Systolic (ES) and End Diastolic (ED) in the ultrasound images by means of an implicit deformable model (level set) based on Geodesic Active Contour model. A pre-processing Gaussian smoothing stage is applied to the image, which is essential for a good segmentation. Before the segmentation phase, we locate automatically the area of the left ventricle by using a detection approach based on the Hough Transform method. Consequently, the result obtained is used to automate the initialization of the level set model. This initial curve (zero level set) deforms to search the Endocardial border in the image. On the other hand, quantitative evaluation was performed on a data set composed of 15 subjects with a comparison to ground truth (manual segmentation).

Keywords: level set method, transform Hough, Gaussian smoothing, left ventricle, ultrasound images.

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Authors: Liang Liu, Xiaopeng Luo

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In this paper, we propose an accelerated stochastic gradient method with momentum. The momentum term is the weighted average of generated gradients, and the weights decay inverse proportionally with the iteration times. Stochastic gradient descent with momentum (SGDM) uses weights that decay exponentially with the iteration times to generate the momentum term. Using exponential decay weights, variants of SGDM with inexplicable and complicated formats have been proposed to achieve better performance. However, the momentum update rules of our method are as simple as that of SGDM. We provide theoretical convergence analyses, which show both the exponential decay weights and our inverse proportional decay weights can limit the variance of the parameter moving directly to a region. Experimental results show that our method works well with many practical problems and outperforms SGDM.

Keywords: exponential decay rate weight, gradient descent, inverse proportional decay rate weight, momentum

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Authors: Waheed Zahra, Mohamed El-Beltagy, Ashraf El Mhlawy, Reda Elkhadrawy

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In this paper, we consider singular perturbation reaction-diffusion boundary value problems, which contain a small uncertain perturbation parameter. To solve these problems, we propose a numerical method which is based on an exponential spline and Shishkin mesh discretization. While interval analysis principle is used to deal with the uncertain parameter, sensitivity analysis has been conducted using different methods. Numerical results are provided to show the applicability and efficiency of our method, which is ε-uniform convergence of almost second order.

Keywords: singular perturbation problem, shishkin mesh, two small parameters, exponential spline, interval analysis, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: D. Prangchumpol

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This research presents a forecasting method of requisition document demands for Military units by using Exponential Smoothing methods to analyze data. The data used in the forecast is an actual data requisition document of The Adjutant General Department. The results of the forecasting model to forecast the requisition of the document found that Holt–Winters’ trend and seasonality method of α=0.1, β=0, γ=0 is appropriate and matches for requisition of documents. In addition, the researcher has developed a requisition online system to improve the performance of requisition documents of The Adjutant General Department, and also ensuring that the operation can be checked.

Keywords: requisition, holt–winters, time series, royal thai army

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Authors: Mounir Belattar

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In this paper the Analysis of voltage waves that propagate along a lossless exponential nonuniform line is presented. For this analysis the parameters of this line are assumed to be varying function of the distance x along the line from the source end. The approach is based on the tow-port networks cascading presentation to derive the ABDC parameters of transmission using Picard-Carson Method which is a powerful method in getting a power series solution for distributed network because it is easy to calculate poles and zeros and solves differential equations such as telegrapher equations by an iterative sequence. So the impedance, admittance voltage and current along the line are expanded as a Taylor series in x/l where l is the total length of the line to obtain at the end, the main transmission line parameters such as voltage response and transmission and reflexion coefficients represented by scattering parameters in frequency domain.

Keywords: ABCD parameters, characteristic impedance exponential nonuniform transmission line, Picard-Carson's method, S parameters, Taylor's series

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

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This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

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Authors: W. K. Zahra, M. A. El-Beltagy, R. R. Elkhadrawy

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So many practical problems in science and technology developed over the past decays. For instance, the mathematical boundary layer theory or the approximation of solution for different problems described by differential equations. When such problems consider large or small parameters, they become increasingly complex and therefore require the use of asymptotic methods. In this work, we consider the singularly perturbed boundary value problems which contain very small parameters. Moreover, we will consider these perturbation parameters as random variables. We propose a numerical method to solve this kind of problems. The proposed method is based on an exponential spline, Shishkin mesh discretization, and polynomial chaos expansion. The polynomial chaos expansion is used to handle the randomness exist in the perturbation parameter. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) are used to validate the solution and the accuracy of the proposed method. Numerical results are provided to show the applicability and efficiency of the proposed method, which maintains a very remarkable high accuracy and it is ε-uniform convergence of almost second order.

Keywords: singular perturbation problem, polynomial chaos expansion, Shishkin mesh, two small parameters, exponential spline

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Authors: Grienggrai Rajchakit

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This paper is concerned with the exponential stability of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays. The time delay is any continuous function belonging to a given interval, in which the lower bound of delay is not restricted to zero. By constructing a suitable augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional combined with Leibniz-Newton's formula, a switching rule for the exponential stability of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays and new delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the exponential stability of the systems are first established in terms of LMIs. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: exponential stability, hybrid systems, time-varying delays, lyapunov-krasovskii functional, leibniz-newton's formula

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Authors: Md. Rashidul Hasan, Atikur Rahman Baizid

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The Bayesian estimation approach is a non-classical estimation technique in statistical inference and is very useful in real world situation. The aim of this paper is to study the Bayes estimators of the parameter of exponential distribution under different loss functions and then compared among them as well as with the classical estimator named maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In our real life, we always try to minimize the loss and we also want to gather some prior information (distribution) about the problem to solve it accurately. Here the gamma prior is used as the prior distribution of exponential distribution for finding the Bayes estimator. In our study, we also used different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions such as squared error loss function, quadratic loss function, modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function and non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function. Finally, mean square error (MSE) of the estimators are obtained and then presented graphically.

Keywords: Bayes estimator, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function, Squared Error (SE) loss function, non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function

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Authors: Ayman Baklizi

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Based on type II censored data, we consider interval estimation of the quantiles of the two-parameter exponential distribution and the difference between the quantiles of two independent two-parameter exponential distributions. We derive asymptotic intervals, Bayesian, as well as intervals based on the generalized pivot variable. We also include some bootstrap intervals in our comparisons. The performance of these intervals is investigated in terms of their coverage probabilities and expected lengths.

Keywords: asymptotic intervals, Bayes intervals, bootstrap, generalized pivot variables, two-parameter exponential distribution, quantiles

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Authors: Semra Turkan

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In this paper, we have examined the factors that affect the productivity of Turkey’s Top 500 Industrial Enterprises in 2014. The labor productivity of enterprises is taken as an indicator of productivity of industrial enterprises. When the relationships between some financial ratios and labor productivity, it is seen that there is a nonparametric relationship between labor productivity and return on sales. In addition, the distribution of labor productivity of enterprises is right-skewed. If the dependent distribution is skewed, the quantile regression is more suitable for this data. Hence, the nonparametric relationship between labor productivity and return on sales by quantile smoothing splines.

Keywords: quantile regression, smoothing spline, labor productivity, financial ratios

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Authors: V. Vargas-Alejo, L. E. Montero-Moguel

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Understanding the concept of function has been important in mathematics education for many years. In this study, the models built by a group of five business administration and accounting undergraduate students when carrying out a population growth activity are analyzed. The theoretical framework is the Models and Modeling Perspective. The results show how the students included tables, graphics, and algebraic representations in their models. Using technology was useful to interpret, describe, and predict the situation. The first model, the students built to describe the situation, was linear. After that, they modified and refined their ways of thinking; finally, they created exponential growth. Modeling the activity was useful to deep on mathematical concepts such as covariation, rate of change, and exponential function also to differentiate between linear and exponential growth.

Keywords: covariation reasoning, exponential function, modeling, representations

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