Search results for: fuzzy models

Authors: Nadine Yehya, Chantal Maatouk

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Low energy buildings have been developed to achieve global climate commitments in reducing energy consumption. They comprise energy efficient buildings, zero energy buildings, positive buildings and passive house buildings. The reduced energy demands in Low Energy buildings call for advanced building energy modeling that focuses on studying active building systems such as heating, cooling and ventilation, improvement of systems performances, and development of control systems. Modeling and building simulation have expanded to cover different modeling approach i.e.: detailed physical model, dynamic empirical models, and hybrid approaches, which are adopted by various simulation tools. This paper uses DesignBuilder with EnergyPlus simulation engine in order to; First, study the impact of efficiency measures on building energy behavior by comparing Low energy residential model to a conventional one in Beirut-Lebanon. Second, choose the appropriate energy systems for the studied case characterized by an important cooling demand. Third, study dynamic modeling of Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) system in EnergyPlus that is chosen due to its advantages over other systems and its availability in the Lebanese market. Finally, simulation of different energy systems models with different modeling approaches is necessary to confront the different modeling approaches and to investigate the interaction between energy systems and building envelope that affects the total energy consumption of Low Energy buildings.

Keywords: physical model, variable refrigerant flow heat pump, dynamic modeling, EnergyPlus, the modeling approach

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Authors: Mehdi Habibnia Rami, Shidvash Vakilipour, Mohammad H. Sabour, Rouzbeh Riazi, Hossein Hassannia

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This paper deals with the steady and unsteady flow behavior on the separation bubble occurring on the rear portion of the suction side of T106A blade. The first phase was to implement the steady condition capturing the separation bubble. To accurately predict the separated region, the effects of three different turbulence models and computational grids were separately investigated. The results of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model on the finest grid structure are acceptably in a good agreement with its relevant experimental results. The second phase is mainly to address the effects of wake entrance on bubble disappearance in unsteady situation. In the current simulations, from what was suggested in an experiment, simulating the flow unsteadiness, with concentrations on small scale disturbances instead of simulating a complete oncoming wake, is the key issue. Subsequently, the results from the current strategy to apply the effects of the wake and two other experimental work were compared to be in a good agreement. Between the two experiments, one of them deals with wake passing unsteady flow, and the other one implements experimentally the same approach as the current Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation.

Keywords: low-pressure turbine cascade, large-Eddy simulation (LES), RANS turbulence models, unsteady flow measurements, flow separation

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Authors: Yash Bingi, Yiqiao Yin

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Reduction of child mortality is an ongoing struggle and a commonly used factor in determining progress in the medical field. The under-5 mortality number is around 5 million around the world, with many of the deaths being preventable. In light of this issue, Cardiotocograms (CTGs) have emerged as a leading tool to determine fetal health. By using ultrasound pulses and reading the responses, CTGs help healthcare professionals assess the overall health of the fetus to determine the risk of child mortality. However, interpreting the results of the CTGs is time-consuming and inefficient, especially in underdeveloped areas where an expert obstetrician is hard to come by. Using a support vector machine (SVM) and oversampling, this paper proposed a model that classifies fetal health with an accuracy of 99.59%. To further explain the CTG measurements, an algorithm based on Randomized Input Sampling for Explanation ((RISE) of Black-box Models was created, called Feature Alteration for explanation of Black Box Models (FAB), and compared the findings to Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations (LIME). This allows doctors and medical professionals to classify fetal health with high accuracy and determine which features were most influential in the process.

Keywords: machine learning, fetal health, gradient boosting, support vector machine, Shapley values, local interpretable model agnostic explanations

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Authors: Madhurima S. Waghmare, Shaleen Singhal

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The concept of smartness, inclusion, sustainability is multidisciplinary and fuzzy, rooted in economic and social development theories and policies which get reflected in the spatial development of the cities. It is a challenge to convert these concepts from aspirations to transforming actions. There is a dearth of assessment and planning tools to support the city planners and administrators in developing smart, inclusive, and sustainable cities. To address this gap, this study develops an inclusive cities decision matrix based on an exploratory approach and using mixed methods. The matrix is soundly based on a review of multidisciplinary urban sector literature and refined and finalized based on inputs from experts and insights from case studies. The application of the decision matric on the case study cities in India suggests that the contemporary planning tools for cities need to be multidisciplinary and flexible to respond to the unique needs of the diverse contexts. The paper suggests that a multidimensional and inclusive approach to city planning can play an important role in building sustainable smart cities.

Keywords: inclusive-cities decision matrix, smart cities in India, city planning tools, sustainable cities

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Authors: Yannick Verbelen, Sam De Winne, Niek Blondeel, Ann Peeters, An Braeken, Abdellah Touhafi

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The growing popularity of solid state thermoelectric devices in cooling applications has sparked an increasing diversity of thermoelectric coolers (TECs) on the market, commonly known as “Peltier modules”. They can also be used as generators, converting a temperature difference into electric power, and opportunities are plentiful to make use of these devices as thermoelectric generators (TEGs) to supply energy to low power, autonomous embedded electronic applications. Their adoption as energy harvesters in this new domain of usage is obstructed by the complex thermoelectric models commonly associated with TEGs. Low cost TECs for the consumer market lack the required parameters to use the models because they are not intended for this mode of operation, thereby urging an alternative method to obtain electric power estimations in specific operating conditions. The design of the test setup implemented in this paper is specifically targeted at benchmarking commercial, off-the-shelf TECs for use as energy harvesters in domestic environments: applications with limited temperature differences and space available. The usefulness is demonstrated by testing and comparing single and multi stage TECs with different sizes. The effect of a boost converter stage on the thermoelectric end-to-end efficiency is also discussed.

Keywords: thermoelectric cooler, TEC, complementary balanced energy harvesting, step-up converter, DC/DC converter, energy harvesting, thermal harvesting

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Authors: Juntima Pokkrong

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The objectives of the study were to develop packaging made from rice straws left after the harvest in order to create additional value for organic rice products of Uttaradit Province and to demonstrate the technology of producing straw packaging to the community. The population was promoters of organic rice distributors, governmental organizations, consumers, and three groups of organic rice producers which are the Agriculturist Group of Khorrum Sub-district, Pichai District, Uttaradit Province; the Agriculturist Group of Wangdin Sub-district, Muang District, Uttaradit Province; and the Agriculturist Group of Wangkapi Sub-district, Muang District, Uttaradit Province. The data were collected via group discussions, and two types of questionnaires. The data acquired were then analyzed using descriptive statistic for percentage, mean, standard deviation, and content analysis. It has been found that primary packaging for one kilogram of rice requires vacuumed plastic bags made from thermoplastic or resin because they are able to preserve the quality of rice for a long time, and they are also very cheap. For secondary packaging, the making of straw paper was studied and applied. Straw paper can be used for various purposes, and in this study, it was used to create the secondary packaging models in compliance with packaging preferences acquired from the questionnaires. The models were surveyed among the population for their opinion using satisfaction questionnaires, and the result was overall highly satisfactory.

Keywords: environmentally friendly, organic rice, packaging, straw paper

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Authors: Rachid Zentar, Mokrane Bala, Pascal Boustingorry

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The prediction of the rheological behavior of concrete is at the center of current concerns of the concrete industry for different reasons. The shortage of good quality standard materials combined with variable properties of available materials imposes to improve existing models to take into account these variations at the design stage of concrete. The main reasons for improving the predictive models are, of course, saving time and cost at the design stage as well as to optimize concrete performances. In this study, we will highlight the different properties of the granular mixtures that affect the rheological properties of concrete. Our objective is to identify the intrinsic parameters of the aggregates which make it possible to predict the yield stress of concrete. The work was done using two typologies of grains: crushed and rolled aggregates. The experimental results have shown that the rheology of concrete is improved by increasing the packing density of the granular mixture using rolled aggregates. The experimental program realized allowed to model the yield stress of concrete by a modified model of Chateau et al. through a dimensionless parameter following Krieger-Dougherty law. The modelling confirms that the yield stress of concrete depends not only on the properties of cement paste but also on the packing density of the granular skeleton and the shape of grains.

Keywords: crushed aggregates, intrinsic viscosity, packing density, rolled aggregates, slump, yield stress of concrete

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Authors: Gregor Vidmar, Rožle Repič, Boštjan Lesar, Miha Humar

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The study investigates the impact of cracks in surface coatings on moisture content (MC) and related fungal growth in window frames made of thermally modified (TM) and native Norway spruce using hygrothermal simulations for Ljubljana, Slovenia. Comprehensive validation against field test data confirmed the numerical model's predictions, demonstrating similar trends in MC changes over investigated four years investigated. Various established mould growth models (isopleth, VTT, bio hygrothermal) did not appropriately reflect differences between the spruce types because they do not consider material moisture content, leading to the main conclusion that TM spruce is more resistant to moisture-related issues. Wood's MC influences fungal decomposition, typically occurring above 25% - 30% MC, with some fungi growing at lower MC under conducive conditions. Surface coatings cannot wholly prevent water penetration, which becomes significant when coating is damaged. This study investigates the detrimental effects of surface coating cracks on wood moisture absorption, comparing TM spruce and native spruce window frames. Simulations were conducted for undamaged and damaged coatings (from 1 mm to 9 mm wide cracks) on window profiles as well as for uncoated profiles. Sorption curves were also measured up to 95% of the relative humidity. MC was measured in the frames exposed to actual climatic conditions and compared to simulated data for model validation. The study utilizes a simplified model of the bottom frame part due to convergence issues with simulations of the whole frame. TM spruce showed about 4% lower MC content compared to native spruce. Simulations showed that a 3 mm wide crack in native spruce coatings for the north orientation poses significant moisture risks, while a 9 mm wide crack in TM spruce coatings remains acceptable furthermore in the case of uncoated TM spruce could be acceptable. In addition, it seems that large enough cracks may cause even worse moisture dynamics compared to uncoated native spruce profiles. The absorption curve comes out to be the far most influential parameter, and the next one is density. Existing mould growth models need to be upgraded to reflect wood material differences accurately. Due to the lower sorption curve of TM spruce, in reality higher RH values are obtained under the same boundary conditions, which implies a more critical situation according to these mould growth models. Still, it does not reflect the difference in materials, especially under external exposure conditions. Even if different substrate categories in the isopleth and bio-hygrothermal model or different sensitivity material classes for standard and TM wood are used, it does not necessarily change the expected trends; thus, models with MC being the inherent part of the models should be introduced. Orientation plays a crucial role in moisture dynamics. Results show that for the similar moisture dynamics, for Norway spruce, the crack could be about 2 mm wider on the south side.. In contrast, for TM spruce, orientation isn't as important, compared to other material properties. The study confirms the enhanced suitability of TM spruce for window frames in terms of moisture resistance and crack tolerance in surface coatings.

Keywords: hygrothermal simulations, mould growth, surface coating, thermally modified wood, window frame

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Authors: Seongcheol Kwon, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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We assume an IoT-based smart-home environment where the on-off status of each of the electrical appliances including the room lights can be recognized in a real time by monitoring and analyzing the smart meter data. At any moment in such an environment, we can recognize what the household or the user is doing by referring to the status data of the appliances. In this paper, we focus on a smart-home service that is to activate a robot vacuum cleaner at right time by recognizing the user situation, which requires a situation-aware model that can distinguish the situations that allow vacuum cleaning (Yes) from those that do not (No). We learn as our candidate models a few classifiers such as naïve Bayes, decision tree, and logistic regression that can map the appliance-status data into Yes and No situations. Our training and test data are obtained from simulations of user behaviors, in which a sequence of user situations such as cooking, eating, dish washing, and so on is generated with the status of the relevant appliances changed in accordance with the situation changes. During the simulation, both the situation transition and the resulting appliance status are determined stochastically. To compare the performances of the aforementioned classifiers we obtain their learning curves for different types of users through simulations. The result of our empirical study reveals that naïve Bayes achieves a slightly better classification accuracy than the other compared classifiers.

Keywords: situation-awareness, smart home, IoT, machine learning, classifier

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Authors: Marulasiddappa H. B., Pushparajesh Viswanathan

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Day by day, the uses of internal combustion engines (ICE) are deteriorating because of pollution and less fuel availability. In the present scenario, the electric vehicle (EV) plays a major role in the place of an ICE vehicle. The performance of EVs can be improved by the proper selection of electric motors. Initially, EV preferred induction motors for traction purposes, but due to complexity in controlling induction motor, permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) is replacing induction motor in EV due to its advantages. Direct torque control (DTC) is one of the known techniques for PMSM drive in EV to control the torque and speed. However, the presence of torque ripple is the main drawback of this technique. Many control strategies are followed to reduce the torque ripples in PMSM. In this paper, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) controller technique is proposed to reduce torque ripples and settling time. Here the performance parameters like torque, speed and settling time are compared between conventional proportional-integral (PI) controller with ANFIS controller.

Keywords: direct torque control, electric vehicle, torque ripple, PMSM

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Authors: Si Chen, Le Zhang, Xian He

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The research explored the influences of public open space system on housing price through hedonic models, in order to support better open space plans and economic policies. We have three initial hypotheses: 1) public open space system has an overall positive influence on surrounding housing prices. 2) Different public open space types have different levels of influence on motivating surrounding housing prices. 3) Walking and driving accessibilities from property to public open spaces have different statistical relation with housing prices. Cook County, Illinois, was chosen to be a study area since data availability, sufficient open space types, and long-term open space preservation strategies. We considered the housing attributes, driving and walking accessibility scores from houses to nearby public open spaces, and driving accessibility scores to hospitals as influential features and used real housing sales price in 2010 as a dependent variable in the built hedonic model. Through ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis, General Moran’s I analysis and geographically weighted regression analysis, we observed the statistical relations between public open spaces and housing sale prices in the three built hedonic models and confirmed all three hypotheses.

Keywords: hedonic model, public open space, housing sale price, regression analysis, accessibility score

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Authors: Lior Davidovitch

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Traditional training based on static models and case studies is the backbone of most teaching and training programs of engineering education. However, project management learning is characterized by dynamics models that requires new and enhanced learning method. The results of empirical experiments evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of using cognitive simulator as a new training technique are reported. The empirical findings are focused on the impact of keeping and reviewing learning history in a dynamic and interactive simulation environment of engineering education. The cognitive simulator for engineering project management learning had two learning history keeping modes: manual (student-controlled), automatic (simulator-controlled) and a version with no history keeping. A group of industrial engineering students performed four simulation-runs divided into three identical simple scenarios and one complicated scenario. The performances of participants running the simulation with the manual history mode were significantly better than users running the simulation with the automatic history mode. Moreover, the effects of using the undo enhanced further the learning process. The findings indicate an enhancement of engineering students’ learning and decision making when they use the record functionality of the history during their engineering training process. Furthermore, the cognitive simulator as educational innovation improves students learning and training. The practical implications of using simulators in the field of engineering education are discussed.

Keywords: cognitive simulator, decision making, engineering learning, project management

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Authors: Reza Babajanivalashedi, Stefania Lo Feudo, Jean-Luc Dion

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Liquid sloshing is a crucial problem for the dynamic of moving containers in the packaging industries. Sloshing issues have been so far mainly modeled within the framework of fluid dynamics or by using equivalent mechanical models with different kinds of movements and shapes of containers. Nevertheless, these approaches do not allow to determinate the shape of the free surface of the liquid in case of the irregular shape of the moving containers, so that experimental measurements may be required. If there is too much slosh in the moving tank, the liquid can be splashed out on the packages. So, the free surface oscillation must be controlled/reduced to eliminate the splashing. The purpose of this research is to propose an optimization algorithm for finding an optimum command law to reduce surface elevation. In the first step, the free surface of the liquid is simulated based on the separation variable and weak formulation models. Then Genetic and Gradient algorithms are developed for finding the optimum command law. The optimum command law is compared with existing command laws, and the results show that there is a significant difference in surface oscillation between optimum and existing command laws. This algorithm is applicable for different varieties of bottles in case of using the camera for detecting the liquid elevation, and it can produce new command laws for different kinds of tanks to reduce the surface oscillation and remove the splashing phenomenon.

Keywords: sloshing phenomenon, separation variables, weak formulation, optimization algorithm, command law

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Authors: L. Siva Rama Krishna, Sriram Venkatesh, M. Sastish Kumar, M. Uma Maheswara Chary

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Rapid Prototyping (RP) is a technology that produces models and prototype parts from 3D CAD model data, CT/MRI scan data, and model data created from 3D object digitizing systems. There are several RP process like Stereolithography (SLA), Solid Ground Curing (SGC), Selective Laser Sintering (SLS), Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM), 3D Printing (3DP) among them SLS and FDM RP processes are used to fabricate pattern of custom cranial implant. RP technology is useful in engineering and biomedical application. This is helpful in engineering for product design, tooling and manufacture etc. RP biomedical applications are design and development of medical devices, instruments, prosthetics and implantation; it is also helpful in planning complex surgical operation. The traditional approach limits the full appreciation of various bony structure movements and therefore the custom implants produced are difficult to measure the anatomy of parts and analyse the changes in facial appearances accurately. Cranioplasty surgery is a surgical correction of a defect in cranial bone by implanting a metal or plastic replacement to restore the missing part. This paper aims to do a comparative study on the dimensional error of CAD and SLS RP Models for reconstruction of cranial defect by comparing the virtual CAD with the physical RP model of a cranial defect.

Keywords: rapid prototyping, selective laser sintering, cranial defect, dimensional error

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Authors: H. Gokdemir

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All structures are subject to vertical and lateral loads. Under these loads, structures make deformations and deformation values of structural elements mustn't exceed their capacity for structural stability. Especially, lateral loads cause critical deformations because of their random directions and magnitudes. Wind load is one of the lateral loads which can act in any direction and any magnitude. Although wind has nearly no effect on reinforced concrete structures, it must be considered for steel structures, roof systems and slender structures like minarets. Therefore, every structure must be able to resist wind loads acting parallel and perpendicular to any side. One of the effective methods for resisting lateral loads is assembling cross steel elements between columns which are called as wind bracing. These cross elements increases lateral rigidity of a structure and prevent exceeding of deformation capacity of the structural system. So, this means cross elements are also effective in resisting earthquake loads too. In this paper; Effects of wind bracing to earthquake resistance of structures are studied. Structure models (with and without wind bracing) are generated and these models are solved under both earthquake and wind loads with different seismic zone parameters. It is concluded by the calculations that; in low-seismic risk zones, wind bracing can easily resist earthquake loads and no additional reinforcement for earthquake loads is necessary. Similarly; in high-seismic risk zones, earthquake cross elements resist wind loads too.

Keywords: wind bracings, earthquake, steel structures, vertical and lateral loads

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Authors: V. Jamuna, A. K. Chakravarty, C. S. Patil, Vijay Kumar, M. A. Mir, Rakesh Kumar

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Intense selection of buffaloes for milk production at organized herds of the country without giving due attention to fertility traits viz. pregnancy rate has lead to deterioration in their performances. Aim of study is to develop an optimum model for predicting pregnancy rate and to assess the level of pregnancy rate with respect to milk production Murrah buffaloes. Data pertaining to 1224 lactation records of Murrah buffaloes spread over a period 21 years were analyzed and it was observed that pregnancy rate depicted negative phenotypic association with lactation milk yield (-0.08 ± 0.04). For developing optimum model for pregnancy rate in Murrah buffaloes seven simple and multiple regression models were developed. Among the seven models, model II having only Service period as an independent reproduction variable, was found to be the best prediction model, based on the four statistical criterions (high coefficient of determination (R 2), low mean sum of squares due to error (MSSe), conceptual predictive (CP) value, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). For standardizing the level of fertility with milk production, pregnancy rate was classified into seven classes with the increment of 10% in all parities, life time and their corresponding average pregnancy rate in relation to the average lactation milk yield (MY).It was observed that to achieve around 2000 kg MY which can be considered optimum for Indian Murrah buffaloes, level of pregnancy rate should be in between 30-50%.

Keywords: life time, pregnancy rate, production, service period, standardization

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Authors: Oscar Norman Nekesa, Yoshitaka Kajita

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Tom Mboya Street is a vital urban corridor within the spectrum of Nairobi city, it experiences high volumes of pedestrian and vehicular traffic. Despite past intervention measures to lessen this catastrophe, rates have remained high. This highlights significant safety concerns that need urgent attention. This study investigates the correlation and pedestrian accident predictability with significant independent variables using multiple linear regression to model to develop effective mobility management strategies for accident mitigation. The methodology involves collecting and analyzing data on pedestrian accidents and various related independent variables. Data sources include the National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA), Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, and Nairobi City County records, covering five years. This study aims to investigate that traffic volumes (pedestrian and vehicle), Vehicular speed, human factors, illegal parking, policy issues, urban-land use, built environment, traffic signals conditions, inadequate lighting, and insufficient traffic control measures significantly have predictability with the rate of pedestrian accidents. Explanatory variables related to road design and geometry are significant in predictor models for the Tom Mboya Road link but less influential in junction along the 5 km stretch road models. The most impactful variable across all models was vehicular traffic flow. The study recommends infrastructural improvements, enhanced enforcement, and public awareness campaigns to reduce accidents and improve urban mobility. These insights can inform policy-making and urban planning to enhance pedestrian safety along the dense packed Tom Mboya Street and similar urban settings. The findings will inform evidence-based interventions to enhance pedestrian safety and improve urban mobility.

Keywords: multiple linear regression, urban mobility, traffic management, Nairobi, Tom Mboya street, infrastructure conditions., pedestrian safety, correlation and prediction

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Authors: Sukaina Al-Nasrawi, Maysoun Ibrahim

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Information and communication technologies (ICT) have affected recent public administration and governance. Electronic Government (e-government) services were developed to simplify government procedures and improve interaction with citizens on one hand and to create new governance models to empower citizens and involve them in the decision-making process while increasing transparency on another hand. It is worth noting that efficient governance models enable sustainable development at the social and economic levels. Currently, the status of e-government national strategies and implementation programs vary from one country to another. This variance in the development levels of e-government initiatives and applications noted the digital divide between countries of the same region, thereby highlighting the difficulty to reach regional integration. Many Arab countries realized the need for a well-articulated e-government strategy and launched national e-government initiatives. In selected Arab countries, the focus of e-government initiatives and programs shifted from the provision of services to advanced concepts such as open data initiatives. This paper aims at over viewing the e-government achievements of Arab countries and areas for enhancement, and share best practices in the area.of the best e-government programmes from the Arab region the world. It will also shed the light on the impact of the information society in general and e-government, in specific, on the social and economic development in the Arab region.

Keywords: Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), services, e-government, development, Arab region, digital divide, citizens

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Authors: Matteo Nicoli, Gianvito Colucci, Valeria Di Cosmo, Daniele Lerede, Laura Savoldi

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The transport sector is currently responsible for approximately 1/3 of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. In the wider context of achieving carbon neutrality of the global energy system, different alternatives are available to decarbonizethe transport sector. In particular, while electricity is already the most consumed energy commodity in rail transport, battery electric vehicles are one of the zero-emissions options on the market for road transportation. On the other hand, hydrogen-based fuel cell vehicles are available for road and non-road vehicles. The European Commission is strongly pushing toward the integration of hydrogen in the energy systems of European countries and its widespread adoption as an energy vector to achieve the Green Deal targets. Furthermore, the Italian government is defining hydrogen-related objectives with the publication of a dedicated Hydrogen Strategy. The adoption of energy system optimization models to study the possible penetration of alternative zero-emitting transport technologies gives the opportunity to perform an overall analysis of the effects that the development of innovative technologies has on the entire energy system and on the supply-side, devoted to the production of energy carriers such as hydrogen and electricity. Using an open-source modeling framework such as TEMOA, this work aims to compare the role of hydrogen and electric vehicles in the decarbonization of the transport sector. The analysis investigates the advantages and disadvantages of adopting the two options, from the economic point of view (costs associated with the two options) and the environmental one (looking at the emissions reduction perspectives). Moreover, an analysis on the profitability of the investments in hydrogen and electric vehicles will be performed. The study investigates the evolution of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in different transportation modes (road, rail, navigation, and aviation) by detailed analysis of the full range of vehicles included in the techno-economic database used in the TEMOA model instance adopted for this work. The transparency of the analysis is guaranteed by the accessibility of the TEMOA models, based on an open-access source code and databases.

Keywords: battery electric vehicles, decarbonization, energy system optimization models, fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen, open-source modeling, TEMOA, transport

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Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

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Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

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Authors: Laura Mclean

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A recurring point of interest in computational phylogenetic analysis of Indo-European family trees is the inference of a Germano-Italo-Celtic clade in some versions of the trees produced. The presence of this clade in the models is intriguing as there is little evidence for innovations shared among Germanic, Italic, and Celtic, the evidence generally used in the traditional method to construct a subgroup. One source of this unexpected outcome could be the input to the models. The datasets in the various models used so far, for the most part, take as their basis the Swadesh list, a list compiled by Morris Swadesh and then revised several times, containing up to 207 words that he believed were resistant to change among languages. The judgments made by Swadesh for this list, however, were subjective and based on his intuition rather than rigorous analysis. Some scholars used the Swadesh 200 list as the basis for their Indo-European dataset and made cognacy judgements for each of the words on the list. Another dataset is largely based on the Swadesh 207 list as well although the authors include additional lexical and non-lexical data, and they implement ‘split coding’ to deal with cases of polymorphic characters. A different team of scholars uses a different dataset, IECoR, which combines several different lists, one of which is the Swadesh 200 list. In fact, the Swadesh list is used in some form in every study surveyed and each dataset has three words that, when they are coded as cognates, seemingly contribute to the inference of a Germano-Italo-Celtic clade which could happen due to these clades sharing three words among only themselves. These three words are ‘fish’, ‘flower’, and ‘man’ (in the case of ‘man’, one dataset includes Lithuanian in the cognacy coding and removes the word ‘man’ from the screened data). This collection of cognates shared among Germanic, Italic, and Celtic that were deemed important enough to be included on the Swadesh list, without the ability to account for possible reasons for shared cognates that are not shared innovations, gives an impression of affinity between the Germanic, Celtic, and Italic branches without adequate methodological support. However, by changing how cognacy is defined (ie. root cognates, borrowings vs inherited cognates etc.), we will be able to identify whether these three cognates are significant enough to infer a clade for Germanic, Celtic, and Italic. This paper examines the question of what definition of cognacy should be used for phylogenetic datasets by examining the Germano-Italo-Celtic clade as a case study and offers insights into the reconstruction of a Germano-Italo-Celtic clade.

Keywords: historical, computational, Italo-Celtic, Germanic

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Authors: Arun Goel

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The present paper attempts to investigate the prediction of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from a triangular sharp crested weir by using regression based modelling. The empirical equations, support vector machine (polynomial and radial basis function) models and the linear regression techniques were applied on the triangular sharp crested weirs relating the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency to the input parameters namely drop height, discharge, and vertex angle. It was observed that there exists a good agreement between the measured values and the values obtained using empirical equations, support vector machine (Polynomial and rbf) models, and the linear regression techniques. The test results demonstrated that the SVM based (Poly & rbf) model also provided acceptable prediction of the measured values with reasonable accuracy along with empirical equations and linear regression techniques in modelling the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from triangular sharp crested weir. Further sensitivity analysis has also been performed to study the impact of input parameter on the output in terms of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency.

Keywords: air entrainment rate, dissolved oxygen, weir, SVM, regression

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Authors: Brennan Lodge

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Amidst a complex regulatory landscape, Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) emerges as a transformative tool for Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) officers. This paper details the application of RAG in synthesizing Large Language Models (LLMs) with external knowledge bases, offering GRC professionals an advanced means to adapt to rapid changes in compliance requirements. While the development for standalone LLM’s (Large Language Models) is exciting, such models do have their downsides. LLM’s cannot easily expand or revise their memory, and they can’t straightforwardly provide insight into their predictions, and may produce “hallucinations.” Leveraging a pre-trained seq2seq transformer and a dense vector index of domain-specific data, this approach integrates real-time data retrieval into the generative process, enabling gap analysis and the dynamic generation of compliance and risk management content. We delve into the mechanics of RAG, focusing on its dual structure that pairs parametric knowledge contained within the transformer model with non-parametric data extracted from an updatable corpus. This hybrid model enhances decision-making through context-rich insights, drawing from the most current and relevant information, thereby enabling GRC officers to maintain a proactive compliance stance. Our methodology aligns with the latest advances in neural network fine-tuning, providing a granular, token-level application of retrieved information to inform and generate compliance narratives. By employing RAG, we exhibit a scalable solution that can adapt to novel regulatory challenges and cybersecurity threats, offering GRC officers a robust, predictive tool that augments their expertise. The granular application of RAG’s dual structure not only improves compliance and risk management protocols but also informs the development of compliance narratives with pinpoint accuracy. It underscores AI’s emerging role in strategic risk mitigation and proactive policy formation, positioning GRC officers to anticipate and navigate the complexities of regulatory evolution confidently.

Keywords: cybersecurity, gen AI, retrieval augmented generation, cybersecurity defense strategies

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Authors: Chien-Kuo Chang, Yu-Hsiang Lin, Yi-Yun Tang, Min-Chiu Wu

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With the trend of technological advancement, the harm caused by power outages is substantial, mostly due to problems in the power grid. This highlights the necessity for further improvement in the reliability of the power system. In the power system, gas-insulated switches (GIS) and power cables play a crucial role. Long-term operation under high voltage can cause insulation materials in the equipment to crack, potentially leading to partial discharges. If these partial discharges (PD) can be analyzed, preventative maintenance and replacement of equipment can be carried out, there by improving the reliability of the power grid. This research will diagnose defects by identifying three different defects in GIS and three different defects in straight cable joints, for a total of six types of defects. The partial discharge data measured will be converted through phase analysis diagrams and pulse sequence analysis. Discharge features will be extracted using convolutional image processing, and three different deep learning models, CNN, ResNet18, and MobileNet, will be used for training and evaluation. Class Activation Mapping will be utilized to interpret the black-box problem of deep learning models, with each model achieving an accuracy rate of over 95%. Lastly, the overall model performance will be enhanced through an ensemble learning voting method.

Keywords: partial discharge, gas-insulated switches, straight cable joint, defect identification, deep learning, ensemble learning

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Authors: Plessen Mogens Graf

Abstract:

Within the context of multivariate time series segmentation, this paper proposes a method inspired by a posteriori optimal trading. After a normalization step, time series are treated channelwise as surrogate stock prices that can be traded optimally a posteriori in a virtual portfolio holding either stock or cash. Linear transaction costs are interpreted as hyperparameters for noise filtering. Trading signals, as well as trading signals obtained on the reversed time series, are used for unsupervised channelwise labeling before a consensus over all channels is reached that determines the final segmentation time instants. The method is model-free such that no model prescriptions for segments are made. Benefits of proposed approach include simplicity, computational efficiency, and adaptability to a wide range of different shapes of time series. Performance is demonstrated on synthetic and real-world data, including a large-scale dataset comprising a multivariate time series of dimension 1000 and length 2709. Proposed method is compared to a popular model-based bottom-up approach fitting piecewise affine models and to a recent model-based top-down approach fitting Gaussian models and found to be consistently faster while producing more intuitive results in the sense of segmenting time series at peaks and valleys.

Keywords: time series segmentation, model-free, trading-inspired, multivariate data

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Ahmed M. Jihad

Abstract:

The paper presents the concept of sustainable development, and the role of geographic techniques in the design, planning and presentation of maps of smart cities with geographical vision, and the identification of programs and tools, and models of maps of Arab cities, is the problem of research in how to apply, process and experience these programs? What is the role of geographic techniques in planning and mapping the optimal place for these cities? The paper proposes an addition to the designs of Iraqi cities, as it can be developed in the future to serve as a model for interactive smart cities by developing its services. The importance of this paper stems from the concept of sustainable development dynamic which has become a method of development imposed by the present era in rapid development to achieve social balance and specialized programs in draw paper argues that ensuring sustainable development is achieved through the use of information technology. The paper will follow the theoretical presentation of the importance of the concept of development, design tools and programs. The paper follows the method of analysis of modern systems (System Analysis Approach) through the latest programs will provide results can be said that the new Iraqi cities can be developed with smart technologies, like some of the Arab and European cities that were newly created through the introduction of international investment, and therefore Plans can be made to select the best programs in manufacturing and producing maps and smart cities in the future.

Keywords: geographic techniques, planning the cities, smart cities, sustainable development

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Authors: Satya S. N. Narayana, P. Parthiban, T. Niranjan, N. Kannan

Abstract:

Enterprises adopt methodologies to increase their business performance and to stay competent in the volatile global market. Lean manufacturing is one such manufacturing paradigm which focuses on reduction of cost by elimination of wastes or non-value added activities. With increased awareness about social responsibility and the necessary to meet the terms of the environmental policy, green manufacturing is becoming increasingly important for industries. Large plants have more resources, have started implementing lean and green practices and they are getting good results. Small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) are facing problems in implementing lean and green concept. This paper aims to identify the key issues for implementation of lean and green concept in Indian SMEs. The key factors identified based on literature review and expert opinions are grouped into different levels by Modified Interpretive Structural Modeling (MISM) to explore the importance among the factors to implement lean and green manufacturing. Finally, Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) method has been used to determine the extent to which the main principles of lean and green manufacturing have been carried out in the six Indian medium scale manufacturing industries.

Keywords: lean manufacturing, green manufacturing, MISM, FANP

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Authors: Parul Goel, Jyeshtharaj B. Joshi, Arun K. Nayak

Abstract:

Nucleate boiling is characterized by the nucleation, growth and departure of the tiny individual vapor bubbles that originate in the cavities or imperfections present in the heating surface. It finds a wide range of applications, e.g. in heat exchangers or steam generators, core cooling in power reactors or rockets, cooling of electronic circuits, owing to its highly efficient transfer of large amount of heat flux over small temperature differences. Hence, it is important to be able to predict the rate of heat transfer and the safety limit heat flux (critical heat flux, heat flux higher than this can lead to damage of the heating surface) applicable for any given system. A large number of experimental and analytical works exist in the literature, and are based on the idea that the knowledge of the bubble dynamics on the microscopic scale can lead to the understanding of the full picture of the boiling heat transfer. However, the existing data in the literature are scattered over various sets of conditions and often in disagreement with each other. The correlations obtained from such data are also limited to the range of conditions they were established for and no single correlation is applicable over a wide range of parameters. More recently, a number of researchers have been trying to remove empiricism in the heat transfer models to arrive at more phenomenological models using extensive numerical simulations; these models require state-of-the-art experimental data for a wide range of conditions, first for input and later, for their validation. With this idea in mind, experiments with sub-cooled and saturated demineralized water have been carried out under atmospheric pressure to study the bubble dynamics- growth rate, departure size and frequencies for nucleate pool boiling. A number of heating elements have been used to study the dependence of vapor bubble dynamics on the heater surface finish and heater geometry along with the experimental conditions like the degree of sub-cooling, super heat and the heat flux. An attempt has been made to compare the data obtained with the existing data and the correlations in the literature to generate an exhaustive database for the pool boiling conditions.

Keywords: experiment, boiling, bubbles, bubble dynamics, pool boiling

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Authors: Luis Marquez, Ge Zhu, Vikas Srivastava

Abstract:

High-density polyethylene (HDPE) is one of the most commonly used thermoplastic polymer materials for water and gas pipelines. Slow crack growth failure is a well-known phenomenon in high-density polyethylene material and causes brittle failure well below the yield point with no obvious sign. The failure of transportation pipelines can cause catastrophic environmental and economic consequences. Using the non-destructive testing method to predict slow crack growth failure behavior is the primary preventative measurement employed by the pipeline industry but is often costly and time-consuming. Phenomenological slow crack growth models are useful to predict the slow crack growth behavior in the polymer material due to their ability to evaluate slow crack growth under different temperature and loading conditions. We developed a quantitative method to assess the slow crack growth behavior in the high-density polyethylene pipeline material under different thermal conditions based on existing physics-based phenomenological models. We are also working on developing an experimental protocol and quantitative model that can address slow crack growth behavior under different chemical exposure conditions to improve the safety, reliability, and resilience of HDPE-based pipeline infrastructure.

Keywords: mechanics of materials, physics-based modeling, civil engineering, fracture mechanics

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Authors: Bo-Bin Xiaoa, Chia-Yi Liua

Abstract:

In the task of searching for anomalous radiation sources, personnel holding radiation detectors to search for radiation sources may be exposed to unnecessary radiation risk, and automated search using machines becomes a required project. The research uses various sophisticated algorithms, which are double Q learning, dueling network, and NoisyNet, of deep reinforcement learning to search for radiation sources. The simulation environment, which is a 10*10 grid and one shielding wall setting in it, improves the development of the AI model by training 1 million episodes. In each episode of training, the radiation source position, the radiation source intensity, agent position, shielding wall position, and shielding wall length are all set randomly. The three algorithms are applied to run AI model training in four environments where the training shielding wall is a full-shielding wall, a lead wall, a concrete wall, and a lead wall or a concrete wall appearing randomly. The 12 best performance AI models are selected by observing the reward value during the training period and are evaluated by comparing these AI models with the gradient search algorithm. The results show that the performance of the AI model, no matter which one algorithm, is far better than the gradient search algorithm. In addition, the simulation environment becomes more complex, the AI model which applied Double DQN combined Dueling and NosiyNet algorithm performs better.

Keywords: double Q learning, dueling network, NoisyNet, source searching

Procedia PDF Downloads 105