Search results for: five factor model of personality

Authors: H. Li, W. Qin, Ben Ye

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Friction Push Plug Welding (FPPW) is a solid phase welding suitable for repairing defective welds and filling self-reacting weld keyholes in Friction Stir Welds. In FPPW process, a tapered shaped plug is rotated at high speed and forced into a tapered hole in the substrate. The plug and substrate metal is softened by the increasing temperature generated by friction and material plastic deformation. This paper aims to investigate the effect of process parameters on the quality of the weld. Orthogonal design methods were employed to reduce the amount of experiment. Three values were selected for each process parameter, rotation speed (1500r/min, 2000r/min, 2500r/min), plunge depth (2mm, 3mm, 4mm) and plunge speed (60mm/min, 90mm/min, 120r/min). AA6061aluminum alloy plug and substrate plate was used in the experiment. In a trial test with the plunge depth of 1mm, a noticeable defect appeared due to the short plunge time and insufficient temperature. From the recorded temperature profiles, it was found that the peak temperature increased with the increase of the rotation speed, plunge speed and plunge depth. In the initial stage, the plunge speed was the main factor affecting heat generation, while in the steady state welding stage, the rotation speed played a more important role. The FPPW weld defect includes flash and incomplete penetration in the upper, middle and bottom interface with the substrate. To obtain defect free weld, the higher rotation speed and proper plunge depth were recommended.

Keywords: friction push plug welding, process parameter, weld defect, orthogonal design

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Carlo Stephen O. Moneva, Sharon Rose M. Tabugo

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The present study aims to assess polymorphism in the prolactin (C576A) gene and determine the influence of different prolactin (PRL) genotypes to milk yield performance in crossbred Anglo-Nubian dairy goats raised from Awang, Opol, Misamis Oriental and Talay, Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental. Genomic DNA was extracted from hair follicles and Polymerase Chain Reaction – Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) was performed for the genotyping of the C576A polymorphism located in exon 5 of goats’ prolactin gene using Eco241 restriction enzyme. Genotypic and allelic frequencies of 0.56 for AA, 0.44 for AB, 0.78 for A, and 0.22 for B were recorded. Observed heterozygosity values were higher than the expected heterozygosity. All populations followed the Hardy–Weinberg principle at p>0.05, except for dairy goats from Farm A located in Opol, Misamis Oriental. A two-way factorial (2 x 4) in a Randomized Complete Block Design was used to be able to evaluate the relationship between genotypes and milk yield performance. PRL genotypes and parity were used as main factors and farm as the blocking factor. AB genotype goats produced significantly higher average daily milk yield and total milk production than AA genotype (p<0.05), an indication that the polymorphism in the caprine PRL (C576A) gene influenced milk yield performance in the population of crossbred Anglo-Nubian goats from Opol, Misamis Oriental and Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental. However, these results have to be validated in other dairy goat breeds.

Keywords: polymorphism, prolactin, milk yield, Anglo-Nubian, PCR-RFLP

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

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As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.

Keywords: global warming, rainfall, CMIP5, CORDEX, NWH

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Efe Çukur

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This study aims to discuss and compare i) widespread and generic design, particularly industrial design education in relation to the specific needs of the automotive/transportation industry, and ii) an automotive/transportation design education model within and under to provide the conditions of design education and automotive industry, especially in Turkey and T.R.N.C. The automotive industry is the 11th largest in the world ($1.51 trillion). One of the most important departments in this industry, along with sales, marketing and engineering, is the design department. The automotive industry is known as the locomotive industry, but there is a non-automotive design department on the academic side of Turkey. This suggestion; includes the presentation of a program proposal that meets the needs of the industry for Turkey and T.R.N.C., the second largest automobile manufacturing country in Europe. On the education side, industrial design education has become a generic title. Automotive design studios are divided into several subgroups. Even in the higher graduate education, the automotive design departments get their subgroups like exterior design and interior design. Transportation design, which is a subfield of industrial design, is offered as higher education in transportation design departments, particularly in America and Europe. In these departments, the curriculum is shaped to the needs of the sectors. Higher education transportation design programs began in the mid-20th century. Until those high education programs...Until these high education programs, the industry has adapted architectures and engineers for designer workloads. Still today transportation design graduates are not the majority of the design studios. The content of the study is an in-depth comparison of these institutions and how the requirements, demands of the industry are met in this regard and revealed. Some of the institutions are selected from Europe and US. To be analyzed under the headings of staff, courses, syllabus, University-Industry collaboration, and location selection. The study includes short, mid, and long term proposals and a hypothesis for discussion. In short, the study will not only provide a wide comparative scope of information on generic and specialized aspects of design education in different countries but also propose a higher education model for automotive / transportation design with solid data of requirements, methodology, and structure regarding learning outcomes, and especially industry cooperation.

Keywords: design education, automotive - transportation design programs, transportation design, automotive industry in Turkey /T.R.N.C., automotive design education in Turkey /T.R.N.C.

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: A. K. M. Badrul Alam, Yoshiaki Fujii, Nahid Hasan Dipu, Shakil Ahmed Razo

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Shale rockmasses often include silt layers, impacting slope stability in construction and mining. Analyzing their interaction is crucial for long-term stability. A study used an elastoplastic model, incorporating the stress transfer method and Coulomb's criterion, to assess a shale rock mass with silt layers. It computed stress distribution, assessed failure potential, and identified vulnerable regions where nodal forces were calculated for a comprehensive analysis. A shale rock mass ranging from 14.75 to 16.75 meters thick, with silt layers varying from 0.36 to 0.5 meters, was considered in the model. It examined four silt layer conditions: horizontal (SiHL), vertical (SiVL), inclined against slope (SiIincAGS), and along slope (SilincALO). Mechanical parameters like uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), tensile strength (TS), Young’s modulus (E), Poisson’s ratio, and density were adjusted for varied scenarios: UCS (0.5 to 5 MPa), TS (0.1 to 1 MPa), and E (6 to 60 MPa). In elastic analysis of shale rock masses, stress distributions vary based on layer properties. When shale and silt layers have the same elasticity modulus (E), stress concentrates at corners. If the silt layer has a lower E than shale, marginal changes in maximum stress (σmax) occur for SilHL. A decrease in σmax is evident at SilVL. Slight variations in σmax are observed for SilincAGS and SilincALO. In the elastoplastic analysis, the overall decrease of 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, and 90% was considered. For SilHL:(i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: strength decrease led to shear (S), tension then shear (T then S) failure; noticeable failure at 60% decrease, significant at 80%, collapse at 90%. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: No significant differences. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: No significant differences. For SilVL: (i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: Similar effects as SilHL. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: Slip occurred. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: Bitension failure also observed with larger slip. For SilincAGS: (i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: Effects similar to SilHL. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: Slip occurred. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: Tension failure also observed with larger slip. For SilincALO: (i) Same E, UCS, and TS for silt layer and shale, UCS/TS ratio 5: Similar to SilHL with tension failure. (ii) Lower E for silt layer, same strength as shale: No significant differences; failure diverged. (iii) Lower E and UCS, silt layer strength 1/10: Bitension failure also observed with larger slip; failure diverged. Toppling failure was observed for lower E cases of SilVL and SilincAGS. The presence of silt interlayers in shale greatly impacts slope stability. Designing slopes requires careful consideration of both the silt and shale's mechanical properties. The temporal degradation of strength in these layers is a major concern. Thus, slope design must comprehensively analyze the immediate and long-term mechanical behavior of interlayer silt and shale to effectively mitigate instability.

Keywords: shale rock masses, silt layers, slope stability, elasto-plastic model, temporal degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Pratima Tatke, Archana Avhad, Bhanu Duggal, Meeta Rajivlochan, Sujata Saunik, Pradip Vyas, Nidhi Pandey, Aditee Dalvi, Jyothi Subramanian

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Background: Smoking is well established risk factor for the development and progression of coronary artery disease. It is strongly related to morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular causes. The aim of this study is to observe effect of smoking status on percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI) after 1 year. Methods: 2527 patients who underwent PCI at different hospital of Maharashtra(India) from 2012 to 2015 under the health insurance scheme which is launched by Health department, Government of Maharashtra for below poverty line(BPL) families which covers cardiology. Informed consent of patients was taken .They were followed by telephonic survey after 6months to 1year of PCI . Outcomes of interest included myocardial infarction, restenosis, cardiac rehospitalization, death, and a composite of events after PCI. Made group of two non smokers-1861 and smokers (including patients who quit at time of PCI )-659. Results: Statistical Analysis using Pearson’s chi square test revealed that there was trend seen of increasing incidence of death, Myocardial infarction and Restenosis in smokers than non smokers .Smokers had a greater death risk compared to nonsmoker; 5.7% and 5.1% respectively p=0.518. Also Repeat procedures (2.1% vs. 1.5% p=0.222), breathlessness (17.8% vs. 18.20% p=0.1) and Myocardial Infarction (7.3% vs. 10%) high in smoker than non smokers. Conclusion: Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were observed even after successful PCI in smokers. Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention should be encouraged to stop smoking.

Keywords: coronary artery diseases, major adverse cardiovascular events, percutaneous coronary intervention, smoking

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Moetazza M. Alshafei, Ahmed M. Mabrouk, Emtenan M. Hanafi, Manal M. Ramadan, Reda M. S. Korany, Seham S. Kassem, Dina Mostafa Mohammed

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Metabolic syndrome (MeS) is a major health problem with a high incidence of obese individuals worldwide. Increased related morbidity of diabetes, hypertension and fatty liver disease, and complicated cardiovascular disease are inevitable. Boswellia serrata gum (Bos) is a promising traditional medicinal plant; it has several pharmacological properties, including anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and antilipase activities. Probiotics (Bac) supplements have good benefits on health and MeS, whether it is supplemented in combination with prebiotics or alone. Microencapsulation helps to mask unpalatable taste and odor and deliver active ingredients to targeted organs. Methodology MeS rat model was produced by feeding rats with a high fat, high CHO diet (HFD). Bos was extracted, and both Bos and the probiotic were microencapsulated with a spray drier. Female rats were divided into 5 groups (N8). HFD control, control normal receiving basic diet, HFD treated, from the start of the experiment, either with encapsulated Bos, Bac and Bos or Bac only, all treatments were received for eight weeks (after approval from NRC animal ethical committee). Serum was collected to analyze lipid profile, blood sugar, liver and kidney functions, antioxidants, leptin, and progesterone. Rat's organs and body fat were weighed and collected for histopathology. Statistical analysis was done by use of one way Anova test in the SPSS program. Results showed control of elevated body weight, lipid profile, and glucose levels as well as decrease of body fat index and improvement of histopathology of liver and heart, especially in combination. Conclusion: We concluded that both microencapsulated Bos and probiotics have a controlling effect on MeS parameters.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, Boswellia serata, probiotic, micro-encapsulation, histopathology, liver steatosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Piyush Sharma, Laltu Chandra, P. S. Ghoshdastidar, Rajiv Shekhar

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Metals processing operations such as melting and heat treatment of metals are energy-intensive, requiring temperatures greater than 500oC. The desired temperature in these industrial furnaces is attained by circulating electrically-heated air. In most of these furnaces, electricity produced from captive coal-based thermal power plants is used. Solar thermal energy could be a viable heat source in these furnaces. A retrofitted solar convective furnace (SCF) concept, which uses solar thermal generated hot air, has been proposed. Critical to the success of a SCF is the design of an open volumetric air receiver (OVAR), which can heat air in excess of 800oC. The OVAR is placed on top of a tower and receives concentrated solar radiation from a heliostat field. Absorbers, mixer assembly, and the return air flow chamber (RAFC) are the major components of an OVAR. The absorber is a porous structure that transfers heat from concentrated solar radiation to ambient air, referred to as primary air. The mixer ensures uniform air temperature at the receiver exit. Flow of the relatively cooler return air in the RAFC ensures that the absorbers do not fail by overheating. In an earlier publication, the detailed design basis, fabrication, and characterization of a 2 kWth open volumetric air receiver (OVAR) based laboratory solar air tower simulator was presented. Development of an experimentally-validated, CFD based mathematical model which can ultimately be used for the design and scale-up of an OVAR has been the major objective of this investigation. In contrast to the published literature, where flow and heat transfer have been modeled primarily in a single absorber module, the present study has modeled the entire receiver assembly, including the RAFC. Flow and heat transfer calculations have been carried out in ANSYS using the LTNE model. The complex return air flow pattern in the RAFC requires complicated meshes and is computational and time intensive. Hence a simple, realistic 1-D mathematical model, which circumvents the need for carrying out detailed flow and heat transfer calculations, has also been proposed. Several important results have emerged from this investigation. Circumferential electrical heating of absorbers can mimic frontal heating by concentrated solar radiation reasonably well in testing and characterizing the performance of an OVAR. Circumferential heating, therefore, obviates the need for expensive high solar concentration simulators. Predictions suggest that the ratio of power on aperture (POA) and mass flow rate of air (MFR) is a normalizing parameter for characterizing the thermal performance of an OVAR. Increasing POA/MFR increases the maximum temperature of air, but decreases the thermal efficiency of an OVAR. Predictions of the 1-D mathematical are within 5% of ANSYS predictions and computation time is reduced from ~ 5 hours to a few seconds.

Keywords: absorbers, mixer assembly, open volumetric air receiver, return air flow chamber, solar thermal energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Mustafa El-Halabi

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A general model of wiretap channel with states is considered, where the legitimate receiver and the wiretapper’s observations depend on three states S1, S2 and S3. State S1 is non-causally known to the encoder, S2 is known to the receiver, and S3 remains unknown. A secure coding scheme, based using structured-binning, is proposed, and it is shown to achieve the secrecy capacity when the signal at legitimate receiver is a deterministic function of the input.

Keywords: physical layer security, interference, side information, secrecy capacity

Procedia PDF Downloads 370

Authors: Shailendra M. Pradhan, Upendra M. Pradhan

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Disasters are perennial features of human civilization. The recurring earthquakes, floods, cyclones, among others, that result in massive loss of lives and devastation, is a grim reminder of the fact that, despite all our success stories of development, and progress in science and technology, human society is perennially at risk to disasters. The apparent threat of climate change and global warming only severe our disaster risks. Darjeeling hills, situated along Eastern Himalayan region of India, and famous for its three Ts – tea, tourism and toy-train – is also equally notorious for its disasters. The recurring landslides and earthquakes, the cyclone Aila, and the Ambootia landslides, considered as the largest landslide in Asia, are strong evidence of the vulnerability of Darjeeling hills to natural disasters. Given its geographical location along the Hindu-Kush Himalayas, the region is marked by rugged topography, geo-physically unstable structure, high-seismicity, and fragile landscape, making it prone to disasters of different kinds and magnitudes. Most of the studies on disasters in Darjeeling hills are, however, scientific and geographical in orientation that focuses on the underlying geological and physical processes to the neglect of social and political conditions. This has created a tendency among the researchers and policy-makers to endorse and promote a particular type of discourse that does not consider the social and political aspects of disasters in Darjeeling hills. Disaster, this paper argues, is a complex phenomenon, and a result of diverse factors, both physical and human. The hazards caused by the physical and geological agents, and the vulnerabilities produced and rooted in political, economic, social and cultural structures of a society, together result in disasters. In this sense, disasters are as much a result of political and economic conditions as it is of physical environment. The human aspect of disasters, therefore, compels us to address intricating social and political challenges that ultimately determine our resilience and vulnerability to disasters. Set within the above milieu, the aims of the paper are twofold: a) to provide a political and sociological account of disasters in Darjeeling hills; and, b) to identify and address the root causes of its vulnerabilities to disasters. In situating disasters in Darjeeling Hills, the paper adopts the Pressure and Release Model (PAR) that provides a theoretical insight into the study of social and political aspects of disasters, and to examine myriads of other related issues therein. The PAR model conceptualises risk as a complex combination of vulnerabilities, on the one hand, and hazards, on the other. Disasters, within the PAR framework, occur when hazards interact with vulnerabilities. The root causes of vulnerability, in turn, could be traced to social and political structures such as legal definitions of rights, gender relations, and other ideological structures and processes. In this way, the PAR model helps the present study to identify and unpack the root causes of vulnerabilities and disasters in Darjeeling hills that have largely remained neglected in dominant discourses, thereby providing a more nuanced and sociologically sensitive understanding of disasters.

Keywords: Darjeeling, disasters, PAR, vulnerabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Kelly F. Delgado-De Agrela, Sonia E. Ruiz, Marco A. Santos-Santiago

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An approach is proposed for the design of regular buildings equipped with non-linear viscous dissipating devices. The approach is based on a direct-displacement seismic design method which satisfies seismic performance objectives. The global system involved is formed by structural regular moment frames capable of supporting gravity and lateral loads with elastic response behavior plus a set of non-linear viscous dissipating devices which reduce the structural seismic response. The dampers are characterized by two design parameters: (1) a positive real exponent α which represents the non-linearity of the damper, and (2) the damping coefficient C of the device, whose constitutive force-velocity law is given by F=Cvᵃ, where v is the velocity between the ends of the damper. The procedure is carried out using a substitute structure. Two limits states are verified: serviceability and near collapse. The reduction of the spectral ordinates by the additional damping assumed in the design process and introduced to the structure by the viscous non-linear dampers is performed according to a damping reduction factor. For the design of the non-linear damper system, the real velocity is considered instead of the pseudo-velocity. The proposed design methodology is applied to an 8-story steel moment frame building equipped with non-linear viscous dampers, located in intermediate soil zone of Mexico City, with a dominant period Tₛ = 1s. In order to validate the approach, nonlinear static analyses and nonlinear time history analyses are performed.

Keywords: based design, direct-displacement based design, non-linear viscous dampers, performance design

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Elhussaien Elshiekh

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A study was performed to management and compare radiation doses and image quality during Lumbar spine PA and Lumbar spine LAT, x- ray radiography using Computed Radiography (CR) and Digital Radiography (DR). Standard exposure factors such as kV, mAs and FFD used for imaging the Lumbar spine anthropomorphic phantom obtained from average exposure factors that were used with CR in five radiology centres. Lumbar spine phantom was imaged using CR and DR systems. Entrance surface air kerma (ESAK) was calculated X-ray tube output and patient exposure factor. Images were evaluated using visual grading system based on the European Guidelines on Quality Criteria for diagnostic radiographic images. The ESAK corresponding to each image was measured at the surface of the phantom. Six experienced specialists evaluated hard copies of all the images, the image score (IS) was calculated for each image by finding the average score of the Six evaluators. The IS value also was used to determine whether an image was diagnostically acceptable. The optimum recommended exposure factors founded here for Lumbar spine PA and Lumbar spine LAT, with respectively (80 kVp,25 mAs at 100 cm FFD) and (75 kVp,15 mAs at 100 cm FFD) for CR system, and (80 kVp,15 mAs at100 cm FFD) and (75 kVp,10 mAs at 100 cm FFD) for DR system. For Lumbar spine PA, the lowest ESAK value required to obtain a diagnostically acceptable image were 0.80 mGy for DR and 1.20 mGy for CR systems. Similarly for Lumbar spine LAT projection, the lowest ESAK values to obtain a diagnostically acceptable image were 0.62 mGy for DR and 0.76 mGy for CR systems. At standard kVp and mAs values, the image quality did not vary significantly between the CR and the DR system, but at higher kVp and mAs values, the DR images were found to be of better quality than CR images. In addition, the lower limit of entrance skin dose consistent with diagnostically acceptable DR images was 40% lower than that for CR images.

Keywords: image quality, dosimetry, radiation protection, optimization, digital radiography, computed radiography

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Ionelia Taranu, Gina Cecilia Pistol, Mihai Alexandru Gras, Mihai Laurentiu Palade, Mariana Stancu, Veronica Sanda Chedea

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In the last decade bioactive compounds from grape waste are investigated as new therapeutic agents for the inhibition of carcinogenesis and other diseases. The objective of this study was to characterize several bioactive compounds (polyphenols and polyunsaturated fatty acids) of a dried grape pomace (GP) derived from a Romanian winery and further to evaluate their effect on inflammation and oxidative markers in liver of pig used as animal model. The total polyphenol concentration of pomace was 36.2g gallic acid equiv /100g. The pomace was rich in polyphenols from the flavonoids group, the main class being flavanols (epicatechins, catechin, epigallocatechin, procyanidins) and antocyanins (Malvidin 3-O-glucoside). The highest concentration was recorded for epicatechin (51.96g/100g) and procyanidin dimer (22.79g/100g). A high concentration of total polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) especially ω-6 fatty acids (59.82 g/100g fat) was found in grape pomace. 20 crossbred TOPIG hybrid fattening pigs were randomly assigned (n = 10) to two experimental treatments: a normal diet (control group) and a diet included 5% grape pomace (GP group) for 24 days. The GP diet lowered the gene expression and protein concentration of IL-1β, IL-8, TNF-α and IFN-γ cytokines in liver suggesting an anti-inflammatory effect of GP diet. Concentration of hepatic TBARS also decreased, but the total antioxidant capacity (liver TEAC) and activity and gene expression of antioxidant enzymes (superoxide dismutase, catalase and glutathione peroxidase) did not differ between the GP and control diet. The results showed that GP diet exerted an anti-inflammatory effect, but the 5% dietary inclusion modulated only partially the oxidative stress.

Keywords: animal model, inflammation, grape waste, immune organs

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov

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Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.

Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: Divya Vohora, Md. Jamir Anwar

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Antiepileptic drugs (AEDs)-induced adverse consequences on bone are now well recognized. Despite this, there is limited data on the effect of anti-osteoporotic therapies on AEDs-induced bone loss. Both phenytoin (PHT) and sodium valproate (SVP) inhibit human aromatase enzyme and stimulate microsomal catabolism of oestrogens. Estrogen deficiency states are known to reduce the deposition of transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β3), a bone matrix protein, having anti-osteoclastic property. Thus, an attempt was made to investigate the effect of raloxifene, a selective oestrogen receptor modulator, in comparison with CVD supplementation, on PHT and SVP-induced alterations in bone in mice. Further, the effect of raloxifene on seizures and on the antiepileptic efficacy of AEDs was also investigated. Swiss strains of female mice were treated with PHT (35 mg/kg, p.o.) and SVP (300 mg/kg, p.o.) for 120 days to induce bone loss as evidenced by reduced bone mineral density (BMD) and altered bone turnover markers in lumbar bones (alkaline phosphatase, tartarate resistant acid phosphatase, hydroxyproline) and urine (calcium). The bone loss was accompanied by reduced serum estradiol levels and bone TGF-β3 content. Preventive and curative treatment with raloxifene ameliorated bony alterations and was more effective than CVD. Deprived estrogen levels (that in turn reduced lumbar TGF-β3 content) following PHT and SVP, thus, might represent one of the various mechanisms of AEDs-induced bone loss. Raloxifene preserved the bony changes without interfering with their antiepileptic efficacy, and hence raloxifene could be a potential therapeutic option in the management of PHT and SVP-induced bone disease if clinically approved.

Keywords: antiepileptic drugs, osteoporosis, raloxifene, TGF-β3

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Marcel Meinhardt, Manfred Keuser, Thomas Braml

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Cracking of reinforced concrete is a complex phenomenon induced by direct loads or restraints affecting reinforced concrete structures as soon as the tensile strength of the concrete is exceeded. Hence it is important to predict where cracks will be located and how they will propagate. The bond theory and the crack formulas in the actual design codes, for example, DIN EN 1992-1-1, are all based on the assumption that the reinforcement bars are embedded in homogeneous concrete without taking into account the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress situation. However, it can often be observed that real structures such as walls, slabs or beams show a crack spacing that is orientated to the transverse reinforcement bars or to the stirrups. In most Finite Element Analysis studies, the smeared crack approach is used for crack prediction. The disadvantage of this model is that the typical strain localization of a crack on element level can’t be seen. The crack propagation in concrete is a discontinuous process characterized by different factors such as the initial random distribution of defects or the scatter of material properties. Such behavior presupposes the elaboration of adequate models and methods of simulation because traditional mechanical approaches deal mainly with average material parameters. This paper concerned with the modelling of the initiation and the propagation of cracks in reinforced concrete structures considering the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress distribution in reinforced concrete (R/C) beams/plates in bending action. Therefore, a parameter study was carried out to investigate: (I) the influence of the transversal reinforcement to the stress distribution in concrete in bending mode and (II) the crack initiation in dependence of the diameter and distance of the transversal reinforcement to each other. The numerical investigations on the crack initiation and propagation were carried out with a 2D reinforced concrete structure subjected to quasi static loading and given boundary conditions. To model the uncertainty in the tensile strength of concrete in the Finite Element Analysis correlated normally and lognormally distributed random filed with different correlation lengths were generated. The paper also presents and discuss different methods to generate random fields, e.g. the Covariance Matrix Decomposition Method. For all computations, a plastic constitutive law with softening was used to model the crack initiation and the damage of the concrete in tension. It was found that the distributions of crack spacing and crack widths are highly dependent of the used random field. These distributions are validated to experimental studies on R/C panels which were carried out at the Laboratory for Structural Engineering at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. Also, a recommendation for parameters of the random field for realistic modelling the uncertainty of the tensile strength is given. The aim of this research was to show a method in which the localization of strains and cracks as well as the influence of transverse reinforcement on the crack initiation and propagation in Finite Element Analysis can be seen.

Keywords: crack initiation, crack modelling, crack propagation, cracks, numerical simulation, random fields, reinforced concrete, stochastic

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Maria Anjelica P. Ancheta, Roberto S. Soriano, Erickson L. Llaguno

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The main purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a significant relationship between socio-economic class and household water supply demand, through determining or verifying the factors governing water use consumption patterns of households from a sampling from different socio-economic classes in Metro Manila, the national capital region of the Philippines. This study is also an opportunity to augment the lack of local academic literature due to the very few publications on urban household water demand after 1999. In over 600 Metro Manila households, a rapid survey was conducted on their average monthly water consumption and habits on household water usage. The questions in the rapid survey were based on an extensive review of literature on urban household water demand. Sample households were divided into socio-economic classes A-B and C-D. Cluster analysis, dummy coding and outlier tests were done to prepare the data for regression analysis. Subsequently, backward stepwise regression analysis was used in order to determine different statistical models to describe the determinants of water consumption. The key finding of this study is that the socio-economic class of a household in Metro Manila is a significant factor in water consumption. A-B households consume more water in contrast to C-D families based on the mean average water consumption for A-B and C-D households are 36.75 m3 and 18.92 m3, respectively. The most significant proxy factors of socio-economic class that were related to household water consumption were examined in order to suggest improvements in policy formulation and household water demand management.

Keywords: household water uses, socio-economic classes, urban planning, urban water demand management

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Jelena Filipović, Milenko Košutić, Vladimir Filipović

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In the last decades, the urban population has been characterized by sedentary lifestyles, low physical activity, and "fast food". These changes in diet and physical nonactivity have been associated with an increase in chronic diseases. Bread is one of the most popular wheat products consumed worldwide. Spelt wheat has shown potential in various food applications, including bread, pasta, breakfast cereal, and other products of altered nutritional characteristics compared to conventional wheat products. It has very high protein content and even 30 to 60% higher concentration of mineral elements Fe, Zn, Cu, Mg and P compared to Triticum Aestivum. Spelt wheat is growing without the use of pesticides in harsh ecological conditions and it is an old cultivar. So it can be used for organic and health-safe food. Changes in the formulation of bread with the aim of improving its nutritional and functional properties usually lead to changes in the dough's properties, which are related to the quality of the finished product. The aim of this paper is to research the impact of adding yeast extract to bread on sensory characteristics and consumer acceptance of a new product as a key factor for the successful marketing of a distinct product. The sensory analysis of bread with 5% yeast extract is as follows: the technological quality is very good (3.8), and the color of the product is excellent (4.85). Based on data, consumers' survey declared that they liked the taste of bread with 5% yeast extract (74%), consumers marked the product as likable (70%), and 75% of the total number of respondents would buy this new product. This paper is promoting a type of bread with 5% yeast extract (Z score 0.80) to improve diet and a product intended for consumers conscious about their health and diet.

Keywords: bread, yeast extract, sensory analysis, consumer survey, score analysis

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Authors: Jie Gao

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The combination of chemotherapy with gene therapy is highly effective in cancer therapy. To achieve combined therapeutic effects in human gastric cancer over expressing EGFR, we developed targeted LPD (liposome-polycation-DNA complex) conjugated with anti-EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) Fab’ for co-delivery of doxorubicin (DOX) and ribonucleotide reductase M2 (RRM2) siRNA (DOX-RRM2-TLPD). The results showed that EGFR was over expressed in several gastric cancer cell lines and gastric cancer tissues. Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) results showed that RRM2 expression was significantly higher in gastric cancer than in non-gastric cancer tissue, and RRM2 siRNA inhibited the proliferation of several gastric cancer cells, indicating that RRM2 is a candidate target for gastric cancer therapy. Confocal studies and flow cytometry showed that DOX-RRM2-TLPD delivered DOX and RRM2 siRNA to EGFR over expressing gastric cancer cells specifically and efficiently both in vitro and in vivo, resulting in enhanced therapeutic effects (cytotoxicity and apoptosis) compared with single-drug loaded or non-targeted controls, including DOX-NC-TLPD (targeted LPD co-delivering DOX and negative control siRNA), RRM2-TLPD (targeted LPD delivering RRM2 siRNA) and DOX-RRM2-NTLPD (non-targeted LPD co-delivering DOX and RRM2 siRNA). The in vivo antitumor assay showed that the average weight of the gastric cancer in mice treated with DOX-RRM2-TLPD was significantly lighter than that of mice treated with other controls. DOX-RRM2-TLPD represents an effective approach for combined therapy of gastric cancer over expressing EGFR.

Keywords: gene therapy, chemotherapy, immunoliposomes, gastric cancer

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Authors: Muhammad Tayyab Afzal, Muhammad Arslan, Mirza Muhammad Waqar

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One of the key components of the water cycle is evapotranspiration (ET), which represents water consumption by vegetated and non-vegetated surfaces. Conventional techniques for measurements of ET are point based and representative of the local scale only. Satellite remote sensing data with large area coverage and high temporal frequency provide representative measurements of several relevant biophysical parameters required for estimation of ET at regional scales. The objective is of this research is to exploit satellite data in order to estimate evapotranspiration. This study uses Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model to calculate daily actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in Larkana District, Sindh Pakistan using Landsat TM data for clouds-free days. As there is no flux tower in the study area for direct measurement of latent heat flux or evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux, therefore, the model estimated values of ET were compared with reference evapotranspiration (ETo) computed by FAO-56 Penman Monteith Method using meteorological data. For a country like Pakistan, agriculture by irrigation in the river basins is the largest user of fresh water. For the better assessment and management of irrigation water requirement, the estimation of consumptive use of water for agriculture is very important because it is the main consumer of water. ET is yet an essential issue of water imbalance due to major loss of irrigation water and precipitation on cropland. As large amount of irrigated water is lost through ET, therefore its accurate estimation can be helpful for efficient management of irrigation water. Results of this study can be used to analyse surface conditions, i.e. temperature, energy budgets and relevant characteristics. Through this information we can monitor vegetation health and suitable agricultural conditions and can take controlling steps to increase agriculture production.

Keywords: SEBS, remote sensing, evapotranspiration, ETa

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Authors: Rohini Hariharan, Yazhini R, Bhamidipati Naga Shrikarti

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In the realm of cricket, particularly within the context of the Indian Premier League (IPL), the ability to predict team scores accurately holds significant importance for both cricket enthusiasts and stakeholders alike. This paper presents a comprehensive study on IPL score prediction utilizing various machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), XGBoost, Multiple Regression, Linear Regression, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest. Through meticulous data preprocessing, feature engineering, and model selection, we aimed to develop a robust predictive framework capable of forecasting team scores with high precision. Our experimentation involved the analysis of historical IPL match data encompassing diverse match and player statistics. Leveraging this data, we employed state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to train and evaluate the performance of each model. Notably, Multiple Regression emerged as the top-performing algorithm, achieving an impressive accuracy of 77.19% and a precision of 54.05% (within a threshold of +/- 10 runs). This research contributes to the advancement of sports analytics by demonstrating the efficacy of machine learning in predicting IPL team scores. The findings underscore the potential of advanced predictive modeling techniques to provide valuable insights for cricket enthusiasts, team management, and betting agencies. Additionally, this study serves as a benchmark for future research endeavors aimed at enhancing the accuracy and interpretability of IPL score prediction models.

Keywords: indian premier league (IPL), cricket, score prediction, machine learning, support vector machines (SVM), xgboost, multiple regression, linear regression, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest, sports analytics

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Authors: Abdul Azarrudin M. A., Pothiraj K., Kandasamy Satish

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In the current automobile scenario, there comes a demand on more sophistication and comfort drive feel on passenger segments. The clutch pedal effort is one such customer touch feels in manual transmission vehicles, where the driver continuous to operate the clutch pedal in his entire the driving maneuvers. Hence optimum pedal efforts at green condition and over mileage to be ensured for fatigue free the driving. As friction is one the predominant factor and its tendency to challenge the technicality by causing the function degradation. One such semi-hydraulic systems shows load efficiency of about 70-75% over lifetime only due to the increase in friction which leads to the increase in pedal effort and cause fatigue to the vehicle driver. This work deals with the study of friction with different interfaces and its influence in the fulcrum points over mileage, with the objective of understanding the trend over mileage and determining the alternative ways of resolving it. In that one way of methodology is the reduction of friction by experimental investigation of various friction reduction interfaces like metal-to-metal interface and it has been tried out and is detailed further. Also, the specific attention has been put up considering the fulcrum load and its contact interfaces to move on with this study. The main results of the experimental data with the influence of three different contact interfaces are being presented with an ultimate intention of ending up into less fatigue with longer consistent pedal effort, thus smoothens the operation of the end user. The Experimental validation also has been done through rig-level test setup to depict the performance at static condition and in-parallel vehicle level test has also been performed to record the additional influences if any.

Keywords: automobile, clutch, friction, fork

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: F. Q. Shao, W. Q. Wang, Y. Yin, T. P. Yu, D. B. Zou, J. M. Ouyang

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The Radiation Pressure Acceleration (RPA) mechanism is very promising in laser-driven ion acceleration because of high laser-ion energy conversion efficiency. Although some experiments have shown the characteristics of RPA, the energy of ions is quite limited. The ion energy obtained in experiments is only several MeV/u, which is much lower than theoretical prediction. One possible limiting factor is the transverse instability incited in the RPA process. The transverse instability is basically considered as the Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability, which is a kind of interfacial instability and occurs when a light fluid pushes against a heavy fluid. Multi-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations show that the onset of transverse instability will destroy the acceleration process and broaden the energy spectrum of fast ions during the RPA dominant ion acceleration processes. The evidence of the RT instability driven by radiation pressure has been observed in a laser-foil interaction experiment in a typical RPA regime, and the dominant scale of RT instability is close to the laser wavelength. The development of transverse instability in the radiation-pressure-acceleration dominant laser-foil interaction is numerically examined by two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations. When a laser interacts with a foil with modulated surface, the internal instability is quickly incited and it develops. The linear growth and saturation of the transverse instability are observed, and the growth rate is numerically diagnosed. In order to optimize interaction parameters, a method of information entropy is put forward to describe the chaotic degree of the transverse instability. With moderate modulation, the transverse instability shows a low chaotic degree and a quasi-monoenergetic proton beam is produced.

Keywords: information entropy, radiation pressure acceleration, Rayleigh-Taylor instability, transverse instability

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Aniketh Ravukutam, Rajath Rao M., Pradyumna S. A.

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In the past few decades there has been great advancement in use of aerodynamics in cars. Now its use has been evident from commercial cars to race cars for achieving higher speeds, stability and efficiency. This paper focusses on studying the effects of aerodynamics in Formula Student car. These cars weigh around 200kgs with an average speed of 60kmph. With increasing competition every year, developing a competitive car is a herculean task. The race track comprises mostly of tight corners and little or no straights thus testing the car’s cornering capabilities. Higher cornering speeds can be achieved by increasing traction at the tires. Studying the aerodynamics helps in achieving higher traction without much addition in overall weight of car. The main focus is to develop an aerodynamic package involving front wing, under tray and body to obtain an optimum value of down force. The initial process involves the detail study of geometrical constraints mentioned in the rule book and calculating the limiting value of drag as per the engine specifications. The successive steps involve conduction of various iterations in ANSYS for selection of airfoils, deciding the number of elements, designing the nose for low drag, channelizing the flow under the body and obtain an optimum value of down force within the limits defined in the initial process. The final step involves design of model using these results in Virtual environment called OptimumLap® for detailed study of performance with and without the presence of aerodynamics. The CFD analysis results showed an overall down force of 377.44N with a drag of 164.08N. The corresponding parameters of the last model were applied in OptimumLap® and an improvement of 3.5 seconds in lap times was observed.

Keywords: aerodynamics, formula student, traction, front wing, undertray, body, rule book, drag, down force, virtual environment, computational fluid dynamics (CFD)

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Authors: Melike Sultan Karasu Asnaz, Ayse Ozdogan Dolcek

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Crop drying, which aims to reduce the moisture content to a certain level, is a method used to extend the shelf life and prevent it from spoiling. One of the oldest food preservation techniques is open sunor shade drying. Even though this technique is the most affordable of all drying methods, there are some drawbacks such as contamination by insects, environmental pollution, windborne dust, and direct expose to weather conditions such as wind, rain, hail. However, solar dryers that provide a hygienic and controllable environment to preserve food and extend its shelf life have been developed and used to dry agricultural products. Thus, foods can be dried quickly without being affected by weather variables, and quality products can be obtained. This research is mainly devoted to investigating the modelling of drying kinetics of cantaloupe in a forced convection solar dryer. Mathematical models for the drying process should be defined to simulate the drying behavior of the foodstuff, which will greatly contribute to the development of solar dryer designs. Thus, drying experiments were conducted and replicated five times, and various data such as temperature, relative humidity, solar irradiation, drying air speed, and weight were instantly monitored and recorded. Moisture content of sliced and pretreated cantaloupe were converted into moisture ratio and then fitted against drying time for constructing drying curves. Then, 10 quasi-theoretical and empirical drying models were applied to find the best drying curve equation according to the Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear optimization method. The best fitted mathematical drying model was selected according to the highest coefficient of determination (R²), and the mean square of the deviations (χ^²) and root mean square error (RMSE) criterial. The best fitted model was utilized to simulate a thin layer solar drying of cantaloupe, and the simulation results were compared with the experimental data for validation purposes.

Keywords: solar dryer, mathematical modelling, drying kinetics, cantaloupe drying

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Authors: Javad Saeidaskari, Nader Khalafian

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The undesirable impact of vibrations induced by road and railway traffic is an important concern in modern world. These vibrations are transmitted through soil and cause disturbances to the residence area and high-tech production facilities alongside the train/traffic lines. In this paper for the first time a new method of soil improvement with vibration absorber material, is used to increase the damping factor, in other word, to reduce the ability of wave transitions in sand. In this study standard Firoozkooh No. 161 sand is used as the host sand. The semi rigid polyurethane (PU) foam which used in this research is one of the common materials for vibration absorbing purposes. Series of cyclic triaxial tests were conducted on remolded samples with identical relative density of 70% of maximum dry density for different volume percentage of shredded PU foam. The frequency of tests was 0.1 Htz with shear strain of 0.37% and 0.75% and also the effective confining pressures during the tests were 100 kPa and 350 kPa. In order to find out the best soil-PU foam mixture, different volume percent of PU foam varying from 10% to 30% were examined. The results show that adding PU foam up to 20%, as its optimum content, causes notable enhancement in damping ratio for both shear strains of 0.37% (52.19% and 69% increase for effective confining pressures of 100 kPa and 350 kPa, respectively) and 0.75% (59.56% and 59.11% increase for effective confining pressures of 100 kPa and 350 kPa, respectively). The results related to shear modulus present significant reduction for both shear strains of 0.37% (82.22% and 56.03% decrease for effective confining pressures of 100 kPa and 350 kPa, respectively) and 0.75% (89.32% and 39.9% decrease for effective confining pressures of 100 kPa and 350 kPa, respectively). In conclusion, shredded PU foams effectively affect the dynamic properties of sand and act as vibration absorber in soil.

Keywords: polyurethane foam, sand, damping ratio, shear modulus

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Garima Singh

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Objectives: Behavioral Crisis Center (BCC) is a community solution to a community problem. There has been an exponential increase in the incidence and prevalence of mental health crises around the world. The effects of the crisis negatively impact our patients and their families and strain the law enforcement and emergency room. The goal of the multi-disciplinary care model is to break the crisis cycle and provide 24-7 rapid access to an acre and crisis stabilization. We initiated our first BCC care center in 2020 in the midst of the COVID pandemic and have seen a remarkable improvement in patient ‘care and positive financial outcome. Background: Mental illnesses are common in the United States. Nearly one in five U.S. adults live with a mental illness (52.9 million in 2020). This number represented 21.0% of all U.S. adults. To address some of these challenges and help our community, In May 2020, we opened our first Behavioral crisis center (BCC). Since then, we have served more than 2500 patients and is the first southwest Missouri’s first 24/7 facility for crisis–level behavioral health and substance use needs. It has been proven to be a more effective place than emergency departments, jails, or local law enforcement. Methods: BCC was started in 2020 to serve the unmet need of the community and provide access to behavioral health and substance use services identified in the community. Funding was possible with significant investment from the county and Missouri Foundation for Health, with contributions from medical partners. It is a multi-disciplinary care center consisting of Physicians, nurse practitioners, nurses, behavioral technicians, peer support specialists, clinical intake specialists, and clinical coordinators and hospitality specialists. The center provides services including psychiatry care, outpatient therapy, community support services, primary care, peer support and engagement. It is connected to a residential treatment facility for substance use treatment for continuity of care and bridging the gap, which has resulted in the completion of treatment and better outcomes. Results: BCC has proven to be a great resource to the community and the Missouri Health Coalition is providing funding to replicate the model in other regions and work on a similar model for children and adolescents. Overall, 29% of the patients seen at BCC are stabilized and discharged with outpatient care. 50% needed acute stabilization in a hospital setting and 21% required long-term admission, mostly for substance use treatment. The local emergency room had a 42% reduction in behavioral health encounters compared to the previous 3 years. Also, by a quick transfer to BCC, the average stay in ER was reduced by 10 hours and time to follow up behavioral health assessment decreased by an average of 4 hours. Uninsured patients are also provided Medicaid application assistance which has benefited 55% of individuals receiving care at BCC. Conclusions: BCC is impacting community health and improving access to quality care and substance use treatment. It is a great investment for our patients and families.

Keywords: BCC, behvaioral health, community health care, addiction treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Mahmoud Roushdy, Mohamed El Naggar, Ahmed Yehia Abdelaziz

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Anchored sheet pile has been used worldwide as front quay walls for decades. With the increase in vessel drafts and weights, those sheet pile walls need to be upgraded by increasing the depth of the dredging line in front of the wall. A system has recently been used to increase the depth in front of the wall by installing a separated platform supported on a deep foundation (so called Relieving Platform) behind the sheet pile wall. The platform is structurally separated from the front wall. This paper presents a numerical investigation utilizing finite element analysis on the behavior of separated relieve platforms installed within existing anchored sheet pile quay walls. The investigation was done in two steps: a verification step followed by a parametric study. In the verification step, the numerical model was verified based on field measurements performed by others. The validated model was extended within the parametric study to a series of models with different backfill soils, separation gap width, and number of pile rows supporting the platform. The results of the numerical investigation show that using stiff clay as backfill soil (neglecting consolidation) gives better performance for the front wall and the first pile row adjacent to sandy backfills. The degree of compaction of the sandy backfill slightly increases lateral deformations but reduces bending moment acting on pile rows, while the effect is minor on the front wall. In addition, the increase in the separation gap width gradually increases bending moments on the front wall regardless of the backfill soil type, while this effect is reversed on pile rows (gradually decrease). Finally, the paper studies the possibility of reducing the number of pile rows along with the separation to take advantage of the positive separation effect on piles.

Keywords: anchored sheet pile, relieving platform, separation gap, upgrade quay wall

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Kedar Vishnu, Parmod Kumar

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India is becoming most favored retail destination in the world. The organized retail has presented many opportunities to farmers to increase income by shifting cropping pattern from food grains to commercial crops. Previous research revealed potential benefits for farmers by supplying fruits and vegetables to organized retail channels. However the supply of fruits and vegetables from small and marginal farmers remain low than expected. The main objective of this paper is to identify the factors determining market participation of smallholder farmers in modern organized retail chains. Attempt is also made to find out factors influencing the choice of participation in particular organized retail collection centers as compared to other organized retail. The paper was based on primary survey of 40 Beans and Tomato farmers who supply to organized retail collection centers from Karnataka, India. Multiple regression technique is used to identify the factors determining quantity sold at collection centers. The regression result, show that area under vegetables, yield, and price from modern collection center and having access to technical help were found significantly affecting quantity sold into modern organized retail channels. On the opposite, increased rejection rates and vegetable prices at APMC were found influencing farmers decision into the reverse side. Empirical result of the multinomial logit model show that Reliance fresh has tendency to prefer large farmers who can supply more quality and better quantity compared with TESCO and More collection centers. The negative sign of area, having access to technical help, transportation cost, and number of bore wells led to higher probability of farmers to participate in Reliance Fresh collection centers as compared with More and TESCO.

Keywords: fruits, vegetables, organized retail markets, multinomial logit model

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Frederick Huie, Lauren Fusfeld, William Burchenal, Scott Howell, Alyssa McVey, Thomas F. Goss

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Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease characterized by memory loss and cognitive decline that presents a substantial economic burden for patients and health insurers in the US. This study evaluates the payer budget impact of the DISCERN™ test in the diagnosis and management of patients with symptoms of dementia evaluated for AD. DISCERN™ comprises three assays that assess critical factors related to AD that regulate memory, formation of synaptic connections among neurons, and levels of amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain and can provide a quicker, more accurate diagnosis than tests in the current diagnostic pathway (CDP). An Excel-based model with a three-year horizon was developed to assess the budget impact of DISCERN™ compared with CDP in a Medicare Advantage plan with 1M beneficiaries. Model parameters were identified through a literature review and were verified through consultation with clinicians experienced in diagnosis and management of AD. The model assesses direct medical costs/savings for patients based on the following categories: •Diagnosis: costs of diagnosis using DISCERN™ and CDP. •False Negative (FN) diagnosis: incremental cost of care avoidable with a correct AD diagnosis and appropriately directed medication. •True Positive (TP) diagnosis: AD medication costs; cost from a later TP diagnosis with the CDP versus DISCERN™ in the year of diagnosis, and savings from the delay in AD progression due to appropriate AD medication in patients who are correctly diagnosed after a FN diagnosis.•False Positive (FP) diagnosis: cost of AD medication for patients who do not have AD. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effect of varying key clinical and cost parameters ±10%. An additional scenario analysis was developed to evaluate the impact of individual inputs. In the base scenario, DISCERN™ is estimated to decrease costs by $4.75M over three years, equating to approximately $63.11 saved per test per year for a cohort followed over three years. While the diagnosis cost is higher with DISCERN™ than with CDP modalities, this cost is offset by the higher overall costs associated with CDP due to the longer time needed to receive a TP diagnosis and the larger number of patients who receive a FN diagnosis and progress more rapidly than if they had received appropriate AD medication. The sensitivity analysis shows that the three parameters with the greatest impact on savings are: reduced sensitivity of DISCERN™, improved sensitivity of the CDP, and a reduction in the percentage of disease progression that is avoided with appropriate AD medication. A scenario analysis in which DISCERN™ reduces the utilization for patients of computed tomography from 21% in the base case to 16%, magnetic resonance imaging from 37% to 27% and cerebrospinal fluid biomarker testing, positive emission tomography, electroencephalograms, and polysomnography testing from 4%, 5%, 10%, and 8%, respectively, in the base case to 0%, results in an overall three-year net savings of $14.5M. DISCERN™ improves the rate of accurate, definitive diagnosis of AD earlier in the disease and may generate savings for Medicare Advantage plans.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, budget, dementia, diagnosis.

Procedia PDF Downloads 128