Search results for: dynamic stall model

Authors: Li Jie, Zhang Wei

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of posture stabilization for a kinematic model of differential drive robots is studied. A more complex model of the kinematics of differential drive robots is used for the design of stabilizing control. This model is formulated in terms of the physical parameters of the system such as the radius of the wheels, and velocity of the wheels are the control inputs of it. In this paper, the framework of Lyapunov-based control design has been used to solve posture stabilization problem for the comprehensive model of differential drive robots. The results of the simulations show that the devised controller successfully solves the posture regulation problem. Finally, robustness and performance of the controller have been studied under system parameter uncertainty.

Keywords: Differential drive robots, nonlinear control, Lyapunov-based control design, posture regulation.

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Authors: Ho Young Son, Bu Seog Ju, Woo Young Jung

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This study presents the seismic safety evaluation of weir structure subjected to strong earthquake ground motions, as a flood defense structure in civil engineering structures. The seismic safety analysis procedure was illustrated through development of Finite Element (FE) and InFinite Element (IFE) method in ABAQUS platform. The IFE model was generated by CINPS4, 4-node linear one-way infinite model as a sold continuum infinite element in foundation areas of the weir structure and then nonlinear FE model using friction model for soil-structure interactions was applied in this study. In order to understand the complex behavior of weir structures, nonlinear time history analysis was carried out. Consequently, it was interesting to note that the compressive stress gave more vulnerability to the weir structure, in comparison to the tensile stress, during an earthquake. The stress concentration of the weir structure was shown at the connection area between the weir body and stilling basin area. The stress both tension and compression was reduced in IFE model rather than FE model of weir structures.

Keywords: Weir, Finite Element, Infinite Element, Nonlinear, Earthquake.

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Authors: M. Kamal M. Shah, Noorhifiantylaily Ahmad, O. Irma Wani, J. Sahari

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This paper presents the computationally mechanics analysis of energy absorption for cylindrical and square thin wall tubed structure by using ABAQUS/explicit. The crashworthiness behavior of AISI 1020 mild steel thin-walled tube under axial loading has been studied. The influence effects of different model’s cross-section, as well as model length on the crashworthiness behavior of thin-walled tube, are investigated. The model was placed on loading platform under axial loading with impact velocity of 5 m/s to obtain the deformation results of each model under quasi-static loading. The results showed that model undergoes different deformation mode exhibits different energy absorption performance.

Keywords: Axial loading, energy absorption performance, computational mechanics, crashworthiness behavior, deformation mode, thin-walled tubes.

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Authors: M. Y. Ismail, M. Inam

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and analysis of Liquid Crystal (LC) based tunable reflectarray antenna with slot embedded patch element configurations within X-band frequency range. The slots are shown to modify the surface current distribution on the patch element of reflectarray which causes the resonant patch element to provide different resonant frequencies depending on the slot dimensions. The simulated results are supported and verified by waveguide scattering parameter measurements of different reflectarray unit cells. Different rectangular slots on patch element have been fabricated and a change in resonant frequency from 10.46GHz to 8.78GHz has been demonstrated as the width of the rectangular slot is varied from 0.2W to 0.6W. The rectangular slot in the center of the patch element has also been utilized for the frequency tunable reflectarray antenna design based on K-15 Nematic LC. For the active reflectarray antenna design, a frequency tunability of 1.2% from 10GHz to 9.88GHz has been demonstrated with a dynamic phase range of 103° provided by the measured scattering parameter results. Time consumed by liquid crystals for reconfiguration, which is one of the drawback of LC based design, has also been disused in this paper.

Keywords: Liquid crystal, tunable reflectarray, frequency tunability, dynamic phase range.

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Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

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A class of implicit systems is known as a more generalized class of systems than a class of explicit systems. To establish a control method for such a generalized class of systems, we adopt model predictive control method which is a kind of optimal feedback control with a performance index that has a moving initial time and terminal time. However, model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems whose all state variables are not exactly known. In other words, model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems with limited measurable states. In fact, it is usual that the state variables of systems are measured through outputs, hence, only limited parts of them can be used directly. It is also usual that output signals are disturbed by process and sensor noises. Hence, it is important to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear implicit systems with taking the process noise and sensor noise into consideration. To this purpose, we apply the model predictive control method and unscented Kalman filter for solving the optimization and estimation problems of nonlinear implicit systems, respectively. The objective of this study is to establish a model predictive control with unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear implicit systems.

Keywords: Model predictive control, unscented Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, implicit systems.

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Authors: Samy Sadek, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Bernd Michaelis, Usama Sayed

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In this paper, we propose a supervised method for color image classification based on a multilevel sigmoidal neural network (MSNN) model. In this method, images are classified into five categories, i.e., “Car", “Building", “Mountain", “Farm" and “Coast". This classification is performed without any segmentation processes. To verify the learning capabilities of the proposed method, we compare our MSNN model with the traditional Sigmoidal Neural Network (SNN) model. Results of comparison have shown that the MSNN model performs better than the traditional SNN model in the context of training run time and classification rate. Both color moments and multi-level wavelets decomposition technique are used to extract features from images. The proposed method has been tested on a variety of real and synthetic images.

Keywords: Image classification, multi-level neural networks, feature extraction, wavelets decomposition.

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Authors: Nawang Chhunid, Gagnesh Kumar

Abstract:

On-chip memories consume a significant portion of the overall die space and power in modern microprocessors. On-chip caches depend on Static Random-Access Memory (SRAM) cells and scaling of technology occurring as per Moore’s law. Unfortunately, the scaling is affecting stability, performance, and leakage power which will become major problems for future SRAMs in aggressive nanoscale technologies due to increasing device mismatch and variations. 3T1D Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM) cell is a non-destructive read DRAM cell with three transistors and a gated diode. In 3T1D DRAM cell gated diode (D1) acts as a storage device and also as an amplifier, which leads to fast read access. Due to its high tolerance to process variation, high density, and low cost of memory as compared to 6T SRAM cell, it is universally used by the advanced microprocessor for on chip data and program memory. In the present paper, it has been shown that 3T1D DRAM cell can perform better in terms of fast read access as compared to 6T, 4T, 3T SRAM cells, respectively.

Keywords: DRAM cell, read access time, tanner EDA tool write access time and retention time, average power dissipation.

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Authors: Sarra Roubi, Mohammed Erramdani, Samir Mbarki

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This paper presents an approach for the model-driven generating of Rich Internet Application (RIA) focusing on the graphical aspect. We used well known Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) frameworks and technologies, such as Eclipse Modeling Framework (EMF), Graphical Modeling Framework (GMF), Query View Transformation (QVTo) and Acceleo to enable the design and the code automatic generation of the RIA. During the development of the approach, we focused on the graphical aspect of the application in terms of interfaces while opting for the Model View Presenter pattern that is designed for graphics interfaces. The paper describes the process followed to define the approach, the supporting tool and presents the results from a case study.

Keywords: Code generation, Design Pattern, metamodel, Model Driven Engineering, MVP, Rich Internet Application, transformation, User Interface.

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Authors: I. A Tijani, Y. F Wu, C.W. Lim

Abstract:

Concrete Damaged Plasticity Model (CDPM) is capable of modeling the stress-strain behavior of confined concrete. Nevertheless, the accuracy of the model largely depends on its parameters. To date, most research works mainly focus on the identification and modification of the parameters for fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) confined concrete prior to damage. And, it has been established that the FRP-strengthened concrete behaves differently to FRP-repaired concrete. This paper presents a modified plastic damage model within the context of the CDPM in ABAQUS for modelling of a uniformly FRP-confined repaired concrete under monotonic loading. The proposed model includes infliction damage, elastic stiffness, yield criterion and strain hardening rule. The distinct feature of damaged concrete is elastic stiffness reduction; this is included in the model. Meanwhile, the test results were obtained from a physical testing of repaired concrete. The dilation model is expressed as a function of the lateral stiffness of the FRP-jacket. The finite element predictions are shown to be in close agreement with the obtained test results of the repaired concrete. It was observed from the study that with necessary modifications, finite element method is capable of modeling FRP-repaired concrete structures.

Keywords: Concrete, FRP, damage, repairing, plasticity, and finite element method.

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Authors: S. Sfarni, E. Bellenger, J. Fortin, M. Guessasma

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The use of the mechanical simulation (in particular the finite element analysis) requires the management of assumptions in order to analyse a real complex system. In finite element analysis (FEA), two modeling steps require assumptions to be able to carry out the computations and to obtain some results: the building of the physical model and the building of the simulation model. The simplification assumptions made on the analysed system in these two steps can generate two kinds of errors: the physical modeling errors (mathematical model, domain simplifications, materials properties, boundary conditions and loads) and the mesh discretization errors. This paper proposes a mesh adaptive method based on the use of an h-adaptive scheme in combination with an error estimator in order to choose the mesh of the simulation model. This method allows us to choose the mesh of the simulation model in order to control the cost and the quality of the finite element analysis.

Keywords: Finite element, discretization errors, adaptivity.

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Authors: Nermin Sökmen

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An effort estimation model is needed for softwareintensive projects that consist of hardware, embedded software or some combination of the two, as well as high level software solutions. This paper first focuses on functional decomposition techniques to measure functional complexity of a computer system and investigates its impact on system development effort. Later, it examines effects of technical difficulty and design team capability factors in order to construct the best effort estimation model. With using traditional regression analysis technique, the study develops a system development effort estimation model which takes functional complexity, technical difficulty and design team capability factors as input parameters. Finally, the assumptions of the model are tested.

Keywords: Functional complexity, functional decomposition, development effort, technical difficulty, design team capability, regression analysis.

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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Many quality models have been used to measure egovernment portals quality. However, the absence of an international consensus for e-government portals quality models results in many differences in terms of quality attributes and measures. The aim of this paper is to compare and analyze the existing e-government quality models proposed in literature (those that are based on ISO standards and those that are not) in order to propose guidelines to build a good and useful e-government portals quality model. Our findings show that, there is no e-government portal quality model based on the new international standard ISO 25010. Besides that, the quality models are not based on a best practice model to allow agencies to both; measure e-government portals quality and identify missing best practices for those portals.

Keywords: E-government, portal, best practices, quality model, ISO, standard, ISO 25010, ISO 9126.

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Authors: Indunil Jayatilake, Warna Karunasena, Weena Lokuge

Abstract:

An Australian manufacturer has fabricated an innovative GFRP sandwich panel made from E-glass fiber skin and a modified phenolic core for structural applications. Debonding, which refers to separation of skin from the core material in composite sandwiches, is one of the most common types of damage in composites. The presence of debonding is of great concern because it not only severely affects the stiffness but also modifies the dynamic behaviour of the structure. Generally it is seen that the majority of research carried out has been concerned about the delamination of laminated structures whereas skin-core debonding has received relatively minor attention. Furthermore it is observed that research done on composite slabs having multiple skin-core debonding is very limited. To address this gap, a comprehensive research investigating dynamic behaviour of composite panels with single and multiple debonding is presented. The study uses finite-element modelling and analyses for investigating the influence of debonding on free vibration behaviour of single and multilayer composite sandwich panels. A broad parametric investigation has been carried out by varying debonding locations, debonding sizes and support conditions of the panels in view of both single and multiple debonding. Numerical models were developed with Strand7 finite element package by innovatively selecting the suitable elements to diligently represent their actual behavior. Three-dimensional finite element models were employed to simulate the physically real situation as close as possible, with the use of an experimentally and numerically validated finite element model. Comparative results and conclusions based on the analyses are presented. For similar extents and locations of debonding, the effect of debonding on natural frequencies appears greatly dependent on the end conditions of the panel, giving greater decrease in natural frequency when the panels are more restrained. Some modes are more sensitive to debonding and this sensitivity seems to be related to their vibration mode shapes. The fundamental mode seems generally the least sensitive mode to debonding with respect to the variation in free vibration characteristics. The results indicate the effectiveness of the developed three dimensional finite element models in assessing debonding damage in composite sandwich panels.

Keywords: Debonding, free vibration behaviour, GFRP sandwich panels, three dimensional finite element modelling.

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Authors: Bubaker M. F. Bushofa, Abdel Hafez A. Azab

Abstract:

This article is based on the technique which is called Discrete Parameter Tracking (DPT). First introduced by A. A. Azab [8] which is applicable for less order reference model. The order of the reference model is (n-l) and n is the number of the adjustable parameters in the physical plant. The technique utilizes a modified gradient method [9] where the knowledge of the exact order of the nonadaptive system is not required, so, as to eliminate the identification problem. The applicability of the mentioned technique (DPT) was examined through the solution of several problems. This article introduces the solution of a third order system with three adjustable parameters, controlled according to second order reference model. The adjustable parameters have great initial error which represent condition. Computer simulations for the solution and analysis are provided to demonstrate the simplicity and feasibility of the technique.

Keywords: Adaptive Control System, Discrete Parameter Tracking, Discrete Time Model.

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Authors: K. Saravanan

Abstract:

An electrical power system has some negative aspects such as flickering and deviations of voltage/power. This can be eliminated using energy storage devices that will provide a backup energy at the time of voltage/power deviations. Energy-storage devices get charging when system voltage/power is higher than reference value and discharging when system voltage/power is lower than reference value, it is acting as catalysts to provide energy boost. In this paper, a dynamic control of Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC) integrated with superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) is developed to improve the power quality, power oscillation damping, and dynamic voltage stability through the transmission line. UPFC inter-connected to SMES through an interface with DC-DC chopper. This inter-connected system is capable of injecting (absorbing) the real and reactive power into (from) the system at the beginning of stability problems. In this paper, the simulation results of UPFC integrated with SMES and UPFC integrated with fuel cells (FCs) are compared using MATLAB/Simulink software package.

Keywords: UPFC, SMES, power system stability, flexible ac transmission systems, fuel cells, chopper.

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Authors: Insung Jung, Gi-Nam Wang

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to a design of pattern classification model based on the back-propagation (BP) algorithm for decision support system. Standard BP model has done full connection of each node in the layers from input to output layers. Therefore, it takes a lot of computing time and iteration computing for good performance and less accepted error rate when we are doing some pattern generation or training the network. However, this model is using exclusive connection in between hidden layer nodes and output nodes. The advantage of this model is less number of iteration and better performance compare with standard back-propagation model. We simulated some cases of classification data and different setting of network factors (e.g. hidden layer number and nodes, number of classification and iteration). During our simulation, we found that most of simulations cases were satisfied by BP based using exclusive connection network model compared to standard BP. We expect that this algorithm can be available to identification of user face, analysis of data, mapping data in between environment data and information.

Keywords: Neural network, Back-propagation, classification.

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Authors: Anupama Pande, Ashok Kumar Thakur, Swapnoneel Roy

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A complex valued neural network is a neural network which consists of complex valued input and/or weights and/or thresholds and/or activation functions. Complex-valued neural networks have been widening the scope of applications not only in electronics and informatics, but also in social systems. One of the most important applications of the complex valued neural network is in signal processing. In Neural networks, generalized mean neuron model (GMN) is often discussed and studied. The GMN includes a new aggregation function based on the concept of generalized mean of all the inputs to the neuron. This paper aims to present exhaustive results of using Generalized Mean Neuron model in a complex-valued neural network model that uses the back-propagation algorithm (called -Complex-BP-) for learning. Our experiments results demonstrate the effectiveness of a Generalized Mean Neuron Model in a complex plane for signal processing over a real valued neural network. We have studied and stated various observations like effect of learning rates, ranges of the initial weights randomly selected, error functions used and number of iterations for the convergence of error required on a Generalized Mean neural network model. Some inherent properties of this complex back propagation algorithm are also studied and discussed.

Keywords: Complex valued neural network, Generalized Meanneuron model, Signal processing.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Razzazi, Maryam Bayat

Abstract:

Selection of the best possible set of suppliers has a significant impact on the overall profitability and success of any business. For this reason, it is usually necessary to optimize all business processes and to make use of cost-effective alternatives for additional savings. This paper proposes a new efficient context-aware supplier selection model that takes into account possible changes of the environment while significantly reducing selection costs. The proposed model is based on data clustering techniques while inspiring certain principles of online algorithms for an optimally selection of suppliers. Unlike common selection models which re-run the selection algorithm from the scratch-line for any decision-making sub-period on the whole environment, our model considers the changes only and superimposes it to the previously defined best set of suppliers to obtain a new best set of suppliers. Therefore, any recomputation of unchanged elements of the environment is avoided and selection costs are consequently reduced significantly. A numerical evaluation confirms applicability of this model and proves that it is a more optimal solution compared with common static selection models in this field.

Keywords: Supplier Selection, Context-Awareness, OnlineAlgorithms, Data Clustering.

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Authors: Arkady Bolotin

Abstract:

Dichotomization of the outcome by a single cut-off point is an important part of various medical studies. Usually the relationship between the resulted dichotomized dependent variable and explanatory variables is analyzed with linear regression, probit regression or logistic regression. However, in many real-life situations, a certain cut-off point dividing the outcome into two groups is unknown and can be specified only approximately, i.e. surrounded by some (small) uncertainty. It means that in order to have any practical meaning the regression model must be robust to this uncertainty. In this paper, we show that neither the beta in the linear regression model, nor its significance level is robust to the small variations in the dichotomization cut-off point. As an alternative robust approach to the problem of uncertain medical categories, we propose to use the linear regression model with the fuzzy membership function as a dependent variable. This fuzzy membership function denotes to what degree the value of the underlying (continuous) outcome falls below or above the dichotomization cut-off point. In the paper, we demonstrate that the linear regression model of the fuzzy dependent variable can be insensitive against the uncertainty in the cut-off point location. In the paper we present the modeling results from the real study of low hemoglobin levels in infants. We systematically test the robustness of the binomial regression model and the linear regression model with the fuzzy dependent variable by changing the boundary for the category Anemia and show that the behavior of the latter model persists over a quite wide interval.

Keywords: Categorization, Uncertain medical categories, Binomial regression model, Fuzzy dependent variable, Robustness.

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Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy

Abstract:

The paper presents a one-dimensional transient mathematical model of thermal oil-water two-phase emulsion flows in pipes. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for the continuous fluid and droplet phases are solved. Two friction correlations for the continuous fluid phase to wall friction are accounted for in the model and tested. The aerodynamic drag force between the continuous fluid phase and droplets is modeled, too. The density and viscosity of both phases are assumed to be constant due to adiabatic experimental conditions. The proposed mathematical model is validated on the experimental measurements of oil-water emulsion flows in horizontal pipe [1,2]. Numerical analysis on single- and two-phase oil-water flows in a pipe is presented in the paper. The continuous oil flow having water droplets is simulated. Predictions, which are performed by using the presented model, show excellent agreement with the experimental data if the water fraction is equal or less than 10%. Disagreement between simulations and measurements is increased if the water fraction is larger than 10%.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Oil-Water, Pipe flows.

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Authors: Greg Turner, Bin Lu, Cheer-Sun Yang

Abstract:

As computing technology advances, smartphone applications can assist student learning in a pervasive way. For example, the idea of using mobile apps for the PA Common Trees, Pests, Pathogens, in the field as a reference tool allows middle school students to learn about trees and associated pests/pathogens without bringing a textbook. While working on the development of three heterogeneous mobile apps, we ran into numerous challenges. Both the traditional waterfall model and the more modern agile methodologies failed in practice. The waterfall model emphasizes the planning of the duration for each phase. When the duration of each phase is not consistent with the availability of developers, the waterfall model cannot be employed. When applying Agile Methodologies, we cannot maintain the high frequency of the iterative development review process, known as ‘sprints’. In this paper, we discuss the challenges and solutions. We propose a hybrid model known as the Relay Race Methodology to reflect the concept of racing and relaying during the process of software development in practice. Based on the development project, we observe that the modeling of the relay race transition between any two phases is manifested naturally. Thus, we claim that the RRM model can provide a de fecto rather than a de jure basis for the core concept in the software development model. In this paper, the background of the project is introduced first. Then, the challenges are pointed out followed by our solutions. Finally, the experiences learned and the future works are presented.

Keywords: Agile methods, mobile apps, software process model, waterfall model.

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Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

Abstract:

In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.

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Authors: Fayssal Amrane, Azeddine Chaiba

Abstract:

In this paper, type-2 fuzzy logic control (T2FLC) and neuro-fuzzy control (NFC) for a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) based on direct power control (DPC) with a fixed switching frequency is proposed for wind generation application. First, a mathematical model of the doubly-fed induction generator implemented in d-q reference frame is achieved. Then, a DPC algorithm approach for controlling active and reactive power of DFIG via fixed switching frequency is incorporated using PID. The performance of T2FLC and NFC, which is based on the DPC algorithm, are investigated and compared to those obtained from the PID controller. Finally, simulation results demonstrate that the NFC is more robust, superior dynamic performance for wind power generation system applications.

Keywords: Doubly fed induction generetor, direct power control, space vector modulation, type-2 fuzzy logic control, neuro-fuzzy control, maximum power point tracking.

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Authors: Ö. Tolga Altınöz

Abstract:

The adaptive backstepping controller for inverted pendulum is designed by using the general motion control model. Backstepping is a novel nonlinear control technique based on the Lyapunov design approach, used when higher derivatives of parameter estimation appear. For easy parameter adaptation, the mathematical model of the inverted pendulum converted into the motion control model. This conversion is performed by taking functions of unknown parameters and dynamics of the system. By using motion control model equations, inverted pendulum is simulated without any information about not only parameters but also measurable dynamics. Also these results are compare with the adaptive backstepping controller which extended with integral action that given from [1].

Keywords: Adaptive backstepping, inverted pendulum, nonlinear adaptive control.

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Authors: Wang Xing-hua, Zhong Shun-an, Zhang Zhuo

Abstract:

A kind of behavior model for discrete sampling and hold amplifier with charge transmission is analyzed. The transfer function and behavior features are based on the main AC responses of operation amplifier. The result used in pipelined and sigma-delta ADC shows the exact of model of sampling and hold amplifier, and the non-ideal factors are taken into account.

Keywords: SHA, response, behavior, transfer function.

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Authors: N. Jinesh, K. Shankar

Abstract:

This article presents a method of using the one dimensional piezo-electric patch on beam model for structural identification. A hybrid element constituted of one dimensional beam element and a PZT sensor is used with reduced material properties. This model is convenient and simple for identification of beams. Accuracy of this element is first verified against a corresponding 3D finite element model (FEM). The structural identification is carried out as an inverse problem whereby parameters are identified by minimizing the deviation between the predicted and measured voltage response of the patch, when subjected to excitation. A non-classical optimization algorithm Particle Swarm Optimization is used to minimize this objective function. The signals are polluted with 5% Gaussian noise to simulate experimental noise. The proposed method is applied on beam structure and identified parameters are stiffness and damping. The model is also validated experimentally.

Keywords: Structural identification, PZT patches, inverse problem, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

Abstract:

To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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Authors: M. R. Dahmardeh Ghaleno, M. Nohtani, S. Khaledi

Abstract:

Flood simulation and prediction is one of the most active research areas in surface water management. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous, and physical model with daily or hourly time step that explains precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave equation which depends on the slope, velocity, and flow route characteristics. Golestan Dam Basin is located in Golestan province in Iran and it is passing over coordinates 55° 16´ 50" to 56° 4´ 25" E and 37° 19´ 39" to 37° 49´ 28"N. The area of the catchment is about 224 km², and elevations in the catchment range from 414 to 2856 m at the outlet, with average slope of 29.78%. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 59% and 80.18%, respectively.

Keywords: Watershed simulation, WetSpa, stream flow, flood prediction.

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Authors: Nopparat Pochai

Abstract:

Smoke discharging is a main reason of air pollution problem from industrial plants. The obstacle of a building has an affect with the air pollutant discharge. In this research, a mathematical model of the smoke dispersion from two sources and one source with a structural obstacle is considered. The governing equation of the model is an isothermal mass transfer model in a viscous fluid. The finite element method is used to approximate the solutions of the model. The triangular linear elements have been used for discretising the domain, and time integration has been carried out by semi-implicit finite difference method. The simulations of smoke dispersion in cases of one chimney and two chimneys are presented. The maximum calculated smoke concentration of both cases are compared. It is then used to make the decision for smoke discharging and air pollutant control problems on industrial area.

Keywords: Air pollution, Smoke dispersion, Finite element method, Stream function, Vorticity equation, Convection-diffusion equation, Semi-implicit method

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