Search results for: nonlinear stretching

Authors: Mihaela Popescu, Alexandru Bitoleanu, Mircea Dobriceanu

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The proper selection of the AC-side passive filter interconnecting the voltage source converter to the power supply is essential to obtain satisfactory performances of an active power filter system. The use of the LCL-type filter has the advantage of eliminating the high frequency switching harmonics in the current injected into the power supply. This paper is mainly focused on analyzing the influence of the interface filter parameters on the active filtering performances. Some design aspects are pointed out. Thus, the design of the AC interface filter starts from transfer functions by imposing the filter performance which refers to the significant current attenuation of the switching harmonics without affecting the harmonics to be compensated. A Matlab/Simulink model of the entire active filtering system including a concrete nonlinear load has been developed to examine the system performances. It is shown that a gamma LC filter could accomplish the attenuation requirement of the current provided by converter. Moreover, the existence of an optimal value of the grid-side inductance which minimizes the total harmonic distortion factor of the power supply current is pointed out. Nevertheless, a small converter-side inductance and a damping resistance in series with the filter capacitance are absolutely needed in order to keep the ripple and oscillations of the current at the converter side within acceptable limits. The effect of change in the LCL-filter parameters is evaluated. It is concluded that good active filtering performances can be achieved with small values of the capacitance and converter-side inductance.

Keywords: Active power filter, LCL filter, Matlab/Simulinkmodeling, Passive filters, Transfer function.

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Authors: A. Yanik, U. Aldemir

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This study investigates the benefits of implementing the semi-active devices in relation to passive viscous damping in the context of seismically isolated bridge structures. Since the intrinsically nonlinear nature of semi-active devices prevents the direct evaluation of Laplace transforms, frequency response functions are compiled from the computed time history response to sinusoidal and pulse-like seismic excitation. A simple semi-active control policy is used in regard to passive linear viscous damping and an optimal non-causal semi-active control strategy. The control strategy requires optimization. Euler-Lagrange equations are solved numerically during this procedure. The optimal closed-loop performance is evaluated for an idealized controllable dash-pot. A simplified single-degree-of-freedom model of an isolated bridge is used as numerical example. Two bridge cases are investigated. These cases are; bridge deck without the isolation bearing and bridge deck with the isolation bearing. To compare the performances of the passive and semi-active control cases, frequency dependent acceleration, velocity and displacement response transmissibility ratios T_a(w), T_v(w), and T_d(w) are defined. To fully investigate the behavior of the structure subjected to the sinusoidal and pulse type excitations, different damping levels are considered. Numerical results showed that, under the effect of external excitation, bridge deck with semi-active control showed better structural performance than the passive bridge deck case.

Keywords: Bridge structures, passive control, seismic, semi-active control, viscous damping.

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Authors: Susanta Kumar Gachhayat, S. K. Dash

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Multi objective non-convex economic dispatch problems of a thermal power plant are of grave concern for deciding the cost of generation and reduction of emission level for diminishing the global warming level for improving green-house effect. This paper deals with ramp rate constraints for achieving better inequality constraints so as to incorporate valve point loading for cost of generation in thermal power plant through ramp rate biogeography based optimization involving mutation and migration. Through 50 out of 100 trials, the cost function and emission objective function were found to have outperformed other classical methods such as lambda iteration method, quadratic programming method and many heuristic methods like particle swarm optimization method, weight improved particle swarm optimization method, constriction factor based particle swarm optimization method, moderate random particle swarm optimization method etc. Ramp rate biogeography based optimization applications prove quite advantageous in solving non convex multi objective economic dispatch problems subjected to nonlinear loads that pollute the source giving rise to third harmonic distortions and other such disturbances.

Keywords: Economic load dispatch, Biogeography based optimization, Ramp rate biogeography based optimization, Valve Point loading, Moderate random particle swarm optimization method, Weight improved particle swarm optimization method

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Authors: A. S. Gorobtsov, A. S. Polyanina, A. E. Andreev

Abstract:

The movement of points feet of the anthropomorphous robot in space occurs along some stable trajectory of a known form. A large number of modifications to the methods of control of biped robots indicate the fundamental complexity of the problem of stability of the program trajectory and, consequently, the stability of the control for the deviation for this trajectory. Existing gait generators use piecewise interpolation of program trajectories. This leads to jumps in the acceleration at the boundaries of sites. Another interpolation can be realized using differential equations with fractional derivatives. In work, the approach to synthesis of generators of program trajectories is considered. The resulting system of nonlinear differential equations describes a smooth trajectory of movement having rectilinear sites. The method is based on the theory of an asymptotic stability of invariant sets. The stability of such systems in the area of localization of oscillatory processes is investigated. The boundary of the area is a bounded closed surface. In the corresponding subspaces of the oscillatory circuits, the resulting stable limit cycles are curves having rectilinear sites. The solution of the problem is carried out by means of synthesis of a set of the continuous smooth controls with feedback. The necessary geometry of closed trajectories of movement is obtained due to the introduction of high-order nonlinearities in the control of stabilization systems. The offered method was used for the generation of trajectories of movement of point’s feet of the anthropomorphous robot. The synthesis of the robot's program movement was carried out by means of the inverse method.

Keywords: Control, limits cycle, robot, stability.

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Authors: Seyed Saeid Tabaee, Omid Bahar

Abstract:

Nowadays, energy dissipation devices are commonly used in structures. High rate of energy absorption during earthquakes is the benefit of using such devices, which results in damage reduction of structural elements, specifically columns. The hysteretic damping capacity of energy dissipation devices is the key point that it may adversely make analysis and design process complicated. This effect may be generally represented by Equivalent Viscous Damping (EVD). The equivalent viscous damping might be obtained from the expected hysteretic behavior regarding to the design or maximum considered displacement of a structure. In this paper, the hysteretic damping coefficient of a steel Moment Resisting Frame (MRF), which its performance is enhanced by a Buckling Restrained Brace (BRB) system has been evaluated. Having foresight of damping fraction between BRB and MRF is inevitable for seismic design procedures like Direct Displacement-Based Design (DDBD) method. This paper presents an approach to calculate the damping fraction for such systems by carrying out the dynamic nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA) under harmonic loading, which is tuned to the natural system frequency. Two MRF structures, one equipped with BRB and the other without BRB are simultaneously studied. Extensive analysis shows that proportion of each system damping fraction may be calculated by its shear story portion. In this way, contribution of each BRB in the floors and their general contribution in the structural performance may be clearly recognized, in advance.

Keywords: Buckling restrained brace, Direct displacement based design, Dual systems, Hysteretic damping, Moment resisting frames.

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Authors: Ferhat Erdal, Osman Tunca, Serkan Tas, Serdar Carbas

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Web-expanded steel beams provide an easy and economical solution for the systems having longer structural members. The main goal of manufacturing these beams is to increase the moment of inertia and section modulus, which results in greater strength and rigidity. Until recently, there were two common types of open web-expanded beams: with hexagonal openings, also called castellated beams, and beams with circular openings referred to as cellular beams, until the generation of sinusoidal web-expanded beams. In the present research, the optimum design of a new generation beams, namely sinusoidal web-expanded beams, will be carried out and the design results will be compared with castellated and cellular beam solutions. Thanks to a reduced fabrication process and substantial material savings, the web-expanded beam with sinusoidal holes (Angelina™ Beam) meets the economic requirements of steel design problems while ensuring optimum safety. The objective of this research is to carry out non-linear finite element analysis (FEA) of the web-expanded beam with sinusoidal holes. The FE method has been used to predict their entire response to increasing values of external loading until they lose their load carrying capacity. FE model of each specimen that is utilized in the experimental studies is carried out. These models are used to simulate the experimental work to verify of test results and to investigate the non-linear behavior of failure modes such as web-post buckling, shear buckling and vierendeel bending of beams.

Keywords: Steel structures, web-expanded beams, Angelina™ beam, optimum design, failure modes, finite element analysis.

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Authors: L. Moussaoui, L. Rahmani

Abstract:

This paper deals with the direct torque control (DTC) of the induction motor. This type of control allows decoupling control between the flux and the torque without the need for a transformation of coordinates. However, as with other hysteresis-based systems, the classical DTC scheme represents a high ripple, in both the electromagnetic torque and the stator flux and a distortion in the stator current. As well, it suffers from variable switching frequency. To solve these problems various modifications, in conventional DTC scheme, have been made during the last decade. Indeed the DTC based on space vector modulation (SVM) has proved to generate very low ripples in torque and flux with constant switching frequency. It also shows almost the same dynamic performances as the classical DTC system. On the other hand, fuzzy logic is considered as an interesting alternative approach for its advantages: Analysis close to the exigencies of user, ability of nonlinear systems control, best dynamic performances and inherent quality of robustness.

Therefore, two fuzzy direct torque control approaches, for the induction motor fed by SVM-voltage source inverter, are proposed in this paper. By using these two approaches of DTC, the advantages of fuzzy logic control, space vector modulation, and direct torque control method are combined. The performances of these DTC schemes are evaluated through digital simulation using Matlab/Simulink platform and fuzzy logic tools. Simulation results illustrate the effectiveness and the superiority of the proposed Fuzzy DTC-SVM schemes in comparison to the classical DTC.

Keywords: Direct torque control, Fuzzy logic control, Induction motor, Switching frequency, Space vector modulation, Torque and flux ripples.

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Authors: Daohong Yang, Xiang Zhang, Wanting Zhou, Lei Li

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Visual Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (VSLAM) is a technology that gathers information about the surrounding environment to ascertain its own position and create a map. It is widely used in computer vision, robotics, and various other fields. Many visual SLAM systems, such as OBSLAM3, utilize a constant velocity motion model. The utilization of this model facilitates the determination of the initial pose of the current frame, thereby enhancing the efficiency and precision of feature matching. However, it is often difficult to satisfy the constant velocity motion model in actual situations. This can result in a significant deviation between the obtained initial pose and the true value, leading to errors in nonlinear optimization results. Therefore, this paper proposes a motion model based on acceleration that can be applied to most SLAM systems. To provide a more accurate description of the camera pose acceleration, we separate the pose transformation matrix into its rotation matrix and translation vector components. The rotation matrix is now represented by a rotation vector. We assume that, over a short period, the changes in rotating angular velocity and translation vector remain constant. Based on this assumption, the initial pose of the current frame is estimated. In addition, the error of the constant velocity model is analyzed theoretically. Finally, we apply our proposed approach to the ORBSLAM3 system and evaluate two sets of sequences from the TUM datasets. The results show that our proposed method has a more accurate initial pose estimation, resulting in an improvement of 6.61% and 6.46% in the accuracy of the ORBSLAM3 system on the two test sequences, respectively.

Keywords: Error estimation, constant acceleration motion model, pose estimation, visual SLAM.

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Authors: Rohit Kumar Shrivastava, Amalia Thomas, Nathalie Vriend, Stefan Luding

Abstract:

A mechanical wave or vibration propagating through granular media exhibits a specific signature in time. A coherent pulse or wavefront arrives first with multiply scattered waves (coda) arriving later. The coherent pulse is micro-structure independent i.e. it depends only on the bulk properties of the disordered granular sample, the sound wave velocity of the granular sample and hence bulk and shear moduli. The coherent wavefront attenuates (decreases in amplitude) and broadens with distance from its source. The pulse attenuation and broadening effects are affected by disorder (polydispersity; contrast in size of the granules) and have often been attributed to dispersion and scattering. To study the effect of disorder and initial amplitude (non-linearity) of the pulse imparted to the system on the coherent wavefront, numerical simulations have been carried out on one-dimensional sets of particles (granular chains). The interaction force between the particles is given by a Hertzian contact model. The sizes of particles have been selected randomly from a Gaussian distribution, where the standard deviation of this distribution is the relevant parameter that quantifies the effect of disorder on the coherent wavefront. Since, the coherent wavefront is system configuration independent, ensemble averaging has been used for improving the signal quality of the coherent pulse and removing the multiply scattered waves. The results concerning the width of the coherent wavefront have been formulated in terms of scaling laws. An experimental set-up of photoelastic particles constituting a granular chain is proposed to validate the numerical results.

Keywords: Discrete elements, Hertzian Contact, polydispersity, weakly nonlinear, wave propagation.

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Authors: Zhipeng Feng, Huanhuan Qi, Pingchuan Shen, Fenggang Zang, Yixiong Zhang

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Numerical simulations of vortex-induced vibration of a three-dimensional flexible tube under uniform turbulent flow are calculated when Reynolds number is 1.35×10⁴. In order to achieve the vortex-induced vibration, the three-dimensional unsteady, viscous, incompressible Navier-Stokes equation and LES turbulence model are solved with the finite volume approach, the tube is discretized according to the finite element theory, and its dynamic equilibrium equations are solved by the Newmark method. The fluid-tube interaction is realized by utilizing the diffusion-based smooth dynamic mesh method. Considering the vortex-induced vibration system, the variety trends of lift coefficient, drag coefficient, displacement, vertex shedding frequency, phase difference angle of tube are analyzed under different frequency ratios. The nonlinear phenomena of locked-in, phase-switch are captured successfully. Meanwhile, the limit cycle and bifurcation of lift coefficient and displacement are analyzed by using trajectory, phase portrait, and Poincaré sections. The results reveal that: when drag coefficient reaches its minimum value, the transverse amplitude reaches its maximum, and the “lock-in” begins simultaneously. In the range of lock-in, amplitude decreases gradually with increasing of frequency ratio. When lift coefficient reaches its minimum value, the phase difference undergoes a suddenly change from the “out-of-phase” to the “in-phase” mode.

Keywords: Vortex induced vibration, limit cycle, CFD, FEM.

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Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, Prediction modeling, rail track degradation.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Vafaei, Amirali Moradi, Sophia C. Alih

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The method selected for the design of structures not only can affect their seismic vulnerability but also can affect their construction cost. For the design of steel structures, two distinct methods have been introduced by existing codes, namely allowable stress design (ASD) and load resistant factor design (LRFD). This study investigates the effect of using the aforementioned design methods on the seismic vulnerability and construction cost of steel structures. Specifically, a 20-story building equipped with special moment resisting frame and an eccentrically braced system was selected for this study. The building was designed for three different intensities of peak ground acceleration including 0.2 g, 0.25 g, and 0.3 g using the ASD and LRFD methods. The required sizes of beams, columns, and braces were obtained using response spectrum analysis. Then, the designed frames were subjected to nine natural earthquake records which were scaled to the designed response spectrum. For each frame, the base shear, story shears, and inter-story drifts were calculated and then were compared. Results indicated that the LRFD method led to a more economical design for the frames. In addition, the LRFD method resulted in lower base shears and larger inter-story drifts when compared with the ASD method. It was concluded that the application of the LRFD method not only reduced the weights of structural elements but also provided a higher safety margin against seismic actions when compared with the ASD method.

Keywords: Allowable stress design, load resistant factor design, nonlinear time history analysis, seismic vulnerability, steel structures.

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Authors: Promise A. Azor, Avievie Igodo, Esabai M. Ase

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The paper merged the return of premium clause and voluntary contributions to investigate retirees’ investment plan in a defined contributory (DC) pension scheme with a portfolio comprising of a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process is described by geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The paper considers additional voluntary contributions paid by members, charge on balance by pension fund administrators and the mortality risk of members of the scheme during the accumulation period by introducing return of premium clause. To achieve this, the Weilbull mortality force function is used to establish the mortality rate of members during accumulation phase. Furthermore, an optimization problem from the Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation is obtained using dynamic programming approach. Also, the Legendre transformation method is used to transform the HJB equation which is a nonlinear partial differential equation to a linear partial differential equation and solves the resultant equation for the value function and the optimal distribution plan under logarithm utility function. Finally, numerical simulations of the impact of some important parameters on the optimal distribution plan were obtained and it was observed that the optimal distribution plan is inversely proportional to the initial fund size, predetermined interest rate, additional voluntary contributions, charge on balance and instantaneous volatility.

Keywords: Legendre transform, logarithm utility, optimal distribution plan, return clause of premium, charge on balance, Weibull mortality function.

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine learning methods, such as Random Forest (RF), are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. RF showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the RF method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods: multiple linear regression and lasso regression method.

Keywords: Cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest.

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Authors: Zachariah Sinkala

Abstract:

A systems approach model for prostate cancer in prostate duct, as a sub-system of the organism is developed. It is accomplished in two steps. First this research work starts with a nonlinear system of coupled Fokker-Plank equations which models continuous process of the system like motion of cells. Then extended to PDEs that include discontinuous processes like cell mutations, proliferation and deaths. The discontinuous processes is modeled by using intensity poisson processes. The model incorporates the features of the prostate duct. The system of PDEs spatial coordinate is along the proximal distal axis. Its parameters depend on features of the prostate duct. The movement of cells is biased towards distal region and mutations of prostate cancer cells is localized in the proximal region. Numerical solutions of the full system of equations are provided, and are exhibit traveling wave fronts phenomena. This motivates the use of the standard transformation to derive a canonically related system of ODEs for traveling wave solutions. The results obtained show persistence of prostate cancer by showing that the non-negative cone for the traveling wave system is time invariant. The traveling waves have a unique global attractor is proved also. Biologically, the global attractor verifies that evolution of prostate cancer stem cells exhibit the avascular tumor growth. These numerical solutions show that altering prostate stem cell movement or mutation of prostate cancer cells lead to avascular tumor. Conclusion with comments on clinical implications of the model is discussed.

Keywords: Fokker-Plank equations, global attractor, stem cell.

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Authors: Jin Woo Hwang, Byung Kwan Oh, Yousok Kim, Hyo Seon Park

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As greenhouse effect has been recognized as serious environmental problem of the world, interests in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission which comprises major part of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been increased recently. Since construction industry takes a relatively large portion of total CO₂ emissions of the world, extensive studies about reducing CO₂ emissions in construction and operation of building have been carried out after the 2000s. Also, performance based design (PBD) methodology based on nonlinear analysis has been robustly developed after Northridge Earthquake in 1994 to assure and assess seismic performance of building more exactly because structural engineers recognized that prescriptive code based design approach cannot address inelastic earthquake responses directly and assure performance of building exactly. Although CO₂ emissions and PBD approach are recent rising issues on construction industry and structural engineering, there were few or no researches considering these two issues simultaneously. Thus, the objective of this study is to minimize the CO₂ emissions and cost of building designed by PBD approach in structural design stage considering structural materials. 4 story and 4 span reinforced concrete building optimally designed to minimize CO₂ emissions and cost of building and to satisfy specific seismic performance (collapse prevention in maximum considered earthquake) of building satisfying prescriptive code regulations using non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Optimized design result showed that minimized CO₂ emissions and cost of building were acquired satisfying specific seismic performance. Therefore, the methodology proposed in this paper can be used to reduce both CO₂ emissions and cost of building designed by PBD approach.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, performance based design, optimization, sustainable design.

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Authors: Salah R. Al Zaidee, Ali S. Mahdi

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Except for simple problems of statically determinate structures, optimum design problems in structural engineering have implicit objective functions where structural analysis and design are essential within each searching loop. With these implicit functions, the structural engineer is usually enforced to write his/her own computer code for analysis, design, and searching for optimum design among many feasible candidates and cannot take advantage of available software for structural analysis, design, and searching for the optimum solution. The meta-model is a regression model used to transform an implicit objective function into objective one and leads in turn to decouple the structural analysis and design processes from the optimum searching process. With the meta-model, well-known software for structural analysis and design can be used in sequence with optimum searching software. In this paper, the meta-model has been used to develop an explicit objective function for plane steel frames subjected to dead, live, and seismic forces. Frame topology is assumed as predefined based on architectural and functional requirements. Columns and beams sections and different connections details are the main design variables in this study. Columns and beams are grouped to reduce the number of design variables and to make the problem similar to that adopted in engineering practice. Data for the implicit objective function have been generated based on analysis and assessment for many design proposals with CSI SAP software. These data have been used later in SPSS software to develop a pure quadratic nonlinear regression model for the explicit objective function. Good correlations with a coefficient, R², in the range from 0.88 to 0.99 have been noted between the original implicit functions and the corresponding explicit functions generated with meta-model.

Keywords: Meta-modal, objective function, steel frames, seismic analysis, design.

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Authors: Suman Senapati, Goutam Saha

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Real world Speaker Identification (SI) application differs from ideal or laboratory conditions causing perturbations that leads to a mismatch between the training and testing environment and degrade the performance drastically. Many strategies have been adopted to cope with acoustical degradation; wavelet based Bayesian marginal model is one of them. But Bayesian marginal models cannot model the inter-scale statistical dependencies of different wavelet scales. Simple nonlinear estimators for wavelet based denoising assume that the wavelet coefficients in different scales are independent in nature. However wavelet coefficients have significant inter-scale dependency. This paper enhances this inter-scale dependency property by a Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function (CS-PDF) related to the family of Spherically Invariant Random Processes (SIRPs) in Log Gabor Wavelet (LGW) domain and corresponding joint shrinkage estimator is derived by Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimator. A framework is proposed based on these to denoise speech signal for automatic speaker identification problems. The robustness of the proposed framework is tested for Text Independent Speaker Identification application on 100 speakers of POLYCOST and 100 speakers of YOHO speech database in three different noise environments. Experimental results show that the proposed estimator yields a higher improvement in identification accuracy compared to other estimators on popular Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) based speaker model and Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) features.

Keywords: Speaker Identification, Log Gabor Wavelet, Bayesian Bivariate Estimator, Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function, SIRP.

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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Authors: Zhongmin Wang, Wudong Fan, Hengshan Zhang, Yimin Zhou

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In data-driven prognostic methods, the prediction accuracy of the estimation for remaining useful life of bearings mainly depends on the performance of health indicators, which are usually fused some statistical features extracted from vibrating signals. However, the existing health indicators have the following two drawbacks: (1) The differnet ranges of the statistical features have the different contributions to construct the health indicators, the expert knowledge is required to extract the features. (2) When convolutional neural networks are utilized to tackle time-frequency features of signals, the time-series of signals are not considered. To overcome these drawbacks, in this study, the method combining convolutional neural network with gated recurrent unit is proposed to extract the time-frequency image features. The extracted features are utilized to construct health indicator and predict remaining useful life of bearings. First, original signals are converted into time-frequency images by using continuous wavelet transform so as to form the original feature sets. Second, with convolutional and pooling layers of convolutional neural networks, the most sensitive features of time-frequency images are selected from the original feature sets. Finally, these selected features are fed into the gated recurrent unit to construct the health indicator. The results state that the proposed method shows the enhance performance than the related studies which have used the same bearing dataset provided by PRONOSTIA.

Keywords: Continuous wavelet transform, convolution neural network, gated recurrent unit, health indicators, remaining useful life.

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Authors: Hsiao-Tien Pao, Yi-Ying Li, Hsin-Chia Fu

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This paper addressed the impacts of energy consumption, economic growth, financial development, and population size on environmental degradation using grey relational analysis (GRA) for China, where foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows is the proxy variable for financial development. The more recent historical data during the period 2004–2011 are used, because the use of very old data for data analysis may not be suitable for rapidly developing countries. The results of the GRA indicate that the linkage effects of energy consumption–emissions and GDP–emissions are ranked first and second, respectively. These reveal that energy consumption and economic growth are strongly correlated with emissions. Higher economic growth requires more energy consumption and increasing environmental pollution. Likewise, more efficient energy use needs a higher level of economic development. Therefore, policies to improve energy efficiency and create a low-carbon economy can reduce emissions without hurting economic growth. The finding of FDI–emissions linkage is ranked third. This indicates that China do not apply weak environmental regulations to attract inward FDI. Furthermore, China’s government in attracting inward FDI should strengthen environmental policy. The finding of population–emissions linkage effect is ranked fourth, implying that population size does not directly affect CO₂ emissions, even though China has the world’s largest population, and Chinese people are very economical use of energy-related products. Overall, the energy conservation, improving efficiency, managing demand, and financial development, which aim at curtailing waste of energy, reducing both energy consumption and emissions, and without loss of the country’s competitiveness, can be adopted for developing economies. The GRA is one of the best way to use a lower data to build a dynamic analysis model.

Keywords: Grey relational analysis, foreign direct investment, CO2 emissions, China.

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Authors: Smaali Assia, Outemzabet Ratiba, Media El Mahdi, Kadi Mohamed

Abstract:

Films of pure tin oxide SnO2 and in presence of antimony atoms (SnO2-Sb) deposited onto glass substrates have shown a sufficiently high energy gap to be transparent in the visible region, a high electrical mobility and a carrier concentration which displays a good electrical conductivity [1]. In this work, the effects of polycrystalline silicon substrate on the optical properties of pure and Sb doped tin oxide is investigated. We used the APCVD (atmospheric pressure chemical vapour deposition) technique, which is a low-cost and simple technique, under nitrogen ambient, for growing this material. A series of SnO2 and SnO2-Sb have been deposited onto polycrystalline silicon substrates with different contents of antimony atoms at the same conditions of deposition (substrate temperature, flow oxygen, duration and nitrogen atmosphere of the reactor). The effect of the substrate in terms of morphology and nonlinear optical properties, mainly the reflectance, was studied. The reflectance intensity of the device, compared to the reflectance of tin oxide films deposited directly on glass substrate, is clearly reduced on the overall wavelength range. It is obvious that the roughness of the poly-c silicon plays an important role by improving the reflectance and hence the optical parameters. A clear shift in the minimum of the reflectance upon doping level is observed. This minimum corresponds to strong free carrier absorption, resulting in different plasma frequency. This effect is followed by an increase in the reflectance depending of the antimony doping. Applying the extended Drude theory to the combining optical and electrical obtained results these effects are discussed.

Keywords: Doping, oxide, reflectance.

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Authors: Mohamed Elghorab, Vendra C. Madhav Rao, Jennifer X. Wen

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Turbulence modelling is still evolving, and efforts are on to improve and develop numerical methods to simulate the real turbulence structures by using the empirical and experimental information. The monotonically integrated large eddy simulation (MILES) is an attractive approach for modelling turbulence in high Re flows, which is based on the solving of the unfiltered flow equations with no explicit sub-grid scale (SGS) model. In the current work, this approach has been used, and the action of the SGS model has been included implicitly by intrinsic nonlinear high-frequency filters built into the convection discretization schemes. The MILES solver is developed using the opensource CFD OpenFOAM libraries. The role of flux limiters schemes namely, Gamma, superBee, van-Albada and van-Leer, is studied in predicting turbulent statistical quantities for a fully developed channel flow with a friction Reynolds number, Re_T = 180, and compared the numerical predictions with the well-established Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) results for studying the wall generated turbulence. It is inferred from the numerical predictions that Gamma, van-Leer and van-Albada limiters produced more diffusion and overpredicted the velocity profiles, while superBee scheme reproduced velocity profiles and turbulence statistical quantities in good agreement with the reference DNS data in the streamwise direction although it deviated slightly in the spanwise and normal to the wall directions. The simulation results are further discussed in terms of the turbulence intensities and Reynolds stresses averaged in time and space to draw conclusion on the flux limiter schemes performance in OpenFOAM context.

Keywords: Flux limiters, MILES, OpenFOAM, turbulence structures, TVD schemes.

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Authors: Ali Ghaffari, Mansour Nikkhah Bahrami, Hesam Parsa

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In this paper a comprehensive model of a fossil fueled power plant (FFPP) is developed in order to evaluate the performance of a newly designed turbine follower controller. Considering the drawbacks of previous works, an overall model is developed to minimize the error between each subsystem model output and the experimental data obtained at the actual power plant. The developed model is organized in two main subsystems namely; Boiler and Turbine. Considering each FFPP subsystem characteristics, different modeling approaches are developed. For economizer, evaporator, superheater and reheater, first order models are determined based on principles of mass and energy conservation. Simulations verify the accuracy of the developed models. Due to the nonlinear characteristics of attemperator, a new model, based on a genetic-fuzzy systems utilizing Pittsburgh approach is developed showing a promising performance vis-à-vis those derived with other methods like ANFIS. The optimization constraints are handled utilizing penalty functions. The effect of increasing the number of rules and membership functions on the performance of the proposed model is also studied and evaluated. The turbine model is developed based on the equation of adiabatic expansion. Parameters of all evaluated models are tuned by means of evolutionary algorithms. Based on the developed model a fuzzy PI controller is developed. It is then successfully implemented in the turbine follower control strategy of the plant. In this control strategy instead of keeping control parameters constant, they are adjusted on-line with regard to the error and the error rate. It is shown that the response of the system improves significantly. It is also shown that fuel consumption decreases considerably.

Keywords: Attemperator, Evolutionary algorithms, Fossil fuelled power plant (FFPP), Fuzzy set theory, Gain scheduling

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Authors: Ke Zhao, Ballarat Colin Richardson, Jerry Courvisanos, John Crawford

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Climate change has profound consequences for the agriculture of south-eastern Australia and its climate-induced water shortage in the Murray-Darling Basin. Post Keynesian Economics (PKE) macro-dynamics, along with Kaleckian investment and growth theory, are used to develop an ecological-economic system dynamics model of this complex nonlinear river basin system. The Murray- Darling Basin Simulation Model (MDB-SM) uses the principles of PKE to incorporate the fundamental uncertainty of economic behaviors of farmers regarding the investments they make and the climate change they face, particularly as regards water ecosystem services. MDB-SM provides a framework for macroeconomic policies, especially for long-term fiscal policy and for policy directed at the sustainability of agricultural water, as measured by socio-economic well-being considerations, which include sustainable consumption and investment in the river basin. The model can also reproduce other ecological and economic aspects and, for certain parameters and initial values, exhibit endogenous business cycles and ecological sustainability with realistic characteristics. Most importantly, MDBSM provides a platform for the analysis of alternative economic policy scenarios. These results reveal the importance of understanding water ecosystem adaptation under climate change by integrating a PKE macroeconomic analytical framework with the system dynamics modelling approach. Once parameterised and supplied with historical initial values, MDB-SM should prove to be a practical tool to provide alternative long-term policy simulations of agricultural water and socio-economic well-being.

Keywords: Agricultural water, Macroeconomic dynamics, Modeling, Investment dynamics, Sustainability, Unemployment, Economics, Keynesian, Kaleckian.

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Authors: J. Novak, A. Kohoutkova, V. Kristek, J. Vodicka, M. Sramek

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While the use of cast-in-place concrete for an airfield and highway pavement overlay is very common, the application of precast concrete elements is very limited today. The main reasons consist of high production costs and complex structural behavior. Despite that, several precast concrete systems have been developed and tested with the aim to provide a system with rapid construction. The contribution deals with the reinforcement design of a hexagonal element developed for a proposed airfield pavement system. The sub-base course of the system is composed of compacted recycled concrete aggregates and fiber reinforced concrete with recycled aggregates place on top of it. The selected element belongs to a group of precast concrete elements which are being considered for the construction of a surface course. Both high costs of full-scale experiments and the need to investigate various elements force to simulate their behavior in a numerical analysis software by using finite element method instead of performing expensive experiments. The simulation of the selected element was conducted on a nonlinear model in order to obtain such results which could fully compensate results from experiments. The main objective was to design reinforcement of the precast concrete element subject to quasi-static loading from airplanes with respect to geometrical imperfections, manufacturing imperfections, tensile stress in reinforcement, compressive stress in concrete and crack width. The obtained findings demonstrate that the position and the presence of imperfection in a pavement highly affect the stress distribution in the precast concrete element. The precast concrete element should be heavily reinforced to fulfill all the demands. Using under-reinforced concrete elements would lead to the formation of wide cracks and cracks permanently open.

Keywords: Imperfection, numerical simulation, pavement, precast concrete element, reinforcement design, stress analysis.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Salek Faramarzi, Touraj Taghikhany

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In this paper, seismic fragility assessment of a recently developed hybrid structural system, known as the strongback system (SBS) is investigated. In this system, to mitigate the occurrence of the soft-story mechanism and improve the distribution of story drifts over the height of the structure, an elastic vertical truss is formed. The strengthened members of the braced span are designed to remain substantially elastic during levels of excitation where soft-story mechanisms are likely to occur and impose a nearly uniform story drift distribution. Due to the distinctive characteristics of near-field ground motions, it seems to be necessary to study the effect of these records on seismic performance of the SBS. To this end, a set of 56 near-field ground motion records suggested by FEMA P695 methodology is used. For fragility assessment, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out in OpenSEES based on the recommended procedure in HAZUS technical manual. Four damage states including slight, moderate, extensive, and complete damage (collapse) are considered. To evaluate each damage state, inter-story drift ratio and floor acceleration are implemented as engineering demand parameters. Further, to extend the evaluation of the collapse state of the system, a different collapse criterion suggested in FEMA P695 is applied. It is concluded that SBS can significantly increase the collapse capacity and consequently decrease the collapse risk of the structure during its life time. Comparing the observing mean annual frequency (MAF) of exceedance of each damage state against the allowable values presented in performance-based design methods, it is found that using the elastic vertical truss, improves the structural response effectively.

Keywords: Strongback System, Near-fault, Seismic fragility, Uncertainty, IDA, Probabilistic performance assessment.

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Authors: K. S. Sivakumaran, T. Thanga, B. Halabieh

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The end panels of a large rectangular industrial duct, which experience significant internal pressures, also experience considerable transverse shear due to transfer of gravity loads to the supports. The current design practice of such thin plate panels for shear load is based on methods used for the design of plate girder webs. The structural arrangements, the loadings and the resulting behavior associated with the industrial duct end panels are, however, significantly different from those of the web of a plate girder. The large aspect ratio of the end panels gives rise to multiple bands of tension fields, whereas the plate girder web design is based on one tension field. In addition to shear, the industrial end panels are subjected to internal pressure which in turn produces significant membrane action. This paper reports a study which was undertaken to review the current industrial analysis and design methods and to propose a comprehensive method of designing industrial duct end panels for shear resistance. In this investigation, a nonlinear finite element model was developed to simulate the behavior of industrial duct end panel, along with the associated edge stiffeners, subjected to transverse shear and internal pressures. The model considered the geometric imperfections and constitutive relations for steels. Six scale independent dimensionless parameters that govern the behavior of such end panel were identified and were then used in a parametric study. It was concluded that the plate slenderness dominates the shear strength of stockier end panels, and whereas, both the plate slenderness and the aspect ratio influence the shear strength of slender end panels. Based on these studies, this paper proposes design aids for estimating the shear strength of rectangular duct end panels.

Keywords: Thin plate, transverse shear, tension field, finite element analysis, parametric study, design.

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Authors: Yanling Li, Linying Ji, Zita Oravecz, Timothy R. Brick, Michael D. Hunter, Sy-Miin Chow

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Assessing several individuals intensively over time yields intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Even though ILD provide rich information, they also bring other data analytic challenges. One of these is the increased occurrence of missingness with increased study length, possibly under non-ignorable missingness scenarios. Multiple imputation (MI) handles missing data by creating several imputed data sets, and pooling the estimation results across imputed data sets to yield final estimates for inferential purposes. In this article, we introduce dynr.mi(), a function in the R package, Dynamic Modeling in R (dynr). The package dynr provides a suite of fast and accessible functions for estimating and visualizing the results from fitting linear and nonlinear dynamic systems models in discrete as well as continuous time. By integrating the estimation functions in dynr and the MI procedures available from the R package, Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), the dynr.mi() routine is designed to handle possibly non-ignorable missingness in the dependent variables and/or covariates in a user-specified dynamic systems model via MI, with convergence diagnostic check. We utilized dynr.mi() to examine, in the context of a vector autoregressive model, the relationships among individuals’ ambulatory physiological measures, and self-report affect valence and arousal. The results from MI were compared to those from listwise deletion of entries with missingness in the covariates. When we determined the number of iterations based on the convergence diagnostics available from dynr.mi(), differences in the statistical significance of the covariate parameters were observed between the listwise deletion and MI approaches. These results underscore the importance of considering diagnostic information in the implementation of MI procedures.

Keywords: Dynamic modeling, missing data, multiple imputation, physiological measures.

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Authors: Amr R. El-Gamal, Ashraf Essa, Ayman Ismail

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The tension leg platform (TLP) is one of the compliant structures which are generally used for deep water oil exploration. With respect to the horizontal degrees of freedom, it behaves like a floating structure moored by vertical tethers which are pretension due to the excess buoyancy of the platform, whereas with respect to the vertical degrees of freedom, it is stiff and resembles a fixed structure and is not allowed to float freely. In the current study, a numerical study for square TLP using modified Morison equation was carried out in the time domain with water particle kinematics using Airy’s linear wave theory to investigate the effect of changing the tether tension force on the stiffness matrix of TLP's, the dynamic behavior of TLP's; and on the fatigue stresses in the cables. The effect was investigated for different parameters of the hydrodynamic forces such as wave periods, and wave heights. The numerical study takes into consideration the effect of coupling between various degrees of freedom. The stiffness of the TLP was derived from a combination of hydrostatic restoring forces and restoring forces due to cables. Nonlinear equation was solved using Newmark’s beta integration method. Only uni-directional waves in the surge direction was considered in the analysis. It was found that for short wave periods (i.e. 10 sec.), the surge response consisted of small amplitude oscillations about a displaced position that is significantly dependent on tether tension force, wave height; whereas for longer wave periods, the surge response showed high amplitude oscillations that is significantly dependent on wave height, and that special attention should be given to tethers fatigue because of their high tensile static and dynamic stress.

Keywords: Tethers tension, tension leg platforms, hydrodynamic wave forces, wave characteristic.

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