Search results for: thermal model.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8398

Search results for: thermal model.

7408 Summing ANFIS PID Control of Passenger Seat Vibrations in Active Quarter Car Model

Authors: Devdutt

Abstract:

In this paper, passenger seat vibration control of an active quarter car model under random road excitations is considered. The designed ANFIS and Summing ANFIS PID controllers are assembled in primary suspension system of quarter car model. Simulation work is performed in time and frequency domain to obtain passenger seat acceleration and displacement responses. Simulation results show that Summing ANFIS PID based controller is highly suitable to suppress the road induced vibrations in quarter car model to achieve desired passenger ride comfort and safety compared to ANFIS and passive system.

Keywords: Quarter car model, Active suspension system, Summing ANFIS PID controller, Passenger ride comfort.

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7407 Three Steps of One-way Nested Grid for Energy Balance Equations by Wave Model

Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. Humphries, Prungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai

Abstract:

The three steps of the standard one-way nested grid for a regional scale of the third generation WAve Model Cycle 4 (WAMC4) is scrutinized. The model application is enabled to solve the energy balance equation on a coarse resolution grid in order to produce boundary conditions for a smaller area by the nested grid technique. In the present study, the model takes a full advantage of the fine resolution of wind fields in space and time produced by the available U.S. Navy Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model with 1 degree resolution. The nested grid application of the model is developed in order to gradually increase the resolution from the open ocean towards the South China Sea (SCS) and the Gulf of Thailand (GoT) respectively. The model results were compared with buoy observations at Ko Chang, Rayong and Huahin locations which were obtained from the Seawatch project. In addition, the results were also compared with Satun based weather station which was provided from Department of Meteorology, Thailand. The data collected from this station presented the significant wave height (Hs) reached 12.85 m. The results indicated that the tendency of the Hs from the model in the spherical coordinate propagation with deep water condition in the fine grid domain agreed well with the Hs from the observations.

Keywords: energy balance equation, Gulf of Thailand, nested gridapplication, South China Sea, wave model.

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7406 Investigation of Buoyant Parameters of k-ε Turbulence Model in Gravity Stratified Flows

Authors: A. Majid Bahari, Kourosh Hejazi

Abstract:

Different variants for buoyancy-affected terms in k-ε turbulence model have been utilized to predict the flow parameters more accurately, and investigate applicability of alternative k-ε turbulence buoyant closures in numerical simulation of a horizontal gravity current. The additional non-isotropic turbulent stress due to buoyancy has been considered in production term, based on Algebraic Stress Model (ASM). In order to account for turbulent scalar fluxes, general gradient diffusion hypothesis has been used along with Boussinesq gradient diffusion hypothesis with a variable turbulent Schmidt number and additional empirical constant c3ε.To simulate buoyant flow domain a 2D vertical numerical model (WISE, Width Integrated Stratified Environments), based on Reynolds- Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, has been deployed and the model has been further developed for different k-ε turbulence closures. Results are compared against measured laboratory values of a saline gravity current to explore the efficient turbulence model.

Keywords: Buoyant flows, Buoyant k-ε turbulence model, saline gravity current.

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7405 Causal Modeling of the Glucose-Insulin System in Type-I Diabetic Patients

Authors: J. Fernandez, N. Aguilar, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

Abstract:

In this paper, a simulation model of the glucose-insulin system for a patient undergoing diabetes Type 1 is developed by using a causal modeling approach under system dynamics. The OpenModelica simulation environment has been employed to build the so called causal model, while the glucose-insulin model parameters were adjusted to fit recorded mean data of a diabetic patient database. Model results under different conditions of a three-meal glucose and exogenous insulin ingestion patterns have been obtained. This simulation model can be useful to evaluate glucose-insulin performance in several circumstances, including insulin infusion algorithms in open-loop and decision support systems in closed-loop.

Keywords: Causal modeling, diabetes, glucose-insulin system, diabetes, causal modeling, OpenModelica software.

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7404 A New Fuzzy Mathematical Model in Recycling Collection Networks: A Possibilistic Approach

Authors: B. Vahdani, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, A. Baboli, S. M. Mousavi

Abstract:

Focusing on the environmental issues, including the reduction of scrap and consumer residuals, along with the benefiting from the economic value during the life cycle of goods/products leads the companies to have an important competitive approach. The aim of this paper is to present a new mixed nonlinear facility locationallocation model in recycling collection networks by considering multi-echelon, multi-suppliers, multi-collection centers and multifacilities in the recycling network. To make an appropriate decision in reality, demands, returns, capacities, costs and distances, are regarded uncertain in our model. For this purpose, a fuzzy mathematical programming-based possibilistic approach is introduced as a solution methodology from the recent literature to solve the proposed mixed-nonlinear programming model (MNLP). The computational experiments are provided to illustrate the applicability of the designed model in a supply chain environment and to help the decision makers to facilitate their analysis.

Keywords: Location-allocation model, recycling collection networks, fuzzy mathematical programming.

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7403 Model Order Reduction of Discrete-Time Systems Using Fuzzy C-Means Clustering

Authors: Anirudha Narain, Dinesh Chandra, Ravindra K. S.

Abstract:

A computationally simple approach of model order reduction for single input single output (SISO) and linear timeinvariant discrete systems modeled in frequency domain is proposed in this paper. Denominator of the reduced order model is determined using fuzzy C-means clustering while the numerator parameters are found by matching time moments and Markov parameters of high order system.

Keywords: Model Order reduction, Discrete-time system, Fuzzy C-Means Clustering, Padé approximation.

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7402 Production of Carbon Nanotubes by Iron Catalyst

Authors: Ezgi Dündar-Tekkaya, Nilgün Karatepe

Abstract:

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with their high mechanical, electrical, thermal and chemical properties are regarded as promising materials for many different potential applications. Having unique properties they can be used in a wide range of fields such as electronic devices, electrodes, drug delivery systems, hydrogen storage, textile etc. Catalytic chemical vapor deposition (CCVD) is a common method for CNT production especially for mass production. Catalysts impregnated on a suitable substrate are important for production with chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method. Iron catalyst and MgO substrate is one of most common catalyst-substrate combination used for CNT. In this study, CNTs were produced by CCVD of acetylene (C2H2) on magnesium oxide (MgO) powder substrate impregnated by iron nitrate (Fe(NO3)3•9H2O) solution. The CNT synthesis conditions were as follows: at synthesis temperatures of 500 and 800°C multiwall and single wall CNTs were produced respectively. Iron (Fe) catalysts were prepared by with Fe:MgO ratio of 1:100, 5:100 and 10:100. The duration of syntheses were 30 and 60 minutes for all temperatures and catalyst percentages. The synthesized materials were characterized by thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and Raman spectroscopy.

Keywords: Carbon nanotube, catalyst, catalytic chemical vapordeposition, iron

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7401 Fe3O4 and Fe3O4@Au Nanoparticles: Synthesis and Functionalisation for Biomolecular Attachment

Authors: Hendriëtte van der Walt, Lesley Chown, Richard Harris, Ndabenhle Sosibo, Robert Tshikhudo

Abstract:

The use of magnetic and magnetic/gold core/shell nanoparticles in biotechnology or medicine has shown good promise due to their hybrid nature which possesses superior magnetic and optical properties. Some of these potential applications include hyperthermia treatment, bio-separations, diagnostics, drug delivery and toxin removal. Synthesis refinement to control geometric and magnetic/optical properties, and finding functional surfactants for biomolecular attachment, are requirements to meet application specifics. Various high-temperature preparative methods were used for the synthesis of iron oxide and gold-coated iron oxide nanoparticles. Different surface functionalities, such as 11-aminoundecanoic and 11-mercaptoundecanoic acid, were introduced on the surface of the particles to facilitate further attachment of biomolecular functionality and drug-like molecules. Nanoparticle thermal stability, composition, state of aggregation, size and morphology were investigated and the results from techniques such as Fourier Transform-Infra Red spectroscopy (FT-IR), Ultraviolet visible spectroscopy (UV-vis), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) and thermal analysis are discussed.

Keywords: Core/shell, Iron oxide, Gold coating, Nanoparticles.

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7400 Compact Model of Dual-Drain MAGFETs Simulation

Authors: E. Yosry, W. Fikry, A. El-henawy, M. Marzouk

Abstract:

This work offers a study of new simple compact model of dual-drain Magnetic Field Effect Transistor (MAGFET) including geometrical effects and biasing dependency. An explanation of the sensitivity is investigated, involving carrier deflection as the dominant operating principle. Finally, model verification with simulation results is introduced to ensure that acceptable error of 2% is achieved.

Keywords: MAGFET, Modeling, Simulation, Split-drain.

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7399 Ecosystem Model for Environmental Applications

Authors: Cristina Schreiner, Romeo Ciobanu, Marius Pislaru

Abstract:

This paper aims to build a system based on fuzzy models that can be implemented in the assessment of ecological systems, to determine appropriate methods of action for reducing adverse effects on environmental and implicit the population. The model proposed provides new perspective for environmental assessment, and it can be used as a practical instrument for decision –making.

Keywords: Ecosystem model, Environmental security, Fuzzy logic, Sustainability of habitable regions.

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7398 Numerical Analysis of the Melting of Nano-Enhanced Phase Change Material in a Rectangular Latent Heat Storage Unit

Authors: Radouane Elbahjaoui, Hamid El Qarnia

Abstract:

Melting of Paraffin Wax (P116) dispersed with Al2O3 nanoparticles in a rectangular latent heat storage unit (LHSU) is numerically investigated. The storage unit consists of a number of vertical and identical plates of nano-enhanced phase change material (NEPCM) separated by rectangular channels in which heat transfer fluid flows (HTF: Water). A two dimensional mathematical model is considered to investigate numerically the heat and flow characteristics of the LHSU. The melting problem was formulated using the enthalpy porosity method. The finite volume approach was used for solving equations. The effects of nanoparticles’ volumetric fraction and the Reynolds number on the thermal performance of the storage unit were investigated.

Keywords: Nano-enhanced phase change material, phase change material, nanoparticles, latent heat storage unit, melting.

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7397 Formulation of Extended-Release Gliclazide Tablet Using a Mathematical Model for Estimation of Hypromellose

Authors: Farzad Khajavi, Farzaneh Jalilfar, Faranak Jafari, Leila Shokrani

Abstract:

Formulation of gliclazide in the form of extended-release tablet in 30 and 60 mg dosage forms was performed using hypromellose (HPMC K4M) as a retarding agent. Drug-release profiles were investigated in comparison with references Diamicron MR 30 and 60 mg tablets. The effect of size of powder particles, the amount of hypromellose in formulation, hardness of tablets, and also the effect of halving the tablets were investigated on drug release profile. A mathematical model which describes hypromellose behavior in initial times of drug release was proposed for the estimation of hypromellose content in modified-release gliclazide 60 mg tablet. This model is based on erosion of hypromellose in dissolution media. The model is applicable to describe release profiles of insoluble drugs. Therefore, by using dissolved amount of drug in initial times of dissolution and the model, the amount of hypromellose in formulation can be predictable. The model was used to predict the HPMC K4M content in modified-release gliclazide 30 mg and extended-release quetiapine 200 mg tablets.

Keywords: Hypromellose, gliclazide, drug release, modified-release tablet, mathematical model.

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7396 Analysis of P, d and 3He Elastically Scattered by 11B Nuclei at Different Energies

Authors: Ahmed H. Amer, A. Amar, Sh. Hamada, I. I. Bondouk

Abstract:

Elastic scattering of Protons and deuterons from 11B nuclei at different p, d energies have been analyzed within the framework of optical model code (ECIS88). The elastic scattering of 3He+11B nuclear system at different 3He energies have been analyzed using double folding model code (FRESCO). The real potential obtained from the folding model was supplemented by a phenomenological imaginary potential, and during the fitting process the real potential was normalized and the imaginary potential optimized. Volumetric integrals of the real and imaginary potential depths (JR, JW) have been calculated for 3He+11B system. The agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical calculations in the whole angular range is fairly good. Normalization factor Nr is calculated in the range between 0.70 and 1.236.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, optical model parameters, double folding model, nuclear density distribution.

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7395 Thermal Effect on Wave Interaction in Composite Structures

Authors: R. K. Apalowo, D. Chronopoulos, V. Thierry

Abstract:

There exist a wide range of failure modes in composite structures due to the increased usage of the structures especially in aerospace industry. Moreover, temperature dependent wave response of composite and layered structures have been continuously studied, though still limited, in the last decade mainly due to the broad operating temperature range of aerospace structures. A wave finite element (WFE) and finite element (FE) based computational method is presented by which the temperature dependent wave dispersion characteristics and interaction phenomenon in composite structures can be predicted. Initially, the temperature dependent mechanical properties of the panel in the range of -100 ◦C to 150 ◦C are measured experimentally using the Thermal Mechanical Analysis (TMA). Temperature dependent wave dispersion characteristics of each waveguide of the structural system, which is discretized as a system of a number of waveguides coupled by a coupling element, is calculated using the WFE approach. The wave scattering properties, as a function of temperature, is determined by coupling the WFE wave characteristics models of the waveguides with the full FE modelling of the coupling element on which defect is included. Numerical case studies are exhibited for two waveguides coupled through a coupling element.

Keywords: Temperature dependent mechanical characteristics, wave propagation properties, damage detection, wave finite element, composite structure.

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7394 Periodic Oscillations in a Delay Population Model

Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a nonlinear delay population model is investigated. Choosing the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we demonstrate that Hopf bifurcation will occur when the delay exceeds a critical value. Global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established. Numerical simulations supporting the theoretical findings are included.

Keywords: Population model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay, Global Hopf bifurcation.

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7393 Improved Fuzzy Neural Modeling for Underwater Vehicles

Authors: O. Hassanein, Sreenatha G. Anavatti, Tapabrata Ray

Abstract:

The dynamics of the Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are highly nonlinear and time varying and the hydrodynamic coefficients of vehicles are difficult to estimate accurately because of the variations of these coefficients with different navigation conditions and external disturbances. This study presents the on-line system identification of AUV dynamics to obtain the coupled nonlinear dynamic model of AUV as a black box. This black box has an input-output relationship based upon on-line adaptive fuzzy model and adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model techniques to overcome the uncertain external disturbance and the difficulties of modelling the hydrodynamic forces of the AUVs instead of using the mathematical model with hydrodynamic parameters estimation. The models- parameters are adapted according to the back propagation algorithm based upon the error between the identified model and the actual output of the plant. The proposed ANFN model adopts a functional link neural network (FLNN) as the consequent part of the fuzzy rules. Thus, the consequent part of the ANFN model is a nonlinear combination of input variables. Fuzzy control system is applied to guide and control the AUV using both adaptive models and mathematical model. Simulation results show the superiority of the proposed adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model in tracking of the behavior of the AUV accurately even in the presence of noise and disturbance.

Keywords: AUV, AUV dynamic model, fuzzy control, fuzzy modelling, adaptive fuzzy control, back propagation, system identification, neural fuzzy model, FLNN.

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7392 A Hybrid Recommender System based on Collaborative Filtering and Cloud Model

Authors: Chein-Shung Hwang, Ruei-Siang Fong

Abstract:

User-based Collaborative filtering (CF), one of the most prevailing and efficient recommendation techniques, provides personalized recommendations to users based on the opinions of other users. Although the CF technique has been successfully applied in various applications, it suffers from serious sparsity problems. The cloud-model approach addresses the sparsity problems by constructing the user-s global preference represented by a cloud eigenvector. The user-based CF approach works well with dense datasets while the cloud-model CF approach has a greater performance when the dataset is sparse. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach that integrates the predictions from both the user-based CF and the cloud-model CF approaches. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid approach can ameliorate the sparsity problem and provide an improved prediction quality.

Keywords: Cloud model, Collaborative filtering, Hybridrecommender system

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7391 Space Vector PWM and Model Predictive Control for Voltage Source Inverter Control

Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a comparative assessment of Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for two-level three phase (2L-3P) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). VSI with associated system is subjected to both control techniques and the results are compared. Matlab/Simulink was used to model, simulate and validate the control schemes. Findings of this study show that MPC is superior to SVPWM in terms of total harmonic distortion (THD) and implementation.

Keywords: Model Predictive Control, Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation, Voltage Source Inverter.

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7390 Rotor Concepts for the Counter Flow Heat Recovery Fan

Authors: Christoph Speer

Abstract:

Decentralized ventilation systems should combine a small and economical design with high aerodynamic and thermal efficiency. The Counter Flow Heat Recovery Fan (CHRF) provides the ability to meet these requirements by using only one cross flow fan with a large number of blades to generate both airflows and which simultaneously acts as a regenerative counter flow heat exchanger. The successful development of the first laboratory prototype has shown the potential of this ventilation system. Occurring condensate on the surfaces of the fan blades during the cold and dry season can be recovered through the characteristic mode of operation. Hence the CHRF provides the possibility to avoid the need for frost protection and condensate drain. Through the implementation of system-specific solutions for flow balancing and summer bypass the required functionality is assured. The scalability of the CHRF concept allows the use in renovation as well as in new buildings from single-room devices through to systems for office buildings. High aerodynamic and thermal efficiency and the lower number of required mechatronic components should enable a reduction in investment as well as operating costs. The rotor is the key component of the system, the requirements and possible implementation variants are presented.

Keywords: CHRF, counter flow heat recovery fan, decentralized ventilation system, renovation.

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7389 Numerical Investigation of Wave Interaction with Double Vertical Slotted Walls

Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Schlenkhoff

Abstract:

Recently, permeable breakwaters have been suggested to overcome the disadvantages of fully protection breakwaters. These protection structures have minor impacts on the coastal environment and neighboring beaches where they provide a more economical protection from waves and currents. For regular waves, a numerical model is used (FLOW-3D, VOF) to investigate the hydraulic performance of a permeable breakwater. The model of permeable breakwater consists of a pair of identical vertical slotted walls with an impermeable upper and lower part, where the draft is a decimal multiple of the total depth. The middle part is permeable with a porosity of 50%. The second barrier is located at distant of 0.5 and 1.5 of the water depth from the first one. The numerical model is validated by comparisons with previous laboratory data and semi-analytical results of the same model. A good agreement between the numerical results and both laboratory data and semi-analytical results has been shown and the results indicate the applicability of the numerical model to reproduce most of the important features of the interaction. Through the numerical investigation, the friction factor of the model is carefully discussed.

Keywords: Coastal structures, permeable breakwater, slotted wall, numerical model, energy dissipation coefficient.

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7388 Model Order Reduction for Frequency Response and Effect of Order of Method for Matching Condition

Authors: Aref Ghafouri, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi

Abstract:

In this paper, model order reduction method is used for approximation in linear and nonlinearity aspects in some experimental data. This method can be used for obtaining offline reduced model for approximation of experimental data and can produce and follow the data and order of system and also it can match to experimental data in some frequency ratios. In this study, the method is compared in different experimental data and influence of choosing of order of the model reduction for obtaining the best and sufficient matching condition for following the data is investigated in format of imaginary and reality part of the frequency response curve and finally the effect and important parameter of number of order reduction in nonlinear experimental data is explained further.

Keywords: Frequency response, Order of model reduction, frequency matching condition.

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7387 A New Physical Modeling for Multiquantum Well Structure APD Considering Nonuniformity of Electric Field in Active Regin

Authors: F. Barzegar, M. H. Sheikhi

Abstract:

In the present work we model a Multiquantum Well structure Separate Absorption and Charge Multiplication Avalanche Photodiode (MQW-SACM-APD), while the Absorption region coincide with the MQW. We consider the nonuniformity of electric field using split-step method in active region. This model is based on the carrier rate equations in the different regions of the device. Using the model we obtain the photocurrent, and dark current. As an example, InGaAs/InP SACM-APD and MQW-SACM-APD are simulated. There is a good agreement between the simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: Avalanche Photodiode, Physical Model, MultiquantumWell, Split Step Method.

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7386 LCA/CFD Studies of Artisanal Brick Manufacture in Mexico

Authors: H. A. Lopez-Aguilar, E. A. Huerta-Reynoso, J. A. Gomez, J. A. Duarte-Moller, A. Perez-Hernandez

Abstract:

Environmental performance of artisanal brick manufacture was studied by Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) methodology and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis in Mexico. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the environmental impact during artisanal brick manufacture. LCA cradle-to-gate approach was complemented with CFD analysis to carry out an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The lifecycle includes the stages of extraction, baking and transportation to the gate. The functional unit of this study was the production of a single brick in Chihuahua, Mexico and the impact categories studied were carcinogens, respiratory organics and inorganics, climate change radiation, ozone layer depletion, ecotoxicity, acidification/ eutrophication, land use, mineral use and fossil fuels. Laboratory techniques for fuel characterization, gas measurements in situ, and AP42 emission factors were employed in order to calculate gas emissions for inventory data. The results revealed that the categories with greater impacts are ecotoxicity and carcinogens. The CFD analysis is helpful in predicting the thermal diffusion and contaminants from a defined source. LCA-CFD synergy complemented the EIA and allowed us to identify the problem of thermal efficiency within the system.

Keywords: LCA, CFD, brick, artisanal.

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7385 Performance, Emission and Combustion Characteristics of a Variable Compression Ratio Diesel Engine Fueled with Karanj Biodiesel and Its Blends

Authors: Ajay V. Kolhe, R. E. Shelke, S. S. Khandare

Abstract:

The use of biodiesel in conventional diesel engines results in substantial reduction of unburned hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide and particulate matters. The performance, emission and combustion characteristics of a single cylinder four stroke variable compression ratio engine when fueled with Karanja (Pongamia) methyl ester and its 10-50 % blends with diesel (on a volume basis) are investigated and compared with standard diesel. The suitability of karanja methyl ester as a biofuel has been established in this study. The useful brake power obtained is similar to diesel fuel for all loads. Experiment has been conducted at a fixed engine speed of 1500 rpm, variable load and at compression ratios of 17.5:1 and 18.5:1. The impact of compression ratio on fuel consumption, combustion pressures and exhaust gas emissions has been investigated and presented. Optimum compression ratio which gives best performance has been identified. The results indicate longer ignition delay, maximum rate of pressure rise, lower heat release rate and higher mass fraction burnt at higher compression ratio for pongamia oil methyl ester when compared to that of diesel. The brake thermal efficiency for pongamia oil methyl ester blends and diesel has been calculated and the blend B20 is found to give maximum thermal efficiency. The blends when used as fuel results in reduction of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon and increase in nitrogen oxides emissions. PME as an oxygenated fuel generated more complete combustion, which means increased torque and power. This is also supported with higher thermal efficiencies of the PME blends. NOx is slightly increased due to the higher combustion temperature and the presence of fuel oxygen with the blend at full load. PME as a new Biodiesel and its blends can be used in diesel engines without any engine modification.

Keywords: Variable compression ratio CI engine, performance, combustion, emissions, biodiesel.

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7384 The Ability of Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Based On Nelson-Siegel and Svensson Model

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

Abstract:

Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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7383 Predicting DHF Incidence in Northern Thailand using Time Series Analysis Technique

Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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7382 Input-Output Analysis in Laptop Computer Manufacturing

Authors: H. Z. Ulukan, E. Demircioğlu, M. Erol Genevois

Abstract:

The scope of this paper and the aim of proposed model were to apply monetary Input –Output (I-O) analysis to point out the importance of reusing know-how and other requirements in order to reduce the production costs in a manufacturing process for a laptop computer. I-O approach using the monetary input-output model is employed to demonstrate the impacts of different factors in a manufacturing process. A sensitivity analysis showing the correlation between these different factors is also presented. It is expected that the recommended model would have an advantageous effect in the cost minimization process.

Keywords: Input-Output Analysis, Monetary Input-Output Model, Manufacturing Process, Laptop Computer.

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7381 Numerical Heat Transfer Performance of Water-Based Graphene Nanoplatelets

Authors: Ahmad Amiri, Hamed K. Arzani, S. N. Kazi, B. T. Chew

Abstract:

Since graphene nanoplatelet (GNP) is a promising material due to desirable thermal properties, this paper is related to the thermophysical and heat transfer performance of covalently functionalized GNP-based water/ethylene glycol nanofluid through an annular channel. After experimentally measuring thermophysical properties of prepared samples, a computational fluid dynamics study has been carried out to examine the heat transfer and pressure drop of well-dispersed and stabilized nanofluids. The effect of concentration of GNP and Reynolds number at constant wall temperature boundary condition under turbulent flow regime on convective heat transfer coefficient has been investigated. Based on the results, for different Reynolds numbers, the convective heat transfer coefficient of the prepared nanofluid is higher than that of the base fluid. Also, the enhancement of convective heat transfer coefficient and thermal conductivity increase with the increase of GNP concentration in base-fluid. Based on the results of this investigation, there is a significant enhancement on the heat transfer rate associated with loading well-dispersed GNP in base-fluid.

Keywords: Nanofluid, turbulent flow, forced convection flow, graphene, annular, annulus.

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7380 Forecasting of Flash Floods over Wadi Watier –Sinai Peninsula Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Authors: Moustafa S. El-Sammany

Abstract:

Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated, investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was 10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between WRF model and real measurements results.

Keywords: Early warning system, Flash floods forecasting, WadiWatier, WRF model.

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7379 Thermally Stable Nanocrystalline Aluminum Alloys Processed by Mechanical Alloying and High Frequency Induction Heat Sintering

Authors: Hany R. Ammar, Khalil A. Khalil, El-Sayed M. Sherif

Abstract:

The current study investigated the influence of milling time and ball-to-powder (BPR) weight ratio on the microstructural constituents and mechanical properties of bulk nanocrystalline Al; Al-10%Cu; and Al-10%Cu-5%Ti alloys. Powder consolidation was carried out using a high frequency induction heat sintering where the processed metal powders were sintered into a dense and strong bulk material. The powders and the bulk samples were characterized using XRD and FEGSEM techniques. The mechanical properties were evaluated at various temperatures of 25°C, 100°C, 200°C, 300°C and 400°C to study the thermal stability of the processed alloys. The processed bulk nanocrystalline alloys displayed extremely high hardness values even at elevated temperatures. The Al-10%Cu-5%Ti alloy displayed the highest hardness values at room and elevated temperatures which are related to the presence of Ti-containing phases such as Al3Ti and AlCu2Ti. These phases are thermally stable and retain the high hardness values at elevated temperatures up to 400ºC.

Keywords: Nanocrystalline Aluminum Alloys, Mechanical Alloying, Sintering, Hardness, Thermal Stability.

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