Search results for: fire behavior model

Authors: Mohammad Abdallah

Abstract:

Due to the constant increase in terrorist attacks, the research and engineering communities have given significant attention to building performance under explosions. This paper presents a methodology for studying and simulating the dynamic responses of steel structures during external detonations, particularly for accurately investigating the impact of incrementing charge weight on the members total behavior, resistance and failure. Prediction damage method was introduced to evaluate the damage level of the steel members based on five scenarios of explosions. Johnson–Cook strength and failure model have been used as well as ABAQUS finite element code to simulate the explicit dynamic analysis, and antecedent field tests were used to verify the acceptance and accuracy of the proposed material strength and failure model. Based on the structural response, evaluation criteria such as deflection, vertical displacement, drift index, and damage level; the obtained results show the vulnerability of steel columns and un-braced steel frames which are designed and optimized to carry dead and live load to resist and endure blast loading.

Keywords: Steel structure, blast load, terrorist attacks, charge weight, damage level.

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Authors: S. Panda, S. K. Tomar, R. Prasad, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Order reduction of linear-time invariant systems employing two methods; one using the advantages of Routh approximation and other by an evolutionary technique is presented in this paper. In Routh approximation method the denominator of the reduced order model is obtained using Routh approximation while the numerator of the reduced order model is determined using the indirect approach of retaining the time moments and/or Markov parameters of original system. By this method the reduced order model guarantees stability if the original high order model is stable. In the second method Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is employed to reduce the higher order model. PSO method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. Both the methods are illustrated through numerical examples.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction, Markov Parameters, Routh Approximation, Particle Swarm Optimization, Integral Squared Error, Steady State Stability.

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Authors: S. Cagin, X. Fischer, E. Delacourt, N. Bourabaa, C. Morin, D. Coutellier, B. Carré, S. Loumé

Abstract:

The complexity of scavenging by ports and its impact on engine efficiency create the need to understand and to model it as realistically as possible. However, there are few empirical scavenging models and these are highly specialized. In a design optimization process, they appear very restricted and their field of use is limited. This paper presents a comparison of two methods to establish and reduce a model of the scavenging process in 2-stroke diesel engines. To solve the lack of scavenging models, a CFD model has been developed and is used as the referent case. However, its large size requires a reduction. Two techniques have been tested depending on their fields of application: The NTF method and neural networks. They both appear highly appropriate drastically reducing the model’s size (over 90% reduction) with a low relative error rate (under 10%). Furthermore, each method produces a reduced model which can be used in distinct specialized fields of application: the distribution of a quantity (mass fraction for example) in the cylinder at each time step (pseudo-dynamic model) or the qualification of scavenging at the end of the process (pseudo-static model).

Keywords: Diesel engine, Design optimization, Model reduction, Neural network, NTF algorithm, Scavenging.

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Authors: A. Rangan, A. Tansu

Abstract:

This paper generalizes Yeh Lam-s shock model for renewal shock arrivals and random threshold. Several interesting statistical measures are explicitly obtained. A few special cases and an optimal replacement problem are also discussed.

Keywords: shock model, optimal replacement, random threshold, shocks.

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Authors: Aliakbar Golshani, Seyyed Mehdi Poorhashemi, Mahsa Gharizadeh

Abstract:

The under passing tunnels are strongly influenced by the soils around. There are some complexities in the specification of real soil behavior, owing to the fact that lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties, and additionally, inappropriate soil constitutive models. Such mentioned factors may cause incompatible settlements in numerical analysis with the obtained values in actual construction. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific tunnel constructed by NATM. The tunnel has a depth of 11.4 m, height of 12.2 m, and width of 14.4 m with 2.5 lanes. The numerical modeling was based on a 2D finite element program. The soil material behavior was modeled by hardening soil model. According to the field observations, the numerical estimated settlement at the ground surface was approximately four times more than the measured one, after the entire installation of the initial lining, indicating that some unknown factors affect the values. Consequently, the geotechnical parameters are accurately revised by a numerical back-analysis using laboratory and field test data and based on the obtained monitoring data. The obtained result confirms that typically, the soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated. And additionally, the constitutive models cannot be applied properly for all soil conditions.

Keywords: NATM tunnel, initial lining, field test data, laboratory test data, monitoring data, numerical back-analysis.

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Authors: R. Kongnuy, P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

We used mathematical model to study the transmission of dengue disease. The model is developed in which the human population is separated into two populations, pregnant and non-pregnant humans. The dynamical analysis method is used for analyzing this modified model. Two equilibrium states are found and the conditions for stability of theses two equilibrium states are established. Numerical results are shown for each equilibrium state. The basic reproduction numbers are found and they are compared by using numerical simulations.

Keywords: Basic reproductive number, dengue disease, equilibrium states, pregnancy.

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Authors: M. Faraji, F. Berroug

Abstract:

A one-dimensional mathematical model was developed in order to analyze and optimize the latent heat storage wall. The governing equations for energy transport were developed by using the enthalpy method and discretized with volume control scheme. The resulting algebraic equations were next solved iteratively by using TDMA algorithm. A series of numerical investigations were conducted in order to examine the effects of the thickness of the PCM layer on the thermal behavior of the proposed heating system. Results are obtained for thermal gain and temperature fluctuation. The charging discharging process was also presented and analyzed.

Keywords: Phase change material, Building, Concrete, Latent heat, Thermal control.

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Authors: Mangesh R. Phate, V. H. Tatwawadi

Abstract:

This paper is intended to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based model of material removal rate (MRR) in the turning of ferrous and nonferrous material in a Indian small-scale industry. MRR of the formulated model was proved with the testing data and artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed for the analysis and prediction of the relationship between inputs and output parameters during the turning of ferrous and nonferrous materials. The input parameters of this model are operator, work-piece, cutting process, cutting tool, machine and the environment.

The ANN model consists of a three layered feedforward back propagation neural network. The network is trained with pairs of independent/dependent datasets generated when machining ferrous and nonferrous material. A very good performance of the neural network, in terms of contract with experimental data, was achieved. The model may be used for the testing and forecast of the complex relationship between dependent and the independent parameters in turning operations.

Keywords: Field data based model, Artificial neural network, Simulation, Convectional Turning, Material removal rate.

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Authors: Mazhar B. Tayel, Amr H. Yassin

Abstract:

A proposed small-signal model parameters for a pseudomorphic high electron mobility transistor (PHEMT) is presented. Both extrinsic and intrinsic circuit elements of a smallsignal model are determined using genetic algorithm (GA) as a stochastic global search and optimization tool. The parameters extraction of the small-signal model is performed on 200-μm gate width AlGaAs/InGaAs PHEMT. The equivalent circuit elements for a proposed 18 elements model are determined directly from the measured S- parameters. The GA is used to extract the parameters of the proposed small-signal model from 0.5 up to 18 GHz.

Keywords: PHEMT, Genetic Algorithms, small signal modeling, optimization.

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Authors: Mahmoud Hassanlourad, Mehran Naghizadehrokni, Vahid Molaei

Abstract:

In this study, the seismic behavior of a shallow tunnel with square cross section is investigated in a two layered and elastic heterogeneous environment using numerical method. To do so, FLAC finite difference software was used. Behavioral model of the ground and tunnel structure was assumed linear elastic. Dynamic load was applied to the model for 0.2 seconds from the bottom in form of a square pulse with maximum acceleration of 1 m/s². The interface between the two layers was considered at three different levels of crest, middle, and bottom of the tunnel. The stiffness of the two upper and lower layers was considered to be varied from 10 MPa to 1000 MPa. Deformation of cross section of the tunnel due to dynamic load propagation, as well as the values of axial force and bending moment created in the tunnel structure, were examined in the three states mentioned above. The results of analyses show that heterogeneity of the environment, its stratification, and positioning of the interface of the two layers with respect to tunnel height and the stiffness ratio of the two layers have significant effects on the value of bending moment, axial force, and distortion of tunnel cross-section.

Keywords: Dynamic analysis, shallow-buried tunnel, two-layered ground.

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Authors: Budiyanto, Hening Widi Oetomo

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Magetan area is going to be the object of this research which is located in East Java, Indonesia. The data were obtained from 270 civil servants working at the Magetan District government. The data were analyzed using the Structural Equation Modeling with Partial Least Square program. The research showed the following findings: (1) job motivation variable has a positive and significant effect on organizational citizenship behavior (OCB); (2) work environment has positive and significant effect on OCB; (3) leadership variable has positive and significant effect on OCB; (4) job motivation variable has no significant effect on job satisfaction; (5) work environment variable has no significant effect on job satisfaction; (6) leadership variable has no significant effect on job satisfaction; (7) OCB is positively and significantly associated with job satisfaction; (8) job satisfaction variable is positively and significantly correlated with quality of public service at the Magetan District government.

Keywords: Job Satisfaction, Leadership, OrganizationalCitizenship Behavior (OCB), Quality of Public Service

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Authors: Cristian Chacha, David Asiain, Jesús Ponce de León, José Ramón Beltrán

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This work explores and characterizes the behavior of the AFE AD5941 in impedance measurement using an embedded algorithm that allows using a constant current AC source. The main aim of this research is to improve the exact measurement of impedance values for their application in EDA-focused wearable devices. Through comprehensive study and characterization, it has been observed that employing a measurement sequence with a constant current source produces results with increased dispersion but higher accuracy and a more linear behavior with respect to error. As a result, this approach leads to a more accurate system for impedance measurement.

Keywords: Electrodermal Activity, constant current AC source, wearable, precision, accuracy, impedance.

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Authors: Isari Pairoa, Proud Arunrangsiwed

Abstract:

Celebrity and brand mascot endorsement have been explored for more than three decades. Both endorsers can effectively transfer their reputation to corporate image and can influence the customers to purchase the product. However, there was little known about the mediators between the level of endorsement and its effect on buying behavior. The objective of the current study is to identify the gab of the previous studies and to seek possible mediators. It was found that consumer’s memory and identification are the mediators, of source credibility and endorsement effect. A future study should confirm the model of endorsement, which was established in the current study.

Keywords: Product endorsement, memory, identification theory, source credibility, unintentional effect.

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Authors: P. Sengottuvelan, T. Gopalakrishnan

Abstract:

Web Usage Mining is the application of data mining techniques to find usage patterns from web log data, so as to grasp required patterns and serve the requirements of Web-based applications. User’s expertise on the internet may be improved by minimizing user’s web access latency. This may be done by predicting the future search page earlier and the same may be prefetched and cached. Therefore, to enhance the standard of web services, it is needed topic to research the user web navigation behavior. Analysis of user’s web navigation behavior is achieved through modeling web navigation history. We propose this technique which cluster’s the user sessions, based on the K-medoids technique.

Keywords: Clustering, K-medoids, Recommendation, User Session, Web Usage Mining.

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Authors: V. Agrawal, A. Sharma

Abstract:

High Strength Concrete (HSC) is defined as concrete that meets special combination of performance and uniformity requirements that cannot be achieved routinely using conventional constituents and normal mixing, placing, and curing procedures. It is a highly complex material, which makes modeling its behavior a very difficult task. This paper aimed to show possible applicability of Neural Networks (NN) to predict the slump in High Strength Concrete (HSC). Neural Network models is constructed, trained and tested using the available test data of 349 different concrete mix designs of High Strength Concrete (HSC) gathered from a particular Ready Mix Concrete (RMC) batching plant. The most versatile Neural Network model is selected to predict the slump in concrete. The data used in the Neural Network models are arranged in a format of eight input parameters that cover the Cement, Fly Ash, Sand, Coarse Aggregate (10 mm), Coarse Aggregate (20 mm), Water, Super-Plasticizer and Water/Binder ratio. Furthermore, to test the accuracy for predicting slump in concrete, the final selected model is further used to test the data of 40 different concrete mix designs of High Strength Concrete (HSC) taken from the other batching plant. The results are compared on the basis of error function (or performance function).

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Concrete, prediction ofslump, slump in concrete

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Authors: Yung C. Ho, Hui C. Fang, Ming J. Hsieh

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When consistently innovative business-models can give companies a competitive advantage, longitudinal empirical research, which can reflect dynamic business-model changes, has yet to prove a definitive connection. This study consequently employs a dynamic perspective in conjunction with innovation theory to examine the relationship between the types of business-model innovation and firm value. This study tries to examine various types of business-model innovation in high-end and low-end technology industries such as HTC and the 7-Eleven chain stores with research periods of 14 years and 32 years, respectively. The empirical results suggest that adopting radical business-model innovation in addition to expanding new target markets can successfully lead to a competitive advantage. Sustained advanced technological competences and service/product innovation are the key successful factors in high-end and low-end technology industry business-models respectively. In sum up, the business-model innovation can yield a higher market value and financial value in high-end technology industries than low-end ones.

Keywords: Business-model, Dynamic Perspective, Firm Value, Innovation

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Authors: Karel Frajtak, Miroslav Bures, Ivan Jelinek

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Software testing is important stage of software development cycle. Current testing process involves tester and electronic documents with test case scenarios. In this paper we focus on new approach to testing process using automated test case generation and tester guidance through the system based on the model of the system. Test case generation and model-based testing is not possible without proper system model. We aim on providing better feedback from the testing process thus eliminating the unnecessary paper work.

Keywords: Model based testing, test automation, test generating, tester support.

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Authors: Zahra Ramezanpanah, Joachim Carvallo, Aurelien Rodriguez

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This paper aims to detect anomalies in streaming data using machine learning algorithms. In this regard, we designed two separate pipelines and evaluated the effectiveness of each separately. The first pipeline, based on supervised machine learning methods, consists of two phases. In the first phase, we trained several supervised models using the UNSW-NB15 data set. We measured the efficiency of each using different performance metrics and selected the best model for the second phase. At the beginning of the second phase, we first, using Argus Server, sniffed a local area network. Several types of attacks were simulated and then sent the sniffed data to a running algorithm at short intervals. This algorithm can display the results of each packet of received data in real-time using the trained model. The second pipeline presented in this paper is based on unsupervised algorithms, in which a Temporal Graph Network (TGN) is used to monitor a local network. The TGN is trained to predict the probability of future states of the network based on its past behavior. Our contribution in this section is introducing an indicator to identify anomalies from these predicted probabilities.

Keywords: Cyber-security, Intrusion Detection Systems, Temporal Graph Network, Anomaly Detection.

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Authors: Jānis Zuters

Abstract:

There are a lot of extensions made to the classic model of multi-layer perceptron (MLP). A notable amount of them has been designed to hasten the learning process without considering the quality of generalization. The paper proposes a new MLP extension based on exploiting topology of the input layer of the network. Experimental results show the extended model to improve upon generalization capability in certain cases. The new model requires additional computational resources to compare to the classic model, nevertheless the loss in efficiency isn-t regarded to be significant.

Keywords: Learning algorithm, multi-layer perceptron, topology.

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Authors: Paula A. Cruise, Carvell McLeary

Abstract:

Employee turnover leads to lowered productivity, decreased morale and work quality, and psychological effects associated with employee separation and replacement. Yet, it remains unknown why talented employees willingly withdraw from organizations. This uncertainty is worsened as studies; a) priorities organizational over individual predictors resulting in restriction in range in turnover measurement; b) focus on actual rather than intended turnover thereby limiting conceptual understanding of the turnover construct and its relationship with other variables and; c) produce inconsistent findings across cultures, contexts and industries despite a clear need for a unified perspective. The current study addressed these gaps by adopting the theory of planned behavior (TPB) framework to examine socio-cognitive factors in organizational trust and individual turnover intentions among bankers and energy employees in Jamaica. In a comparative study of n=369 [n_bank= 264; male=57 (22.73%); n_energy =105; male =45 (42.86)], it was hypothesized that organizational trust was a predictor of employee turnover intention, and the effect of individual, group, cognitive and socio-affective variables varied across industry. Findings from structural equation modelling confirmed the hypothesis, with a model of both cognitive and socio-affective variables being a better fit [CMIN (χ²) = 800.067, df = 364, p ≤ .000; CFI = 0.950; RMSEA = 0.057 with 90% C.I. (0.052 - 0.062); PCLOSE = 0.016; PNFI = 0.818 in predicting turnover intention. The findings are discussed in relation to socio-cognitive components of trust models and predicting negative employee behaviors across cultures and industries.

Keywords: Context-specific organizational trust, cross-cultural psychology, theory of planned behavior, employee turnover intention.

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Authors: S. Reaz Ahmed, M. S. Kaiser

Abstract:

The tribological behavior of commercially used Perspex was evaluated under dry and wet sliding condition using a pin-on-disc wear tester with different applied loads ranging from 2.5 to 20 N. Experiments were conducted with varying sliding distance from 0.2 km to 4.6 km, wherein the sliding velocity was kept constant, 0.64 ms^-1. The results reveal that the weight loss increases with applied load and the sliding distance. The nature of the wear rate was very similar in both the sliding environments in which initially the wear rate increased very rapidly with increasing sliding distance and then progressed to a slower rate. Moreover, the wear rate in wet sliding environment was significantly lower than that under dry sliding condition. The worn surfaces were characterized by optical microscope and SEM. It is found that surface modification has significant effect on sliding wear performance of Perspex.

Keywords: Perspex, wear, friction, SEM.

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Authors: Udomporn Yingpaisuk, Premwadee Karuhadej

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The purposed of this research was to study the eating habit of teenage pregnancy and its relationship to the knowledge of nutrition during pregnancy. The 100 samples were derived from simple random sampling technique of the teenage pregnancy in Bangkae District. The questionnaire was used to collect data with the reliability of 0.8. The data were analyzed by SPSS for Windows with multiple regression technique. Percentage, mean and the relationship of knowledge of eating and eating behavior were obtained. The research results revealed that their knowledge in nutrition was at the average of 4.07 and their eating habit that they mentioned most was to refrain from alcohol and caffeine at 82% and the knowledge in nutrition influenced their eating habits at 54% with the statistically significant level of 0.001.

Keywords: Teenage pregnancy, knowledge of nutrition, eating habit.

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Authors: F. Achouri, K. Chouicha

Abstract:

The main parameters affecting the workability are the water content, particle size, and the total surface of the grains, as long as the mixing water begins by wetting the surface of the grains and then fills the voids between the grains to form entrapped water, the quantity of water remaining is called free water. The aim of this study is to undertake a fractal approach through the relationship between the concrete formulation parameters and workability. To develop this approach a series of concrete taken from the literature was investigated by varying formulation parameters such as G/S, the quantity of cement C and the quantity of water W. We also call another model as the model of water layer thickness and model of paste layer thickness to judge their relevance, hence the following results: the relevance of the water layer thickness model is considered as a relevant when there is a variation in the water quantity. The model of the paste layer thickness is only applicable if we considered that the paste is made with the grain value Dmax = 2.85: value from which we see a stability of the model.

Keywords: Concrete, fractal method, paste layer thickness, water layer thickness, workability.

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Authors: I. Ioannou, I. M. Gitman

Abstract:

This study focused on the contribution of micro-mechanical parameters on the macro-mechanical response of short fiber composites, namely polypropylene matrix reinforced by glass fibers. In the framework of this paper, an attention has been given to the glass fibers length, as micromechanical parameter influences the overall macroscopic material’s behavior. Three dimensional numerical models were developed and analyzed through the concept of a Representative Volume Element (RVE). Results of the RVE-based approach were compared with analytical Halpin-Tsai’s model.

Keywords: Effective properties, representative volume element, short fiber reinforced composites.

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Authors: Iqbal Hossain, Dr. Monzur Imteaz, Dr. Shirley Gato-Trinidad, Prof. Abdallah Shanableh

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Estimation of runoff water quality parameters is required to determine appropriate water quality management options. Various models are used to estimate runoff water quality parameters. However, most models provide event-based estimates of water quality parameters for specific sites. The work presented in this paper describes the development of a model that continuously simulates the accumulation and wash-off of water quality pollutants in a catchment. The model allows estimation of pollutants build-up during dry periods and pollutants wash-off during storm events. The model was developed by integrating two individual models; rainfall-runoff model, and catchment water quality model. The rainfall-runoff model is based on the time-area runoff estimation method. The model allows users to estimate the time of concentration using a range of established methods. The model also allows estimation of the continuing runoff losses using any of the available estimation methods (i.e., constant, linearly varying or exponentially varying). Pollutants build-up in a catchment was represented by one of three pre-defined functions; power, exponential, or saturation. Similarly, pollutants wash-off was represented by one of three different functions; power, rating-curve, or exponential. The developed runoff water quality model was set-up to simulate the build-up and wash-off of total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The application of the model was demonstrated using available runoff and TSS field data from road and roof surfaces in the Gold Coast, Australia. The model provided excellent representation of the field data demonstrating the simplicity yet effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Catchment, continuous pollutants build-up, pollutants wash-off, runoff, runoff water quality model.

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Authors: Zubair Ahmad, M. H. Sayyad, M. Yaseen, M. Ali

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In this work, an organic compound 5,10,15,20- Tetrakis(3,5-di-tertbutylphenyl)porphyrinatocopper(II) (TDTBPPCu) is studied as an active material for thin film electronic devices. To investigate the electrical properties of TDTBPPCu, junction of TDTBPPCu with heavily doped n-Si and Al is fabricated. TDTBPPCu film was sandwiched between Al and n-Si electrodes. Various electrical parameters of TDTBPPCu are determined. The current-voltage characteristics of the junction are nonlinear, asymmetric and show rectification behavior, which gives the clue of formation of depletion region. This behavior indicates the potential of TDTBPPCu for electronics applications. The current-voltage and capacitance-voltage techniques are used to find the different electronic parameters.

Keywords: P-type, organic semiconductor, Electricalcharacteristics

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Authors: Mohamed Amine Ben Henni, Taher Hassaine Daouadji, Boussad Abbes, Yu Ming Li, Fazilay Abbes

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The reinforcement and repair of concrete structures by bonding composite materials have become relatively common operations. Different types of composite materials can be used: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) as well as functionally graded material (FGM). The development of analytical and numerical models describing the mechanical behavior of structures in civil engineering reinforced by composite materials is necessary. These models will enable engineers to select, design, and size adequate reinforcements for the various types of damaged structures. This study focuses on the free vibration behavior of orthotropic laminated composite plates using a refined shear deformation theory. In these models, the distribution of transverse shear stresses is considered as parabolic satisfying the zero-shear stress condition on the top and bottom surfaces of the plates without using shear correction factors. In this analysis, the equation of motion for simply supported thick laminated rectangular plates is obtained by using the Hamilton’s principle. The accuracy of the developed model is demonstrated by comparing our results with solutions derived from other higher order models and with data found in the literature. Besides, a finite-element analysis is used to calculate the natural frequencies of laminated composite plates and is compared with those obtained by the analytical approach.

Keywords: Composites materials, laminated composite plate, shear deformation theory of plates, finite element analysis, free vibration.

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Authors: Svetlana Saksonova

Abstract:

Every commercial bank optimises its asset portfolio depending on the profitability of assets and chosen or imposed constraints. This paper proposes and applies a stylized model for optimising banks' asset and liability structure, reflecting profitability of different asset categories and their risks as well as costs associated with different liability categories and reserve requirements. The level of detail for asset and liability categories is chosen to create a suitably parsimonious model and to include the most important categories in the model. It is shown that the most appropriate optimisation criterion for the model is the maximisation of the ratio of net interest income to assets. The maximisation of this ratio is subject to several constraints. Some are accounting identities or dictated by legislative requirements; others vary depending on the market objectives for a particular bank. The model predicts variable amount of assets allocated to loan provision.

Keywords: asset structure, commercial bank, model, optimisation

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Authors: Suhas K, Sripadaraja K

Abstract:

This paper details few mechanical modeling and design issues of RF MEMS switches. We concentrate on an electrostatically actuated broad side series switch; surface micromachined with a crab leg membrane. The same results are extended to any complex structure. With available experimental data and fabrication results, we present the variation in dynamic performance and compliance of the switch with reference to few design issues, which we find are critical in deciding the dynamic behavior of the switch, without compromise on the RF characteristics. The optimization of pull in voltage, transient time and resonant frequency with regard to these critical design parameters are also presented.

Keywords: Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS), RadioFrequency MEMS, Modeling, Actuators

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price

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