Search results for: shocks.

Authors: Robert Cep, Lenka Ocenasova, Jana Novakova, Karel Kouril, Jan Valicek, Branimir Barisic

Abstract:

This paper deals with the problem of thermal and mechanical shocks, which rising during operation, mostly at interrupted cut. Here will be solved their impact on the cutting edge tool life, the impact of coating technology on resistance to shocks and experimental determination of tool life in heating flame. Resistance of removable cutting edges against thermal and mechanical shock is an important indicator of quality as well as its abrasion resistance. Breach of the edge or its crumble may occur due to cyclic loading. We can observe it not only during the interrupted cutting (milling, turning areas abandoned hole or slot), but also in continuous cutting. This is due to the volatility of cutting force on cutting. Frequency of the volatility in this case depends on the type of rising chips (chip size element). For difficult-to-machine materials such as austenitic steel particularly happened at higher cutting speeds for the localization of plastic deformation in the shear plane and for the inception of separate elements substantially continuous chips. This leads to variations of cutting forces substantially greater than for other types of steel.

Keywords: Cutting Tool Life, Heating, Mechanical Shocks, Thermal Shocks

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Authors: Rafik Medjoudj, Rabah Medjoudj, D. Aissani

Abstract:

The electrical substation components are often subject to degradation due to over-voltage or over-current, caused by a short circuit or a lightning. A particular interest is given to the circuit breaker, regarding the importance of its function and its dangerous failure. This component degrades gradually due to the use, and it is also subject to the shock process resulted from the stress of isolating the fault when a short circuit occurs in the system. In this paper, based on failure mechanisms developments, the wear out of the circuit breaker contacts is modeled. The aim of this work is to evaluate its reliability and consequently its residual lifetime. The shock process is based on two random variables such as: the arrival of shocks and their magnitudes. The arrival of shocks was modeled using homogeneous Poisson process (HPP). By simulation, the dates of short-circuit arrivals were generated accompanied with their magnitudes. The same principle of simulation is applied to the amount of cumulative wear out contacts. The objective reached is to find the formulation of the wear function depending on the number of solicitations of the circuit breaker.

Keywords: reliability, short-circuit, models of shocks.

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Authors: A. Chidley, F. Roger, A. Traidia

Abstract:

A method is presented for using thermo-mechanical fatigue analysis as a tool in the design of automotive heat exchangers. Use of infra-red thermography to measure the real thermal history in the heat exchanger reduces the time necessary for calculating design parameters and improves prediction accuracy. Thermal shocks are the primary cause of heat exchanger damage. Thermo-mechanical simulation is based on the mean behavior of the aluminum tubes used in the heat exchanger. An energetic fatigue criterion is used to detect critical zones.

Keywords: Heat exchanger, Fatigue, Thermal shocks. I.

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Authors: Robert Cep, Jana Petru, Lenka Cepova, Tomas Zlamal

Abstract:

Paper is dealing by testing of IN23 ceramic cutting tools at irregular shocks at special fixture - interrupted cut simulator. Standard tests provided at fixture were at regular interrupted cut at 4 slats by 90°. These new tests will be at irregular cut for 1 slat, 2 slats against each other, 2 slats side by side, 3 slats and 4 slats. The main goal is check if irregular shocks have influence at mechanical and thermal shock at tool life of cutting inserts. 

Keywords: Test, Ceramic Cutting Tool, Irregular Interrupted Cut.

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Authors: Robert Cep, Adam Janasek, Lenka Cepova, Josef Prochazka

Abstract:

The paper is dealing by testing of ceramic cutting tools with an interrupted machining. Tests will be provided on fixture – interrupted cut simulator. This simulator has 4 mouldings on circumference and cutting edge is put a shocks during 1 revolution. Criteria of tool wear are destruction of cutting tool or 6000 shocks. Like testing cutting tool material will be products of Sandvik Coromant 6190, 620, 650 and 670. Machined materials was be steels 15 128 (13MoCrV6). Cutting speed (408 m.min-1 and 580 m.min-1) and cutting feed (0,15 mm; 0,2 mm; 0,25 mm and 0,3 mm) were variable parameters and cutting depth was constant parameter.

Keywords: Ceramic Cutting Tools, Interrupted Cut, Machining, Cutting Tests.

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Authors: Jobin Varghese, V. M. Akhil, P. K. Rajendrakumar, K. S. Sivanandan

Abstract:

The major contributor to the human locomotion is the knee flexion and extension. During heel strike, a huge amount of energy is transmitted through the leg towards knee joint, which in fact is damped at heel and leg muscles. During high shocks, although it is damped to a certain extent, the balance force transmits towards knee joint which could damage the knee. Due to the vital function of the knee joint, it should be protected against damage due to additional load acting on it. This work concentrates on the development of spring mass damper system which exactly replicates the stiffness at the heel and muscles and the objective function is optimized to minimize the force acting at the knee joint. Further, the data collected using force plate are put into the model to verify its integrity and are found to be in good agreement.

Keywords: Spring, mass, damper, impact, knee joint.

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Authors: Veronika Solilová, Danuše Nerudová

Abstract:

The paper examines the interaction between the environmental taxation, size of government spending on environmental protection and greenhouse gas emissions and gross inland energy consumption. The aim is to analyze the effects of environmental taxation and government spending on environmental protection as an environmental policy instruments on greenhouse gas emissions and gross inland energy consumption in the EU15. The empirical study is performed using a VAR approach with the application of aggregated data of EU15 over the period 1995 to 2012. The results provide the evidence that the reactions of greenhouse gas emission and gross inland energy consumption to the shocks of environmental policy instruments are strong, mainly in the short term and decay to zero after about 8 years. Further, the reactions of the environmental policy instruments to the shocks of greenhouse gas emission and gross inland energy consumption are also strong in the short term, however with the deferred effects. In addition, the results show that government spending on environmental protection together with gross inland energy consumption has stronger effect on greenhouse gas emissions than environmental taxes in EU15 over the examined period.

Keywords: VAR analysis, greenhouse gas emissions, environmental taxation, government spending.

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Authors: A. Rangan, A. Tansu

Abstract:

This paper generalizes Yeh Lam-s shock model for renewal shock arrivals and random threshold. Several interesting statistical measures are explicitly obtained. A few special cases and an optimal replacement problem are also discussed.

Keywords: shock model, optimal replacement, random threshold, shocks.

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Authors: Yi Liu

Abstract:

In this paper, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is utilized to characterize a prototype biolistic delivery system, the biomedical device based on the contoured-shock-tube design (CST), with the aim at investigating shocks induced flow instabilities within the contoured shock tube. The shock/interface interactions, the growth of perturbation at an interface between two fluids of different density are interrogated. The key features of the gas dynamics and gas-particle interaction are discussed

Keywords: Simulation, Shock wave, Particle, Interface, Supersonic, Richtmyer-Meshkov Instability

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Authors: C. Recommandé, J.C. Blind, A. Clavel, R. Gourichon, V. Le Gal

Abstract:

Simulations are developed in this paper with usual DSGE model equations. The model is based on simplified version of Smets-Wouters equations in use at European Central Bank which implies 10 macro-economic variables: consumption, investment, wages, inflation, capital stock, interest rates, production, capital accumulation, labour and credit rate, and allows take into consideration the banking system. Throughout the simulations, this model will be used to evaluate the impact of rate shocks recounting the actions of the European Central Bank during 2008.

Keywords: CC-LM, Central Bank, DSGE, Liquidity Shock, Non-standard Intervention.

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Authors: M. Okan Tasar

Abstract:

Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures. Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential, regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations, system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks. Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30 to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises. Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed. The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.

Keywords: Banking Systems, Basel III, Financial regulation, Global Financial Crisis.

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Authors: Zhiying Zhang, Chongdu Cho, Qiang Pan, Xilin Lu

Abstract:

In this study, shaking table tests are performed to investigate the behavior of excess pore water pressure in different soft soil-foundations of soil-structure interaction (SSI) system. The variation of the behaviors under cycled minor shock is observed. Moreover, The generation and variation mechanism of excess pore water pressure under earthquake excitation in different soft soilfoundations are analyzed and discussed.

Keywords: Excess pore water pressure, shaking table tests, soft soil foundation, SSI system.

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Authors: Ilona Shiller

Abstract:

This study examines regional convergence in per capita personal income in the US and Canada. We find that the disparity in real per capita income levels across US states (Canadian provinces) has declined, but income levels are not identical. Income levels become more aligned once costs of living are accounted for in relative per capita income series. US states (Canadian provinces) converge at an annual rate of between 1.3% and 2.04% (between 2.15% and 2.37%). A pattern of σ and β-convergence in per capita personal income across regions evident over the entire sample period, is reversed over 1979-1989 (1976-1990) period. The reversal may be due to sectoral or region-specific shocks that have highly persistent effects. The latter explanation might be true for half of the US and most of Canada.

Keywords: regional convergence, regional disparities, per capita income.

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Authors: Goodness C. Aye

Abstract:

This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: Oil price volatility, Food price, Bivariate GARCH-in- mean VAR, Asymmetric.

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Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

Abstract:

The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spillover effects in the context of globalisation and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: Export, GFEVD, Global VAR, International trade, weak exogeneity.

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Authors: Andre A. Keller

Abstract:

The optimal control is one of the possible controllers for a dynamic system, having a linear quadratic regulator and using the Pontryagin-s principle or the dynamic programming method . Stochastic disturbances may affect the coefficients (multiplicative disturbances) or the equations (additive disturbances), provided that the shocks are not too great . Nevertheless, this approach encounters difficulties when uncertainties are very important or when the probability calculus is of no help with very imprecise data. The fuzzy logic contributes to a pragmatic solution of such a problem since it operates on fuzzy numbers. A fuzzy controller acts as an artificial decision maker that operates in a closed-loop system in real time. This contribution seeks to explore the tracking problem and control of dynamic macroeconomic models using a fuzzy learning algorithm. A two inputs - single output (TISO) fuzzy model is applied to the linear fluctuation model of Phillips and to the nonlinear growth model of Goodwin.

Keywords: fuzzy control, macroeconomic model, multiplier - accelerator, nonlinear accelerator, stabilization policy.

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Authors: Stefanos V. Fotopoulos, Harry V. Papapanagos, Fotios M. Siokis

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This paper tries to shed light on the existence of a bank lending channel (BLC) in South Eastern European countries (SEE). Based on a VAR framework we test the responsiveness of credit supply to monetary policy shocks. By compiling a new data set and using the reserve requirement ratio, among others, as the policy instrument we measure the effectiveness of the BLC and the buffering effect of the banks in the SEE countries. The results indicate that loan supply is significantly affected by shifts in monetary policy, when demand factors are controlled. Furthermore, by analyzing the effect of the Greek banks in the region we conclude that Greek banks do buffer the negative effects of monetary policy transmission. By having a significant market share of the SEE-s banking markets we argue that Greek banks influence positively the economic growth of SEE countries.

Keywords: Bank Lending Channel, Monetary Policy Transmission, Policy Buffering, South Eastern Europe

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Authors: Taher Fodeibou, Ziaul Huque, Jenny Galvis

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A parametric study of a mixed-compression supersonic inlet is performed and reported. The effects of inlet Mach Numbers, varying from 4 to 10, and angle of attack, varying from 0 to 10, are reported for a constant inlet dynamic pressure. The paper looked at the variations of mass flow rates through the inlet, gain in entropy through the inlet, and the angles of the external oblique shocks. The mass flow rates were found to decrease monotonically with Mach numbers and increase with angle of attacks. On the other hand the entropy gain through the inlet increased with increasing Mach number and angle of attack. The variation in static pressure was found to be identical from the inlet throat to the exit for Mach number values higher than 6.

Keywords: Angle of attack, entropy gain, mass flow rates, supersonic inlets.

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Pei-Shan Kao

Abstract:

This paper discusses the reaction of investors in the Taiwan stock market to the most probable unknown earnings-related information and the most probable known earnings-related information. As compared with the previous literature regarding the effect of an official announcement of earnings forecast revision, this paper further analyzes investors’ cognitive bias toward the unknown and known earnings-related information, and the role of media during the investors' reactions to the foresaid information shocks. The empirical results show that both the unknown and known earnings-related information provides useful information content for a stock market. In addition, cognitive bias and disposition effect are the behavioral pitfalls that commonly occur in the process of the investors' reactions to the earnings-related information. Finally, media coverage has a remarkable influence upon the investors' trading decisions.

Keywords: Cognitive bias, role of media, disposition effect, earnings-related information, behavioral pitfall.

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Authors: Joanna M. Dulińska, Maria Fabijańska

Abstract:

In the paper a detailed analysis of the dynamic response of a cooling tower shell to mining tremors originated from two main regions of mining activity in Poland (Upper Silesian Coal Basin and Legnica-Glogow Copper District) was presented. The representative time histories registered in the both regions were used as ground motion data in calculations of the dynamic response of the structure. It was proved that the dynamic response of the shell is strongly dependent not only on the level of vibration amplitudes but on the dominant frequency range of the mining shock typical for the mining region as well. Also a vertical component of vibrations occurred to have considerable influence on the total dynamic response of the shell. Finally, it turned out that non-uniformity of kinematic excitation resulting from spatial variety of ground motion plays a significant role in dynamic analysis of large-dimensional shells under mining shocks.

Keywords: Cooling towers, dynamic response, mining tremors, non-uniform kinematic excitation

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Authors: J. Ranjbarn, A. Alibeigloo

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an analytical method for analysis of nano-scale spherical shell subjected to thermo-mechanical shocks based on nonlocal elasticity theory. Thermo-mechanical properties of nano shpere is assumed to be temperature dependent. Governing partial differential equation of motion is solved analytically by using Laplace transform for time domain and power series for spacial domain. The results in Laplace domain is transferred to time domain by employing the fast inverse Laplace transform (FLIT) method. Accuracy of present approach is assessed by comparing the the numerical results with the results of published work in literature. Furtheremore, the effects of non-local parameter and wall thickness on the dynamic characteristics of the nano-sphere are studied.

Keywords: Nano-scale spherical shell, nonlocal elasticity theory, thermomechanical shock.

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Authors: L. B. Jayasinghe, D. P. Thambiratnam, N. Perera, J. H. A. R. Jayasooriya

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Due to increased number of terrorist attacks in recent years, loads induced by explosions need to be incorporated in building designs. For safer performance of a structure, its foundation should have sufficient strength and stability. Therefore, prior to any reconstruction or rehabilitation of a building subjected to blast, it is important to examine adverse effects on the foundation caused by blast induced ground shocks. This paper evaluates the effects of a buried explosion on a pile foundation. It treats the dynamic response of the pile in saturated sand, using explicit dynamic nonlinear finite element software LS-DYNA. The blast induced wave propagation in the soil and the horizontal deformation of pile are presented and the results are discussed. Further, a parametric study is carried out to evaluate the effect of varying the explosive shape on the pile response. This information can be used to evaluate the vulnerability of piled foundations to credible blast events as well as develop guidance for their design.

Keywords: Underground explosion, numerical simulation, pilefoundation, saturated soil.

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Authors: Fawehinmi Olabisi Alaba, Adeniyi O. R.

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Farming households faces lots of disaster which contribute to endemic poverty. Anticipated increases in extreme weather events will exacerbate this. Primary data was administered to farming household using multi-stage random sampling technique. The result of the analysis shows that majority of the respondents (69.9%) are male, have mean household size, years of formal education and age of 5±1.14, 6±3.41, and 51.06±10.43 respectively. The major (48.9%) type of disaster experienced is flooding. Major coping mechanism adopted is sourcing for support from family and friends. Age, education, experience, access to extension agent, and mitigation control method contribute significantly to vulnerability to disaster. The major adaptation method (62.3%) is construction of drainage.

The study revealed that the coping mechanisms employed may become less effective as increasingly fragile livelihood systems struggle to withstand disaster shocks. Thus there is need for training of the farmers on measures to adapt to mitigate the shock from disasters

Keywords: Adaptation, Disasters, Flooding, Vulnerability.

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Authors: A. Abdalla, A. Kaltayev

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The ultimate goal of this article is to develop a robust and accurate numerical method for solving hyperbolic conservation laws in one and two dimensions. A hybrid numerical method, coupling a cheap fourth order total variation diminishing (TVD) scheme [1] for smooth region and a Robust seventh-order weighted non-oscillatory (WENO) scheme [2] near discontinuities, is considered. High order multi-resolution analysis is used to detect the high gradients regions of the numerical solution in order to capture the shocks with the WENO scheme, while the smooth regions are computed with fourth order total variation diminishing (TVD). For time integration, we use the third order TVD Runge-Kutta scheme. The accuracy of the resulting hybrid high order scheme is comparable with these of WENO, but with significant decrease of the CPU cost. Numerical demonstrates that the proposed scheme is comparable to the high order WENO scheme and superior to the fourth order TVD scheme. Our scheme has the added advantage of simplicity and computational efficiency. Numerical tests are presented which show the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

Keywords: WENO scheme, TVD schemes, smoothness indicators, multi-resolution.

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Authors: Abbas Haddadzadeh, Marzieh Sharif Paghaleh

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Within the new world order, the term “crisis" is nowadays familiar to companies. Organizations are experiencing conditions which are surprising, uncertain, often adverse and usually unstable. The companies, who grasp the importance of transformation within the information age, have felt the need to develop modern methods to achieve the ability to thrive despite severe shocks. Through strategically managing human resource and developing appropriate elements of human resource system, companies can be assured for resolving the crisis. In this paper the role of HR system on resolving crisis has been evaluated. To help accomplish this, an insight on previous strategic HRM literature and an introduction to the elements and relationship within HR systems has been presented. It also reviews different attitude around resilience in literature. It continues by reviewing three elements central to developing an organization-s capacity for crisis resolving and it will demonstrate how designing proper elements of HR system can lead the organizations to possess the ability for passing through crisis. Finally it will evaluate an Iranian Insurance organization in case of one of the three central elements (specific cognitive ability) and observe how successful they were on developing an effective HR system to be ready for facing crisis.

Keywords: Crisis, HR System, Resilience, Strategic Human Resource Management.

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Authors: J. Kolář, V. Dvořák

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In this work, we try to find the best setting of Computational Fluid Dynamic solver available for the problems in the field of supersonic internal flows. We used the supersonic air-toair ejector to represent the typical problem in focus. There are multiple oblique shock waves, shear layers, boundary layers and normal shock interacting in the supersonic ejector making this device typical in field of supersonic inner flows. Modeling of shocks in general is demanding on the physical model of fluid, because ordinary conservation equation does not conform to real conditions in the near-shock region as found in many works. From these reasons, we decided to take special care about solver setting in this article by means of experimental approach of color Schlieren pictures and pneumatic measurement. Fast pressure transducers were used to measure unsteady static pressure in regimes with normal shock in mixing chamber. Physical behavior of ejector in several regimes is discussed. Best choice of eddy-viscosity setting is discussed on the theoretical base. The final verification of the k-ω SST is done on the base of comparison between experiment and numerical results.

Keywords: CFD simulations, color Schlieren, k-ω SST, supersonic flows, shock waves.

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Authors: Joanna M. Dulińska, Maria Fabijańska

Abstract:

In the paper the results of calculations of the dynamic response of a multi-storey reinforced concrete building to a strong mining shock originated from the main region of mining activity in Poland (i.e. the Legnica-Glogow Copper District) are presented. The representative time histories of accelerations registered in three directions were used as ground motion data in calculations of the dynamic response of the structure. Two variants of a numerical model were applied: the model including only structural elements of the building and the model including both structural and non-structural elements (i.e. partition walls and ventilation ducts made of brick). It turned out that non-structural elements of multi-storey RC buildings have a small impact of about 10 % on natural frequencies of these structures. It was also proved that the dynamic response of building to mining shock obtained in case of inclusion of all non-structural elements in the numerical model is about 20 % smaller than in case of consideration of structural elements only. The principal stresses obtained in calculations of dynamic response of multi-storey building to strong mining shock are situated on the level of about 30% of values obtained from static analysis (dead load).

Keywords: Dynamic characteristics of buildings, mining shocks, dynamic response of buildings, non-structural elements

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Authors: Gordana Kordić, Petra Palić

Abstract:

The European countries that during the past two decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of corner solution choice’s stabilisation effects. There is an open discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the transition process towards the monetary union membership. The focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them (Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime with another. The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments, these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long term influence that the measures had on the national economy.

Keywords: Currency Board Arrangement, internal devaluation, exchange rate regime, Great recession.

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Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Onyinye S. Ugwuanyi, Kenneth A. Okpala

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This study evaluated the effect of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria. The flow and stock market theories of exchange rate determination was adopted considering macroeconomic determinants such as balance of trade, trade openness, and net international investment. Furthermore, the influence of changes in parallel exchange rate, official exchange rate and real effective exchange rate was modeled on the manufacturing sector output. Vector autoregression techniques and vector error correction mechanism were adopted to explore the macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate fluctuation in Nigeria and to examine the influence of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. The exchange rate showed an unstable and volatile movement in Nigeria. Official exchange rate significantly impacted on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria and shock to previous manufacturing sector output caused 60.76% of the fluctuation in the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. Trade balance, trade openness and net international investments did not significantly determine exchange rate in Nigeria. However, own shock accounted for about 95% of the variation of exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and long-run. Among other macroeconomic variables, net international investment accounted for about 2.85% variation of the real effective exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and in the long-run. Monetary authorities should maintain stability of the exchange rates through proper management so as to encourage local production and government should formulate and implement policies that will develop other sectors of the economy as this will widen the country’s revenue base, reduce our over reliance on oil sector for our foreign exchange earnings and in turn reduce the shocks on our domestic economy.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, exchange rate determinants, manufacturing sector, official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate, real effective exchange rate.

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Authors: Emmanuel Dele Balogun

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This paper analyzes, using descriptive statistics and econometrics data which span the period 1981 to 2014 to gauge the effects of trade policy incentives on economic growth in Nigeria. It argues that the provided incentives penalize economic growth during pre-trade liberalization eras, but stimulated a rapid increase in total factor productivity during the post-liberalization period of 2000 to 2014. The trend analysis shows that Nigeria maintained high tariff walls in economic regulation eras which became low in post liberalization era. The protections were in favor of infant industries, which were mainly appendages of multinationals but against imports of competing food and finished consumer products. The trade openness index confirms the undue exposure of Nigeria’s economy to the vagaries of international market shocks; while banking sector recapitalization and new listing of telecommunications companies deepened the financial markets in post-liberalization era. The structure of economic incentives was biased in favor of construction, trade and services, but against the real sector despite protectionist policies. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) estimates show that the Nigerian economy suffered stagnation in pre-liberalization eras, but experienced rapid growth rates in post-liberalization eras. The regression results relating trade policy incentives to TFP growth rate yielded a significant but negative intercept suggesting that a non-interventionist policy could be detrimental to economic progress, while protective tariff which limits imports of competing products could spur productivity gains in domestic import substitutes beyond factor growth with market liberalization. The main constraint to the effectiveness of trade policy incentives is the failure of benefiting industries to leverage on the domestic factor endowments of the nation. This paper concludes that there is the need to review the current economic transformation strategies urgently with a view to provide policymakers with a better understanding of the most viable options that could make for rapid success.

Keywords: Trade Policies, macroeconomic incentives, total factor productivity and economic growth.

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