{"title":"Dynamic Analyses for Passenger Volume of Domestic Airline and High Speed Rail","authors":"Shih-Ching Lo","volume":61,"journal":"International Journal of Mathematical and Computational Sciences","pagesStart":106,"pagesEnd":111,"ISSN":"1307-6892","URL":"https:\/\/publications.waset.org\/pdf\/7431","abstract":"
Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.<\/p>\r\n","references":"[1] Buckeye, K.R. (1992), Ranking Alternatives Using Fuzzy Numbers,\r\nFuzzy Set and Systems, No. 15, pp. 21-31.\r\n[2] Kanafani, A. and Youssef, W., 1994,\" High-Speed Rail in California\",\r\nUniversity of California Institute of Transportation Studies Review,\r\nVol.no17, pp.2-8.\r\n[3] Lin, J. J., Feng, C. M., and Huang L. C., \"Forecasting the Taiwan High\r\nSpeed Rail System on Local Development,\" Transportation Planning\r\nJournal (Taiwan), Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 391-412 (2005).\r\n[4] Ministry of Transportation and Communications, A Report on the Survey\r\nof High Speed Rail Travel Behavior, Taipei, Taiwan (2007).\r\n[5] Lan, L.W. (1991). Impact of High Speed Railway on the Western\r\nCorridor of Taiwan Area, Road News Quarterly, Vol. 30, No.1, pp. 15-22.\r\n[6] Wang, C.T. and Liu T.C. (1999). The Aviation Market Characteristics of\r\nTaiwan Area and Development Research, Transportation Planning\r\nJournal, Vol.28, No.3, pp. 451-484.\r\n[7] Huang, T.C. (2006). Website of Land\/Air Transportation Transition\r\nAnalysis in Response to the Commencement of Revenue Operation of\r\nHigh Speed Railway, Transportation Comments, Chinese Institute of\r\nTransportation.\r\n[8] Karlafftis, M.G. and Sinha, K.C. (1997). Modeling Approach Transit\r\nRolling-Stock Deterioration Prediction, Journal of Transportation\r\nEngineering, 123, 223-228.\r\n[9] Lu, C.L. (1997). Study on Patronage Transfer Inclination Model of New\r\nTravel Modes, Proceedings of the National Science Council (Part C:\r\nHumanities and Social Sciences), Vol.8, No.2, pp. 242-259.\r\n[10] Tuan, L.H. and Wang, Y.J. (1999). Integrate the Travel Mode Selection\r\nModels of Revealed Preference and Stated Preference Data,\r\nTransportation Planning Journal, Vol.28, No.1, pp. 25-60.\r\n[11] Wen, J.H., Lan, L.W. and Hsu, F.S. (2001). Research of Different Traffic\r\nInformation Resources with Impact on the Route Selection Behaviors of\r\nIntercity Commuters, Proceedings of the 6th ROC Transportation\r\nNetwork Seminar, pp. 1-9\u00b4\u255d\u00eeChinese Institute of Transportation.\r\n[12] Hung-Yen Chou, Chiang Fu (2007). A Study of Domestic Air Passenger-\r\nPreference for High-Speed Rail Mode in Taiwan, The Journal of Global\r\nBusiness Management, Vol.3, Num.2, pp.147-155.\r\n[13] Oliver Feng-Yeu Shyr* and Meng-Fu Hung, INTERMODAL\r\nCOMPETITION WITH HIGH SPEED RAIL- A GAME THEORY\r\nAPPROACH, Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Vol. 18, No. 1,\r\npp. 32-40 (2010)\r\n[14] A. J. Lotka, and A. James, Elements of Mathematical Biology, Dover,\r\npublications New York (1956).\r\n[15] A. J. Lotka, Elements of Physical Biology, Williams and Wilkins,\r\nBaltimore (1925).\r\n[16] V. Volterra, Mem. R. Acadd. Lincei Series IV 2, 31, (1926).\r\n[17] Bass, F. M. 1969. A new product growth for model consumer durables.\r\nManagement Sci. 15(5) 215- 227.)\r\n[18] F. M. Bass, Comments on \" A New Product Growth for Model Consumer\r\nDurables\" Manag. Sci., 50, 1833-1840 (2004)\r\n[19] C. Fisher and R. H. Pry, Technological Forecasting and Social\r\nChanges, 75-88 (1971).\r\n[20] A. Norton and F. M. Bass, Manage. Sci., 33, 1069-1086 (1987).\r\n[21] V. Mahajan, E. Muller and F. M. Bass, J. Marketing, 54, 1-26 (1990).\r\n[22] N. Meade and T. Islam, Int. J. Forecasting, 22, 519-545 (2006).\r\n[23] P. Parker, and H. Gatignon, Int. J. Res. Marketing, 11, 17-39 (1994).\r\n[24] C. W. I. Piotorius and J. M. Utterback, Res. Policy, 26, 67-84 (1997).\r\n[25] J. R. Williams, Strategic Manage. J., 4, 55-65 (1983).","publisher":"World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology","index":"Open Science Index 61, 2012"}