Search results for: Risk Priority Number.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4683

Search results for: Risk Priority Number.

4353 The Number of Rational Points on Elliptic Curves and Circles over Finite Fields

Authors: Betül Gezer, Ahmet Tekcan, Osman Bizim

Abstract:

In elliptic curve theory, number of rational points on elliptic curves and determination of these points is a fairly important problem. Let p be a prime and Fp be a finite field and k ∈ Fp. It is well known that which points the curve y2 = x3 + kx has and the number of rational points of on Fp. Consider the circle family x2 + y2 = r2. It can be interesting to determine common points of these two curve families and to find the number of these common points. In this work we study this problem.

Keywords: Elliptic curves over finite fields, rational points on elliptic curves and circles.

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4352 The Risk and Value Engineering Structures and their Integration with Industrial Projects Management (A Case Study on I. K.Corporation)

Authors: Lida Haghnegahdar, Ezzatollah Asgharizadeh

Abstract:

Value engineering is an efficacious contraption for administrators to make up their minds. Value perusals proffer the gaffers a suitable instrument to decrease the expenditures of the life span, quality amelioration, structural improvement, curtailment of the construction schedule, longevity prolongation or a merging of the aforementioned cases. Subjecting organizers to pressures on one hand and their accountability towards their pertinent fields together with inherent risks and ambiguities of other options on the other hand set some comptrollers in a dilemma utilization of risk management and the value engineering in projects manipulation with regard to complexities of implementing projects can be wielded as a contraption to identify and efface each item which wreaks unnecessary expenses and time squandering sans inflicting any damages upon the essential project applications. Of course It should be noted that implementation of risk management and value engineering with regard to the betterment of efficiency and functions may lead to the project implementation timing elongation. Here time revamping does not refer to time diminishing in the whole cases. his article deals with risk and value engineering conceptualizations at first. The germane reverberations effectuated due to its execution in Iran Khodro Corporation are regarded together with the joint features and amalgamation of the aforesaid entia; hence the proposed blueprint is submitted to be taken advantage of in engineering and industrial projects including Iran Khodro Corporation.

Keywords: Management, risk engineering, value engineering, project manipulation, Iran Khodro.

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4351 Heat Transfer to Laminar Flow over a Double Backward-Facing Step

Authors: Hussein Togun, Tuqa Abdulrazzaq, S. N. Kazi, A. Badarudin, M. K. A. Ariffin

Abstract:

Heat transfer and laminar air flow over a double backward-facing step numerically studied in this paper. The simulations was performed by using ANSYS ICEM for meshing process and using ANSYS fluent 14 (CFD) for solving. The k-ɛ standard model adopted with Reynolds number varied between 98.5 to 512 and three step height at constant heat flux (q=2000 W/m2). The top of wall and bottom of upstream are insulated with bottom of downstream is heated. The results show increase in Nusselt number with increases of Reynolds number for all cases and the maximum of Nusselt number happens at the first step in compared to the second step. Due to increase of cross section area of downstream to generate sudden expansion then Nusselt number decrease but the profile of Nusselt number keep same trend for all cases where increase after the first and second steps. Recirculation region after the first and second steps are denoted by contour of streamline velocity. The higher augmentation of heat transfer rate observed for case 1 at Reynolds number of 512 and heat flux q=2000 W/m2.

Keywords: Laminar flow, Double backward, Separation flow, Recirculation flow.

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4350 Operational Risk – Scenario Analysis

Authors: Milan Rippel, Petr Teply

Abstract:

This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Loss Distribution Approach and scenario analysis method are considered. Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution is evaluated. Two main questions are assessed – What is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution? and What is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution? The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement of the impact of extreme events on banking operations.

Keywords: operational risk, scenario analysis, economic capital, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, stress testing

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4349 The More Organized Proof For Acyclic Coloring Of Graphs With Δ = 5 with 8 Colors

Authors: Ahmad Salehi

Abstract:

An acyclic coloring of a graph G is a coloring of its vertices such that:(i) no two neighbors in G are assigned the same color and (ii) no bicolored cycle can exist in G. The acyclic chromatic number of G is the least number of colors necessary to acyclically color G. Recently it has been proved that any graph of maximum degree 5 has an acyclic chromatic number at most 8. In this paper we present another proof for this result.

Keywords: Acyclic Coloring, Vertex coloring.

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4348 Designing an Optimal Safe Layout for a Fuel Storage Tanks Farm: Case Study of Jaipur Oil Depot

Authors: Moosa Haji Abbasi, Emad Benhelal, Arshad Ahmad

Abstract:

Storage tank farms are essential industrial facilities to accumulate oil, petrochemicals and gaseous products. Since tank farms contain huge mass of fuel and hazardous materials, they are always targets of serious accidents such as fire, explosion, spill and toxic release which may cause severe impacts on human health, environmental and properties.

Although having a safe layout is not able to prevent initiating accidents, however it effectively controls and reduces the adverse impact of such accidents.

The aim of this paper is to determine the optimal layout for a storage tank contains different type of hydrocarbon fuels. A quantitative risk assessment is carried out on a selected tank farm in Jaipur, India, with particular attention given to both the consequence modeling and the overall risk assessment using PHAST Software. Various designs of tank layouts are examined taking into consideration several issues of plant operations and maintenance. In all stages of the work, standard guidelines specified by the industry are considered and recommendations are substantiated with simulation results and risk quantification.

Keywords: Tank farm, safe distance, safe layout, risk assessment, PHAST.

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4347 Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer Structures of Oscillating Pipe Flows

Authors: Yan Su, Jane H. Davidson, F. A. Kulacki

Abstract:

The RANS method with Saffman-s turbulence model was employed to solve the time-dependent turbulent Navier-Stokes and energy equations for oscillating pipe flows. The method of partial sums of the Fourier series is used to analyze the harmonic velocity and temperature results. The complete structures of the oscillating pipe flows and the averaged Nusselt numbers on the tube wall are provided by numerical simulation over wide ranges of ReA and ReR. Present numerical code is validated by comparing the laminar flow results to analytic solutions and turbulence flow results to published experimental data at lower and higher Reynolds numbers respectively. The effects of ReA and ReR on the velocity, temperature and Nusselt number distributions have been di scussed. The enhancement of the heat transfer due to oscillating flows has also been presented. By the way of analyzing the overall Nusselt number over wide ranges of the Reynolds number Re and Keulegan- Carpenter number KC, the optimal ratio of the tube diameter over the oscillation amplitude is obtained based on the existence of a nearly constant optimal KC number. The potential application of the present results in sea water cooling has also been discussed.

Keywords: Keulegan-Carpenter number, Nusselt number, Oscillating pipe flows, Reynolds number

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4346 An Algorithm for an Optimal Staffing Problem in Open Shop Environment

Authors: Daniela I. Borissova, Ivan C. Mustakerov

Abstract:

The paper addresses a problem of optimal staffing in open shop environment. The problem is to determine the optimal number of operators serving a given number of machines to fulfill the number of independent operations while minimizing staff idle. Using a Gantt chart presentation of the problem it is modeled as twodimensional cutting stock problem. A mixed-integer programming model is used to get minimal job processing time (makespan) for fixed number of machines' operators. An algorithm for optimal openshop staffing is developed based on iterative solving of the formulated optimization task. The execution of the developed algorithm provides optimal number of machines' operators in the sense of minimum staff idle and optimal makespan for that number of operators. The proposed algorithm is tested numerically for a real life staffing problem. The testing results show the practical applicability for similar open shop staffing problems.

Keywords: Integer programming, open shop problem, optimal staffing.

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4345 Stability Bound of Ruin Probability in a Reduced Two-Dimensional Risk Model

Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.

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4344 Hybrid Temporal Correlation Based on Gaussian Mixture Model Framework for View Synthesis

Authors: Deng Zengming, Wang Mingjiang

Abstract:

As 3D video is explored as a hot research topic in the last few decades, free-viewpoint TV (FTV) is no doubt a promising field for its better visual experience and incomparable interactivity. View synthesis is obviously a crucial technology for FTV; it enables to render images in unlimited numbers of virtual viewpoints with the information from limited numbers of reference view. In this paper, a novel hybrid synthesis framework is proposed and blending priority is explored. In contrast to the commonly used View Synthesis Reference Software (VSRS), the presented synthesis process is driven in consideration of the temporal correlation of image sequences. The temporal correlations will be exploited to produce fine synthesis results even near the foreground boundaries. As for the blending priority, this scheme proposed that one of the two reference views is selected to be the main reference view based on the distance between the reference views and virtual view, another view is chosen as the auxiliary viewpoint, just assist to fill the hole pixel with the help of background information. Significant improvement of the proposed approach over the state-of –the-art pixel-based virtual view synthesis method is presented, the results of the experiments show that subjective gains can be observed, and objective PSNR average gains range from 0.5 to 1.3 dB, while SSIM average gains range from 0.01 to 0.05.

Keywords: View synthesis, Gaussian mixture model, hybrid framework, fusion method.

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4343 CFD Investigation of Turbulent Mixed Convection Heat Transfer in a Closed Lid-Driven Cavity

Authors: A. Khaleel, S. Gao

Abstract:

Both steady and unsteady turbulent mixed convection heat transfer in a 3D lid-driven enclosure, which has constant heat flux on the middle of bottom wall and with isothermal moving sidewalls, is reported in this paper for working fluid with Prandtl number Pr = 0.71. The other walls are adiabatic and stationary. The dimensionless parameters used in this research are Reynolds number, Re = 5000, 10000 and 15000, and Richardson number, Ri = 1 and 10. The simulations have been done by using different turbulent methods such as RANS, URANS, and LES. The effects of using different k-ε models such as standard, RNG and Realizable k-ε model are investigated. Interesting behaviours of the thermal and flow fields with changing the Re or Ri numbers are observed. Isotherm and turbulent kinetic energy distributions and variation of local Nusselt number at the hot bottom wall are studied as well. The local Nusselt number is found increasing with increasing either Re or Ri number. In addition, the turbulent kinetic energy is discernibly affected by increasing Re number. Moreover, the LES results have shown good ability of this method in predicting more detailed flow structures in the cavity.

Keywords: Mixed convection, Lid-driven cavity, Turbulent flow, RANS model, URANS model, Large eddy simulation.

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4342 The Links between Cardiovascular Risk and Psychological Wellbeing in Elderly

Authors: Laura Sapranaviciute-Zabazlajeva, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Dalia Luksiene, Dalia Virviciute

Abstract:

The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.

Keywords: Psychological wellbeing, cardiovascular disease, elderly.

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4341 Analysis of Supply Chain Risk Management Strategies: Case Study of Supply Chain Disruptions

Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

Abstract:

Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: Supply chain disruptions, supply chain management, supply chain resilience, just-in-time production, lean manufacturing.

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4340 Effects of Roughness Elements on Heat Transfer during Natural Convection

Authors: M. Yousaf, S. Usman

Abstract:

The present study focused on the investigation of the effects of roughness elements on heat transfer during natural convection in a rectangular cavity using numerical technique. Roughness elements were introduced on the bottom hot wall with a normalized amplitude (A*/H) of 0.1. Thermal and hydrodynamic behaviors were studied using computational method based on Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). Numerical studies were performed for a laminar flow in the range of Rayleigh number (Ra) from 103 to 106 for a rectangular cavity of aspect ratio (L/H) 2.0 with a fluid of Prandtl number (Pr) 1.0. The presence of the sinusoidal roughness elements caused a minimum to maximum decrease in the heat transfer as 7% to 17% respectively compared to smooth enclosure. The results are presented for mean Nusselt number (Nu), isotherms and streamlines.

Keywords: Natural convection, Rayleigh number, surface roughness, Nusselt number, Lattice Boltzmann Method.

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4339 A Robust Redundant Residue Representation in Residue Number System with Moduli Set(rn-2,rn-1,rn)

Authors: Hossein Khademolhosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh

Abstract:

The residue number system (RNS), due to its properties, is used in applications in which high performance computation is needed. The carry free nature, which makes the arithmetic, carry bounded as well as the paralleling facility is the reason of its capability of high speed rendering. Since carry is not propagated between the moduli in this system, the performance is only restricted by the speed of the operations in each modulus. In this paper a novel method of number representation by use of redundancy is suggested in which {rn- 2,rn-1,rn} is the reference moduli set where r=2k+1 and k =1, 2,3,.. This method achieves fast computations and conversions and makes the circuits of them much simpler.

Keywords: Binary to RNS converter, Carry save adder, Computer arithmetic, Residue number system.

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4338 Assessment-Assisted and Relationship-Based Financial Advising: Using an Empirical Assessment to Understand Personal Investor Risk Tolerance in Professional Advising Relationships

Authors: Jerry Szatko, Edan L. Jorgensen, Stacia Jorgensen

Abstract:

A crucial component to the success of any financial advising relationship is for the financial professional to understand the perceptions, preferences and thought-processes carried by the financial clients they serve. Armed with this information, financial professionals are more quickly able to understand how they can tailor their approach to best match the individual preferences and needs of each personal investor. Our research explores the use of a quantitative assessment tool in the financial services industry to assist in the identification of the personal investor’s consumer behaviors, especially in terms of financial risk tolerance, as it relates to their financial decision making. Through this process, the Unitifi Consumer Insight Tool (UCIT) was created and refined to capture and categorize personal investor financial behavioral categories and the financial personality tendencies of individuals prior to the initiation of a financial advisement relationship. This paper discusses the use of this tool to place individuals in one of four behavior-based financial risk tolerance categories. Our discoveries and research were aided through administration of a web-based survey to a group of over 1,000 individuals. Our findings indicate that it is possible to use a quantitative assessment tool to assist in predicting the behavioral tendencies of personal consumers when faced with consumer financial risk and decisions.

Keywords: Behavior based advising, behavioral finance, financial advising, financial advisor tools, financial risk tolerance.

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4337 Reducing the Number of Constraints in Non Safe Petri Net

Authors: M. Zareiee, A. Dideban

Abstract:

This paper addresses the problem of forbidden states in non safe Petri Nets. In the system, for preventing it from entering the forbidden states, some linear constraints can be assigned to them. Then these constraints can be enforced on the system using control places. But when the number of constraints in the system is large, a large number of control places must be added to the model of system. This concept complicates the model of system. There are some methods for reducing the number of constraints in safe Petri Nets. But there is no a systematic method for non safe Petri Nets. In this paper we propose a method for reducing the number of constraints in non safe Petri Nets which is based on solving an integer linear programming problem.

Keywords: discrete event system, Supervisory control, Petri Net, Constraint

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4336 Hydrogeological Risk and Mining Tunnels: the Fontane-Rodoretto Mine Turin (Italy)

Authors: Paola Gattinoni, Laura Scesi, Elena Cerino Adbin, Daniele Cremonesi

Abstract:

The interaction of tunneling or mining with groundwater has become a very relevant problem not only due to the need to guarantee the safety of workers and to assure the efficiency of the tunnel drainage systems, but also to safeguard water resources from impoverishment and pollution risk. Therefore it is very important to forecast the drainage processes (i.e., the evaluation of drained discharge and drawdown caused by the excavation). The aim of this study was to know better the system and to quantify the flow drained from the Fontane mines, located in Val Germanasca (Turin, Italy). This allowed to understand the hydrogeological local changes in time. The work has therefore been structured as follows: the reconstruction of the conceptual model with the geological, hydrogeological and geological-structural study; the calculation of the tunnel inflows (through the use of structural methods) and the comparison with the measured flow rates; the water balance at the basin scale. In this way it was possible to understand what are the relationships between rainfall, groundwater level variations and the effect of the presence of tunnels as a means of draining water. Subsequently, it the effects produced by the excavation of the mining tunnels was quantified, through numerical modeling. In particular, the modeling made it possible to observe the drawdown variation as a function of number, excavation depth and different mines linings.

Keywords: Groundwater, Italy, numerical model, tunneling.

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4335 A Novel Slip Correction Factor for Spherical Aerosol Particles

Authors: Abouzar Moshfegh, Mehrzad Shams, Goodarz Ahmadi, Reza Ebrahimi

Abstract:

A 3D simulation study for an incompressible slip flow around a spherical aerosol particle was performed. The full Navier-Stokes equations were solved and the velocity jump at the gas-particle interface was treated numerically by imposition of the slip boundary condition. Analytical solution to the Stokesian slip flow past a spherical particle was used as a benchmark for code verification, and excellent agreement was achieved. The Simulation results showed that in addition to the Knudsen number, the Reynolds number affects the slip correction factor. Thus, the Cunningham-based slip corrections must be augmented by the inclusion of the effect of Reynolds number for application to Lagrangian tracking of fine particles. A new expression for the slip correction factor as a function of both Knudsen number and Reynolds number was developed.

Keywords: CFD, Cunningham correction, Slip correction factor, Spherical aerosol.

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4334 Impovement of a Label Extraction Method for a Risk Search System

Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Ryohei Orihara

Abstract:

This paper proposes an improvement method of classification efficiency in a classification model. The model is used in a risk search system and extracts specific labels from articles posted at bulletin board sites. The system can analyze the important discussions composed of the articles. The improvement method introduces ensemble learning methods that use multiple classification models. Also, it introduces expressions related to the specific labels into generation of word vectors. The paper applies the improvement method to articles collected from three bulletin board sites selected by users and verifies the effectiveness of the improvement method.

Keywords: Text mining, Risk search system, Corporate reputation, Bulletin board site, Ensemble learning

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4333 On Bounding Jayanti's Distributed Mutual Exclusion Algorithm

Authors: Awadhesh Kumar Singh

Abstract:

Jayanti-s algorithm is one of the best known abortable mutual exclusion algorithms. This work is an attempt to overcome an already known limitation of the algorithm while preserving its all important properties and elegance. The limitation is that the token number used to assign process identification number to new incoming processes is unbounded. We have used a suitably adapted alternative data structure, in order to completely eliminate the use of token number, in the algorithm.

Keywords: Abortable, deterministic, local spin, mutual exclusion.

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4332 A Novel Multiple Valued Logic OHRNS Modulo rn Adder Circuit

Authors: Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Somayyeh Jafarali Jassbi, Keivan Navi

Abstract:

Residue Number System (RNS) is a modular representation and is proved to be an instrumental tool in many digital signal processing (DSP) applications which require high-speed computations. RNS is an integer and non weighted number system; it can support parallel, carry-free, high-speed and low power arithmetic. A very interesting correspondence exists between the concepts of Multiple Valued Logic (MVL) and Residue Number Arithmetic. If the number of levels used to represent MVL signals is chosen to be consistent with the moduli which create the finite rings in the RNS, MVL becomes a very natural representation for the RNS. There are two concerns related to the application of this Number System: reaching the most possible speed and the largest dynamic range. There is a conflict when one wants to resolve both these problem. That is augmenting the dynamic range results in reducing the speed in the same time. For achieving the most performance a method is considere named “One-Hot Residue Number System" in this implementation the propagation is only equal to one transistor delay. The problem with this method is the huge increase in the number of transistors they are increased in order m2 . In real application this is practically impossible. In this paper combining the Multiple Valued Logic and One-Hot Residue Number System we represent a new method to resolve both of these two problems. In this paper we represent a novel design of an OHRNS-based adder circuit. This circuit is useable for Multiple Valued Logic moduli, in comparison to other RNS design; this circuit has considerably improved the number of transistors and power consumption.

Keywords: Computer Arithmetic, Residue Number System, Multiple Valued Logic, One-Hot, VLSI.

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4331 Status of Thyroid Function and Iron Overload in Adolescents and Young Adults with Beta- Thalassemia Major Treated with Deferoxamine in Jordan

Authors: Fawzi Irshaid, Kamal Mansi

Abstract:

Thyroid dysfunction is one of the most frequently reported complications of chronic blood transfusion therapy in patients with beta-thalassemia major (BTM). However, the occurrence of thyroid dysfunction and its possible association with iron overload in BTM patients is still under debate. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the status of thyroid functions and iron overload in adolescent and young adult patients with BTM in Jordan population. Thirty six BTM patients aged 12-28 years and matched controls were included in this study. All patients have been receiving frequent blood transfusion to maintain pretransfusion hemoglobin concentration above 10 g dl-1 and deferoxamine at a dose of 45 mg kg-1 day-1 (8 h, 5-7 days/week) by subcutaneous infusion. Blood samples were drawn from patients and controls. The status of thyroid functions and iron overload was evaluated by measurements of serum free thyroxine (FT4), triiodothyronine (FT3), thyrotropin (TSH) and serum ferritin level. A number of some hematological and biochemical parameters were also measured. It was found that hematocrit, serum ferritin, hemoglobin, FT3 and zinc, copper mean values were significantly higher in the patients than in the controls (P< 0.05). On other hand, leukocyte, FT4 and TSH mean values were similar to that of the controls. In addition, our data also indicated that all of the above examined parameters were not significantly affected by the patient-s age and gender. Deferoxamine approach for removing excess iron from our BTM patient did not normalize the values of serum ferritin, copper and zinc, suggesting poor compliance with deferoxamine chelation therapy. Thus, we recommend the use of a combination of deferoxamine and deferiprone to reduce the risk of excess of iron in our patients. Furthermore, thyroid dysfunction appears to be a rare complication, because our patients showed normal mean levels for serum TSH and FT4. However, high mean levels of serum ferritin, zinc, copper might be seen as potential risk factors for initiation and development of thyroid dysfunctions and other diseases. Therefore, further studies must be carried out at yearly intervals with large sample number, to detect subclinical thyroid dysfunction cases.

Keywords: beta-thalassemia major, deferoxamine, iron overload, triiodothyronine, zinc.

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4330 Future Outlook and Current Situation for Security of Gas Supply in Eastern Baltic Region

Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

Abstract:

Growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, cross-border bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012 almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. Under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.

Keywords: Security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package.

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4329 Numerical Evaluation of Nusselt Number on the Hot Wall in Square Enclosure Filled with Nanofluid

Authors: A. Ghafouri, A. Falavand Jozaei, M. Salari

Abstract:

In this paper, effects of using Alumina-water nanofluid on the rate of heat transfer have been investigated numerically. Physical model is a square enclosure with insulated top and bottom horizontal walls, while the vertical walls are kept at different constant temperatures. Two appropriate models are used to evaluate the viscosity and thermal conductivity of nanofluid. The governing stream-vorticity equations are solved using a second order central finite difference scheme, coupled to the conservation of mass and energy. The study has been carried out for the Richardson number 0.1 to 10 and the solid volume fraction 0 to 0.04. Results are presented by isotherms lines, average Nusselt number and normalized Nusselt number in different range of φ and Ri for forced, combined and natural convection dominated regime. It is found that higher heat transfer rate is predicted when the effects of nanoparticle is taken into account.

Keywords: Nanofluid, Heat Transfer Enhancement, Square Enclosure, Nusselt number.

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4328 Rear Separation in a Rotating Fluid at Moderate Taylor Numbers

Authors: S. Damodaran, T. V. S.Sekhar

Abstract:

The motion of a sphere moving along the axis of a rotating viscous fluid is studied at high Reynolds numbers and moderate values of Taylor number. The Higher Order Compact Scheme is used to solve the governing Navier-Stokes equations. The equations are written in the form of Stream function, Vorticity function and angular velocity which are highly non-linear, coupled and elliptic partial differential equations. The flow is governed by two parameters Reynolds number (Re) and Taylor number (T). For very low values of Re and T, the results agree with the available experimental and theoretical results in the literature. The results are obtained at higher values of Re and moderate values of T and compared with the experimental results. The results are fourth order accurate.

Keywords: Navier_Stokes equations, Taylor number, Reynolds number, Higher order compact scheme, Rotating Fluid.

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4327 Prioritization Method in the Fuzzy Analytic Network Process by Fuzzy Preferences Programming Method

Authors: Tarifa S. Almulhim, Ludmil Mikhailov, Dong-Ling Xu

Abstract:

In this paper, a method for deriving a group priority vector in the Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) is proposed. By introducing importance weights of multiple decision makers (DMs) based on their experiences, the Fuzzy Preferences Programming Method (FPP) is extended to a fuzzy group prioritization problem in the FANP. Additionally, fuzzy pair-wise comparison judgments are presented rather than exact numerical assessments in order to model the uncertainty and imprecision in the DMs- judgments and then transform the fuzzy group prioritization problem into a fuzzy non-linear programming optimization problem which maximize the group satisfaction. Unlike the known fuzzy prioritization techniques, the new method proposed in this paper can easily derive crisp weights from incomplete and inconsistency fuzzy set of comparison judgments and does not require additional aggregation producers. Detailed numerical examples are used to illustrate the implement of our approach and compare with the latest fuzzy prioritization method.

Keywords: Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP), Fuzzy Non-linear Programming, Fuzzy Preferences Programming Method (FPP), Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), Triangular Fuzzy Number.

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4326 Investigation of Building Loads Effect on the Stability of Slope

Authors: Hadj Brahim Mounia, Belhamel Farid, Souici Messoud

Abstract:

In big cities, construction on sloping land (landslide) is becoming increasingly prevalent due to the unavailability of flat lands. This has created a major challenge for structural engineers with regard to structure design, due to the difficulties encountered during the implementation of projects, both for the structure and the soil. This paper analyses the effect of the number of floors of a building, founded on isolated footing on the stability of the slope using the computer code finite element PLAXIS 2D v. 8.2. The isolated footings of a building in this case were anchored in soil so that the levels of successive isolated footing realize a maximum slope of base of three for two heights, which connects the edges of the nearest footings, according to the Algerian building code DTR-BC 2.331: Shallow foundations. The results show that the embedment of the foundation into the soil reduces the value of the safety factor due to the change of the stress state of the soil by these foundations. The number of floors a building has also influences the safety factor. It has been noticed from this case of study that there is no risk of collapse of slopes for an inclination between 5° and 8°. In the case of slope inclination greater than 10° it has been noticed that the urbanization is prohibited.

Keywords: Building, collapse, factor of safety, isolated footing, PLAXIS 2D, slope.

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4325 An Intelligent Fuzzy-Neural Diagnostic System for Osteoporosis Risk Assessment

Authors: Chin-Ming Hong, Chin-Teng Lin, Chao-Yen Huang, Yi-Ming Lin

Abstract:

In this article, we propose an Intelligent Medical Diagnostic System (IMDS) accessible through common web-based interface, to on-line perform initial screening for osteoporosis. The fundamental approaches which construct the proposed system are mainly based on the fuzzy-neural theory, which can exhibit superiority over other conventional technologies in many fields. In diagnosis process, users simply answer a series of directed questions to the system, and then they will immediately receive a list of results which represents the risk degrees of osteoporosis. According to clinical testing results, it is shown that the proposed system can provide the general public or even health care providers with a convenient, reliable, inexpensive approach to osteoporosis risk assessment.

Keywords: BMD, osteoporosis, IMDS, fuzzy-neural theory, web interface.

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4324 Risk of Occupational Exposure to Cytotoxic Drugs: The Role of Handling Procedures of Hospital Workers

Authors: J. Silva, P. Arezes, R. Schierl, N. Costa

Abstract:

In order to study environmental contamination by cytostatic drugs in Portugal hospitals, sampling campaigns were conducted in three hospitals in 2015 (112 samples). Platinum containing drugs and fluorouracil were chosen because both were administered in high amounts. The detection limit was 0.01 pg/cm² for platinum and 0.1 pg/cm² for fluorouracil. The results show that spills occur mainly on the patient`s chair, while the most referenced occurrence is due to an inadequately closed wrapper. Day hospitals facilities were detected as having the largest number of contaminated samples and with higher levels of contamination.

Keywords: Antineoplastic, drugs, exposure, surface.

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