Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 30127
Prioritization Assessment of Housing Development Risk Factors: A Fuzzy Hierarchical Process-Based Approach

Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

Abstract:

The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: Risk identification, risk assessment, analytical hierarchical process, multi-criteria decision.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 36

References:


[1] Al-Bahar, J. F. and Crandell, K.C. (1991). Systematic Risk Management Approach for construction projects. Journal of Construction Economics and Management vol. 116(3) 533-546.
[2] APM (2005). Project Risk Analysis and Management (PRAM) Guide. Hobbs the Printers Ltd., Hampshire, UK
[3] Baba, Y. G., Muhammad A, Ibrahim A.D., Ibrahim Y.M., Adogbo K.J. (2017). Assessment of Risks in Housing Development Projects in Nigeria: A Fuzzy AHP-based approach. The Quantity Surveyor Journal of NIQS, vol. 64 Pp. 3-11
[4] Chatterjee, K., Zavadskas, E. K., Tamošaitiene, J., Adhikary, K., & Kar, S. (2018). A hybrid MCDM technique for risk management in construction projects. Symmetry, 10(2). http://doi.org/ 10.3390/sym10020046
[5] Choi, H., & Mahadevan, S. (2008). Construction Project Risk Assessment Using Existing Database and Project-Specific Information. Journal of Construction Economics and Management vol. 134, 894–904.
[6] Deng, X., Low, S. P., Zhao, X., & Chang, T. (2018). Identifying micro variables contributing to political risks in international construction projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 25(3). http://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-02-2017-0042
[7] Dikmen, I., Birgonul, N.T. and Han, S. (2007). Using Fuzzy Risk Assessment to rate cost overrun risk in international construction projects.International Journal of Project Management vol. 25 (5), pp. 494 - 505
[8] El-Sayegh, S. M. (2009). Multi-criteria decision support model for selecting the appropriate construction management at risk firm. Construction Management and Economics, 27(4), 385–398. http://doi.org/10.1080/01446190902759009
[9] El-Sayegh, S. M. (2008). Risk assessment and allocation in the UAE construction industry .International Journal of Project Management, volume 26 431–438
[10] Fayek, A.R. and Oduba, A. (2005). Predicting industrial construction labour productivity using fuzzy expert system. Journal of Engineering Management, 131(8) 938-941
[11] Hastak, M. and Shaked, A. (2000). ICRAM-I Model for international construction risk assessment. ASCE Journal of Construction Economics and Management, vol. 16(1) PP59-69
[12] Hillson, D. (2005).When is a risk not a risk? International Project ManagementAssociation (IPMA) Project Management practice. 1 PP6-7.
[13] Hillson, D. and Murray-Webster, P. (2007). Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude. McGower Publishng, NY.
[14] Hsieh, T.Y., Lu, S.T. and Tzeng, G.H. (2004). Fuzzy MCDM approach for planning and design tenders selection in public office building. International Journal of Project Management, 22(7) 573-584
[15] Jeljeli, M. N. and Rusell, J. S. (1995).Coping with uncertainty in environmental construction: Decision-analysis approach. ASCE Journal of Construction and Engineering Management Vol. 121(4) 370-379.
[16] Kumar, L., Jindal, A., & Velaga, N. R. (2018). Financial risk assessment and modelling of PPP based Indian highway infrastructure projects. Transport Policy, 62. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.03.010
[17] Laryea, S. (2008). An Experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization. International Journal of Project Management vol. 29(2) pp. 220-231
[18] Laryea, S., & Hughes, W. (2008). How contractors price risk in bids: Theory and practice. Construction Management and Economics, 26(9), 911–924. http://doi.org/10.1080/01446190802317718
[19] Li, J. and Zou, P. X. W. (2010). Risk Identification and assessment in PPP infrastructure projects using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and life-cycle methodology. International Journal of Project Management vol. 25(6) 601-614.
[20] Liu, M. and Ling, Y. (2005). Modelling a contractor’s makeup estimation. ASCE Journal Construction Economics and Management 131 (4), 391-9.
[21] Liu, W., Zhao, T., Zhou, W., & Tang, J. (2018). Safety risk factors of metro tunnel construction in China: An integrated study with EFA and SEM. Safety Science, 105. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2018.01.009
[22] Li, C. Z., Shen, G. Q., Xue, F., Luo, L., Xu, X., & Sommer, L. (2017). Schedule risk modeling in prefabrication housing production. Journal of Cleaner Production, 153. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.028
[23] Mehdizadeh, R., Breysse, D., Taillandier, F., & Niandou, H. (2013). Dynamic and multi perspective risk management in construction with a special view to temporary structures. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 30(2). http://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2012.733377
[24] Mustafa,M. A. and Al-Bahar J. F. (1991). Project Assessment using AHP. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management Vol.38 (1) pp.46-52.
[25] Nieto-Morete, A. and Ruz-vila, F. (2011).A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment. International Journal of Project Management vol. 29(2) pp. 220-231.
[26] PMI (2004). A Guide to the Project Management Bodies of Knowledge (PMBok Guide).Third edi. PMI Publishing, Newton Square, PA, USA.
[27] Raz, T. and Hillson, D. (2005). A comparative Review of Risk Management Standards. Risk Management: An International JournalVol.8(1) PP.61-76.
[28] Rezakhani, P. (2012). Fuzzy MCDM Model for Risk Factor selection in Construction Projects. Engineering Journal. Vol. 16(5) 2012
[29] Saaty, T. L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw Hill Publication, New York.
[30] Saaty, T. L. (2005). Theory and application of the ANP: Decision making with Benefits, Opportunities, cost and Risks. USA: RWS Publications.
[31] Shen, L. Y., Wu, G. W. C. and Ng, C. S. K (2001).Risk Assessment for Construction Joint Venture in China. Journal of Construction Economics and Management vol. 127(1) P76-81.
[32] Shang, H.P., Anumba C.J., Bouchlaghem D. M and Mile, J.C. (2005). An intelligent risk assessment for distributed construction teams. Engineering, Construction, Architectural Management, 12(4) 391-409
[33] Superdecisions (2013). Manual for building AHP decision model. Available @ www.superdecisions.com/manual/Ahp accessed on 5th February, 2019.
[34] Tah, J. and Carr, V. (2001). A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and analysis: construction project management system. Journal of Advances in Engineering Software vol. 32 (2001) pp. 847-857.
[35] Thomas, A.V., Kalidindi, S.N. and Ganesh, S.L. (2006). Modelling and Assessment of critical risks in BOT road Project. Journal of Management and Economics, vol. 24, pp 407-424.
[36] Wang, S.Q., Dulaimi, M.F. and Aguria, M.Y. (2004).Risk management framework for construction projects in developing countries. Journal of Construction Management and Engineering vol. (22), 237-52.
[37] Zadeh L.A. (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information Control, vol. 8 pp 338-353
[38] Zayed, T., Mohamed, A. and Pan, J. (2008). Assessing risk and uncertainty inherent in Chinese highway Projects Using AHP.ASCE International Journal of Project Management Vol. 26.pp.408-419.
[39] Zeng, J., An M. and Smith N.J. (2008): Application of a fuzzy based decision making methodology to construction project risk assessment. International Journal of Project Management vol. 25, Pp. 589-600
[40] Zhang, G. and Zou, P. X. W. (2007)..Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process risk assessment approach for joint venture construction projects in China. Journal of Construction Economics and Management, vol. 133 (10) PP.771-779.
[41] Zheng, D.X.M. and Ng, T. (2005). Stochastic time-cost optimization model incorporating fuzzy set theory and non-replacement. Journal of Construction Engineering management, 131(2) 1626-1637
[42] Zou, P. and Li, J.(2010). Risk identification and assessment in subway projects: case study of Nanjing subway line 2. Journal of Construction Management and Economics, vol.28(12) pp.1229-1238.
[43] Chan A.P.C, Chan D. W. M and Yeung J. F. Y (2009). Overview of Application “Fuzzy Techniques” in Construction Management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol., 135 (11) Pp. 1241-1251
[44] Floyd, M. K., Barker, K., Rocco, C. M., & Whitman, M. G. (2017). A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Technique for Stochastic Task Criticality in Project Management. EMJ - Engineering Management Journal, 29(3). http://doi.org/10.1080/10429247.2017.1340038
[45] Odeyinka, H. A. (2000). An evaluation of the use of insurance in managing construction risks. Construction Management and Economics, 18(5), 519–524. http://doi.org/10.1080/014461900407329
[46] Zhao, X., Hwang, B. G., & Low, S. P. (2016). An enterprise risk management knowledge-based decision support system for construction firms. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 23(3). http://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-03-2015-0042
[47] Liu, Z. zhao, Zhu, Z. wei, Wang, H. jia, & Huang, J. (2016). Handling social risks in government-driven mega project: An empirical case study from West China. International Journal of Project Management, 34(2). http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.11.003
[48] Wang, T., Wang, S., Zhang, L., Huang, Z., & Li, Y. (2016). A major infrastructure risk-assessment framework: Application to a cross-sea route project in China. International Journal of Project Management, 34(7). http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.12.006
[49] Yoo, W. S., Yang, J., Kang, S., & Lee, S. (2017). Development of a computerized risk management system for international NPP EPC projects. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 21(1). http://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-016-0784-y