Search results for: discrete event system
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8873

Search results for: discrete event system

8873 Fail-safe Modeling of Discrete Event Systems using Petri Nets

Authors: P. Nazemzadeh, A. Dideban, M. Zareiee

Abstract:

In this paper the effect of faults in the elements and parts of discrete event systems is investigated. In the occurrence of faults, some states of the system must be changed and some of them must be forbidden. For this goal, different states of these elements are examined and a model for fail-safe behavior of each state is introduced. Replacing new models of the target elements in the preliminary model by a systematic method, leads to a fail-safe discrete event system.

Keywords: Discrete event systems, Fail-safe, Petri nets, Supervisory control.

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8872 A Java Based Discrete Event Simulation Library

Authors: Brahim Belattar, Abdelhabib Bourouis

Abstract:

This paper describes important features of JAPROSIM, a free and open source simulation library implemented in Java programming language. It provides a framework for building discrete event simulation models. The process interaction world view adopted by JAPROSIM is discussed. We present the architecture and major components of the simulation library. A pedagogical example is given in order to illustrate how to use JAPROSIM for building discrete event simulation models. Further motivations are discussed and suggestions for improving our work are given.

Keywords: Discrete Event Simulation, Object-Oriented Simulation, JAPROSIM, Process Interaction Worldview, Java-based modeling and simulation.

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8871 Sampling of Variables in Discrete-Event Simulation using the Example of Inventory Evolutions in Job-Shop-Systems Based on Deterministic and Non-Deterministic Data

Authors: Bernd Scholz-Reiter, Christian Toonen, Jan Topi Tervo, Dennis Lappe

Abstract:

Time series analysis often requires data that represents the evolution of an observed variable in equidistant time steps. In order to collect this data sampling is applied. While continuous signals may be sampled, analyzed and reconstructed applying Shannon-s sampling theorem, time-discrete signals have to be dealt with differently. In this article we consider the discrete-event simulation (DES) of job-shop-systems and study the effects of different sampling rates on data quality regarding completeness and accuracy of reconstructed inventory evolutions. At this we discuss deterministic as well as non-deterministic behavior of system variables. Error curves are deployed to illustrate and discuss the sampling rate-s impact and to derive recommendations for its wellfounded choice.

Keywords: discrete-event simulation, job-shop-system, sampling rate.

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8870 Using Discrete Event Simulation Approach to Reduce Waiting Times in Computed Tomography Radiology Department

Authors: Mwafak Shakoor

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to reduce patient waiting times, improve system throughput and improve resources utilization in radiology department. A discrete event simulation model was developed using Arena simulation software to investigate different alternatives to improve the overall system delivery based on adding resource scenarios due to the linkage between patient waiting times and resource availability. The study revealed that there is no addition investment need to procure additional scanner but hospital management deploy managerial tactics to enhance machine utilization and reduce the long waiting time in the department.

Keywords: Arena, Computed Tomography (CT), Discrete event simulation, Healthcare modeling, Radiology department, Waiting time.

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8869 Design of Liquids Mixing Control System using Fuzzy Time Control Discrete Event Model for Industrial Applications

Authors: M.Saleem Khan, Khaled Benkrid

Abstract:

This paper presents a time control liquids mixing system in the tanks as an application of fuzzy time control discrete model. The system is designed for a wide range of industrial applications. The simulation design of control system has three inputs: volume, viscosity, and selection of product, along with the three external control adjustments for the system calibration or to take over the control of the system autonomously in local or distributed environment. There are four controlling elements: rotatory motor, grinding motor, heating and cooling units, and valves selection, each with time frame limit. The system consists of three controlled variables measurement through its sensing mechanism for feed back control. This design also facilitates the liquids mixing system to grind certain materials in tanks and mix with fluids under required temperature controlled environment to achieve certain viscous level. Design of: fuzzifier, inference engine, rule base, deffuzifiers, and discrete event control system, is discussed. Time control fuzzy rules are formulated, applied and tested using MATLAB simulation for the system.

Keywords: Fuzzy time control, industrial application and timecontrol systems, adjustment of Fuzzy system, liquids mixing system, design of fuzzy time control DEV system.

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8868 A Discrete-Event-Simulation Approach for Logistic Systems with Real Time Resource Routing and VR Integration

Authors: Gerrit Alves, Jürgen Roßmann, Roland Wischnewski

Abstract:

Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation system which simulates transportation models using real time resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the specification of own control algorithms and validation of new strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR) environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress. Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.

Keywords: Discrete-Event-Simulation, Logistic, Simulation, Virtual Reality.

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8867 A Study on a Discrete Event Simulation Model for Availability Analysis of Weapon Systems

Authors: Hye Lyeong Kim, Sang Yeong Choi

Abstract:

This paper discusses a discrete event simulation model for the availability analysis of weapon systems. This model incorporates missions, operational tasks and system reliability structures to analyze the availability of a weapon system. The proposed simulation model consists of 5 modules: Simulation Engine, Maintenance Organizations, System, its Mission Profile and RBD which are based on missions and operational tasks. Simulation Engine executes three kinds of discrete events in chronological order. The events are mission events generated by Mission Profile, failure events generated by System, and maintenance events executed by Maintenance Organization. Finally, this paper shows the case study of a system's availability analysis and mission reliability using the simulation model.

Keywords: MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure), MTTR (Mean Time To Repair), Availability, Reliability, RBD (Reliability Block Diagram)

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8866 A Microscopic Simulation Model for Earthmoving Operations

Authors: Jiali Fu

Abstract:

Earthmoving operations are a major part of many construction projects. Because of the complexity and fast-changing environment of such operations, the planning and estimating are crucial on both planning and operational levels. This paper presents the framework ofa microscopic discrete-event simulation system for modeling earthmoving operations and conducting productivity estimations on an operational level.A prototype has been developed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, and this simulation system is presented via a case study based on an actual earthmoving project. The case study shows that the proposed simulation model is capable of evaluating alternative operating strategies and resource utilization at a very detailed level.

Keywords: Earthmoving operation, microscopic simulation, discrete-event simulation

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8865 Testing a Flexible Manufacturing System Facility Production Capacity through Discrete Event Simulation: Automotive Case Study

Authors: Justyna Rybicka, Ashutosh Tiwari, Shane Enticott

Abstract:

In the age of automation and computation aiding manufacturing, it is clear that manufacturing systems have become more complex than ever before. Although technological advances provide the capability to gain more value with fewer resources, sometimes utilisation of the manufacturing capabilities available to organisations is difficult to achieve. Flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) provide a unique capability to manufacturing organisations where there is a need for product range diversification by providing line efficiency through production flexibility. This is very valuable in trend driven production set-ups or niche volume production requirements. Although FMS provides flexible and efficient facilities, its optimal set-up is key in achieving production performance. As many variables are interlinked due to the flexibility provided by the FMS, analytical calculations are not always sufficient to predict the FMS’ performance. Simulation modelling is capable of capturing the complexity and constraints associated with FMS. This paper demonstrates how discrete event simulation (DES) can address complexity in an FMS to optimise the production line performance. A case study of an automotive FMS is presented. The DES model demonstrates different configuration options depending on prioritising objectives: utilisation and throughput. Additionally, this paper provides insight into understanding the impact of system set-up constraints on the FMS performance and demonstrates the exploration into the optimal production set-up.

Keywords: Automotive, capacity performance, discrete event simulation, flexible manufacturing system.

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8864 Multiagent Systems Simulation

Authors: G. Balakayeva, A. Aktymbayeva

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider components of discrete event imitating model, implementing a simulation model by using JAVA and performing an input analysis of the data and an output analysis of the simulation results. Was lead development of imitating model of mass service system with n (n≥1) devices of service. On the basis of the developed process of a multithreading simulated the distributed processes with presence of synchronization. Was developed the algorithm of event-oriented simulation, was received results of system functioning with n devices of service.

Keywords: Imitating modeling, Mass service system, Multi agentsystem.

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8863 Optimization Using Simulation of the Vehicle Routing Problem

Authors: Nayera E. El-Gharably, Khaled S. El-Kilany, Aziz E. El-Sayed

Abstract:

A key element of many distribution systems is the routing and scheduling of vehicles servicing a set of customers. A wide variety of exact and approximate algorithms have been proposed for solving the vehicle routing problems (VRP). Exact algorithms can only solve relatively small problems of VRP, which is classified as NP-Hard. Several approximate algorithms have proven successful in finding a feasible solution not necessarily optimum. Although different parts of the problem are stochastic in nature; yet, limited work relevant to the application of discrete event system simulation has addressed the problem. Presented here is optimization using simulation of VRP; where, a simplified problem has been developed in the ExtendSimTM simulation environment; where, ExtendSimTM evolutionary optimizer is used to minimize the total transportation cost of the problem. Results obtained from the model are very satisfactory. Further complexities of the problem are proposed for consideration in the future.

Keywords: Discrete event system simulation, optimization using simulation, vehicle routing problem.

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8862 Application of the Discrete-Event Simulation When Optimizing of Business Processes in Trading Companies

Authors: Maxat Bokambayev, Bella Tussupova, Aisha Mamyrova, Erlan Izbasarov

Abstract:

Optimization of business processes in trading companies is reviewed in the report. There is the presentation of the “Wholesale Customer Order Handling Process” business process model applicable for small and medium businesses. It is proposed to apply the algorithm for automation of the customer order processing which will significantly reduce labor costs and time expenditures and increase the profitability of companies. An optimized business process is an element of the information system of accounting of spare parts trading network activity. The considered algorithm may find application in the trading industry as well.

Keywords: Business processes, discrete-event simulation.

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8861 Developing Efficient Testing and Unloading Procedures for a Local Sewage Holding Pit

Authors: Esra E. Aleisa

Abstract:

A local municipality has decided to build a sewage pit to receive residential sewage waste arriving by tank trucks. Daily accumulated waste are to be pumped to a nearby waste water treatment facility to be re-consumed for agricultural and construction projects. A discrete-event simulation model using Arena Software was constructed to assist in defining the capacity of the system in cubic meters, number of tank trucks to use the system, number of unload docks required, number of standby areas needed and manpower required for data collection at entrance checkpoint and truck tank load toxicity testing. The results of the model are statistically validated. Simulation turned out to be an excellent tool in the facility planning effort for the pit project, as it insured smooth flow lines of tank trucks load discharge and best utilization of facilities on site.

Keywords: Discrete-event simulation, Facilities Planning, Layout, Pit, Sewage management.

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8860 Almost Periodic Sequence Solutions of a Discrete Cooperation System with Feedback Controls

Authors: Ziping Li, Yongkun Li

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the almost periodic solutions of a discrete cooperation system with feedback controls. Assuming that the coefficients in the system are almost periodic sequences, we obtain the existence and uniqueness of the almost periodic solution which is uniformly asymptotically stable.

Keywords: Discrete cooperation model, almost periodic solution, feedback control, Lyapunov function.

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8859 Event Monitoring Based On Web Services for Heterogeneous Event Sources

Authors: Arne Koschel

Abstract:

This article discusses event monitoring options for heterogeneous event sources as they are given in nowadays heterogeneous distributed information systems. It follows the central assumption, that a fully generic event monitoring solution cannot provide complete support for event monitoring; instead, event source specific semantics such as certain event types or support for certain event monitoring techniques have to be taken into account. Following from this, the core result of the work presented here is the extension of a configurable event monitoring (Web) service for a variety of event sources. A service approach allows us to trade genericity for the exploitation of source specific characteristics. It thus delivers results for the areas of SOA, Web services, CEP and EDA.

Keywords: Event monitoring, ECA, CEP, SOA, Web services.

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8858 Dynamic-Stochastic Influence Diagrams: Integrating Time-Slices IDs and Discrete Event Systems Modeling

Authors: Xin Zhao, Yin-fan Zhu, Wei-ping Wang, Qun Li

Abstract:

The Influence Diagrams (IDs) is a kind of Probabilistic Belief Networks for graphic modeling. The usage of IDs can improve the communication among field experts, modelers, and decision makers, by showing the issue frame discussed from a high-level point of view. This paper enhances the Time-Sliced Influence Diagrams (TSIDs, or called Dynamic IDs) based formalism from a Discrete Event Systems Modeling and Simulation (DES M&S) perspective, for Exploring Analysis (EA) modeling. The enhancements enable a modeler to specify times occurred of endogenous events dynamically with stochastic sampling as model running and to describe the inter- influences among them with variable nodes in a dynamic situation that the existing TSIDs fails to capture. The new class of model is named Dynamic-Stochastic Influence Diagrams (DSIDs). The paper includes a description of the modeling formalism and the hiberarchy simulators implementing its simulation algorithm, and shows a case study to illustrate its enhancements.

Keywords: Time-sliced influence diagrams, discrete event systems, dynamic-stochastic influence diagrams, modeling formalism, simulation algorithm.

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8857 Simulation of Utility Accrual Scheduling and Recovery Algorithm in Multiprocessor Environment

Authors: A. Idawaty, O. Mohamed, A. Z. Zuriati

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of an event based Discrete Event Simulation (DES) for a recovery algorithm known Backward Recovery Global Preemptive Utility Accrual Scheduling (BR_GPUAS). This algorithm implements the Backward Recovery (BR) mechanism as a fault recovery solution under the existing Time/Utility Function/ Utility Accrual (TUF/UA) scheduling domain for multiprocessor environment. The BR mechanism attempts to take the faulty tasks back to its initial safe state and then proceeds to re-execute the affected section of the faulty tasks to enable recovery. Considering that faults may occur in the components of any system; a fault tolerance system that can nullify the erroneous effect is necessary to be developed. Current TUF/UA scheduling algorithm uses the abortion recovery mechanism and it simply aborts the erroneous task as their fault recovery solution. None of the existing algorithm in TUF/UA scheduling domain in multiprocessor scheduling environment have considered the transient fault and implement the BR mechanism as a fault recovery mechanism to nullify the erroneous effect and solve the recovery problem in this domain. The developed BR_GPUAS simulator has derived the set of parameter, events and performance metrics according to a detailed analysis of the base model. Simulation results revealed that BR_GPUAS algorithm can saved almost 20-30% of the accumulated utilities making it reliable and efficient for the real-time application in the multiprocessor scheduling environment.

Keywords: Time Utility Function/ Utility Accrual (TUF/UA) scheduling, Real-time system (RTS), Backward Recovery, Multiprocessor, Discrete Event Simulation (DES).

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8856 Event Template Generation for News Articles

Authors: A. Kowcika, E. Umamaheswari, T.V. Geetha

Abstract:

In this paper we focus on event extraction from Tamil news article. This system utilizes a scoring scheme for extracting and grouping event-specific sentences. Using this scoring scheme eventspecific clustering is performed for multiple documents. Events are extracted from each document using a scoring scheme based on feature score and condition score. Similarly event specific sentences are clustered from multiple documents using this scoring scheme. The proposed system builds the Event Template based on user specified query. The templates are filled with event specific details like person, location and timeline extracted from the formed clusters. The proposed system applies these methodologies for Tamil news articles that have been enconverted into UNL graphs using a Tamil to UNL-enconverter. The main intention of this work is to generate an event based template.

Keywords: Event Extraction, Score based Clustering, Segmentation, Template Generation.

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8855 Classification of Fuzzy Petri Nets, and Their Applications

Authors: M.H.Aziz, Erik L.J.Bohez, Manukid Parnichkun, Chanchal Saha

Abstract:

Petri Net (PN) has proven to be effective graphical, mathematical, simulation, and control tool for Discrete Event Systems (DES). But, with the growth in the complexity of modern industrial, and communication systems, PN found themselves inadequate to address the problems of uncertainty, and imprecision in data. This gave rise to amalgamation of Fuzzy logic with Petri nets and a new tool emerged with the name of Fuzzy Petri Nets (FPN). Although there had been a lot of research done on FPN and a number of their applications have been anticipated, but their basic types and structure are still ambiguous. Therefore, in this research, an effort is made to categorize FPN according to their structure and algorithms Further, literature review of the applications of FPN in the light of their classifications has been done.

Keywords: Discrete event systems, Fuzzy logic, Fuzzy Petri nets, and Petri nets.

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8854 Event Monitoring Web Services for Heterogeneous Information Systems

Authors: Arne Koschel, Irina Astrova

Abstract:

Heterogeneity has to be taken into account when integrating a set of existing information sources into a distributed information system that are nowadays often based on Service- Oriented Architectures (SOA). This is also particularly applicable to distributed services such as event monitoring, which are useful in the context of Event Driven Architectures (EDA) and Complex Event Processing (CEP). Web services deal with this heterogeneity at a technical level, also providing little support for event processing. Our central thesis is that such a fully generic solution cannot provide complete support for event monitoring; instead, source specific semantics such as certain event types or support for certain event monitoring techniques have to be taken into account. Our core result is the design of a configurable event monitoring (Web) service that allows us to trade genericity for the exploitation of source specific characteristics. It thus delivers results for the areas of SOA, Web services, CEP and EDA.

Keywords: ECA, CEP, SOA, and Web services.

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8853 Positive Periodic Solutions in a Discrete Competitive System with the Effect of Toxic Substances

Authors: Changjin Xu, Qianhong Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, a delayed competitive system with the effect of toxic substances is investigated. With the aid of differential equations with piecewise constant arguments, a discrete analogue of continuous non-autonomous delayed competitive system with the effect of toxic substances is proposed. By using Gaines and Mawhin,s continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory, a easily verifiable sufficient condition for the existence of positive solutions of difference equations is obtained.

Keywords: Competitive system, periodic solution, discrete time delay, topological degree.

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8852 Testing the Performance of Rival Warehousing Policies through Discrete Event Simulation

Authors: João Vilas-Boas, Abdul Suleman, Luis Moreira

Abstract:

This research tested the performance of alternative warehouse designs concerning the picking process. The chosen performance measures were Travel Distance and Total Fulfilment Time. An explanatory case study was built up around a model implemented with SIMUL8. Hypotheses were set by selecting outcomes from the literature survey matching popular empirical findings. 17.4% reductions were found for Total Fulfilment Time and Resource Utilisation. The latter was then used as a proxy for operational efficiency. Literal replication of theoretical data-patterns was considered as an internal validity sign. Assessing the estimated changes benefits ahead of implementation was found to be a contribution to practice.

Keywords: Warehouse discrete-event simulation, Storage policy selection and assessment, Performance evaluation of order picking.

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8851 Robust BIBO Stabilization Analysis for Discrete-time Uncertain System

Authors: Zixin Liu, Shu Lü, Shouming Zhong, Mao Ye

Abstract:

The discrete-time uncertain system with time delay is investigated for bounded input bounded output (BIBO). By constructing an augmented Lyapunov function, three different sufficient conditions are established for BIBO stabilization. These conditions are expressed in the form of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), whose feasibility can be easily checked by using Matlab LMI Toolbox. Two numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the derived results.

Keywords: Robust BIBO stabilization, delay-dependent stabilization, discrete-time system, time delay.

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8850 MPSO based Model Order Formulation Scheme for Discrete PID Controller Design

Authors: S. N. Deepa, G. Sugumaran

Abstract:

This paper proposes the novel model order formulation scheme to design a discrete PID controller for higher order linear time invariant discrete systems. Modified PSO (MPSO) based model order formulation technique has used to obtain the successful formulated second order system. PID controller is tuned to meet the desired performance specification by using pole-zero cancellation and proposed design procedures. Proposed PID controller is attached with both higher order system and formulated second order system. System specifications are tabulated and closed loop response is observed for stabilization process. The proposed method is illustrated through numerical examples from literature.

Keywords: Discrete PID controller, Model Order Formulation, Modified Particle Swarm Optimization, Pole-Zero Cancellation

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8849 A Simulation Modeling Approach for Optimization of Storage Space Allocation in Container Terminal

Authors: Gamal Abd El-Nasser A. Said, El-Sayed M. El-Horbaty

Abstract:

Container handling problems at container terminals are NP-hard problems. This paper presents an approach using discrete-event simulation modeling to optimize solution for storage space allocation problem, taking into account all various interrelated container terminal handling activities. The proposed approach is applied on a real case study data of container terminal at Alexandria port. The computational results show the effectiveness of the proposed model for optimization of storage space allocation in container terminal where 54% reduction in containers handling time in port is achieved.

Keywords: Container terminal, discrete-event simulation, optimization, storage space allocation.

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8848 Controller Design of Discrete Systems by Order Reduction Technique Employing Differential Evolution Optimization Algorithm

Authors: J. S. Yadav, N. P. Patidar, J. Singhai

Abstract:

One of the main objectives of order reduction is to design a controller of lower order which can effectively control the original high order system so that the overall system is of lower order and easy to understand. In this paper, a simple method is presented for controller design of a higher order discrete system. First the original higher order discrete system in reduced to a lower order model. Then a Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) controller is designed for lower order model. An error minimization technique is employed for both order reduction and controller design. For the error minimization purpose, Differential Evolution (DE) optimization algorithm has been employed. DE method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the desired response and actual response pertaining to a unit step input. Finally the designed PID controller is connected to the original higher order discrete system to get the desired specification. The validity of the proposed method is illustrated through a numerical example.

Keywords: Discrete System, Model Order Reduction, PIDController, Integral Squared Error, Differential Evolution.

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8847 Simulating Discrete Time Model Reference Adaptive Control System with Great Initial Error

Authors: Bubaker M. F. Bushofa, Abdel Hafez A. Azab

Abstract:

This article is based on the technique which is called Discrete Parameter Tracking (DPT). First introduced by A. A. Azab [8] which is applicable for less order reference model. The order of the reference model is (n-l) and n is the number of the adjustable parameters in the physical plant. The technique utilizes a modified gradient method [9] where the knowledge of the exact order of the nonadaptive system is not required, so, as to eliminate the identification problem. The applicability of the mentioned technique (DPT) was examined through the solution of several problems. This article introduces the solution of a third order system with three adjustable parameters, controlled according to second order reference model. The adjustable parameters have great initial error which represent condition. Computer simulations for the solution and analysis are provided to demonstrate the simplicity and feasibility of the technique.

Keywords: Adaptive Control System, Discrete Parameter Tracking, Discrete Time Model.

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8846 Development of the Gas Safety Management System using an Intelligent Gasmeter with Wireless ZigBee Network

Authors: Gyou-tae Park, Young-gyu Kim, Jeong-rock Kwon, Yongwoo Lee, Hiesik Kim

Abstract:

The gas safety management system using an intelligent gas meter we proposed is to monitor flow and pressure of gas, earthquake, temperature, smoke and leak of methane. Then our system takes safety measures to protect a serious risk by the result of an event, to communicate with a wall-pad including a gateway by zigbee network in buildings and to report the event to user by the safety management program in a server. Also, the inner cutoff valve of an intelligent gas meter is operated if any event occurred or abnormal at each sensor.

Keywords: micom gas-meter, gas safety, zigbee, ubiquitous

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8845 A Comparative Study between Discrete Wavelet Transform and Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform for Testing Stationarity

Authors: Amel Abdoullah Ahmed Dghais, Mohd Tahir Ismail

Abstract:

In this paper the core objective is to apply discrete wavelet transform and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform functions namely Haar, Daubechies2, Symmlet4, Coiflet2 and discrete approximation of the Meyer wavelets in non stationary financial time series data from Dow Jones index (DJIA30) of US stock market. The data consists of 2048 daily data of closing index from December 17, 2004 to October 23, 2012. Unit root test affirms that the data is non stationary in the level. A comparison between the results to transform non stationary data to stationary data using aforesaid transforms is given which clearly shows that the decomposition stock market index by discrete wavelet transform is better than maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform for original data.

Keywords: Discrete wavelet transform, maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform, stationarity, autocorrelation function.

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8844 A Discrete Event Simulation Model to Manage Bed Usage for Non-Elective Admissions in a Geriatric Medicine Speciality

Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

Abstract:

Over the past decade, the non-elective admissions in the UK have increased significantly. Taking into account limited resources (i.e. beds), the related service managers are obliged to manage their resources effectively due to the non-elective admissions which are mostly admitted to inpatient specialities via A&E departments. Geriatric medicine is one of specialities that have long length of stay for the non-elective admissions. This study aims to develop a discrete event simulation model to understand how possible increases on non-elective demand over the next 12 months affect the bed occupancy rate and to determine required number of beds in a geriatric medicine speciality in a UK hospital. In our validated simulation model, we take into account observed frequency distributions which are derived from a big data covering the period April, 2009 to January, 2013, for the non-elective admission and the length of stay. An experimental analysis, which consists of 16 experiments, is carried out to better understand possible effects of case studies and scenarios related to increase on demand and number of bed. As a result, the speciality does not achieve the target level in the base model although the bed occupancy rate decreases from 125.94% to 96.41% by increasing the number of beds by 30%. In addition, the number of required beds is more than the number of beds considered in the scenario analysis in order to meet the bed requirement. This paper sheds light on bed management for service managers in geriatric medicine specialities.

Keywords: Bed management, bed occupancy rate, discrete event simulation, geriatric medicine, non-elective admission.

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