Search results for: Johnson-Cook material model

Authors: M. Aboudalle, Le Btth, M. Sari, F. Meftah

Abstract:

In parallel with the appearance of new materials, brick masonry had and still has an essential part of the construction market today, with new technical challenges in designing bricks to meet additional requirements. Being used in structural applications, predicting the performance of clay brick masonry allows a significant cost reduction, in terms of practical experimentation. The behavior of masonry walls depends on the behavior of their elementary components, such as bricks, joints, and coatings. Therefore, it is necessary to consider it at different scales (from the scale of the intrinsic material to the real scale of the wall) and then to develop appropriate models, using numerical simulations. The work presented in this paper focuses on the mechanical characterization of the terracotta material at ambient temperature. As a result, the static Young’s modulus obtained from the flexural test shows different values in comparison with the compression test, as well as with the dynamic Young’s modulus obtained from the Impulse excitation of vibration test. Moreover, the Young's modulus varies according to the direction in which samples are extracted, where the values in the extrusion direction diverge from the ones in the orthogonal directions. Based on these results, hollow bricks can be considered as transversely isotropic bimodulus material.

Keywords: Bimodulus material, hollow clay brick, impulse excitation of vibration, transversely isotropic material, Young’s modulus.

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Authors: Ahmed Abbas Helmy, M. R. M. Rizk, Mohamed El-Sayed

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A model predictive controller based on recursive learning is proposed. In this SISO adaptive controller, a model is automatically updated using simple recursive equations. The identified models are then stored in the memory to be re-used in the future. The decision for model update is taken based on a new control performance index. The new controller allows the use of simple linear model predictive controllers in the control of nonlinear time varying processes.

Keywords: Adaptive control, model predictive control, dynamic matrix control, online model identification

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Authors: Gurinder Singh Brar, Sarbjeet Singh, Harry Garg

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Wire Electric Discharge Machining (WEDM) is thermal machining process capable of machining very hard electrically conductive material irrespective of their hardness. WEDM is being widely used to machine micro scale parts with the high dimensional accuracy and surface finish. The objective of this paper is to optimize the process parameters of wire EDM to fabricate the micro channels and to calculate the surface finish and material removal rate of micro channels fabricated using wire EDM. The material used is aluminum 6061 alloy. The experiments were performed using CNC wire cut electric discharge machine. The effect of various parameters of WEDM like pulse on time (TON) with the levels (100, 150, 200), pulse off time (TOFF) with the levels (25, 35, 45) and current (IP) with the levels (105, 110, 115) were investigated to study the effect on output parameter i.e. Surface Roughness and Material Removal Rate (MRR). Each experiment was conducted under different conditions of pulse on time, pulse off time and peak current. For material removal rate, TON and Ip were the most significant process parameter. MRR increases with the increase in TON and Ip and decreases with the increase in TOFF. For surface roughness, TON and Ip have the maximum effect and TOFF was found out to be less effective.

Keywords: Micro Channels, Wire Electric Discharge Machining (WEDM), Metal Removal Rate (MRR), Surface Finish.

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Authors: M. Rozanek, K. Roubik

Abstract:

The article deals with development, design and implementation of a mathematical model of the human respiratory system. The model is designed in order to simulate distribution of important intrapulmonary parameters along the bronchial tree such as pressure amplitude, tidal volume and effect of regional mechanical lung properties upon the efficiency of various ventilatory techniques. Therefore exact agreement of the model structure with the lung anatomical structure is required. The model is based on the lung morphology and electro-acoustic analogy is used to design the model.

Keywords: Model of the respiratory system, total lung impedance, intrapulmonary parameters.

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Authors: Jairo Aparecido Martins, Estaner Claro Romão

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This paper presents the static and cyclic stresses in combination with fatigue analysis resultant of loads applied on the friction discs usually utilized on industrial clutches. The material chosen to simulate the friction discs under load is aluminum. The numerical simulation was done by software COMSOL^TM Multiphysics. The results obtained for static loads showed enough stiffness for both geometries and the material utilized. On the other hand, in the fatigue standpoint, failure is clearly verified, what demonstrates the importance of both approaches, mainly dynamical analysis. The results and the conclusion are based on the stresses on disc, counted stress cycles, and fatigue usage factor.

Keywords: Aluminum, industrial clutch, static and dynamic loading, numerical simulation.

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Authors: Esmaeil Poursaeidi, Mostafa Kamalzadeh Yazdi, Mohammadreza Mohammadi Arhani1

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The most severe damage of the turbine rotor is its distortion. The rotor straightening process must lead, at the first stage, to removal of the stresses from the material by annealing and next, to straightening of the plastic distortion without leaving any stress by hot spotting. The straightening method does not produce stress accumulations and the heating technique, developed specifically for solid forged rotors and disks, enables to avoid local overheating and structural changes in the material. This process also does not leave stresses in the shaft material. An experimental study of hot spotting is carried out on a large turbine rotor and some of the most important effective parameters that must be considered on annealing and hot spotting processes are investigated in this paper.

Keywords: Annealing, Hot Spotting, Effective Parameter, Rotor

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Authors: Yongkui Cui, Fengping Wang, Hailai Zhao, Muhammad Zubair Iqbal, Ziya Wang, Yan Li, Pengpeng L. V.

Abstract:

The novel 3D SnO cabbages self-assembled by nanosheets were successfully synthesized via template-free hydrothermal growth method under facile conditions. The XRD results manifest that the as-prepared SnO is tetragonal phase. The TEM and HRTEM results show that the cabbage nanosheets are polycrystalline structure consisted of considerable single-crystalline nanoparticles. Two typical Raman modes A1g=210 and Eg=112 cm-1 of SnO are observed by Raman spectroscopy. Moreover, galvanostatic cycling tests has been performed using the SnO cabbages as anode material of lithium ion battery and the electrochemical results suggest that the synthesized SnO cabbage structures are a promising anode material for lithium ion batteries.

Keywords: Hydrothermal process, lithium ion battery, Raman spectroscopy, stannous oxide.

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Authors: Serena Alvino, Paola Forcheri, Maria Grazia Ierardi, Luigi Sarti

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One of the main advantages of the LO paradigm is to allow the availability of good quality, shareable learning material through the Web. The effectiveness of the retrieval process requires a formal description of the resources (metadata) that closely fits the user-s search criteria; in spite of the huge international efforts in this field, educational metadata schemata often fail to fulfil this requirement. This work aims to improve the situation, by the definition of a metadata model capturing specific didactic features of shareable learning resources. It classifies LOs into “teacher-oriented" and “student-oriented" categories, in order to describe the role a LO is to play when it is integrated into the educational process. This article describes the model and a first experimental validation process that has been carried out in a controlled environment.

Keywords: Learning object, pedagogical metadata, experimental validation.

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

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This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

 

Keywords: Ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors.

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Authors: Azhar Equbal, Anoop Kumar Sood, M. Asif Equbal, M. Israr Equbal

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In the present work response surface methodology (RSM) based central composite design (CCD) is used for analyzing the electrical discharge machining (EDM) process. For experimentation, mild steel is selected as work piece and copper is used as electrode. Three machining parameters namely current (I), spark on time (T_on) and spark off time (T_off) are selected as the input variables. The output or response chosen is material removal rate (MRR) which is to be maximized. To reduce the number of runs face centered central composite design (FCCCD) was used. ANOVA was used to determine the significance of parameter and interactions. The suitability of model is tested using Anderson darling (AD) plot. The results conclude that different parameters considered i.e. current, pulse on and pulse off time; all have dominant effect on the MRR. At last, the optimized parameter setting for maximizing MRR is found through main effect plot analysis.

Keywords: Electrical discharge machining, electrode, MRR, RSM, ANOVA.

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Authors: Ergin Kosa, Ali Göksenli

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Erosion and abrasion are wear mechanisms reducing the lifetime of machine elements like valves, pump and pipe systems. Both wear mechanisms are acting at the same time, causing a “Synergy” effect, which leads to a rapid damage of the surface. Different parameters are effective on erosive abrasive wear rate. In this study effect of particle impact angle on wear rate and wear mechanism of ductile and brittle materials was investigated. A new slurry pot was designed for experimental investigation. As abrasive particle, silica sand was used. Particle size was ranking between 200- 500 μm. All tests were carried out in a sand-water mixture of 20% concentration for four hours. Impact velocities of the particles were 4.76 m/s. As ductile material steel St 37 with Vickers Hardness Number (VHN) of 245 and quenched St 37 with 510 VHN was used as brittle material. After wear tests, morphology of the eroded surfaces were investigated for better understanding of the wear mechanisms acting at different impact angles by using Scanning Electron Microscope. The results indicated that wear rate of ductile material was higher than brittle material. Maximum wear rate was observed by ductile material at a particle impact angle of 300 and decreased further by an increase in attack angle. Maximum wear rate by brittle materials was by impact angle of 450 and decreased further up to 900. Ploughing was the dominant wear mechanism by ductile material. Microcracks on the surface were detected by ductile materials, which are nucleation centers for crater formation. Number of craters decreased and depth of craters increased by ductile materials by attack angle higher than 300. Deformation wear mechanism was observed by brittle materials. Number and depth of pits decreased by brittle materials by impact angles higher than 450. At the end it is concluded that wear rate could not be directly related to impact angle of particles due to the different reaction of ductile and brittle materials.

Keywords: Erosive wear, particle impact angle, silica sand, wear rate, ductile-brittle material.

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Authors: A. Uchaipichat

Abstract:

The hydro-mechanical model for unsaturated soils has been presented based on the effective stress principle taking into account effects of drying-wetting process. The elasto-plastic constitutive equations for stress-strain relations of the soil skeleton have been established. A plasticity model is modified from modified Cam-Clay model. The hardening rule has been established by considering the isotropic consolidation paths. The effect of dryingwetting process is introduced through the ¤ç parameter. All model coefficients are identified in terms of measurable parameters. The simulations from the proposed model are compared with the experimental results. The model calibration was performed to extract the model parameter from the experimental results. Good agreement between the results predicted using proposed model and the experimental results was obtained.

Keywords: Drying-wetting process, Effective stress, Elastoplasticmodel, Unsaturated soils

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Authors: C. Sinescu, M. Negrutiu, R. Negru, M. Romînu, A.G. Podoleanu

Abstract:

The fixed partial dentures are mainly used in the frontal part of the dental arch because of their great esthetics. There are several factors that are associated with the stress state created in ceramic restorations, including: thickness of ceramic layers, mechanical properties of the materials, elastic modulus of the supporting substrate material, direction, magnitude and frequency of applied load, size and location of occlusal contact areas, residual stresses induced by processing or pores, restoration-cement interfacial defects and environmental defects. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the capability of Polarization Sensitive Optical Coherence Tomography (PSOCT) in detection and analysis of possible material defects in metal-ceramic and integral ceramic fixed partial dentures. As a conclusion, it is important to have a non invasive method to investigate fixed partial prostheses before their insertion in the oral cavity in order to satisfy the high stress requirements and the esthetic function.

Keywords: Ceramic Fixed Partial Dentures, Material Defects, Polarization Sensitive Optical Coherence Tomography, Numerical Simulation

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Authors: Ainul Akmar Mokhtar, Masdi Muhammad, Hilmi Hussin, Mohd Amin Abdul Majid

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A reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) model has been built for acid gas removal plant for system analysis that will play an important role in any process modifications, if required, for achieving its optimum performance. Due to the complexity of the plant, the model was based on a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) with a Monte Carlo simulation engine. The model has been validated against actual plant data as well as local expert opinions, resulting in an acceptable simulation model. The results from the model showed that the operation and maintenance can be further improved, resulting in reduction of the annual production loss.

Keywords: Acid gas removal plant, RAM model, Reliabilityblock diagram

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Authors: S. P. Jordan, G. Christian, S. P. Jeffs

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Modern composite materials are increasingly being chosen in replacement of heavier metallic material systems within many engineering fields including aerospace and automotive industries. The increasing push towards satisfying environmental targets are fuelling new material technologies and manufacturing processes. This paper will introduce materials and manufacturing processes using metal matrix composites along with manufacturing processes optimized at Alvant Ltd., based in Basingstoke in the UK which offers modern, cost effective, selectively reinforced composites for light-weighting applications within engineering. An overview and introduction into modern optimized manufacturing methods capable of producing viable replacements for heavier metallic and lower temperature capable polymer composites are offered. A review of the capabilities and future applications of this viable material is discussed to highlight the potential involved in further optimization of old manufacturing techniques, to fully realize the potential to lightweight material using cost-effective methods.

Keywords: Aluminum matrix composites, light-weighting, hybrid squeeze casting, strategically placed reinforcements.

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Authors: F.Agalianos, S.Patelis , P. Kyratsis, E. Maravelakis, E.Vasarmidis, A.Antoniadis

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Laser engraving is a manufacturing method for those applications where previously Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) was the only choice. Laser engraving technology removes material layer-by-layer and the thickness of layers is usually in the range of few microns. The aim of the present work is to investigate the influence of the process parameters on the surface quality when machined by laser engraving. The examined parameters were: the pulse frequency, the beam speed and the layer thickness. The surface quality was determined by the surface roughness for every set of parameters. Experimental results on Al7075 material showed that the surface roughness strictly depends on the process parameters used.

Keywords: Laser engraving, Al7075, Yb: YAG laser, laser process parameters, material roughness.

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Authors: Jongmin Kim, Tae-Ho Song

Abstract:

A measurement apparatus is designed and fabricated to measure the effective thermal conductivity (keff) of a VIP (vacuum insulation panel) core specimen under various vacuum states and external loads. The apparatus consists of part for measuring keff, and parts for controlling external load and vacuum condition. Uncertainty of the apparatus is validated by measuring the standard reference material and comparing with commercial devices with VIP samples. Assessed uncertainty is maximum 2.5 % in case of the standard reference material, 10 % in case of VIP samples. Using the apparatus, keff of glass paper under various vacuum levels is examined.

Keywords: Effective thermal conductivity, guarded hot plate method, vacuum insulation panel

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Authors: M. A. Ghorbani, M. Pasbani Khiavi

Abstract:

The seismic response of steel shear wall system considering nonlinearity effects using finite element method is investigated in this paper. The non-linear finite element analysis has potential as usable and reliable means for analyzing of civil structures with the availability of computer technology. In this research the large displacements and materially nonlinear behavior of shear wall is presented with developing of finite element code. A numerical model based on the finite element method for the seismic analysis of shear wall is presented with developing of finite element code in this research. To develop the finite element code, the standard Galerkin weighted residual formulation is used. Two-dimensional plane stress model and total Lagrangian formulation was carried out to present the shear wall response and the Newton-Raphson method is applied for the solution of nonlinear transient equations. The presented model in this paper can be developed for analysis of civil engineering structures with different material behavior and complicated geometry.

Keywords: Finite element, steel shear wall, nonlinear, earthquake

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Authors: Racholsan Raj Nirmal, B. S. V. Patnaik, R. Jayaganthan

Abstract:

The deformation behaviour of additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy under low strains, high strain rates and elevated temperature conditions is essential to analyse and predict its response against dynamic loading such as impact and thermomechanical fatigue. The constitutive relation of Johnson-Cook is used to capture the strain rate sensitivity and thermal softening effect in AlSi10Mg alloy. Johnson-Cook failure model is widely used for exploring damage mechanics and predicting the fracture in many materials. In this present work, Johnson-Cook material and damage model parameters for additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy have been determined numerically from four types of uniaxial tensile test. Three different uniaxial tensile tests with dynamic strain rates (0.1, 1, 10, 50, and 100 s^-1) and elevated temperature tensile test with three different temperature conditions (450 K, 500 K and 550 K) were performed on 3D printed AlSi10Mg alloy in ABAQUS/Explicit. Hexahedral elements are used to discretize tensile specimens and fracture energy value of 43.6 kN/m was used for damage initiation. Levenberg Marquardt optimization method was used for the evaluation of Johnson-Cook model parameters. It was observed that additively manufactured AlSi10Mg alloy has shown relatively higher strain rate sensitivity and lower thermal stability as compared to the other Al alloys.

Keywords: ABAQUS, additive manufacturing, AlSi10Mg, Johnson-Cook model.

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Authors: Guoliang Fan, Aiping Li, Nan Xie, Liyun Xu, Xuemei Liu

Abstract:

Mass customization production increases the difficulty of the production line layout planning. The material distribution process for variety of parts is very complex, which greatly increases the cost of material handling and logistics. In response to this problem, this paper presents an approach of production line layout planning based on complexity measurement. Firstly, by analyzing the influencing factors of equipment layout, the complexity model of production line is established by using information entropy theory. Then, the cost of the part logistics is derived considering different variety of parts. Furthermore, the function of optimization including two objectives of the lowest cost, and the least configuration complexity is built. Finally, the validity of the function is verified in a case study. The results show that the proposed approach may find the layout scheme with the lowest logistics cost and the least complexity. Optimized production line layout planning can effectively improve production efficiency and equipment utilization with lowest cost and complexity.

Keywords: Production line, layout planning, complexity measurement, optimization, mass customization.

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Authors: Jaroslav Polec, Viliam Hirner, Michal Martinovič, Kvetoslava Kotuliaková

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In this paper we present a novel error model for packet loss and subsequent error description. The proposed model simulates the error performance of wireless communication link. The model is designed as two independent Markov chains, where the first one is used for packet generation and the second one generates correctly and incorrectly transmitted bits for received packets from the first chain. The statistical analyses of real communication on the wireless link are used for determination of model-s parameters. Using the obtained parameters and the implementation of the generator, we collected generated traffic. The obtained results generated by proposed model are compared with the real data collection.

Keywords: Wireless channel, error model, Markov chain, Elliot model, Gilbert model, generator, IEEE 802.11.

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Authors: G. Partheepan, D.K. Sehgal, R.K. Pandey

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This paper presents a method for determining the uniaxial tensile properties such as Young-s modulus, yield strength and the flow behaviour of a material in a virtually non-destructive manner. To achieve this, a new dumb-bell shaped miniature specimen has been designed. This helps in avoiding the removal of large size material samples from the in-service component for the evaluation of current material properties. The proposed miniature specimen has an advantage in finite element modelling with respect to computational time and memory space. Test fixtures have been developed to enable the tension tests on the miniature specimen in a testing machine. The studies have been conducted in a chromium (H11) steel and an aluminum alloy (AR66). The output from the miniature test viz. load-elongation diagram is obtained and the finite element simulation of the test is carried out using a 2D plane stress analysis. The results are compared with the experimental results. It is observed that the results from the finite element simulation corroborate well with the miniature test results. The approach seems to have potential to predict the mechanical properties of the materials, which could be used in remaining life estimation of the various in-service structures.

Keywords: ABAQUS, finite element, miniature test, tensileproperties

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Authors: Tomoya Okubo, Kuninori Nakamura, Shin-ichi Mayekawa

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In this research, a latent class vector model for pairwise data is formulated. As compared to the basic vector model, this model yields consistent estimates of the parameters since the number of parameters to be estimated does not increase with the number of subjects. The result of the analysis reveals that the model was stable and could classify each subject to the latent classes representing the typical scales used by these subjects.

Keywords: finite mixture models, latent class analysis, Thrustone's paired comparison method, vector model

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Authors: T. N. Mac, B. Shahbodaghkhan, N. Khalili

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A new elastic-viscoplastic (EVP) constitutive model is proposed for the analysis of time-dependent behavior of clay. The proposed model is based on the bounding surface plasticity and the concept of viscoplastic consistency framework to establish continuous transition from plasticity to rate dependent viscoplasticity. Unlike the overstress based models, this model will meet the consistency condition in formulating the constitutive equation for EVP model. The procedure of deriving the constitutive relationship is also presented. Simulation results and comparisons with experimental data are then presented to demonstrate the performance of the model.

Keywords: Bounding surface, consistency theory, constitutive model, viscosity.

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Authors: A. Shebani, C. Pislaru

Abstract:

The wear measuring and wear modelling are fundamental issues in the industrial field, mainly correlated to the economy and safety. Therefore, there is a need to study the wear measurements and wear estimation. Pin-on-disc test is the most common test which is used to study the wear behaviour. In this paper, the pin-on-disc (AEROTECH UNIDEX 11) is used for the investigation of the effects of normal load and hardness of material on the wear under dry and sliding conditions. In the pin-on-disc rig, two specimens were used; one, a pin is made of steel with a tip, positioned perpendicular to the disc, where the disc is made of aluminium. The pin wear and disc wear were measured by using the following instruments: The Talysurf instrument, a digital microscope, and the alicona instrument. The Talysurf profilometer was used to measure the pin/disc wear scar depth, digital microscope was used to measure the diameter and width of wear scar, and the alicona was used to measure the pin wear and disc wear. After that, the Archard model, American Society for Testing and Materials model (ASTM), and neural network model were used for pin/disc wear modelling. Simulation results were implemented by using the Matlab program. This paper focuses on how the alicona can be used for wear measurements and how the neural network can be used for wear estimation.

Keywords: Wear measuring, Wear modelling, Neural Network, Alicona.

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Authors: Wanna Saikaew, Pairat Kaewsarn, Wuthikorn Saikaew

Abstract:

The ability of pomelo peel, a natural biosorbent, to remove Cd(II) ions from aqueous solution by biosorption was investigated. The experiments were carried out by batch method at 25 °C. The influence of solution pH, initial cadmium ion concentrations and contact times were evaluated. Cadmium ion removal increased significantly as the pH of the solution increased from pH 1 to pH 5. At pH 5, the cadmium ion removal reached a maximum value. The equilibrium process was described well by the Langmuir isotherm model, with a maximum biosorption capacity of 21.83 mg/g. The biosorption was relatively quick, (approx. 20 min). Biosorption kinetics followed a pseudo-second-order model. The result showed that pomelo peel was effective as a biosorbent for removing cadmium ions from aqueous solution. It is a low cost material that shows potential to be applied in wastewater technology for remediation of heavy metal contamination.

Keywords: Pomelo peel, biosorption, Cadmium ions.

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Authors: O. Alizadeh Sahraei, A. Khodadadi, Y. Mortazavi, M. Vesali Naseh, S. Mosadegh

Abstract:

A composite made of plasma functionalized multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) coated with SnO2 was synthesized by sonochemical precipitation method. Thick layer of this nanocomposite material was used as ethanol sensor at low temperatures. The composite sensitivity for ethanol has increased by a factor of 2 at room temperature and by a factor of 13 at 250°C in comparison to that of pure SnO2. SEM image of nanocomposite material showed MWNTs were embedded in SnO2 matrix and also a higher surface area was observed in the presence of functionalized MWNTs. Greatly improved sensitivity of the composite material to ethanol can be attributed to new gas accessing passes through MWNTs and higher specific surface area.

Keywords: Carbon nanotube, Functionalized, Gas sensor, Low temperature, Nanocomposite, Tin oxide.

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Authors: E.V. Butilă, F. Gîrbacia

Abstract:

In order to give high expertise the computer aided design of mechanical systems involves specific activities focused on processing two type of information: knowledge and data. Expert rule based knowledge is generally processing qualitative information and involves searching for proper solutions and their combination into synthetic variant. Data processing is based on computational models and it is supposed to be inter-related with reasoning in the knowledge processing. In this paper an Intelligent Integrated System is proposed, for the objective of choosing the adequate material. The software is developed in Prolog – Flex software and takes into account various constraints that appear in the accurate operation of gears.

Keywords: Expert System, computer aided design, gear boxdesign, chose material, Prolog, Flex

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Authors: M. A. Ghorbani, M. Pasbani Khiavi, F. Rezaie Moghaddam

Abstract:

In the analysis of structures, the nonlinear effects due to large displacement, large rotation and materially-nonlinear are very important and must be considered for the reliable analysis. The non-linear fmite element analysis has potential as usable and reliable means for analyzing of civil structures with the availability of computer technology. In this research the large displacements and materially nonlinear behavior of shear wall is presented with developing of fmite element code using the standard Galerkin weighted residual formulation. Two-dimensional plane stress model was carried out to present the shear wall response. Total Lagangian formulation, which is computationally more effective, is used in the formulation of stiffness matrices and the Newton-Raphson method is applied for the solution of nonlinear transient equations. The details of the program formulation are highlighted and the results of the analyses are presented, along with a comparison of the response of the structure with Ansys software results. The presented model in this paper can be developed for nonlinear analysis of civil engineering structures with different material behavior and complicated geometry.

Keywords: Finite element, large displacements, materially nonlinear, shear wall.

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Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

The hydrologic time series data display periodic structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.

Keywords: Diagnostic checks, Lyari river, Model selection, Monthly waste flow, Periodicity, Periodic autoregressive model.

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