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Quantitative Estimation of Periodicities in Lyari River Flow Routing

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor


The hydrologic time series data display periodic structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.

Keywords: Model selection, Periodicity, Diagnostic checks, Lyari river, Monthly waste flow, Periodic autoregressive model

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