Search results for: power error

Authors: Mohammed Amroune, Hadi Sebaa, Tarek Bouktir

Abstract:

Reactive power limit of power system is one of the major causes of voltage instability. The only way to save the system from voltage instability is to reduce the reactive power load or add additional reactive power to reaching the point of voltage collapse. In recent times, the application of FACTS devices is a very effective solution to prevent voltage instability due to their fast and very flexible control. In this paper, voltage stability assessment with SVC and TCSC devices is investigated and compared in the modified IEEE 30-bus test system. The fast voltage stability indicator (FVSI) is used to identify weakest bus and to assess the voltage stability of power system.

Keywords: SVC, TCSC, Voltage stability, Fast Voltage Stability Index (FVSI), Reactive power.

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Authors: Young-San Shin, Seongsoo Lee

Abstract:

Hall sensor is widely used to measure rotation angle. When the Hall voltage is measured for linear displacement, it is converted to angular displacement using arctangent function, which requires a large lookup table. In this paper, a lookup table reduction technique is presented for angle measurement. When the input of the lookup table is small within a certain threshold, the change of the outputs with respect to the change of the inputs is relatively small. Thus, several inputs can share same output, which significantly reduce the lookup table size. Its error analysis was also performed, and the threshold was determined so as to maintain the error less than 1°. When the Hall voltage has 11-bit resolution, the lookup table size is reduced from 1,024 samples to 279 samples.

Keywords: Hall sensor, angle measurement, lookup table, arctangent.

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Authors: P. Bárta

Abstract:

Increasing demand on the performance of Subsea Production Systems (SPS) suggests a need for more detailed investigation of fluid behavior taking place in subsea equipment. Complete CFD cool down analyses of subsea equipment are very time demanding. The objective of this paper is to investigate a Locked CFD approach, which enables significant reduction of the computational time and at the same time maintains sufficient accuracy during thermal cool down simulations. The result comparison of a dead leg simulation using the Full CFD and the three LCFD-methods confirms the validity of the locked flow field assumption for the selected case. For the tested case the LCFD simulation speed up by factor of 200 results in the absolute thermal error of 0.5 °C (3% relative error), speed up by factor of 10 keeps the LCFD results within 0.1 °C (0.5 % relative error) comparing to the Full CFD.

Keywords: CFD, Locked Flow Field, Speed up of CFD simulation time, Subsea

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Authors: Linjun Wu, Shihua Zhu, Xingle Feng

Abstract:

In Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems, the peak to average power ratio (PAR) is much high. The clipping signal scheme is a useful method to reduce PAR. Clipping the OFDM signal, however, increases the overall noise level by introducing clipping noise. It is necessary to recover the figure of the original signal at receiver in order to reduce the clipping noise. Considering the continuity of the signal and the figure of the peak, we obtain a certain conic function curve to replace the clipped signal module within the clipping time. The results of simulation show that the proposed scheme can reduce the systems? BER (bit-error rate) 10 times when signal-to-interference-and noise-ratio (SINR) equals to 12dB. And the BER performance of the proposed scheme is superior to that of kim's scheme, too.

Keywords: Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing, Peak-to-Average Power Ratio, clipping time, conic function.

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Authors: H. Abaali

Abstract:

The power buck converter is the most widely used DC/DC converter topology. They have a very large application area such as DC motor drives, photovoltaic power system which require fast transient responses and high efficiency over a wide range of load current. This work proposes, the modelling of DC/DC power buck converter using state-space averaging method and the current-mode control using a proportional-integral controller. The efficiency of the proposed model and control loop are evaluated with operating point changes. The simulation results proved the effectiveness of the linear model of DC/DC power buck converter.

Keywords: DC/DC power buck converter, Linear current control, State-space averaging method.

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Authors: S. Nazhan, Hassan K. Al-Musawi, Khalid A. Humood

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This paper reports on an experimental investigation into the influence of current modulation on the properties of a vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) with a direct square wave modulation. The optical output power response, as a function of the pumping current, modulation frequency, and amplitude, is measured for an 850 nm VCSEL. We demonstrate that modulation frequency and amplitude play important roles in reducing the VCSEL’s power consumption for optical generation. Indeed, even when the biasing current is below the static threshold, the VCSEL emits optical power under the square wave modulation. The power consumed by the device to generate light is significantly reduced to > 50%, which is below the threshold current, in response to both the modulation frequency and amplitude. An operating VCSEL device at low power is very desirable for less thermal effects, which are essential for a high-speed modulation bandwidth.

Keywords: VCSELs, optical power generation, power consumption, square wave modulation.

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Authors: Andhe Dharani, P. S. Satyanarayana, Andhe Pallavi

Abstract:

Considering payload, reliability, security and operational lifetime as major constraints in transmission of images we put forward in this paper a steganographic technique implemented at the physical layer. We suggest transmission of Halftoned images (payload constraint) in wireless sensor networks to reduce the amount of transmitted data. For low power and interference limited applications Turbo codes provide suitable reliability. Ensuring security is one of the highest priorities in many sensor networks. The Turbo Code structure apart from providing forward error correction can be utilized to provide for encryption. We first consider the Halftoned image and then the method of embedding a block of data (called secret) in this Halftoned image during the turbo encoding process is presented. The small modifications required at the turbo decoder end to extract the embedded data are presented next. The implementation complexity and the degradation of the BER (bit error rate) in the Turbo based stego system are analyzed. Using some of the entropy based crypt analytic techniques we show that the strength of our Turbo based stego system approaches that found in the OTPs (one time pad).

Keywords: Halftoning, Turbo codes, security, operationallifetime, Turbo based stego system.

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Dmitry V. Egorov

Abstract:

This paper introduces an original method of parametric optimization of the structure for multimodal decisionlevel fusion scheme which combines the results of the partial solution of the classification task obtained from assembly of the mono-modal classifiers. As a result, a multimodal fusion classifier which has the minimum value of the total error rate has been obtained.

Keywords: Сlassification accuracy, fusion solution, total error rate.

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Authors: J. Mirzaei, H. Kazemi Kargar

Abstract:

This paper presents a new approach for setting frequency relays based on the dynamic of power system. A simplified model of the power system based on the load-frequency control loop will be developed to be used instead of the complete model of the power system. The effects of the equipments and their responses on the frequency variations of the power plant will be investigated and then a method for adaptive settings of frequency relays will be explained. The proposed method will be investigated by analyzing a simplified model of a power plant by MATLAB software.

Keywords: Adaptive Settings, Frequency Relay (FR), PowerSystem Dynamics, SFR model.

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Authors: U. Ramesh Babu, V. Vijay Kumar Reddy, S. Tara Kalyani

Abstract:

The growth in the demand of electrical energy is leading to load on the Power system which increases the occurrence of frequent oscillations in the system. The reason for the oscillations is due to the lack of damping torque which is required to dominate the disturbances of Power system. By using FACT devices, such as Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC) can control power flow, reduce sub-synchronous resonances and increase transient stability. Hence, UPFC is used to damp the oscillations occurred in Power system. This research focuses on adapting the neuro fuzzy controller for the UPFC design by connecting the infinite bus (SMIB - Single machine Infinite Bus) to a linearized model of synchronous machine (Heffron-Phillips) in the power system. This model gains the capability to improve the transient stability and to damp the oscillations of the system.

Keywords: Power System, UPFC, (ANFIS) Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System, transient, Low frequency oscillations.

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Authors: Sidhartha Panda, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Power system stabilizers (PSS) are now routinely used in the industry to damp out power system oscillations. In this paper, particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique is applied to coordinately design multiple power system stabilizers (PSS) in a multi-machine power system. The design problem of the proposed controllers is formulated as an optimization problem and PSO is employed to search for optimal controller parameters. By minimizing the time-domain based objective function, in which the deviation in the oscillatory rotor speed of the generator is involved; stability performance of the system is improved. The non-linear simulation results are presented for various severe disturbances and small disturbance at different locations as well as for various fault clearing sequences to show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed controller and their ability to provide efficient damping of low frequency oscillations.

Keywords: Low frequency oscillations, Particle swarm optimization, power system stability, power system stabilizer, multimachine power system.

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Authors: J. S. Yadav, N. P. Patidar, J. Singhai

Abstract:

One of the main objectives of order reduction is to design a controller of lower order which can effectively control the original high order system so that the overall system is of lower order and easy to understand. In this paper, a simple method is presented for controller design of a higher order discrete system. First the original higher order discrete system in reduced to a lower order model. Then a Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) controller is designed for lower order model. An error minimization technique is employed for both order reduction and controller design. For the error minimization purpose, Differential Evolution (DE) optimization algorithm has been employed. DE method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the desired response and actual response pertaining to a unit step input. Finally the designed PID controller is connected to the original higher order discrete system to get the desired specification. The validity of the proposed method is illustrated through a numerical example.

Keywords: Discrete System, Model Order Reduction, PIDController, Integral Squared Error, Differential Evolution.

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Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol, C. Ardil

Abstract:

The paper examines the performance of bit-interleaved parity (BIP) methods in error rate monitoring, and in declaration and clearing of alarms in those transport networks that employ automatic protection switching (APS). The BIP-based error rate monitoring is attractive for its simplicity and ease of implementation. The BIP-based results are compared with exact results and are found to declare the alarms too late, and to clear the alarms too early. It is concluded that the standards development and systems implementation should take into account the fact of early clearing and late declaration of alarms. The window parameters defining the detection and clearing thresholds should be set so as to build sufficient hysteresis into the system to ensure that BIP-based implementations yield acceptable performance results.

Keywords: Automatic protection switching, bit interleaved parity, excessive bit error rate

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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Authors: Khalil Monfaredi, Hassan Faraji Baghtash, Majid Abbasi

Abstract:

In this paper a novel high output impedance, low input impedance, wide bandwidth, very simple current mirror with input and output voltage requirements less than that of a simple current mirror is presented. These features are achieved with very simple structure avoiding extra large node impedances to ensure high bandwidth operation. The circuit's principle of operation is discussed and compared to simple and low voltage cascode (LVC) current mirrors. Such outstanding features of this current mirror as high output impedance ~384K, low input impedance~6.4, wide bandwidth~178MHz, low input voltage ~ 362mV, low output voltage ~ 38mV and low current transfer error ~4% (all at 50μA) makes it an outstanding choice for high performance applications. Simulation results in BSIM 0.35μm CMOS technology with HSPICE are given in comparison with simple, and LVC current mirrors to verify and validate the performance of the proposed current mirror.

Keywords: Analog circuits, Current mirror, high frequency, Low power, Low voltage.

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Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Soon-Ryul Nam

Abstract:

The power system frequency falls when disturbance such as rapid increase of system load or loss of a generating unit occurs in power systems. Especially, increase in the number of renewable generating units has a bad influence on the power system because of loss of generating unit depending on the circumstance. Conventional technologies use frequency droop control battery output for the frequency regulation and balance between supply and demand. If power is supplied using the fast output characteristic of the battery, power system stability can be further more improved. To improve the power system stability, we propose battery output control using ROCOF (Rate of Change of Frequency) in this paper. The bigger the power difference between the supply and the demand, the bigger the ROCOF drops. Battery output is controlled proportionally to the magnitude of the ROCOF, allowing for faster response to power imbalances. To simulate the control method of battery output system, we develop the user defined model using PSS/E and confirm that power system stability is improved by comparing with frequency droop control.

Keywords: PSS/E user defined model, power deviation, frequency droop control, ROCOF, rate of change of frequency.

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Authors: Khairul Jauhari, Achmad Widodo, Ismoyo Haryanto

Abstract:

In this article, the radial displacement error correction capability of a high precision spindle grinding caused by unbalance force was investigated. The spindle shaft is considered as a flexible rotor mounted on two sets of angular contact ball bearing. Finite element methods (FEM) have been adopted for obtaining the equation of motion of the spindle. In this paper, firstly, natural frequencies, critical frequencies, and amplitude of the unbalance response caused by residual unbalance are determined in order to investigate the spindle behaviors. Furthermore, an optimization design algorithm is employed to minimize radial displacement of the spindle which considers dimension of the spindle shaft, the dynamic characteristics of the bearings, critical frequencies and amplitude of the unbalance response, and computes optimum spindle diameters and stiffness and damping of the bearings. Numerical simulation results show that by optimizing the spindle diameters, and stiffness and damping in the bearings, radial displacement of the spindle can be reduced. A spindle about 4 μm radial displacement error can be compensated with 2 μm accuracy. This certainly can improve the accuracy of the product of machining.

Keywords: Error correction, High precision grinding, Optimization, Radial displacement, Spindle.

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Authors: Hicham Serhoud, Djilani Benattous

Abstract:

In this paper present a sensorless maximum wind power extraction for variable speed constant frequency (VSCF) wind power generation systems with a doubly-fed induction generators (DFIG), to ensure stability and to impose the ideal feedback control solution despite of model uncertainties , using the principles of an active and reactive power controller (DPC) a robust sliding mode power control has been proposed to guarantees fast response times and precise control actions for control the active and reactive power independently. The simulation results in MATLAB/Simulink platform confirmed the good dynamic performance of power control approach for DFIGbased variable speed wind turbines.

Keywords: Doubly fed induction generator , sliding modecontrol, maximal wind energy capture, MRAS estimator

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Authors: James Dunia, Bakari M. M. Mwinyiwiwa

Abstract:

Photovoltaic (PV) energy is one of the most important energy resources since it is clean, pollution free, and endless. Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) is used in photovoltaic (PV) systems to maximize the photovoltaic output power, irrespective the variations of temperature and radiation conditions. This paper presents a comparison between Ćuk and SEPIC converter in maximum power point tracking (MPPT) of photovoltaic (PV) system. In the paper, advantages and disadvantages of both converters are described. Incremental conductance control method has been used as maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithm. The two converters and MPPT algorithm were modelled using MATLAB/Simulink software for simulation. Simulation results show that both Ćuk and SEPIC converters can track the maximum power point with some minor variations. 

Keywords: Ćuk Converter, Incremental Conductance, Maximum Power Point Tracking, PV Module, SEPIC Converter.

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Authors: Abiodun M. Aibinu, Athaur Rahman Najeeb, Momoh J. E. Salami, Amir A. Shafie

Abstract:

An alternative approach to the use of Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) for Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) reconstruction is the use of parametric modeling technique. This method is suitable for problems in which the image can be modeled by explicit known source functions with a few adjustable parameters. Despite the success reported in the use of modeling technique as an alternative MRI reconstruction technique, two important problems constitutes challenges to the applicability of this method, these are estimation of Model order and model coefficient determination. In this paper, five of the suggested method of evaluating the model order have been evaluated, these are: The Final Prediction Error (FPE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Residual Variance (RV), Minimum Description Length (MDL) and Hannan and Quinn (HNQ) criterion. These criteria were evaluated on MRI data sets based on the method of Transient Error Reconstruction Algorithm (TERA). The result for each criterion is compared to result obtained by the use of a fixed order technique and three measures of similarity were evaluated. Result obtained shows that the use of MDL gives the highest measure of similarity to that use by a fixed order technique.

Keywords: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), MagneticResonance Imaging (MRI), Parametric modeling, Transient Error.

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Authors: Yehya Abdellatif, Ahmed Alsalaymeh, Iyad Muslih, Ali Alshduifat

Abstract:

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems, mainly small scale, are rapidly being deployed in Jordan. The impact of these systems on the grid has not been studied or analyzed. These systems can cause many technical problems such as reverse power flows and voltage rises in distribution feeders, and real and reactive power transients that affect the operation of the transmission system. To fully understand and address these problems, extensive research, simulation, and case studies are required. To this end, this paper studies the cloud shadow effect on the power generation of a ground mounted PV system installed at the test field of the Renewable Energy Center at the Applied Science University.

Keywords: Photovoltaic, cloud effect, MPPT, power transients.

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Authors: K-L. Areerak, K-N. Areerak

Abstract:

The paper deals with the comparison study of harmonic detection methods for a shunt active power filter. The %THD and the power factor value at the PCC point after compensation are considered for the comparison. There are three harmonic detection methods used in the paper that are synchronous reference frame method, synchronous detection method, and DQ axis with Fourier method. In addition, the ideal current source is used to represent the active power filter by assuming an infinitely fast controller action of the active power filter. The simulation results show that the DQ axis with Fourier method provides the minimum %THD after compensation compared with other methods. However, the power factor value at the PCC point after compensation is slightly lower than that of synchronous detection method.

Keywords: Harmonic detection, shunt active power filter, DQaxis with Fourier, power factor.

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Authors: Jayendra Krishna, Laxmi Srivastava

Abstract:

Power flow (PF) study, which is performed to determine the power system static states (voltage magnitudes and voltage angles) at each bus to find the steady state operating condition of a system, is very important and is the most frequently carried out study by power utilities for power system planning, operation and control. In this paper, a counterpropagation neural network (CPNN) is proposed to solve power flow problem under different loading/contingency conditions for computing bus voltage magnitudes and angles of the power system. The counterpropagation network uses a different mapping strategy namely counterpropagation and provides a practical approach for implementing a pattern mapping task, since learning is fast in this network. The composition of the input variables for the proposed neural network has been selected to emulate the solution process of a conventional power flow program. The effectiveness of the proposed CPNN based approach for solving power flow is demonstrated by computation of bus voltage magnitudes and voltage angles for different loading conditions and single line-outage contingencies in IEEE 14-bus system.

Keywords: Admittance matrix, counterpropagation neural network, line outage contingency, power flow

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Authors: Thomas O. Olwal, Michael A. van Wyk, Barend J. van Wyk

Abstract:

In this paper we present a soft timing phase estimation (STPE) method for wireless mobile receivers operating in low signal to noise ratios (SNRs). Discrete Polyphase Matched (DPM) filters, a Log-maximum a posterior probability (MAP) and/or a Soft-output Viterbi algorithm (SOVA) are combined to derive a new timing recovery (TR) scheme. We apply this scheme to wireless cellular communication system model that comprises of a raised cosine filter (RCF), a bit-interleaved turbo-coded multi-level modulation (BITMM) scheme and the channel is assumed to be memory-less. Furthermore, no clock signals are transmitted to the receiver contrary to the classical data aided (DA) models. This new model ensures that both the bandwidth and power of the communication system is conserved. However, the computational complexity of ideal turbo synchronization is increased by 50%. Several simulation tests on bit error rate (BER) and block error rate (BLER) versus low SNR reveal that the proposed iterative soft timing recovery (ISTR) scheme outperforms the conventional schemes.

Keywords: discrete polyphase matched filters, maximum likelihood estimators, soft timing phase estimation, wireless mobile systems.

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Authors: Asfar Ali Khan

Abstract:

Analytical expression for maximum power transfer through a transmission line limited by voltage stability has been formulated using exact representation of transmission line with ABCD parameters. The expression has been used for plotting PV curve at different power factors of a radial transmission line. Limiting values of reactive power have been obtained.

Keywords: Power Transfer, PV Curve, Voltage Stability.

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Authors: Huang Shengqin, Xiao Hong

Abstract:

LES with mixed subgrid-scale model has been used to simulate aerodynamic performance of hypersonic configuration. The simulation was conducted to replicate conditions and geometry of a model which has been previously tested. LES Model has been successful in predict pressure coefficient with the max error 1.5% besides afterbody. But in the high Mach number condition, it is poor in predict ability and product 12.5% error. The calculation error are mainly conducted by the distribution swirling. The fact of poor ability in the high Mach number and afterbody region indicated that the mixed subgrid-scale model should be improved in large eddied especially in hypersonic separate region. In the condition of attach and sideslip flight, the calculation results have waves. LES are successful in the prediction the pressure wave in hypersonic flow.

Keywords: Hypersonic, LES, mixed Subgrid-scale model, experiment.

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Authors: A. Moussouni, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

Abstract:

The purpose of this investigation is to relate the rain power and the overland flow power to soil erodibility to assess the effects of both parameters on soil erosion using variable rainfall intensity on remoulded agricultural soil. Six rainfall intensities were used to simulate the natural rainfall and are as follows: 12.4mm/h, 20.3mm/h, 28.6mm/h, 52mm/h, 73.5mm/h and 103mm/h. The results have shown that the relationship between overland flow power and rain power is best represented by a linear function (R2=0.99). As regards the relationships between soil erodibility factor and rain and overland flow powers, the evolution of both parameters with the erodibility factor follow a polynomial function with high coefficient of determination. From their coefficients of determination (R2=0.95) for rain power and (R2=0.96) for overland flow power, we can conclude that the flow has more power to detach particles than rain. This could be explained by the fact that the presence of particles, already detached by rain and transported by the flow, give the flow more weight and then contribute to the detachment of particles by collision.

Keywords: Laboratory experiments, soil erosion, flow power, erodibility, rainfall intensity.

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Authors: Guiheng Zhang, Wei Zhang, Jun Fu, Yudong Wang

Abstract:

A 900 MHz three-stage SiGe power amplifier (PA) with high power gain is presented in this paper. Volterra Series is applied to analyze nonlinearity sources of SiGe HBT device model clearly. Meanwhile, the influence of operating current to IMD3 is discussed. Then a β-helper current mirror bias circuit is applied to improve linearity, since the β-helper current mirror bias circuit can offer stable base biasing voltage. Meanwhile, it can also work as predistortion circuit when biasing voltages of three bias circuits are fine-tuned, by this way, the power gain and operating current of PA are optimized for best linearity. The three power stages which fabricated by 0.18 μm SiGe technology are bonded to the printed circuit board (PCB) to obtain impedances by Load-Pull system, then matching networks are done for best linearity with discrete passive components on PCB. The final measured three-stage PA exhibits 21.1 dBm of output power at 1 dB compression point (OP1dB) with power added efficiency (PAE) of 20.6% and 33 dB power gain under 3.3 V power supply voltage.

Keywords: High gain power amplifier, linearization bias circuit, SiGe HBT model, Volterra Series.

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Authors: E. Doğan, B. Kekezoğlu

Abstract:

Voltage level must be raised in order to deliver the produced energy to the consumption zones with less loss and less cost. Power transformers used to raise or lower voltage are important parts of the energy transmission system. Power transformers used in switchgear and power generation plants stay in human's intensive habitat zones as a result of expanding cities. Accordingly, noise levels produced by power transformers have begun more and more important and they have established itself as one of the research field. In this research, the noise cause on transformers has been investigated, it's causes has been examined and noise measurement techniques have been introduced. Examples of transformer noise test results are submitted and precautions to be taken were discussed for the purpose of decreasing of the noise which will occurred by transformers.

Keywords: Power transformer, noise measurement, core noise, load noise, fan-pump noise.

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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