Search results for: Hierarchical Bayesian framework
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1740

Search results for: Hierarchical Bayesian framework

1740 Spatial Econometric Approaches for Count Data: An Overview and New Directions

Authors: Paula Simões, Isabel Natário

Abstract:

This paper reviews a number of theoretical aspects for implementing an explicit spatial perspective in econometrics for modelling non-continuous data, in general, and count data, in particular. It provides an overview of the several spatial econometric approaches that are available to model data that are collected with reference to location in space, from the classical spatial econometrics approaches to the recent developments on spatial econometrics to model count data, in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Considerable attention is paid to the inferential framework, necessary for structural consistent spatial econometric count models, incorporating spatial lag autocorrelation, to the corresponding estimation and testing procedures for different assumptions, to the constrains and implications embedded in the various specifications in the literature. This review combines insights from the classical spatial econometrics literature as well as from hierarchical modeling and analysis of spatial data, in order to look for new possible directions on the processing of count data, in a spatial hierarchical Bayesian econometric context.

Keywords: Spatial data analysis, spatial econometrics, Bayesian hierarchical models, count data.

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1739 A Bayesian Hierarchical 13COBT to Correct Estimates Associated with a Delayed Gastric Emptying

Authors: Leslie J.C.Bluck, Sarah J.Jackson, Georgios Vlasakakis, Adrian Mander

Abstract:

The use of a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to interpret breath measurements obtained during a 13C Octanoic Breath Test (13COBT) is demonstrated. The statistical analysis was implemented using WinBUGS, a commercially available computer package for Bayesian inference. A hierarchical setting was adopted where poorly defined parameters associated with a delayed Gastric Emptying (GE) were able to "borrow" strength from global distributions. This is proved to be a sufficient tool to correct model's failures and data inconsistencies apparent in conventional analyses employing a Non-linear least squares technique (NLS). Direct comparison of two parameters describing gastric emptying ng ( tlag -lag phase, t1/ 2 -half emptying time) revealed a strong correlation between the two methods. Despite our large dataset ( n = 164 ), Bayesian modeling was fast and provided a successful fitting for all subjects. On the contrary, NLS failed to return acceptable estimates in cases where GE was delayed.

Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical analysis, 13COBT, Gastricemptying, WinBUGS.

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1738 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition Search Strategy for Quantitative Trait Loci in a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

Authors: Susan J. Simmons, Fang Fang, Qijun Fang, Karl Ricanek

Abstract:

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) experiments have yielded important biological and biochemical information necessary for understanding the relationship between genetic markers and quantitative traits. For many years, most QTL algorithms only allowed one observation per genotype. Recently, there has been an increasing demand for QTL algorithms that can accommodate more than one observation per genotypic distribution. The Bayesian hierarchical model is very flexible and can easily incorporate this information into the model. Herein a methodology is presented that uses a Bayesian hierarchical model to capture the complexity of the data. Furthermore, the Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition (MC3) algorithm is used to search and identify important markers. An extensive simulation study illustrates that the method captures the true QTL, even under nonnormal noise and up to 6 QTL.

Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model, Markov chain MonteCarlo model composition, quantitative trait loci.

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1737 Forecasting Models for Steel Demand Uncertainty Using Bayesian Methods

Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

Abstract:

 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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1736 Mining Implicit Knowledge to Predict Political Risk by Providing Novel Framework with Using Bayesian Network

Authors: Siavash Asadi Ghajarloo

Abstract:

Nowadays predicting political risk level of country has become a critical issue for investors who intend to achieve accurate information concerning stability of the business environments. Since, most of the times investors are layman and nonprofessional IT personnel; this paper aims to propose a framework named GECR in order to help nonexpert persons to discover political risk stability across time based on the political news and events. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian Networks approach was utilized for 186 political news of Pakistan as sample dataset. Bayesian Networks as an artificial intelligence approach has been employed in presented framework, since this is a powerful technique that can be applied to model uncertain domains. The results showed that our framework along with Bayesian Networks as decision support tool, predicted the political risk level with a high degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Data mining, GECRframework, Predicting political risk.

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1735 Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for Infrared Face Recognition

Authors: Moulay A. Akhloufi, Abdelhakim Bendada

Abstract:

Face recognition in the infrared spectrum has attracted a lot of interest in recent years. Many of the techniques used in infrared are based on their visible counterpart, especially linear techniques like PCA and LDA. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian framework for face recognition in the infrared spectrum. In the infrared spectrum, variations can occur between face images of the same individual due to pose, metabolic, time changes, etc. Bayesian approaches permit to reduce intrapersonal variation, thus making them very interesting for infrared face recognition. This framework is compared with classical linear techniques. Non linear techniques we developed recently for infrared face recognition are also presented and compared to the Bayesian face recognition framework. A new approach for infrared face extraction based on SVM is introduced. Experimental results show that the Bayesian technique is promising and lead to interesting results in the infrared spectrum when a sufficient number of face images is used in an intrapersonal learning process.

Keywords: Face recognition, biometrics, probabilistic imageprocessing, infrared imaging.

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1734 Human Body Configuration using Bayesian Model

Authors: Rui. Zhang, Yiming. Pi

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel approach for human Body configuration based on the Silhouette. We propose to address this problem under the Bayesian framework. We use an effective Model based MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) method to solve the configuration problem, in which the best configuration could be defined as MAP (maximize a posteriori probability) in Bayesian model. This model based MCMC utilizes the human body model to drive the MCMC sampling from the solution space. It converses the original high dimension space into a restricted sub-space constructed by the human model and uses a hybrid sampling algorithm. We choose an explicit human model and carefully select the likelihood functions to represent the best configuration solution. The experiments show that this method could get an accurate configuration and timesaving for different human from multi-views.

Keywords: Bayesian framework, MCMC, model based, human body configuration.

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1733 Risk Factors for Defective Autoparts Products Using Bayesian Method in Poisson Generalized Linear Mixed Model

Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

Abstract:

This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: Defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), Risk factors.

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1732 Optimal Bayesian Control of the Proportion of Defectives in a Manufacturing Process

Authors: Viliam Makis, Farnoosh Naderkhani, Leila Jafari

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a model and an algorithm for the calculation of the optimal control limit, average cost, sample size, and the sampling interval for an optimal Bayesian chart to control the proportion of defective items produced using a semi-Markov decision process approach. Traditional p-chart has been widely used for controlling the proportion of defectives in various kinds of production processes for many years. It is well known that traditional non-Bayesian charts are not optimal, but very few optimal Bayesian control charts have been developed in the literature, mostly considering finite horizon. The objective of this paper is to develop a fast computational algorithm to obtain the optimal parameters of a Bayesian p-chart. The decision problem is formulated in the partially observable framework and the developed algorithm is illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Bayesian control chart, semi-Markov decision process, quality control, partially observable process.

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1731 Bayesian Meta-Analysis to Account for Heterogeneity in Studies Relating Life Events to Disease

Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

Abstract:

Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location, and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance and within study variance, and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: Random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation.

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1730 Robust Image Transmission Over Time-varying Channels using Hierarchical Joint Source Channel Coding

Authors: Hatem. Elmeddeb, Noureddine, Hamdi, Ammar. Bouallègue

Abstract:

In this paper, a joint source-channel coding (JSCC) scheme for time-varying channels is presented. The proposed scheme uses hierarchical framework for both source encoder and transmission via QAM modulation. Hierarchical joint source channel codes with hierarchical QAM constellations are designed to track the channel variations which yields to a higher throughput by adapting certain parameters of the receiver to the channel variation. We consider the problem of still image transmission over time-varying channels with channel state information (CSI) available at 1) receiver only and 2) both transmitter and receiver being informed about the state of the channel. We describe an algorithm that optimizes hierarchical source codebooks by minimizing the distortion due to source quantizer and channel impairments. Simulation results, based on image representation, show that, the proposed hierarchical system outperforms the conventional schemes based on a single-modulator and channel optimized source coding.

Keywords: Channel-optimized VQ (COVQ), joint optimization, QAM, hierarchical systems.

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1729 Integrating Low and High Level Object Recognition Steps

Authors: András Barta, István Vajk

Abstract:

In pattern recognition applications the low level segmentation and the high level object recognition are generally considered as two separate steps. The paper presents a method that bridges the gap between the low and the high level object recognition. It is based on a Bayesian network representation and network propagation algorithm. At the low level it uses hierarchical structure of quadratic spline wavelet image bases. The method is demonstrated for a simple circuit diagram component identification problem.

Keywords: Object recognition, Bayesian network, Wavelets, Document processing.

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1728 Integrating Low and High Level Object Recognition Steps by Probabilistic Networks

Authors: András Barta, István Vajk

Abstract:

In pattern recognition applications the low level segmentation and the high level object recognition are generally considered as two separate steps. The paper presents a method that bridges the gap between the low and the high level object recognition. It is based on a Bayesian network representation and network propagation algorithm. At the low level it uses hierarchical structure of quadratic spline wavelet image bases. The method is demonstrated for a simple circuit diagram component identification problem.

Keywords: Object recognition, Bayesian network, Wavelets, Document processing.

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1727 Multi-Label Hierarchical Classification for Protein Function Prediction

Authors: Helyane B. Borges, Julio Cesar Nievola

Abstract:

Hierarchical classification is a problem with applications in many areas as protein function prediction where the dates are hierarchically structured. Therefore, it is necessary the development of algorithms able to induce hierarchical classification models. This paper presents experimenters using the algorithm for hierarchical classification called Multi-label Hierarchical Classification using a Competitive Neural Network (MHC-CNN). It was tested in ten datasets the Gene Ontology (GO) Cellular Component Domain. The results are compared with the Clus-HMC and Clus-HSC using the hF-Measure.

Keywords: Hierarchical Classification, Competitive Neural Network, Global Classifier.

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1726 Choosing Search Algorithms in Bayesian Optimization Algorithm

Authors: Hao Wu, Jonathan L. Shapiro

Abstract:

The Bayesian Optimization Algorithm (BOA) is an algorithm based on the estimation of distributions. It uses techniques from modeling data by Bayesian networks to estimating the joint distribution of promising solutions. To obtain the structure of Bayesian network, different search algorithms can be used. The key point that BOA addresses is whether the constructed Bayesian network could generate new and useful solutions (strings), which could lead the algorithm in the right direction to solve the problem. Undoubtedly, this ability is a crucial factor of the efficiency of BOA. Varied search algorithms can be used in BOA, but their performances are different. For choosing better ones, certain suitable method to present their ability difference is needed. In this paper, a greedy search algorithm and a stochastic search algorithm are used in BOA to solve certain optimization problem. A method using Kullback-Leibler (KL) Divergence to reflect their difference is described.

Keywords: Bayesian optimization algorithm, greedy search, KL divergence, stochastic search.

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1725 Meta-Learning for Hierarchical Classification and Applications in Bioinformatics

Authors: Fabio Fabris, Alex A. Freitas

Abstract:

Hierarchical classification is a special type of classification task where the class labels are organised into a hierarchy, with more generic class labels being ancestors of more specific ones. Meta-learning for classification-algorithm recommendation consists of recommending to the user a classification algorithm, from a pool of candidate algorithms, for a dataset, based on the past performance of the candidate algorithms in other datasets. Meta-learning is normally used in conventional, non-hierarchical classification. By contrast, this paper proposes a meta-learning approach for more challenging task of hierarchical classification, and evaluates it in a large number of bioinformatics datasets. Hierarchical classification is especially relevant for bioinformatics problems, as protein and gene functions tend to be organised into a hierarchy of class labels. This work proposes meta-learning approach for recommending the best hierarchical classification algorithm to a hierarchical classification dataset. This work’s contributions are: 1) proposing an algorithm for splitting hierarchical datasets into new datasets to increase the number of meta-instances, 2) proposing meta-features for hierarchical classification, and 3) interpreting decision-tree meta-models for hierarchical classification algorithm recommendation.

Keywords: Algorithm recommendation, meta-learning, bioinformatics, hierarchical classification.

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1724 An Optimal Bayesian Maintenance Policy for a Partially Observable System Subject to Two Failure Modes

Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control.

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1723 Probabilistic Approach of Dealing with Uncertainties in Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems and Situation Awareness for Multi-agent Systems

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence.

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1722 A General Framework for Knowledge Discovery Using High Performance Machine Learning Algorithms

Authors: S. Nandagopalan, N. Pradeep

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to propose a general framework for storing, analyzing, and extracting knowledge from two-dimensional echocardiographic images, color Doppler images, non-medical images, and general data sets. A number of high performance data mining algorithms have been used to carry out this task. Our framework encompasses four layers namely physical storage, object identification, knowledge discovery, user level. Techniques such as active contour model to identify the cardiac chambers, pixel classification to segment the color Doppler echo image, universal model for image retrieval, Bayesian method for classification, parallel algorithms for image segmentation, etc., were employed. Using the feature vector database that have been efficiently constructed, one can perform various data mining tasks like clustering, classification, etc. with efficient algorithms along with image mining given a query image. All these facilities are included in the framework that is supported by state-of-the-art user interface (UI). The algorithms were tested with actual patient data and Coral image database and the results show that their performance is better than the results reported already.

Keywords: Active Contour, Bayesian, Echocardiographic image, Feature vector.

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1721 Scaling up Detection Rates and Reducing False Positives in Intrusion Detection using NBTree

Authors: Dewan Md. Farid, Nguyen Huu Hoa, Jerome Darmont, Nouria Harbi, Mohammad Zahidur Rahman

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new learning algorithm for anomaly based network intrusion detection using improved self adaptive naïve Bayesian tree (NBTree), which induces a hybrid of decision tree and naïve Bayesian classifier. The proposed approach scales up the balance detections for different attack types and keeps the false positives at acceptable level in intrusion detection. In complex and dynamic large intrusion detection dataset, the detection accuracy of naïve Bayesian classifier does not scale up as well as decision tree. It has been successfully tested in other problem domains that naïve Bayesian tree improves the classification rates in large dataset. In naïve Bayesian tree nodes contain and split as regular decision-trees, but the leaves contain naïve Bayesian classifiers. The experimental results on KDD99 benchmark network intrusion detection dataset demonstrate that this new approach scales up the detection rates for different attack types and reduces false positives in network intrusion detection.

Keywords: Detection rates, false positives, network intrusiondetection, naïve Bayesian tree.

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1720 Bayesian Decision Approach to Protection on the Flood Event in Upper Ayeyarwady River, Myanmar

Authors: Min Min Swe Zin

Abstract:

This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.

Keywords: Bayesian decision method, conditional binomial distribution, minimax rules, prior beta distribution.

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1719 Hierarchical Clustering Algorithms in Data Mining

Authors: Z. Abdullah, A. R. Hamdan

Abstract:

Clustering is a process of grouping objects and data into groups of clusters to ensure that data objects from the same cluster are identical to each other. Clustering algorithms in one of the area in data mining and it can be classified into partition, hierarchical, density based and grid based. Therefore, in this paper we do survey and review four major hierarchical clustering algorithms called CURE, ROCK, CHAMELEON and BIRCH. The obtained state of the art of these algorithms will help in eliminating the current problems as well as deriving more robust and scalable algorithms for clustering.

Keywords: Clustering, method, algorithm, hierarchical, survey.

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1718 A Review: Comparative Study of Enhanced Hierarchical Clustering Protocols in WSN

Authors: M. Sangeetha, A. Sabari, T. Shanthi Priya

Abstract:

Recent advances in wireless networking technologies introduce several energy aware routing protocols in sensor networks. Such protocols aim to extend the lifetime of network by reducing the energy consumption of nodes. Many researchers are looking for certain challenges that are predominant in the grounds of energy consumption. One such protocol that addresses this energy consumption issue is ‘Cluster based hierarchical routing protocol’. In this paper, we intend to discuss some of the major hierarchical routing protocols adhering towards sensor networks. Furthermore, we examine and compare several aspects and characteristics of few widely explored hierarchical clustering protocols, and its operations in wireless sensor networks (WSN). This paper also presents a discussion on the future research topics and the challenges of hierarchical clustering in WSNs.

Keywords: Clustering, Energy Efficiency, Hierarchical routing, Wireless sensor networks.

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1717 A Bayesian Kernel for the Prediction of Protein- Protein Interactions

Authors: Hany Alashwal, Safaai Deris, Razib M. Othman

Abstract:

Understanding proteins functions is a major goal in the post-genomic era. Proteins usually work in context of other proteins and rarely function alone. Therefore, it is highly relevant to study the interaction partners of a protein in order to understand its function. Machine learning techniques have been widely applied to predict protein-protein interactions. Kernel functions play an important role for a successful machine learning technique. Choosing the appropriate kernel function can lead to a better accuracy in a binary classifier such as the support vector machines. In this paper, we describe a Bayesian kernel for the support vector machine to predict protein-protein interactions. The use of Bayesian kernel can improve the classifier performance by incorporating the probability characteristic of the available experimental protein-protein interactions data that were compiled from different sources. In addition, the probabilistic output from the Bayesian kernel can assist biologists to conduct more research on the highly predicted interactions. The results show that the accuracy of the classifier has been improved using the Bayesian kernel compared to the standard SVM kernels. These results imply that protein-protein interaction can be predicted using Bayesian kernel with better accuracy compared to the standard SVM kernels.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, Protein-protein interactions, Bayesian Kernel, Support Vector Machines.

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1716 Knowledge Discovery from Production Databases for Hierarchical Process Control

Authors: Pavol Tanuska, Pavel Vazan, Michal Kebisek, Dominika Jurovata

Abstract:

The paper gives the results of the project that was oriented on the usage of knowledge discoveries from production systems for needs of the hierarchical process control. One of the main project goals was the proposal of knowledge discovery model for process control. Specifics data mining methods and techniques was used for defined problems of the process control. The gained knowledge was used on the real production system thus the proposed solution has been verified. The paper documents how is possible to apply the new discovery knowledge to use in the real hierarchical process control. There are specified the opportunities for application of the proposed knowledge discovery model for hierarchical process control.

Keywords: Hierarchical process control, knowledge discovery from databases, neural network.

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1715 Development of an Automatic Calibration Framework for Hydrologic Modelling Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

Abstract:

Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: Automatic calibration framework, approximate Bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform.

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1714 Production Throughput Modeling under Five Uncertain Variables Using Bayesian Inference

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid B. Ali, Loh Wei Ping

Abstract:

Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Uncertainty modeling, Monte Carlo Markov chain, Gibbs sampling, Production throughput

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1713 Bayesian Deep Learning Algorithms for Classifying COVID-19 Images

Authors: I. Oloyede

Abstract:

The study investigates the accuracy and loss of deep learning algorithms with the set of coronavirus (COVID-19) images dataset by comparing Bayesian convolutional neural network and traditional convolutional neural network in low dimensional dataset. 50 sets of X-ray images out of which 25 were COVID-19 and the remaining 20 were normal, twenty images were set as training while five were set as validation that were used to ascertained the accuracy of the model. The study found out that Bayesian convolution neural network outperformed conventional neural network at low dimensional dataset that could have exhibited under fitting. The study therefore recommended Bayesian Convolutional neural network (BCNN) for android apps in computer vision for image detection.

Keywords: BCNN, CNN, Images, COVID-19, Deep Learning.

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1712 Experimental Evaluation of Mobility Anchor Point Selection Scheme in Hierarchical Mobile IPv6

Authors: Zulkeflee Kusin, Mohamad Shanudin Zakaria

Abstract:

Hierarchical Mobile IPv6 (HMIPv6) was designed to support IP micro-mobility management in the Next Generation Networks (NGN) framework. The main design behind this protocol is the usage of Mobility Anchor Point (MAP) located at any level router of network to support hierarchical mobility management. However, the distance MAP selection in HMIPv6 causes MAP overloaded and increase frequent binding update as the network grows. Therefore, to address the issue in designing MAP selection scheme, we propose a dynamic load control mechanism integrates with a speed detection mechanism (DMS-DLC). From the experimental results we obtain that the proposed scheme gives better distribution in MAP load and increase handover speed.

Keywords: Dynamic load control, HMIPv6, Mobility AnchorPoint, MAP selection scheme

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1711 Genetic Programming Approach to Hierarchical Production Rule Discovery

Authors: Basheer M. Al-Maqaleh, Kamal K. Bharadwaj

Abstract:

Automated discovery of hierarchical structures in large data sets has been an active research area in the recent past. This paper focuses on the issue of mining generalized rules with crisp hierarchical structure using Genetic Programming (GP) approach to knowledge discovery. The post-processing scheme presented in this work uses flat rules as initial individuals of GP and discovers hierarchical structure. Suitable genetic operators are proposed for the suggested encoding. Based on the Subsumption Matrix(SM), an appropriate fitness function is suggested. Finally, Hierarchical Production Rules (HPRs) are generated from the discovered hierarchy. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Genetic Programming, Hierarchy, Knowledge Discovery in Database, Subsumption Matrix.

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