Search results for: Libyan oil and gas scenario

Authors: Mustarakh Gelfi, Poonam Taneja, Tiedo Vellinga, Delon Hamonangan

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The initial masterplan of New Priok in the Port of Tanjung Priok was developed in 2012 is being updated to cater to new developments and new demands. In the new masterplan (2017), Phase II of development will start from 2035-onwards, depending on the future conditions. This study is about creating a robust masterplan for Phase II, which will remain functional under future uncertainties. The methodology applied in this study is scenario-based planning in the framework of Adaptive Port Planning (APP). Scenario-based planning helps to open up the perspective of the future as a horizon of possibilities. The scenarios are built around two major uncertainties in a 2x2 matrix approach. The two major uncertainties for New Priok port are economics and sustainability awareness. The outcome is four plausible scenarios: Green Port, Business As Usual, Moderate Expansion, and No Expansion. Terminal needs in each scenario are analyzed through traffic analysis and identifying the key cargos and commodities. In conclusion, this study gives the wide perspective for Port of Tanjung Priok for the planning Phase II of the development. The port has to realize that uncertainties persevere and are very likely to influence the decision making as to the future layouts. Instead of ignoring uncertainty, the port needs to make the action plans to deal with these uncertainties.

Keywords: Indonesia Port, port's layout, port planning, scenario-based planning

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Authors: Marina Charalambous, Phivos Phylactou, Thekla Elriz, Loukia Psychogios, Jean-Marie Annoni

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Background: Evidence-based practices for the evaluation and treatment of people with aphasia (PWA) in Greek are mainly impairment-based. Functional and multimodal communication is usually under assessed and neglected by clinicians. This study explores the adaptation and psychometric testing of the Greek (GR) version of The Scenario Test. The Scenario Test assesses the everyday functional communication of PWA in an interactive multimodal communication setting with the support of an active communication facilitator. Aims: To define the reliability and validity of The Scenario Test GR and discuss its clinical value. Methods & Procedures: The Scenario Test-GR was administered to 54 people with chronic stroke (6+ months post-stroke): 32 PWA and 22 people with stroke without aphasia. Participants were recruited from Greece and Cyprus. All measures were performed in an interview format. Standard psychometric criteria were applied to evaluate reliability (internal consistency, test-retest, and interrater reliability) and validity (construct and known – groups validity) of the Scenario Test GR. Video analysis was performed for the qualitative examination of the communication modes used. Outcomes & Results: The Scenario Test-GR shows high levels of reliability and validity. High scores of internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = .95), test-retest reliability (ICC = .99), and interrater reliability (ICC = .99) were found. Interrater agreement in scores on individual items fell between good and excellent levels of agreement. Correlations with a tool measuring language function in aphasia (the Aphasia Severity Rating Scale of the Boston Diagnostic Aphasia Examination), a measure of functional communication (the Communicative Effectiveness Index), and two instruments examining the psychosocial impact of aphasia (the Stroke and Aphasia Quality of Life questionnaire and the Aphasia Impact Questionnaire) revealed good convergent validity (all ps< .05). Results showed good known – groups validity (Mann-Whitney U = 96.5, p < .001), with significantly higher scores for participants without aphasia compared to those with aphasia. Conclusions: The psychometric qualities of The Scenario Test-GR support the reliability and validity of the tool for the assessment of functional communication for Greek-speaking PWA. The Scenario Test-GR can be used to assess multimodal functional communication, orient aphasia rehabilitation goal setting towards the activity and participation level, and be used as an outcome measure of everyday communication. Future studies will focus on the measurement of sensitivity to change in PWA with severe non-fluent aphasia.

Keywords: the scenario test GR, functional communication assessment, people with aphasia (PWA), tool validation

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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Japan set the goal of 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. To consider countermeasures for reducing GHG emission, the production estimation of energy intensive materials, such as steel, is essential. About 50% of steel production is exported in Japan, so it is necessary to consider steel production including export. Steel productions from 2005-2050 in Japan were estimated under various global assumptions based on combination of scenarios such as goods trade scenarios and steel making process selection scenarios. Process selection scenarios decide volume of steel production by process (basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace) with considering steel consumption projection, supply-demand balance of steel, and scrap surplus. The range of steel production by process was analyzed. Maximum steel production was estimated under the scenario which consumes scrap in domestic steel production at maximum level. In 2035, steel production reaches 149 million ton because of increase in electric arc furnace steel. However, it decreases towards 2050 and amounts to 120 million ton, which is almost same as a current level. Minimum steel production is under the scenario which assumes technology progress in steel making and supply-demand balance consideration in each region. Steel production decreases from base year and is 44 million ton in 2050.

Keywords: goods trade scenario, steel making process selection scenario, steel production, global warming

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Authors: Juliana C. Alencar, Monica Ferreira do Amaral Porto

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The blue-green infrastructure in recent years has been pointed out as a possibility to increase the environmental quality of watersheds. The regulation ecosystem services brought by these areas are many, such as the improvement of the air quality of the air, water, soil, microclimate, besides helping to control the peak flows and to promote the quality of life of the population. This study proposes a blue-green infrastructure scenario for the Jaguaré watershed, located in the western zone of the São Paulo city in Brazil. Based on the proposed scenario, it was verified the impact of the adoption of the blue and green infrastructure in the control of the peak flow of the basin, the benefits for the avifauna that are also reflected in the flora and finally, the quantification of the regulation ecosystem services brought by the adoption of the scenario proposed. A survey of existing green areas and potential areas for expansion and connection of these areas to form a network in the watershed was carried out. Based on this proposed new network of green areas, the peak flow for the proposed scenario was calculated with the help of software, ABC6. Finally, a survey of the ecosystem services contemplated in the proposed scenario was made. It was possible to conclude that the blue and green infrastructure would provide several regulation ecosystem services for the watershed, such as the control of the peak flow, the connection frame between the forest fragments that promoted the environmental enrichment of these fragments, improvement of the microclimate and the provision of leisure areas for the population.

Keywords: green and blue infrastructure, sustainable drainage, urban waters, ecosystem services

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Authors: Wen Huei Chou, Yi-Ting Chen

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Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) often struggle with social interactions and communication. It is challenging for them to understand social cues such as facial expressions, body language, and tone of voice in social settings, leading to social conflicts and misunderstandings. Over time, feelings of frustration and anxiety can make them reluctant to engage in social situations and worsen their communication barriers. This study focused on children with autism who also experience social anxiety. Through focus group interviews with parents of children with autism and occupational therapists, it explores the reasons and scenarios behind the development of social anxiety in these children. Social scenario stories and interactive applications tailored for children with autism were designed and developed. In addition, working with the educational robots, coping strategies for various emotional situations were elaborated on, and children were helped to understand their emotions.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, social anxiety, robot, social scenario story, interactive applications

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Authors: Mohammad A. Alia

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With the rapid evolution of the internet applications, cloud computing becomes one of today’s hottest research areas due to its ability to reduce costs associated with computing. Cloud is, therefore, increasing flexibility and scalability for computing services in the internet. Cloud computing is Internet based computing due to shared resources and information which are dynamically delivered to consumers. As cloud computing share resources via the open network, hence cloud outsourcing is vulnerable to attack. Therefore, this paper will explore data security of cloud computing by implementing chaotic cryptography. The proposal scenario develops a problem transformation technique that enables customers to secretly transform their information. This work proposes the chaotic cryptographic algorithms have been applied to enhance the security of the cloud computing accessibility. However, the proposed scenario is secure, easy and straightforward process. The chaotic encryption and digital signature systems ensure the security of the proposed scenario. Though, the choice of the key size becomes crucial to prevent a brute force attack.

Keywords: chaos, cloud computing, security, cryptography

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Authors: Ilham Priadythama, Pringgo Widyo Laksono, Agung Pamungkas

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Myoelectric is prosthetic, flexible, and offered industrial application has been highly developed and widely used. Myoelectric hand use myoelectric signal from muscle to activate and control the membrane part of hand. Commonly myoelectric signal is detected on human arm from skin surface. So that it only small magnitude signal captured. Detecting myoelectric signal on the skin surface takes proper and consistent procedure. This paper provides preliminary study of electrodes position which gives best signal strength for five basic grasping. Two-position scenario used to place three channel electrodes set. A bi-potential amplifier based on AD620 used to amplify the signal. Finally, the signal was analyzed using DSSF3 software. From this study, we found that grasp type was stronger using first scenario electrode placement while the rest type better with another scenario.

Keywords: myoelectric signal, basic grasp, DSSF3, electrode, bi-potential amplifier

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Authors: John Okanda Okwaro

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Carbon (IV) oxide (CO₂) is emitted majorly from fossil fuel combustion and industrial production. The sources of interest of carbon (IV) oxide in the study area are mining activities, transport systems, and industrial processes. This study is aimed at building models that will help in monitoring the emissions within the study area. Three scenarios were discussed, namely: pessimistic scenario, business-as-usual scenario, and optimistic scenario. The result showed that there was a reduction in carbon dioxide concentration by approximately 50.5 ppm between March 2020 and January 2021 inclusive. This is majorly due to reduced human activities that led to decreased consumption of energy. Also, the CO₂ concentration trend follows the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) path. From the models, the pessimistic, business-as-usual, and optimistic scenarios give CO₂ concentration of about 545.9 ppm, 408.1 ppm, and 360.1 ppm, respectively, on December 31st, 2021. This research helps paint the picture to the policymakers of the relationship between energy sources and CO₂ emissions. Since the reduction in CO₂ emission was due to decreased use of fossil fuel as there was a decrease in economic activities, then if Kenya relies more on green energy than fossil fuel in the post-COVID-19 period, there will be more CO₂ emission reduction. That is, the CO₂ concentration trend is likely to follow the optimistic scenario path, hence a reduction in CO₂ concentration of about 48 ppm by the end of the year 2021. This research recommends investment in solar energy by energy-intensive companies, mine machinery and equipment maintenance, investment in electric vehicles, and doubling tree planting efforts to achieve the 10% cover.

Keywords: forecasting, greenhouse gas, green energy, hierarchical data format

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Authors: Tarek Sabri Duzan

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Knowledge of the magnitude of Geo-pressures (Pore, Fracture & Over-burden pressures) is vital especially during drilling, completions, stimulations, Enhance Oil Recovery. Many times problems, like lost circulation could have been avoided if techniques for calculating Geo-pressures had been employed in the well planning, mud weight plan, and casing design. In this paper, we focused on the relationships between Geo-pressures and wave velocities (P-Wave (Vp) and S-wave (Vs)) in shallow Libyan carbonate reservoir in the western part of the Sirte Basin (Dahra F-Area). The data used in this report was collected from four new wells recently drilled. Those wells were scattered throughout the interested reservoir as shown in figure-1. The data used in this work are bulk density, Formation Mult -Tester (FMT) results and Acoustic wave velocities. Furthermore, Eaton Method is the most common equation used in the world, therefore this equation has been used to calculate Fracture pressure for all wells using dynamic Poisson ratio calculated by using acoustic wave velocities, FMT results for pore pressure, Overburden pressure estimated by using bulk density. Upon data analysis, it has been found that there is a linear relationship between Geo-pressures (Pore, Fracture & Over-Burden pressures) and wave velocities ratio (Vp/Vs). However, the relationship was not clear in the high-pressure area, as shown in figure-10. Therefore, it is recommended to use the output relationship utilizing the new seismic data for shallow carbonate reservoir to predict the Geo-pressures for future oil operations. More data can be collected from the high-pressure zone to investigate more about this area.

Keywords: bulk density, formation mult-tester (FMT) results, acoustic wave, carbonate shalow reservoir, d/jfield velocities

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Authors: Shih-Ting Yang, Chih-Yun Lin, Ming-Yu Li, Jhong-Ting Syue, Wei-Ming Huang

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Global positioning system (GPS) has become increasing precise in recent years, and the location-based service (LBS) has developed rapidly. Take the example of finding a parking lot (such as Parking apps). The location-based service can offer immediate information about a nearby parking lot, including the information about remaining parking spaces. However, it cannot provide expected search results according to the requirement situations of users. For that reason, this paper develops a “Location-based Search Approach according to Users’ Application Scenario” according to the location-based search and demand determination to help users obtain the information consistent with their requirements. The “Location-based Search Approach based on Users’ Application Scenario” of this paper consists of one mechanism and three kernel modules. First, in the Information Pre-processing Mechanism (IPM), this paper uses the cosine theorem to categorize the locations of users. Then, in the Information Category Evaluation Module (ICEM), the kNN (k-Nearest Neighbor) is employed to classify the browsing records of users. After that, in the Information Volume Level Determination Module (IVLDM), this paper makes a comparison between the number of users’ clicking the information at different locations and the average number of users’ clicking the information at a specific location, so as to evaluate the urgency of demand; then, the two-dimensional space is used to estimate the application situations of users. For the last step, in the Location-based Search Module (LBSM), this paper compares all search results and the average number of characters of the search results, categorizes the search results with the Manhattan Distance, and selects the results according to the application scenario of users. Additionally, this paper develops a Web-based system according to the methodology to demonstrate practical application of this paper. The application scenario-based estimate and the location-based search are used to evaluate the type and abundance of the information expected by the public at specific location, so that information demanders can obtain the information consistent with their application situations at specific location.

Keywords: data mining, knowledge management, location-based service, user application scenario

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Authors: Khalid Alshaikh

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In recent years, leadership, Corporate Governance (CG) and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) have been under scrutiny in the Libyan society. Scholars and institutions have commenced investigating the possible resolutions they can arrange to alleviate the economic, social and environmental problems the war has produced. Thus far, these constructs requisite an in-depth reinvestigation, reconceptualization, and analysis to clearly reconstruct their rules and regulations. With the demise of Qaddafi’s regime, levels, degrees, and efforts to apply CG regulations have varied in public and private commercial banks. CSR is a new organizational culture that still designs its route within these financial institutions. Detaching itself from any notion of dictatorship and autocratic traits, leadership counts on transformational and transactional styles. Therefore, this paper investigates the extent to which the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) redefine these concepts and how they entrench CSR within the framework of CG. The research methodology used both public and private banks as a case study and qualitative research to interview ten Board of Directors (BoDs) and eleven Chief executive managers to explore how leadership, CG, and CSR are defined and how leadership integrates CSR into CG structures. The findings suggest that the CG framework in Libya still requires great efforts to be developed. Full CG code implementation appears daunting. Also, the CSR is still influenced by the power of religion. Nevertheless, the Islamic perspective is more consistent with the social contract concept of the CSR. The Libyan commercial banks do not solely focus on the economic side of maximizing profits, but also concentrate on its morality. The issue is that CSR activities are not enough to achieve good charity publicly and needs strategies to address major social issues. Moreover, leadership is more transformational and transactional and endeavors to make economic, social and environmental changes, but these changes are curtailed by tradition and traditional values dominating the Libyan social life where religious and tribal practices establish the relationship between leaders and their subordinates. Finally, the findings reveal that transformational and transactional leadership styles encourage the incorporation of CSR into the CG regulations. The boardroom and executive management have such a particular role in flagging up how embedded corporate Social responsibility is in organizational culture across the commercial banks, yet it is still important that the BoDs and CEOs need to do much more to embed corporate social responsibility through their core functions. They need to boost their standing to be more influential and make sure that the right discussions about CSR happen with the right stakeholders involved.

Keywords: board of directors, chief executive officers, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility

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Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Kafait Ullah, Kashif Imran, Arshad Mahmood, Maarten Arentsen

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Poor planning and governance in the power sector of Pakistan have generated several issues ranging from gradual reliance on thermal-based expensive energy mix, supply shortages, unrestricted demand, subsidization, inefficiencies at different levels of the value chain and resultantly, the circular debt. This situation in the power sector has also hampered the growth of allied economic sectors. This study uses the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system for electricity modelling of Pakistan from the period of 2016 to 2040. The study has first time in Pakistan forecasted the electricity demand at the provincial level. At the supply side, five scenarios Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Coal Scenario (CS), Gas Scenario (GS), Nuclear Scenario (NS) and Renewable Scenario (RS) have been analyzed based on the techno-economic and environmental parameters. The study has also included environmental externality costs for evaluating the actual costs and benefits of different scenarios. Contrary to the expectations, RS has a lower output than even BAUS. The study has concluded that the generation from RS has five times lesser costs than BAUS, CS, and GS. NS can also be an alternative for the sustainable future of Pakistan. Generation from imported coal is not a good option, however, indigenous coal with clean coal technologies should be promoted. This paper proposes energy planners of the country to devise incentives for the utilization of indigenous energy resources including renewables on priority and then clean coal to reduce the energy crises of Pakistan.

Keywords: economic evaluation, externality cost, penetration of renewable energy, regional electricity supply-demand planning

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Authors: A. Hol

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Even in the well developed countries like Australia, Small to Medium Farmers do not often have the power over the market prices as they are more often than not set by the farming agents. This in turn creates problems as farmers only get to know for how much their produce has been sold for by the agents three to four weeks after the sale has taken the place. To see and identify if and how peri-urban Sydney farmers could be assisted, carefully selected group of peri-urban Sydney farmers of the stone fruit has been interviewed. Following the case based interviews collected data was analyzed in detail using the Scenario Based Transformation principles. Analyzed data was then used to create a most common transformation case. The case identified that a mobile web based system could be develop so that framers can monitor agent earnings and in turn gain more power over the markets. It is expected that after the system has been in action for six months to a year, farmers will become empowered and they will gain means to monitor the market and negotiate agent prices.

Keywords: mobile applications, farming, scenario-based analysis, scenario-based transformation, user empowerment

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Authors: P. Agnivesh, P. V. Ponambala Moorthi

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Evolution of information modelling leads to the visualisation of well-organized built environment. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is considered as evolution in the off-site construction which essentially enhances and controls the present scenario of on-site construction paradigms. Promptness, sustainability and security are considered as the important characteristics of the building information modelling. Projects that uses BIM are tied firmly by technology but distributed organizationally. This allows different team members in the project to associate and integrate the works and work flows. This will in turn improve the efficiency of work breakdown structure. Internationally BIM had been accepted as modern computer aided way of information sharing by construction industry for efficient way of manipulation in order to avoid the on-site misperceptions. Even though, in developing countries like India BIM is in the phase of start and requires lot of mandates and policies to be brought about by the government for its widespread implementations. This paper reviews the current scenario of BIM worldwide and in India and suggests for the improved implementation of building modelling for Indian policy condition.

Keywords: building information modelling, Indian polity, information modelling, information sharing, mandates and policies, sustainability.

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Fatemeh Mohajeri

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Road traffic accidents lead to a higher rate of death and injury, especially in vulnerable road users such as pedestrians. Improving the safety of facilities for pedestrians is a major concern for policymakers because of the high number of pedestrian fatalities and direct and indirect costs which are imposed to the society. This study focuses on the idea of determining the willingness to pay of pedestrians for increasing their safety while crossing the street. In this study, three different scenarios including crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities, crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities and installing a pedestrian traffic light and constructing a pedestrian bridge with escalator are presented. The research was conducted based on stated preferences method. The required data were collected from a questionnaire that consisted of three parts: pedestrian’s demographic characteristics, travel characteristics and scenarios. Four different payment amounts are presented for each scenario and a logit model has been built for each proposed payment. The results show that sex, age, education, average household income and individual salary have significant effect on choosing a scenario. Among the policies that have been mentioned through the questionnaire scenarios, the scenario of crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities and installing a traffic lights is the most frequent, with willingness to pay 10,000 Rials and the scenario of crossing the street with a zebra crossing with a willingness to pay 100,000 Rials having the least frequency. For all scenarios, as the payment is increasing, the willingness to pay decreases.

Keywords: pedestrians, willingness to pay, safety, immunization

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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World GHG emissions should be reduced 50% by 2050 compared with 1990 level. CO2 emission reduction from steel sector, an energy-intensive sector, is essential. To estimate CO2 emission from steel sector in the world, estimation of steel production is required. The world steel production by process is estimated during the period of 2005-2050. The world is divided into aggregated 35 regions. For a steel making process, two kinds of processes are considered; basic oxygen furnace (BOF) and electric arc furnace (EAF). Steel production by process in each region is decided based on a current production capacity, supply-demand balance of steel and scrap, technology innovation of steel making, steel consumption projection, and goods trade. World steel production under moderate countermeasure scenario in 2050 increases by 1.3 times compared with that in 2012. When domestic scrap recycling is promoted, steel production in developed regions increases about 1.5 times. The share in developed regions changes from 34 %(2012) to about 40%(2050). This is because developed regions are main suppliers of scrap. 48-57% of world steel production is produced by EAF. Under the scenario which thinks much of supply-demand balance of steel, steel production in developing regions increases is 1.4 times and is larger than that in developed regions. The share in developing regions, however, is not so different from current level. The increase in steel production by EAF is the largest under the scenario in which supply-demand balance of steel is an important factor. The share reaches 65%.

Keywords: global steel production, production distribution scenario, steel making process, supply-demand balance

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Authors: Solopova Olga

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The present paper briefly recalls theoretical preconditions for investigating cognitive-discursive models of future in political discourse. The author reviews theories and methods used for strengthening a future focus in this discourse working out two main tools – a model of future and a metaphorical scenario. The paper examines the implications of metaphorical analogies for modeling future in mass media. It argues that metaphor is not merely a rhetorical ornament in the political discourse of media regulation but a conceptual model that legislates and regulates our understanding of future.

Keywords: cognitive approach, future research, political discourse, model, scenario, metaphor

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Authors: K. C. Iyer, T. Gupta, Y. M. Bindal

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Head office overhead (HOOH) is an indirect cost and is recovered through individual project billings by the contractor. Delay in a project impacts the absorption of HOOH cost allocated to that particular project and thus diminishes the expected profit of the contractor. This unabsorbed HOOH cost is later claimed by contractors as damages. The subjective nature of the available formulae to compute unabsorbed HOOH is the difficulty that contractors and owners face and thus dispute it. The paper attempts to bring together the rationale of various HOOH formulae by gathering contractor’s HOOH cost data on all of its project, using case study approach and comparing variations in values of HOOH using scenario analysis. The case study approach uses project data collected from four construction projects of a contractor in India to calculate unabsorbed HOOH costs from various available formulae. Scenario analysis provides further variations in HOOH values after considering two independent situations mainly scope changes and new projects during the delay period. Interestingly, one of the findings in this study reveals that, in spite of HOOH getting absorbed by additional works available during the period of delay, a few formulae depict an increase in the value of unabsorbed HOOH, neglecting any absorption by the increase in scope. This indicates that these formulae are inappropriate for use in case of a change to the scope of work. Results of this study can help both parties in deciding on an appropriate formula more objectively, considering the events on a project causing the delay and contractor's position in respect of obtaining new projects.

Keywords: absorbed and unabsorbed overheads, head office overheads, scenario analysis, scope variation

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Authors: Vinod Kumar Jaysaval, Prateek Agarwal

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Performance prediction of airborne radar is a challenging and cumbersome task in clutter scenario for different types of targets. A generalized model requires to predict the performance of Radar for air targets as well as ground moving targets. In this paper, we propose a generalized model to bring out the performance of airborne radar for different Pulsed Repetition Frequency (PRF) as well as different type of targets. The model provides a platform to bring out different subsystem parameters for different applications and performance requirements under different types of clutter terrain.

Keywords: airborne radar, blind zone, clutter, probability of detection

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Authors: Shahira Mahmoud Yacout

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Writing is an essential skill in many vocational, academic environments, and notably workplaces, yet many students perceive writing as being something tiring and boring or maybe a “waste of time”. Studies in the field of foreign languages related this fact might be due to the lack of connection between what is learned in the university and what students come to encounter in real life situations”. Arabic learners felt they needed more language exposure to the context of their future professions. With this idea in mind, Scenario based learning (SBL) is reported to be an educational approach to motivate, engage and stimulate students’ interest and to achieve the desired writing learning outcomes. In addition, researchers suggested Scenario based learning (SBL)as an instructional approach that develops and enhances students skills through developing higher order thinking skills and active learning. It is a subset of problem-based learning and case-based learning. The approach focuses on authentic rhetorical framing reflecting writing tasks in real life situations. It works successfully when used to simulate real-world practices, providing context that reflects the types of situations professionals respond to in writing. It was claimed that using realistic scenarios customized to the course’s learning objectives as it bridged the gap for students between theory and application. Within this context, it is thought that scenario-based learning is an important approach to enhance the learners’ writing skills and to reflect meaningful learning within authentic contexts. As an Arabicforeign language instructor, it was noticed that students find difficulties in adapting writing styles to authentic writing contexts and addressing different audiences and purposes. This idea is supported by studieswho claimed that AFL students faced difficulties with transferring writing skills to situations outside of the classroom context. In addition, it was observed that some of the Arabic textbooks for teaching Arabic as a foreign language lacked topics that initiated higher order thinking skills and stimulated the learners to understand the setting, and created messages appropriate to different audiences, context, and purposes. The goals of this study are to 1)provide a rational for using scenario-based learning approach to improveAFL learners in writing skills, 2) demonstrate how to design/ implement a scenario-based learning technique aligned with the writing course objectives,3) demonstrate samples of scenario-based approach implemented in AFL writing class, and 4)emphasis the role of peer-review along with the instructor’s feedback, in the process of developing the writing skill. Finally, this presentation highlighted and emphasized the importance of using the scenario-based learning approach in writing as a means to mirror students’ real-life situations and engage them in planning, monitoring, and problem solving. This approach helped in making writing an enjoyable experience and clearly useful to students’ future professional careers.

Keywords: meaningful learning, real life contexts, scenario based learning, writing skill

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

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Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One models of Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictands to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 to 105 cm. Furthermore the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, forecasting

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Authors: Melissa Langevin, Natalie Ward, Colleen Fitzgibbons, Christa Ramsey, Melanie Hogue, Anna Theresa Lobos

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Description: Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is used by health care teams to examine adverse events (AEs) to identify causes which then leads to recommendations for prevention Despite widespread use, RCA has limitations. Best practices have not been established for implementing recommendations or tracking the impact of interventions after AEs. During phase 1 of this study, we used simulation to analyze two fictionalized AEs that occurred in hospitalized paediatric patients to identify and understand how the errors occurred and generated recommendations to mitigate and prevent recurrences. Scenario A involved an error of commission (inpatient drug error), and Scenario B involved detecting an error that already occurred (critical care drug infusion error). Recommendations generated were: improved drug labeling, specialized drug kids, alert signs and clinical checklists. Aim: Use simulation to optimize interventions recommended post critical event analysis prior to implementation in the clinical environment. Methods: Suggested interventions from Phase 1 were designed and tested through scenario simulation in the clinical environment (medicine ward or pediatric intensive care unit). Each scenario was simulated 8 times. Recommendations were tested using different, voluntary teams and each scenario was debriefed to understand why the error was repeated despite interventions and how interventions could be improved. Interventions were modified with subsequent simulations until recommendations were felt to have an optimal effect and data saturation was achieved. Along with concrete suggestions for design and process change, qualitative data pertaining to employee communication and hospital standard work was collected and analyzed. Results: Each scenario had a total of three interventions to test. In, scenario 1, the error was reproduced in the initial two iterations and mitigated following key intervention changes. In scenario 2, the error was identified immediately in all cases where the intervention checklist was utilized properly. Independently of intervention changes and improvements, the simulation was beneficial to identify which of these should be prioritized for implementation and highlighted that even the potential solutions most frequently suggested by participants did not always translate into error prevention in the clinical environment. Conclusion: We conclude that interventions that help to change process (epinephrine kit or mandatory checklist) were more successful at preventing errors than passive interventions (signage, change in memory aids). Given that even the most successful interventions needed modifications and subsequent re-testing, simulation is key to optimizing suggested changes. Simulation is a safe, practice changing modality for institutions to use prior to implementing recommendations from RCA following AE reviews.

Keywords: adverse events, patient safety, pediatrics, root cause analysis, simulation

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Authors: Ali Y Al-Attraqchi, P. Rajeev, M. Javad Hashemi, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

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This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

Keywords: fire, nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis, progressive collapse, structural engineering

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Authors: Felipe A. Guth, Shane Ward, Kevin McDonnell

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In the precision agriculture area, one of the main tasks is the automated detection of diseases in crops. Machine Learning algorithms have been studied in recent decades for such tasks in view of their potential for improving economic outcomes that automated disease detection may attain over crop fields. The latest generation of deep learning convolution neural networks has presented significant results in the area of image classification. In this way, this work has tested the implementation of an architecture of deep learning convolution neural network for the detection of diseases in different types of crops. A data augmentation strategy was used to meet the requirements of the algorithm implemented with a deep learning framework. Two test scenarios were deployed. The first scenario implemented a neural network under images extracted from a controlled environment while the second one took images both from the field and the controlled environment. The results evaluated the generalisation capacity of the neural networks in relation to the two types of images presented. Results yielded a general classification accuracy of 59% in scenario 1 and 96% in scenario 2.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, deep learning, disease detection, precision agriculture

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Authors: Muheddin Hamza, Entisar Etter

Abstract:

This study is a part of investigating the possibility of blending two crude oils obtained from Libyan oil fields, namely crude oil (A) and crude oil (B) with different ratios, prior to blending the crude oils have to be compatible in order to avoid phase out and precipitation of asphaltene from the bulk of crude. The physical properties of both crudes such as density, viscosity, pour point and sulphur content were measured according to (ASTM) method. To examine the stability of both crudes and their blends, the oil compatibility model using microscopic, colloidal instability index (CII) using SARA analysis and asphaltene stabilization test using Turbiscan tests were conducted in the Libyan Petroleum Institute laboratories. Compatibility tests were carried out with both crude oils, the insolubility number (IN), and the solubility blending number (SBN), for both crude oils and their blends were calculated. The criteria for compatibility of any blend is that the volume average solubility blending number (SBN) is greater than the insolubility number (IN) of any component in the blend, the results indicated that both crudes were compatible. To support the results of compatibility tests the SARA analysis was done for the fractional determination of (saturates, aromatics, resins and asphaltenes) content. From this result, the colloidal Instability index (CII) and resin to asphaltenes ratio (R/A) were calculated for crudes and their blends. The results show that crude oil (B) which has higher (R/A) and lower (CII) is more stable than crude oil (A) and as the ratio of crude (B) increases in the blend the (CII) and (R/A) were improved, and the blends becomes more stable. Asphaltene stabilization test was also conducted for the crudes and their blends using Turbiscan MA200 according to the standard test method ASTM D7061-04, the Turbiscan shows that the crude (B) is more stable than crude (A) which shows a fair tendency. The (CII) and (R/A) were compared with the solubility number (SBN) for each crude and the blends along with Turbiscan results. The solubility blending number (SBN) of the crudes and their blends show that the crudes are compatible, also by comparing (R/A) and (SBN) values of the blends, it can be seen that they are complements of each other. All the experimental results show that the blends of both crudes are more stability.

Keywords: asphaltene, crude oil, compatibility, oil blends, resin, SARA

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Authors: Robert Jacobsen

Abstract:

Flood inundation maps (FIMs) are an essential tool in communicating flood threat scenarios to the public as well as in floodplain governance. With an increasing demand for online raster FIMs, the FIM State-of-the-Practice (SOP) is rapidly advancing to meet the dual requirements for high-resolution and high-accuracy—or High-Definition. Importantly, today’s technology also enables the resolution of problems of local—neighborhood-scale—bias errors that often occur in FIMs, even with the use of SOP two-dimensional flood modeling. To facilitate the development of HD-FIMs, a new GIS method--Raster Adjustment with Scenario Profiles, RASPTM—is described for adjusting kernel raster FIMs to match refined scenario profiles. With RASPTM, flood professionals can prepare HD-FIMs for a wide range of scenarios with available kernel rasters, including kernel rasters prepared from vector FIMs. The paper provides detailed procedures for RASPTM, along with an example of applying RASPTM to prepare an HD-FIM for the August 2016 Flood in Louisiana using both an SOP kernel raster and a kernel raster derived from an older vector-based flood insurance rate map. The accuracy of the HD-FIMs achieved with the application of RASPTM to the two kernel rasters is evaluated.

Keywords: hydrology, mapping, high-definition, inundation

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Authors: Liping Li, Wenan Tan, Na Wang

Abstract:

With the rapid development of information technology, project management has gained more and more attention recently. Based on CDIO, this paper proposes some teaching reform ideas for software project management curriculum. We first change from Teacher-centered classroom to Student-centered and adopt project-driven, scenario animation show, teaching rhythms, case study and team work practice to improve students' learning enthusiasm. Results showed these attempts have been well received and very effective; as well, students prefer to learn with this curriculum more than before the reform.

Keywords: CDIO, teaching reform, engineering education, project-driven, scenario animation simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 404

Authors: M. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal Khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H. Sharma, Fatema Akram

Abstract:

Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameter stationary. However, climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise (SLR). To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment

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Authors: Abduladim Maitieg, Mark Johnson

Abstract:

Developing a coastal oil spill management plan for the Misratah coast is the motivating factor for building a database for coastal and marine systems and energy resources. Wind direction and speed, currents, bathymetry, coastal topography and offshore dynamics influence oil spill deposition in coastal water. Therefore, oceanographic and climatological data can be used to understand oil slick movement and potential oil deposits on shoreline area and the behaviour of oil spill trajectories on the sea surface. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the coastal and marine physical factors under strong wave conditions and various bathymetric and coastal topography gradients in the western coastal area of Libya on the movement of oil slicks. The movement of oil slicks was computed using a GNOME simulation model based on current and wind speed/direction. The results in this paper show that (1) Oil slick might reach the Misratah shoreline area in two days in the summer and winter. Seasons. (2 ) The North coast of Misratah is the potential oil deposit area on the Misratah coast. (3) Tarball pollution was observed along the North coast of Misratah. (4) Two scenarios for the summer and the winter season were run, along the western coast of Libya . (5) The eastern coast is at a lower potential risk due to the influence of wind and current energy in the Gulf of Sidra. (6) The Misratah coastline is more vulnerable to oil spill movement in the summer than in winter seasons. (7) Oil slick takes from 2 to 5 days to reach the saltmarsh in the eastern Misratah coast. (8) Oil slick moves 300 km in 30 days from the spill resource location near the Libyan western border to the Misratah coast.(9) Bathymetric features have a profound effect on oil spill movement. (9)Oil dispersion simulations using GNOME are carried out taking into account high-resolution wind and current data.

Keywords: oil spill movement, coastal and marine physical factors, coast area, Libyan

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Authors: Alfi Al Fahreizy

Abstract:

Yogyakarta is one of the provinces in Indonesia that often get a power outage because of high load electrical consumption. The authors mapped the electrical energy consumption [GWh] for the province of Yogyakarta in 2014-2025 using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) software. This paper use BAU (Business As Usual) scenario. BAU scenario in which the projection is based on the assumption that growth in electricity consumption will run as normally as before. The goal is to be able to see the electrical energy consumption in the household sector, industry , business, social, government office building, and street lighting. The data is the data projected statistical population and consumption data electricity [GWh] 2010, 2011, 2012 in Yogyakarta province.

Keywords: LEAP, energy consumption, Yogyakarta, BAU

Procedia PDF Downloads 566