Search results for: production distribution scenario
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12565

Search results for: production distribution scenario

12565 Estimation of World Steel Production by Process

Authors: Reina Kawase

Abstract:

World GHG emissions should be reduced 50% by 2050 compared with 1990 level. CO2 emission reduction from steel sector, an energy-intensive sector, is essential. To estimate CO2 emission from steel sector in the world, estimation of steel production is required. The world steel production by process is estimated during the period of 2005-2050. The world is divided into aggregated 35 regions. For a steel making process, two kinds of processes are considered; basic oxygen furnace (BOF) and electric arc furnace (EAF). Steel production by process in each region is decided based on a current production capacity, supply-demand balance of steel and scrap, technology innovation of steel making, steel consumption projection, and goods trade. World steel production under moderate countermeasure scenario in 2050 increases by 1.3 times compared with that in 2012. When domestic scrap recycling is promoted, steel production in developed regions increases about 1.5 times. The share in developed regions changes from 34 %(2012) to about 40%(2050). This is because developed regions are main suppliers of scrap. 48-57% of world steel production is produced by EAF. Under the scenario which thinks much of supply-demand balance of steel, steel production in developing regions increases is 1.4 times and is larger than that in developed regions. The share in developing regions, however, is not so different from current level. The increase in steel production by EAF is the largest under the scenario in which supply-demand balance of steel is an important factor. The share reaches 65%.

Keywords: global steel production, production distribution scenario, steel making process, supply-demand balance

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12564 Numerical Simulation of Different Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Scenarios on a Volatile Oil Reservoir

Authors: Soheil Tavakolpour

Abstract:

Enhance Oil Recovery (EOR) can be considered as an undeniable action in reservoirs life period. Different kind of EOR methods are available, but suitable EOR method depends on reservoir properties, like rock and fluid properties. In this paper, we nominated fifth SPE’s Comparative Solution Projects (CSP) for testing different scenarios. We used seven EOR scenarios for this reservoir and we simulated it for 10 years after 2 years production without any injection. The first scenario is waterflooding for whole of the 10 years period. The second scenario is gas injection for ten years. The third scenario is Water-Alternation-Gas (WAG). In the next scenario, water injected for 4 years before starting WAG injection for the next 6 years. In the fifth scenario, water injected after 6 years WAG injection for 4 years. For sixth and last scenarios, all the things are similar to fourth and fifth scenarios, but gas injected instead of water. Results show that fourth scenario was the most efficient method for 10 years EOR, but it resulted very high water production. Fifth scenario was efficient too, with little water production in comparison to the fourth scenario. Gas injection was not economically attractive. In addition to high gas production, it produced less oil in comparison to other scenarios.

Keywords: WAG, SPE’s comparative solution projects, numerical simulation, EOR scenarios

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12563 Techno-Economic Analysis of the Production of Aniline

Authors: Dharshini M., Hema N. S.

Abstract:

The project for the production of aniline is done by providing 295.46 tons per day of nitrobenzene as feed. The material and energy balance calculations for the different equipment like distillation column, heat exchangers, reactor and mixer are carried out with simulation via DWSIM. The conversion of nitrobenzene to aniline by hydrogenation process is considered to be 96% and the total production of the plant was found to be 215 TPD. The cost estimation of the process is carried out to estimate the feasibility of the plant. The net profit and percentage return of investment is estimated to be ₹27 crores and 24.6%. The payback period was estimated to be 4.05 years and the unit production cost is ₹113/kg. A techno-economic analysis was performed for the production of aniline; the result includes economic analysis and sensitivity analysis of critical factors. From economic analysis, larger the plant scale increases the total capital investment and annual operating cost, even though the unit production cost decreases. Uncertainty analysis was performed to predict the influence of economic factors on profitability and the scenario analysis is one way to quantify uncertainty. In scenario analysis the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario are compared with the base case scenario. The best-case scenario was found at a feed rate of 120 kmol/hr with a unit production cost of ₹112.05/kg and the worst-case scenario was found at a feed rate of 60 kmol/hr with a unit production cost of ₹115.9/kg. The base case is closely related to the best case by 99.2% in terms of unit production cost. since the unit production cost is less and the profitability is more with less payback time, it is feasible to construct a plant at this capacity.

Keywords: aniline, nitrobenzene, economic analysis, unit production cost

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12562 A Range of Steel Production in Japan towards 2050

Authors: Reina Kawase

Abstract:

Japan set the goal of 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. To consider countermeasures for reducing GHG emission, the production estimation of energy intensive materials, such as steel, is essential. About 50% of steel production is exported in Japan, so it is necessary to consider steel production including export. Steel productions from 2005-2050 in Japan were estimated under various global assumptions based on combination of scenarios such as goods trade scenarios and steel making process selection scenarios. Process selection scenarios decide volume of steel production by process (basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace) with considering steel consumption projection, supply-demand balance of steel, and scrap surplus. The range of steel production by process was analyzed. Maximum steel production was estimated under the scenario which consumes scrap in domestic steel production at maximum level. In 2035, steel production reaches 149 million ton because of increase in electric arc furnace steel. However, it decreases towards 2050 and amounts to 120 million ton, which is almost same as a current level. Minimum steel production is under the scenario which assumes technology progress in steel making and supply-demand balance consideration in each region. Steel production decreases from base year and is 44 million ton in 2050.

Keywords: goods trade scenario, steel making process selection scenario, steel production, global warming

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12561 A Two Phase VNS Algorithm for the Combined Production Routing Problem

Authors: Nejah Ben Mabrouk, Bassem Jarboui, Habib Chabchoub

Abstract:

Production and distribution planning is the most important part in supply chain management. In this paper, a NP-hard production-distribution problem for one product over a multi-period horizon is investigated. The aim is to minimize the sum of costs of three items: production setups, inventories and distribution, while determining, for each period, the amount produced, the inventory levels and the delivery trips. To solve this difficult problem, we propose a bi-phase approach based on a Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS). This heuristic is tested on 90 randomly generated instances from the literature, with 20 periods and 50, 100, 200 customers. Computational results show that our approach outperforms existing solution procedures available in the literature

Keywords: logistic, production, distribution, variable neighbourhood search

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12560 Prospection of Technology Production in Physiotherapy in Brazil

Authors: C. M. Priesnitz, G. Zanandrea, J. P. Fabris, S. L. Russo, M. E. Camargo

Abstract:

This study aimed to the prospection the physiotherapy area technological production registered with the National Intellectual Property Institute (INPI) in Brazil, for understand the evolution of the technological production in the country over time and visualize the distribution this production request in Brazil. There was an evolution in the technology landscape, where the average annual deposits had an increase of 102%, from 3.14 before the year 2004 to 6,33 after this date. It was found differences in the distribution of the number the deposits requested to each Brazilian region, being that of the 132 request, 68,9% were from the southeast region. The international patent classification evaluated the request deposits, and the more found numbers were A61H and A63B. So even with an improved panorama of technology production, this should still have incentives since it is an important tool for the development of the country.

Keywords: distribution, evolution, patent, physiotherapy, technological prospecting

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12559 Production Process of Coconut-Shell Product in Amphawa District

Authors: Wannee Sutthachaidee

Abstract:

The study of the production process of coconut-shell product in Amphawa, Samutsongkram Province is objected to study the pattern of the process of coconut-shell product by focusing in the 3 main processes which are inbound logistics process, production process and outbound process. The result of the research: There were 4 main results from the study. Firstly, most of the manufacturer of coconut-shell product is usually owned by a single owner and the quantity of the finished product is quite low and the main labor group is local people. Secondly, the production process can be divided into 4 stages which are pre-production process, production process, packaging process and distribution process. Thirdly, each 3 of the logistics process of coconut shell will find process which may cause the problem to the business but the process which finds the most problem is the production process because the production process needs the skilled labor and the quantity of the labor does not match with the demand from the customers. Lastly, the factors which affect the production process of the coconut shell can be founded in almost every process of the process such as production design, packaging design, sourcing supply and distribution management.

Keywords: production process, coconut-shell product, Amphawa District, inbound logistics process

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12558 A Heuristic for the Integrated Production and Distribution Scheduling Problem

Authors: Christian Meinecke, Bernd Scholz-Reiter

Abstract:

The integrated problem of production and distribution scheduling is relevant in many industrial applications. Thus, many heuristics to solve this integrated problem have been developed in the last decade. Most of these heuristics use a sequential working principal or a single decomposition and integration approach to separate and solve sub-problems. A heuristic using a multi-step decomposition and integration approach is presented in this paper and evaluated in a case study. The result show significant improved results compared with sequential scheduling heuristics.

Keywords: production and outbound distribution, integrated planning, heuristic, decomposition, integration

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12557 Social Media as a Distribution Channel for Thailand’s Rice Berry Product

Authors: Phutthiwat Waiyawuththanapoom, Wannapong Waiyawuththanapoom, Pimploi Tirastittam

Abstract:

Nowadays, it is a globalization era which social media plays an important role to the lifestyle as an information source, tools to connect people together and etc. This research is object to find out about the significant level of the social media as a distribution channel to the agriculture product of Thailand. In this research, the agriculture product is the Rice Berry which is the cross-bred unmilled rice producing dark violet grain, is a combination of Hom Nin Rice and Thai Jasmine/ Fragrant Rice 105. Rice Berry has a very high nutrition and nice aroma so the product is in the growth stage of the product cycle. The problem for the Rice Berry product in Thailand is the production and the distribution channel. This study is to confirm that the social media is another option as the distribution channel for the product which is not a mass production product. This will be the role model for the other niche market product to select the distribution channel.

Keywords: distribution, social media, rice berry, distribution channel

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12556 A Succinct Method for Allocation of Reactive Power Loss in Deregulated Scenario

Authors: J. S. Savier

Abstract:

Real power is the component power which is converted into useful energy whereas reactive power is the component of power which cannot be converted to useful energy but it is required for the magnetization of various electrical machineries. If the reactive power is compensated at the consumer end, the need for reactive power flow from generators to the load can be avoided and hence the overall power loss can be reduced. In this scenario, this paper presents a succinct method called JSS method for allocation of reactive power losses to consumers connected to radial distribution networks in a deregulated environment. The proposed method has the advantage that no assumptions are made while deriving the reactive power loss allocation method.

Keywords: deregulation, reactive power loss allocation, radial distribution systems, succinct method

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12555 Green Hydrogen: Exploring Economic Viability and Alluring Business Scenarios

Authors: S. Sakthivel

Abstract:

Currently, the global economy is based on the hydrocarbon economy, which is referencing the global hydrocarbon industry. Problems of using these fossil fuels (like oil, NG, coal) are emitting greenhouse gases (GHGs) and price fluctuation, supply/distribution, etc. These challenges can be overcome by using clean energy as hydrogen. The hydrogen economy is the use of hydrogen as a low carbon fuel, particularly for hydrogen vehicles, alternative industrial feedstock, power generation, and energy storage, etc. Engineering consulting firms have a significant role in this ambition and green hydrogen value chain (i.e., integration of renewables, production, storage, and distribution to end-users). Typically, the cost of green hydrogen is a function of the price of electricity needed, the cost of the electrolyser, and the operating cost to run the system. This article focuses on economic viability and explores the alluring business scenarios globally. Break-even analysis was carried out for green hydrogen production and in order to evaluate and compare the impact of the electricity price on the production costs of green hydrogen and relate it to fossil fuel-based brown/grey/blue hydrogen costs. It indicates that the cost of green hydrogen production will fall drastically due to the declining costs of renewable electricity prices and along with the improvement and scaling up of electrolyser manufacturing. For instance, in a scenario where electricity prices are below US$ 40/MWh, green hydrogen cost is expected to reach cost competitiveness.

Keywords: green hydrogen, cost analysis, break-even analysis, renewables, electrolyzer

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12554 Production Planning for Animal Food Industry under Demand Uncertainty

Authors: Pirom Thangchitpianpol, Suttipong Jumroonrut

Abstract:

This research investigates the distribution of food demand for animal food and the optimum amount of that food production at minimum cost. The data consist of customer purchase orders for the food of laying hens, price of food for laying hens, cost per unit for the food inventory, cost related to food of laying hens in which the food is out of stock, such as fine, overtime, urgent purchase for material. They were collected from January, 1990 to December, 2013 from a factory in Nakhonratchasima province. The collected data are analyzed in order to explore the distribution of the monthly food demand for the laying hens and to see the rate of inventory per unit. The results are used in a stochastic linear programming model for aggregate planning in which the optimum production or minimum cost could be obtained. Programming algorithms in MATLAB and tools in Linprog software are used to get the solution. The distribution of the food demand for laying hens and the random numbers are used in the model. The study shows that the distribution of monthly food demand for laying has a normal distribution, the monthly average amount (unit: 30 kg) of production from January to December. The minimum total cost average for 12 months is Baht 62,329,181.77. Therefore, the production planning can reduce the cost by 14.64% from real cost.

Keywords: animal food, stochastic linear programming, aggregate planning, production planning, demand uncertainty

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12553 Life Cycle Assessment of Almond Processing: Off-ground Harvesting Scenarios

Authors: Jessica Bain, Greg Thoma, Marty Matlock, Jeyam Subbiah, Ebenezer Kwofie

Abstract:

The environmental impact and particulate matter emissions (PM) associated with the production and packaging of 1 kg of almonds were evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA). The assessment began at the point of ready to harvest with a system boundary was a cradle-to-gate assessment of almond packaging in California. The assessment included three scenarios of off-ground harvesting of almonds. The three general off-ground harvesting scenarios with variations include the harvested almonds solar dried on a paper tarp in the orchard, the harvested almonds solar dried on the floor in a separate lot, and the harvested almonds dried mechanically. The life cycle inventory (LCI) data for almond production were based on previously published literature and data provided by Almond Board of California (ABC). The ReCiPe 2016 method was used to calculate the midpoint impacts. Using consequential LCA model, the global warming potential (GWP) for the three harvesting scenarios are 2.90, 2.86, and 3.09 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond for scenarios 1, 2a, and 3a, respectively. The global warming potential for conventional harvesting method was 2.89 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond. The particulate matter emissions for each scenario per hectare for each off-ground harvesting scenario is 77.14, 9.56, 66.86, and 8.75 for conventional harvesting and scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The most significant contributions to the overall emissions were from almond production. The farm gate almond production had a global warming potential of 2.12 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond, approximately 73% of the overall emissions. Based on comparisons between the GWP and PM emissions, scenario 2a was the best tradeoff between GHG and PM production.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, low moisture foods, sustainability, LCA

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12552 Energy Loss Reduction in Oil Refineries through Flare Gas Recovery Approaches

Authors: Majid Amidpour, Parisa Karimi, Marzieh Joda

Abstract:

For the last few years, release of burned undesirable by-products has become a challenging issue in oil industries. Flaring, as one of the main sources of air contamination, involves detrimental and long-lasting effects on human health and is considered a substantial reason for energy losses worldwide. This research involves studying the implications of two main flare gas recovery methods at three oil refineries, all in Iran as the case I, case II, and case III in which the production capacities are increasing respectively. In the proposed methods, flare gases are converted into more valuable products, before combustion by the flare networks. The first approach involves collecting, compressing and converting the flare gas to smokeless fuel which can be used in the fuel gas system of the refineries. The other scenario includes utilizing the flare gas as a feed into liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production unit already established in the refineries. The processes of these scenarios are simulated, and the capital investment is calculated for each procedure. The cumulative profits of the scenarios are evaluated using Net Present Value method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis based on total propane and butane mole fraction is carried out to make a rational comparison for LPG production approach, and the results are illustrated for different mole fractions of propane and butane. As the mole fraction of propane and butane contained in LPG differs in summer and winter seasons, the results corresponding to LPG scenario are demonstrated for each season. The results of the simulations show that cumulative profit in fuel gas production scenario and LPG production rate increase with the capacity of the refineries. Moreover, the investment return time in LPG production method experiences a decline, followed by a rising trend with an increase in C3 and C4 content. The minimum value of time return occurs at propane and butane sum concentration values of 0.7, 0.6, and 0.7 in case I, II, and III, respectively. Based on comparison of the time of investment return and cumulative profit, fuel gas production is the superior scenario for three case studies.

Keywords: flare gas reduction, liquefied petroleum gas, fuel gas, net present value method, sensitivity analysis

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12551 Comparative Techno-Economic Assessment and LCA of Selected Integrated Sugarcane-Based Biorefineries

Authors: Edgard Gnansounoua, Pavel Vaskan, Elia Ruiz Pachón

Abstract:

This work addresses the economic and environmental performance of integrated biorefineries based on sugarcane juice and residues in the context of Brazil. We have considered four multiproduct scenarios; two from existing Brazilian sugar mills and the others from ethanol autonomous distilleries. They are integrated biorefineries producing first (1G) and second (2G) generation ethanol, sugar, molasses (for animal feed) and electricity. We show the results for the analysis and comparison of the different scenarios using a techno-economic value-based approach and LCA methodology. We have found that all the analysed scenarios show positive values of Climate change and Fossil depletion reduction as compared to the reference systems. However the scenario producing only ethanol shows less efficiency in Human toxicity, Freshwater ecotoxicity and Freshwater eutrophication impacts. The best economic configuration is provided by the scenario with the largest ethanol production. On the other hand, the best environmental performance is presented by the scenario with full integration sugar – 1G2G ethanol production. The integration of 2G based residues in a 1G ethanol production plant leads to positive environmental impacts compared to the conventional 1G industrial plant but proves to be more expensive.

Keywords: sugarcane, biorefinery, 1G/2G bioethanol integration, LCA, Brazil

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12550 Sustainable Electricity Generation Mix for Kenya from 2015 to 2035

Authors: Alex Maina, Mwenda Makathimo, Adwek George, Charles Opiyo

Abstract:

This research entails the simulation of three possible power scenarios for Kenya from 2015 to 2035 using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). These scenarios represent the unfolding future electricity generation that will fully satisfy the demand while considering the following: energy security, power generation cost and impacts on the environment. These scenarios are Reference Scenario (RS), Nuclear Scenario (NS) and More Renewable Scenario (MRS). The findings obtained reveals that the most sustainable scenario while comparing the costs was found to be the coal scenario with a Net Present Value (NPV) of $30,052.67 million though it has the highest Green House Gases (GHGs) emissions. However, the More Renewable Scenario (MRS) had the least GHGs emissions but was found to be a most expensive scenario to implement with an NPV of $30,733.07 million.

Keywords: energy security, Kenya, low emissions analysis platform, net-present value, greenhouse gases

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12549 Commercialization of Film Festivals: An Autobiographical Analysis

Authors: Önder M. Özdem

Abstract:

Producing and circulating films of professional standards have become technically easier with the development and widespread use of digital recording and distribution technologies. Additionally, film festivals on common platforms have rapidly increased in numbers and diversity. On the one hand, no-charge applications result in excessive submissions; thus, it complicates the evaluation and selection process. On the other hand, festival’s high submission fees may make the distribution of films with a limited budget very difficult. Inspired by the author’s engagement with the film industry as both a pre-jury member of an international film festival and an applicant to many festivals, this study discusses the causes and consequences of the increasing commercialization of film festivals. The author’s double identity, both as a jury and an applicant, provides a comparative perspective through which one can unfold the different dimensions and dynamics in the film production and distribution processes.

Keywords: commercialization, film distribution, film festivals, film production

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12548 Multi-Objective Optimization for the Green Vehicle Routing Problem: Approach to Case Study of the Newspaper Distribution Problem

Authors: Julio C. Ferreira, Maria T. A. Steiner

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to present a solution procedure referred to here as the Multi-objective Optimization for Green Vehicle Routing Problem (MOOGVRP) to provide solutions for a case study. The proposed methodology consists of three stages to resolve Scenario A. Stage 1 consists of the “treatment” of data; Stage 2 consists of applying mathematical models of the p-Median Capacitated Problem (with the objectives of minimization of distances and homogenization of demands between groups) and the Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem (with the objectives of minimizing distances and minimizing time). The weighted method was used as the multi-objective procedure. In Stage 3, an analysis of the results is conducted, taking into consideration the environmental aspects related to the case study, more specifically with regard to fuel consumption and air pollutant emission. This methodology was applied to a (partial) database that addresses newspaper distribution in the municipality of Curitiba, Paraná State, Brazil. The preliminary findings for Scenario A showed that it was possible to improve the distribution of the load, reduce the mileage and the greenhouse gas by 17.32% and the journey time by 22.58% in comparison with the current scenario. The intention for future works is to use other multi-objective techniques and an expanded version of the database and explore the triple bottom line of sustainability.

Keywords: Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem, Green Vehicle Routing Problem, Multi-objective Optimization, p-Median Capacitated Problem

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12547 Special Case of Trip Distribution Model and Its Use for Estimation of Detailed Transport Demand in the Czech Republic

Authors: Jiri Dufek

Abstract:

The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

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12546 Performance Optimization on Waiting Time Using Queuing Theory in an Advanced Manufacturing Environment: Robotics to Enhance Productivity

Authors: Ganiyat Soliu, Glen Bright, Chiemela Onunka

Abstract:

Performance optimization plays a key role in controlling the waiting time during manufacturing in an advanced manufacturing environment to improve productivity. Queuing mathematical modeling theory was used to examine the performance of the multi-stage production line. Robotics as a disruptive technology was implemented into a virtual manufacturing scenario during the packaging process to study the effect of waiting time on productivity. The queuing mathematical model was used to determine the optimum service rate required by robots during the packaging stage of manufacturing to yield an optimum production cost. Different rates of production were assumed in a virtual manufacturing environment, cost of packaging was estimated with optimum production cost. An equation was generated using queuing mathematical modeling theory and the theorem adopted for analysis of the scenario is the Newton Raphson theorem. Queuing theory presented here provides an adequate analysis of the number of robots required to regulate waiting time in order to increase the number of output. Arrival rate of the product was fast which shows that queuing mathematical model was effective in minimizing service cost and the waiting time during manufacturing. At a reduced waiting time, there was an improvement in the number of products obtained per hour. The overall productivity was improved based on the assumptions used in the queuing modeling theory implemented in the virtual manufacturing scenario.

Keywords: performance optimization, productivity, queuing theory, robotics

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12545 Thai Cane Farmers' Responses to Sugar Policy Reforms: An Intentions Survey

Authors: Savita Tangwongkit, Chittur S Srinivasan, Philip J. Jones

Abstract:

Thailand has become the world’s fourth largest sugarcane producer and second largest sugar exporter. While there have been a number of drivers of this growth, the primary driver has been wide-ranging government support measures. Recently, the Thai government has emphasized the need for policy reform as part of a broader industry restructuring to bring the sector up-to-date with the current and future developments in the international sugar market. Because of the sectors historical dependence on government support, any such reform is likely to have a very significant impact on the fortunes of Thai cane farmers. This study explores the impact of three policy scenarios, representing a spectrum of policy approaches, on Thai cane producers. These reform scenarios were designed in consultation with policy makers and academics working in the cane sector. Scenario 1 captures the current ‘government proposal’ for policy reform. This scenario removes certain domestic production subsidies but seeks to maintain as much support as is permissible under current WTO rules. The second scenario, ‘protectionism’, maintains the current internal market producer supports, but otherwise complies with international (WTO) commitments. Third, the ‘libertarian scenario’ removes all production support and market interventions, trade and domestic consumption distortions. Most important driver of producer behaviour in all of the scenarios is the producer price of cane. Cane price is obviously highest under the protectionism scenario, followed by government proposal and libertarian scenarios, respectively. Likely producer responses to these three policy scenarios was determined by means of a large-scale survey of cane farmers. The sample was stratified by size group and quotas filled by size group and region. One scenario was presented to each of three sub-samples, consisting of approx.150 farmers. Total sample size was 462 farms. Data was collected by face-to-face interview between June and August 2019. There was a marked difference in farmer response to the three scenarios. Farmers in the ‘Protectionism’ scenario, which maintains the highest cane price and those who farm larger cane areas are more likely to continue cane farming. The libertarian scenario is likely to result in the greatest losses in terms of cane production volume broadly double that of the ‘protectionism’ scenario, primarily due to farmers quitting cane production altogether. Over half of loss cane production volume comes from medium-size farm, i.e. the largest and smallest producers are the most resilient. This result is likely due to the fact that the medium size group are large enough to require hired labour but lack the economies of scale of the largest farms. Over all size groups the farms most heavily specialized in cane production, i.e. those devoting 26-50% of arable land to cane, are also the most vulnerable, with 70% of all farmers quitting cane production coming from this group. This investigation suggests that cane price is the most significant determinant of farmer behaviour. Also, that where scenarios drive significantly lower cane price, policy makers should target support towards mid-sized producers, with policies that encourage efficiency gains and diversification into alternative agricultural crops.

Keywords: farmer intentions, farm survey, policy reform, Thai cane production

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12544 Production of New Hadron States in Effective Field Theory

Authors: Qi Wu, Dian-Yong Chen, Feng-Kun Guo, Gang Li

Abstract:

In the past decade, a growing number of new hadron states have been observed, which are dubbed as XYZ states in the heavy quarkonium mass regions. In this work, we present our study on the production of some new hadron states. In particular, we investigate the processes Υ(5S,6S)→ Zb (10610)/Zb (10650)π, Bc→ Zc (3900)/Zc (4020)π and Λb→ Pc (4312)/Pc (4440)/Pc (4457)K. (1) For the production of Zb (10610)/Zb (10650) from Υ(5S,6S) decay, two types of bottom-meson loops were discussed within a nonrelativistic effective field theory. We found that the loop contributions with all intermediate states being the S-wave ground state bottom mesons are negligible, while the loops with one bottom meson being the broad B₀* or B₁' resonance could provide the dominant contributions to the Υ(5S)→ Zb⁽'⁾ π. (2) For the production of Zc (3900)/Zc (4020) from Bc decay, the branching ratios of Bc⁺→ Z (3900)⁺ π⁰ and Bc⁺→ Zc (4020)⁺ π⁰ are estimated to be of order of 10⁽⁻⁴⁾ and 10⁽⁻⁷⁾ in an effective Lagrangian approach. The large production rate of Zc (3900) could provide an important source of the production of Zc (3900) from the semi-exclusive decay of b-flavored hadrons reported by D0 Collaboration, which can be tested by the exclusive measurements in LHCb. (3) For the production of Pc (4312), Pc (4440) and Pc (4457) from Λb decay, the ratio of the branching fraction of Λb→ Pc K was predicted in a molecular scenario by using an effective Lagrangian approach, which is weakly dependent on our model parameter. We also find the ratios of the productions of the branching fractions of Λb→ Pc K and Pc→ J/ψ p can be well interpreted in the molecular scenario. Moreover, the estimated branching fractions of Λb→ Pc K are of order 10⁽⁻⁶⁾, which could be tested by further measurements in LHCb Collaboration.

Keywords: effective Lagrangian approach, hadron loops, molecular states, new hadron states

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12543 Finding the Theory of Riba Avoidance: A Scoping Review to Set the Research Agenda

Authors: Randa Ismail Sharafeddine

Abstract:

The Islamic economic system is distinctive in that it implicitly recognizes money as a separate, independent component of production capable of assuming risk and so entitled to the same reward as other Entrepreneurial Factors of Production (EFP). Conventional theory does not identify money capital explicitly as a component of production; rather, interest is recognized as a reward for capital, the interest rate is the cost of money capital, and it is also seen as a cost of physical capital. The conventional theory of production examines how diverse non-entrepreneurial resources (Land, Labor, and Capital) are selected; however, the economic theory community is largely unaware of the reasons why these resources choose to remain as non-entrepreneurial resources as opposed to becoming entrepreneurial resources. Should land, labor, and financial asset owners choose to work for others in return for rent, income, or interest, or should they engage in entrepreneurial risk-taking in order to profit. This is a decision made often in the actual world, but it has never been effectively treated in economic theory. This article will conduct a critical analysis of the conventional classification of factors of production and propose a classification for resource allocation and income distribution (Rent, Wages, Interest, and Profits) that is more rational, even within the conventional theoretical framework for evaluating and developing production and distribution theories. Money is an essential component of production in an Islamic economy, and it must be used to sustain economic activity.

Keywords: financial capital, production theory, distribution theory, economic activity, riba avoidance, institution of participation

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12542 Assessment of Hydrogen Demand for Different Technological Pathways to Decarbonise the Aviation Sector in Germany

Authors: Manish Khanra, Shashank Prabhu

Abstract:

The decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors is currently high on the agenda in the EU and its member states, as these sectors have substantial shares in overall GHG emissions while it is facing serious challenges to decarbonize. In particular, the aviation sector accounts for 2.8% of global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. These emissions are anticipated to grow dramatically unless immediate mitigating efforts are implemented. Hydrogen and its derivatives based on renewable electricity can have a key role in the transition towards CO₂-neutral flights. The substantial shares of energy carriers in the form of drop-in fuel, direct combustion and Hydrogen-to-Electric are promising in most scenarios towards 2050. For creating appropriate policies to ramp up the production and utilisation of hydrogen commodities in the German aviation sector, a detailed analysis of the spatial distribution of supply-demand sites is essential. The objective of this research work is to assess the demand for hydrogen-based alternative fuels in the German aviation sector to achieve the perceived goal of the ‘Net Zero’ scenario by 2050. Here, the analysis of the technological pathways for the production and utilisation of these fuels in various aircraft options is conducted for reaching mitigation targets. Our method is based on data-driven bottom-up assessment, considering production and demand sites and their spatial distribution. The resulting energy demand and its spatial distribution with consideration of technology diffusion lead to a possible transition pathway of the aviation sector to meet short-term and long-term mitigation targets. Additionally, to achieve mitigation targets in this sector, costs and policy aspects are discussed, which would support decision-makers from airline industries, policymakers and the producers of energy commodities.

Keywords: the aviation sector, hard-to-abate sectors, hydrogen demand, alternative fuels, technological pathways, data-driven approach

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12541 Influence of Parameters of Modeling and Data Distribution for Optimal Condition on Locally Weighted Projection Regression Method

Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

Abstract:

Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, online training method, locally weighted projection regression method

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12540 Predicting Mixing Patterns of Overflows from a Square Manhole

Authors: Modupe O. Jimoh

Abstract:

During manhole overflows, its contents pollute the immediate environment. Understanding the pollutant transfer characteristics between manhole’s incoming sewer and the overflow is therefore of great importance. A square manhole with sides 388 mm by 388 mm and height 700 mm with an overflow facility was used in the laboratory to carry out overflow concentration measurements. Two scenarios were investigated using three flow rates. The first scenario corresponded to when the exit of the pipe becomes blocked and the only exit for the flow is the manhole. The second scenario is when there is an overflow in combination with a pipe exit. The temporal concentration measurements showed that the peak concentration of pollutants in the flow was attenuated between the inlet and the overflow. A deconvolution software was used to predict the Residence time distribution (RTD) and consequently the Cumulative Residence time distribution (CRTD). The CRTDs suggest that complete mixing is occurring between the pipe inlet and the overflow, like what is obtained in a low surcharged manhole. The results also suggest that an instantaneous stirred tank reactor model can describe the mixing characteristics.

Keywords: CRTDs, instantaneous stirred tank reactor model, overflow, square manholes, surcharge, temporal concentration profiles

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12539 A Proposed Mechanism for Skewing Symmetric Distributions

Authors: M. T. Alodat

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a mechanism for skewing any symmetric distribution. The new distribution is called the deflation-inflation distribution (DID). We discuss some statistical properties of the DID such moments, stochastic representation, log-concavity. Also we fit the distribution to real data and we compare it to normal distribution and Azzlaini's skew normal distribution. Numerical results show that the DID fits the the tree ring data better than the other two distributions.

Keywords: normal distribution, moments, Fisher information, symmetric distributions

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12538 Method for Assessing Potential in Distribution Logistics

Authors: B. Groß, P. Fronia, P. Nyhuis

Abstract:

In addition to the production, which is already frequently optimized, improving the distribution logistics also opens up tremendous potential for increasing an enterprise’s competitiveness. Here too though, numerous interactions need to be taken into account, enterprises thus need to be able to identify and weigh between different potentials for economically efficient optimizations. In order to be able to assess potentials, enterprises require a suitable method. This paper first briefly presents the need for this research before introducing the procedure that will be used to develop an appropriate method that not only considers interactions but is also quickly and easily implemented.

Keywords: distribution logistics, evaluation of potential, methods, model

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12537 Energy Analysis of Sugarcane Production: A Case Study in Metehara Sugar Factory in Ethiopia

Authors: Wasihun Girma Hailemariam

Abstract:

Energy is one of the key elements required for every agricultural activity, especially for large scale agricultural production such as sugarcane cultivation which mostly is used to produce sugar and bioethanol from sugarcane. In such kinds of resource (energy) intensive activities, energy analysis of the production system and looking for other alternatives which can reduce energy inputs of the sugarcane production process are steps forward for resource management. The purpose of this study was to determine input energy (direct and indirect) per hectare of sugarcane production sector of Metehara sugar factory in Ethiopia. Total energy consumption of the production system was 61,642 MJ/ha-yr. This total input energy is a cumulative value of different inputs (direct and indirect inputs) in the production system. The contribution of these different inputs is discussed and a scenario of substituting the most influential input by other alternative input which can replace the original input in its nutrient content was discussed. In this study the most influential input for increased energy consumption was application of organic fertilizer which accounted for 50 % of the total energy consumption. Filter cake which is a residue from the sugar production in the factory was used to substitute the organic fertilizer and the reduction in the energy consumption of the sugarcane production was discussed

Keywords: energy analysis, organic fertilizer, resource management, sugarcane

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12536 Collaborative Energy Optimization for Multi-Microgrid Distribution System Based on Two-Stage Game Approach

Authors: Hanmei Peng, Yiqun Wang, Mao Tan, Zhuocen Dai, Yongxin Su

Abstract:

Efficient energy management in multi-microgrid distribution systems holds significant importance for enhancing the economic benefits of regional power grids. To better balance conflicts among various stakeholders, a two-stage game-based collaborative optimization approach is proposed in this paper, effectively addressing the realistic scenario involving both competition and collaboration among stakeholders. The first stage, aimed at maximizing individual benefits, involves constructing a non-cooperative tariff game model for the distribution network and surplus microgrid. In the second stage, considering power flow and physical line capacity constraints we establish a cooperative P2P game model for the multi-microgrid distribution system, and the optimization involves employing the Lagrange method of multipliers to handle complex constraints. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively improve the system economics while harmonizing individual and collective rationality.

Keywords: cooperative game, collaborative optimization, multi-microgrid distribution system, non-cooperative game

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