Search results for: calculation of risk factor

Authors: Alireza Abdiardekani, Maryam Salimi, Shirin Sarejloo, Mehdi Bazrafshan, Amir Askarinejad, Amirhossein Salimi, Hanieh Bazrafshan, Salar Javanshir, Armin Attar, Shokoufeh Khanzadeh, Mohsen Esmaeili, Hamed Bazrafshan Drissi

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Background: Opium, after tobacco, is the most abused substance in the Middle East. The effects of opium use on coronary artery disease are indeed unclear. This study aimed to assess the association between opium use and angiographic findings in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) diagnosis at Al-Zahra Heart Hospital, Shiraz, Iran. Methods: In this case-control study, 170 patients admitted for coronary angiography were enrolled from 2019 to 2020. They were categorized into two groups based on their history: "non-opium" and "opium." SPSS (Version 26) was used to investigate the correlation between opioid addiction and the severity of coronary artery disease. Results: The results of our study reveal that the mean age of the participants was 61.63±9.07. This study indicated that 49 (28.82%) patients were female, and 121 (71.17%) were male. Our findings revealed that three-vessel disease was more frequent in non-opium (40; 47.05%) and opium (45; 52.94%) groups. There was a significant correlation between the severity of the second diagonal artery(D2) and right coronary artery(RCA) involvement and opium consumption. There was a strong positive correlation between the location of the vascular lesion in the left circumflex artery and opium consumption. Conclusion: Opium, as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, can have specific effects on angiographic findings in patients with coronary artery disease. Public health officials and politicians should arrange several programs to increase the general population’s consciousness about opioid use and its consequences.

Keywords: acute coronary syndrome, opium, coronary artery disease, angiography

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejia, Jenny Paola Forero Pachon, Luis Carlos Gomez Florez

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The innumerable possibilities offered by the use of Information Technology (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities has made a change in the social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. The Colombian government, aware of this reality, has been promoting the use of IT as part of the E-government strategy adopted in the country. However, it is well known that the use of IT implies the existence of certain threats that put the security of information in the digital environment at risk. One of the priorities of the Colombian government is to improve access to alternative justice through IT, in particular, access to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR): conciliation, arbitration and friendly composition; by means of which it is sought that the citizens directly resolve their differences. To this end, a trend has been identified in the use of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) systems, which extend the benefits of ADR to the digital environment through the use of IT. This article presents a process for the analysis of information security risks associated with the incorporation of ODR systems in the context of conciliation in Colombia, based on four fundamental stages identified in the literature: (I) Identification of assets, (II) Identification of threats and vulnerabilities (III) Estimation of the impact and 4) Estimation of risk levels. The methodological design adopted for this research was the grounded theory, since it involves interactions that are applied to a specific context and from the perspective of diverse participants. As a result of this investigation, the activities to be followed are defined to carry out an analysis of information security risks, in the context of the conciliation in Colombia supported by ODR systems, thus contributing to the estimation of the risks to make possible its subsequent treatment.

Keywords: alternative dispute resolution, conciliation, information security, online dispute resolution systems, process, risk analysis

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Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: P. Chang, C. Lopez, C. Burbano

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Flood protection zones are riparian buffers that are formed to manage and mitigate the impact of flooding, and in turn, protect local populations. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Guía Técnica de Criterios para el Acotamiento de las Rondas Hídricas in Colombia against international regulations in Canada and Spain, in order to determine its limitations and contribute to its improvement. The need to establish a specific corridor that allows for the dynamic development of a river is clear; however, limitations present in the Colombian Technical Guide are identified. The study shows that international regulations provide similar concepts as used in Colombia, but additionally integrate aspects such as regionalization that allows for a better characterization of the channel way, and incorporate the frequency of flooding and its probability of occurrence in the concept of risk when determining the protection zone. The case study analyzed in Dosquebradas - Risaralda aimed at comparing the application of the different standards through hydraulic modeling. It highlights that the current Colombian standard does not offer sufficient details in its implementation phase, which leads to a false sense of security related to inaccuracy and lack of data. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how the Colombian norm is ill-adapted to the conditions of Dosquebradas typical of the Andes region, both in the social and hydraulic aspects, and does not reduce the risk, nor does it improve the protection of the population. Our study considers it pertinent to include risk estimation as an integral part of the methodology when establishing protect flood zone, considering the particularity of water systems, as they are characterized by an heterogeneous natural dynamic behavior.

Keywords: environmental corridor, flood zone determination, hydraulic domain, legislation flood protection zone

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Authors: Thochi Seb Rengma, Mahendra Kumar Gupta, P. M. V. Subbarao

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Hydrokinetic turbines can be used to produce power in inaccessible villages located near rivers. The hydrokinetic turbine uses the kinetic energy of the water and maybe put it directly into the natural flow of water without dams. For off-grid power production, the Savonius-type vertical axis turbine is the easiest to design and manufacture. This proposal uses three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to measure the considerable interaction and complexity of turbine blades. Savonius hydrokinetic turbine (SHKT) performance is affected by a blockage in the river, canals, and waterways. Putting a large object in a water channel causes water obstruction and raises local free stream velocity. The blockage correction factor or velocity increment measures the impact of velocity on the performance. SHKT performance is evaluated by comparing power coefficient (Cp) with tip-speed ratio (TSR) at various blockage ratios. The maximum Cp was obtained at a TSR of 1.1 with a blockage ratio of 45%, whereas TSR of 0.8 yielded the highest Cp without blockage. The greatest Cp of 0.29 was obtained with a 45% blockage ratio compared to a Cp max of 0.18 without a blockage.

Keywords: savonius hydrokinetic turbine, blockage ratio, vertical axis turbine, power coefficient

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Authors: Asma Ahmed, Farah Khalid, Sahlah Sohail, Saira Banusokwalla, Sabiha Banu, Inaara Akbar, Safia Awan, Syed Iqbal Azam

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Background and Objectives: The level of knowledge regarding obesity as a disease condition and health-seeking behavior regarding its management is grossly lacking. We present data from our multidisciplinary obesity clinic at the large tertiary care facility in Karachi, Pakistan, to provide baseline profiles and outcomes of patients attending these clinics. Methods: 260 who attended the obesity clinic between June 2018 to March 2020 were enrolled in this study. The analysis included descriptive and ROC analysis to identify the best cut-offs of theanthropometric measurements to diagnose obesity-related comorbid conditions. Results: The majority of the studied population were women (72.3%) and employed(43.7%) with a mean age of 35.5 years. Mean BMIwas 37.4, waist circumference was 112.4 cm, visceral fat was 11.7%, and HbA1C was 6.9%. The most common comorbidities were HTN & D.M (33 &31%, respectively). The prevalence of MetS was 16.3% in patients and was slightly higher in males. Visceral fat was the main factor in predicting D.M (0.750; 95% CI: 0.665, 0.836) and MetS (0.709; 95% CI: 0.590, 0.838) compared to total body fat, waist circumference, and BMI. The risk of predicting DM &MetS for the visceral fat above 9.5% in women had the highest sensitivity (80% for D.M & 79% for MetS) and an NPV (92.75% for D.M & 95% for MetS). Conclusions: This study describes and establishes characteristics of these obese individuals, which can help inform clinical practices. These practices may involve using visceral fat for earlier identification and counseling-based interventions to prevent more severe surgical interventions down the line.

Keywords: obesity, metabolic syndrome, tertiary care facility, BMI, waist circumference, visceral fat

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Authors: Omkar More, Isha Saini, Gracy Mathai

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To study whether there is any clinical correlation between pterygium and dry eye and to evaluate the status of the tear film in patients with pterygium. Methods: 100 eyes with pterygium were compared with 100 control eyes without pterygium. Patients between 20 – 70 years were included in the study. A detailed history was taken and Schirmer’s test and TBUT were performed on all to evaluate the status of dry eye. Schirmer’s test ˂ 10 mm and TBUT ˂10 seconds was considered abnormal. Results: Maximum number (52) of patients affected by dry eye in both the groups were in the age group 31-40 years which statistically showed age as a significant factor of association for both pterygium and dry eye (P < 0.01).Schirmer’s test was slightly reduced in patients with pterygium(18.73±5.69 mm). TBUT was significantly reduced in the case group (12.26±2.24sec).TBUT decreased maximally in 51-60 yrs age group (13.00±2.77sec) with pterygium showing a tear film instability. On comparison of pterygia and controls with normal and abnormal tear film, Odd’s Ratio was 1.14 showing a risk of dry eye in pterygia patients to be 1.14 times higher than controls. Conclusion: Whether tear dysfunction is a precursor to pterygium growth or pterygium causes tear dysfunction is still not clear. Research and clinical evidence, however, suggest that there is a relationship between the two. This study is, therefore, undertaken to investigate the correlation between pterygium and dry eye. The patients with pterygia were compared with normals to evaluate their status regarding dryness. A close relationship exists between ocular irritation symptoms and functional evidence of tear instability. Schirmer’s test and TBUT should routinely be used in the outpatient department to diagnose dry eye in patients with pterygium and these patients should be promptly treated to prevent any sight-threatening complications.

Keywords: footfall, nursing assessment, quality improvement, six sigma

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Authors: Dae Kyung Choi, Won Man Park, Kyungsoo Kim, Yoon Hyuk Kim

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The interspinous process devices have been recently used due to its advantages such as minimal invasiveness and less subsidence of the implant to the osteoporotic bone. In this paper, we have analyzed the influences of ligature tightening of several interspinous process devices using finite element analysis. Four types of interspinous process implants were inserted to the L3-4 spinal motion segment based on their surgical protocols. Inferior plane of L4 vertebra was fixed and 7.5 Nm of extension moment were applied on superior plane of L3 vertebra with 400N of compressive load along follower load direction and pretension of the ligature. The stability of the spinal unit was high enough than that of intact model. The higher value of pretension in the ligature led the decrease of dynamic stabilization effect in cases of the WallisTM, DiamTM, Viking, and Spear®. The results of present study could be used to evaluate surgical option and validate the biomechanical characteristics of the spinal implants.

Keywords: interspinous process device, bone fracture risk, lumbar spine, finite element analysis

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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Margin-Based Principle has been proposed for a long time, it has been proved that this principle could reduce the structural risk and improve the performance in both theoretical and practical aspects. Meanwhile, feed-forward neural network is a traditional classifier, which is very hot at present with a deeper architecture. However, the training algorithm of feed-forward neural network is developed and generated from Widrow-Hoff Principle that means to minimize the squared error. In this paper, we propose a new training algorithm for feed-forward neural networks based on Margin-Based Principle, which could effectively promote the accuracy and generalization ability of neural network classifiers with less labeled samples and flexible network. We have conducted experiments on four UCI open data sets and achieved good results as expected. In conclusion, our model could handle more sparse labeled and more high-dimension data set in a high accuracy while modification from old ANN method to our method is easy and almost free of work.

Keywords: Max-Margin Principle, Feed-Forward Neural Network, classifier, structural risk

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Authors: Tai-Yi Yu, Tai-Kue Yu

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Using global climate change as its main theme, this study establishes a model for understanding the environmental behavior of college students. It examines their beliefs about the environment, sustainability, and social impact. Theories about values, beliefs, norms, and planned behaviors helped establish the path relations among various latent variables, which include the students’ values regarding sustainability, environmental concern, social impact, perceived risk, environmental attitude, and behavioral intention. Personality traits were used as moderator variables in order to analyze their role in influencing environmental behaviors. The components-based partial least square (PLS) method was adopted, and the measurements and structural models were analyzed using the SmartPLS software. The proposed model complies with various test standards, including individual item reliability, composite reliability, average variance extracted, goodness-of-fit, and cross-validated redundancy. When college students are taught the concept of environmental sustainability, sustainability becomes an environmental attitude for them, and they are more likely to uphold an ethic of sustainability. The more an individual perceives the risks of global climate change, the stronger her emotional connection to the issue becomes. This positively affects the environmental attitude of college student, pushes them to participate more proactively in improvement activities, and encourages them to display their behavioral intention to improve global climate change. When considering the interaction effect among four latent variables (values regarding sustainability, social impact, environmental concern, and perceived risk), this study found that personality traits have a moderate effect on environmental attitude.

Keywords: partial least square, personality traits, social impact, environmental concern, perceived risk

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Authors: Byeong-Sam Kim, Jongmin Park

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The present work is motivated by the industrial challenge to produce complex composite shapes cost-effectively. The model used an anisotropical thermoviscoelastic is analyzed by an implemented finite element solver. The stress relaxation can be constructed by Prony series for the nonlinear thermoviscoelastic model. The calculation of process induced internal stresses relaxation during the cooling stage of the manufacturing cycle was carried out by the spring back phenomena observed from the part containing a cylindrical segment. The finite element results obtained from the present formulation are compared with experimental data, and the results show good correlations.

Keywords: thermoviscoelastic, springback phenomena, FEM analysis, thermoplastic composite structures

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Authors: Ditsapelo M. McFarland

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Background: Despite the availability of the Pap smear services in urban areas in Botswana, most women in such areas do not seem to screen regular for prevention of the cervical cancer disease. Reasons for non-use of the available Pap smear services are not well understood. Beliefs about cancer may influence participation in cancer screening in these women. The purpose of this study was to develop an instrument to measure beliefs about cervical cancer and Pap smear screening among Black women in Botswana, and evaluate the psychometric properties of the instrument. Significance: Instruments that are designed to measure beliefs about cervical cancer and screening among black women in Botswana, as well as in the surrounding region, are presently not available. Valid and reliable instruments are needed for exploration of the women’s beliefs about cervical cancer. Conceptual Framework: The Health Belief Model (HBM) provided a conceptual framework for the study. Methodology: The study was done in four phases: Phase 1: item generation: 15 items were generated from literature review and qualitative data for each of four conceptually defined HBM constructs: Perceived susceptibility, severity, benefits, and barriers (Version 1). Phase 2: content validity: Four experts who were advanced practice nurses of African descent and were familiar with the content and the HBM evaluated the content. Experts rated the items on a 4-point Likert scale ranging from: 1=not relevant, 2=somewhat relevant, 3=relevant and 4=very relevant. Fifty-five items were retained for instrument development: perceived susceptibility - 11, severity - 14, benefits - 15 and barriers - 15, all measuring on a 4-point Likert scale ranging from strongly disagree (1) to strongly agree (4). (Version 2). Phase 3: pilot testing: The instrument was pilot tested on a convenient sample of 30 women in Botswana and revised as needed. Phase 4: reliability: the revised instrument (Version 3) was submitted to a larger sample of women in Botswana (n=300) for reliability testing. The sample included women who were Batswana by birth and decent, were aged 30 years and above and could complete an English questionnaire. Data were collected with the assistance of trained research assistants. Major findings: confirmatory factor analysis of the 55 items found that a number of items did not adequately load in a four-factor solution. Items that exhibited reasonable reliability and had low frequency of missing values (n=36) were retained: perceived barriers (14 items), perceived benefits (8 items), perceived severity (4 items), and perceived susceptibility (10 items). confirmatory factor analysis (principle components) for a four factor solution using varimax rotation demonstrated that these four factors explained 43% of the variation in these 36 items. Conclusion: reliability analysis using Cronbach’s Alpha gave generally satisfactory results with values from 0.53 to 0.89.

Keywords: cervical cancer, factor analysis, psychometric evaluation, varimax rotation

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Authors: Oghenerume V. Edah, Damilola T. Aladejana

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Entrepreneurship Education is the process of developing and acquiring entrepreneur skills on how to identify a new business and launching the business with the realization of yielding profit optimally. It’s the process of knowing how to take risk and handle challenges that accompanies a new business without the mindset of closing it when it fails. It includes steps to take when a business is recognized, combined with acquiring resources (e.g. finances, labor, land) in the face of risk and launching the new business. Additionally, Entrepreneurship is defined as the ability and willingness to set a business in the event of making profit. It is the act of starting up a business to solve big problems or present a new life-changing solution in the society to generate profit. It’s a process where a business opportunity is identified; planned, acquired and needful steps are taken to launch a business. This involves taking up financial risk, acquiring natural resources, combined with land, capital and building up a team of people who would individually contribute or add value in order to make the new business a success. Moreover, Education is the learning of new skills or value. It’s the acquiring of knowledge and capability of doing new things. It is been able to differentiate what you know and what you don’t know yet. In this modern world, the emergence of entrepreneurship education has been magnificent. An average of 60 percent humans wants to start a business or become an entrepreneur without knowing the steps on how to startup. Moreover, many of them are good starters and they end up failing when the business is not managed well. The introduction of Entrepreneur Education in our world today would change the face of business phenomenally. It would involve the acquisition of entrepreneur skills, knowledge and attitude towards initiating a business venture. The impact of Entrepreneurship Education in our world today would increase the chances of business success because it would generate better entrepreneurs. The skills, values, concept and processes acquired through learning have changed the face of business to a positive direction globally and the impact can be felt. Entrepreneurship can be taught and also can be learnt. Like any skills it can be known.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, education, business, entrepreneur, skills

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Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

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This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

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Authors: L. Kloetzer, M. Poştaru, A. I. Galaction, D. Caşcaval

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Gentamicin is an aminoglycoside antibiotic industrially obtained by biosynthesis of Micromonospora purpurea or echinospora, the product being a complex mixture of components with very similar structures. Among them, three exhibit the most important biological activity: gentamicins C1, C1a, C2, and C2a. The separation of gentamicin from the fermentation broths at industrial scale is rather difficult and it does not allow the fractionation of the complex mixture of gentamicins in order to increase the therapeutic activity of the product. The aim of our experiments is to analyze the possibility to selectively separate the less active gentamicin, namely gentamicin C1, from the biosynthetic mixture by reactive extraction with di-(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid (D2EHPA) dissolved in dichloromethane, followed selective re-extraction of the most active gentamicins C1a, C2, and C2a. The experiments on the reactive extraction of gentamicins indicated the possibility to separate selectively the gentamicin C1 from the mixture obtained by biosynthesis. The extraction selectivity is positively influenced by increasing the pH-value of an aqueous solution and by using a D2EHPA concentration in organic phase closer to the value needed for an equimolecular ratio between the extractant and this gentamicin. For quantifying the selectivity of separation, the selectivity factor, calculated as the ratio between the degree of reactive extraction of gentamicin C1 and the overall extraction degree of gentamicins were used. The possibility to remove the gentamicin C1 at an extractant concentration of 10 g l-1 and pH = 8 is presented. In these conditions, it was obtained the maximum value of the selectivity factor of 2.14, which corresponds to the modification of the gentamicin C1 concentration from 31.92% in the biosynthetic mixture to 72% in the extract. The re-extraction of gentamicins C1, C1a, C2, and C2a with sulfuric acid from the extract previously obtained by reactive extraction (mixture A – extract obtained by non-selective reactive extraction; mixture B – extract obtained by selective reactive extraction) allows for separating selectively the most active gentamicins C1a, C2, and C2a. For recovering only the active gentamicins C1a, C2, and C2a, the re-extraction must be carried out at very low acid concentrations, far below those corresponding to the stoichiometry of its chemical reactions with these gentamicins. Therefore, the mixture resulted by re-extraction contained 92.6% gentamicins C1a, C2, and C2a. By bringing together the aqueous solutions obtained by reactive extraction and re-extraction, the overall content of the active gentamicins in the final product becomes 89%, their loss reaching 0.3% related to the initial biosynthetic product.

Keywords: di-(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid, gentamicin, reactive extraction, selectivity factor

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Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

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Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Deepa Shokeen, Bani Tamber Aeri

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Food choice is a complex process influenced by the interplay of multiple factors, including physical, socio-cultural and economic factors comprising macro or micro level food environments. While a clear understanding of the relationship between what we eat and the environmental context in which these food choices are made is still needed; it has however now been shown that food environments do play a significant role in the obesity epidemic and increasing cardio-metabolic risk factors. Evidence in other countries indicates that the food environment may strongly influence the prevalence of obesity and cardio-metabolic risk factors among young adults. Although in the Indian context, data does indicate the associations between sedentary lifestyle, stress, faulty diets but very little evidence supports the role of food environment in influencing cardio-metabolic health among employed adults. Thus, this research is required to establish how different environments affect different individuals as individuals interact with the environment on a number of levels. Methodology: The objective of the present study is to assess the effect of selected food and nutrition environments with emphasis on worksite environment and to analyse its impact on the food choices and dietary behaviour of the employees (25-45 years of age) of the organizations under study. In the proposed study an attempt will be made to randomly select various worksite environments from Delhi and NCR. The study will be conducted in two phases. In phase I, Information will be obtained on their socio-demographic profile and various factors influencing their food choices including most commonly consumed foods and most frequently visited eating outlets in and around the work place. Data will also be gathered on anthropometry (height, weight, waist circumference), biochemical parameters (lipid profile and fasting glucose), blood pressure and dietary intake. Based on the findings of phase I, a list of the most frequently visited eating outlets in and around the workplace will be prepared in Phase II. These outlets will then be subjected to nutrition environment assessment survey (NEMS). On the basis of the information gathered from phase I and phase II, influence of selected food and nutrition environments on food choice, dietary behaviour and prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors among employed adults will be assessed. Expected outcomes: The proposed study will try to ascertain the impact of selected food and nutrition environments on food choice and dietary intake of the working adults as it is important to learn how these food environments influence the eating perceptions and health behavior of the adults. In addition to this, anthropometry blood pressure and biochemical assessment of the subjects will be done to assess the prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors. If the findings indicate that the work environment, where most of these young adults spend their productive hours of the day, influence their health, than perhaps steps maybe needed to make these environments more conducive to health.

Keywords: food and nutrition environment, cardio-metabolic risk factors, India, worksite environment

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Authors: Jun Liu

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new bipartite key agreement (2PKA) protocol which provides unconditionally security and lightweight. The unconditional security is stemmed from the known impossibility of distinguishing a particular solution from all possible solutions of an underdetermined system of equations. The indistinguishability prevents an adversary from inferring to the common secret-key even with the access to an unlimited amount of computing capability. This new 2PKA protocol is also lightweight because that the calculation of a common secret-key only makes use of simple modular arithmetic. This information-theoretic 2PKA scheme provides the desired features of Key Confirmation (KC), Session Key (SK) security, Know-Key (KK) security, protection of individual privacy, and uniformly distributed value of a common key under prime modulus.

Keywords: bipartite key agreement, information-theoretic cryptography, perfect security, lightweight

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Authors: El-Said. I. Shabana, Mohammad S. Tayeb, Maher M. T. Qutub, Abdulraheem A. Kinsara

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Usually, phosphate deposits contain ²³⁸U and ²³²Th in addition to their decay products. Due to their different pathways in the environment, the ²³⁸U/²³²Th activity concentration ratio usually found to be greater than unity in phosphate sediments. The presence of these radionuclides creates a potential need to control exposure of workers in the mining and processing activities of the phosphate minerals in accordance with IAEA safety standards. The greatest dose to workers comes from exposure to radon, especially ²²²Rn from the uranium series, and has to be controlled. In this regard, radon (²²²Rn) was measured in the atmosphere (indoor and outdoor) of Al-Jalamid phosphate-mines working area using a portable radon-measurement instrument RAD7, in a purpose of radiation protection. Radon was measured in 61 sites inside the open phosphate mines, the phosphate upgrading facility (offices and rooms of the workers, and in some open-air sites) and in the dwellings of the workers residence-village that lies at about 3 km from the mines working area. The obtained results indicated that the average indoor radon concentration was about 48.4 Bq/m³. Inside the upgrading facility, the average outdoor concentrations were 10.8 and 9.7 Bq/m³ in the concentrate piles and crushing areas, respectively. It was 12.3 Bq/m³ in the atmosphere of the open mines. These values are comparable with the global average values. Based on the average values, the annual effective dose due to radon inhalation was calculated and risk estimates have been done. The average annual effective dose to workers due to the radon inhalation was estimated by 1.32 mSv. The potential excess risk of lung cancer mortality that could be attributed to radon, when considering the lifetime exposure, was estimated by 53.0x10^-4. The results have been discussed in detail.

Keywords: dosimetry, environmental monitoring, phosphate deposits, radiation protection, radon

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Authors: Priyanka Manghani, Manthan Patel, Rahul Peddawad

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Cervical Cancer is a major public health hurdle in the area of women’s health. The most common cause of Cervical Cancer is the Human Papilloma Virus (HPV). Human papilloma virus has various genotypes, with HPV 16 and HPV 18 being the major etiological factor causing carcinoma of the Cervix. Early screening and detection by Papanicolaou Smears (PAP) is an effective method for identifying premalignant and malignant lesions. In case of existing pre- malignant lesions /cervical dysplasia’s found with HPV 16 or 18, appropriate follow up can be done to prevent it from developing into a neoplasm. Aims and Objectives: Primary Aim; To study various abnormal cervical cytology reports as detected by Pap Smear Tests, using the Bethesda System in women at a Tertiary Care Hospital. Secondary Aim; To discuss the importance of Pap smear in Cervical Cancer Screening Program. Materials and Methods: Our study is a prospective study, based on 101 women who attended the Out-patient department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at a tertiary care hospital in age group 20-40 years with chief complaints of white/foul vaginal discharge, post-coital Bleeding, low back pain, irregular menstruation, etc. 60 women, who were tested, of the total no of women, were commercial sex workers, thus being a high-risk group for HPV infection. All women underwent conventional cytology. For all the abnormal smears, further cervical biopsies were done, and the final diagnosis was done on the basis of histopathology (gold standard). Results: In all these patients, 16 patients presented with normal smears out of which 2 belonged to the category of commercial sex workers (3.33%) and 14 being from the normal/control group (34.15%). 44 women presented with inflammatory smears out of which 30 were commercial sex workers (50%) and 14 from the control Group (34.15%). A total of 11 women presented with infectious etiology with 6 being commercial sex workers (10%) and 5 (12.2%) being in the control group. A total of 8 patients presented with low-grade squamous intra epithelial lesion (LSIL) with 7 (11.7%) being commercial sex workers and 1(2.44%) patient belonging to the control group. A Total of 7 patients presented with high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) with 6 (10%) being commercial sex workers and 1 (2.44%) belonging to the control group. 9 patients in total presented with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) with 6(10%) being commercial sex workers and 3 (7.32%) belonging to the control group. Squamous cell carcinoma(SCC) presence was found only in 1(1.7%) commercial sex worker. Conclusion – We conclude that HSIL, LSIL, SCC and sexually related infections are comparatively more common in vulnerable groups such as sex workers due to a variety of factors such as multiple sexual partners and poor genital hygiene. Early screening and follow up interventions are highly needed for them along with Health education for risk factors and to emphasize on the importance of Pap smear screening.

Keywords: cervical cancer, papanicolaou (pap) smear, bethesda system, neoplasm

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Authors: Vanessa Bennemann, Gabriela Laste, Márcia Inês Goettert

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The gestational period is a phase in which the pregnant woman undergoes constant physiological and hormonal changes, which are part of the woman’s biological cycle, the development of the fetus, childbirth, and lactation. These are factors of response to the immunological adaptation of the human reproductive process that is directly related to the pregnancy’s well-being and development. Although most pregnancies occur without complications, about 15% of pregnant women will develop potentially fatal complications, implying maternal and fetal risk. Therefore, requiring specialized care for high-risk pregnant women (HRPW) with obstetric interventions for the survival of the mother and/or fetus. Among the risk factors that characterize HRPW are the women's age, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), autoimmune diseases, infectious diseases such as syphilis and HIV, hypertension (SAH), preeclampsia, eclampsia, HELLP syndrome, uterine contraction abnormalities, and premature placental detachment (PPD), thyroid disorders, among others. Thus, pregnancy has an impact on the thyroid gland causing changes in the functioning of the mother's thyroid gland, altering the thyroid hormone (TH) profiles and production as pregnancy progresses. Considering, throughout the gestational period, the interpretation of the results of the tests to evaluate the thyroid functioning depends on the stage in which the pregnancy is. Thyroid disorders are directly related to adverse obstetric outcomes and in child development. Therefore, the adequate release of TH is important for a pregnancy without complications and optimal fetal growth and development. Objective: Investigate the physiological effects caused by thyroid disorders in the gestational period. Methods: A search for articles indexed in PubMed, Scielo, and MDPI databases, was performed using the term “AND”, with the descriptors: Pregnancy, Thyroid. With several combinations that included: Melatonin, Thyroidopathy, Inflammatory processes, Cytokines, Anti-inflammatory, Antioxidant, High-risk pregnancy. Subsequently, the screening was performed through the analysis of titles and/or abstracts. The criteria were: including clinical studies in general, randomized or not, in the period of 10 years prior to the research, in the English literature; excluded: experimental studies, case reports, research in the development phase. Results: In the preliminary results, a total of studies (n=183) were found, (n=57) excluded, such as studies of cancer, diabetes, obesity, and skin diseases. Conclusion: To date, it has been identified that thyroid diseases can impair the fetus’s brain development. Further research is suggested on this matter to identify new substances that may have a potential therapeutic effect to aid the gestational period with thyroid diseases.

Keywords: pregnancy, thyroid, melatonin, high-risk pregnancy

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Authors: Made Kurnia Widiastuti Giri, Nyoman Kanca, Arie Swastini, Bambang Purwanto

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Aim: Waria transgenders are a phenomenon whose existence is undeniable. The sexual behaviours of waria transgenders belong to the groups of high-risk STDs infections, especially HIV/AIDS. The present study was aimed at finding out the general idea of the existence of waria transgenders in Singaraja, their sexual transactions, their sexual behaviours, and at exploring the factors affecting their sexual behaviours along with their participation in regular reproduction health control. Methods: The subjects of the present research were male-to-female transgenders living in the town of Singaraja. The research applied a qualitative approach. Data collection in this research was conducted through in-depth interview and observation. Results: The results of the study exposed 1) the existence of waria transgender community in Singaraja observed from their active participation in social events such as taking the roles of counsellors in the campaign of prevention and control of HIV/AIDS with the Local Commission of AIDS Control and other foundations; 2) the sexual services provided by waria transgenders which were performed in squeeze method, oral and anal sex which could be categorized as HIV/AIDS high-risk sexual behaviours, while the consistency in doing safe sex among the trangenders in Singaraja showed that most of the waria transgenders (80%) were aware of the urgency of using condoms during sexual intercourse; and 3) the low participation of the waria transgenders in Singaraja in regular reproduction health check up at the local Centre of Public Health Service was caused by their negative perception about being examined by female doctors. Conclucions: Waria in singaraja categorized as HIV/AIDS high-risk sexual behaviours but they do have consistency in doing safe sex by using condoms. They have a negative psychological perception about being examined by female doctors.

Keywords: waria transgenders, sexual behaviours, reproduction health, hiv/aids

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Muhammad Karim Ahmadzai

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Floods are natural phenomena and are an integral part of the water cycle. The majority of them are the result of climatic conditions, but are also affected by the geology and geomorphology of the area, topography and hydrology, the water permeability of the soil and the vegetation cover, as well as by all kinds of human activities and structures. However, from the moment that human lives are at risk and significant economic impact is recorded, this natural phenomenon becomes a natural disaster. Flood management is now a key issue at regional and local levels around the world, affecting human lives and activities. The majority of floods are unlikely to be fully predicted, but it is feasible to reduce their risks through appropriate management plans and constructions. The aim of this Case Study is to identify, and map areas of flood risk in the Khinch District of Panjshir Province, Afghanistan specifically in the area of Peshghore, causing numerous damages. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the contribution of remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing the susceptibility of this region to flood events. Panjsher is facing Seasonal floods and human interventions on streams caused floods. The beds of which have been trampled to build houses and hotels or have been converted into roads, are causing flooding after every heavy rainfall. The streams crossing settlements and areas with high touristic development have been intensively modified by humans, as the pressure for real estate development land is growing. In particular, several areas in Khinch are facing a high risk of extensive flood occurrence. This study concentrates on the construction of a flood susceptibility map, of the study area, by combining vulnerability elements, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process/ AHP. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, normally called AHP, is a powerful yet simple method for making decisions. It is commonly used for project prioritization and selection. AHP lets you capture your strategic goals as a set of weighted criteria that you then use to score projects. This method is used to provide weights for each criterion which Contributes to the Flood Event. After processing of a digital elevation model (DEM), important secondary data were extracted, such as the slope map, the flow direction and the flow accumulation. Together with additional thematic information (Landuse and Landcover, topographic wetness index, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Elevation, River Density, Distance from River, Distance to Road, Slope), these led to the final Flood Risk Map. Finally, according to this map, the Priority Protection Areas and Villages and the structural and nonstructural measures were demonstrated to Minimize the Impacts of Floods on residential and Agricultural areas.

Keywords: flood hazard, flood risk map, flood mitigation measures, AHP analysis

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Authors: Amani Kappi, Ana Maria Linares, Gia Mudd-Martin

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Children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) are more likely to develop social skills deficits that can lead to academic underachievement, peer rejection, and maladjustment. Surveying teachers about children's social skills with ADHD will become a significant factor in identifying whether the children will be diagnosed with social skills deficits. The teacher-specific version of the Social Skills Rating System scale (SSRS-T) has been used as a screening tool for children's social behaviors. The psychometric properties of the SSRS-T have been evaluated in various populations and settings, such as when used by teachers to assess social skills for children with learning disabilities. However, few studies have been conducted to examine the psychometric properties of the SSRS-T when used to assess children with ADHD. The purpose of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of the SSRS-T and two SSRS-T subscales, Social Skills and Problem Behaviors. This was a secondary analysis of longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study. This study included a sample of 194 teachers who used the SSRS-T to assess the social skills of children aged 8 to 10 years with ADHD. Exploratory principal components factor analysis was used to assess the construct validity of the SSRS-T scale. Cronbach’s alpha value was used to assess the internal consistency reliability of the total SSRS-T scale and the subscales. Item analyses included item-item intercorrelations, item-to-subscale correlations, and Cronbach’s alpha value changes with item deletion. The results of internal consistency reliability for both the total scale and subscales were acceptable. The results of the exploratory factor analysis supported the five factors of SSRS-T (Cooperation, Self-control, Assertion, Internalize behaviors, and Externalize behaviors) reported in the original version. Findings indicated that SSRS-T is a reliable and valid tool for assessing the social behaviors of children with ADHD.

Keywords: ADHD, children, social skills, SSRS-T, psychometric properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Hong Su, Qiuju Yan, Wei Du, En Hu, Zhaoyu Yang, Wei Zhang, Yusheng Li, Tao Tang, Wang yang, Shushan Zhao

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Osteoarthritis (OA) is a severe chronic inflammatory disease. As the main active component of Astragalus mongholicus Bunge, a classic traditional ethnic herb, calycosin exhibits anti-inflammatory action and its mechanism of exact targets for OA have yet to be determined. In this study, we established an anterior cruciate ligament transection (ACLT) mouse model. Mice were randomized to sham, OA, and calycosin groups. Cartilage synthesis markers type II collagen (Col-2) and SRY-Box Transcription Factor 9 (Sox-9) increased significantly after calycosin gavage. While cartilage matrix degradation index cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), phosphor-epidermal growth factor receptor (p-EGFR), and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP9) expression were decreased. With the help of network pharmacology and molecular docking, these results were confirmed in chondrocyte ATDC5 cells. Our results indicated that the calycosin treatment significantly improved cartilage damage, this was probably attributed to reversing the imbalance between chondrocyte synthesis and catabolism.

Keywords: calycosin, osteoarthritis, network pharmacology, molecular docking, inflammatory, cyclooxygenase 2

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Authors: Jaime Carpio-García, Elena Blanco-Fernández, Javier González-Fernández, Daniel Castro-Fresno

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Sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) are more often used in order to prevent floods, water treatment, fight against pollution, urban heat island effect, and global warming in applications like green roofs, permeable pavements, and others. Furthermore, geosynthetics are also worldwide used as a part of drainage systems in road construction. Geotextiles are an essential part of both, and one of the main geotextile properties in those applications is permeability, whose behavior is not well established along its service life. In this paper, clogging reduction design factors for an estimated service life of 25 years are experimentally obtained for five different geotextiles used in SUDS and roads combined with two different soils and with two pollutants, motor oil, and lime, in order to evaluate chemical clogging, too. The effect of characteristic opening size and other characteristics of the geosynthetics are also discussed in order to give civil engineers, together with the clogging reduction factors, a better long-time design of geotextiles used in their SUDS and roads.

Keywords: geotextiles, drainage, clogging, reduction factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Samira Ghasempourkazemi

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In terms of the COVID-19 pandemic, lots of mutations in the urban system, which have systemic impacts, have clearly appeared. COVID-19 not only had a direct impact on health but also caused significant losses to other departments, including the economy, education, tourism, environment and the construction industry. Therefore, the pandemic caused a disruption in the whole urban system. Particularly, today’s large urban areas are not designed in order to be compatible during a pandemic. Hence, cities are more vulnerable to infectious disease threats according to the population density, built environment and socioeconomic aspects. Considering the direct relationship between population and rate of infection, higher rates are given to those individuals located in areas with high-density populations. Population density can be a factor that seems to have a strong impact on the spread of infectious diseases. Thus, the preliminary hypothesis can be related to a densely populated areas which become hotspots for the rapid spread of the pandemic due to high levels of interaction. In addition, some other indicators can be effective in this condition, such as age range, education and socio-economy. To figure out the measure of infectious disease risk in densely populated areas in Istanbul is an objective of this study. Besides, this study intends to figure out Vulnerability Index in the case of COVID-19. In order to achieve the proper result, the considered method can be Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by involving the mentioned variables. In the end, the study represents the COVID Vulnerability of densely populated areas in a metro city and the gaps that need to be identified and plugged for the pandemic-resilience city of tomorrow.

Keywords: infectious disease, COVID-19, urban system, densely populated area

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Authors: Siddharth Jain, Abhenil Mittal, Surendra Kumar Sharma

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Background: With its recent emergence and re-emergence, dengue has become a major international public health concern, imposing significant financial burden especially in developing countries. Despite aggressive control measures in place, India experienced one of its largest outbreaks in 2015 with Delhi being most severely affected. There is a lack of reliable predictors of disease severity and mortality in dengue. The present study was carried out to identify these predictors during the 2015 outbreak. Methods: This prospective observational study conducted at an apex tertiary care center in Delhi, India included confirmed adult dengue patients admitted between August-November 2015. Patient demographics, clinical details, and laboratory findings were recorded in a predesigned proforma. Appropriate statistical tests were used to summarize and compare the clinical and laboratory characteristics and derive predictors of mortality and severe disease, while developing a clinical risk score for mortality. Serotype analysis was also done for 75 representative samples to identify the dominant serotypes. Results: Data of 369 patients were analyzed (mean age 30.9 years; 67% males). Of these, 198 (54%) patients had dengue fever, 125 (34%) had dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF Grade 1,2)and 46 (12%) developed dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Twenty two (6%) patients died. Late presentation to the hospital (≥5 days after onset) and dyspnoea at rest were identified as independent predictors of severe disease. Age ≥ 24 years, dyspnoea at rest and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. A clinical risk score was developed (12*age + 14*sensorium + 10*dyspnoea) which, if ≥ 22, predicted mortality with a high sensitivity (81.8%) and specificity (79.2%). The predominant serotypes in Delhi (2015) were DENV-2 and DENV-4. Conclusion: Age ≥ 24 years, dyspnoea at rest and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Platelet counts did not determine the outcome in dengue patients. Timely referral/access to health care is important. Development and use of validated predictors of disease severity and simple clinical risk scores, which can be applied in all healthcare settings, can help minimize mortality and morbidity, especially in resource limited settings.

Keywords: dengue, mortality, predictors, severity

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Jonas Hinker, Lisa Zumholz, Johanna M. A. Myrzik

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Despite strong efforts by the German government to make a transition to higher quality level of building stocks, the rate of renovation continues to remain below the proclaimed level of 2%. As the mandatory standards for residential retrofits are well-balanced in such a way that strict adherence to them guarantees profit from the investment, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons why there are so many people hesitant with their investments. Risks and transaction costs can be understood as socio-technical boundaries and have to be taken into consideration to be able to understand why a worthwhile investment is postponed or rejected. This paper therefore presents a method for investment analyses that is focused on such socio-technical constraints, which helps to reveal the strongest misconceptions of home owners. By depicting sensitivities and risk factors in an integrated and impartial way, such a tool can be utilized by home owners to address reservations and misunderstandings. In the end, this leads to an exploitation of smaller energy efficiency measures that makes up a big demand reduction in the residential sector altogether.

Keywords: energy refurbishment, investment analysis, residential buildings, risk-aware investment strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 513