Search results for: risk mitigation

Authors: Sukalyan Chakraborty

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Arsenic contamination in groundwater has been a matter of serious concern worldwide. Globally, arsenic contaminated water has caused serious chronic human diseases and in the last few decades the transfer of arsenic to human beings via food chain has gained much attention because food represents a further potential exposure pathway to arsenic in instances where crops are irrigated with high arsenic groundwater, grown in contaminated fields or cooked with arsenic laden water. In the present study, the groundwater of Sahibganj district of Jharkhand has been analysed to find the degree of contamination and its probable associated risk due to direct consumption or irrigation. The present study area comprising of three blocks, namely Sahibganj, Rajmahal and Udhwa in Sahibganj district of Jharkhand state, India, situated in the western bank of river Ganga has been investigated for arsenic contamination in groundwater, soil and crops predominantly growing in the region. Associated physicochemical parameters of groundwater including pH, temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), dissolved oxygen (DO), oxidation reduction potential (ORP), ammonium, nitrate and chloride were assessed to understand the mobilisation mechanism and chances of arsenic exposure from soil to crops and further into the food chain. Results suggested the groundwater to be dominantly Ca-HCO3- type with low redox potential and high total dissolved solids load. Major cations followed the order of Ca ˃ Na ˃ Mg ˃ K. The concentration of major anions was found in the order of HCO3− > Cl− > SO42− > NO3− > PO43− varied between 0.009 to 0.20 mg L-1. Fe concentrations of the groundwater samples were below WHO permissible limit varying between 54 to 344 µg L-1. Phosphate concentration was high and showed a significant positive correlation with arsenic. As concentrations ranged from 7 to 115 µg L-1 in premonsoon, between 2 and 98 µg L-1 in monsoon and 1 to 133µg L-1 in postmonsoon season. Arsenic concentration was found to be much higher than the WHO or BIS permissible limit in majority of the villages in the study area. Arsenic was also seen to be positively correlated with iron and phosphate. PCA results demonstrated the role of both geological condition and anthropogenic inputs to influence the water quality. Arsenic was also found to increase with depth up to 100 m from the surface. Calculation of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects of the arsenic concentration in the communities exposed to the groundwater for drinking and other purpose indicated high risk with an average of more than 1 in a 1000 population. Health risk analysis revealed high to very high carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk for adults and children in the communities dependent on groundwater of the study area. Observation suggested the groundwater to be considerably polluted with arsenic and posing significant health risk for the exposed communities. The mobilisation mechanism of arsenic also could be identified from the results suggesting reductive dissolution of Fe oxyhydroxides due to high phosphate concentration from agricultural input arsenic release from the sediments along river Ganges.

Keywords: arsenic, physicochemical parameters, mobilisation, health effects

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Authors: John Gaber, Youssef Ahmed, Hossam A.Gabbar, Jing Ren

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Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) operators have a large responsibility on their shoulders. They must allow the plant to generate a high amount of energy while inspecting and maintaining the safety of the plant. This type of occupation comes with high amounts of mental fatigue, and a small mistake can have grave consequences. Electroencephalography (EEG) is a method of gathering the electromagnetic waves emitted by a human brain. We propose a safety system by monitoring brainwaves for signs of mental fatigue. This requires an analysis of the tasks and mental models of the NPP operator, as well as risk factors on mental fatigue and attention that NPP operators face when performing their tasks. The brain waves generated from experiencing mental fatigue can then be monitored for. These factors are analyzed, developing an EEG-based monitoring system, which aims to alert NPP operators when levels of mental fatigue and attention start affecting their performance in task completion.

Keywords: EEG, power plant operator, psychology, task analysis

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Authors: Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Seyed Bahman Ghaderian, Homeira Rashidi, Mahmoud Mapar

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Background and Objective The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is considered the most important public health threat of the 21st century. This syndrome is characterized by a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors including increased central abdominal obesity, elevated triglycerides, reduced high-density lipoprotein, high blood pressure, increased fasting glucose, and hyperinsulinemia. MetS has been associated with hypogonadism and erectile dysfunction (ED), and MetS may be considered a risk factor for ED. The aim of this study was finding an association between metabolic syndrome and hypogonadism in Khouzestan, Iran. Subjects and Methods: In this study, 60 patients divided into two groups consisted of 30 cases (with metabolic syndrome) and 30 controls. Total and free Serum Testosterone and FBS in all of them were measured. Data was analyzed with SPSS20 program. Results: There was a significant difference between two groups about free Testosterone (P=0.01), FBS (P=0.002) and LH (P=0.03). Conclusion: According to this finding, it is thought the prevalence of hypogonadism in men with metabolic syndrome is more than the general population.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, fasting blood sugar, hypogonadism, testosterone

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Authors: Malgorzata Sekulowicz, Krystyna Boron-Krupinska, Paulina Morga, Blazej Cieslik

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Burnout is highly prevalent in health care employees, especially in physicians. It significantly reduces the efficiency of these employees, which can have negative consequences for both physicians and patients. Resilience and mindfulness enhancing positive emotions, leading to sustainable development and personal commitment, can have a significant impact on burnout. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the relationship between burnout symptoms and mindfulness and resilience among physicians. The authors conducted a cross-sectional survey study among seventy-four polish physicians. Participants filled out the following psychometric tools: the Maslach Burnout Inventory - Human Services Survey (MBI-HSS), Five Facet Mindfulness Questionnaire (FFMQ), Areas of Work-Life Survey (AWS), International Personality Item Pool (IPIP), the Resilience Assessment Scale (SPP-25) and the Mini-COPE Inventory. The relationship between burnout and resilience and mindfulness was assessed with path analysis. Analyzing the relationship between MBI-HSS components and mindfulness, a significant negative correlation of the FFMQ score with emotional exhaustion (-0.50, p < 0.05) and depersonalization (-0.43, p < 0.05) and a positive correlation with personal accomplishment (0.50, p < 0.05) was demonstrated. Analyzing resilience, a statistically significant relationship of SPP-25 with all tested components of MBI-HSS was demonstrated: emotional exhaustion (-0.54, p < 0.05), depersonalization (-0.31, p < 0.05) and personal accomplishment (0.35, p < 0.05). In the group of medical doctors, the higher the level of mindfulness and resilience, the lower the risk of burnout. Furthermore, the more frequently used active coping strategies (planning, acceptance), the lower the risk of burnout, while the use of passive, evasive strategies increases the risk of burnout. It may be worth considering implementing mindfulness intervention to effectively manage burnout symptoms in this group.

Keywords: burnout, medical doctors, mindfulness, physicians, resilience

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejia, Jenny Paola Forero Pachon, Luis Carlos Gomez Florez

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The innumerable possibilities offered by the use of Information Technology (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities has made a change in the social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. The Colombian government, aware of this reality, has been promoting the use of IT as part of the E-government strategy adopted in the country. However, it is well known that the use of IT implies the existence of certain threats that put the security of information in the digital environment at risk. One of the priorities of the Colombian government is to improve access to alternative justice through IT, in particular, access to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR): conciliation, arbitration and friendly composition; by means of which it is sought that the citizens directly resolve their differences. To this end, a trend has been identified in the use of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) systems, which extend the benefits of ADR to the digital environment through the use of IT. This article presents a process for the analysis of information security risks associated with the incorporation of ODR systems in the context of conciliation in Colombia, based on four fundamental stages identified in the literature: (I) Identification of assets, (II) Identification of threats and vulnerabilities (III) Estimation of the impact and 4) Estimation of risk levels. The methodological design adopted for this research was the grounded theory, since it involves interactions that are applied to a specific context and from the perspective of diverse participants. As a result of this investigation, the activities to be followed are defined to carry out an analysis of information security risks, in the context of the conciliation in Colombia supported by ODR systems, thus contributing to the estimation of the risks to make possible its subsequent treatment.

Keywords: alternative dispute resolution, conciliation, information security, online dispute resolution systems, process, risk analysis

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Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: P. Chang, C. Lopez, C. Burbano

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Flood protection zones are riparian buffers that are formed to manage and mitigate the impact of flooding, and in turn, protect local populations. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Guía Técnica de Criterios para el Acotamiento de las Rondas Hídricas in Colombia against international regulations in Canada and Spain, in order to determine its limitations and contribute to its improvement. The need to establish a specific corridor that allows for the dynamic development of a river is clear; however, limitations present in the Colombian Technical Guide are identified. The study shows that international regulations provide similar concepts as used in Colombia, but additionally integrate aspects such as regionalization that allows for a better characterization of the channel way, and incorporate the frequency of flooding and its probability of occurrence in the concept of risk when determining the protection zone. The case study analyzed in Dosquebradas - Risaralda aimed at comparing the application of the different standards through hydraulic modeling. It highlights that the current Colombian standard does not offer sufficient details in its implementation phase, which leads to a false sense of security related to inaccuracy and lack of data. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how the Colombian norm is ill-adapted to the conditions of Dosquebradas typical of the Andes region, both in the social and hydraulic aspects, and does not reduce the risk, nor does it improve the protection of the population. Our study considers it pertinent to include risk estimation as an integral part of the methodology when establishing protect flood zone, considering the particularity of water systems, as they are characterized by an heterogeneous natural dynamic behavior.

Keywords: environmental corridor, flood zone determination, hydraulic domain, legislation flood protection zone

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Authors: Arvind Dhingra, Ashwani Kumar Sharma

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Power quality is an important parameter for today’s consumers. Various custom power devices are in use to give a proper supply of power quality. Dynamic Voltage Restorer is one such custom power device. DVR is a static VAR device which is used for series compensation. It is a power electronic device that is used to inject a voltage in series and in synchronism to compensate for the sag in voltage. Inductive Loads are a major source of power quality distortion. The induction furnace is one such typical load. A typical induction furnace is used for melting the scrap or iron. At the time of starting the melting process, the power quality is distorted to a large extent especially with the induction of harmonics. DVR is one such approach to mitigate these harmonics. This paper is an attempt to overview the various control strategies being followed for control of power quality by using DVR. An overview of control of harmonics using DVR is also presented.

Keywords: DVR, power quality, harmonics, harmonic mitigation

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Authors: Alex Ellery

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Geoengineering approaches to climate change mitigation are unpopular and regarded with suspicion. Of these, space-based approaches are regarded as unworkable and enormously costly. Here, a space-based approach is presented that is modest in cost, fully controllable and reversible, and acts as a natural spur to the development of solar power satellites over the longer term as a clean source of energy. The low-cost approach exploits self-replication technology which it is proposed may be enabled by 3D printing technology. Self-replication of 3D printing platforms will enable mass production of simple spacecraft units. Key elements being developed are 3D-printable electric motors and 3D-printable vacuum tube-based electronics. The power of such technologies will open up enormous possibilities at low cost including space-based geoengineering.

Keywords: 3D printing, in-situ resource utilization, self-replication technology, space-based geoengineering

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Authors: Hanan Badr, Fahad Manee, Rao Shashidhar, Omar Bayoumy

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Introduction: Hypertension is the major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and stroke and a universe leading cause of disability-adjusted life years and mortality. Adopting an unhealthy lifestyle is thought to be associated with developing hypertension regardless of predisposing genetic factors. This study aimed to examine the association between recreational physical activity (RPA), and sedentary behaviors with a risk of hypertension among ministry employees, where there is no role for occupational physical activity (PA), and to scrutinize participants’ time spent in RPA and sedentary behaviors on the working and weekend days. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 2562 employees working at ten randomly selected ministries in Kuwait. To have a representative sample, the proportional allocation technique was used to define the number of participants in each ministry. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data about participants' socio-demographic characteristics, health status, and their 24 hours’ time use during a regular working day and a weekend day. The time use covered a list of 20 different activities practiced by a person daily. The New Zealand Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (NZPAQ-SF) was used to assess the level of RPA. The scale generates three categories according to the number of hours spent in RPA/week: relatively inactive, relatively active, and highly active. Gender-matched trained nurses performed anthropometric measurements (weight and height) and measuring blood pressure (two readings) using an automatic blood pressure monitor (95% accuracy level compared to a calibrated mercury sphygmomanometer). Results: Participants’ mean age was 35.3±8.4 years, with almost equal gender distribution. About 13% of the participants were smokers, and 75% were overweight. Almost 10% reported doctor-diagnosed hypertension. Among those who did not, the mean systolic blood pressure was 119.9±14.2 and the mean diastolic blood pressure was 80.9±7.3. Moreover, 73.9% of participants were relatively physically inactive and 18% were highly active. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure showed a significant inverse association with the level of RPA (means of blood pressure measures were: 123.3/82.8 among relatively inactive, 119.7/80.4 among relatively active, and 116.6/79.6 among highly active). Furthermore, RPA occupied 1.6% and 1.8% of working and weekend days, respectively, while sedentary behaviors (watching TV, using electronics for social media or entertaining, etc.) occupied 11.2% and 13.1%, respectively. Sedentary behaviors were significantly associated with high levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Binary logistic regression revealed that physical inactivity (OR=3.13, 95% CI: 2.25-4.35) and sedentary behaviors (OR=2.25, CI: 1.45-3.17) were independent risk factors for high systolic and diastolic blood pressure after adjustment for other covariates. Conclusions: Physical inactivity and sedentary lifestyle were associated with a high risk of hypertension. Further research to examine the independent role of RPA in improving blood pressure levels and cultural and occupational barriers for practicing RPA are recommended. Policies should be enacted in promoting PA in the workplace that might help in decreasing the risk of hypertension among sedentary occupation workers.

Keywords: physical activity, sedentary behaviors, hypertension, workplace

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Authors: Dae Kyung Choi, Won Man Park, Kyungsoo Kim, Yoon Hyuk Kim

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The interspinous process devices have been recently used due to its advantages such as minimal invasiveness and less subsidence of the implant to the osteoporotic bone. In this paper, we have analyzed the influences of ligature tightening of several interspinous process devices using finite element analysis. Four types of interspinous process implants were inserted to the L3-4 spinal motion segment based on their surgical protocols. Inferior plane of L4 vertebra was fixed and 7.5 Nm of extension moment were applied on superior plane of L3 vertebra with 400N of compressive load along follower load direction and pretension of the ligature. The stability of the spinal unit was high enough than that of intact model. The higher value of pretension in the ligature led the decrease of dynamic stabilization effect in cases of the WallisTM, DiamTM, Viking, and Spear®. The results of present study could be used to evaluate surgical option and validate the biomechanical characteristics of the spinal implants.

Keywords: interspinous process device, bone fracture risk, lumbar spine, finite element analysis

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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Margin-Based Principle has been proposed for a long time, it has been proved that this principle could reduce the structural risk and improve the performance in both theoretical and practical aspects. Meanwhile, feed-forward neural network is a traditional classifier, which is very hot at present with a deeper architecture. However, the training algorithm of feed-forward neural network is developed and generated from Widrow-Hoff Principle that means to minimize the squared error. In this paper, we propose a new training algorithm for feed-forward neural networks based on Margin-Based Principle, which could effectively promote the accuracy and generalization ability of neural network classifiers with less labeled samples and flexible network. We have conducted experiments on four UCI open data sets and achieved good results as expected. In conclusion, our model could handle more sparse labeled and more high-dimension data set in a high accuracy while modification from old ANN method to our method is easy and almost free of work.

Keywords: Max-Margin Principle, Feed-Forward Neural Network, classifier, structural risk

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Authors: Tai-Yi Yu, Tai-Kue Yu

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Using global climate change as its main theme, this study establishes a model for understanding the environmental behavior of college students. It examines their beliefs about the environment, sustainability, and social impact. Theories about values, beliefs, norms, and planned behaviors helped establish the path relations among various latent variables, which include the students’ values regarding sustainability, environmental concern, social impact, perceived risk, environmental attitude, and behavioral intention. Personality traits were used as moderator variables in order to analyze their role in influencing environmental behaviors. The components-based partial least square (PLS) method was adopted, and the measurements and structural models were analyzed using the SmartPLS software. The proposed model complies with various test standards, including individual item reliability, composite reliability, average variance extracted, goodness-of-fit, and cross-validated redundancy. When college students are taught the concept of environmental sustainability, sustainability becomes an environmental attitude for them, and they are more likely to uphold an ethic of sustainability. The more an individual perceives the risks of global climate change, the stronger her emotional connection to the issue becomes. This positively affects the environmental attitude of college student, pushes them to participate more proactively in improvement activities, and encourages them to display their behavioral intention to improve global climate change. When considering the interaction effect among four latent variables (values regarding sustainability, social impact, environmental concern, and perceived risk), this study found that personality traits have a moderate effect on environmental attitude.

Keywords: partial least square, personality traits, social impact, environmental concern, perceived risk

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Authors: Youval Aberman, Jason E. Plaks

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This research provides initial evidence that self-efficacy of mitigation behavior – the belief that one’s action can make a difference on the environment – can be implicitly inferred from the way numerical information is presented in environmental messages. The scientific community sees climate change as a pressing issue, but the general public tends to construe climate change as an abstract phenomenon that is psychologically distant. As such, a main barrier to pro-environmental behavior is that individuals often believe that their own behavior makes little to no difference on the environment. When it comes to communicating how the behavior of billions of individuals affects global climate change, it might appear valuable to aggregate those billions and present the shocking enormity of the resources individuals consume. This research provides initial evidence that, in fact, this strategy is ineffective; presenting large-scale aggregate data dilutes the contribution of the individual and impedes individuals’ motivation to act pro-environmentally. The high-impact, underrepresented behavior of eating a sustainable diet was chosen for the present studies. US Participants (total N = 668) were recruited online for a study on ‘meat and the environment’ and received information about some of resources used in meat production – water, CO2e, and feed – with numerical information that varied in its frame of reference. A ‘Nation’ frame of reference discussed the resources used in the beef industry, such as the billions of CO2e released daily by the industry, while a ‘Meal’ frame of reference presented the resources used in the production of a single beef dish. Participants completed measures of pro-environmental attitudes and behavioral intentions, either immediately (Study 1) or two days (Study 2) after reading the information. In Study 2 (n = 520) participants also indicated whether they consumed less or more meat than usual. Study 2 included an additional control condition that contained no environmental data. In Study 1, participants who read about meat production at a national level, compared to at a meal level, reported lower motivation to make ecologically conscious dietary choices and reported lower behavioral intention to change their diet. In Study 2, a similar pattern emerged, with the added insight that the Nation condition, but not the Meal condition, deviated from the control condition. Participants across conditions, on average, reduced their meat consumption in the duration of Study 2, except those in the Nation condition who remained unchanged. Presenting nation-wide consequences of human behavior is a double-edged sword: Framing in a large scale might reveal the relationship between collective actions and environmental issues, but it hinders the belief that individual actions make a difference.

Keywords: climate change communication, environmental concern, meat consumption, motivation

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Authors: Sawsan Eissa, Momen Gharib, Omnia Kabbany

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A flushing numerical study has been performed for intended artificial islands on the Persian Gulf coast in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The island masterplan was tested for flushing using the DELFT 3D hydrodynamic model, and it was found that its residence time exceeds the acceptable PIANC flushing Criteria. Therefore, a number of mitigation measures were applied and tested one by one using the flushing model. Namely, changing the location of the entrance opening, dredging, removing part of the mangrove existing in the near vicinity to create a channel, removing the mangrove altogether, using culverts of different numbers and locations, and pumping at selected points. The pumping option gave the best solution, but it was disregarded due to high capital and running costs. Therefore, it opted for a combination of other solutions, including removing mangroves, introducing culverts, and adjusting island boundaries and types of protection.

Keywords: hydrodynamics, flushing, delft 3d, Persian Gulf, artificial islands.

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Authors: Oghenerume V. Edah, Damilola T. Aladejana

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Entrepreneurship Education is the process of developing and acquiring entrepreneur skills on how to identify a new business and launching the business with the realization of yielding profit optimally. It’s the process of knowing how to take risk and handle challenges that accompanies a new business without the mindset of closing it when it fails. It includes steps to take when a business is recognized, combined with acquiring resources (e.g. finances, labor, land) in the face of risk and launching the new business. Additionally, Entrepreneurship is defined as the ability and willingness to set a business in the event of making profit. It is the act of starting up a business to solve big problems or present a new life-changing solution in the society to generate profit. It’s a process where a business opportunity is identified; planned, acquired and needful steps are taken to launch a business. This involves taking up financial risk, acquiring natural resources, combined with land, capital and building up a team of people who would individually contribute or add value in order to make the new business a success. Moreover, Education is the learning of new skills or value. It’s the acquiring of knowledge and capability of doing new things. It is been able to differentiate what you know and what you don’t know yet. In this modern world, the emergence of entrepreneurship education has been magnificent. An average of 60 percent humans wants to start a business or become an entrepreneur without knowing the steps on how to startup. Moreover, many of them are good starters and they end up failing when the business is not managed well. The introduction of Entrepreneur Education in our world today would change the face of business phenomenally. It would involve the acquisition of entrepreneur skills, knowledge and attitude towards initiating a business venture. The impact of Entrepreneurship Education in our world today would increase the chances of business success because it would generate better entrepreneurs. The skills, values, concept and processes acquired through learning have changed the face of business to a positive direction globally and the impact can be felt. Entrepreneurship can be taught and also can be learnt. Like any skills it can be known.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, education, business, entrepreneur, skills

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Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

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This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

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Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

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Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Deepa Shokeen, Bani Tamber Aeri

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Food choice is a complex process influenced by the interplay of multiple factors, including physical, socio-cultural and economic factors comprising macro or micro level food environments. While a clear understanding of the relationship between what we eat and the environmental context in which these food choices are made is still needed; it has however now been shown that food environments do play a significant role in the obesity epidemic and increasing cardio-metabolic risk factors. Evidence in other countries indicates that the food environment may strongly influence the prevalence of obesity and cardio-metabolic risk factors among young adults. Although in the Indian context, data does indicate the associations between sedentary lifestyle, stress, faulty diets but very little evidence supports the role of food environment in influencing cardio-metabolic health among employed adults. Thus, this research is required to establish how different environments affect different individuals as individuals interact with the environment on a number of levels. Methodology: The objective of the present study is to assess the effect of selected food and nutrition environments with emphasis on worksite environment and to analyse its impact on the food choices and dietary behaviour of the employees (25-45 years of age) of the organizations under study. In the proposed study an attempt will be made to randomly select various worksite environments from Delhi and NCR. The study will be conducted in two phases. In phase I, Information will be obtained on their socio-demographic profile and various factors influencing their food choices including most commonly consumed foods and most frequently visited eating outlets in and around the work place. Data will also be gathered on anthropometry (height, weight, waist circumference), biochemical parameters (lipid profile and fasting glucose), blood pressure and dietary intake. Based on the findings of phase I, a list of the most frequently visited eating outlets in and around the workplace will be prepared in Phase II. These outlets will then be subjected to nutrition environment assessment survey (NEMS). On the basis of the information gathered from phase I and phase II, influence of selected food and nutrition environments on food choice, dietary behaviour and prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors among employed adults will be assessed. Expected outcomes: The proposed study will try to ascertain the impact of selected food and nutrition environments on food choice and dietary intake of the working adults as it is important to learn how these food environments influence the eating perceptions and health behavior of the adults. In addition to this, anthropometry blood pressure and biochemical assessment of the subjects will be done to assess the prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors. If the findings indicate that the work environment, where most of these young adults spend their productive hours of the day, influence their health, than perhaps steps maybe needed to make these environments more conducive to health.

Keywords: food and nutrition environment, cardio-metabolic risk factors, India, worksite environment

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Authors: El-Said. I. Shabana, Mohammad S. Tayeb, Maher M. T. Qutub, Abdulraheem A. Kinsara

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Usually, phosphate deposits contain ²³⁸U and ²³²Th in addition to their decay products. Due to their different pathways in the environment, the ²³⁸U/²³²Th activity concentration ratio usually found to be greater than unity in phosphate sediments. The presence of these radionuclides creates a potential need to control exposure of workers in the mining and processing activities of the phosphate minerals in accordance with IAEA safety standards. The greatest dose to workers comes from exposure to radon, especially ²²²Rn from the uranium series, and has to be controlled. In this regard, radon (²²²Rn) was measured in the atmosphere (indoor and outdoor) of Al-Jalamid phosphate-mines working area using a portable radon-measurement instrument RAD7, in a purpose of radiation protection. Radon was measured in 61 sites inside the open phosphate mines, the phosphate upgrading facility (offices and rooms of the workers, and in some open-air sites) and in the dwellings of the workers residence-village that lies at about 3 km from the mines working area. The obtained results indicated that the average indoor radon concentration was about 48.4 Bq/m³. Inside the upgrading facility, the average outdoor concentrations were 10.8 and 9.7 Bq/m³ in the concentrate piles and crushing areas, respectively. It was 12.3 Bq/m³ in the atmosphere of the open mines. These values are comparable with the global average values. Based on the average values, the annual effective dose due to radon inhalation was calculated and risk estimates have been done. The average annual effective dose to workers due to the radon inhalation was estimated by 1.32 mSv. The potential excess risk of lung cancer mortality that could be attributed to radon, when considering the lifetime exposure, was estimated by 53.0x10^-4. The results have been discussed in detail.

Keywords: dosimetry, environmental monitoring, phosphate deposits, radiation protection, radon

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Authors: Vanessa Bennemann, Gabriela Laste, Márcia Inês Goettert

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The gestational period is a phase in which the pregnant woman undergoes constant physiological and hormonal changes, which are part of the woman’s biological cycle, the development of the fetus, childbirth, and lactation. These are factors of response to the immunological adaptation of the human reproductive process that is directly related to the pregnancy’s well-being and development. Although most pregnancies occur without complications, about 15% of pregnant women will develop potentially fatal complications, implying maternal and fetal risk. Therefore, requiring specialized care for high-risk pregnant women (HRPW) with obstetric interventions for the survival of the mother and/or fetus. Among the risk factors that characterize HRPW are the women's age, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), autoimmune diseases, infectious diseases such as syphilis and HIV, hypertension (SAH), preeclampsia, eclampsia, HELLP syndrome, uterine contraction abnormalities, and premature placental detachment (PPD), thyroid disorders, among others. Thus, pregnancy has an impact on the thyroid gland causing changes in the functioning of the mother's thyroid gland, altering the thyroid hormone (TH) profiles and production as pregnancy progresses. Considering, throughout the gestational period, the interpretation of the results of the tests to evaluate the thyroid functioning depends on the stage in which the pregnancy is. Thyroid disorders are directly related to adverse obstetric outcomes and in child development. Therefore, the adequate release of TH is important for a pregnancy without complications and optimal fetal growth and development. Objective: Investigate the physiological effects caused by thyroid disorders in the gestational period. Methods: A search for articles indexed in PubMed, Scielo, and MDPI databases, was performed using the term “AND”, with the descriptors: Pregnancy, Thyroid. With several combinations that included: Melatonin, Thyroidopathy, Inflammatory processes, Cytokines, Anti-inflammatory, Antioxidant, High-risk pregnancy. Subsequently, the screening was performed through the analysis of titles and/or abstracts. The criteria were: including clinical studies in general, randomized or not, in the period of 10 years prior to the research, in the English literature; excluded: experimental studies, case reports, research in the development phase. Results: In the preliminary results, a total of studies (n=183) were found, (n=57) excluded, such as studies of cancer, diabetes, obesity, and skin diseases. Conclusion: To date, it has been identified that thyroid diseases can impair the fetus’s brain development. Further research is suggested on this matter to identify new substances that may have a potential therapeutic effect to aid the gestational period with thyroid diseases.

Keywords: pregnancy, thyroid, melatonin, high-risk pregnancy

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Authors: Wilfred Fritz

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Grid connected solar PV inverters need to be compliant to standard regulations regarding unwanted harmonic generation. This paper gives an introduction to harmonics, solar PV inverter voltage regulation and balancing through compensation and investigates the behaviour of harmonic generation at different power levels. Practical measurements of harmonics and power levels with a power quality data logger were made, on a test network at a university in Germany. The test setup and test results are discussed. The major finding was that between the morning and afternoon load peak windows when the PV inverters operate under low solar insolation and low power levels, more unwanted harmonics are generated. This has a huge impact on the power quality of the grid as well as capital and maintenance costs. The design of a single-tuned harmonic filter towards harmonic mitigation is presented.

Keywords: harmonics, power quality, pulse width modulation, total harmonic distortion

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Authors: Made Kurnia Widiastuti Giri, Nyoman Kanca, Arie Swastini, Bambang Purwanto

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Aim: Waria transgenders are a phenomenon whose existence is undeniable. The sexual behaviours of waria transgenders belong to the groups of high-risk STDs infections, especially HIV/AIDS. The present study was aimed at finding out the general idea of the existence of waria transgenders in Singaraja, their sexual transactions, their sexual behaviours, and at exploring the factors affecting their sexual behaviours along with their participation in regular reproduction health control. Methods: The subjects of the present research were male-to-female transgenders living in the town of Singaraja. The research applied a qualitative approach. Data collection in this research was conducted through in-depth interview and observation. Results: The results of the study exposed 1) the existence of waria transgender community in Singaraja observed from their active participation in social events such as taking the roles of counsellors in the campaign of prevention and control of HIV/AIDS with the Local Commission of AIDS Control and other foundations; 2) the sexual services provided by waria transgenders which were performed in squeeze method, oral and anal sex which could be categorized as HIV/AIDS high-risk sexual behaviours, while the consistency in doing safe sex among the trangenders in Singaraja showed that most of the waria transgenders (80%) were aware of the urgency of using condoms during sexual intercourse; and 3) the low participation of the waria transgenders in Singaraja in regular reproduction health check up at the local Centre of Public Health Service was caused by their negative perception about being examined by female doctors. Conclucions: Waria in singaraja categorized as HIV/AIDS high-risk sexual behaviours but they do have consistency in doing safe sex by using condoms. They have a negative psychological perception about being examined by female doctors.

Keywords: waria transgenders, sexual behaviours, reproduction health, hiv/aids

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Authors: P. S. Hsi, Y. F. Wang, Y. F. Ho, P. C. Hung

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The aim of the present study was to explore the dermal exposure assessment model of chemicals that have been developed abroad and to evaluate the feasibility of chemical dermal exposure assessment model for manufacturing industry in Taiwan. We conducted and analyzed six semi-quantitative risk management tools, including UK - Control of substances hazardous to health ( COSHH ) Europe – Risk assessment of occupational dermal exposure ( RISKOFDERM ), Netherlands - Dose related effect assessment model ( DREAM ), Netherlands – Stoffenmanager ( STOFFEN ), Nicaragua-Dermal exposure ranking method ( DERM ) and USA / Canada - Public Health Engineering Department ( PHED ). Five types of manufacturing industry were selected to evaluate. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the sensitivity of each factor, and the correlation between the assessment results of each semi-quantitative model and the exposure factors used in the model was analyzed to understand the important evaluation indicators of the dermal exposure assessment model. To assess the effectiveness of the semi-quantitative assessment models, this study also conduct quantitative dermal exposure results using prediction model and verify the correlation via Pearson's test. Results show that COSHH was unable to determine the strength of its decision factor because the results evaluated at all industries belong to the same risk level. In the DERM model, it can be found that the transmission process, the exposed area, and the clothing protection factor are all positively correlated. In the STOFFEN model, the fugitive, operation, near-field concentrations, the far-field concentration, and the operating time and frequency have a positive correlation. There is a positive correlation between skin exposure, work relative time, and working environment in the DREAM model. In the RISKOFDERM model, the actual exposure situation and exposure time have a positive correlation. We also found high correlation with the DERM and RISKOFDERM models, with coefficient coefficients of 0.92 and 0.93 (p<0.05), respectively. The STOFFEN and DREAM models have poor correlation, the coefficients are 0.24 and 0.29 (p>0.05), respectively. According to the results, both the DERM and RISKOFDERM models are suitable for performance in these selected manufacturing industries. However, considering the small sample size evaluated in this study, more categories of industries should be evaluated to reduce its uncertainty and enhance its applicability in the future.

Keywords: dermal exposure, risk management, quantitative estimation, feasibility evaluation

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Authors: Siddharth Jain, Abhenil Mittal, Surendra Kumar Sharma

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Background: With its recent emergence and re-emergence, dengue has become a major international public health concern, imposing significant financial burden especially in developing countries. Despite aggressive control measures in place, India experienced one of its largest outbreaks in 2015 with Delhi being most severely affected. There is a lack of reliable predictors of disease severity and mortality in dengue. The present study was carried out to identify these predictors during the 2015 outbreak. Methods: This prospective observational study conducted at an apex tertiary care center in Delhi, India included confirmed adult dengue patients admitted between August-November 2015. Patient demographics, clinical details, and laboratory findings were recorded in a predesigned proforma. Appropriate statistical tests were used to summarize and compare the clinical and laboratory characteristics and derive predictors of mortality and severe disease, while developing a clinical risk score for mortality. Serotype analysis was also done for 75 representative samples to identify the dominant serotypes. Results: Data of 369 patients were analyzed (mean age 30.9 years; 67% males). Of these, 198 (54%) patients had dengue fever, 125 (34%) had dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF Grade 1,2)and 46 (12%) developed dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Twenty two (6%) patients died. Late presentation to the hospital (≥5 days after onset) and dyspnoea at rest were identified as independent predictors of severe disease. Age ≥ 24 years, dyspnoea at rest and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. A clinical risk score was developed (12*age + 14*sensorium + 10*dyspnoea) which, if ≥ 22, predicted mortality with a high sensitivity (81.8%) and specificity (79.2%). The predominant serotypes in Delhi (2015) were DENV-2 and DENV-4. Conclusion: Age ≥ 24 years, dyspnoea at rest and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Platelet counts did not determine the outcome in dengue patients. Timely referral/access to health care is important. Development and use of validated predictors of disease severity and simple clinical risk scores, which can be applied in all healthcare settings, can help minimize mortality and morbidity, especially in resource limited settings.

Keywords: dengue, mortality, predictors, severity

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Authors: Jonas Hinker, Lisa Zumholz, Johanna M. A. Myrzik

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Despite strong efforts by the German government to make a transition to higher quality level of building stocks, the rate of renovation continues to remain below the proclaimed level of 2%. As the mandatory standards for residential retrofits are well-balanced in such a way that strict adherence to them guarantees profit from the investment, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons why there are so many people hesitant with their investments. Risks and transaction costs can be understood as socio-technical boundaries and have to be taken into consideration to be able to understand why a worthwhile investment is postponed or rejected. This paper therefore presents a method for investment analyses that is focused on such socio-technical constraints, which helps to reveal the strongest misconceptions of home owners. By depicting sensitivities and risk factors in an integrated and impartial way, such a tool can be utilized by home owners to address reservations and misunderstandings. In the end, this leads to an exploitation of smaller energy efficiency measures that makes up a big demand reduction in the residential sector altogether.

Keywords: energy refurbishment, investment analysis, residential buildings, risk-aware investment strategy

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Authors: Xiaoxian Zhang

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Guidelines of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and food safety assessment (FSA) used nowadays, based on an S-shaped threshold dose-response curve (SDR), fail to consider hormesis, a reproducible biphasic dose-response model represented as a J-shaped or an inverted U-shaped curve, that occurs in the real-life environment across multitudinous compounds on cells, organisms, populations, and even the ecosystem. Specifically, in SDR-based ERA and FSA practice, predicted no effect concentration (PNEC) is calculated separately for individual substances from no observed effect concentration (NOEC, usually equivalent to 10% effect concentration (EC10) of a contaminant or food condiment) over an assessment coefficient that is bigger than 1. Experienced researchers doubted that hormesis in the real-life environment might lead to a waste of limited human and material resources in ERA and FSA practice, but related data are scarce. In this study, hormetic effects on bioluminescence of Aliivibrio fischeri (A. f) induced by sulfachloropyridazine (SCP) under 40 conditions to simulate the real-life scenario were investigated, and hormetic effects on growth of human MCF-7 cells caused by brown sugar and mascavado sugar were found likewise. After comparison of related parameters, it has for the first time been proved that there is a 50% probability for safe concentration (SC) of contaminants and food condiments to fall within the hormetic-stimulatory range (HSR) or left to HSR, revealing the unreliability of traditional parameters in standardized (eco)toxicological studies, and supporting qualitatively and quantitatively the over-strictness of ERA and FSA resulted from misuse of SDR. This study provides a novel perspective for ERA and FSA practitioners that hormesis should dominate and conditions where SDR works should only be singled out on a specific basis.

Keywords: dose-response relationship, food safety, ecological risk assessment, hormesis

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Authors: Marko Živanović, Jovana Bjekić, Maša Vukčević Marković

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Professionals and volunteers involved in refugee protection and support are on a daily basis faced with people who have experienced numerous traumatic experiences and, as such, are subjected to secondary traumatization (ST). The aim of this study was to provide insight into risk factors for ST in helpers working with refugees in Serbia. A total of 175 participants working with refugees fulfilled: Secondary Traumatization Questionnaire, checklist of refugees’ traumatic experiences, Hopkins Symptoms Checklist (HSCL) assessing depression and anxiety symptoms, quality of life questionnaire (MANSA), HEXACO personality inventory, and COPE assessing coping mechanisms. In addition, participants provided information on work-related problems. Qualitative analysis of answers to the question about most difficult part of their job has shown that burnout-related issues are clustered around three recurrent topics that can be considered as the most prominent generators of stress, namely: ‘lack of organization and cooperation’, ‘not been able to do enough’, and ‘hard to take it and to process it’. Factor analysis (Maximum likelihood extraction, Promax rotation) have shown that ST comprises of two correlated factors (r = .533, p < .01), namely Psychological deficits and Intrusions. Results have shown that risk factor for ST could be find in three interrelated sources: 1) work-related problems; 2) personality-related risk factors and 3) clients’ traumatic experiences. Among personality related factors, it was shown that risk factor for Intrusions could be find in – high Emotionality (β = .221, p < .05), and Altruism (β = .322, p < .01), while low Extraversion (β = -.365, p < .01) represents risk factor for Psychological deficits. In addition, usage of maladaptive coping mechanisms –mental disengagement (r = .253, p < .01), behavioral disengagement (r = .274, p < .01), focusing on distress and venting of emotions (r = .220, p < .05), denial (r = .164, p < .05), and substance use (r = .232, p < .01) correlate with Psychological deficits while Intrusions corelate with Mental disengagement (r = .251, p < .01) and denial (r = .183, p < .05). Regarding clients’ traumatic experiences it was shown that both quantity of traumatic events in country of origin (for Deficits r = .226, p < .01; for Intrusions r = .174, p < .05) and in transit (for Deficits r = .288, p < .01), as well as certain content-related features of such experiences (especially experiences which are severely dislocated from ‘everyday reality’) are related to ST. In addition, Psychological deficits and Intrusions have shown to be accompanied by symptoms of depression (r = .760, p < .01; r = .552, p < .01) and anxiety (r = .740, p < .01; r = .447, p < .01) and overall lower life quality (r = -.454, p < .01; r = .256, p < .01). Results indicate that psychological vulnerability of persons who are working with traumatized individuals can be found in certain personality traits, and usage of maladaptive coping mechanisms, which disable one to deal with work-related issues, and to cope with quantity and quality of traumatic experiences they were faced with, affecting ones’ psychological well-being. Acknowledgement: This research was funded by IRC Serbia.

Keywords: mental health, refugees, secondary traumatization, traumatic experiences

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Authors: Weldegerima Gebremedhin Hagos

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Background: The Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is a catastrophic emerging global health threat caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 has a wide range of complications and sequels. It is devastating in developing countries, causing serious health and socioeconomic crises as a result of the increasingly overburdened healthcare system. Ethiopia reported the first case of SARS-CoV-2 on 13th March 2020, with community transmission ensuing by mid-May. The aim of this study was conducted to determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Tigray, Ethiopia. Methods: Facility-based correctional study designs were used on a total of 380 study participants from March 2023 up to May 2023 in two general hospitals and one comprehensive specialized hospital in Tigray, Ethiopia. A pre-structured questionnaire was used to assess information regarding the socio-demographic, clinical data and other risk factors. A nasal swap was taken by trained health professionals, and the laboratory analysis was done by RT-PCR (quant studio 7-flex, applied biosystems) in Tigrai Health Research Institute and Mekelle University Medical Microbiology Research Laboratory. Result: The mean age of the study participants was 31 (SD+/-3.5) years, with 65% being male and 35% female. The overall seropositivity of sars-cov-2 among the study participants was 5.5%. The prevalence was higher in males (6.2%) than females which were (4.7%). Sars-cov-2 infection was significantly associated with a history of lack of vaccination (p-value 0.002). There was no significant association between seropositivity and demographic factors (P > 0.05). Conclusion: The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among the study participants is high. Those study participants with a previous history of vaccination have a low probability of developing COVID-19 infection. A low SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was recorded in those who frequently use masks.

Keywords: prevalence, SARS-CoV-2, infection, risk factors

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