Search results for: housing pathways
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1407

Search results for: housing pathways

447 Transit-Oriented Development as a Tool for Building Social Capital

Authors: Suneet Jagdev

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Rapid urbanization has resulted in informal settlements on the periphery of nearly all big cities in the developing world due to lack of affordable housing options in the city. Residents of these communities have to travel long distances to get to work or search for jobs in these cities, and women, children and elderly people are excluded from urban opportunities. Affordable and safe public transport facilities can help them expand their possibilities. The aim of this research is to identify social capital as another important element of livable cities that can be protected and nurtured through transit-oriented development, as a tool to provide real resources that can help these transit-oriented communities become self-sustainable. Social capital has been referred to the collective value of all social networks and the inclinations that arise from these networks to do things for each other. It is one of the key component responsible to build and maintain democracy. Public spaces, pedestrian amenities and social equity are the other essential part of Transit Oriented Development models that will be analyzed in this research. The data has been collected through the analysis of several case studies, the urban design strategies implemented and their impact on the perception and on the community´s experience, and, finally, how these focused on the social capital. Case studies have been evaluated on several metrics, namely ecological, financial, energy consumption, etc. A questionnaire and other tools were designed to collect data to analyze the research objective and reflect the dimension of social capital. The results of the questionnaire indicated that almost all the participants have a positive attitude towards this dimensions of building a social capital with the aid of transit-oriented development. Statistical data of the identified key motivators against against demographic characteristics have been generated based on the case studies used for the paper. The findings suggested that there is a direct relation between urbanization, transit-oriented developments, and social capital.

Keywords: better opportunities, low-income settlements, social capital, social inclusion, transit oriented development

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446 Performance in the Delivery of Environmental Management Programs of the Local Government Unit of Malay, Aklan, Philippines

Authors: Tomas O. Ortega, Cecilia T. Reyes, Cecile O. Legaspi, Cylde G. Abayon, Anna Mae C. Relingo, Mary Eden M. Teruel

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A study was conducted to evaluate the performance in the delivery of environmental management programs of the local government of Malay, Aklan, Philippines. The samples were determined by adopting the Multi-Stage Random Probability Sampling technique. The 150 respondents were drawn from barangays with larger shares of the population based on the Philippine Statistical Authority’s Data on Census Population and Housing for the year 2015. The qualified sample respondents were selected using the Kish Grid. Female respondents were targeted for even numbered questionnaires while male respondents were targeted for odd numbers. The four major core concepts namely awareness, availment, satisfaction and need for action were used in measuring the rating of the respondents and presented in frequency and percentage distributions. The reasons for their response were likewise gathered. The study inferred that a large portion of the respondents was profoundly aware of the environmental management programs implemented by their local government unit especially the solid waste management and the clean-up programs/projects. Programs to control air pollution and waste water management obtained the least awareness ratings from the respondents. A high percentage of respondents had availed of environmental management programs, particularly solid waste management. Overall, majority of the respondents were satisfied with the environmental management programs rendered by the local government unit and therefore needs less action. It is recommended that the local government unit must strengthen air pollution control program. Appropriate action must be taken to support the people’s interest in this program most particularly to the individuals who burn their garbage. Seminars and training-workshops about appropriate waste disposal will most likely help settle this issue.

Keywords: availment, awareness, environmental management, need for action, satisfaction

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445 Role of Desire in Risk-Perception: A Case Study of Syrian Refugees’ Migration towards Europe

Authors: Lejla Sunagic

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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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444 Programmatic Actions of Social Welfare State in Service to Justice: Law, Society and the Third Sector

Authors: Bruno Valverde Chahaira, Matheus Jeronimo Low Lopes, Marta Beatriz Tanaka Ferdinandi

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This paper proposes to dissect the meanings and / or directions of the State, in order, to present the State models to elaborate a conceptual framework about its function in the legal scope. To do so, it points out the possible contracts established between the State and the Society, since the general principles immanent in them can guide the models of society in force. From this orientation arise the contracts, whose purpose is by the effect to modify the status (the being and / or the opinion) of each of the subjects in presence - State and Society. In this logic, this paper announces the fiduciary contracts and “veredicção”(portuguese word) contracts, from the perspective of semiotics discourse (or greimasian). Therefore, studies focus on the issue of manifest language in unilateral and bilateral or reciprocal relations between the State and Society. Thus, under the biases of the model of the communicative situation and discourse, the guidelines of these contractual relations will be analyzed in order to see if there is a pragmatic sanction: positive when the contract is signed between the subjects (reward), or negative when the contract between they are broken (punishment). In this way, a third path emerges which, in this specific case, passes through the subject-third sector. In other words, the proposal, which is systemic in nature, is to analyze whether, since the contract of the welfare state is not carried out in the constitutional program on fundamental rights: education, health, housing, an others. Therefore, in the structure of the exchange demanded by the society according to its contractual obligations (others), the third way (Third Sector) advances in the empty space left by the State. In this line, it presents the modalities of action of the third sector in the social scope. Finally, the normative communication organization of these three subjects is sought in the pragmatic model of discourse, namely: State, Society and Third Sector, in an attempt to understand the constant dynamics in the Law and in the language of the relations established between them.

Keywords: access to justice, state, social rights, third sector

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443 Intermediate-Term Impact of Taiwan High-Speed Rail (HSR) and Land Use on Spatial Patterns of HSR Travel

Authors: Tsai Yu-hsin, Chung Yi-Hsin

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The employment of an HSR system, resulting in elevation in the inter-city/-region accessibility, is likely to promote spatial interaction between places in the HSR and extended territory. The inter-city/-region travel via HSR could be, among others, affected by the land use, transportation, and location of the HSR station at both trip origin and destination ends. However, relatively few insights have been shed on these impacts and spatial patterns of the HSR travel. The research purposes, as phase one of a series of HSR related research, of this study are threefold: to analyze the general spatial patterns of HSR trips, such as the spatial distribution of trip origins and destinations; to analyze if specific land use, transportation characteristics, and trip characteristics affect HSR trips in terms of the use of HSR, the distribution of trip origins and destinations, and; to analyze the socio-economic characteristics of HSR travelers. With the Taiwan HSR starting operation in 2007, this study emphasizes on the intermediate-term impact of HSR, which is made possible with the population and housing census and industry and commercial census data and a station area intercept survey conducted in the summer 2014. The analysis will be conducted at the city, inter-city, and inter-region spatial levels, as necessary and required. The analysis tools include descriptive statistics and multivariate analysis with the assistance of SPSS, HLM and ArcGIS. The findings, on the one hand, can provide policy implications for associated land use, transportation plan and the site selection of HSR station. On the other hand, on the travel the findings are expected to provide insights that can help explain how land use and real estate values could be affected by HSR in following phases of this series of research.

Keywords: high speed rail, land use, travel, spatial pattern

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442 The Impact of Neighbourhood Built-Environment on the Formulation and Facilitation of Bottom-up Mutual Help Networks for Senior Residents in Singapore

Authors: Wei Zhang, Chye Kiang Heng, John Chye Fung

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Background: The world’s demographics is currently undergoing the largest wave of both rapid ageing and dramatic urbanisation in human history. As one of the most rapidly ageing countries, Singapore will see about one in four residents aged 65 years and above by 2030 in its high-rise and high-density urban environment. Research questions: To support urban seniors ageing in place and interdependence among senior residents and their informal caregivers, this study argues a community-based care model with bottom-up mutual help networks and asks how neighbourhood built-environment influences the formulation and facilitation of bottom-up mutual help networks in Singapore. Methods: Two public housing communities with different physical environment and rich age-friendly neighbourhood initiatives were chosen as the case studies. The categories, participants and places of bottom-up mutual help activities will be obtained via field observation, non-structural interviews of participants, service providers and managers of care facilities, and documents. Mapping and content analysis will be used to explore the influences of neighbourhood built-environment on the formulation and facilitation of bottom-up mutual help networks. Results and conclusions: The results showed that neighbourhood design, place programming, and place governance have a confluence on the bottom-up mutual help networks for senior residents. Significance: The outcomes of this study will provide fresh evidence for paradigm shifts of community-based care for the elderly and neighbourhood planning. In addition, the research findings will shed light on meaningful implications of urban planners and policy makers as they tackle with the issues arising from the ageing society.

Keywords: Built environment, Mutual help, Neighbourhood, Senior residents, Singapore

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441 Murine Pulmonary Responses after Sub-Chronic Exposure to Environmental Ultrafine Particles

Authors: Yara Saleh, Sebastien Antherieu, Romain Dusautoir, Jules Sotty, Laurent Alleman, Ludivine Canivet, Esperanza Perdrix, Pierre Dubot, Anne Platel, Fabrice Nesslany, Guillaume Garcon, Jean-Marc Lo-Guidice

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Air pollution is one of the leading causes of premature death worldwide. Among air pollutants, particulate matter (PM) is a major health risk factor, through the induction of cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancers. They are composed of coarse, fine and ultrafine particles (PM10, PM2.5, and PM0.1 respectively). Ultrafine particles are emerging unregulated pollutants that might have greater toxicity than larger particles, since they are more abundant and consequently have higher surface area per unit of mass. Our project aims to develop a relevant in vivo model of sub-chronic exposure to atmospheric particles in order to elucidate the specific respiratory impact of ultrafine particles compared to fine particulate matter. Quasi-ultrafine (PM0.18) and fine (PM2.5) particles have been collected in the urban industrial zone of Dunkirk in north France during a 7-month campaign, and submitted to physico-chemical characterization. BALB/c mice were then exposed intranasally to 10µg of PM0.18 or PM2.5 3 times a week. After 1 or 3-month exposure, broncho alveolar lavages (BAL) were performed and lung tissues were harvested for histological and transcriptomic analyses. The physico-chemical study of the collected particles shows that there is no major difference in elemental and surface chemical composition between PM0.18 and PM2.5. Furthermore, the results of the cytological analyses carried out show that both types of particulate fractions can be internalized in lung cells. However, the cell count in BAL and preliminary transcriptomic data suggest that PM0.18 could be more reactive and induce a stronger lung inflammation in exposed mice than PM2.5. Complementary studies are in progress to confirm these first data and to identify the metabolic pathways more specifically associated with the toxicity of ultrafine particles.

Keywords: environmental pollution, lung affect, mice, ultrafine particles

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440 The Interactions between Phosphorus Leaching and Lime Application in Undisturbed Soil Columns with Different Soil Textures

Authors: Faezeh Eslamian, Zhiming Qi, Michael J. Tate

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Phosphorus losses from agricultural fields through leaching is one of the main contributors to eutrophication of lakes in Quebec as well as North America. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the application of high calcium hydrated lime as a soil amendment in reducing the subsurface transport of phosphorus to water bodies by studying the interactions between phosphorus leaching and lime application in three common agricultural soil textures (sandy loam, loam and clay loam) in Quebec. For this purpose, 6 intact soil columns of 10 cm diameter and 20 cm deep were taken from each of the three different soil textured agricultural fields. Lime (high calcium hydrated lime) was applied to the top 5 cm of half of the intact soil columns while the rest were left as controls. The columns were leached with artificial rainwater in-consecutively at a rate of 3 mm h-1 over a 90-day period. The total amount of water added was equal to the average total rainfall of the region in fall. The leachate samples were collected daily and analyzed for dissolved reactive phosphorus, total dissolved phosphorus, total phosphorus, pH, electrical conductivity, calcium, magnesium, potassium and iron. The results showed that lime was able to significantly reduce dissolved reactive phosphorus concentrations in the leachates by 70 and 40 percent in sandy loam and loam soil columns, respectively, while phosphorus concentration in the clay loam soil leachates were increased by 40 percent. The calcium in lime has P-binding capabilities. Soil chemical properties in sandy and loamy soils can affect phosphorus leaching, whereas, transport mechanisms in clay soils with macropores dominate phosphorus leaching behaviors. The presence of preferential pathways and cracks in the clay soil columns has led to a quick transport of phosphorus through the soil and the less contact time with the soil matrix, therefore, causing less opportunity for P sorption and larger P release. Application of lime to agricultural fields can be considered as a promising measure in mitigating phosphorus loss from sandy loam and loam soils.

Keywords: leaching, lime, phosphorus, soil texture

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439 The Retinoprotective Effects and Mechanisms of Fungal Ingredient 3,4-Dihydroxybenzalacetone through Inhibition of Retinal Müller and Microglial Activation

Authors: Yu-Wen Cheng, Jau-Der Ho, Liang-Huan Wu, Fan-Li Lin, Li-Huei Chen, Hung-Ming Chang, Yueh-Hsiung Kuo, George Hsiao

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Retina glial activation and neuroinflammation have been confirmed to cause devastating responses in retinodegenerative diseases. The expression and activation of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-9 and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) could be exerted as the crucial pathological factors in glaucoma- and blue light-induced retinal injuries. The present study aimed to investigate the retinoprotective effects and mechanisms of fungal ingredient 3,4-dihydroxybenzalacetone (DBL) isolated from Phellinus linteus in the retinal glial activation and retinodegenerative animal models. According to the cellular studies, DBL significantly and concentration-dependently abrogated MMP-9 activation and expression in TNFα-stimulated retinal Müller (rMC-1) cells. We found the inhibitory activities of DBL were strongly through the STAT- and ERK-dependent pathways. Furthermore, DBL dramatically attenuated MMP-9 activation in the stimulated Müller cells exposed to conditioned media from LPS-stimulated microglia BV-2 cells. On the other hand, DBL strongly suppressed LPS-induced production of NO and ROS and expression of iNOS in microglia BV-2 cells. Consistently, the phosphorylation of STAT was substantially blocked by DBL in LPS-stimulated microglia BV-2 cells. In the evaluation of retinoprotective functions, the high IOP-induced scotopic electroretinographic (ERG) deficit and blue light-induced abnormal pupillary light response (PLR) were assessed. The deficit scotopic ERG responses markedly recovered by DBL in a rat model of glaucoma-like ischemia/reperfusion (I/R)-injury. DBL also reduced the aqueous gelatinolytic activity and retinal MMP-9 expression in high IOP-injured conditions. Additionally, DBL could restore the abnormal PLR and reduce retinal MMP-9 activation. In summary, DBL could ameliorate retinal neuroinflammation and MMP-9 activation by predominantly inhibiting STAT3 activation in the retinal Müller cells and microglia, which exhibits therapeutic potential for glaucoma and other retinal degenerative diseases.

Keywords: glaucoma, blue light, DBL, retinal Müller cell, MMP-9, STAT, Microglia, iNOS, ERG, PLR

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438 Socio-Economic Impact of Covid-19 in Ethiopia

Authors: Kebron Abich Asnake

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The outbreak of COVID-19 has had far-reaching socio-economic consequences globally, and Ethiopia is no exception. This abstract provides a summary of a research study on the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study analyzes the health impact, economic repercussions, social consequences, government response measures, and opportunities for post-crisis recovery. In terms of health impact, the research explores the spread and transmission of the virus, the capacity and response of the healthcare system, and the mortality rate, with a focus on vulnerable populations. The economic impact analysis entails investigating the contraction of the GDP, employment and income loss, disruption in key sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing, and the specific implications for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), foreign direct investment, and remittances. The social impact section looks at the disruptions in education and the digital divide, food security and nutrition challenges, increased poverty and inequality, gender-based violence, and mental health issues. The research also examines the measures taken by the Ethiopian government, including health and safety regulations, economic stimulus packages, social protection programs, and support for vulnerable populations. Furthermore, the study outlines long-term recovery prospects, social cohesion, and community resilience challenges. It highlights the need to strengthen the healthcare system and finds a balance between health and economic priorities. The research concludes by presenting recommendations for policy-makers and stakeholders, emphasizing opportunities for post-crisis recovery such as diversification of the economy, enhanced healthcare infrastructure, investment in digital infrastructure and technology, and support for domestic tourism and local industries. This research provides valuable insights into the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 in Ethiopia, offering a comprehensive analysis of the challenges faced and potential pathways towards recovery.

Keywords: impact, covid, ethiopia, health

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437 Emblica officinalis Fruit Extract Ameliorates Cisplatin-Induced Nephrotoxicity in Experimental Rats

Authors: Prerna Kalra, Surender Singh

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Cisplatin is the most common chemotherapeutic agent used in different solid tumors, but its main limiting factor is dose-dependent nephrotoxicity by generating reactive oxygen species, by stimulating inflammatory and apoptotic pathways. Additional adjuvant therapies to decrease the toxicity of this chemotherapeutic drug are essential. This study was designed to evaluate the protective role of Emblica officinalis Geartn (Indian gooseberry) against cisplatin induced nephrotoxicity. Emblica officinalis was orally administered to Wistar rats (n=6) for 10 days in 50, 100 and 200mg/kg body weight. On day 7, 8mg/kg of cisplatin was administered intra-peritoneally to rats in all groups. Serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and antioxidant levels were measured on day10. The renal damage was evaluated by histopathological and transmission electron microscopy. We found that 200mg/kg dose of Emblica officinalis significantly inhibited the elevation of biochemical parameters i.e. serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, oxidant stress marker (malondialdehyde) and increased the reduced levels of antioxidant marker (endogenous glutathione and superoxide dismutase). Cisplatin treated rats have shown acute tubular necrosis and infiltration of inflammatory cells in rat kidney which was reversed after treating the animals with Emblica officinalis in the treatment group. In ultrastructural changes cisplatin treated group showed the damaged mitochondria (M) with dissolved cristae and large number of lysosomes (L) and vacuole (V) formation in tubular epithelial cells. EOE administered group showed visible cristae formation and sign of autophagy vacuoles at a dose of 200mg/kg. Further in-silico studies revealed that ellagic acid is responsible for its nephroprotective effect. The above findings conclude that the Emblica officinalis may be used as an adjuvant therapy in cisplatin induced nephrotoxicity.

Keywords: antioxidant, cisplatin, Emblica officinalis, in silico, nephrotoxicity

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436 A Quasi-Experimental Study of the Impact of 5Es Instructional Model on Students' Mathematics Achievement in Northern Province, Rwanda

Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Jean François Maniriho, Irenee Ndayambaje

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Mathematics is the foundational enabling discipline that underpins science, technology, and engineering disciplines. Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) subjects are foreseen as the engine for socio-economic transformation. Rwanda has done reforms in education aiming at empowering and preparing students for the real world job by providing career pathways in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics related fields. While that considered so, the performance in mathematics has remained deplorable in both formative and national examinations. Therefore, this paper aims at exploring the extent to which the engage, explore, explain, elaborate and evaluate (5Es) instructional model contributing towards students’ achievement in mathematics. The present study adopted the pre-test, post-test non-equivalent control group quasi-experimental design. The 5Es instructional model was applied to the experimental group while the control group received instruction with the conventional teaching method for eight weeks. One research-made instrument, mathematics achievement test (MAT), was used for data collection. A pre-test was given to students before the intervention to make sure that both groups have equivalent characteristics. At the end of the experimental period, the two groups have undergone a post-test to ascertain the contribution of the 5Es instructional model. Descriptive statistics and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) were used for the analysis of the study. For determining the improvement in mathematics, Hakes methods of calculating gain were used to analyze the pre-test and post-test scores. Results showed that students exposed to 5Es instructional model achieved significantly better performance in mathematics than students instructed using the conventional teaching method. It was also found that 5Es instructional model made lessons more interesting, easy and created friendship among students. Thus, 5Es instructional model was recommended to be adopted as a close substitute to the conventional teaching method in teaching mathematics in lower secondary schools in Rwanda.

Keywords: 5Es instructional model, achievement, conventional teaching method, mathematics

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435 An Investigation on the Need to Provide Environmental Sanitation Facilities to Informal Settlement in Shagari Low-Cost Katsina State for Sustainable Built Environment

Authors: Abdullahi Mannir Rawayau

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This paper identifies the problems that have aided the decoy to adequate basic infrastructural amenities, sub-standard housing, over-crowding, poor ventilation in homes and work places, sanitation, and non-compliance with building bye-laws and regulation. The paper also asserts the efficient disposal of solid and liquid waste is one of the challenges in the informal areas due to threats on the environment and public health. Sanitation services in the informal settlements have been found to be much lower compared to the average for unban. Bearing in mind a factor which prevents sustainable sanitation in informal areas which include low incomes, insecure tenure, low education levels, difficulty topography and transitory populations, and this study aim to identify effective strategies for achieving sustainable sanitation with specific reference to the informal settlement. Using the Shanghai Low-Cost as a case study. The primary data collected was through observation and interview method. Similarly, the secondary data used for the study was collected through literature reviews from extent studies with specific reference to informal settlement. A number of strategies towards achieving sustainable sanitation in the study were identified here in classified into three (3):- Advocacy and capacity building, infrastructural provision and institutionalization of systems and processes. The paper concludes with the premise on the need to build alliances between the government and stakeholders concerned with sanitation provision through the creation of sanitation and employ adaptable technology. Provision of sanitation facilities in public areas and to establish a statutory body for timely response to sanitation waste management in Katsina. It is imperative to check and prevent further decay for harmonious living and sustainable development.

Keywords: built environment, sanitation, facilities, settlement

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434 Effective Environmental Planning Management (EPM) as Panacea to Sustainable Urban Development

Authors: Jegede Kehinde Jacob, Ola Akeem Bayonle, Adewale Yemi Yekeen

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The rapid rate of urban growth in most developing countries of the world in recent times is alarming. Mass movement of people from rural areas to the urban centres, the consequence of the uncontrolled rapid urbanisation resulting to many un-conforming environmental challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, land, water and air pollution, poor environmental sanitation, poor and inadequate housing, urban degradation, sprawl and slums, urban violence, crime, robbery and prostitution as well as many other social vices that make the cities unsustainable. The resultant effects of all these are abysmal failure in the management of cities on the part of the governing authorities and other relevant stakeholders as well as unconducive and unwholesome condition of living of the people. This paper attempts to examine holistically the issue of environmental planning management (EPM) process development and management concept with a view for dynamic and interactive approach for various stakeholders as partners in achieving sustainable cities of our dream. The areas of discussion including conceptual and contextual issues, sustainable cities concept, good urban governance including literature review. The paper goes further to examine opportunities and challenges of built environment generally, the nature and context of environmental problems in particular, the role and duties of environmental planning and management (EPM) process in sustainable urban development. The paper further reviewed briefly the various levels of institutionalisation of EPM process with a typical case study of sustainable Ibadan project (SIP). The paper concludes with a list of recommendations to ensure effective and lasting solutions to cities problems through initiation of EPM process achievable in a sustainable manner.

Keywords: built environment, environmental planning, sustainable cities, sustainable development, urbanization

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433 Impact of Social Crisis on Property Market Performance and Evolving Strategy for Improved Property Transactions in Crisis Prone Environment: A Case Study of North Eastern Nigeria

Authors: A. Yakub AbdurRaheem

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Urban violence in the form of ethnic and religious conflicts have been on the increase in many African cities in the recent years of which most of them are the result of intense and bitter competition for political power, the control of limited economic, social and environmental resources. In Nigeria, the emergence of the Boko Haram insurgency in most parts of the northeastern parts have ignited violence, bloodshed, refugee exodus and internal migration. Not only do the persistent attacks of the sect create widespread insecurity and fear, but it has also stifled normal processes of trade and investments most especially real property investment which is acclaimed to accelerate the economic cycle, thus the need to evolve strategies for an improved property market in such areas. This paper, therefore, examines the impact of this social crisis on effective and efficient utilization of real properties as a resource towards the development of the economy, using a descriptive analysis approach where particular emphasis was based on trends in residential housing values; volume of estimated property transactions and real estate investment decisions by affected individuals. Findings indicate that social crisis in the affected areas have been a clog on the wheels of property development and investment as properties worth hundreds of millions have been destroyed thereby having great impact on property values. Based on these findings, recommendations were made to include the need to strategically continue investing in property during such times, the need for Nigerian government to establish an active conflict monitoring and management unit for the prompt response, encourage community and neighborhood policing to ameliorate security challenges in Nigeria.

Keywords: social crisis, economy, resources, property market

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432 Promoting Civic Health through Patient Voter Registration

Authors: Amit Syal, Madeline Grade, Alister Martin

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Background: Cross-sectional and longitudinal studies demonstrate an association between health and voting. Furthermore, voting enables populations to support policies that impact their health via social determinants like income, education, housing, and healthcare access. Unfortunately, many barriers exist which disproportionately affect the civic participation of certain minority groups. Health professionals have an important role to play in addressing the civic health of all patients and empowering underrepresented communities. Description: Vot-ER is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that aims to reduce barriers to civic participation by helping patients register to vote while in healthcare settings. The initial approach involved iPad-based kiosks in the emergency department waiting rooms, allowing patients to register themselves while waiting. After the COVID-19 pandemic began, Vot-ER expanded its touchless digital approaches. Vot-ER provides healthcare workers across the country with “Healthy Democracy Kits” consisting of badge backers, posters, discharge paperwork, and other resources. These contain QR and text codes that direct users to an online platform for registering to vote or requesting a mail-in ballot, available in English or Spanish. Outcomes: From May to November 2020, Vot-ER helped prepare 46,320 people to vote. 13,192 individual healthcare providers across all 50 states signed up for and received Healthy Democracy Kits. 80 medical schools participated in the Healthy Democracy Campaign competition. Over 500 institutions ordered site-based materials. Conclusions: A healthy democracy is one in which all individuals in a community have equal and fair opportunities for their voices to be heard. Healthcare settings, such as hospitals, are appropriate and effective venues for increasing both voter registration and education.

Keywords: civic health, enfranchisement, physician, voting

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431 Sustainable Accommodation Design: Improving Residential Property Shortage for Low-Income People in Nigeria

Authors: Paulinus W. Ihuah, Iyenemi Ibimina Kakulu, Victor A. Akujuru

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The development of the residential property is very expensive in Nigeria, especially as it is observed in Port Harcourt, although it is also investment costly in the other cities of Nigeria. The costly development nature incidentally reasons to the high deficits in residential property availability and affordability for the low-income people. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to provide sustainable accommodation design, which should improve residential property expensiveness and shortages for the low-income people. This is achieved through investigation of the tangible requirements and needs of the end-user of the property (low-income people), which thereafter would enhance sustainable and affordable residential property accommodation design for the end-users. Both the quantitative and qualitative instruments of data collection were utilised. The quantitative instrument via questionnaires was designed to examine the real needs and r requirement of the low-income people. However, the qualitative instrument via structured interview was espoused for the gathering of professionals’ opinions on the three predicted sustainable accommodation design alternatives. The analysis employed content analysis parameters, which offered a sustainable accommodation design and designed alternatives minimises costs and environmental impacts whereas exploiting the social satisfaction in residential accommodation developments. The finding underscores that sustainable accommodation design and development is practicable in Nigeria, so that cost of residential accommodation provided through this system is cheap to the low-income people. Further, erection of multi-storey residential accommodation units such as bedsit structure by utilising the concrete frame structure and building the internal and external walls with hollow concrete blocks within areas 60-130 square meters is encouraged. This paper philosophy indicates that by using sustainable accommodation design practices in Nigeria, improvements in the costs and shortages of residential accommodation can be attained for low-income people. However, policies support the government cannot be overemphasised for proper implementation of the suggested scheme.

Keywords: sustainable accommodation, housing design, residential property, low-income people

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430 Land Use Changes and Its Implications on Livelihood Activities in Msaranga Peri-Urban Settlement in Moshi Municipality, Tanzania

Authors: Magigi Wakuru, Gaudensi Kapinga

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This study examines land use changes and its implications on livelihood activities of peri-urban settlements in Msaranga, Moshi Municipality. Specifically; it analyses the historical development of the settlement, socioeconomic characteristics and land use changes over time. Likely, find out existing livelihood activities and how have been changing over time in the context of urbanization, and lastly highlights land use change implications on livelihood activities to residents. Interviews, observations, documentary reviews and mapping were data collection tools employed. The study shows that housing, urban agriculture, roads infrastructure, recreational, open spaces and institutions are some land use types existing in the settlement. On-farm and off-farm livelihood activities have been identified livelihood activities in the settlement. These include crop cultivation, livestock keeping, trading and formal employment and have been changing over time. However, urbanisation observed to be a catalyst of change and affect livelihood activities over time. Resorting to off-farm livelihoods activities including engaging in retail business and seeking employment in formal and informal sector are some copying strategies documented. The study wind up by pointing roles of different actors and issues of particular attention to different stakeholders towards reducing impact of land use changes on livelihood strategies in the settlement. Likely, unresolved issues for future research and policy development agenda are highlighted in this study. The study concludes that the impact of land use changes on livelihood activities need collaborative effort of different stakeholders, policy enforcement as well as public private partnership in issues based implementation in cities like Moshi where land use is rapidly changing over time within urban planning cycles due to increasing population demand in cities of Sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: land use, land use changes, livelihood activities, peri-urban settlement, Moshi, Tanzania

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429 Strategies for a Sustainable Neighbourhood in a Smart City: A Case of Pattoor, Thiruvananthapuram

Authors: Vijaya Nhaloor, Suja Kumari Leela, Jose Devadasan

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Planning of neighbourhood development strategies in Tier 2 Indian city is highly significant when it has also been selected as a Smart city by the Ministry of Urban Development in India. Smart city mission of India proposes the development of infrastructure in a city in an inclusive way. Thiruvananthapuram, the capital city of Kerala state, India, has been selected as the city to conduct the research. The master plan for the city of Thiruvananthapuram envisions it as a Compact city and proposes densification as a tool for development. Densification may adversely affect the quality of life after a tipping point. This may lead to urban decay which in turn directly or indirectly affects the surrounding neighbourhoods also, thus spreading blight areas in the city. The author thinks that density in urban planning is not a well detailed subject in India, with respect to its varied links on infrastructure, quality of life, transportation, scope of vertical planning, affordability etc. Neighbourhoods are vital tissues of an urban area, and their development directly affects the development of the region. The methodology would involve skimming of proactive neighbourhood planning principles compatible with the Smart city mission in India. United Nations proposes sustainability as a way of planning development of a neighbourhood. After defining various terminologies involved, a framework shall be developed to analyse an existing neighbourhood and prepare planning guidelines in a sustainable manner. The framework shall comply with international and national policy guidelines. The research shall explore and identify a neighbourhood with the potential to meet the housing demand from the investment regions nearby and analyse its potential and weakness as per this framework. Later, a set of indicators shall be enlisted to guide the development of the neighbourhood, leading to recommendations that shall serve as a replicable model for the other neighbourhoods in the Smart city.

Keywords: key indicators, neighbourhood planning, sustainability, smart city

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428 Field Study of Chlorinated Aliphatic Hydrocarbons Degradation in Contaminated Groundwater via Micron Zero-Valent Iron Coupled with Biostimulation

Authors: Naijin Wu, Peizhong Li, Haijian Wang, Wenxia Wei, Yun Song

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Chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs) pollution poses a severe threat to human health and is persistent in groundwater. Although chemical reduction or bioremediation is effective, it is still hard to achieve their complete and rapid dechlorination. Recently, the combination of zero-valent iron and biostimulation has been considered to be one of the most promising strategies, but field studies of this technology are scarce. In a typical site contaminated by various types of CAHs, basic physicochemical parameters of groundwater, CAHs and their product concentrations, and microbial abundance and diversity were monitored after a remediation slurry containing both micron zero-valent iron (mZVI) and biostimulation components were directly injected into the aquifer. Results showed that groundwater could form and keep low oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), a neutral pH, and anoxic conditions after different degrees of fluctuations, which was benefit for the reductive dechlorination of CAHs. The injection also caused an obvious increase in the total organic carbon (TOC) concentration and sulfate reduction. After 253 days post-injection, the mean concentration of total chlorinated ethylene (CEE) from two monitoring wells decreased from 304 μg/L to 8 μg/L, and total chlorinated ethane (CEA) decreased from 548 μg/L to 108 μg/L. Occurrence of chloroethane (CA) suggested that hydrogenolysis dechlorination was one of the main degradation pathways for CEA, and also hints that biological dechlorination was activated. A significant increase of ethylene at day 67 post-injection indicated that dechlorination was complete. Additionally, the total bacterial counts increased by 2-3 orders of magnitude after 253 days post-injection. And the microbial species richness decreased and gradually changed to anaerobic/fermentative bacteria. The relative abundance of potential degradation bacteria increased corresponding to the degradation of CAHs. This work demonstrates that mZVI and biostimulation can be combined to achieve the efficient removal of various CAHs from contaminated groundwater sources.

Keywords: chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons, groundwater, field study, zero-valent iron, biostimulation

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427 Efficiency Validation of Hybrid Cooling Application in Hot and Humid Climate Houses of KSA

Authors: Jamil Hijazi, Stirling Howieson

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Reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions are probably the greatest challenge now facing mankind. From considerations surrounding global warming and CO2 production, it has to be recognized that oil is a finite resource and the KSA like many other oil-rich countries will have to start to consider a horizon where hydro-carbons are not the dominant energy resource. The employment of hybrid ground-cooling pipes in combination with the black body solar collection and radiant night cooling systems may have the potential to displace a significant proportion of oil currently used to run conventional air conditioning plant. This paper presents an investigation into the viability of such hybrid systems with the specific aim of reducing cooling load and carbon emissions while providing all year-round thermal comfort in a typical Saudi Arabian urban housing block. Soil temperatures were measured in the city of Jeddah. A parametric study then was carried out by computational simulation software (DesignBuilder) that utilized the field measurements and predicted the cooling energy consumption of both a base case and an ideal scenario (typical block retro-fitted with insulation, solar shading, ground pipes integrated with hypocaust floor slabs/stack ventilation and radiant cooling pipes embed in floor). Initial simulation results suggest that careful ‘ecological design’ combined with hybrid radiant and ground pipe cooling techniques can displace air conditioning systems, producing significant cost and carbon savings (both capital and running) without appreciable deprivation of amenity.

Keywords: cooling load, energy efficiency, ground pipe cooling, hybrid cooling strategy, hydronic radiant systems, low carbon emission, passive designs, thermal comfort

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426 New Experiences into Pancreatic Disease Science

Authors: Nadia Akbarpour

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Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a forceful and obliterating illness, which is portrayed by intrusiveness, fast movement, and significant protection from treatment. Advances in neurotic arrangement and malignant growth hereditary qualities have worked on our illustrative comprehension of this infection; be that as it may, significant parts of pancreatic disease science remain ineffectively comprehended. A superior comprehension of pancreatic disease science should lead the way to more viable medicines. In the course of the most recent couple of years, there have been significant advances in the sub-atomic and organic comprehension of pancreatic malignancy. This included comprehension of the genomic intricacy of the illness, the job of pancreatic malignant growth undifferentiated organisms, the importance of the growth microenvironment, and the one-of-a-kind metabolic transformation of pancreas disease cells to acquire supplements under hypoxic climate. Endeavors have been made towards the advancement of the practical answer for its treatment with compelled achievement due to its complicated science. It is grounded that pancreatic malignancy undifferentiated cells (CSCs), yet present in a little count, contribute extraordinarily to PC inception, movement, and metastasis. Standard chemo and radiotherapeutic choices, notwithstanding, grow general endurance, the connected aftereffects are a huge concern. In the midst of the latest decade, our understanding with regards to atomic and cell pathways engaged with PC and the job of CSCs in its movement has expanded massively. By and by, the center is to target CSCs. The natural items have acquired a lot of thought as of late as they, generally, sharpen CSCs to chemotherapy and target atomic flagging engaged with different cancers, including PC. Some arranged investigations have demonstrated promising outcomes recommending that assessments in this course bring a ton to the table for the treatment of PC. Albeit preclinical investigations uncovered the significance of natural items in lessening pancreatic carcinoma, restricted examinations have been led to assess their part in centers. The current survey gives another knowledge to late advances in pancreatic malignancy science, treatment, and the current status of natural items in its expectation.

Keywords: pancreatic, genomic, organic, cancer

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425 Characterising the Dynamic Friction in the Staking of Plain Spherical Bearings

Authors: Jacob Hatherell, Jason Matthews, Arnaud Marmier

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Anvil Staking is a cold-forming process that is used in the assembly of plain spherical bearings into a rod-end housing. This process ensures that the bearing outer lip conforms to the chamfer in the matching rod end to produce a lightweight mechanical joint with sufficient strength to meet the pushout load requirement of the assembly. Finite Element (FE) analysis is being used extensively to predict the behaviour of metal flow in cold forming processes to support industrial manufacturing and product development. On-going research aims to validate FE models across a wide range of bearing and rod-end geometries by systematically isolating and understanding the uncertainties caused by variations in, material properties, load-dependent friction coefficients and strain rate sensitivity. The improved confidence in these models aims to eliminate the costly and time-consuming process of experimental trials in the introduction of new bearing designs. Previous literature has shown that friction coefficients do not remain constant during cold forming operations, however, the understanding of this phenomenon varies significantly and is rarely implemented in FE models. In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the normal contact pressure versus friction coefficient relationship is outlined using friction calibration charts generated via iterative FE models and ring compression tests. When compared to previous research, this new approach greatly improves the prediction of forming geometry and the forming load during the staking operation. This paper also aims to standardise the FE approach to modelling ring compression test and determining the friction calibration charts.

Keywords: anvil staking, finite element analysis, friction coefficient, spherical plain bearing, ring compression tests

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424 Autophagy Suppresses Bladder Tumor Formation in a Mouse Orthotopic Bladder Tumor Formation Model

Authors: Wan-Ting Kuo, Yi-Wen Liu, Hsiao-Sheng Liu

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Annual incidence of bladder cancer increases in the world and occurs frequently in the male. Most common type is transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) which is treated by transurethral resection followed by intravesical administration of agents. In clinical treatment of bladder cancer, chemotherapeutic drugs-induced apoptosis is always used in patients. However, cancers usually develop resistance to chemotherapeutic drugs and often lead to aggressive tumors with worse clinical outcomes. Approximate 70% TCC recurs and 30% recurrent tumors progress to high-grade invasive tumors, indicating that new therapeutic agents are urgently needed to improve the successful rate of overall treatment. Nonapoptotic program cell death may assist to overcome worse clinical outcomes. Autophagy which is one of the nonapoptotic pathways provides another option for bladder cancer patients. Autophagy is reported as a potent anticancer therapy in some cancers. First of all, we established a mouse orthotopic bladder tumor formation model in order to create a similar tumor microenvironment. IVIS system and micro-ultrasound were utilized to noninvasively monitor tumor formation. In addition, we carried out intravesical treatment in our animal model to be consistent with human clinical treatment. In our study, we carried out intravesical instillation of the autophagy inducer in mouse orthotopic bladder tumor to observe tumor formation by noninvasive IVIS system and micro-ultrasound. Our results showed that bladder tumor formation is suppressed by the autophagy inducer, and there are no significant side effects in the physiology of mice. Furthermore, the autophagy inducer upregulated autophagy in bladder tissues of the treated mice was confirmed by Western blot, immunohistochemistry, and immunofluorescence. In conclusion, we reveal that a novel autophagy inducer with low side effects suppresses bladder tumor formation in our mouse orthotopic bladder tumor model, and it provides another therapeutic approach in bladder cancer patients.

Keywords: bladder cancer, transitional cell carcinoma, orthotopic bladder tumor formation model, autophagy

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423 Trans-Activator of Transcription-Tagged Active AKT1 Variants for Delivery to Mammalian Cells

Authors: Tarana Siddika, Ilka U. Heinemann, Patrick O’Donoghue

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Protein kinase B (AKT1) is a serine/threonine kinase and central transducer of cell survival pathways. Typical approaches to study AKT1 biology in cells rely on growth factor or insulin stimulation that activates AKT1 via phosphorylation at two key regulatory sites (Threonine308, Serine473), yet cell stimulation also activates many other kinases and fails to differentiate the effect of the two main activating sites of AKT1 on downstream substrate phosphorylation and cell growth. While both AKT1 activating sites are associated with disease and used as clinical markers, in some cancers, high levels of Threonine308 phosphorylation are associated with poor prognosis while in others poor survival correlates with high Serine473 levels. To produce cells with specific AKT1 activity, a system was developed to deliver active AKT1 to human cells. AKT1 phospho-variants were produced from Escherichia coli with programmed phosphorylation by genetic code expansion. Tagging of AKT1 with an N-terminal cell penetrating peptide tag derived from the human immunodeficiency virus trans-activator of transcription (TAT) helped to enter AKT1 proteins in mammalian cells. The TAT-tag did not alter AKT1 kinase activity and was necessary and sufficient to rapidly deliver AKT1 protein variants that persisted in human cells for 24 h without the need to use transfection reagents. TAT-pAKT1T308, TAT-pAKT1S473 and TAT-pAKT1T308S473 proteins induced selective phosphorylation of the known AKT1 substrate GSK-3αβ, and downstream stimulation of the AKT1 pathway as evidenced by phosphorylation of ribosomal protein S6 at Serine240/244 in transfected cells. Increase in cell growth and proliferation was observed due to the transfection of different phosphorylated AKT1 protein variants compared to cells with TAT-AKT1 protein. The data demonstrate efficient delivery of AKT1 with programmed phosphorylation to human cells, thus establishing a cell-based model system to investigate signaling that is dependent on specific AKT1 activity and phosphorylation.

Keywords: cell penetrating peptide, cell signaling, protein kinase b (AKT1), phosphorylation

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422 Identification of the Expression of Top Deregulated MiRNAs in Rheumatoid Arthritis and Osteoarthritis

Authors: Hala Raslan, Noha Eltaweel, Hanaa Rasmi, Solaf Kamel, May Magdy, Sherif Ismail, Khalda Amr

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Introduction: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an inflammatory, autoimmune disorder with progressive joint damage. Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative disease of the articular cartilage that shows multiple clinical manifestations or symptoms resembling those of RA. Genetic predisposition is believed to be a principal etiological factor for RA and OA. In this study, we aimed to measure the expression of the top deregulated miRNAs that might be the cause of pathogenesis in both diseases, according to our latest NGS analysis. Six of the deregulated miRNAs were selected as they had multiple target genes in the RA pathway, so they are more likely to affect the RA pathogenesis.Methods: Eighty cases were recruited in this study; 45 rheumatoid arthiritis (RA), 30 osteoarthiritis (OA) patients, as well as 20 healthy controls. The selection of the miRNAs from our latest NGS study was done using miRwalk according to the number of their target genes that are members in the KEGG RA pathway. Total RNA was isolated from plasma of all recruited cases. The cDNA was generated by the miRcury RT Kit then used as a template for real-time PCR with miRcury Primer Assays and the miRcury SYBR Green PCR Kit. Fold changes were calculated from CT values using the ΔΔCT method of relative quantification. Results were compared RA vs Controls and OA vs Controls. Target gene prediction and functional annotation of the deregulated miRNAs was done using Mienturnet. Results: Six miRNAs were selected. They were miR-15b-3p, -128-3p, -194-3p, -328-3p, -542-3p and -3180-5p. In RA samples, three of the measured miRNAs were upregulated (miR-194, -542, and -3180; mean Rq= 2.6, 3.8 and 8.05; P-value= 0.07, 0.05 and 0.01; respectively) while the remaining 3 were downregulated (miR-15b, -128 and -328; mean Rq= 0.21, 0.39 and 0.6; P-value= <0.0001, <0.0001 and 0.02; respectively) all with high statistical significance except miR-194. While in OA samples, two of the measured miRNAs were upregulated (miR-194 and -3180; mean Rq= 2.6 and 7.7; P-value= 0.1 and 0.03; respectively) while the remaining 4 were downregulated (miR-15b, -128, -328 and -542; mean Rq= 0.5, 0.03, 0.08 and 0.5; P-value= 0.0008, 0.003, 0.006 and 0.4; respectively) with statistical significance compared to controls except miR-194 and miR-542. The functional enrichment of the selected top deregulated miRNAs revealed the highly enriched KEGG pathways and GO terms. Conclusion: Five of the studied miRNAs were greatly deregulated in RA and OA, they might be highly involved in the disease pathogenesis and so might be future therapeutic targets. Further functional studies are crucial to assess their roles and actual target genes.

Keywords: MiRNAs, expression, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis

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421 Evaluation of the Impact of Community Based Disaster Risk Management Applied In Landslide Prone Area; Reference to Badulla District

Authors: S. B. D. Samarasinghe, Malini Herath

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Participatory planning is a very important process for decision making and choosing the best alternative options for community welfare, development of the society and its interactions among community and professionals. People’s involvement is considered as the key guidance in participatory planning. Presently, Participatory planning is being used in many fields. It's not only limited to planning but also to disaster management, poverty, housing, etc. In the past, Disaster management practice was a top-down approach, but it raised many issues as it was converted to a bottom-up approach. There are several approaches that can aid disaster management. Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) is a very successful participatory approach to risk management that is often successfully applied by other disaster-prone countries. In the local context, CBDRM has been applied to prevent Diseases as well as to prevent disasters such as landslides, tsunamis and floods. From three years before, Sri Lanka has initiated the CBDRM approach to minimize landslide vulnerability. Hence, this study mainly focuses on the impact of CBDRM approaches on landslide hazards. Also to identify their successes and failures from both implementing parties and community. This research is carried out based on a qualitative method combined with a descriptive research approach. A successful framework was prepared via a literature review. Case studies were selected considering landslide CBDRM programs which were implemented by Disaster Management Center and National Building Research Organization in Badulla. Their processes were evaluated. Data collection is done through interviews and informal discussions. Then their ideas were quantified by using the Relative Effectiveness index. The resulting numerical value was used to rank the program effectiveness and their success, failures and impacting factors. Results show that there are several failures among implementing parties and the community. Overcoming those factors can make way for better conduction of future CBDRM programs.

Keywords: community-based disaster risk management, disaster management, preparedness, landslide

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420 The Development of the First Inter-Agency Residential Rehabilitation Service for Gambling Disorder with Complex Clinical Needs

Authors: Dragos Dragomir-Stanciu, Leon Marsh

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Background As a response to the gaps identified in recent research in the provision of residential care to address co-occurring health needs, including mental health problems and complexities Gamble Aware has facilitated the possibility to provide a new service which would extend the NGTS provision of residential rehabilitation for gambling disorder with complex and co-morbid presentation. Gordon Moody, together with Adferiad have been successful in securing the tender for this service and this presentation aims to introduce FOLD, the resulting model of treatment developed for the delivery of the service. Setting As a partnership, we have come together to coproduce a model which allows us to share our clinical and industry knowledge and build on our reputations as trusted treatment providers. The presentation will outline our expertise share in development of a unified approach to recovery-oriented models of care, clinical governance, risk assessment and management and aftercare and continuous recovery. We will also introduce our innovative specialist referral portal which will offer referring partners the ability to include the service user in planning their own recovery journey. Outcomes Our collaboration has resulted in the development of the FOLD model which includes three agile and flexible treatment packages aimed at offering the most enhanced and comprehensive treatment in UK, to date, for those most affected by gambling harm. The paper will offer insight into each treatment package and all recovery model stages involved, as well as into the partnership work with NGST providers, local mental health and social care providers and lived experience organisation that will enable us to offer support to more 100 people a year who would otherwise get “lost in the system”. Conclusion FOLD offers a great opportunity to develop, implement and evaluate a new, much needed, whole-person and whole-system approach to counter gambling related harms.

Keywords: gambling treatment, partnership working, integrated care pathways, NGTS, complex needs

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419 Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Productivity and Nutrient Use Efficiency of Maize in the Semi-arid Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Changes in precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to alter agricultural productivity patterns worldwide. The interactive effects of soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that determine crop yield and are sensitive to climatic changes. The study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and corresponding water productivity and nutrient use efficiency under climate change scenarios for the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia by mid (2041-2070) and end century (2071-2100). Projected impacts were evaluated using climate scenarios generated from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by the Swedish RCA4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5). Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate yield, water and nutrient use for the study periods. Results indicate that rainfed maize yield might decrease on average by 16.5 and 23% by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively, due to climate change. Water productivity is expected to decline on average by 2.2 and 12% in the CRV by mid and end centuries with respect to the baseline. Nutrient uptake and corresponding nutrient use efficiency (NUE) might also be negatively affected by climate change. Phosphorus uptake probably will decrease in the CRV on average by 14.5 to 18% by 2050s, while N uptake may not change significantly at Melkassa. Nitrogen and P use efficiency indicators showed decreases in the range between 8.5 to 10.5% and between 9.3 to 10.5%, respectively, by 2050s relative to the baseline average. The simulation results further indicated that a combination of increased water availability and optimum nutrient application might increase both water productivity and nutrient use efficiency in the changed climate, which can ensure modest production in the future. Potential options that can improve water availability and nutrient uptake should be identified for the study locations using a crop modeling approach.

Keywords: crop model, climate change scenario, nutrient uptake, nutrient use efficiency, water productivity

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418 Estimation of Snow and Ice Melt Contributions to Discharge from the Glacierized Hunza River Basin, Karakoram, Pakistan

Authors: Syed Hammad Ali, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Danial Hashmi, Richard Armstrong, Ahuti Shrestha, Iram Bano, Javed Hassan

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This paper presents the results of a semi-distributed modified positive degree-day model (MPDDM) for estimating snow and ice melt contributions to discharge from the glacierized Hunza River basin, Pakistan. The model uses daily temperature data, daily precipitation data, and positive degree day factors for snow and ice melt. The model is calibrated for the period 1995-2001 and validated for 2002-2013, and demonstrates close agreements between observed and simulated discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting model projected temperature, and precipitation data from 2016-2050 are used for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and bias correction was done using a statistical approach for future discharge estimation. No drastic changes in future discharge are predicted for the emissions scenarios. The aggregate snow-ice melt contribution is 39% of total discharge in the period 1993-2013. Snow-ice melt contribution ranges from 35% to 63% during the high flow period (May to October), which constitutes 89% of annual discharge; in the low flow period (November to April) it ranges from 0.02% to 17%, which constitutes 11 % of the annual discharge. The snow-ice melt contribution to total discharge will increase gradually in the future and reach up to 45% in 2041-2050. From a sensitivity analysis, it is found that the combination of a 2°C temperature rise and 20% increase in precipitation shows a 10% increase in discharge. The study allows us to evaluate the impact of climate change in such basins and is also useful for the future prediction of discharge to define hydropower potential, inform other water resource management in the area, to understand future changes in snow-ice melt contribution to discharge, and offer a possible evaluation of future water quantity and availability.

Keywords: climate variability, future discharge projection, positive degree day, regional climate model, water resource management

Procedia PDF Downloads 288