Search results for: stability region.

Authors: A. Ghaffari, A. Meghdari, D. Naderi, S. Eslami

Abstract:

In this paper an algorithm based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy controller is provided to enhance the tipover stability of mobile manipulators when they are subjected to predefined trajectories for the end-effector and the vehicle. The controller creates proper configurations for the manipulator to prevent the robot from being overturned. The optimal configuration and thus the most favorable control are obtained through soft computing approaches including a combination of genetic algorithm, neural networks, and fuzzy logic. The proposed algorithm, in this paper, is that a look-up table is designed by employing the obtained values from the genetic algorithm in order to minimize the performance index and by using this data base, rule bases are designed for the ANFIS controller and will be exerted on the actuators to enhance the tipover stability of the mobile manipulator. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Mobile Manipulator, Tipover Stability Enhancement, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Controller System, Soft Computing.

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Authors: Wenjuan Du, Jingtian Bi, Tong Wang, Haifeng Wang

Abstract:

Grid connection of a large-scale wind farm affects power system small-signal angular stability in two aspects. Firstly, connection of the wind farm brings about the change of load flow and configuration of a power system. Secondly, the dynamic interaction is introduced by the wind farm with the synchronous generators (SGs) in the power system. This paper proposes a method to assess the two aspects of the effect of the wind farm on power system small-signal angular stability. The effect of the change of load flow/system configuration brought about by the wind farm can be examined separately by displacing wind farms with constant power sources, then the effect of the dynamic interaction of the wind farm with the SGs can be also computed individually. Thus, a clearer picture and better understanding on the power system small-signal angular stability as affected by grid connection of the large-scale wind farm are provided. In the paper, an example power system with grid connection of a wind farm is presented to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: power system small-signal angular stability, power system low-frequency oscillations, electromechanical oscillation modes, wind farms, double fed induction generator (DFIG)

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Authors: Thulane Paepae, Tumisang Seodigeng

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates the use of a method of synthesizing process flowsheets using a graphical tool called the GH-plot and in particular, to look at how it can be used to compare the reactions of a combined simultaneous process with regard to their thermodynamics. The technique uses fundamental thermodynamic principles to allow the mass, energy and work balances locate the attainable region for chemical processes in a reactor. This provides guidance on what design decisions would be best suited to developing new processes that are more effective and make lower demands on raw material and energy usage.

Keywords: Attainable region, dimethyl ether synthesis, mass balance, optimal reaction networks.

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Authors: Nizar Bouguerra, Ahmed Khabou, Sébastien Poncet, Saïd Elkoun

Abstract:

The present work focuses on the preparation and the stabilization of Al₂O₃-water based nanofluids. Though they have been widely considered in the past, to the best of our knowledge, there is no clear consensus about a proper way to prepare and stabilize them by the appropriate surfactant. In this paper, a careful experimental investigation is performed to quantify the combined influence of pH and the surfactant on the stability of Al₂O₃-water based nanofluids. Two volume concentrations of nanoparticles and three nanoparticle sizes have been considered. The good preparation and stability of these nanofluids are evaluated through thermal conductivity measurements. The results show that the optimum value for the thermal conductivity is obtained mainly by controlling the pH of the mixture and surfactants are not necessary to stabilize the solution.

Keywords: Nanofluid, thermal conductivity, pH, transient hot wire, surfactant, Al2O3, stability, dispersion, preparation.

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Authors: Sakol Udomsiri, Masahiro Iwahashi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new design of spatial FIR filter to automatically detect water level from a video signal of various river surroundings. A new approach in this report applies "addition" of frames and a "horizontal" edge detector to distinguish water region and land region. Variance of each line of a filtered video frame is used as a feature value. The water level is recognized as a boundary line between the land region and the water region. Edge detection filter essentially demarcates between two distinctly different regions. However, the conventional filters are not automatically adaptive to detect water level in various lighting conditions of river scenery. An optimized filter is purposed so that the system becomes robust to changes of lighting condition. More reliability of the proposed system with the optimized filter is confirmed by accuracy of water level detection.

Keywords: water level, video, filter, detection.

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Authors: Po-Hsieh Lin, Jyi-Tsong Lin

Abstract:

A vertical SOI-based MOSFET with trench body structure operated as 1T DRAM cell at various temperatures has been studied and investigated. Different operation temperatures are assigned for the device for its performance comparison, thus the thermal stability is carefully evaluated for the future memory device applications. Based on the simulation, the vertical SOI-based MOSFET with trench body structure demonstrates the electrical characteristics properly and possess conspicuous kink effect at various operation temperatures. Transient characteristics were also performed to prove that its programming window values and retention time behaviors are acceptable when the new 1T DRAM cell is operated at high operation temperature.

Keywords: SOI, 1T DRAM, thermal stability.

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Authors: M. A. Sohaly, M. A. Elfouly

Abstract:

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a heterogeneous movement disorder that often appears in the elderly. PD is induced by a loss of dopamine secretion. Some drugs increase the secretion of dopamine. In this paper, we will simply study the stability of PD models as a nonlinear delay differential equation. After a period of taking drugs, these act as positive feedback and increase the tremors of patients, and then, the differential equation has positive coefficients and the system is unstable under these conditions. We will present a set of suggested modifications to make the system more compatible with the biodynamic system. When giving a set of numerical examples, this research paper is concerned with the mathematical analysis, and no clinical data have been used.

Keywords: Parkinson's disease, stability, simulation, two delay differential equation.

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Authors: Chigbogu G. Ozoegwu, Sam N. Omenyi

Abstract:

The objective in this work is to generate and discuss the stability results of fully-immersed end-milling process with parameters; tool mass m=0.0431kg,tool natural frequency ω_n = 5700 rads^-1, damping factor ξ=0.002 and workpiece cutting coefficient C=3.5x10^7 Nm^-7/4. Different no of teeth is considered for the end-milling. Both 1-DOF and 2-DOF chatter models of the system are generated on the basis of non-linear force law. Chatter stability analysis is carried out using a modified form (generalized for both 1-DOF and 2-DOF models) of recently developed method called Full-discretization. The full-immersion three tooth end-milling together with higher toothed end-milling processes has secondary Hopf bifurcation lobes (SHBL’s) that exhibit one turning (minimum) point each. Each of such SHBL is demarcated by its minimum point into two portions; (i) the Lower Spindle Speed Portion (LSSP) in which bifurcations occur in the right half portion of the unit circle centred at the origin of the complex plane and (ii) the Higher Spindle Speed Portion (HSSP) in which bifurcations occur in the left half portion of the unit circle. Comments are made regarding why bifurcation lobes should generally get bigger and more visible with increase in spindle speed and why flip bifurcation lobes (FBL’s) could be invisible in the low-speed stability chart but visible in the high-speed stability chart of the fully-immersed three-tooth miller.

Keywords: Chatter, flip bifurcation, modified full-discretization map stability lobe, secondary Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: Taleb Hosni Abderrahmane, Berga Abdelmadjid

Abstract:

The development of numerical analysis and its application to geomechanics problems have provided geotechnical engineers with extremely powerful tools. One of the most important problems in geotechnical engineering is the slope stability assessment. It is a very difficult task due to several aspects such the nature of the problem, experimental consideration, monitoring, controlling, and assessment. The main objective of this paper is to perform a comparative numerical study between the following methods: The Limit Equilibrium (LEM), Finite Element (FEM), Limit Analysis (LAM) and Distinct Element (DEM). The comparison is conducted in terms of the safety factors and the critical slip surfaces. Through the results, we see the feasibility to analyse slope stability by many methods.

Keywords: Comparison, factor of safety, geomechanics, numerical methods, slope analysis, slip surfaces.

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Authors: Ali Gholami, M.Esfadiari, M.H.Masihabadi

Abstract:

In this research three methods of Maximum Likelihood, Mahalanobis Distance and Minimum Distance were analyzed in the Western part of Isfahan province in the Iran country. For this purpose, the IRS satellite images and various land preparation uses in region including rangelands, irrigation farming, dry farming, gardens and urban areas were separated and identified. In these methods, matrix error and Kappa index were calculated and accuracy of each method, based on percentages: 53.13, 56.64 and 48.44, were obtained respectively. Considering the low accuracy of these methods to separate land uses due to spread of the land uses, it-s suggested the visual interpretation of the map, to preparing the land use map in this region. The map prepared by visual interpretation is in high accuracy if it will be accompany with the visit of the region.

Keywords: Aghche Region, land use map, MaximumLikelihood, Mahalanobis Distance and Minimum Distance.

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Authors: Oyugi Ngure Robert, Tabitha A. Amollo, Kallen Mulilo Nalyanya

Abstract:

Nanomaterials have attracted significant attention in research because of their exemplary properties, making them suitable for diverse applications. This paper reports the successful synthesis as well as the structural and optical properties of silver sulfide-reduced graphene oxide (Ag2S-rGO) nanocomposite. The nanocomposite was synthesized by the chemical reduction method. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed that the reduced graphene oxide (rGO) sheets were intercalated within the Ag2S nanoparticles during the chemical reduction process. The SEM images also showed that Ag2S had the shape of nanowires. Further, SEM energy dispersive X-ray (SEM EDX) showed that Ag2S-rGO is mainly composed of C, Ag, O, and S. X-ray diffraction analysis manifested a high crystallinity for the nanowire-shaped Ag2S nanoparticles with a d-spacing ranging between 1.0 Å and 5.2 Å. Thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA) showed that rGO enhances the thermal stability of the nanocomposite. Ag2S-rGO nanocomposite exhibited strong optical absorption in the UV region. The formed nanocomposite is dispersible in polar and non-polar solvents, qualifying it for solution-based device processing. Thus, the surface plasmon resonance effect associated with metallic nanoparticles, strong optical absorption, thermal stability crystallinity and hydrophilicity of the nanocomposite suits it for solar energy conversion applications.

Keywords: Silver sulfide, reduced graphene oxide, nanocomposite, structural properties, optical properties.

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Authors: Petra Heribanová, Jaroslav Polec, Michal Martinovič

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a new content-weighted method for full reference (FR) video quality control using a region of interest (ROI) and wherein two-component weighted metrics for Deaf People Video Communication. In our approach, an image is partitioned into region of interest and into region "dry-as-dust", then region of interest is partitioned into two parts: edges and background (smooth regions), while the another methods (metrics) combined and weighted three or more parts as edges, edges errors, texture, smooth regions, blur, block distance etc. as we proposed. Using another idea that different image regions from deaf people video communication have different perceptual significance relative to quality. Intensity edges certainly contain considerable image information and are perceptually significant.

Keywords: Video quality assessment, weighted MSE.

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Authors: Ali Ameur Haj Salah, Tarek Garna, Hassani Messaoud

Abstract:

This paper attempts to define the validity domain of LSDP (Loop Shaping Design Procedure) controller system, by determining the suitable uncertainty region, so that linear system be stable. Indeed the LSDP controller cannot provide stability for any perturbed system. For this, we will use the gap metric tool that is introduced into the control literature for studying robustness properties of feedback systems with uncertainty. A 2nd order electric linear system example is given to define the validity domain of LSDP controller and effectiveness gap metric.

Keywords: LSDP, Gap metric, Robust Control.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

Based on the component approach, three kinds of dynamic load models, including a single –motor model, a two-motor model and composite load model have been developed for the stability studies of Khuzestan power system. The study results are presented in this paper. Voltage instability is a dynamic phenomenon and therefore requires dynamic representation of the power system components. Industrial loads contain a large fraction of induction machines. Several models of different complexity are available for the description investigations. This study evaluates the dynamic performances of several dynamic load models in combination with the dynamics of a load changing transformer. Case study is steel industrial substation in Khuzestan power systems.

Keywords: Dynamic load, modeling, Voltage Stability.

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Authors: D. K. Tiwari, Mukesh Kumar Awasthi, G. S. Agrawal

Abstract:

The effect of an axial electric field on the capillary instability of a cylindrical interface in the presence of heat and mass transfer has been investigated using viscous potential flow theory. In viscous potential flow, the viscous term in Navier-Stokes equation vanishes as vorticity is zero but viscosity is not zero. Viscosity enters through normal stress balance in the viscous potential flow theory and tangential stresses are not considered. A dispersion relation that accounts for the growth of axisymmetric waves is derived and stability is discussed theoretically as well as numerically. Stability criterion is given by critical value of applied electric field as well as critical wave number. Various graphs have been drawn to show the effect of various physical parameters such as electric field, heat transfer capillary number, conductivity ratio, permittivity ratio on the stability of the system. It has been observed that the axial electric field and heat and mass transfer both have stabilizing effect on the stability of the system.

Keywords: Capillary instability, Viscous potential flow, Heat and mass transfer, Axial electric field.

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Authors: Ali M. Jawarneh, Ahmad S. AL-Shyyab

Abstract:

The purpose of this work is to present the potential of solar energy in Zarqa region. The solar radiation along year 2009 was obtained from Pyranometer which measures the global radiation over horizontal surfaces. Solar data in several different forms, over period of 5 minutes, hour-by-hour, daily and monthly data radiation have been presented. Briefly, the yearly global solar radiation in Zarqa is 7297.5 MJ/m2 (2027 kWh/m²) and the average annual solar radiation per day is 20 MJ/m2 (5.5 Kwh/m2). More specifically, the average annual solar radiation per day is 12.9 MJ/m2 (3.57 Kwh/m2) in winter and 25 MJ/m2 (7 Kwh/m2) in summer.

Keywords: Solar Energy, Pyranometer, Zarqa Region

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Authors: Ali Reza Rajabi, Shahab Rashnoei, Mojtaba Hakimzadeh, Amir Habibi

Abstract:

At any point of time, a power system operating condition should be stable, meeting various operational criteria and it should also be secure in the event of any credible contingency. Present day power systems are being operated closer to their stability limits due to economic and environmental constraints. Maintaining a stable and secure operation of a power system is therefore a very important and challenging issue. Voltage instability has been given much attention by power system researchers and planners in recent years, and is being regarded as one of the major sources of power system insecurity. Voltage instability phenomena are the ones in which the receiving end voltage decreases well below its normal value and does not come back even after setting restoring mechanisms such as VAR compensators, or continues to oscillate for lack of damping against the disturbances. Reactive power limit of power system is one of the major causes of voltage instability. This paper investigates the effects of coordinated series capacitors (SC) with static VAR compensators (SVC) on steady-state voltage stability of a power system. Also, the influence of the presence of series capacitor on static VAR compensator controller parameters and ratings required to stabilize load voltages at certain values are highlighted.

Keywords: Static VAR Compensator (SVC), Series Capacitor (SC), voltage stability, reactive power.

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Authors: S. Sivakumar, Ravikiran Sangras, Vasudevan Raghavan

Abstract:

In this work, stationary hot-wire measurements are carried out to investigate the characteristics of a round free jet in its potential core region (0 ≤ x/d ≤ 10). Measurements are carried out on an incompressible round jet for a range of Reynolds numbers from 4000 to 8000, calculated based on the jet exit mean velocity and the nozzle diameter. The effect of flow velocity on the development characteristics of the jet in the core region is analyzed. Timeaveraged statistics, spectra of velocity and its higher order moments are presented and explained.

Keywords: Contoured nozzle, hot-wire anemometer, Reynolds number, velocity fluctuations, velocity spectra.

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Authors: Samia Ait Ali Yahia

Abstract:

The Libyan steles contain a good number of inscriptions. We find them on blocks of sandstone in the northern part of Grande Kabylia, Algeria. Three Libyan steles recently discovered are added to the currently known and published documents which enrich the Libyan heritage of this region. The aim of this article is to make a descriptive study of the Libyan inscriptions of these steles in order to better understand the characteristics of each stele by comparing them to the different stele already known in the region. It is certain that if other similar specimens were to be added to those we already possess, knowledge of the Libyan would gradually become clearer. The Kabylia region is certainly full of these remains that have not yet been brought to light.

Keywords: Libyan stele, Libyan inscriptions, Paintings, Engraving, Kaylie.

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Authors: S. Panda, S. K. Tomar, R. Prasad, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Reduction of Single Input Single Output (SISO) continuous systems into Reduced Order Model (ROM), using a conventional and an evolutionary technique is presented in this paper. In the conventional technique, the mixed advantages of Mihailov stability criterion and continued fraction expansions (CFE) technique is employed where the reduced denominator polynomial is derived using Mihailov stability criterion and the numerator is obtained by matching the quotients of the Cauer second form of Continued fraction expansions. In the evolutionary technique method Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is employed to reduce the higher order model. PSO method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. Both the methods are illustrated through numerical example.

Keywords: Reduced Order Modeling, Stability, Continued Fraction Expansions, Mihailov Stability Criterion, Particle Swarm Optimization, Integral Squared Error.

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Authors: Inta Volodko, Valentina Koliskina

Abstract:

Linear stability analysis of wake-shear layers in twophase shallow flows is performed in the present paper. Twodimensional shallow water equations are used in the analysis. It is assumed that the fluid contains uniformly distributed solid particles. No dynamic interaction between the carrier fluid and particles is expected in the initial moment. The stability calculations are performed for different values of the particle loading parameter and two other parameters which characterize the velocity ratio and the velocity deficit. The results show that the particle loading parameter has a stabilizing effect on the flow while the increase in the velocity ratio or in the velocity deficit destabilizes the flow.

Keywords: Linear stability, Shallow flows, Wake-shear flows.

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Authors: Mukesh Kumar Awasth, Mohammad Tamsir

Abstract:

The effect of porous medium on the capillary instability of a cylindrical interface in the presence of axial electric field has been investigated using viscous potential flow theory. In viscous potential flow, the viscous term in Navier-Stokes equation vanishes as vorticity is zero but viscosity is not zero. Viscosity enters through normal stress balance in the viscous potential flow theory and tangential stresses are not considered. A dispersion relation that accounts for the growth of axisymmetric waves is derived and stability is discussed theoretically as well as numerically. Stability criterion is given by critical value of applied electric field as well as critical wave number. Various graphs have been drawn to show the effect of various physical parameters such as electric field, viscosity ratio, permittivity ratio on the stability of the system. It has been observed that the axial electric field and porous medium both have stabilizing effect on the stability of the system.

Keywords: Capillary instability, Viscous potential flow, Porous media, Axial electric field.

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Authors: Kejun Zhuang, Hailong Zhu

Abstract:

The dynamics of a delayed mathematical model for Hes1 oscillatory expression are investigated. The linear stability of positive equilibrium and existence of local Hopf bifurcation are studied. Moreover, the global existence of large periodic solutions has been established due to the global bifurcation theorem.

Keywords: Hes1, Hopf bifurcation, time delay, transcriptional repression loop

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Authors: Nadim Zgheib, Sivaramakrishnan Balachandar

Abstract:

We present results on the initial formation of ripples from an initially flattened erodible bed. We use direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent open channel flow over a fixed sinusoidal bed coupled with hydrodynamic stability analysis. We use the direct forcing immersed boundary method to account for the presence of the sediment bed. The resolved flow provides the bed shear stress and consequently the sediment transport rate, which is needed in the stability analysis of the Exner equation. The approach is different from traditional linear stability analysis in the sense that the phase lag between the bed topology, and the sediment flux is obtained from the DNS. We ran 11 simulations at a fixed shear Reynolds number of 180, but for different sediment bed wavelengths. The analysis allows us to sweep a large range of physical and modelling parameters to predict their effects on linear growth. The Froude number appears to be the critical controlling parameter in the early linear development of ripples, in contrast with the dominant role of particle Reynolds number during the equilibrium stage.

Keywords: Direct numerical simulation, immersed boundary method, sediment-bed interactions, turbulent multiphase flow, linear stability analysis.

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Authors: C. E. Madubueze, S. C. Madubueze, S. Ajama

Abstract:

Cholera is a disease that is predominately common in developing countries due to poor sanitation and overcrowding population. In this paper, a deterministic model for the dynamics of cholera is developed and control measures such as health educational message, therapeutic treatment, and vaccination are incorporated in the model. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms of the model parameters. The existence and stability of the equilibrium states, disease free and endemic equilibrium states are established and showed to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. The existence of backward bifurcation of the model is investigated. Furthermore, numerical simulation of the model developed is carried out to show the impact of the control measures and the result indicates that combined control measures will help to reduce the spread of cholera in the population.

Keywords: Backward bifurcation, cholera, equilibrium, dynamics, stability.

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Authors: Faisal AlShammari, Abdulmajid Addali

Abstract:

Monitoring the conditions of rotating machinery, such as bearings, is important in order to improve the stability of work. Acoustic Emission (AE) and vibration analysis are some of the most accomplished techniques used for this purpose. Acoustic emission has the ability to detect the initial phase of component degradation. Moreover, it has been observed that vibration analysis is not as successful at low rotational speeds (below 100 rpm). This because the energy generated within this speed region is not detectable using conventional vibration. From this perspective, this paper has presented a brief review of using acoustic emission techniques for monitoring bearing conditions.

Keywords: Condition monitoring, stress wave analysis, low-speed bearings, bearing defect diagnosis.

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Authors: Jonghyun Park, Toan Nguyen Dinh, Gueesang Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accurately detect text regions including shop name in signboard images with complex background for mobile system applications. The proposed method is based on the combination of text detection using edge profile and region segmentation using fuzzy c-means method. In the first step, we perform an elaborate canny edge operator to extract all possible object edges. Then, edge profile analysis with vertical and horizontal direction is performed on these edge pixels to detect potential text region existing shop name in a signboard. The edge profile and geometrical characteristics of each object contour are carefully examined to construct candidate text regions and classify the main text region from background. Finally, the fuzzy c-means algorithm is performed to segment and detected binarize text region. Experimental results show that our proposed method is robust in text detection with respect to different character size and color and can provide reliable text binarization result.

Keywords: Text detection, edge profile, signboard image, fuzzy clustering.

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Authors: A. Parizad, A. Khazali, M. Kalantar

Abstract:

Voltage collapse is instability of heavily loaded electric power systems that cause to declining voltages and blackout. Power systems are predicated to become more heavily loaded in the future decade as the demand for electric power rises while economic and environmental concerns limit the construction of new transmission and generation capacity. Heavily loaded power systems are closer to their stability limits and voltage collapse blackouts will occur if suitable monitoring and control measures are not taken. To control transmission lines, it can be used from FACTS devices. In this paper Harmony search algorithm (HSA) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) have applied to determine optimal location of FACTS devices in a power system to improve power system stability. Three types of FACTS devices (TCPAT, UPFS, and SVC) have been introduced. Bus under voltage has been solved by controlling reactive power of shunt compensator. Also a combined series-shunt compensators has been also used to control transmission power flow and bus voltage simultaneously. Different scenarios have been considered. First TCPAT, UPFS, and SVC are placed solely in transmission lines and indices have been calculated. Then two types of above controller try to improve parameters randomly. The last scenario tries to make better voltage stability index and losses by implementation of three types controller simultaneously. These scenarios are executed on typical 34-bus test system and yields efficiency in improvement of voltage profile and reduction of power losses; it also may permit an increase in power transfer capacity, maximum loading, and voltage stability margin.

Keywords: FACTS Devices, Voltage Stability Index, optimal location, Heuristic methods, Harmony search, Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Yucai Ding, Hong Zhu, Shouming Zhong, Yuping Zhang

Abstract:

This paper considers ­H∞ performance for Markovian jump systems with Time-varying delays. The systems under consideration involve disturbance signal, Markovian switching and timevarying delays. By using a new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and a convex optimization approach, a delay-dependent stability condition in terms of linear matrix inequality (LMI) is addressed, which guarantee asymptotical stability in mean square and a prescribed ­H∞ performance index for the considered systems. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness and the less conservatism of the proposed main results. All these results are expected to be of use in the study of stochastic systems with time-varying delays.

Keywords: ­H∞ performance, Markovian switching, Delaydependent stability, Linear matrix inequality (LMI)

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Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

Abstract:

Growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, cross-border bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012 almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. Under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.

Keywords: Security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package.

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