Search results for: Average error probability

Authors: Arkady Bolotin

Abstract:

If a possibility distribution and a probability distribution are describing values x of one and the same system or process x(t), can they relate to each other? Though in general the possibility and probability distributions might be not connected at all, we can assume that in some particular cases there is an association linked them. In the presented paper, we consider distributions of bloodstream concentrations of physiologically active substances and propose that the probability to observe a concentration x of a substance X can be produced from the possibility of the event X = x . The proposed assumptions and resulted theoretical distributions are tested against the data obtained from various panel studies of the bloodstream concentrations of the different physiologically active substances in patients and healthy adults as well.

Keywords: Possibility distributions, possibility-probability relationship.

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Authors: Vinita V. Sondur, Vilas B. Sondur, Narasimha H. Ayachit

Abstract:

It is observed that the Weighted least-square (WLS) technique, including the modifications, results in equiripple error curve. The resultant error as a percent of the ideal value is highly non-uniformly distributed over the range of frequencies for which the differentiator is designed. The present paper proposes a modification to the technique so that the optimization procedure results in lower maximum relative error compared to the ideal values. Simulation results for first order as well as higher order differentiators are given to illustrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Differentiator, equiripple, error distribution, relative error.

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Authors: Mochammad Dewo, Sumarsono Sudarto

Abstract:

The Exponential Triple Smoothing Algorithm approach nowadays, which is used to anticipate the export value of Indonesia's two major commodities, coal and palm oil, has a Mean Percentage Absolute Error (MAPE) value of 30-50%, which may be considered as a "reasonable" forecasting mistake. Forecasting errors of more than 30% shall have a domino effect on industrial output, as extra production adds to raw material, manufacturing and storage expenses. Whereas, reaching an "excellent" classification with an error value of less than 10% will provide new investors and exporters with confidence in the commercial development of related sectors. Industrial growth will bring out a positive impact on economic development. It can be applied for other commodities if the forecast error is less than 10%. The purpose of this project is to create a forecasting technique that can produce precise forecasting results with an error of less than 10%. This research analyzes forecasting methods such as ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory). By providing a MAPE of 1%, this study reveals that ANN is the most successful strategy for forecasting coal and palm oil commodities in Indonesia.

Keywords: ANN, Artificial Neural Network, ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, export value, forecast, LSTM, Long Short Term Memory.

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Authors: Sang-Chul Kim, Sung-Il Chien

Abstract:

The error diffusion method generates worm artifacts, and weakens the edge of the halftone image when the continuous gray scale image is reproduced by a binary image. First, to enhance the edges, we propose the edge-enhancing filter by considering the quantization error information and gradient of the neighboring pixels. Furthermore, to remove worm artifacts often appearing in a halftone image, we add adaptively random noise into the weights of an error filter.

Keywords: Artifact suppression, Edge enhancement, Error diffusion method, Halftone image

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Authors: Nasıf Ekiz, Tara Salih, Sibel Küçüköner, Kemal Fidanboylu

Abstract:

Continuation of an active call is one of the most important quality measurements in the cellular systems. Handoff process enables a cellular system to provide such a facility by transferring an active call from one cell to another. Different approaches are proposed and applied in order to achieve better handoff service. The principal parameters used to evaluate handoff techniques are: forced termination probability and call blocking probability. The mechanisms such as guard channels and queuing handoff calls decrease the forced termination probability while increasing the call blocking probability. In this paper we present an overview about the issues related to handoff initiation and decision and discuss about different types of handoff techniques available in the literature.

Keywords: Handoff, Forced Termination Probability, Blocking probability, Handoff Initiation, Handoff Decision, Handoff Prioritization Schemes.

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Authors: Susmita Das, Kala Praveen Bagadi

Abstract:

SDMA (Space-Division Multiple Access) is a MIMO (Multiple-Input and Multiple-Output) based wireless communication network architecture which has the potential to significantly increase the spectral efficiency and the system performance. The maximum likelihood (ML) detection provides the optimal performance, but its complexity increases exponentially with the constellation size of modulation and number of users. The QR decomposition (QRD) MUD can be a substitute to ML detection due its low complexity and near optimal performance. The minimum mean-squared-error (MMSE) multiuser detection (MUD) minimises the mean square error (MSE), which may not give guarantee that the BER of the system is also minimum. But the minimum bit error rate (MBER) MUD performs better than the classic MMSE MUD in term of minimum probability of error by directly minimising the BER cost function. Also the MBER MUD is able to support more users than the number of receiving antennas, whereas the rest of MUDs fail in this scenario. In this paper the performance of various MUD techniques is verified for the correlated MIMO channel models based on IEEE 802.16n standard.

Keywords: Multiple input multiple output, multiuser detection, orthogonal frequency division multiplexing, space division multiple access, Bit error rate

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Authors: Wararit Panichkitkosolkul

Abstract:

The unit root tests based on the robust estimator for the first-order autoregressive process are proposed and compared with the unit root tests based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator. The percentiles of the null distributions of the unit root test are also reported. The empirical probabilities of Type I error and powers of the unit root tests are estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results show that all unit root tests can control the probability of Type I error for all situations. The empirical power of the unit root tests based on the robust estimator are higher than the unit root tests based on the OLS estimator.

Keywords: Autoregressive, Ordinary least squares, Type I error, Power of the test, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Babu Sena Paul, Ratnajit Bhattacharjee

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Relay based communication has gained considerable importance in the recent years. In this paper we find the end-toend statistics of a two hop non-regenerative relay branch, each hop being Nakagami-m faded. Closed form expressions for the probability density functions of the signal envelope at the output of a selection combiner and a maximal ratio combiner at the destination node are also derived and analytical formulations are verified through computer simulation. These density functions are useful in evaluating the system performance in terms of bit error rate and outage probability.

Keywords: co-operative diversity, diversity combining, maximal ratio combining, selection combining.

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Authors: Ashutosh Kumar Singh, Anand Mohan

Abstract:

This paper deals with efficient computation of probability coefficients which offers computational simplicity as compared to spectral coefficients. It eliminates the need of inner product evaluations in determination of signature of a combinational circuit realizing given Boolean function. The method for computation of probability coefficients using transform matrix, fast transform method and using BDD is given. Theoretical relations for achievable computational advantage in terms of required additions in computing all 2n probability coefficients of n variable function have been developed. It is shown that for n ≥ 5, only 50% additions are needed to compute all probability coefficients as compared to spectral coefficients. The fault detection techniques based on spectral signature can be used with probability signature also to offer computational advantage.

Keywords: Binary Decision Diagrams, Spectral Coefficients, Fault detection

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Authors: N.R.N. Idris

Abstract:

This study uses simulated meta-analysis to assess the effects of publication bias on meta-analysis estimates and to evaluate the efficacy of the trim and fill method in adjusting for these biases. The estimated effect sizes and the standard error were evaluated in terms of the statistical bias and the coverage probability. The results demonstrate that if publication bias is not adjusted it could lead to up to 40% bias in the treatment effect estimates. Utilization of the trim and fill method could reduce the bias in the overall estimate by more than half. The method is optimum in presence of moderate underlying bias but has minimal effects in presence of low and severe publication bias. Additionally, the trim and fill method improves the coverage probability by more than half when subjected to the same level of publication bias as those of the unadjusted data. The method however tends to produce false positive results and will incorrectly adjust the data for publication bias up to 45 % of the time. Nonetheless, the bias introduced into the estimates due to this adjustment is minimal

Keywords: Publication bias, Trim and Fill method, percentage relative bias, coverage probability

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Authors: Roman Novak, Matjaz Vencelj

Abstract:

The angular distribution of Compton scattering of two quanta originating in the annihilation of a positron with an electron is investigated as a quantum key distribution (QKD) mechanism in the gamma spectral range. The geometry of coincident Compton scattering is observed on the two sides as a way to obtain partially correlated readings on the quantum channel. We derive the noise probability density function of a conceptually equivalent prepare and measure quantum channel in order to evaluate the limits of the concept in terms of the device secrecy capacity and estimate it at roughly 1.9 bits per 1 000 annihilation events. The high error rate is well above the tolerable error rates of the common reconciliation protocols; therefore, the proposed key agreement protocol by public discussion requires key reconciliation using classical error-correcting codes. We constructed a prototype device based on the readily available monolithic detectors in the least complex setup.

Keywords: Compton scattering, gamma-ray polarization, quantumcryptography, quantum key distribution

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Authors: Hyung-Weon Cho, Youngyoon Lee, Seung Goo Kang, Dahae Chong, Myungsoo Lee, Chonghan Song, Seokho Yoon

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel spectrum sensing technique for the digital video broadcasting-terrestrial (DVB-T) systems, which utilizes the periodicity of pilot signals in the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) symbols. The proposed scheme can overcome the effect of the timing synchronization error by recorrelating the correlation values in the same sample distances. The numerical results demonstrate that the detection probability performance of the proposed scheme outperforms that of the conventional scheme when there exists a timing synchronization error.

Keywords: DVB-T, spectrum sensing, OFDM, timing synchronizationerror.

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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Authors: J.S. Ubhi, M.S. Patterh, T.S. Kamal

Abstract:

In this paper, the effect of transmission codes on the performance of coherent square M-ary quadrature amplitude modulation (CSMQAM) under hybrid selection/maximal-ratio combining (H-S/MRC) diversity is analysed. The fading channels are modeled as frequency non-selective slow independent and identically distributed Rayleigh fading channels corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN). The results for coded MQAM are computed numerically for the case of (24,12) extended Golay code and compared with uncoded MQAM under H-S/MRC diversity by plotting error probabilities versus average signal to noise ratio (SNR) for various values L and N in order to examine the improvement in the performance of the digital communications system as the number of selected diversity branches is increased. The results for no diversity, conventional SC and Lth order MRC schemes are also plotted for comparison. Closed form analytical results derived in this paper are sufficiently simple and therefore can be computed numerically without any approximations. The analytical results presented in this paper are expected to provide useful information needed for design and analysis of digital communication systems over wireless fading channels.

Keywords: Error probability, diversity reception, Rayleigh fading channels, wireless digital communications.

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Authors: N. A. Salim, M. M. Othman, I. Musirin, M. S. Serwan

Abstract:

Protection system hidden failures have been identified as one of the main causes of system cascading collapse resulting to power system instability. In this paper, a systematic approach is presented in order to identify the probability of a system cascading collapse by taking into consideration the effect of protection system hidden failure. This includes the accurate calculation of the probability of hidden failure as it will provide significant impinge on the findings of the probability of system cascading collapse. The probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to identify the initial tripping of sensitive transmission lines which will contribute to a critical system cascading collapse. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is important to decide on the accurate value of the hidden failure probability as it will affect the probability of a system cascading collapse.

Keywords: Critical system cascading collapse, hidden failure, probability of cascading collapse, sensitive transmission lines.

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Authors: Yung-Yuan Hsu

Abstract:

The primary objective of this paper was to construct a “kinematic parameter-independent modeling of three-axis machine tools for geometric error measurement" technique. Improving the accuracy of the geometric error for three-axis machine tools is one of the machine tools- core techniques. This paper first applied the traditional method of HTM to deduce the geometric error model for three-axis machine tools. This geometric error model was related to the three-axis kinematic parameters where the overall errors was relative to the machine reference coordinate system. Given that the measurement of the linear axis in this model should be on the ideal motion axis, there were practical difficulties. Through a measurement method consolidating translational errors and rotational errors in the geometric error model, we simplified the three-axis geometric error model to a kinematic parameter-independent model. Finally, based on the new measurement method corresponding to this error model, we established a truly practical and more accurate error measuring technique for three-axis machine tools.

Keywords: Three-axis machine tool, Geometric error, HTM, Error measuring

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Authors: M. T. Anwar, P. K. Lala, P. Thenappan

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This paper presents the decoder design for the single error correcting and double error detecting code proposed by the authors in an earlier paper. The speed of error detection and correction of a code is largely dependent upon the associated encoder and decoder circuits. The complexity and the speed of such circuits are determined by the number of 1?s in the parity check matrix (PCM). The number of 1?s in the parity check matrix for the code proposed by the authors are fewer than in any currently known single error correcting/double error detecting code. This results in simplified encoding and decoding circuitry for error detection and correction.

Keywords: Decoder, Hsiao code, Parity Check Matrix, Syndrome Pattern.

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Authors: Yuan-Lin Chen

Abstract:

This paper presents an approaching forward collision probability index (AFCPI) for alerting and assisting driver in keeping safety distance to avoid the forward collision accident in highway driving. The time to collision (TTC) and time headway (TH) are used to evaluate the TTC forward collision probability index (TFCPI) and the TH forward collision probability index (HFCPI), respectively. The Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm is presented combining TFCPI and HFCPI to calculate the approaching collision probability index of the vehicle. The AFCPI is easier to understand for the driver who did not even have any professional knowledge in vehicle professional field. At the same time, the driver’s behavior is taken into account for suiting each driver. For the approaching index, the value 0 is indicating the 0% probability of forward collision, and the values 0.5 and 1 are indicating the 50% and 100% probabilities of forward collision, respectively. The AFCPI is useful and easy-to-understand for alerting driver to avoid the forward collision accidents when driving in highway.

Keywords: Approaching index, forward collision probability, time to collision, time headway.

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Authors: Dongdong Zhang, Deran Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, a Markovian risk model with two-type claims is considered. In such a risk model, the occurrences of the two type claims are described by two point processes {Ni(t), t ¸ 0}, i = 1, 2, where {Ni(t), t ¸ 0} is the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for the Markov jump process {Xi(t), t ¸ 0} . The ruin probability ª(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly discussed. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability ª(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ª(u) are given by using key-renewal theorem.

Keywords: Risk model, ruin probability, Markov jump process, integral equation.

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Authors: Danni Cong, Meiping Wu, Xiaofeng He, Junxiang Lian, Juliang Cao, Shaokuncai, Hao Qin

Abstract:

Gravity gradient instrument (GGI) is the core of the gravity gradiometer, so the structural error of the sensor has a great impact on the measurement results. In order not to affect the aimed measurement accuracy, limit error is required in the installation of the accelerometer. In this paper, based on the established measuring principle model, the radial installation limit error is calibrated, which is taken as an example to provide a method to calculate the other limit error of the installation under the premise of ensuring the accuracy of the measurement result. This method provides the idea for deriving the limit error of the geometry structure of the sensor, laying the foundation for the mechanical precision design and physical design.

Keywords: Gravity gradient sensor, radial installation limit error, accelerometer, uniaxial rotational modulation.

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Authors: O. P. Sharma, V. Janyani, S. Sancheti

Abstract:

Data rate, tolerable bit error rate or frame error rate and range & coverage are the key performance requirement of a communication link. In this paper performance of MFSK link is analyzed in terms of bit error rate, number of errors and total number of data processed. In the communication link model proposed, which is implemented using MATLAB block set, an improvement in BER is observed. Different parameters which effects and enables to keep BER low in M-ary communication system are also identified.

Keywords: Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN), Bit Error Rate (BER), Frequency Shift Keying (FSK), Orthogonal Signaling.

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Authors: Panpan Xu, Shulin Sui

Abstract:

The crossover probability and mutation probability are the two important factors in genetic algorithm. The adaptive genetic algorithm can improve the convergence performance of genetic algorithm, in which the crossover probability and mutation probability are adaptively designed with the changes of fitness value. We apply adaptive genetic algorithm into a function optimization problem. The numerical experiment represents that adaptive genetic algorithm improves the convergence speed and avoids local convergence.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, Adaptive genetic algorithm, Function optimization.

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Authors: Hae-Yeoun Lee

Abstract:

Reversible watermarking that not only protects the copyright but also preserve the original quality of the digital content have been intensively studied. In particular, the demand for reversible watermarking has increased. In this paper, we propose a reversible watermarking scheme based on interpolation-error shifting and error pre-compensation. The intensity of a pixel is interpolated from the intensities of neighboring pixels, and the difference histogram between the interpolated and the original intensities is obtained and modified to embed the watermark message. By restoring the difference histogram, the embedded watermark is extracted and the original image is recovered by compensating for the interpolation error. The overflow and underflow are prevented by error pre-compensation. To show the performance of the method, the proposed algorithm is compared with other methods using various test images.

Keywords: Reversible watermarking, High capacity, High quality, Interpolated error shifting, Error pre-compensation.

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Authors: J. Daba, J. Dubois

Abstract:

In this work, we improve a previously developed segmentation scheme aimed at extracting edge information from speckled images using a maximum likelihood edge detector. The scheme was based on finding a threshold for the probability density function of a new kernel defined as the arithmetic mean-to-geometric mean ratio field over a circular neighborhood set and, in a general context, is founded on a likelihood random field model (LRFM). The segmentation algorithm was applied to discriminated speckle areas obtained using simple elliptic discriminant functions based on measures of the signal-to-noise ratio with fractional order moments. A rigorous stochastic analysis was used to derive an exact expression for the cumulative density function of the probability density function of the random field. Based on this, an accurate probability of error was derived and the performance of the scheme was analysed. The improved segmentation scheme performed well for both simulated and real images and showed superior results to those previously obtained using the original LRFM scheme and standard edge detection methods. In particular, the false alarm probability was markedly lower than that of the original LRFM method with oversegmentation artifacts virtually eliminated. The importance of this work lies in the development of a stochastic-based segmentation, allowing an accurate quantification of the probability of false detection. Non visual quantification and misclassification in medical ultrasound speckled images is relatively new and is of interest to clinicians.

Keywords: Discriminant function, false alarm, segmentation, signal-to-noise ratio, skewness, speckle.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River.

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Authors: Heesung Lee, Joonkyung Sung, Euntai Kim

Abstract:

This paper proposes a method which reduces power consumption in single-error correcting, double error-detecting checker circuits that perform memory error correction code. Power is minimized with little or no impact on area and delay, using the degrees of freedom in selecting the parity check matrix of the error correcting codes. The genetic algorithm is employed to solve the non linear power optimization problem. The method is applied to two commonly used SEC-DED codes: standard Hamming and odd column weight Hsiao codes. Experiments were performed to show the performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Error correcting codes, genetic algorithm, non-linearpower optimization, Hamming code, Hsiao code.

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Authors: Komeil Valipourian

Abstract:

Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: Numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method, FDM.

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Authors: Tung-Hui Hsu, Wen-Yuh Jywe

Abstract:

Five-axis computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools (three linear and two rotary axes) are ideally suited to the fabrication of complex work pieces, such as dies, turbo blades, and cams. The locations of the axis average line and centerline of the rotary axes strongly influence the performance of these machines; however, techniques to compensate for eccentric error in the rotary axes remain weak. This paper proposes optical (Non-Bar) techniques capable of calibrating five-axis CNC machine tools and compensating for eccentric error in the rotary axes. This approach employs the measurement path in ISO/CD 10791-6 to determine the eccentric error in two rotary axes, for which compensatory measures can be implemented. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed techniques can improve the performance of various five-axis CNC machine tools by more than 90%. Finally, a result of the cutting test using a B-type five-axis CNC machine tool confirmed to the usefulness of this proposed compensation technique.

Keywords: Calibration, compensation, rotary axis, five-axis computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools, eccentric error, optical calibration system, ISO/CD 10791-6

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Authors: T. Hirner, J. Polec

Abstract:

This paper describes a new method of unequal error protection (UEP) for region of interest (ROI) with embedded zerotree wavelet algorithm (EZW). ROI technique is important in applications with different parts of importance. In ROI coding, a chosen ROI is encoded with higher quality than the background (BG). Unequal error protection of image is provided by different coding techniques. In our proposed method, image is divided into two parts (ROI, BG) that consist of more important bytes (MIB) and less important bytes (LIB). The experimental results verify effectiveness of the design. The results of our method demonstrate the comparison of the unequal error protection (UEP) of image transmission with defined ROI and the equal error protection (EEP) over multiple noisy channels.

Keywords: embedded zerotree wavelet (EZW), equal error protection (EEP), region of interest (ROI), RS code, unequal error protection (UEP)

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Authors: Yu-Sheng Lee, Qi An

Abstract:

Offset mismatch, gain mismatch, and time-skew error between time-interleaved channels limit the performance of time-interleaved analog-to-digital converters (TIADC). This paper focused on the time-skew error. A new technique for calibrating time-skew error in M-channels TIADC is described, and simulation results are also presented.

Keywords: Calibration, time-skew error, time-interleavedanalog-to-digital converters.

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