Search results for: coverage probability
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 709

Search results for: coverage probability

709 Coverage Availability for the IEEE 802.16 System over the SUI Channels with Rayleigh Fading

Authors: Shiann-Shiun Jeng, Chen-Wan Tsung, Hong-You Liou, Chun-Chieh Chang, Jia-Ming Chen

Abstract:

The coverage probability and range of IEEE 802.16 systems depend on different wireless scenarios. Evaluating the performance of IEEE 802.16 systems over Stanford University Interim (SUI) channels is suggested by IEEE 802.16 specifications. In order to derive an effective method for forecasting the coverage probability and range, this study uses the SUI channel model to analyze the coverage probability with Rayleigh fading for an IEEE 802.16 system. The BER of the IEEE 802.16 system is shown in the simulation results. Then, the maximum allowed path loss can be calculated and substituted into the coverage analysis. Therefore, simulation results show the coverage range with and without Rayleigh fading.

Keywords: OFDM, coverage, SUI channel, IEEE 802.16

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708 Coverage Probability of Confidence Intervals for the Normal Mean and Variance with Restricted Parameter Space

Authors: Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

Recent articles have addressed the problem to construct the confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution where the parameter space is restricted, see for example Wang [Confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution with restricted parameter space. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol. 78, No. 9, 2008, 829–841.], we derived, in this paper, analytic expressions of the coverage probability and the expected length of confidence interval for the normal mean when the whole parameter space is bounded. We also construct the confidence interval for the normal variance with restricted parameter for the first time and its coverage probability and expected length are also mathematically derived. As a result, one can use these criteria to assess the confidence interval for the normal mean and variance when the parameter space is restricted without the back up from simulation experiments.

Keywords: Confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, restricted parameter space.

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707 Coverage Probability Analysis of WiMAX Network under Additive White Gaussian Noise and Predicted Empirical Path Loss Model

Authors: Chaudhuri Manoj Kumar Swain, Susmita Das

Abstract:

This paper explores a detailed procedure of predicting a path loss (PL) model and its application in estimating the coverage probability in a WiMAX network. For this a hybrid approach is followed in predicting an empirical PL model of a 2.65 GHz WiMAX network deployed in a suburban environment. Data collection, statistical analysis, and regression analysis are the phases of operations incorporated in this approach and the importance of each of these phases has been discussed properly. The procedure of collecting data such as received signal strength indicator (RSSI) through experimental set up is demonstrated. From the collected data set, empirical PL and RSSI models are predicted with regression technique. Furthermore, with the aid of the predicted PL model, essential parameters such as PL exponent as well as the coverage probability of the network are evaluated. This research work may assist in the process of deployment and optimisation of any cellular network significantly.

Keywords: WiMAX, RSSI, path loss, coverage probability, regression analysis.

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706 Quantifying and Adjusting the Effects of Publication Bias in Continuous Meta-Analysis

Authors: N.R.N. Idris

Abstract:

This study uses simulated meta-analysis to assess the effects of publication bias on meta-analysis estimates and to evaluate the efficacy of the trim and fill method in adjusting for these biases. The estimated effect sizes and the standard error were evaluated in terms of the statistical bias and the coverage probability. The results demonstrate that if publication bias is not adjusted it could lead to up to 40% bias in the treatment effect estimates. Utilization of the trim and fill method could reduce the bias in the overall estimate by more than half. The method is optimum in presence of moderate underlying bias but has minimal effects in presence of low and severe publication bias. Additionally, the trim and fill method improves the coverage probability by more than half when subjected to the same level of publication bias as those of the unadjusted data. The method however tends to produce false positive results and will incorrectly adjust the data for publication bias up to 45 % of the time. Nonetheless, the bias introduced into the estimates due to this adjustment is minimal

Keywords: Publication bias, Trim and Fill method, percentage relative bias, coverage probability

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705 Confidence Intervals for the Normal Mean with Known Coefficient of Variation

Authors: Suparat Niwitpong

Abstract:

In this paper we proposed two new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. This situation occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments where the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. We propose two new confidence intervals for this problem based on the recent work of Searls [5] and the new method proposed in this paper for the first time. We derive analytic expressions for the coverage probability and the expected length of each confidence interval. Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their expected lengths.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation.

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704 Approximate Confidence Interval for Effect Size Base on Bootstrap Resampling Method

Authors: S. Phanyaem

Abstract:

This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: Effect size, confidence interval, Bootstrap Method.

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703 Harmony Search-based K-Coverage Enhancement in Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Shaimaa M. Mohamed, Haitham S. Hamza, Imane A. Saroit

Abstract:

Many wireless sensor network applications require K-coverage of the monitored area. In this paper, we propose a scalable harmony search based algorithm in terms of execution time, K-Coverage Enhancement Algorithm (KCEA), it attempts to enhance initial coverage, and achieve the required K-coverage degree for a specific application efficiently. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm achieves coverage improvement of 5.34% compared to K-Coverage Rate Deployment (K-CRD), which achieves 1.31% when deploying one additional sensor. Moreover, the proposed algorithm is more time efficient.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN), Harmony Search Algorithms, K-Coverage, Mobile WSN.

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702 On Simple Confidence Intervals for the Normal Mean with Known Coefficient of Variation

Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

In this paper we proposed the new confidence interval for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. In practice, this situation occurs normally in environment and agriculture sciences where we know the standard deviation is proportional to the mean. As a result, the coefficient of variation of is known. We propose the new confidence interval based on the recent work of Khan [3] and this new confidence interval will compare with our previous work, see, e.g. Niwitpong [5]. We derive analytic expressions for the coverage probability and the expected length of each confidence interval. A numerical method will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their expected lengths.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation.

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701 Nonconforming Control Charts for Zero-Inflated Poisson Distribution

Authors: N. Katemee, T. Mayureesawan

Abstract:

This paper developed the c-Chart based on a Zero- Inflated Poisson (ZIP) processes that approximated by a geometric distribution with parameter p. The p estimated that fit for ZIP distribution used in calculated the mean, median, and variance of geometric distribution for constructed the c-Chart by three difference methods. For cg-Chart, developed c-Chart by used the mean and variance of the geometric distribution constructed control limits. For cmg-Chart, the mean used for constructed the control limits. The cme- Chart, developed control limits of c-Chart from median and variance values of geometric distribution. The performance of charts considered from the Average Run Length and Average Coverage Probability. We found that for an in-control process, the cg-Chart is superior for low level of mean at all level of proportion zero. For an out-of-control process, the cmg-Chart and cme-Chart are the best for mean = 2, 3 and 4 at all level of parameter.

Keywords: average coverage probability, average run length, geometric distribution, zero-inflated poisson distribution

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700 Ship Detection Requirements Analysis for Different Sea States: Validation on Real SAR Data

Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

Abstract:

Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection.

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699 Towards for Admission Control in WIMAX Relay Station Mesh Network for Mobile Stations out of Coverage Using Ad-Hoc

Authors: Anas Majeed, A. A. Zaidan, B. B. Zaidan, Laiha Mat Kiah

Abstract:

WIMAX relay station mesh network has been approved by IEEE 802.16j as a standard to provide a highly data rate transmission, the RS was implemented to extend the coverage zone of the BS, for instance the MSs previously were out of the coverage of the BS they become in the coverage of the RS, therefore these MSs can have Admission control from the BS through the RS. This paper describe a problem in the mesh network Relay station, for instance the problem of how to serve the mobile stations (MSs) which are out of the Relay station coverage. This paper also proposed a solution for mobile stations out of the coverage of the WIMAX Relay stations mesh Network. Therefore Ad-hoc network defined as a solution by using its admission control schema and apply it on the mobiles inside and outside the Relay station coverage.

Keywords: WIMAX, relay station, mesh network, ad-hoc, WiFi, generic algorithm.

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698 Coverage Strategies for Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Nor Azlina Ab. Aziz, Kamarulzaman Ab. Aziz, Wan Zakiah Wan Ismail

Abstract:

Coverage is one of the main research interests in wireless sensor networks (WSN), it is used to determine the quality of service (QoS) of the networks. Therefore this paper aims to review the common strategies use in solving coverage problem in WSN. The strategies studied are used during deployment phase where the coverage is calculated based on the placement of the sensors on the region of interest (ROI). The strategies reviewed are categorized into three groups based on the approaches used, namely; force based, grid based or computational geometry based approach.

Keywords: Computational geometry, coverage, Delaunay triangulation, force, grid, Voronoi diagram, wireless sensor networks.

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697 Coverage and Capacity Performance Degradation on a Co-Located Network Involving CDMA2000 and WCDMA @1.9GH

Authors: O. C. Nosiri, V. E. Idigo, C. O. Ohaneme, K. A. Akpado

Abstract:

Coverage and capacity performance in a cellular network determines the system potentials. If the coverage radius is limited, end users suffer poor service quality, if the system capacity reduces, fewer subscribers will be accommodated. This paper investigated the performance effects of the noise rise caused by the spurious emission from a co-located jammer involving downlink frequency of CDMA2000 and uplink frequency of WCDMA operating at 1.9GHz. Measurements were carried out to evaluate the impact on the coverage radius and the system capacity.

Keywords: Capacity, Co-location, Coverage, Noise rise.

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696 Coverage and Connectivity Problem in Sensor Networks

Authors: Meenakshi Bansal, Iqbal Singh, Parvinder S. Sandhu

Abstract:

In over deployed sensor networks, one approach to Conserve energy is to keep only a small subset of sensors active at Any instant. For the coverage problems, the monitoring area in a set of points that require sensing, called demand points, and consider that the node coverage area is a circle of range R, where R is the sensing range, If the Distance between a demand point and a sensor node is less than R, the node is able to cover this point. We consider a wireless sensor network consisting of a set of sensors deployed randomly. A point in the monitored area is covered if it is within the sensing range of a sensor. In some applications, when the network is sufficiently dense, area coverage can be approximated by guaranteeing point coverage. In this case, all the points of wireless devices could be used to represent the whole area, and the working sensors are supposed to cover all the sensors. We also introduce Hybrid Algorithm and challenges related to coverage in sensor networks.

Keywords: Wireless sensor networks, network coverage, Energy conservation, Hybrid Algorithms.

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695 Further Investigations on Higher Mathematics Scores for Chinese University Students

Authors: Xun Ge

Abstract:

Recently, X. Ge and J. Qian investigated some relations between higher mathematics scores and calculus scores (resp. linear algebra scores, probability statistics scores) for Chinese university students. Based on rough-set theory, they established an information system S = (U,CuD,V, f). In this information system, higher mathematics score was taken as a decision attribute and calculus score, linear algebra score, probability statistics score were taken as condition attributes. They investigated importance of each condition attribute with respective to decision attribute and strength of each condition attribute supporting decision attribute. In this paper, we give further investigations for this issue. Based on the above information system S = (U, CU D, V, f), we analyze the decision rules between condition and decision granules. For each x E U, we obtain support (resp. strength, certainty factor, coverage factor) of the decision rule C —>x D, where C —>x D is the decision rule induced by x in S = (U, CU D, V, f). Results of this paper gives new analysis of on higher mathematics scores for Chinese university students, which can further lead Chinese university students to raise higher mathematics scores in Chinese graduate student entrance examination.

Keywords: Rough set, support, strength, certainty factor, coverage factor.

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694 Cluster Based Energy Efficient and Fault Tolerant n-Coverage in Wireless Sensor Network

Authors: D. Satish Kumar, N. Nagarajan

Abstract:

Coverage conservation and extend the network lifetime are the primary issues in wireless sensor networks. Due to the large variety of applications, coverage is focus to a wide range of interpretations. The applications necessitate that each point in the area is observed by only one sensor while other applications may require that each point is enclosed by at least sensors (n>1) to achieve fault tolerance. Sensor scheduling activities in existing Transparent and non- Transparent relay modes (T-NT) Mobile Multi-Hop relay networks fails to guarantee area coverage with minimal energy consumption and fault tolerance. To overcome these issues, Cluster based Energy Competent n- coverage scheme called (CEC n-coverage scheme) to ensure the full coverage of a monitored area while saving energy. CEC n-coverage scheme uses a novel sensor scheduling scheme based on the n-density and the remaining energy of each sensor to determine the state of all the deployed sensors to be either active or sleep as well as the state durations. Hence, it is attractive to trigger a minimum number of sensors that are able to ensure coverage area and turn off some redundant sensors to save energy and therefore extend network lifetime. In addition, decisive a smallest amount of active sensors based on the degree coverage required and its level. A variety of numerical parameters are computed using ns2 simulator on existing (T-NT) Mobile Multi-Hop relay networks and CEC n-coverage scheme. Simulation results showed that CEC n-coverage scheme in wireless sensor network provides better performance in terms of the energy efficiency, 6.61% reduced fault tolerant in terms of seconds and the percentage of active sensors to guarantee the area coverage compared to exiting algorithm.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor network, Mobile Multi-Hop relay networks, n-coverage, Cluster based Energy Competent, Transparent and non- Transparent relay modes, Fault Tolerant, sensor scheduling.

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693 The Possibility-Probability Relationship for Bloodstream Concentrations of Physiologically Active Substances

Authors: Arkady Bolotin

Abstract:

If a possibility distribution and a probability distribution are describing values x of one and the same system or process x(t), can they relate to each other? Though in general the possibility and probability distributions might be not connected at all, we can assume that in some particular cases there is an association linked them. In the presented paper, we consider distributions of bloodstream concentrations of physiologically active substances and propose that the probability to observe a concentration x of a substance X can be produced from the possibility of the event X = x . The proposed assumptions and resulted theoretical distributions are tested against the data obtained from various panel studies of the bloodstream concentrations of the different physiologically active substances in patients and healthy adults as well.

Keywords: Possibility distributions, possibility-probability relationship.

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692 Confidence Intervals for the Difference of Two Normal Population Variances

Authors: Suparat Niwitpong

Abstract:

Motivated by the recent work of Herbert, Hayen, Macaskill and Walter [Interval estimation for the difference of two independent variances. Communications in Statistics, Simulation and Computation, 40: 744-758, 2011.], we investigate, in this paper, new confidence intervals for the difference between two normal population variances based on the generalized confidence interval of Weerahandi [Generalized Confidence Intervals. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(423): 899-905, 1993.] and the closed form method of variance estimation of Zou, Huo and Taleban [Simple confidence intervals for lognormal means and their differences with environmental applications. Environmetrics 20: 172-180, 2009]. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that our proposed confidence intervals give a better coverage probability than that of the existing confidence interval. Also two new confidence intervals perform similarly based on their coverage probabilities and their average length widths.

Keywords: Confidence interval, generalized confidence interval, the closed form method of variance estimation, variance.

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691 An Overview of Handoff Techniques in Cellular Networks

Authors: Nasıf Ekiz, Tara Salih, Sibel Küçüköner, Kemal Fidanboylu

Abstract:

Continuation of an active call is one of the most important quality measurements in the cellular systems. Handoff process enables a cellular system to provide such a facility by transferring an active call from one cell to another. Different approaches are proposed and applied in order to achieve better handoff service. The principal parameters used to evaluate handoff techniques are: forced termination probability and call blocking probability. The mechanisms such as guard channels and queuing handoff calls decrease the forced termination probability while increasing the call blocking probability. In this paper we present an overview about the issues related to handoff initiation and decision and discuss about different types of handoff techniques available in the literature.

Keywords: Handoff, Forced Termination Probability, Blocking probability, Handoff Initiation, Handoff Decision, Handoff Prioritization Schemes.

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690 Computation of Probability Coefficients using Binary Decision Diagram and their Application in Test Vector Generation

Authors: Ashutosh Kumar Singh, Anand Mohan

Abstract:

This paper deals with efficient computation of probability coefficients which offers computational simplicity as compared to spectral coefficients. It eliminates the need of inner product evaluations in determination of signature of a combinational circuit realizing given Boolean function. The method for computation of probability coefficients using transform matrix, fast transform method and using BDD is given. Theoretical relations for achievable computational advantage in terms of required additions in computing all 2n probability coefficients of n variable function have been developed. It is shown that for n ≥ 5, only 50% additions are needed to compute all probability coefficients as compared to spectral coefficients. The fault detection techniques based on spectral signature can be used with probability signature also to offer computational advantage.

Keywords: Binary Decision Diagrams, Spectral Coefficients, Fault detection

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689 Determination of Sensitive Transmission Lines Due to the Effect of Protection System Hidden Failure in a Critical System Cascading Collapse

Authors: N. A. Salim, M. M. Othman, I. Musirin, M. S. Serwan

Abstract:

Protection system hidden failures have been identified as one of the main causes of system cascading collapse resulting to power system instability. In this paper, a systematic approach is presented in order to identify the probability of a system cascading collapse by taking into consideration the effect of protection system hidden failure. This includes the accurate calculation of the probability of hidden failure as it will provide significant impinge on the findings of the probability of system cascading collapse. The probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to identify the initial tripping of sensitive transmission lines which will contribute to a critical system cascading collapse. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is important to decide on the accurate value of the hidden failure probability as it will affect the probability of a system cascading collapse.

Keywords: Critical system cascading collapse, hidden failure, probability of cascading collapse, sensitive transmission lines.

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688 An Approaching Index to Evaluate a forward Collision Probability

Authors: Yuan-Lin Chen

Abstract:

This paper presents an approaching forward collision probability index (AFCPI) for alerting and assisting driver in keeping safety distance to avoid the forward collision accident in highway driving. The time to collision (TTC) and time headway (TH) are used to evaluate the TTC forward collision probability index (TFCPI) and the TH forward collision probability index (HFCPI), respectively. The Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm is presented combining TFCPI and HFCPI to calculate the approaching collision probability index of the vehicle. The AFCPI is easier to understand for the driver who did not even have any professional knowledge in vehicle professional field. At the same time, the driver’s behavior is taken into account for suiting each driver. For the approaching index, the value 0 is indicating the 0% probability of forward collision, and the values 0.5 and 1 are indicating the 50% and 100% probabilities of forward collision, respectively. The AFCPI is useful and easy-to-understand for alerting driver to avoid the forward collision accidents when driving in highway.

Keywords: Approaching index, forward collision probability, time to collision, time headway.

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687 Ruin Probability for a Markovian Risk Model with Two-type Claims

Authors: Dongdong Zhang, Deran Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, a Markovian risk model with two-type claims is considered. In such a risk model, the occurrences of the two type claims are described by two point processes {Ni(t), t ¸ 0}, i = 1, 2, where {Ni(t), t ¸ 0} is the number of jumps during the interval (0, t] for the Markov jump process {Xi(t), t ¸ 0} . The ruin probability ª(u) of a company facing such a risk model is mainly discussed. An integral equation satisfied by the ruin probability ª(u) is obtained and the bounds for the convergence rate of the ruin probability ª(u) are given by using key-renewal theorem.

Keywords: Risk model, ruin probability, Markov jump process, integral equation.

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686 Application of Adaptive Genetic Algorithm in Function Optimization

Authors: Panpan Xu, Shulin Sui

Abstract:

The crossover probability and mutation probability are the two important factors in genetic algorithm. The adaptive genetic algorithm can improve the convergence performance of genetic algorithm, in which the crossover probability and mutation probability are adaptively designed with the changes of fitness value. We apply adaptive genetic algorithm into a function optimization problem. The numerical experiment represents that adaptive genetic algorithm improves the convergence speed and avoids local convergence.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, Adaptive genetic algorithm, Function optimization.

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685 Performance of a Connected Random Covered Energy Efficient Wireless Sensor Network

Authors: M. Mahdavi, M. Ismail, K. Jumari, Z. M. Hanapi

Abstract:

For the sensor network to operate successfully, the active nodes should maintain both sensing coverage and network connectivity. Furthermore, scheduling sleep intervals plays critical role for energy efficiency of wireless sensor networks. Traditional methods for sensor scheduling use either sensing coverage or network connectivity, but rarely both. In this paper, we use random scheduling for sensing coverage and then turn on extra sensor nodes, if necessary, for network connectivity. Simulation results have demonstrated that the number of extra nodes that is on with upper bound of around 9%, is small compared to the total number of deployed sensor nodes. Thus energy consumption for switching on extra sensor node is small.

Keywords: Wireless sensor networks, energy efficient network, performance analysis, network coverage.

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684 A Review of Coverage and Routing for Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Hamid Barati, Ali Movaghar, Ali Barati, Arash Azizi Mazreah

Abstract:

The special constraints of sensor networks impose a number of technical challenges for employing them. In this review, we study the issues and existing protocols in three areas: coverage and routing. We present two types of coverage problems: to determine the minimum number of sensor nodes that need to perform active sensing in order to monitor a certain area; and to decide the quality of service that can be provided by a given sensor network. While most routing protocols in sensor networks are data-centric, there are other types of routing protocols as well, such as hierarchical, location-based, and QoS-aware. We describe and compare several protocols in each group. We present several multipath routing protocols and single-path with local repair routing protocols, which are proposed for recovering from sensor node crashes. We also discuss some transport layer schemes for reliable data transmission in lossy wireless channels.

Keywords: Sensor networks, Coverage, Routing, Robustness.

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683 An Adaptive Cooperative Scheme for Reliability of Transmission Using STBC and CDD in Wireless Communications

Authors: Hyun-Jun Shin, Jae-Jeong Kim, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

In broadcasting and cellular system, a cooperative  scheme is proposed for the improvement of performance of bit error  rate. Up to date, the coverage of broadcasting system coexists with the  coverage of cellular system. Therefore each user in a cellular coverage  is frequently involved in a broadcasting coverage. The proposed  cooperative scheme is derived from the shared areas. The users receive  signals from both broadcasting station and cellular station. The  proposed scheme selects a cellular base station of a worse channel to  achieve better performance of bit error rate in cooperation. The  performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated in fading channel.

Keywords: Cooperative communication, diversity, STBC, CDD, channel condition, broadcasting system, cellular system.

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682 Determination of the Best Fit Probability Distribution for Annual Rainfall in Karkheh River at Iran

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River.

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681 A Case Study on the Numerical-Probability Approach for Deep Excavation Analysis

Authors: Komeil Valipourian

Abstract:

Urban advances and the growing need for developing infrastructures has increased the importance of deep excavations. In this study, after the introducing probability analysis as an important issue, an attempt has been made to apply it for the deep excavation project of Bangkok’s Metro as a case study. For this, the numerical probability model has been developed based on the Finite Difference Method and Monte Carlo sampling approach. The results indicate that disregarding the issue of probability in this project will result in an inappropriate design of the retaining structure. Therefore, probabilistic redesign of the support is proposed and carried out as one of the applications of probability analysis. A 50% reduction in the flexural strength of the structure increases the failure probability just by 8% in the allowable range and helps improve economic conditions, while maintaining mechanical efficiency. With regard to the lack of efficient design in most deep excavations, by considering geometrical and geotechnical variability, an attempt was made to develop an optimum practical design standard for deep excavations based on failure probability. On this basis, a practical relationship is presented for estimating the maximum allowable horizontal displacement, which can help improve design conditions without developing the probability analysis.

Keywords: Numerical probability modeling, deep excavation, allowable maximum displacement, finite difference method, FDM.

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680 Probability of Globality

Authors: Eva Eggeling, Dieter W. Fellner, Torsten Ullrich

Abstract:

The objective of global optimization is to find the globally best solution of a model. Nonlinear models are ubiquitous in many applications and their solution often requires a global search approach; i.e. for a function f from a set A ⊂ Rn to the real numbers, an element x0 ∈ A is sought-after, such that ∀ x ∈ A : f(x0) ≤ f(x). Depending on the field of application, the question whether a found solution x0 is not only a local minimum but a global one is very important. This article presents a probabilistic approach to determine the probability of a solution being a global minimum. The approach is independent of the used global search method and only requires a limited, convex parameter domain A as well as a Lipschitz continuous function f whose Lipschitz constant is not needed to be known.

Keywords: global optimization, probability theory, probability of globality

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