Search results for: scenario comparison

Authors: Jan Muhammad, Saad Malik, Fadia W. Al-Azawi, Ali Imran

Abstract:

In the era of climate variability, rising temperatures are the most significant aspect. In this study PRECIS model data and observed data are used for assessing the temperature change scenarios of Sindh province during the first half of present century. Observed data from various meteorological stations of Sindh are the primary source for temperature change detection. The current scenario (1961–1990) and the future one (2010-2050) are acted by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 * 25 km. Regional Climate Model (RCM) can yield reasonably suitable projections to be used for climate-scenario. The main objective of the study is to map the simulated temperature as obtained from climate model-PRECIS and their comparison with observed temperatures. The analysis is done on all the districts of Sindh in order to have a more precise picture of temperature change scenarios. According to results the temperature is likely to increases by 1.5 - 2.1°C by 2050, compared to the baseline temperature of 1961-1990. The model assesses more accurate values in northern districts of Sindh as compared to the coastal belt of Sindh. All the district of the Sindh province exhibit an increasing trend in the mean temperature scenarios and each decade seems to be warmer than the previous one. An understanding of the change in temperatures is very vital for various sectors such as weather forecasting, water, agriculture, and health, etc.

Keywords: PRECIS Model, real observed data, Arc GIS, interpolation techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

Abstract:

The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Mohammad A. Alia

Abstract:

With the rapid evolution of the internet applications, cloud computing becomes one of today’s hottest research areas due to its ability to reduce costs associated with computing. Cloud is, therefore, increasing flexibility and scalability for computing services in the internet. Cloud computing is Internet based computing due to shared resources and information which are dynamically delivered to consumers. As cloud computing share resources via the open network, hence cloud outsourcing is vulnerable to attack. Therefore, this paper will explore data security of cloud computing by implementing chaotic cryptography. The proposal scenario develops a problem transformation technique that enables customers to secretly transform their information. This work proposes the chaotic cryptographic algorithms have been applied to enhance the security of the cloud computing accessibility. However, the proposed scenario is secure, easy and straightforward process. The chaotic encryption and digital signature systems ensure the security of the proposed scenario. Though, the choice of the key size becomes crucial to prevent a brute force attack.

Keywords: chaos, cloud computing, security, cryptography

Procedia PDF Downloads 308

Authors: Ilham Priadythama, Pringgo Widyo Laksono, Agung Pamungkas

Abstract:

Myoelectric is prosthetic, flexible, and offered industrial application has been highly developed and widely used. Myoelectric hand use myoelectric signal from muscle to activate and control the membrane part of hand. Commonly myoelectric signal is detected on human arm from skin surface. So that it only small magnitude signal captured. Detecting myoelectric signal on the skin surface takes proper and consistent procedure. This paper provides preliminary study of electrodes position which gives best signal strength for five basic grasping. Two-position scenario used to place three channel electrodes set. A bi-potential amplifier based on AD620 used to amplify the signal. Finally, the signal was analyzed using DSSF3 software. From this study, we found that grasp type was stronger using first scenario electrode placement while the rest type better with another scenario.

Keywords: myoelectric signal, basic grasp, DSSF3, electrode, bi-potential amplifier

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: John Okanda Okwaro

Abstract:

Carbon (IV) oxide (CO₂) is emitted majorly from fossil fuel combustion and industrial production. The sources of interest of carbon (IV) oxide in the study area are mining activities, transport systems, and industrial processes. This study is aimed at building models that will help in monitoring the emissions within the study area. Three scenarios were discussed, namely: pessimistic scenario, business-as-usual scenario, and optimistic scenario. The result showed that there was a reduction in carbon dioxide concentration by approximately 50.5 ppm between March 2020 and January 2021 inclusive. This is majorly due to reduced human activities that led to decreased consumption of energy. Also, the CO₂ concentration trend follows the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) path. From the models, the pessimistic, business-as-usual, and optimistic scenarios give CO₂ concentration of about 545.9 ppm, 408.1 ppm, and 360.1 ppm, respectively, on December 31st, 2021. This research helps paint the picture to the policymakers of the relationship between energy sources and CO₂ emissions. Since the reduction in CO₂ emission was due to decreased use of fossil fuel as there was a decrease in economic activities, then if Kenya relies more on green energy than fossil fuel in the post-COVID-19 period, there will be more CO₂ emission reduction. That is, the CO₂ concentration trend is likely to follow the optimistic scenario path, hence a reduction in CO₂ concentration of about 48 ppm by the end of the year 2021. This research recommends investment in solar energy by energy-intensive companies, mine machinery and equipment maintenance, investment in electric vehicles, and doubling tree planting efforts to achieve the 10% cover.

Keywords: forecasting, greenhouse gas, green energy, hierarchical data format

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Kafait Ullah, Kashif Imran, Arshad Mahmood, Maarten Arentsen

Abstract:

Poor planning and governance in the power sector of Pakistan have generated several issues ranging from gradual reliance on thermal-based expensive energy mix, supply shortages, unrestricted demand, subsidization, inefficiencies at different levels of the value chain and resultantly, the circular debt. This situation in the power sector has also hampered the growth of allied economic sectors. This study uses the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system for electricity modelling of Pakistan from the period of 2016 to 2040. The study has first time in Pakistan forecasted the electricity demand at the provincial level. At the supply side, five scenarios Business as Usual Scenario (BAUS), Coal Scenario (CS), Gas Scenario (GS), Nuclear Scenario (NS) and Renewable Scenario (RS) have been analyzed based on the techno-economic and environmental parameters. The study has also included environmental externality costs for evaluating the actual costs and benefits of different scenarios. Contrary to the expectations, RS has a lower output than even BAUS. The study has concluded that the generation from RS has five times lesser costs than BAUS, CS, and GS. NS can also be an alternative for the sustainable future of Pakistan. Generation from imported coal is not a good option, however, indigenous coal with clean coal technologies should be promoted. This paper proposes energy planners of the country to devise incentives for the utilization of indigenous energy resources including renewables on priority and then clean coal to reduce the energy crises of Pakistan.

Keywords: economic evaluation, externality cost, penetration of renewable energy, regional electricity supply-demand planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: A. Hol

Abstract:

Even in the well developed countries like Australia, Small to Medium Farmers do not often have the power over the market prices as they are more often than not set by the farming agents. This in turn creates problems as farmers only get to know for how much their produce has been sold for by the agents three to four weeks after the sale has taken the place. To see and identify if and how peri-urban Sydney farmers could be assisted, carefully selected group of peri-urban Sydney farmers of the stone fruit has been interviewed. Following the case based interviews collected data was analyzed in detail using the Scenario Based Transformation principles. Analyzed data was then used to create a most common transformation case. The case identified that a mobile web based system could be develop so that framers can monitor agent earnings and in turn gain more power over the markets. It is expected that after the system has been in action for six months to a year, farmers will become empowered and they will gain means to monitor the market and negotiate agent prices.

Keywords: mobile applications, farming, scenario-based analysis, scenario-based transformation, user empowerment

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: P. Agnivesh, P. V. Ponambala Moorthi

Abstract:

Evolution of information modelling leads to the visualisation of well-organized built environment. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is considered as evolution in the off-site construction which essentially enhances and controls the present scenario of on-site construction paradigms. Promptness, sustainability and security are considered as the important characteristics of the building information modelling. Projects that uses BIM are tied firmly by technology but distributed organizationally. This allows different team members in the project to associate and integrate the works and work flows. This will in turn improve the efficiency of work breakdown structure. Internationally BIM had been accepted as modern computer aided way of information sharing by construction industry for efficient way of manipulation in order to avoid the on-site misperceptions. Even though, in developing countries like India BIM is in the phase of start and requires lot of mandates and policies to be brought about by the government for its widespread implementations. This paper reviews the current scenario of BIM worldwide and in India and suggests for the improved implementation of building modelling for Indian policy condition.

Keywords: building information modelling, Indian polity, information modelling, information sharing, mandates and policies, sustainability.

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Fatemeh Mohajeri

Abstract:

Road traffic accidents lead to a higher rate of death and injury, especially in vulnerable road users such as pedestrians. Improving the safety of facilities for pedestrians is a major concern for policymakers because of the high number of pedestrian fatalities and direct and indirect costs which are imposed to the society. This study focuses on the idea of determining the willingness to pay of pedestrians for increasing their safety while crossing the street. In this study, three different scenarios including crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities, crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities and installing a pedestrian traffic light and constructing a pedestrian bridge with escalator are presented. The research was conducted based on stated preferences method. The required data were collected from a questionnaire that consisted of three parts: pedestrian’s demographic characteristics, travel characteristics and scenarios. Four different payment amounts are presented for each scenario and a logit model has been built for each proposed payment. The results show that sex, age, education, average household income and individual salary have significant effect on choosing a scenario. Among the policies that have been mentioned through the questionnaire scenarios, the scenario of crossing the street with zebra crossing facilities and installing a traffic lights is the most frequent, with willingness to pay 10,000 Rials and the scenario of crossing the street with a zebra crossing with a willingness to pay 100,000 Rials having the least frequency. For all scenarios, as the payment is increasing, the willingness to pay decreases.

Keywords: pedestrians, willingness to pay, safety, immunization

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Reina Kawase

Abstract:

World GHG emissions should be reduced 50% by 2050 compared with 1990 level. CO2 emission reduction from steel sector, an energy-intensive sector, is essential. To estimate CO2 emission from steel sector in the world, estimation of steel production is required. The world steel production by process is estimated during the period of 2005-2050. The world is divided into aggregated 35 regions. For a steel making process, two kinds of processes are considered; basic oxygen furnace (BOF) and electric arc furnace (EAF). Steel production by process in each region is decided based on a current production capacity, supply-demand balance of steel and scrap, technology innovation of steel making, steel consumption projection, and goods trade. World steel production under moderate countermeasure scenario in 2050 increases by 1.3 times compared with that in 2012. When domestic scrap recycling is promoted, steel production in developed regions increases about 1.5 times. The share in developed regions changes from 34 %(2012) to about 40%(2050). This is because developed regions are main suppliers of scrap. 48-57% of world steel production is produced by EAF. Under the scenario which thinks much of supply-demand balance of steel, steel production in developing regions increases is 1.4 times and is larger than that in developed regions. The share in developing regions, however, is not so different from current level. The increase in steel production by EAF is the largest under the scenario in which supply-demand balance of steel is an important factor. The share reaches 65%.

Keywords: global steel production, production distribution scenario, steel making process, supply-demand balance

Procedia PDF Downloads 419

Authors: KumarShashvat, ArshpreetKaur, RajeshKumar, Raman Chadha

Abstract:

Wireless sensor networks have principal characteristic of having restricted energy and with limitation that energy of the nodes cannot be replenished. To increase the lifetime in this scenario WSN route for data transmission is opted such that utilization of energy along the selected route is negligible. For this energy efficient network, dandy infrastructure is needed because it impinges the network lifespan. Clustering is a technique in which nodes are grouped into disjoints and non–overlapping sets. In this technique data is collected at the cluster head. In this paper, Adaptive-PSO algorithm is proposed which forms energy aware clusters by minimizing the cost of locating the cluster head. The main concern is of the suitability of the swarms by adjusting the learning parameters of PSO. Particle Swarm Optimization converges quickly at the beginning stage of the search but during the course of time, it becomes stable and may be trapped in local optima. In suggested network model swarms are given the intelligence of the spiders which makes them capable enough to avoid earlier convergence and also help them to escape from the local optima. Comparison analysis with traditional PSO shows that new algorithm considerably enhances the performance where multi-dimensional functions are taken into consideration.

Keywords: Particle Swarm Optimization, adaptive – PSO, comparison between PSO and A-PSO, energy efficient clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Debasis Sarkar

Abstract:

Development of a Smart City would depend upon the development of its infrastructure in a smart way. Primarily based on the ideology of the fourth industrial revolution a Smart City project should have Smart governance, smart health care, smart building, smart transportation, smart mobility, smart energy, smart technology and smart citizen. Considering the Indian scenario of current state of cities in India, it has become very essential to decide the specific parameters which would govern the development of a Smart City project. It has been observed that there are significant parameters beyond Information and Communication Technology (ICT), which govern the development of a Smart City project. This paper is an attempt to identify the Critical Success Factors (CSF) which are significantly responsible for the development of a Smart City project in Western India. Responses to questionnaire survey were analyzed on basis of Likert scale. They were further critically evaluated with help of Factor Comparison Method (FCM) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The project authorities need to incorporate Building Information Modeling (BIM) to make the smart city project more collaborative. To make the project more sustainable, use of flyash in the concrete used, reduced usage of cement and steel, use of alternate fuels like biodiesel is recommended.

Keywords: analytical hierarchical process, building information modeling, critical success factors, factor comparison method

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Hiroaki Nasu, Ryota Miyamoto, Yuta Kodera, Yasuyuki Nogami

Abstract:

To promote Industry 4.0 and Society 5.0 and so on, it is important to connect and share data so that every member can trust it. Blockchain (BC) technology is currently attracting attention as the most advanced tool and has been used in the financial field and so on. However, the data collaboration using BC has not progressed sufficiently among companies on the supply chain of manufacturing industry that handle sensitive data such as product quality, manufacturing conditions, etc. There are two main reasons why data utilization is not sufficiently advanced in the industrial supply chain. The first reason is that manufacturing information is top secret and a source for companies to generate profits. It is difficult to disclose data even between companies with transactions in the supply chain. In the blockchain mechanism such as Bitcoin using PKI (Public Key Infrastructure), in order to confirm the identity of the company that has sent the data, the plaintext must be shared between the companies. Another reason is that the merits (scenarios) of collaboration data between companies are not specifically specified in the industrial supply chain. For these problems this paper proposes a Business to Business (B2B) collaboration system using homomorphic encryption and BC technique. Using the proposed system, each company on the supply chain can exchange confidential information on encrypted data and utilize the data for their own business. In addition, this paper considers a scenario focusing on quality data, which was difficult to collaborate because it is a top secret. In this scenario, we show a implementation scheme and a benefit of concrete data collaboration by proposing a comparison protocol that can grasp the change in quality while hiding the numerical value of quality data.

Keywords: business to business data collaboration, industrial supply chain, blockchain, homomorphic encryption

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Solopova Olga

Abstract:

The present paper briefly recalls theoretical preconditions for investigating cognitive-discursive models of future in political discourse. The author reviews theories and methods used for strengthening a future focus in this discourse working out two main tools – a model of future and a metaphorical scenario. The paper examines the implications of metaphorical analogies for modeling future in mass media. It argues that metaphor is not merely a rhetorical ornament in the political discourse of media regulation but a conceptual model that legislates and regulates our understanding of future.

Keywords: cognitive approach, future research, political discourse, model, scenario, metaphor

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: K. C. Iyer, T. Gupta, Y. M. Bindal

Abstract:

Head office overhead (HOOH) is an indirect cost and is recovered through individual project billings by the contractor. Delay in a project impacts the absorption of HOOH cost allocated to that particular project and thus diminishes the expected profit of the contractor. This unabsorbed HOOH cost is later claimed by contractors as damages. The subjective nature of the available formulae to compute unabsorbed HOOH is the difficulty that contractors and owners face and thus dispute it. The paper attempts to bring together the rationale of various HOOH formulae by gathering contractor’s HOOH cost data on all of its project, using case study approach and comparing variations in values of HOOH using scenario analysis. The case study approach uses project data collected from four construction projects of a contractor in India to calculate unabsorbed HOOH costs from various available formulae. Scenario analysis provides further variations in HOOH values after considering two independent situations mainly scope changes and new projects during the delay period. Interestingly, one of the findings in this study reveals that, in spite of HOOH getting absorbed by additional works available during the period of delay, a few formulae depict an increase in the value of unabsorbed HOOH, neglecting any absorption by the increase in scope. This indicates that these formulae are inappropriate for use in case of a change to the scope of work. Results of this study can help both parties in deciding on an appropriate formula more objectively, considering the events on a project causing the delay and contractor's position in respect of obtaining new projects.

Keywords: absorbed and unabsorbed overheads, head office overheads, scenario analysis, scope variation

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Vinod Kumar Jaysaval, Prateek Agarwal

Abstract:

Performance prediction of airborne radar is a challenging and cumbersome task in clutter scenario for different types of targets. A generalized model requires to predict the performance of Radar for air targets as well as ground moving targets. In this paper, we propose a generalized model to bring out the performance of airborne radar for different Pulsed Repetition Frequency (PRF) as well as different type of targets. The model provides a platform to bring out different subsystem parameters for different applications and performance requirements under different types of clutter terrain.

Keywords: airborne radar, blind zone, clutter, probability of detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 437

Authors: Shahira Mahmoud Yacout

Abstract:

Writing is an essential skill in many vocational, academic environments, and notably workplaces, yet many students perceive writing as being something tiring and boring or maybe a “waste of time”. Studies in the field of foreign languages related this fact might be due to the lack of connection between what is learned in the university and what students come to encounter in real life situations”. Arabic learners felt they needed more language exposure to the context of their future professions. With this idea in mind, Scenario based learning (SBL) is reported to be an educational approach to motivate, engage and stimulate students’ interest and to achieve the desired writing learning outcomes. In addition, researchers suggested Scenario based learning (SBL)as an instructional approach that develops and enhances students skills through developing higher order thinking skills and active learning. It is a subset of problem-based learning and case-based learning. The approach focuses on authentic rhetorical framing reflecting writing tasks in real life situations. It works successfully when used to simulate real-world practices, providing context that reflects the types of situations professionals respond to in writing. It was claimed that using realistic scenarios customized to the course’s learning objectives as it bridged the gap for students between theory and application. Within this context, it is thought that scenario-based learning is an important approach to enhance the learners’ writing skills and to reflect meaningful learning within authentic contexts. As an Arabicforeign language instructor, it was noticed that students find difficulties in adapting writing styles to authentic writing contexts and addressing different audiences and purposes. This idea is supported by studieswho claimed that AFL students faced difficulties with transferring writing skills to situations outside of the classroom context. In addition, it was observed that some of the Arabic textbooks for teaching Arabic as a foreign language lacked topics that initiated higher order thinking skills and stimulated the learners to understand the setting, and created messages appropriate to different audiences, context, and purposes. The goals of this study are to 1)provide a rational for using scenario-based learning approach to improveAFL learners in writing skills, 2) demonstrate how to design/ implement a scenario-based learning technique aligned with the writing course objectives,3) demonstrate samples of scenario-based approach implemented in AFL writing class, and 4)emphasis the role of peer-review along with the instructor’s feedback, in the process of developing the writing skill. Finally, this presentation highlighted and emphasized the importance of using the scenario-based learning approach in writing as a means to mirror students’ real-life situations and engage them in planning, monitoring, and problem solving. This approach helped in making writing an enjoyable experience and clearly useful to students’ future professional careers.

Keywords: meaningful learning, real life contexts, scenario based learning, writing skill

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

Abstract:

Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One models of Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictands to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 to 105 cm. Furthermore the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Melissa Langevin, Natalie Ward, Colleen Fitzgibbons, Christa Ramsey, Melanie Hogue, Anna Theresa Lobos

Abstract:

Description: Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is used by health care teams to examine adverse events (AEs) to identify causes which then leads to recommendations for prevention Despite widespread use, RCA has limitations. Best practices have not been established for implementing recommendations or tracking the impact of interventions after AEs. During phase 1 of this study, we used simulation to analyze two fictionalized AEs that occurred in hospitalized paediatric patients to identify and understand how the errors occurred and generated recommendations to mitigate and prevent recurrences. Scenario A involved an error of commission (inpatient drug error), and Scenario B involved detecting an error that already occurred (critical care drug infusion error). Recommendations generated were: improved drug labeling, specialized drug kids, alert signs and clinical checklists. Aim: Use simulation to optimize interventions recommended post critical event analysis prior to implementation in the clinical environment. Methods: Suggested interventions from Phase 1 were designed and tested through scenario simulation in the clinical environment (medicine ward or pediatric intensive care unit). Each scenario was simulated 8 times. Recommendations were tested using different, voluntary teams and each scenario was debriefed to understand why the error was repeated despite interventions and how interventions could be improved. Interventions were modified with subsequent simulations until recommendations were felt to have an optimal effect and data saturation was achieved. Along with concrete suggestions for design and process change, qualitative data pertaining to employee communication and hospital standard work was collected and analyzed. Results: Each scenario had a total of three interventions to test. In, scenario 1, the error was reproduced in the initial two iterations and mitigated following key intervention changes. In scenario 2, the error was identified immediately in all cases where the intervention checklist was utilized properly. Independently of intervention changes and improvements, the simulation was beneficial to identify which of these should be prioritized for implementation and highlighted that even the potential solutions most frequently suggested by participants did not always translate into error prevention in the clinical environment. Conclusion: We conclude that interventions that help to change process (epinephrine kit or mandatory checklist) were more successful at preventing errors than passive interventions (signage, change in memory aids). Given that even the most successful interventions needed modifications and subsequent re-testing, simulation is key to optimizing suggested changes. Simulation is a safe, practice changing modality for institutions to use prior to implementing recommendations from RCA following AE reviews.

Keywords: adverse events, patient safety, pediatrics, root cause analysis, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Ali Y Al-Attraqchi, P. Rajeev, M. Javad Hashemi, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

Abstract:

This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

Keywords: fire, nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis, progressive collapse, structural engineering

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Felipe A. Guth, Shane Ward, Kevin McDonnell

Abstract:

In the precision agriculture area, one of the main tasks is the automated detection of diseases in crops. Machine Learning algorithms have been studied in recent decades for such tasks in view of their potential for improving economic outcomes that automated disease detection may attain over crop fields. The latest generation of deep learning convolution neural networks has presented significant results in the area of image classification. In this way, this work has tested the implementation of an architecture of deep learning convolution neural network for the detection of diseases in different types of crops. A data augmentation strategy was used to meet the requirements of the algorithm implemented with a deep learning framework. Two test scenarios were deployed. The first scenario implemented a neural network under images extracted from a controlled environment while the second one took images both from the field and the controlled environment. The results evaluated the generalisation capacity of the neural networks in relation to the two types of images presented. Results yielded a general classification accuracy of 59% in scenario 1 and 96% in scenario 2.

Keywords: convolutional neural networks, deep learning, disease detection, precision agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Robert Jacobsen

Abstract:

Flood inundation maps (FIMs) are an essential tool in communicating flood threat scenarios to the public as well as in floodplain governance. With an increasing demand for online raster FIMs, the FIM State-of-the-Practice (SOP) is rapidly advancing to meet the dual requirements for high-resolution and high-accuracy—or High-Definition. Importantly, today’s technology also enables the resolution of problems of local—neighborhood-scale—bias errors that often occur in FIMs, even with the use of SOP two-dimensional flood modeling. To facilitate the development of HD-FIMs, a new GIS method--Raster Adjustment with Scenario Profiles, RASPTM—is described for adjusting kernel raster FIMs to match refined scenario profiles. With RASPTM, flood professionals can prepare HD-FIMs for a wide range of scenarios with available kernel rasters, including kernel rasters prepared from vector FIMs. The paper provides detailed procedures for RASPTM, along with an example of applying RASPTM to prepare an HD-FIM for the August 2016 Flood in Louisiana using both an SOP kernel raster and a kernel raster derived from an older vector-based flood insurance rate map. The accuracy of the HD-FIMs achieved with the application of RASPTM to the two kernel rasters is evaluated.

Keywords: hydrology, mapping, high-definition, inundation

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Liping Li, Wenan Tan, Na Wang

Abstract:

With the rapid development of information technology, project management has gained more and more attention recently. Based on CDIO, this paper proposes some teaching reform ideas for software project management curriculum. We first change from Teacher-centered classroom to Student-centered and adopt project-driven, scenario animation show, teaching rhythms, case study and team work practice to improve students' learning enthusiasm. Results showed these attempts have been well received and very effective; as well, students prefer to learn with this curriculum more than before the reform.

Keywords: CDIO, teaching reform, engineering education, project-driven, scenario animation simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 403

Authors: M. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal Khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H. Sharma, Fatema Akram

Abstract:

Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameter stationary. However, climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise (SLR). To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment

Procedia PDF Downloads 488

Authors: Andriana Mkrtchyan, Vahe Khlghatyan

Abstract:

The choice of a profession is one of the most important decisions people make throughout their life. With the development of modern science, technologies, and all the spheres existing in the modern world, more and more professions are being arisen that complicate even more the process of choosing. Hence, there is a need for a guiding platform to help people to choose a profession and the right career path based on their interests, skills, and personality. This review aims at analyzing existing methods of comparing PDF format documents and suggests that a 3-stage approach is implemented for the comparison, that is – 1. text extraction from PDF format documents, 2. comparison of the extracted text via NLP algorithms, 3. comparison representation using special shape and color psychology methodology.

Keywords: color psychology, data acquisition/extraction, data augmentation, disambiguation, natural language processing, outlier detection, semantic similarity, text-mining, user evaluation, visual search

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: Alfi Al Fahreizy

Abstract:

Yogyakarta is one of the provinces in Indonesia that often get a power outage because of high load electrical consumption. The authors mapped the electrical energy consumption [GWh] for the province of Yogyakarta in 2014-2025 using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) software. This paper use BAU (Business As Usual) scenario. BAU scenario in which the projection is based on the assumption that growth in electricity consumption will run as normally as before. The goal is to be able to see the electrical energy consumption in the household sector, industry , business, social, government office building, and street lighting. The data is the data projected statistical population and consumption data electricity [GWh] 2010, 2011, 2012 in Yogyakarta province.

Keywords: LEAP, energy consumption, Yogyakarta, BAU

Procedia PDF Downloads 565

Authors: Ravi Nandu, Anmol Taploo

Abstract:

As per current scenario, commercial aircrafts have been very well functioning with higher efficiency, but there is something that affects it. Every aircraft runs with the combustion produced by mixture of fuel and air. For example: A flight to travel from Mumbai to Kolkata it takes 2h: 30 min and from Kolkata to Mumbai it takes 2h: 45 min. It happens due to head and tail wind. Due to head wind air craft travels faster than its usual velocity and it takes 2h: 30 min to reach to Kolkata, while it takes 2h;45min vis versa. This lag in time is caused due to head wind that increases the drag and reduces the relative velocity of the plane. So in order to reduce this wastage of fuel there is an optimal flight altitude at which the head and tail wind action is reduced compared to the present scenario.

Keywords: drag, head wind, tail wind, aircraft

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Peña Aguilar Juan M., Arriaga Barrera H., Velázquez Alejos Miguel, Genis Ernesto, Valencia Pérez L. R., Bermúdez Peña M. Carmen

Abstract:

To give a general view of the innovation environments is the aim of this paper, we pretend to make an analysis between Mexico and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa- countries belonging to the group of five major emerging economies). The comparison takes by reference a set of various indicators that directly or indirectly affect innovation in a positive or negative way. Firstly, a research to obtain the values of each of the indicators was conducted, considering the main primary sources, then, within a set of radial charts is presented the resulting values of each nation and a comparison between them. Finally, a description of the gaps between Mexico and the BRICS were established, including the areas of opportunity for Mexico

Keywords: innovation, triple helix, comparison, Mexico and BRICS

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: J. S. Savier

Abstract:

Real power is the component power which is converted into useful energy whereas reactive power is the component of power which cannot be converted to useful energy but it is required for the magnetization of various electrical machineries. If the reactive power is compensated at the consumer end, the need for reactive power flow from generators to the load can be avoided and hence the overall power loss can be reduced. In this scenario, this paper presents a succinct method called JSS method for allocation of reactive power losses to consumers connected to radial distribution networks in a deregulated environment. The proposed method has the advantage that no assumptions are made while deriving the reactive power loss allocation method.

Keywords: deregulation, reactive power loss allocation, radial distribution systems, succinct method

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Itissam Abuiziah

Abstract:

This work presents a case study of water-hammer analysis and control for the Oum Azza pumping station project in the coastal area of Rabat to Casablanca from the dam Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah (SMBA). This is a typical pumping system with a long penstock and is currently at design and executions stages. Since there is no ideal location for construction of protection devices, the protection devices were provisionally designed to protect the whole conveying pipeline. The simulation results for the transient conditions caused by a sudden pumping stopping without including any protection devices, show that there is a negative beyond 1300m to the station 5725m near the arrival of the reservoir, therefore; there is a need for the protection devices to protect the conveying pipeline. To achieve the goal behind the transient flow analysis which is to protect the conveying pipeline system, four scenarios had been investigated in this case study with two types of protecting devices (pressure relief valve and desurging tank with automatic air control). The four scenarios are conceders as with pressure relief valve, with pressure relief valve and a desurging tank with automatic air control, with pressure relief valve and tow desurging tanks with automatic air control and with pressure relief valve and three desurging tanks with automatic air control. The simulation result for the first scenario shows that overpressure corresponding to an instant pumping stopping is reduced from 263m to 240m, and the minimum hydraulic grad line for the length approximately from station 1300m to station 5725m is still below the pipeline profile which means that the pipe must be equipped with another a protective devices for smoothing depressions. The simulation results for the second scenario show that the minimum and maximum pressures envelopes are decreases especially in the depression phase but not effectively protects the conduct in this case study. The minimum pressure increased from -77.7m for the previous scenario to -65.9m for the current scenario. Therefore the pipeline is still requiring additional protective devices; another desurging tank with automatic air control is installed at station2575.84m. The simulation results for the third scenario show that the minimum and maximum pressures envelopes are decreases but not effectively protects the conduct in this case study since the depression is still exist and varies from -0.6m to– 12m. Therefore the pipeline is still requiring additional protective devices; another desurging tank with automatic air control is installed at station 5670.32 m. Examination of the envelope curves of the minimum pressuresresults for the fourth scenario, we noticed that the piezometric pressure along the pipe remains positive over the entire length of the pipe. We can, therefore, conclude that such scenario can provide effective protection for the pipeline.

Keywords: analysis methods, protection devices, transient flow, water hammer

Procedia PDF Downloads 157