Search results for: rank estimates

Authors: Mosaad Khadr

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Knowledge of the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall trends has been of great concern for efficient water resource planning, management. In this study annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends over the Sinai Peninsula were analyzed by using absolute homogeneity tests, nonparametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator methods. The homogeneity of rainfall time-series was examined using four absolute homogeneity tests namely, the Pettitt test, standard normal homogeneity test, Buishand range test, and von Neumann ratio test. Further, the sequential change in the trend of annual and seasonal rainfalls is conducted using sequential MK (SQMK) method. Then the trend analysis based on discrete wavelet transform technique (DWT) in conjunction with SQMK method is performed. The spatial patterns of the detected rainfall trends were investigated using a geostatistical and deterministic spatial interpolation technique. The results achieved from the Mann–Kendall test to the data series (using the 5% significance level) highlighted that rainfall was generally decreasing in January, February, March, November, December, wet season, and annual rainfall. A significant decreasing trend in the winter and annual rainfall with significant levels were inferred based on the Mann-Kendall rank statistics and linear trend. Further, the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) analysis reveal that in general, intra- and inter-annual events (up to 4 years) are more influential in affecting the observed trends. The nature of the trend captured by both methods is similar for all of the cases. On the basis of spatial trend analysis, significant rainfall decreases were also noted in the investigated stations. Overall, significant downward trends in winter and annual rainfall over the Sinai Peninsula was observed during the study period.

Keywords: trend analysis, rainfall, Mann–Kendall test, discrete wavelet transform, Sinai Peninsula

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Authors: Olumide J. Adedapo

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In this work, geothermal energy resource maps of the Niger Delta Basin were constructed using borehole thermal log data from over 300 deep wells. Three major geothermal anomalies were delineated and quantitatively interpreted in both onshore and offshore parts of the Niger Delta. The geothermal maps present the distribution of geothermal energy stored in the sedimentary rock mass in two ways: the accessible resources in depth interval 0-4000 m and static geothermal energy resources stored in the complete sedimentary infill of the basin (from the ground surface to the basement). The first map shows two major onshore anomalies, one in the north (with maximum energy values, 800 GJ/m2), another in the east to northeastern part (maximum energy values of 1250–1500 GJ/m2). Another two major anomalies occur offshore, one in the south with values of 750-1000 GJ/m2, occurring at about 100 km seawards and the other, in the southwest offshore with values 750-1250 GJ/m2, still at about 100 km from the shore. A second map of the Niger Delta shows a small anomaly in the northern part with the maximum value of 1500 GJ/m2 and a major anomaly occurring in the eastern part of the basin, onshore, with values of 2000-3500 GJ/m2. Offshore in the south and southwest anomalies in the total sedimentary rock mass occur with highest values up to 4000GJ/m2, with the southwestern anomaly extending west to the shore. It is much of interest to note the seaward–westward extension of these anomalies both in size, configuration, and magnitude for the geothermal energy in the total sedimentary thickness to the underlying basement. These anomalous fields show the most favourable locations and areas for further work on geothermal energy resources.

Keywords: geothermal energy, offshore, Niger delta, basin

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Authors: Ahmad Rabby

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The demographic trend analyses of Bombay-duck from time series catch data using CMSY and BSM for the first time in Bangladesh. During 2000-2018, CMSY indicates average lowest production in 2000 and highest in 2018. This has been used in the estimation of prior biomass by the default rules. Possible 31030 viable trajectories for 3422 r-k pairs were found by the CMSY analysis and the final estimates for intrinsic rate of population increase (r) was 1.19 year-1 with 95% CL= 0.957-1.48 year-1. The carrying capacity(k) of Bombay-duck was 283×103 tons with 95% CL=173×103 - 464×103 tons and MSY was 84.3×103tons year-1, 95% CL=49.1×103-145×103 tons year-1. Results from Bayesian state-space implementation of the Schaefer production model (BSM) using catch & CPUE data, found catchabilitiy coefficient(q) was 1.63 ×10-6 from lcl=1.27×10-6 to ucl=2.10×10-6 and r= 1.06 year-1 with 95% CL= 0.727 - 1.55 year-1, k was 226×103 tons with 95% CL=170×103-301×103 tons and MSY was 60×103 tons year-1 with 95% CL=49.9 ×103- 72.2 ×103 tons year-1. Results for Bombay-duck fishery management based on BSM assessment from time series catch data illustrated that, Fmsy=0.531 with 95% CL =0.364 - 0.775 (if B > 1/2 Bmsy then Fmsy =0.5r); Fmsy=0.531 with 95% CL =0.364-0.775 (r and Fmsy are linearly reduced if B < 1/2Bmsy). Biomass in 2018 was 110×103 tons with 2.5th to 97.5th percentile=82.3-155×103 tons. Relative biomass (B/Bmsy) in last year was 0.972 from 2.5th percentile to 97.5th percentile=0.728 -1.37. Fishing mortality in last year was 0.738 with 2.5th-97.5th percentile=0.525-1.37. Exploitation F/Fmsy was 1.39, from 2.5th to 97.5th percentile it was 0.988 -1.86. The biological reference points of B/BMSY was smaller than 1.0, while F/FMSY was higher than 1.0 revealed an over-exploitation of the fishery, indicating that more conservative management strategies are required for Bombay-duck fishery.

Keywords: biological reference points, catchability coefficient, carrying capacity, intrinsic rate of population increase

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Authors: Masbubul Ishtiaque Ahmed

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Food chain contamination by heavy metals has become a critical issue in recent years because of their potential accumulation in bio systems through contaminated water, soil and irrigation water. Industrial discharge, fertilizers, contaminated irrigation water, fossil fuels, sewage sludge and municipality wastes are the major sources of heavy metal contamination in soils and subsequent uptake by crops. The main objectives of this project were to determine the levels of minerals, trace elements and heavy metals in major foods and beverages consumed by the poor and non-poor households of Dhaka city and assess the dietary risk exposure to heavy metal and trace metal contamination and potential health implications as well as recommendations for action. Heavy metals are naturally occurring elements that have a high atomic weight and a density of at least 5 times greater than that of water. Their multiple industrial, domestic, agricultural, medical and technological applications have led to their wide distribution in the environment; raising concerns over their potential effects on human health and the environment. Their toxicity depends on several factors including the dose, route of exposure, and chemical species, as well as the age, gender, genetics, and nutritional status of exposed individuals. Because of their high degree of toxicity, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, and mercury rank among the priority metals that are of public health significance. These metallic elements are considered systemic toxicants that are known to induce multiple organ damage, even at lower levels of exposure. This review provides an analysis of their environmental occurrence, production and use, potential for human exposure, and molecular mechanisms of toxicity, and carcinogenicity.

Keywords: food chain, determine the levels of minerals, trace elements, heavy metals, production and use, human exposure, toxicity, carcinogenicity

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Authors: Ana Maria Carmen Ilie, Carmela Vaccaro

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Gas migration through wellbore failure, in particular from abandoned wells, is repeatedly identified as the highest risk mechanism. The vadose zone was subject to monitoring system close to the wellbore in Minerbio, methane storage site. The new technology has been well-developed and used with the purpose to provide reliable estimates of leakage parameters. Of these techniques, soil flux sampling at the soil surface, via the accumulation chamber method and soil flux sampling at the depths of 100cm below the ground surface, have been an important technique for characterizing the gas concentrations at the gas storage site. We present results of soil Radon Bq/m3, CO2%, CH4% and O2% concentration gases. Measurements have been taken for radon concentrations with an Durridge RAD7 Company, Inc., USA, instrument. We used for air and soil quality an Biogas ETG instrument monitoring system, with NDIR CO2, CH4 gas sensor and electrochemical O2 gas sensor. The measurements started in September-October 2015, where no outliers have been identified. The measurements have continued in March-April-July-August-September 2016, almost at the same time in the same place around the gas storage site, values measured 15 minutes for each sampling, to determine their concentration, their distribution and to understand the relationship among gases and atmospheric conditions. At a depth of 100 cm, the maximum soil radon gas concentrations were found to be 1770 ±±582 Bq/m3, the soil consists of 64.31% sand, 20.75% silt and 14.94% clay, and with 0.526 ppm of Uranium. The maximum concentration (September 2016), in soil at 100cm below the ground surface, with 83% sand, 8.96% silt and 7.89% clay, was about 0.06% CH4, and in atmosphere 0.06% CH4 at 40°C (T). In the other months the values have been on the range of 0.01% to 0.03% CH4. Since we did not have outliers in the gas storage site, soil-gas samples for isotopic analysis have not been done.

Keywords: leakage gas monitoring, lithology, soil gas, methane

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Authors: Ramandeep Kaur M. Malhi, Prashant K. Srivastava, G.Sandhya Kiran

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Quantitative estimates of foliar biochemicals, namely chlorophyll content (CC), serve as key information for the assessment of plant productivity, stress, and the availability of nutrients. This also plays a critical role in predicting the dynamic response of any vegetation to altering climate conditions. The advent of hyperspectral data with an enhanced number of available wavelengths has increased the possibility of acquiring improved information on CC. Retrieval of CC is extensively carried through well known spectral indices derived from hyperspectral data. In the present study, an attempt is made to develop hyperspectral indices by identifying optimum bands for CC estimation in Butea monosperma (Lam.) Taub growing in forests of Shoolpaneshwar Wildlife Sanctuary, Narmada district, Gujarat State, India. 196 narrow bands of EO-1 Hyperion images were screened, and the best optimum wavelength from blue, green, red, and near infrared (NIR) regions were identified based on the coefficient of determination (R²) between band reflectance and laboratory estimated CC. The identified optimum wavelengths were then employed for developing 12 hyperspectral indices. These spectral index values and CC values were then correlated to investigate the relation between laboratory measured CC and spectral indices. Band 15 of blue range and Band 22 of green range, Band 40 of the red region, and Band 79 of NIR region were found to be optimum bands for estimating CC. The optimum band based combinations on hyperspectral data proved to be the most effective indices for quantifying Butea CC with NDVI and TVI identified as the best (R² > 0.7, p < 0.01). The study demonstrated the significance of band characterization in the development of the best hyperspectral indices for the chlorophyll estimation, which can aid in monitoring the vitality of forests.

Keywords: band, characterization, chlorophyll, hyperspectral, indices

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Authors: Khuram Nawaz Sadozai, Sonia

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The agriculture sector is deemed more vulnerable to climate change as its variation can directly affect the crop’s productivity, but farmers’ adaptation strategies play a vital role in climate change-agriculture relationship. Therefore, this research has been undertaken to assess the Climate Change impact on wheat productivity and farmers’ adaptability strategies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. The panel dataset was analyzed to gauge the impact of changing climate variables (i.e., temperature, rainfall, and humidity) on wheat productivity from 1985 to 2015. Amid the study period, the fixed effect estimates confirmed an inverse relationship of temperature and rainfall on the wheat yield. The impact of temperature is observed to be detrimental as compared to the rainfall, causing 0.07 units reduction in the production of wheat with 1C upsurge in temperature. On the flip side, humidity revealed a positive association with the wheat productivity by confirming that high humidity could be beneficial to the production of the crop over time. Thus, this study ensures significant nexus between agricultural production and climatic parameters. However, the farming community in the underlying study area has limited knowledge about the adaptation strategies to lessen the detrimental impact of changing climate on crop yield. It is recommended that farmers should be well equipped with training and advanced agricultural management practices under the realm of climate change. Moreover, innovative technologies pertinent to the agriculture system should be encouraged to handle the challenges arising due to variations in climate factors.

Keywords: climate change, fixed effect model, panel data, wheat productivity

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Authors: Rowane May A. Fesalbon, Greyland C. Agno, Jodel L. Cuasay, Dindo A. Malonzo, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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The Department of Energy of the Republic of the Philippines estimates that the country’s energy reserves for 2015 are dwindling– observed in the rotating power outages in several localities. To aid in the energy crisis, a national hydropower resource assessment scheme is developed. Hydropower is a resource that is derived from flowing water and difference in elevation. It is a renewable energy resource that is deemed abundant in the Philippines – being an archipelagic country that is rich in bodies of water and water resources. The objectives of this study is to develop a methodology for a national hydropower resource assessment using hydrologic modeling and geospatial techniques in order to generate resource maps for future reference and use of the government and other stakeholders. The methodology developed for this purpose is focused on two models – the implementation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the river discharge and the use of geospatial techniques to analyze the topography and obtain the head, and generate the theoretical hydropower potential sites. The methodology is highly coupled with Geographic Information Systems to maximize the use of geodatabases and the spatial significance of the determined sites. The hydrologic model used in this workflow is SWAT integrated in the GIS software ArcGIS. The head is determined by a developed algorithm that utilizes a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)-derived digital elevation model (DEM) which has a resolution of 10-meters. The initial results of the developed workflow indicate hydropower potential in the river reaches ranging from pico (less than 5 kW) to mini (1-3 MW) theoretical potential.

Keywords: ArcSWAT, renewable energy, hydrologic model, hydropower, GIS

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Authors: Paolo Lenzuni

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Cost-effectiveness of noise abatement treatments at the workplace has not yet received adequate consideration. Furthermore, most of the published work is focused on productivity, despite the poor correlation of this quantity with noise levels. There is currently no tool to estimate the social benefit associated to a specific noise abatement treatment, and no comparison among different options is accordingly possible. In this paper, we present an algorithm which has been developed to predict the cost-effectiveness of any planned noise control treatment in a workplace. This algorithm is based the estimates of hearing threshold shifts included in ISO 1999, and on compensations that workers are entitled to once their work-related hearing impairments have been certified. The benefits of a noise abatement treatment are estimated by means of the lower compensation costs which are paid to the impaired workers. Although such benefits have no real meaning in strictly monetary terms, they allow a reliable comparison between different treatments, since actual social costs can be assumed to be proportional to compensation costs. The existing European legislation on occupational exposure to noise it mandates that the noise exposure level be reduced below the upper action limit (85 dBA). There is accordingly little or no motivation for employers to sustain the extra costs required to lower the noise exposure below the lower action limit (80 dBA). In order to make this goal more appealing for employers, the algorithm proposed in this work also includes an ad-hoc element that promotes actions which bring the noise exposure down below 80 dBA. The algorithm has a twofold potential: 1) it can be used as a quality index to promote cost-effective practices; 2) it can be added to the existing criteria used by workers’ compensation authorities to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of technical actions, and support dedicated employers.

Keywords: cost-effectiveness, noise, occupational exposure, treatment

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Authors: Hameed Alsamadany, Nader Aryamanesh, Guijun Yan

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Heat is one of the major abiotic stresses limiting wheat production worldwide. To identify heat tolerant genotypes, a newly designed system involving a large plastic box holding many layers of filter papers positioned vertically with wheat seeds sown in between for the ease of screening large number of wheat geno types was developed and used to study heat tolerance. A collection of 499 wheat geno types were screened under heat stress (35ºC) and non-stress (25ºC) conditions using the new method. Compared with those under non-stress conditions, a substantial and very significant reduction in seedling length (SL) under heat stress was observed with an average reduction of 11.7 cm (P<0.01). A damage index (DI) of each geno type based on SL under the two temperatures was calculated and used to rank the genotypes. Three hexaploid geno types of Triticum aestivum [Perenjori (DI= -0.09), Pakistan W 20B (-0.18) and SST16 (-0.28)], all growing better at 35ºC than at 25ºC were identified as extremely heat tolerant (EHT). Two hexaploid genotypes of T. aestivum [Synthetic wheat (0.93) and Stiletto (0.92)] and two tetraploid genotypes of T. turgidum ssp dicoccoides [G3211 (0.98) and G3100 (0.93)] were identified as extremely heat susceptible (EHS). Another 14 geno types were classified as heat tolerant (HT) and 478 as heat susceptible (HS). Extremely heat tolerant and heat susceptible geno types were used to develop re combinant inbreeding line populations for genetic studies. Four major QTLs, HTI4D, HTI3B.1, HTI3B.2 and HTI3A located on wheat chromosomes 4D, 3B (x2) and 3A, explaining up to 34.67 %, 28.93 %, 13.46% % and 11.34% phenotypic variation, respectively, were detected. The four QTLs together accounted for 88.40% of the total phenotypic variation. Random wheat geno types possessing the four heat tolerant alleles performed significantly better under the heat condition than those lacking the heat tolerant alleles indicating the importance of the four QTLs in conferring heat tolerance in wheat. Molecular markers are being developed for marker assisted breeding of heat tolerant wheat.

Keywords: bread wheat, heat tolerance, screening, RILs, QTL mapping, association analysis

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Authors: Adawati Suhaili, Kamisah Osman, Mohd Effendi, Ewan Mohd Matore

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The global education reform has prompted Malaysia to transform the education system in Malaysia through the Malaysian Education Blueprint (MEB) 2013-2025. This transformation is aimed to achieve the top one-third rank in international assessment. The low achievement of student scientific literacy in TIMMS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study ) and PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) has caused concern to the Ministry Of Education (MOE) despite various reform efforts. Therefore, an alternative action by enhancing the role of the Head of Science Panels (HoSPs) as a key change agent in catalyzing the improvement of student performance should be considered. Highlights of previous studies have shown that subject leadership is able to enhance teacher teaching quality in order to increase student learning. To lead the Science department and guide Science teachers more effectively, HoSPs need to strengthen their leadership skills. However, the issue of weaknesses in the leadership competencies of HoSPs in Malaysia has caused them to lack confidence and ability in leading the Science Department. The main objective of this study is to explore the factors that contribute to the problems faced by HoSPs at Sarawak in their leadership roles. This study used a qualitative design framework and using a semi-structured interview method for data collection. There were six informants involved in the interview consisting of lecturers, Senior Administrative Assistant Teacher and HoSPs. The findings of the study had been identified four main factors that contribute to problems in the leadership competencies of HoSPs in Sarawak, namely leadership practices, leadership structure, academic subjects and school change. The results are significant to the MOE in strengthening the leadership competencies of HoSPs in a more focus for improving the achievement of scientific literacy of students in Malaysia. This study can help improve the Hosps' leadership competencies in Malaysia.

Keywords: issues, problems, Malaysia education blueprint, leadership competencies, head of science panels

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Authors: Nattapol Pourprasert

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This research is to study qualitative research having two objectives: 1. to study comparison of private sector of government to compare with ASEAN Member States, 2. to study trend of private enterprise administration of ASEAN Member States. The results are: (1) Thai people focus on personal resource administrative system, (2) Indonesia focuses on official system by good administrative principles, (3) Malaysia focuses on technology development to service people, (4) Philippines focuses on operation system development, (5) Singapore focuses on public service development, (6) Brunei Darussalam focuses on equality in government service of people, (7) Vietnam focuses on creating government labor base and develop testing and administration of operation test, (8) Myanmar focuses on human resources development, (9) Laos focuses on form of local administration, (10) Cambodia focuses on policy revolution in personal resources. The result of the second part of the study are: (1) Thailand created government personnel to be power under qualitative official structural event, (2) Indonesia has Bureaucracy Reform Roadmap of Bureaucracy Reform and National Development Plan Medium Term, (3) Malaysia has database for people service, (4) Philippines follows up control of units operation by government policy, (5) Singapore created reliability, participation of people to set government policy people’s demand, (6) Brunei Darussalam has social welfare to people, (7) Vietnam revolved testing system and administration including manpower base construction of government effectively, (8) Myanmar creates high rank administrators to develop country, (9) Laos distributes power to locality, and (10) Cambodia revolved personnel resource policy.

Keywords: public administration development, ASEAN member states, private sector, government

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Authors: Sarthak Kumar Jena, Chandra Sekhar Mishra, Prabina Rajib

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Purpose: This paper aims to derive undervaluation signal from the insiders trading of Indian companies where the ownership is complex and concentrated, investors protection is weak, and the insider rules and regulations are not stringent like developed country. This study examines the relationship between insider trading with short term and long term abnormal return. The study also examines the relationship between insider trading and the actual share repurchase by the firm. Methodology: A sample of 78 companies over the period 2008-2013 are analyzed in the study due to not availability of insider data in Indian context. For preliminary analysis T-test and Wilcoxon rank sum test is used to find the difference between the insider trading before and after the share repurchase announcement. Tobit model is used to find out whether insider trading influence shares repurchase decisions or not. Return on the basis of market model and buy hold are calculated in the previous year and the following year of share repurchase announcement. Findings: The paper finds that insider trading around share repurchase is more than control firms and there is positive and significant difference in insider buying between the previous year of share buyback announcement and the following year of buyback announcement. Insider buying before share repurchase announcement has a positive influence on share repurchase decisions. We find insider buying has a positive and significant relationship with announcement return, whereas insider selling has a negative significant relationship with announcement return. Actual share repurchase and program completion also depend on insider trading before share repurchase. Research limitation: The study is constrained by the small sample size, so the results should be viewed by keeping this limitation in mind. Originality: The paper is to our best knowledge the first study based on Indian context to extend the insider trading literature to share repurchase event and examine insider trading to find out undervaluation signal associated with insider buying.

Keywords: insider trading, buyback, open market share repurchase, signalling

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Authors: Hayriye Anıl, Görkem Kar

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In addition to being rich in renewable energy resources, Turkey is one of the countries that promise potential in geothermal energy production with its high installed power, cheapness, and sustainability. Increasing imbalance penalties become an economic burden for organizations since geothermal generation plants cannot maintain the balance of supply and demand due to the inadequacy of the production forecasts given in the day-ahead market. A better production forecast reduces the imbalance penalties of market participants and provides a better imbalance in the day ahead market. In this study, using machine learning, deep learning, and, time series methods, the total generation of the power plants belonging to Zorlu Natural Electricity Generation, which has a high installed capacity in terms of geothermal, was estimated for the first one and two weeks of March, then the imbalance penalties were calculated with these estimates and compared with the real values. These modeling operations were carried out on two datasets, the basic dataset and the dataset created by extracting new features from this dataset with the feature engineering method. According to the results, Support Vector Regression from traditional machine learning models outperformed other models and exhibited the best performance. In addition, the estimation results in the feature engineering dataset showed lower error rates than the basic dataset. It has been concluded that the estimated imbalance penalty calculated for the selected organization is lower than the actual imbalance penalty, optimum and profitable accounts.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, time series models, feature engineering, geothermal energy production forecasting

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Authors: Tan Swee Liang

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This paper estimates bank and stock market efficiency associations with real per capita GDP growth by examining panel-data across three different regions using Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) regression developed by Beck and Katz (1995). Data from five economies in ASEAN (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia), five economies in Asia (Japan, China, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea, and India) and seven economies in OECD (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom U.K., and United States U.S.), between 1990 and 2017 are used. Empirical findings suggest one, for Asia-5 high bank net interest margin means greater bank profitability, hence spurring economic growth. Two, for OECD-7 low bank overhead costs (as a share of total assets) may reflect weak competition and weak investment in providing superior banking services, hence dampening economic growth. Three, stock market turnover ratio has negative association with OECD-7 economic growth, but a positive association with Asia-5, which suggest the relationship between liquidity and growth is ambiguous. Lastly, for ASEAN-5 high bank overhead costs (as a share of total assets) may suggest expenses have not been channelled efficiently to income generating activities. One practical implication of the findings is that policy makers should take necessary measures toward financial liberalisation policies that boost growth through the efficiency channel, so that funds are efficiently allocated through the financial system between financial and real sectors.

Keywords: financial development, banking system, capital markets, economic growth

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Authors: Kathryn L. Duncan, Charles A. Kuntz, Alessandra C. Santamaria, James O. Simcock

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Access to megavoltage radiation therapy for small animals is limited in many locations around the world. This can preclude the use of palliative radiation therapy for the treatment of appendicular osteosarcoma in dogs. The objective of this study was to retrospectively assess the adverse effects and survival times of dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma that were treated with hypofractionated orthovoltage radiation therapy and adjunctive carboplatin chemotherapy administered via a single subcutaneous infusion. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively to identify client-owned dogs with spontaneously occurring appendicular osteosarcoma that was treated with palliative orthovoltage radiation therapy and a single subcutaneous infusion of carboplatin. Data recorded included signalment, tumour location, results of diagnostic imaging, haematologic and serum biochemical analyses, adverse effects of radiation therapy and chemotherapy, and survival times. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed, and log-rank analysis was used to determine the impact of specific patient variables on survival time. Twenty-three dogs were identified that met the inclusion criteria. Median survival time for dogs was 182 days. Eleven dogs had adverse haematologic effects, 3 had adverse gastrointestinal effects, 6 had adverse effects at the radiation site and 7 developed infections at the carboplatin infusion site. No statistically significant differences were identified in survival times based on sex, tumour location, development of infection, or pretreatment serum alkaline phosphatase. Median survival time and incidence of adverse effects were comparable to those previously reported in dogs undergoing palliative radiation therapy with megavoltage or cobalt radiation sources and conventional intravenous carboplatin chemotherapy. The use of orthovoltage palliative radiation therapy may be a reasonable alternative to megavoltage radiation in locations where access is limited.

Keywords: radiotherapy, veterinary oncology, chemotherapy, osteosarcoma

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Authors: Madelaine F. Gatchalian, Mary Jane D. Tepora

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This study was designed to determine the relationship between learning environment and motivation of CNHS, SY 2012-2013. There were 376 respondents taken randomly. Frequency distribution, percentage, mean, standard deviation, Mann Whitney Test, Kruskall Wallis One-way ANOVA and Spearman Rank Correlational Coefficient were used in analyzing the data. As to age, most of the respondents were 13 years old while female students outnumbered the male students. Majority of parents’ educational attainment of CNHS students were high school/vocational graduates. Most fathers worked in the private sector, while majority of the mothers were unemployed whose family income range from Php 5,000.00 to Php 14,999.00. Most of the respondents were first child composed of five family members. Findings showed no significant differences in perceived learning environment when respondents were grouped in terms of age, sex, parents’ educational attainment, parents’ occupation, sibling order and number of family members. Only monthly family income showed significant differences in perceived learning environment. There are no significant differences in perceived learning motivation when respondents were grouped in terms of age, sex, parents’ educational attainment (father), parents’ occupation (father), sibling order, and number of family members. Parents’ educational attainment (mother), parents’ occupation (mother) and monthly family income showed significant differences in perceived learning motivation. There is significant relationship between the six subscales of perceived learning environment, namely: student cohesiveness, teacher support, involvement, task orientation, cooperation and equity and perceived learning motivation of CNHS students, SY, 2012-2013. The results of this study indicated that learning environment including student cohesiveness, teachers support, involvement, task orientation, cooperation and equity is significantly related to students’ learning motivation.

Keywords: learning environment, motivation, demographic profile, secondary students

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Authors: Ogbonnaya Elom, Francis N. Azunku, Ogochukwu Onah

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This study was carried out to determine the correlates of cost effectiveness analysis of rating scale and psycho-productive multiple choice test for assessing students’ performance in rice production. Four research questions were developed and answered, while one hypothesis was formulated and tested. Survey and correlation designs were adopted. The population of the study was 20,783 made up of 20,511 senior secondary (SSII) students and 272 teachers of agricultural science from 221 public secondary schools. Two schools with one intact class of 30 students each was purposely selected as sample based on certain criteria. Four sets of instruments were used for data collection. One of the instruments-the rating scale, was subjected to face and content validation while the other three were subjected to face validation only. Cronbach alpha technique was utilized to determine the internal consistency of the rating scale items which yielded a coefficient of 0.82 while the Kudder-Richardson (K-R 20) formula was involved in determining the stability of the psycho-productive multiple choice test items which yielded a coefficient of 0.80. Method of data collection involved a step-by-step approach in collecting data. Data collected were analyzed using percentage, weighted mean and sign test to answer the research questions while the hypothesis was tested using Spearman rank-order of correlation and t-test statistic. Findings of the study revealed among others, that psycho-productive multiple choice test is more effective than rating scale when the former is applied on the two groups of students. It was recommended among others, that the external examination bodies should integrate the use of psycho- productive multiple choice test into their examination policy and direct secondary schools to comply with it.

Keywords: correlates, cost-effectiveness, psycho-productive multiple-choice scale, rating scale

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Authors: Theresa Ukamaka Nwagha, Angela Ogechukwu Ugwu, Martins Nweke

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Background and Objectives: Blood transfusion is an effective and proven treatment for some severe complications of sickle cell disease. Recurrent transfusions have put patients with sickle cell disease at risk of developing antibodies against the various antigens they were exposed to. This study aims to investigate the frequency of red blood cell alloimmunization in patients with sickle disease in Africa. Materials and Methods: This is a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature published in English. The review was conducted consistent with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses checklist. Data sources for the review include MEDLINE, PubMed, CINAHL, and Academic Search Complete. Included in this review are articles that reported the frequency/prevalence of red blood cell alloimmunization in sickle cell disease patients in Africa. Eligible studies were subjected to independent full-text screening and data extraction. Risk of bias assessment was conducted with the aid of the mixed method appraisal tool. We employed a random-effects model of meta-analysis to estimate the pooled prevalence. We computed Cochrane’s Q statistics and I2 and prediction interval to quantify heterogeneity in effect size. Results: The prevalence estimates range from 2.6% to 29%. Pooled prevalence was estimated to be 10.4% (CI 7.7.–13.8); PI = 3.0 – 34.0%), with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 84.62; PI = 2.0-32.0%) and publication bias (Egger’s t-test = 1.744, p = 0.0965). Conclusion: The frequency of red cell alloantibody varies considerably in Africa. The alloantibodies appeared frequent in this order: the Rhesus, Kell, Lewis, Duffy, MNS, and Lutheran

Keywords: frequency, red blood cell, alloimmunization, sickle cell disease, Africa

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Authors: Amine M. Benmehaia, Amine Oulmane

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The supply response of agricultural commodities to changes in price incentives is an important issue for the success of any policy reform in the agricultural sector. This study aims to quantify the responsiveness of producers of some livestock commodities to price incentives in Algerian context. Time series analysis is used on annual data for a period of 52 years (1966-2018). Both co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) are used through the Nerlove model of partial adjustment. The study attempts to determine the long-run and short-run relationships along with the magnitudes of disequilibria in the selected commodities. Results show that the short-run price elasticities are low in cow and sheep meat sectors (8.7 and 8% respectively), while their respective long-run elasticities are 16.5 and 10.5, whereas eggs and milk have very high short-run price elasticities (82 and 90% respectively) with long-run elasticities of 40 and 46 respectively. The error correction coefficient, reflecting the speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium, is statistically significant and have the expected negative sign. Its estimates are 12.7 for cow meat, 33.5 for sheep meat, 46.7 for eggs and 8.4 for milk. It seems that cow meat and milk producers have a weak feedback of about 12.7% and 8.4% respectively of the previous year's disequilibrium from the long-run price elasticity, whereas sheep meat and eggs producers adjust to correct long run disequilibrium with a high speed of adjustment (33.5% and 46.7 % respectively). The implication of this is that much more in-depth research is needed to identify those factors that affect agricultural supply and to describe the effect of factors that shift supply in response to price incentives. This could provide valuable information for government in the use of appropriate policy measures.

Keywords: Algeria, cointegration, livestock, supply response, vector error correction model

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Authors: Iris Sauerbrei, Jörg Trojan, Erich Lehner

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Introduction and significance of the study: This study examines if three-dimensional shapes elicit distinct patterns of perceptions. If so, it is relevant for all fields of design, especially for the design of the built environment. Description of basic methodologies: The five platonic solids are the geometrical base for all other three-dimensional shapes, among which tetrahedron and icosahedron provide the clearest representation of the qualities sharp and round. The component pair of attributes ‘sharp versus round’ has already been examined in various surveys in a psychology of perception and in neuroscience by means of graphics, images of products of daily use, as well as by photographs and walk-through-videos of landscapes and architecture. To verify a transfer of outcomes of the existing surveys to the perception of three-dimensional shapes, walk-in models (total height 2.2m) of tetrahedron and icosahedron were set up in a public park in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Preferences of park visitors were tested by questionnaire; also they were asked to write down associations in a free text. In summer 2015, the tetrahedron was assembled eight times, the icosahedron seven times. In total 288 participants took part in the study; 116 rated the tetrahedron, 172 rated the icosahedron. Findings: Preliminary analyses of the collected data using Wilcoxon Rank-Sum tests show that the perceptions of the two solids differ in respect to several attributes and that each of the tested model show significance for specific attributes. Conclusion: These findings confirm the assumptions and provide first evidence that the perception of three-dimensional shapes are associated to characteristic attributes and to which. In order to enable conscious choices for spatial arrangements in design processes for the built environment, future studies should examine attributes for the other three basic bodies - Octahedron, Cube, and Dodecahedron. Additionally, similarities and differences between the perceptions of two- and three-dimensional shapes as well as shapes that are more complex need further research.

Keywords: 3D shapes, architecture, geometrical features, space perception, walk-in models

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Authors: Ruchi Garg

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Background: Dr. Rajendra Prasad Centre for Ophthalmic Sciences, named after the first President of India, was established on the 10th of March, 1967 as a National Center for ophthalmic science to provide state-of-the-art patient care, expand human resources for medical education and undertake research to find solutions to eye health problems of national importance. The average number of cataract surgeries performed per month is 700 to 1000. Methods: Anticipating implementation in 50% cases hundred cases of cataract surgery were observed to study the existing system of surgical safety followed at Dr. R.P. Center and gap analysis done against the WHO surgical safety checklist for cataract surgery. A modified WHO surgical safety checklist for cataract surgery was developed and implemented in the center. Barriers in the implementation of the surgical safety checklist were also identified, and remedial measures were suggested. Results: Significant improvement was noticed in all the parameters after the introduction of the modified checklist. The additional points which were added in the modified surgical safety checklist were implemented in almost all the cases by the nursing staff. The overall mean compliance percentage before the implementation of the modified surgical safety checklist at Dr. R.P.C was 37%±10.1 (P=0.001). While after the introduction of the modified surgical safety checklist, the mean compliance has improved to 62.7%±10.3; the Wilcoxon rank sum test/Independent test is applied for each domain. Conclusions: The cataract procedure is the most common surgical procedure performed in the population in India. High volume and high turnover increase the potential for errors. Compliance with the surgical safety checklist before intervention was 32%. After intervention in the form of a focus group discussion and introduction of a modified surgical safety checklist has resulted in an increase in the compliance rate to 67%, this study revealed that changes or additional work are not happily accepted by the staff. After six months of intervention with the modified surgical safety checklist compliance rate was still high, this suggests that constant supervision and monitoring by senior staff can sustain the compliance rate.

Keywords: patient safety, hospital safety, quality, WHO surgical safety checklist

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Authors: Rocio Herrero Romero, Lucie Cluver, James Hall, Janina Steinert

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Educational delay and non-completion are major policy concerns in South Africa. However, little research has focused on predictors for educational delay amongst adolescents in disadvantaged areas. This study has two aims: first, to use data integration approaches to compare the educational delay of 599 adolescents aged 16 to 18 from disadvantaged communities to national and provincial representative estimates in South Africa. Second, the paper also explores predictors for educational delay by comparing adolescents out of school (n=64) and at least one year behind (n=380), with adolescents in the age-appropriate grade or higher (n=155). Multinomial logistic regression models using self-report and administrative data were applied to look for significant associations of risk and protective factors. Significant risk factors for being behind (rather than in age-appropriate grade) were: male gender, past grade repetition, rural location and larger school size. Risk factors for being out of school (rather than in the age-appropriate grade) were: past grade repetition, having experienced problems concentrating at school, household poverty, and food insecurity. Significant protective factors for being in the age-appropriate grade (rather than out of school) were: living with biological parents or grandparents and access to school counselling. Attending school in wealthier communities was a significant protective factor for being in the age-appropriate grade (rather than behind). Our results suggest that both personal and contextual factors –family and school- predicted educational delay. This study provides new evidence to the significant effects of personal, family, and school characteristics on the educational outcomes of adolescents from disadvantaged communities in South Africa. This is the first longitudinal and quantitative study to systematically investigate risk and protective factors for post-compulsory educational outcomes amongst South African adolescents living in disadvantaged communities.

Keywords: disadvantaged communities, quantitative analysis, school delay, South Africa

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Authors: Simin Shahvazi, Sepideh Soltani, Seyed Mehdi Ahmadi, Russell J. De Souza, Amin Salehi-Abargouei

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Background and Objectives: Vitamin D has received attention for its potential to disrupt cancer processes such as attenuating cell proliferation and exacerbating differentiation and apoptosis. However, whether there exists a role for vitamin D in the treatment of prostate cancer specifically remains controversial. We systematically review the literature to assess whether supplementation with vitamin D influences PSA response and overall survival in patients with prostate cancer. Methods: We searched PubMed, Scopus, ISI Web of Science and Google scholar from inception through up to 10 September 2017 for both before-and-after and randomized trials that evaluated the effect of vitamin D supplementation on the prostate specific antigen (PSA) response rate in participants with prostate cancer. The DerSimonian and Laird, inverse-weighted random-effects model was used to pool effect estimates from the studies. Heterogeneity and potential publication bias were evaluated. Subgroup analyses were also performed. Results: Twenty-two studies (16 before-after and 6 randomized controlled trials) were found and included in meta-analysis. The analysis on controlled clinical trials revealed that PSA change from baseline [weighted mean difference (WMD) = -1.66 ng/ml, 95%CI: -0.69, 0.36, P= 0.543)], PSA response (RR=1.18, 95%CI: 0.97, 1.45, P=0.104) and mortality rate (risk ratio (RR) = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.81-1.36; P=0.713) was not significantly different between vitamin D supplementation and placebo groups. Single arm trials revealed that vitamin D supplementation had had a modest effect on PSA response rate: 19% of those enrolled had at least a 50% reduction in PSA by the end of treatment (95% CI: 7% to 31%; p=0.002). Conclusion: We found that vitamin D modestly increases the PSA response rate in single arm studies. No effect on serum PSA levels, PSA response and mortality was seen in randomized controlled clinical trials. It does not seem patients with prostate cancer benefit from vitamin D supplementation.

Keywords: mortality, prostatic neoplasms, PSA response, vitamin D

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Authors: C. S. Subhashini, H. L. Premaratne

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Landslides are the most recurrent and prominent disaster in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has been subjected to a number of extreme landslide disasters that resulted in a significant loss of life, material damage, and distress. It is required to explore a solution towards preparedness and mitigation to reduce recurrent losses associated with landslides. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Hidden Markov Model (HMMs) are now widely used in many computer applications spanning multiple domains. This research examines the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model in landslides predictions and the possibility of applying the modern technology to predict landslides in a prominent geographical area in Sri Lanka. A thorough survey was conducted with the participation of resource persons from several national universities in Sri Lanka to identify and rank the influencing factors for landslides. A landslide database was created using existing topographic; soil, drainage, land cover maps and historical data. The landslide related factors which include external factors (Rainfall and Number of Previous Occurrences) and internal factors (Soil Material, Geology, Land Use, Curvature, Soil Texture, Slope, Aspect, Soil Drainage, and Soil Effective Thickness) are extracted from the landslide database. These factors are used to recognize the possibility to occur landslides by using an ANN and HMM. The model acquires the relationship between the factors of landslide and its hazard index during the training session. These models with landslide related factors as the inputs will be trained to predict three classes namely, ‘landslide occurs’, ‘landslide does not occur’ and ‘landslide likely to occur’. Once trained, the models will be able to predict the most likely class for the prevailing data. Finally compared two models with regards to prediction accuracy, False Acceptance Rates and False Rejection rates and This research indicates that the Artificial Neural Network could be used as a strong decision support system to predict landslides efficiently and effectively than Hidden Markov Model.

Keywords: landslides, influencing factors, neural network model, hidden markov model

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Authors: Rachel Dolan

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Background: Over two thirds of women in prison in England are mothers, and estimates suggest between 100 and 200 women per year give birth during imprisonment. There are currently six mother and baby units (MBUs) in prisons in England which admit women and babies up to the age of 18 months. Although there are only 65 places available, and despite positive impacts, they are rarely full. Mental illness may influence the number of admissions, as may interpretation of admission criteria. They are the only current alternative to separation for imprisoned mothers and their babies. Aims: To identify the factors that affect the decision to apply for/be offered a place in a prison MBU; to measure the impact of a placement upon maternal mental health and wellbeing; To measure the Initial outcomes for mother and child. Methods: A mixed methods approach - 100 pregnant women in English prisons are currently being recruited from prisons in England. Quantitative measures will establish the prevalence of mental disorder, personality disorder, substance misuse and quality of life. Qualitative interviews will document the experiences of pregnancy and motherhood in prison. Results: Preliminary quantitative findings suggest the most prevalent mental disorders are anxiety and depression and approximately half the participants meet the criteria for one or more personality disorders. The majority of participants to date have been offered a place in a prison MBU, and those in a prison with an MBU prior to applying are more likely to be admitted. Those with a previous history of childcare issues, who are known to social services are less likely to be offered a place. Qualitative findings suggest that many women are often hungry and uncomfortable during pregnancy, many have feelings of guilt about having a child in prison and that feelings of anxiety and worry are exacerbated by lack of information.

Keywords: mothers, prison, mother and baby units, mental health

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Authors: Korpapa Srisamai, Pawee Siriruk

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The purpose of this study is to forecast product demands and develop appropriate and adequate procurement plans to meet customer needs and reduce costs. When the product exceeds customer demands or does not move, it requires the company to support insufficient storage spaces. Moreover, some items, when stored for a long period of time, cause deterioration to dead stock. A case study of the wholesale company of electronic equipment and components, which has uncertain customer demands, is considered. The actual purchasing orders of customers are not equal to the forecast provided by the customers. In some cases, customers have higher product demands, resulting in the product being insufficient to meet the customer's needs. However, some customers have lower demands for products than estimates, causing insufficient storage spaces and dead stock. This study aims to reduce the loss of sales opportunities and the number of remaining goods in the warehouse, citing 30 product samples of the company's most popular products. The data were collected during the duration of the study from January to October 2022. The methods used to forecast are simple moving averages, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing methods. The economic ordering quantity and reorder point are used to calculate to meet customer needs and track results. The research results are very beneficial to the company. The company can reduce the loss of sales opportunities by 20% so that the company has enough products to meet customer needs and can reduce unused products by up to 10% dead stock. This enables the company to order products more accurately, increasing profits and storage space.

Keywords: demand forecast, reorder point, lost sale, dead stock

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Abdul Rahman Chamseddine

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Tawfiq al-Hakim remains one of the most prominent playwrights in his native in Egypt, and in the broader Arab world. His works, at the time of their release, drew international attention and acclaim. His first 1933 masterpiece Ahl al-Kahf (The People of the Cave) especially, garnered fame and recognition in both Europe and the Arab world. Borrowing its title from the Qur’anic Sura, al-Hakim’s play relays the untold story of the life of those 'three saints' after they wake up from their prolonged sleep. The playwright’s selection of topics upon which to base his works displays a deep appreciation of Arabic and Islamic heritage. Al-Hakim was clearly influenced by Islam, to such a degree that he wrote the biography of the Prophet Muhammad in 1936 very early in his career. Knowing that Al-Hakim was preceded by many poets and creative writers in writing the Prophet Muhammad’s biography. Notably like Al-Barudi, Ahmad Shawqi, Haykal, Al-‘Aqqad, and Taha Husayn who have had their own ways in expressing their views of the Prophet Muhammad. The attempt to understand the concern of all those renaissance men and others in the person of the Prophet would be indispensable in this study. This project will examine the reasons behind al-Hakim’s choice to draw upon these particular texts, embedded as they are in the context of Arabic and Islamic heritage, and how the use of traditional texts serves his contemporary goals. The project will also analyze the image of Islam in al-Hakim’s imagination. Elsewhere, he envisions letters or conversations between God and himself, which offers a window into understanding the powerful impact of the Divine on Tawfiq al-Hakim, one that informs his literature and merits further scholarly attention. His works occupying a major rank in Arabic literature, does not reveal Al-Hakim solely but the unquestioned assumptions operative in the life of his community, its mental make-up and its attitudes. Furthermore, studying the reception of works that touch on sensitive issues, like writing a letter to God, in Al-Hakim’s historical context would be of a great significance in the process of comprehending the mentality of the Muslim community at that time.

Keywords: Arabic language, Arabic literature, Arabic theology, modern Arabic literature

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Authors: Manal Elgallal, Louise Fletcher, Barbara Evans

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Water scarcity is a growing concern in many arid and semi-arid countries. The increase of water scarcity threatens economic development and sustainability of human livelihoods as well as environment especially in developing countries. Globally, agriculture is the largest water consumption sector, accounting for approximately 70% of all freshwater extraction. Growing competition between the agricultural and higher economic value in urban and industrial uses of high-quality freshwater supplies, especially in regions where water scarcity major problems, will increase the pressure on this precious resource. In this circumstance, wastewater may provide reliable source of water for agriculture and enable freshwater to be exchanged for more economically valuable purposes. Concern regarding the risks from microbial and toxic components to human health and environment quality is a serious obstacle for wastewater reuse particularly in agriculture. Although powerful approaches and tools for microbial risk assessment and management for safe use of wastewater are now available, few studies have attempted to provide any mechanism to quantitatively assess and manage the environmental risks resulting from reusing wastewater. In seeking pragmatic solutions to sustainable wastewater reuse, there remains a lack of research incorporating both health and environmental risk assessment and management with economic analysis in order to quantitatively combine cost, benefits and risks to rank alternative reuse options. This study seeks to enhance effective reuse of wastewater for irrigation in arid and semi-arid areas, the outcome of the study is an evaluation approach that can be used to assess different reuse strategies and to determine the suitable scale at which treatment alternatives and interventions are possible, feasible and cost effective in order to optimise the trade-offs between risks to protect public health and the environment and preserving the substantial benefits.

Keywords: environmental risks, management, life cycle costs, waste water irrigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: El-Said. I. Shabana, Mohammad S. Tayeb, Maher M. T. Qutub, Abdulraheem A. Kinsara

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Usually, phosphate deposits contain ²³⁸U and ²³²Th in addition to their decay products. Due to their different pathways in the environment, the ²³⁸U/²³²Th activity concentration ratio usually found to be greater than unity in phosphate sediments. The presence of these radionuclides creates a potential need to control exposure of workers in the mining and processing activities of the phosphate minerals in accordance with IAEA safety standards. The greatest dose to workers comes from exposure to radon, especially ²²²Rn from the uranium series, and has to be controlled. In this regard, radon (²²²Rn) was measured in the atmosphere (indoor and outdoor) of Al-Jalamid phosphate-mines working area using a portable radon-measurement instrument RAD7, in a purpose of radiation protection. Radon was measured in 61 sites inside the open phosphate mines, the phosphate upgrading facility (offices and rooms of the workers, and in some open-air sites) and in the dwellings of the workers residence-village that lies at about 3 km from the mines working area. The obtained results indicated that the average indoor radon concentration was about 48.4 Bq/m³. Inside the upgrading facility, the average outdoor concentrations were 10.8 and 9.7 Bq/m³ in the concentrate piles and crushing areas, respectively. It was 12.3 Bq/m³ in the atmosphere of the open mines. These values are comparable with the global average values. Based on the average values, the annual effective dose due to radon inhalation was calculated and risk estimates have been done. The average annual effective dose to workers due to the radon inhalation was estimated by 1.32 mSv. The potential excess risk of lung cancer mortality that could be attributed to radon, when considering the lifetime exposure, was estimated by 53.0x10^-4. The results have been discussed in detail.

Keywords: dosimetry, environmental monitoring, phosphate deposits, radiation protection, radon

Procedia PDF Downloads 245