Search results for: Richard Levy

Authors: V. Benedico, C. Anacleto, A. Bearzi, L. Brice, V. Delahaye

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The aim in present paper is to construct an affordable and reliable commodity prices based on a recalculation of its cost through time which allows visualize the potential risks and thus, take more appropriate decisions regarding forecasts. Here attention has been focused on Levy model, more reliable and realistic than classical random Gaussian one as it takes into consideration observed abrupt jumps in case of sudden price variation. In application to Energy Trading sector where it has never been used before, equations corresponding to Levy model have been written for electricity pricing in European market. Parameters have been set in order to predict and simulate the price and its evolution through time to remarkable accuracy. As predicted by Levy model, the results show significant spikes which reach unconventional levels contrary to currently used Brownian model.

Keywords: commodity pricing, Lévy Model, price spikes, electricity market

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Authors: Abootaleb Shirvani, Svetlozar Rachev

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ESG stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance and is a non-financial factor that investors use to specify material risks and growth opportunities in their analysis process. ESG ratings provide a quantitative measure of socially responsible investment, and it is essential to incorporate ESG ratings when modeling the dynamics of asset returns. In this article, we propose a triple subordinated Lévy process for incorporating numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory to model the time series properties of the stock returns. The motivation for introducing three layers of subordinator is twofold. The first two layers of subordinator capture the skew and fat-tailed properties of the stock return distribution that cannot be explained well by the existing Lévy subordinated model. The third layer of the subordinator introduces ESG valuation and incorporates numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory and option pricing. We employ the triple subordinator Lévy model for developing the ESG-valued stock return model, derive the implied ESG score surfaces for Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon stock returns, and compare the shape of the ESG implied surface scores for these stocks.

Keywords: ESG scores, dynamic asset pricing theory, multiple subordinated modeling, Lévy processes, option pricing

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu

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Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic

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Authors: Petr Gurný

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One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the credit-scoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: credit-scoring models, multidimensional subordinated Lévy model, probability of default

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Levy flight, distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence

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Authors: Korosh Khorshidi, Mohammad Khodadadi

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In this paper, exact close form solution for out of plate free flexural vibration of moderately thick rectangular nanoplates are presented based on nonlocal modified trigonometric shear deformation theory, with assumptions of the Levy's type boundary conditions, for the first time. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of small-scale parameters on the frequency parameters of the moderately thick rectangular nano-plates. To describe the effects of small-scale parameters on vibrations of rectangular nanoplates, the Eringen theory is used. The Levy's type boundary conditions are combination of six different boundary conditions; specifically, two opposite edges are simply supported and any of the other two edges can be simply supported, clamped or free. Governing equations of motion and boundary conditions of the plate are derived by using the Hamilton’s principle. The present analytical solution can be obtained with any required accuracy and can be used as benchmark. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method compared to other methods reported in the literature. Finally, the effect of boundary conditions, aspect ratios, small scale parameter and thickness ratios on nondimensional natural frequency parameters and frequency ratios are examined and discussed in detail.

Keywords: exact solution, nonlocal modified sinusoidal shear deformation theory, out of plane vibration, moderately thick rectangular plate

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Authors: Nelya Babynets

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Shakespeare and Mexican theatregoers have enjoyed quite a complex relationship. Shakespearean plays have appeared on the Mexican stage with remarkable perseverance, yet with mixed success. Although Shakespeare has long been a part of the global cultural marketplace and his works are celebrated all around the world, the adaptation of his plays on the contemporary Mexican stage is always an adventure, since the works of this early modern author are frequently seen as the legacy of a ‘high’, but obsolete, culture, one that is quite distant from the present-day viewers’ daily experiences and concerns. Moreover, Mexican productions of Shakespeare are presented mostly in Peninsular Spanish, a language similar yet alien to the language spoken in Mexico, one that does not wholly fit into the viewers’ cultural praxis. This is the reason why Mexican dramatic adaptations of Shakespearean plays tend to replace the cultural references of the original piece with ones that are more significant and innate to Latin American spectators. This paper analyses the new Mexican production of Richard III adapted and directed by Mauricio Garcia Lozano, which employs onstage violence - a cultural force that is inherent to all human beings regardless of their beliefs, ethnic background or nationality - as the means to make this play more relevant to a present-day audience. Thus, this paper addresses how the bloody bombast of staged murders helps to avoid the tyranny of a rigid framework of fixed meanings that denies the possibility of an intercultural appropriation of this European play written over four hundred years ago. The impact of violence displayed in Garcia Lozano’s adaptation of Richard III on Mexican audiences will also be examined. This study is particularly relevant in Mexico where the term ‘tragedy’ has become a commonplace and where drug wars and state-sanctioned violence have already taken the lives of many people.

Keywords: audience, dramatic adaptation, Shakespeare, viewer

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Authors: Nodi Islam

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This paper critically reads Richard Powers’ novel The Echo Maker to read and understand the personal traumas of the characters in the novel depending on the various situations they face throughout the story. Also, the paper attempts to read different traumas and disorders due to their different situations. With a focus on the individual experiences, this paper addresses the core issues of trauma, which triggers their reactions and reads the novel through theories of Freud, Caruth, and other critics in this field. While transcending the boundary of personal and collective trauma, this paper suggests that traumas not only arise from the core mental issues, from both past or present memories; it also depends on places too which can be called, according to Yi-Fu Tuan, topophobia. Intimate places such as home provoke not only attachment and expectation but also produce fear in a person. Failure in identifying with such places means losing a central piece of identity of the individual. In order to analyse the traumas in the novel, the characters’ association with homes and places has been provided. This paper attempts to suggest that people are not traumatised because of what Freud explained as unpleasant memories of the past but also intimacy and lost identities related to a place can trigger trauma.

Keywords: spatial trauma, traumatic stress disorder, identity and place, core mental issues

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Authors: Paul Bayron, Richard Kelso, Rey Chin

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Wind tunnel experiments were performed in the KC closed-circuit wind tunnel in the University of Adelaide to study the influence of tip-speed-ratio (

Keywords: hotwire anemometry, wake dynamics, wind tunnel, wind turbines

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Authors: Richard G. Carranza, Juan Ospina

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The fin efficiency for a helical fin with a fixed fin tip (or arbitrary) temperature boundary condition is presented. Firstly, the temperature profile throughout the fin is determined via an energy balance around the fin itself. Secondly, the fin efficiency is formulated by integrating across the entire surface of the helical fin. An analytical expression for the fin efficiency is presented and compared with the literature for accuracy.

Keywords: efficiency, fin, heat, helical, transfer

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Authors: Fujio Takata

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When governments levy taxes on labor income on the basis of a balanced budget rule, two steady states in an economy exist, of which one can cause two movement patterns, namely, indeterminacy paths and a saddle path. However, in this paper, we assume an economy with divisible labor, in which labor adjustment is made by an intensive margin. We demonstrate that there indeed exist the two paths in the economy and that there exists a critical condition dividing them. This is proved by establishing the relationship between a finite elasticity of labor with regard to real wages and the share of capital in output. Consequently, we deduce the existence of an upper limit in the share of capital in output for indeterminacy to occur. The largest possible value of that share is less than 0.5698.

Keywords: balanced budget rule, divisible labor, labor income taxation, two movement patterns

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Authors: Richard Levy, Peter Dawson

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Ft. Conger, located in the Canadian Arctic was one of the most remote 19th-century scientific stations. Established in 1881 on Ellesmere Island, a wood framed structure established a permanent base from which to conduct scientific research. Under the charge of Lt. Greely, Ft. Conger was one of 14 expeditions conducted during the First International Polar Year (FIPY). Our research project “From Science to Survival: Using Virtual Exhibits to Communicate the Significance of Polar Heritage Sites in the Canadian Arctic” focused on the creation of a virtual museum website dedicated to one of the most important polar heritage site in the Canadian Arctic. This website was developed under a grant from Virtual Museum of Canada and enables visitors to explore the fort’s site from 1875 to the present, http://fortconger.org. Heritage sites are often viewed as static places. A goal of this project was to present the change that occurred over time as each new group of explorers adapted the site to their needs. The site was first visited by British explorer George Nares in 1875 – 76. Only later did the United States government select this site for the Lady Franklin Bay Expedition (1881-84) with research to be conducted under the FIPY (1882 – 83). Still later Robert Peary and Matthew Henson attempted to reach the North Pole from Ft. Conger in 1899, 1905 and 1908. A central focus of this research is on the virtual reconstruction of the Ft. Conger. In the summer of 2010, a Zoller+Fröhlich Imager 5006i and Minolta Vivid 910 laser scanner were used to scan terrain and artifacts. Once the scanning was completed, the point clouds were registered and edited to form the basis of a virtual reconstruction. A goal of this project has been to allow visitors to step back in time and explore the interior of these buildings with all of its artifacts. Links to text, historic documents, animations, panorama images, computer games and virtual labs provide explanations of how science was conducted during the 19th century. A major feature of this virtual world is the timeline. Visitors to the website can begin to explore the site when George Nares, in his ship the HMS Discovery, appeared in the harbor in 1875. With the emergence of Lt Greely’s expedition in 1881, we can track the progress made in establishing a scientific outpost. Still later in 1901, with Peary’s presence, the site is transformed again, with the huts having been built from materials salvaged from Greely’s main building. Still later in 2010, we can visit the site during its present state of deterioration and learn about the laser scanning technology which was used to document the site. The Science and Survival at Fort Conger project represents one of the first attempts to use virtual worlds to communicate the historical and scientific significance of polar heritage sites where opportunities for first-hand visitor experiences are not possible because of remote location.

Keywords: 3D imaging, multimedia, virtual reality, arctic

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Authors: I. Brandys, M. Levy, K. Harush, Y. Haim, M. Korngold

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Theoretical optimization of a copper-water negative inclination heat pipe with internal composite wick structure has been performed, regarding a new introduced parameter: the ratio between the coarse mesh wraps and the fine mesh wraps of the composite wick. Since in many cases, the design of a heat pipe matches specific thermal requirements and physical limitations, this work demonstrates the optimization of a 1 m length, 8 mm internal diameter heat pipe without an adiabatic section, at a negative inclination angle of -10º. The optimization is based on a new introduced parameter, LR: the ratio between the coarse mesh wraps and the fine mesh wraps.

Keywords: heat pipe, inclination, optimization, ratio

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Authors: David Levy

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The newly released Distributed System Interface 3 (DSI3) Bus Standard specification defines 3 modulation levels from which 16 valid symbols are coded. This structure creates power consumption variations depending on the transmitted data of a factor of more than 2 between minimum and maximum. The power generation unit has to consider therefore the worst case maximum consumption all the time and be built accordingly. This paper proposes a method to reduce both the average current consumption and worst case current consumption. The transmitter randomizes the data using several pseudo-random sequences. It then estimates the energy consumption of the generated frames and selects to transmit the one which consumes the least. The transmitter also prepends the index of the pseudo-random sequence, which is not randomized, to allow the receiver to recover the original data using the correct sequence. We show that in the case that the frame occupies most of the DSI3 synchronization period, we achieve average power consumption reduction by up to 13% and the worst case power consumption is reduced by 17.7%.

Keywords: DSI3, energy, power consumption, randomization

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Authors: Michal Levy

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Despite the emotional impact students' misbehavior and aggression has on teacher's emotional wellbeing, teachers frequently use suppressive strategies in the classroom, which maintain a discordance between felt and expressed emotions. The current study sought to gain a deeper insight into teachers' utilization of discordant emotional labor strategies (i.e., expressive suppression, surface acting and emotional dissonance) and their motives to using these strategies in student aggression. A qualitative study was conducted on 16 special education Jewish Israeli teachers. Thematic analysis of the in-depth semi-structured interviews revealed novice teachers were inclined to use expressive suppression, while experienced teachers used emotional dissonance. The teacher's motives for using discordant emotional labor strategies included both instrumental and hedonic goals. Implications for policymakers and professionals in practice are discussed to improve teachers' emotional wellbeing.

Keywords: discordant strategies, emotional labor, student aggression, teachers

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Authors: Hsiao-ting Lin

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This paper analyzes the history of Taiwan’s secret program to develop its nuclear weapons during the Cold War. In July 1971, US President Richard Nixon shocked the world when he announced that his national security adviser Henry Kissinger had made a secret trip to China and that he himself had accepted an invitation to travel to Beijing. This huge breakthrough in the US-PRC relationship was followed by Taipei’s loss of political legitimacy and international credibility as a result of its UN debacle in the fall that year. Confronted with the Nixon White House’s opening to the PRC, leaders in Taiwan felt being betrayed and abandoned, and they were obliged to take countermeasures for the sake of national interest and regime survival. Taipei’s endeavor to create an effective nuclear program, including the possible development of nuclear weapons capabilities, fully demonstrates the government’s resolution to pursue its own national policy, even if such a policy was guaranteed to undermine its relations with the United States. With hindsight, Taiwan’s attempt to develop its own nuclear weapons did not succeed in sabotaging the warming of US-PRC relations. Worse, it was forced to come to a full stop when, in early 1988, the US government pressured Taipei to close related facilities and programs on the island. However, Taiwan’s abortive attempt to develop its nuclear capability did influence Washington’s and Beijing’s handling of their new relationship. There did develop recognition of a common American and PRC interest in avoiding a nuclearized Taiwan. From this perspective, Beijing’s interests would best be served by allowing the island to remain under loose and relatively benign American influence. As for the top leaders on Taiwan, such a policy choice demonstrated how they perceived the shifting dynamics of international politics in the 1960s and 1970s and how they struggled to break free and pursue their own independent national policy within the rigid framework of the US-Taiwan alliance during the Cold War.

Keywords: taiwan, richard nixon, nuclear program, chiang Kai-shek, chiang ching-kuo

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Authors: Nivaldo Ferreira do Nascimento, Matheus Pereira-Santos, Nycolas Levy-Pereira, José Augusto Senhorini, George Shigueki Yasui, Laura Satiko Okada Nakaghi

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Tetraploid individuals, which could produce diploid gametes, can be used for production of 100% triploid fish. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a tetraploidization protocol for A. altiparanae. We tested the effect of heat shock (40 °C; 2 min) at 16, 18, 20, 22, 24 and 26 minutes post fertilization (mpf). Untreated eggs were used as control. After hatching, ploidy status of the larvae was checked by flow cytometry. No difference were observed for the hatching rate between all treatments (P = 0.5974). However, we observed an increase in the larval abnormality in the heat shock treatments, in special at 22 (82.17 ± 6.66%) 24 (78.31 ±7.28%) and 26 mpf (79.01 ± 7.85%) in comparison with the control group (12.87 ± 4.46%). No tetraploid was observed at 16 and 18 mpf. The higher number of tetraploid individuals (52/55) was observed at 26 mpf. Our results showed that high percentages of tetraploids are obtained by heat shock (40°C; 2min) at 26 mpf, which could enable the mass production of triploid individuals in A. altiparanae.

Keywords: chromosome manipulation, polyploidy, flow cytometry, tetraploidization

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Authors: Luz del Carmen Rubí Félix Peña, Jose Adan Felix-Ortiz, Ely Sara Lopez-Alvarez, Wenceslao Valenzuela-Quiñonez

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On a global scale, Mexico is the sixth largest producer of farmed white shrimp (Penaeus vannamei). The activity suffered significant economic losses due to acute hepatopancreatic necrosis (AHPND) caused by a strain of Vibrio parahaemolyticus. For control, the first option is the application of antibiotics in food, causing changes in the environment and bacterial communities, which has produced greater virulence and resistance of pathogenic bacteria. An alternative treatment is silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) generated by green synthesis, which have shown an antibacterial capacity by destroying the cell membrane or denaturing the cell. However, the doses at which these are effective are still unknown. The aim is to calculate the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) using the Gompertz, Richard, and Logistic model of biosynthesized AgNPs against a strain of V. parahaemolyticus. Through the testing of different formulations of AgNPs synthesized from Euphorbia prostrate (Ep) extracts against V. parahaemolyticus causing AHPND in white shrimp. Aqueous and ethanol extracts were obtained, and the concentration of phenols and flavonoids was quantified. In the antibiograms, AgNPs were formulated in ethanol extracts of Ep (20 and 30%). The inhibition halo at well dilution test were 18±1.7 and 17.67±2.1 mm against V. parahaemolyticus. A broth microdilution was performed with the inhibitory agents (aqueous and ethanolic extracts and AgNPs) and 20 μL of the inoculum of V. parahaemolyticus. The MIC for AgNPs was 6.2-9.3 μg/mL and for ethanol extract of 49-73 mg/mL. The Akaike index (AIC) was used to choose the Gompertz model for ethanol extracts of Ep as the best data descriptor (AIC=204.8, 10%; 45.5, 20%, and 204.8, 30%). The Richards model was at AgNPs ethanol extract with AIC=-9.3 (10%), -17.5 (20 and 30%). The MIC calculated for EP extracts with the modified Gompertz model were 20 mg/mL (10% and 20% extract) and 40 mg/mL at 30%, while Richard was winner for AgNPs-synthesized it was 5 μg/mL (10% and 20%) and 8 μg/mL (30%). The solver tool Excel was used for the calculations of the models and inhibition curves against V.parahaemolyticus.

Keywords: green synthesis, euphorbia prostata, phenols, flavonoids, bactericide

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Authors: Aniya Everette

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In June of 1971, President Richard Nixon made his first public declaration regarding the “War on Drugs,” deeming it America’s number one public enemy. Since then, the drug war has been a divisive topic in the US. Black and brown children have been unfairly targeted and imprisoned at alarming rates as a result of this policy, which has had a negative effect on them. Black and Latino youth have faced significant obstacles that have impacted their educational opportunities, employment prospects, and general quality of life due to harsh mandatory sentences, aggressive policing tactics, and racial profiling.

Keywords: war, drugs, crime, racial profiling

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Authors: Ha Hai Duong, Amnon Levy Livermore, Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, Oleg Yerokhin

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The issues of economic development, the environment and human health have been investigated since 1990s. Previous researchers have found different empirical evidences of the relationship between income and environmental pollution, health as determinant of economic growth, and the effects of income and environmental pollution on health in various regions of the world. This paper concentrates on integrative relationship analysis of GDP, carbon dioxide emissions, and health services and population health in context of Vietnam. We applied the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on datasets of Vietnam’s sixty-three provinces for the years 2000-2010. Our results show the significant positive effect of GDP on emissions and the dependence of population health on emissions and health services. We find the significant relationship between population health and GDP. Additionally, health services are significantly affected by population health and GDP. Finally, the population size too is other important determinant of both emissions and GDP.

Keywords: economic development, emissions, environmental pollution, health

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Authors: Andrei Contan, Richard Torkar

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Aim: The process of test automation and its practices in industry have to be better understood, both for the industry itself and for the research community. Method: We conducted a quantitative industry survey by asking IT professionals to answer questions related to the area of test automation. Results: Test automation needs and practices vary greatly between organizations at different stages of the software development life cycle. Conclusions: Most of the findings are general test automation challenges and are specific to small- to medium-sized companies, developing software applications in the web, desktop or mobile domain.

Keywords: survey, testing, test automation, status of test automation

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Authors: Raymond Yudhi Purba, Levy Olivia Nur, Radial Anwar

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This research presents the design and measurement of a skew planar wheel antenna that is used to visualize the first person view perspective of unmanned aerial vehicles. The antenna has been designed using CST Studio Suite 2019 to have voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) ≤ 2, return loss ≤ -10 dB, bandwidth ≥ 100 MHz to covering outdoor access point band from 5.725 to 5.825 GHz, omnidirectional radiation pattern, and elliptical polarization. Dimensions of skew planar wheel antenna have been modified using parameter sweep technique to provide good performances. The simulation results provide VSWR 1.231, return loss -19.693 dB, bandwidth 828.8 MHz, gain 3.292 dB, and axial ratio 9.229 dB. Meanwhile, the measurement results provide VSWR 1.237, return loss -19.476 dB, bandwidth 790.5 MHz, gain 3.2034 dB, and axial ratio 4.12 dB.

Keywords: skew planar wheel, cloverleaf, first-person view, unmanned aerial vehicle, parameter sweep

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Authors: Anna M. N. Shifotoka, Richard Walker, Katie Haighton, Richard McNally

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An analysis of trends in Case Notification Rates (CNR) can be used to monitor the impact of Tuberculosis (TB) control interventions over time in order to inform the implementation of current and future TB interventions. A retrospective analysis of trends in TB CNR for two urban regions in Namibia, namely Khomas and Erongo regions, was conducted. TB case notification data were obtained from annual TB reports of the national TB programme, Ministry of Health and Social Services, covering the period from 1997 to 2015. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse trends in CNR for different types of TB groups. A trend was considered to be statistically significant when a p-value was less than 0.05. During the period under review, the crude CNR for all forms of TB declined from 808 to 400 per 100 000 population in Khomas, and from 1051 to 611 per 100 000 population in Erongo. In both regions, significant change points in trends were observed for all types of TB groups examined. In Khomas region, the trend for new smear positive pulmonary TB increased significantly by an annual rate of 4.1% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.3% to 8.2%) during the period 1997 to 2004, and thereafter declined significantly by -6.2% (95%CI: -7.7% to -4.3%) per year until 2015. Similarly, the trend for smear negative pulmonary TB increased significantly by 23.7% (95%CI: 9.7 to 39.5) per year from 1997 to 2004 and thereafter declined significantly by an annual change of -26.4% (95%CI: -33.1% to -19.8%). The trend for all forms of TB CNR in Khomas region increased significantly by 8.1% (95%CI: 3.7 to 12.7) per year from 1997 to 2004 and thereafter declined significantly a rate of -8.7% (95%CI: -10.6 to -6.8). In Erongo region, the trend for smear positive pulmonary TB increased at a rate of 1.2% (95%CI: -1.2% to 3.6%) annually during the earlier years (1997 to 2008), and thereafter declined significantly by -9.3% (95%CI: -13.3% to -5.0%) per year from 2008 to 2015. Also in Erongo, the trend for all forms of TB CNR increased significantly by an annual rate of 4.0% (95%CI: 1.4% to 6.6%) during the years between 1997 to 2006 and thereafter declined significantly by -10.4% (95%CI: -12.7% to -8.0%) per year during 2006 to 2015. The trend for extra-pulmonary TB CNR declined but did not reach statistical significance in both regions. In conclusion, CNRs declined for all types of TB examined in both regions. Further research is needed to study trends for other TB dimensions such as treatment outcomes and notification of drug resistant TB cases.

Keywords: epidemiology, Namibia, temporal trends, tuberculosis

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, Michael Smithson, Jane E. Joseph, Christine Corbly, Ifat Levy

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Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities (“ambiguity”). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design, the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on both expected value and variance. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across subjects. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. This novel double dissociation indicates that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research.

Keywords: decision making, uncertainty, ambiguity, conflict, fMRI

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Authors: Ali Moafi, Kourosh Kalantarzadeh, Richard Kaner, Parviz Parvin, Ebrahim Asl Soleimani, Dougal McCulloch

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In-situ Raman spectroscopy of flexible graphene-oxide films examined upon exposure to hydrogen gas, air, and synthetic air. The changes in D and G peaks are attributed to defects responding to atomic hydrogen spilled over from the catalytic behavior of Pt nanoparticles distributed all over the film. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy images (HRTEM) as well as electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) were carried out to define the density of the samples.

Keywords: in situ Raman Spectroscopy, EELS, TEM, graphene oxide, graphene, atomic hydrogen

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Authors: Shonak Bansal, Prince Jain, Arun Kumar Singh, Neena Gupta

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Recently nature–inspired algorithms have widespread use throughout the tough and time consuming multi–objective scientific and engineering design optimization problems. In this paper, we present extended forms of firefly algorithm to find optimal Golomb ruler (OGR) sequences. The OGRs have their one of the major application as unequally spaced channel–allocation algorithm in optical wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) systems in order to minimize the adverse four–wave mixing (FWM) crosstalk effect. The simulation results conclude that the proposed optimization algorithm has superior performance compared to the existing conventional computing and nature–inspired optimization algorithms to find OGRs in terms of ruler length, total optical channel bandwidth and computation time.

Keywords: channel allocation, conventional computing, four–wave mixing, nature–inspired algorithm, optimal Golomb ruler, lévy flight distribution, optimization, improved multi–objective firefly algorithms, Pareto optimal

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Authors: Mladen Milicevic

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This paper takes a semiological approach to show, that the meaning is not located in the art object nor it is exclusively in the mind of the perceiver, but rather lies in the relationship of the two. The ultimate intention of making art is to be presented and perceived by subjective human beings. But there will be as many different interpretations of the art presented to them, as they are individuals in the audience. To support this claim, the latest research from neuroscience, cognitive psychology, and Neo-Darwinism is used. This paper draws on Richard Dawkins’ concept of memes as one of the main tools for explaining how differences get created within various socio-cultural environments. Analyzing pitfalls of the modernist worldview, the author proposes postmodern methods as more efficient ways of understanding today’s complexities in the art, culture, and the world. Deconstructing how these differences have come about, presents a possibility for the transgression of the opposing and many times adamant viewpoints.

Keywords: semiology, music, meme, postmodern

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Authors: Richard Joseph, Nerey Mvungi

Abstract:

An electric power system includes a generating, a transmission, a distribution and consumers subsystems. An electrical power network in Tanzania keeps growing larger by the day and become more complex so that, most utilities have long wished for real-time monitoring and remote control of electrical power system elements such as substations, intelligent devices, power lines, capacitor banks, feeder switches, fault analyzers and other physical facilities. In this paper, the concept of automation of management of power systems from generation level to end user levels was determined by using Power System Simulator for Engineering (PSS/E) version 30.3.2.

Keywords: automation, distribution subsystem, generating subsystem, PSS/E, TANESCO, transmission subsystem

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Authors: Fatemeh Nemati, Lucinda Leonard, Gwyn Lintern, Richard Thomson

Abstract:

In this study, we will use modern numerical modeling approaches to estimate tsunami risks to the southern coast of British Columbia from landslides. Wave generation is to be simulated using the NHWAVE model, which solves the Navier-Stokes equations due to the more complex behavior of flow near the landslide source; far-field wave propagation will be simulated using the simpler model FUNWAVE_TVD with high-order Boussinesq-type wave equations, with a focus on the accurate simulation of wave propagation and regional- or coastal-scale inundation predictions.

Keywords: FUNWAVE-TVD, landslide-generated tsunami, NHWAVE, tsunami risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: András Szekrényes

Abstract:

Delamination is one of the major failure modes in laminated composite structures. Delamination tips are mostly captured by spatial numerical models in order to predict crack growth. This paper presents some mechanical models of delaminated composite shells based on shallow shell theories. The mechanical fields are based on a third-order displacement field in terms of the through-thickness coordinate of the laminated shell. The undelaminated and delaminated parts are captured by separate models and the continuity and boundary conditions are also formulated in a general way providing a large size boundary value problem. The system of differential equations is solved by the state space method for an elliptic delaminated shell having simply supported edges. The comparison of the proposed and a numerical model indicates that the primary indicator of the model is the deflection, the secondary is the widthwise distribution of the energy release rate. The model is promising and suitable to determine accurately the J-integral distribution along the delamination front. Based on the proposed model it is also possible to develop finite elements which are able to replace the computationally expensive spatial models of delaminated structures.

Keywords: J-integral, levy method, third-order shell theory, state space solution

Procedia PDF Downloads 95