Search results for: tsunami risk

Authors: James Hilton Williams

Abstract:

Recent tsunami events, including the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Chile, have highlighted the potential for tsunami impacts on the built environment. International research in the tsunami impacts domain has been largely focused toward impacts on buildings and casualty estimations, while only limited attention has been placed on the impacts on infrastructure which is critical for the recovery of impacted communities. New Zealand, with 75% of the population within 10 km of the coast, has a large amount of coastal infrastructure exposed to local, regional and distant tsunami sources. To effectively manage tsunami risk for New Zealand critical infrastructure, including energy, transportation, and communications, the vulnerability of infrastructure networks and components must first be determined. This research develops infrastructure asset vulnerability, functionality and repair- cost functions based on international post-event tsunami impact assessment data from technologically similar countries, including Japan and Chile, and adapts these to New Zealand. These functions are then utilized within a New Zealand based impact framework, allowing for cost benefit analyses, effective tsunami risk management strategies and mitigation options for exposed critical infrastructure to be determined, which can also be applied internationally.

Keywords: impact assessment, infrastructure, tsunami impacts, vulnerability functions

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Authors: V. A. Ritchie

Abstract:

The loss of life and livelihood experienced after the magnitude 9.3 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami on 26 December 2004 and magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan on 11 March 2011, has raised global awareness and brought tsunami phenomenology, nomenclature, and representation into sharp focus. At the same time, travel and tourism continue to increase, contributing around 1 in 11 jobs worldwide. This increase in tourism is especially true for coastal zones, placing pressure on decision-makers to downplay tsunami risks and at the same time provide adequate tsunami warning so that holidaymakers will feel confident enough to visit places of high tsunami risk. This study investigates how well tsunami preparedness messages are getting through for tourist-based businesses in Hawke’s Bay New Zealand, a region of frequent seismic activity and a high probability of experiencing a nearshore tsunami. The aim of this study is to investigate whether tourists based businesses are well informed about tsunamis, how well they understand that information and to what extent their clients are included in awareness raising and evacuation processes. In high-risk tsunami zones, such as Hawke’s Bay, tourism based businesses face competitive tension between short term business profitability and longer term reputational issues related to preventable loss of life from natural hazards, such as tsunamis. This study will address ways to accommodate culturally and linguistically relevant tourist awareness measures without discouraging tourists or being too costly to implement.

Keywords: tsunami risk and response, travel and tourism, business preparedness, cross cultural knowledge transfer

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Authors: Jean-Pierre Dubois, Jihad S. Daba, H. Karam, J. Abdallah

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Tsunami early detection and warning systems have proved to be of ultimate importance, especially after the destructive tsunami that hit Japan in March 2012. Such systems are crucial to inform the authorities of any risk of a tsunami and of the degree of its danger in order to make the right decision and notify the public of the actions they need to take to save their lives. The purpose of this research is to enhance existing tsunami detection and warning systems. We first propose an automated and miniaturized model of an early tsunami detection and warning system. The model for the operation of a tsunami warning system is simulated using the data acquisition toolbox of Matlab and measurements acquired from specified internet pages due to the lack of the required real-life sensors, both seismic and hydrologic, and building a graphical user interface for the system. In the second phase of this work, we implement various satellite image filtering schemes to enhance the acquired synthetic aperture radar images of the tsunami affected region that are masked by speckle noise. This enables us to conduct a post-tsunami damage extent study and calculate the percentage damage. We conclude by proposing improvements to the existing telecommunication infrastructure of existing warning tsunami systems using a migration to IP-based networks and fiber optics links.

Keywords: detection, GIS, GSN, GTS, GPS, speckle noise, synthetic aperture radar, tsunami, wiener filter

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Authors: Tasuku Hongo, Hiroya Mamori, Naoya Fukushima, Makoto Yamamoto

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A tsunami induced by an earthquake gives a severe disaster in coastal area. As well known, the huge earthquake in Japan 2011 induced a huge tsunami and the tsunami caused serious damage in the Tohoku and Kanto area. Although breakwaters were constructed in the coast to suppress the tsunami, these were collapsed, and it resulted in severe disasters. In order to decrease the tsunami disaster, we propose the submerged breakwaters and investigate its effect on the tsunami behavior by means of numerical simulations. In order to reproduce tsunami and capture its interface, we employed a moving particle method which is one of the Lagragian methods. Different from ordinary breakwaters, the present breakwater is located in the under-sea. An effective installation condition is investigated by the parametric study. The results show that the submerged breakwater can decrease the wave force by the tsunami. Moreover, the combination of two submerged breakwaters can reduce the tsunami safely and effectively. Therefore, the present results give the effective condition of the installation of the under-sea breakwaters and its mechanism.

Keywords: coastal area, tsunami force reduction, MPS method, submerged breakwater

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Authors: Yoshinori Matsuura, Saori Iwanaga

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The Great East Japan Earthquake occurred at 14:46 on Friday, March 11, 2011. It was the most powerful known earthquake to have hit Japan. The earthquake triggered extremely destructive tsunami waves of up to 40.5 meters in height. We focus on the ship’s evacuation from tsunami. Then we analyze about ships evacuation from tsunami using multi-agent simulation and we want to prepare for a coming earthquake. We developed a simulation model of ships that set sail from the port in order to evacuate from the tsunami considering the ship carrying dangerous goods.

Keywords: Ship’s evacuation, multi-agent simulation, tsunami

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Authors: Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Takuma Kotani, Terada Kenjiro

Abstract:

If risk management of the assets owned by companies, risk assessment of real estate portfolio, and risk identification of the entire region are to be implemented, it is necessary to consider simultaneous damage to multiple buildings. In this research, the Sagami Trough earthquake tsunami that could have a significant effect on the Japanese capital region is focused on, and a method is proposed for simultaneous damage assessment using copulas that can take into consideration the correlation of tsunami depths and building damage between two sites. First, the tsunami inundation depths at two sites were simulated by using a nonlinear long-wave equation. The tsunamis were simulated by varying the slip amount (five cases) and the depths (five cases) for each of 10 sources of the Sagami Trough. For each source, the frequency distributions of the tsunami inundation depth were evaluated by using the response surface method. Then, Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted, and frequency distributions of tsunami inundation depth were evaluated at the target sites for all sources of the Sagami Trough. These are marginal distributions. Kendall’s tau for the tsunami inundation simulation at two sites was 0.83. Based on this value, the Gaussian copula, t-copula, Clayton copula, and Gumbel copula (n = 10,000) were generated. Then, the simultaneous distributions of the damage rate were evaluated using the marginal distributions and the copulas. For the correlation of the tsunami inundation depth at the two sites, the expected value hardly changed compared with the case of no correlation, but the damage rate of the ninety-ninth percentile value was approximately 2%, and the maximum value was approximately 6% when using the Gumbel copula.

Keywords: copulas, Monte-Carlo simulation, probabilistic risk assessment, tsunamis

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Authors: Hedyeh Gamini, Hadi Abdus

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Tsunami, as a natural disaster, is composed of waves that are usually caused by severe movements at the sea floor. Although tsunami and its consequences cannot be prevented in any way, by examining past tsunamis and extracting key points on how to deal with this incident and learning from it, a positive step can be taken to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements and reduce the risk of this phenomenon in architecture and urbanism. The method is reviewing and has examined the documents written and valid internet sites related to managing and reducing the vulnerability of human settlements in face of tsunami. This paper has explored the tsunamis in Indonesia (2004), Sri Lanka (2004) and Japan (2011), and of the study objectives has been understanding how they dealt with tsunami and extracting key points, and the lessons from them in terms of reduction of vulnerability of human settlements in dealing with the tsunami. Finally, strategies to prevent and reduce the vulnerability of communities at risk of tsunamis have been offered in terms of architecture and urban planning. According to what is obtained from the study of the recent tsunamis, the authorities' quality of dealing with them, how to manage the crisis and the manner of their construction, it can be concluded that to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements against tsunami, there are generally four ways that are: 1-Construction of tall buildings with opening on the first floor so that water can flow easily under and the direction of the building should be in a way that water passes easily from the side. 2- The construction of multi-purpose centers, which could be used as vertical evacuation during accidents. 3- Constructing buildings in core forms with diagonal orientation of the coastline, 4- Building physical barriers (natural and synthetic) such as water dams, mounds of earth, sea walls and creating forests

Keywords: tsunami, architecture, reducing vulnerability, human settlements, urbanism

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Authors: Mark White

Abstract:

The best practices for owners and urban planners to manage tsunami risk have evolved during the last fifty years, and related technical advances have created opportunities for them to obtain better performance than in earlier cataclysmic tsunami inundations. This basic pattern is illustrated at Hilo Bay, the waterfront area of Hilo, Hawaii, an urban seaport which faces the most severe tsunami hazard of the Hawaiian archipelago. Since April 1, 1946, Hilo Bay has endured tsunami waves with a maximum water height exceeding 2.5 meters following four severe earthquakes: Unimak Island (Mw 8.6, 6.1 m) in 1946; Valdiva (Mw 9.5, the largest earthquake of the 20th century, 10.6 m) in 1960; William Prince Sound (Mw 9.2, 3.8 m) in 1964; and Kalapana (Mw 7.7, the largest earthquake in Hawaii since 1868, 2.6 m) in 1975. Ignoring numerous smaller tsunamis during the same time frame, these four cataclysmic tsunamis have caused property losses in Hilo to exceed $1.25 billion and more than 150 deaths. It is reasonable to foresee another cataclysmic tsunami inundating the urban core of Hilo in the next 50 years, which, if unchecked, could cause additional deaths and losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Urban planners and individual owners are now in a position to reduce these losses in the next foreseeable tsunami that generates maximum water heights between 2.5 and 10 meters in Hilo Bay. Since 1946, Hilo planners and individual owners have already created buffer zones between the shoreline and its historic downtown area. As these stakeholders make inevitable improvements to the built environment along and adjacent to the shoreline, they should incorporate new methods for better managing the obvious tsunami risk at Hilo. At the planning level, new manmade land forms, such as tsunami parks and inundation reservoirs, should be developed. Individual owners should require their design professionals to include sacrificial seismic and tsunami fuses that will perform well in foreseeable severe events and that can be easily repaired in the immediate aftermath. These investments before the next cataclysmic tsunami at Hilo will yield substantial reductions in property losses and fatalities.

Keywords: hilo, tsunami parks, reservoirs, fuse systems, risk managment

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Authors: A. R. Shakura, A. B. Elistina, M. S. Aini, S. Norhasmah, A. Fakhru’l-Razi

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Tsunami 2004 was an unforeseeable event that caught Malaysia of guard resulting with 68 losses of lives and with an estimated economic loss of about 55.15billion US dollar. Scientists predict that if the earthquake epicentre originates from the Andaman-Nicobar region, the coastal population of Penang will have about 30 minutes to evacuate to safety. Thus, a study was conducted to enhance resiliency of Penang community as the area was the worst affected region during 2004 tsunami disaster. This paper is intended to examine the factors that influence intention to prepare for future tsunami among the coastal residence in Penang. The differences in the level of intention to prepare were also examined between those who experience and did not experience the 2004 tsunami. This study utilized a cross-sectional research design using a survey method. A total of 503 respondents were chosen systematically and data gathered were analysed using SPSS. Both genders, male and female were equally represented with a mean age of 44 years. Data indicated that the level of intention to prepare for tsunami disaster was moderate (M=3.72) with no significant difference in intention to prepare between those who had experienced or had not experienced the 2004 tsunami. Subsequently, results from a multiple regression analysis found that sense of community to be the most influential factor followed by subjective norm, trust, positive outcome expectancy and risk perception, explaining the 57% variance in intention to prepare. These factors reflect the influence of the collectivistic culture in Malaysia whereby households plus communities have a central role in encouraging each other. Therefore, the findings highlights the potential of adopting a community based disaster risk management as recommended by the United Nations International Strategy Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) which encompasses the cooperation between the local community and relevant stakeholders in preparing for future tsunami disaster.

Keywords: disaster management, experience, intention to prepare, tsunami

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Authors: Md. Fazlul Karim, Ahmad Izani Md. Ismail, Mohammed Ashaque Meah

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This paper focuses on the development of a 2-D Boundary Fitted and Nested Grid (BFNG) model to compute the tsunami propagation of Indonesian tsunami 2004 along the coastal region of Penang in Peninsular Malaysia. In the presence of a curvilinear coastline, boundary fitted grids are suitable to represent the model boundaries accurately. On the other hand, when large gradient of velocity within a confined area is expected, the use of a nested grid system is appropriate to improve the numerical accuracy with the least grid numbers. This paper constructs a shallow water nested and orthogonal boundary fitted grid model and presents computational results of the tsunami impact on the Penang coast due to the Indonesian tsunami of 2004. The results of the numerical simulations are compared with available data.

Keywords: boundary fitted nested model, tsunami, Penang Island, 2004 Indonesian Tsunami

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

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It is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis in view of recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 which brought huge losses of lives and properties. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling and the Subset Simulation algorithm is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface, stochastic simulation, structural reliability tsunami, risk

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Authors: Fatemeh Nemati, Lucinda Leonard, Gwyn Lintern, Richard Thomson

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In this study, we will use modern numerical modeling approaches to estimate tsunami risks to the southern coast of British Columbia from landslides. Wave generation is to be simulated using the NHWAVE model, which solves the Navier-Stokes equations due to the more complex behavior of flow near the landslide source; far-field wave propagation will be simulated using the simpler model FUNWAVE_TVD with high-order Boussinesq-type wave equations, with a focus on the accurate simulation of wave propagation and regional- or coastal-scale inundation predictions.

Keywords: FUNWAVE-TVD, landslide-generated tsunami, NHWAVE, tsunami risk

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Authors: M. Ashaque Meah, Md. Fazlul Karim, M. Shah Noor, Nazmun Nahar Papri, M. Khalid Hossen, M. Ismoen

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Tsunami and inundation modelling due to far field tsunami propagation in a limited area is a very challenging numerical task because it involves many aspects such as the formation of various types of waves and the irregularities of coastal boundaries. To compute the effect of far field tsunami and extent of inland inundation due to far field tsunami along the coastal belts of west coast of Malaysia and Southern Thailand, a formulated boundary condition and a moving boundary condition are simultaneously used. In this study, a boundary fitted curvilinear grid system is used in order to incorporate the coastal and island boundaries accurately as the boundaries of the model domain are curvilinear in nature and the bending is high. The tsunami response of the event 26 December 2004 along the west open boundary of the model domain is computed to simulate the effect of far field tsunami. Based on the data of the tsunami source at the west open boundary of the model domain, a boundary condition is formulated and applied to simulate the tsunami response along the coastal and island boundaries. During the simulation process, a moving boundary condition is initiated instead of fixed vertical seaside wall. The extent of inland inundation and tsunami propagation pattern are computed. Some comparisons are carried out to test the validation of the simultaneous use of the two boundary conditions. All simulations show excellent agreement with the data of observation.

Keywords: open boundary condition, moving boundary condition, boundary-fitted curvilinear grids, far-field tsunami, shallow water equations, tsunami source, Indonesian tsunami of 2004

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Authors: Alexander P. Vazhenin, Mikhail M. Lavrentiev, Alexey A. Romanenko, Pavel V. Tatarintsev

Abstract:

One of the problems obstructing effective tsunami modelling is the lack of information about initial wave shape at source. The existing methods; geological, sea radars, satellite images, contain an important part of uncertainty. Therefore, direct measurement of tsunami waves obtained at the deep water bottom peruse recorders is also used. In this paper we propose a new method to reconstruct the initial sea surface displacement at tsunami source by the measured signal (marigram) approximation with the help of linear combination of synthetic marigrams from the selected set of unit sources, calculated in advance. This method has demonstrated good precision and very high performance. The mathematical model and results of numerical tests are here described.

Keywords: numerical tests, orthogonal decomposition, Tsunami Initial Sea Surface Displacement

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Authors: Mohammad Mokhtari, Mehdi Masoodi, Parvaneh Faridi

Abstract:

history of tsunami generating earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone provides evidence of the potential tsunami hazard for the whole coastal area. In comparison with other subduction zone in the world, the Makran region of southern Pakistan and southeastern Iran remains low seismicity. Also, it is one of the least studied area in the northwest of the Indian Ocean regarding tsunami studies. We present a review of studies dealing with the historical /and ongoing palaeotsunamis supported by IGCP of UNESCO in the Makran Subduction Zone. The historical tsunami presented here includes about nine tsunamis in the Makran Subduction Zone, of which over 7 tsunamis occur in the eastern Makran. Tsunami is not as common in the western Makran as in the eastern Makran, where a database of historical events exists. The historically well-documented event is related to the 1945 earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1moment magnitude and tsunami in the western and eastern Makran. There are no details as to whether a tsunami was generated by a seismic event before 1945 off western Makran. But several potentially large tsunamigenic events in the MSZ before 1945 occurred in 325 B.C., 1008, 1483, 1524, 1765, 1851, 1864, and 1897. Here we will present new findings from a historical point of view, immediately, we would like to emphasize that the area needs to be considered with higher research investigation. As mentioned above, a palaeotsunami (geological evidence) is now being planned, and here we will present the first phase result. From a risk point of view, the study shows as preliminary achievement within 20 minutes the wave reaches to Iranian as well Pakistan and Oman coastal zone with very much destructive tsunami waves capable of inundating destructive effect. It is important to note that all the coastal areas of all states surrounding the MSZ are being developed very rapidly, so any event would have a devastating effect on this region. Although several papers published about modelling, seismology, tsunami deposits in the last decades; as Makran is a forgotten subduction zone, more data such as the main crustal structure, fault location, and its related parameter are required.

Keywords: historical tsunami, Indian ocean, makran subduction zone, palaeotsunami

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

Abstract:

Recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 brought huge losses of lives and properties. Maintaining vertical evacuation systems is the most crucial strategy to effectively reduce casualty during the tsunami event. Thus, it is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability (or its complement failure probability) of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of the Subset Simulation algorithm and a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface model, subset simulation, structural reliability, Tsunami risk

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Authors: N. K. Gupta, R. C. Bhattacharjee

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In the aftermath of the tsunami in 2004 and terrible humanitarian disaster affecting thousands of kilometers of coastal south, the immediate priority is to begin the process of reconstruction of livelihoods including basic services. It is likely that many coastal wetlands would have been affected by the large inflow of salt-water and littoral sediments during the tsunami, with longer-term effects including changes in their hydrogeology caused by changes to coastlines and damage to sea-defenses. The reconstruction process is likely to provide opportunities to better integrate environmental protection and management with economic development in the region, including the opportunity to conserve and restore coastal habitats. Presented herein is a study pertaining to salinity problems encountered in coastal south during tsunami in 2004 and the consequent loss of fertility of agricultural land including remedial measures to revitalize economic growth in the region.

Keywords: tsunami, salinity, costal area, reconstruction

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Authors: Muhamad Aris Burhanudin, Angga Firmansyas, Bagus Jaya Santosa

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Earthquakes are natural hazard that can trigger the most dangerous hazard, tsunami. 26 December 2004, a giant earthquake occurred in north-west Andalas Island. It made giant tsunami which crushed Sumatra, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Singapore. More than twenty thousand people dead. The occurrence of earthquake and tsunami can not be avoided. But this hazard can be mitigated by earthquake forecasting. Early preparation is the key factor to reduce its damages and consequences. We aim to investigate quantitatively on pattern of earthquake. Then, we can know the trend. We study about earthquake which has happened in Andalas island, Indonesia one last decade. Andalas is island which has high seismicity, more than a thousand event occur in a year. It is because Andalas island is in tectonic subduction zone of Hindia sea plate and Eurasia plate. A tsunami forecasting is needed to mitigation action. Thus, a Tsunami Forecasting Method is presented in this work. Neutral Network has used widely in many research to estimate earthquake and it is convinced that by using Backpropagation Method, earthquake can be predicted. At first, ANN is trained to predict Tsunami 26 December 2004 by using earthquake data before it. Then after we get trained ANN, we apply to predict the next earthquake. Not all earthquake will trigger Tsunami, there are some characteristics of earthquake that can cause Tsunami. Wrong decision can cause other problem in the society. Then, we need a method to reduce possibility of wrong decision. Fuzzy TOPSIS is a statistical method that is widely used to be decision seconder referring to given parameters. Fuzzy TOPSIS method can make the best decision whether it cause Tsunami or not. This work combines earthquake prediction using neural network method and using Fuzzy TOPSIS to determine the decision that the earthquake triggers Tsunami wave or not. Neural Network model is capable to capture non-linear relationship and Fuzzy TOPSIS is capable to determine the best decision better than other statistical method in tsunami prediction.

Keywords: earthquake, fuzzy TOPSIS, neural network, tsunami

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Authors: Lorifel Hinay

Abstract:

Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity in the Philippines over the years resulting to detrimental impacts in school properties and lives of learners. The topography of the Province of Southern Leyte is a hotspot for inevitable natural disaster-causing hazards that could affect schools, cripple the educational system and cause environmental, cultural and social detrimental impacts making Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) an indispensable platform to keep learners safe, secure and resilient. This study determined the schools’ vulnerability and risk assessment to earthquake, landslide, flood, storm surge and tsunami hazards, and its relationship to status in disaster preparedness. Descriptive-correlational research design was used where the respondents were School DRRM Coordinators/School Administrators and Municipal DRRM Officers. It was found that schools’ vulnerability and risk were high in landslide, medium in earthquake, and low in flood, storm surge and tsunami. Though schools were moderately prepared in disasters across all hazards, they were less accomplished in group organization and property security. Less planning preparation and less implementation of DRRM measures were observed in schools highly at risk of earthquake and landslide. Also, schools vulnerable to landslide and flood have very high property security. Topography and location greatly contributed to schools’ vulnerability to hazards, thus, a school-based disaster preparedness plan is hoped to help ensure that hazard-exposed schools can build a culture of safety, disaster resiliency and education continuity.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction and management, earthquake, flood, landslide, storm surge, tsunami

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Authors: Suphaporn Rattanaphinanchai

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The purpose of this study is to 1) describe and analyze the travel motivations of tourists visiting Phi Phi Islands after the Tsunami in 2004 and 2) to better understand whether there are significant differences in the tourists’ motivations in visiting Phi Phi Island after the Tsunami hit across tourists with different demographic profile. This study used Phi Phi Islands, which was damaged by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as a case study. The instrument used in the present study is a self-administered questionnaire. A survey with 200 questionnaires was collected in May - December, 2015. Descriptive statistics, Independent Sample Mean T-tests, and Analysis of Variances was used to analyze the data. The result of the study showed that beauty of nature, good climate, and relaxing atmosphere motivated tourists in visiting Phi Phi Islands after the tsunami.

Keywords: motivation, Thailand, Thai tourism, Thai beaches

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Authors: Sean Sloan

Abstract:

Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

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Authors: Abhishek Mukherjee, Juan C. Cajas, Jenny Suckale, Guillaume Houzeaux, Oriol Lehmkuhl, Simone Marras

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The investigation of tsunami flow characteristics and the quantification of tsunami energy reduction through the coastal vegetation is important to understand the protective benefits of nature-based mitigation parks. In the present study, a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic incompressible Computational Fluid Dynamics model with a two-way coupling enabled fluid-structure interaction approach (FSI) is used. After validating the numerical model against experimental data, tsunami flow characteristics have been investigated by varying vegetation density, modulus of elasticity, the gap between stems, and arrangement or distribution of vegetation patches. Streamwise depth average velocity profiles, turbulent kinetic energy, energy flux reflection, and dissipation extracted by the numerical study will be presented in this study. These diagnostics are essential to assess the importance of different parameters to design the proper coastal defense systems. When a tsunami wave reaches the shore, it transforms into undular bores, which induce scour around offshore structures and sediment transport. The bed shear stress, instantaneous turbulent kinetic energy, and the vorticity near-bed will be presented to estimate the importance of vegetation to prevent tsunami-induced scour and sediment transport.

Keywords: coastal defense, energy flux, fluid-structure interaction, natural hazards, sediment transport, tsunami mitigation

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Authors: Islam Abou El-Magd, Elham Ali, Ali Amasha

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Earthquakes strike without warning and cause widespread damage to social and economic infrastructures and creating life losses. These can neither be predicted nor prevented in terms of their magnitude, place, and time of occurrence. It is a global phenomenon that creates nearly 18% of life losses and nearly 35% of economic damage. The coastal zone of Egypt is considered low to medium risk, however, there is a record of high magnitude earthquakes that created Tsunami in the past. The northern coastal zone of Egypt is under the force of tension shear zones of African and European plates that have considerable earthquakes with variable degrees. This research studied the earthquakes in the last 65 years in the Mediterranean Basin in relation to the geotectonic shear zones. 85% of these earthquakes are in the marine that might create Tsunami. Aegean and Anatolia shear zones are the highest contributors of the earthquakes with nearly 37% and 36% respectively. However the least one is the Arabia zone with 1%, and Africa is about 26%. The research proposed three scenarios for the socioeconomic hazards, earthquakes with Tsunami that will destroy one fifth of the economic infrastructures with unpredictable life losses. The estimated cost of recovery of such losses is nearly 400B USD. The second scenario is earthquake without Tsunami that will impact the major urban and infrastructures. The last scenario is tidal gauges events that threaten the low-lying areas particularly the eastern side which has major land subsidence.

Keywords: natural hazards, earthquakes, tusnami, Nile delta, Egypt

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Authors: Fazlul Karim, Esa Al-Islam

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Many problems in oceanography and environmental sciences require the solution of shallow water equations on physical domains having curvilinear coastlines and abrupt changes of ocean depth near the shore. Finite-difference technique for the shallow water equations representing the boundary as stair step may give inaccurate results near the coastline where results are of greatest interest for various applications. This suggests the use of methods which are capable of incorporating the irregular boundary in coastal belts. At the same time, large velocity gradient is expected near the beach and islands as water depth vary abruptly near the coast. A nested numerical scheme with fine resolution is the best resort to enhance the numerical accuracy with the least grid numbers for the region of interests where the velocity changes rapidly and which is unnecessary for the away of the region. This paper describes the development of a boundary fitted nested grid (BFNG) model to compute tsunami propagation of 2004 Indonesian tsunami in Southern Thailand coastal waters. In this paper, we develop a numerical model employing the shallow water nested model and an orthogonal boundary fitted grid to investigate the tsunami impact on the Southern Thailand due to the Indonesian tsunami of 2004. Comparisons of water surface elevation obtained from numerical simulations and field measurements are made.

Keywords: Indonesian tsunami of 2004, Boundary-fitted nested grid model, Southern Thailand, finite difference method

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Authors: Zakiul Fuady, Michaela Spiske

Abstract:

Inundation events, such as storms and tsunamis can leave onshore sedimentary evidence like sand deposits or large boulders. These deposits store indirect information on the related inundation parameters (e.g., flow velocity, flow depth, wave height). One tool to reveal these parameters are inverse models that use the physical characteristics of the deposits to refer to the magnitude of inundation. This study used boulders of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami from Thailand (Pakarang Cape) and form a historical tsunami event that inundated the outer British Virgin Islands (Anegada). For the largest boulder found in Pakarang Cape with a volume of 26.48 m³ the required tsunami wave height is 0.44 m and storm wave height are 1.75 m (for a bulk density of 1.74 g/cm³. In Pakarang Cape the highest tsunami wave height is 0.45 m and storm wave height are 1.8 m for transporting a 20.07 m³ boulder. On Anegada, the largest boulder with a diameter of 2.7 m is the asingle coral head (species Diploria sp.) with a bulk density of 1.61 g/cm³, and requires a minimum tsunami wave height of 0.31 m and storm wave height of 1.25 m. The highest required tsunami wave height on Anegada is 2.12 m for a boulder with a bulk density of 2.46 g/cm³ (volume 0.0819 m³) and the highest storm wave height is 5.48 m (volume 0.216 m³) from the same bulk density and the coral type is limestone. Generally, the higher the bulk density, volume, and weight of the boulders, the higher the minimum tsunami and storm wave heights required to initiate transport. It requires 4.05 m/s flow velocity by Nott’s equation (2003) and 3.57 m/s by Nandasena et al. (2011) to transport the largest boulder in Pakarang Cape, whereas on Anegada, it requires 3.41 m/s to transport a boulder with diameter 2.7 m for both equations. Thus, boulder equations need to be handled with caution because they make many assumptions and simplifications. Second, the physical boulder parameters, such as density and volume need to be determined carefully to minimize any errors.

Keywords: tsunami wave height, storm wave height, flow velocity, boulders, Anegada, Pakarang Cape

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Authors: Febrian Tegar Wicaksana, Niqmatul Kurniati, Surya Nandika

Abstract:

Indonesia is one of the countries that have great number of disaster occurrence and threat because it is located in not only between three tectonic plates such as Eurasia plates, Indo-Australia plates and Pacific plates, but also in the Ring of Fire path, like earthquake, Tsunami, volcanic eruption and many more. Recently, research shows that there are potential areas that will be devastated by Tsunami in southern coast of Java. Tsunami is a series of waves in a body of water caused by the displacement of a large volume of water, generally in an ocean. When the waves enter shallow water, they may rise to several feet or, in rare cases, tens of feet, striking the coast with devastating force. The parameter for reference such as magnitude, the depth of epicentre, distance between epicentres with land, the depth of every points, when reached the shore and the growth of waves. Interaction between parameters will bring the big variance of Tsunami wave. Based on that, we can formulate preparation that needed for disaster mitigation strategies. The mitigation strategies will take the important role in an effort to reduce the number of victims and damage in the area. It will reduce the number of victim and casualties. Reducing is directed to the most difficult mobilization casualties in the tsunami disaster area like old people, sick people and disabilities people. Until now, the method that used for rescuing people from Tsunami is basic horizontal evacuation. This evacuation system is not optimal because it needs so long time and it cannot be used by people with disabilities. The writers propose to create a vertical evacuation model with an escape bunker system. This bunker system is chosen because the downward vertical evacuation is considered more efficient and faster. Especially in coastal areas without any highlands surround it. The downward evacuation system is better than upward evacuation because it can avoid the risk of erosion at the ground around the structure which can affect the building. The structure of the bunker and the evacuation process while, and even after, disaster are the main priority to be considered. The power of bunker has quake’s resistance, the durability from water stream, variety of interaction to the ground, and waterproof design. When the situation is back to normal, victim and casualties can go into the safer place. The bunker will be located near the hospital and public places, and will have wide entrance supported by large slide in it so it will ease the disabilities people. The technology of the escape bunker system is expected to reduce the number of victims who have low mobility in the Tsunami.

Keywords: escape bunker, tsunami, vertical evacuation, mitigation, disaster management

Procedia PDF Downloads 462

Authors: Ileen Van den Berg, Reinier J. Daals, Chris E. M. Heuberger, Sven P. Hildering, Bob E. Van Maris, Carla M. Smulders, Rafael Aránguiz

Abstract:

Chile is located along the subduction zone of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate, where large earthquakes and tsunamis have taken place throughout history. The last significant earthquake (Mw 8.2) occurred in September 2015 and generated a destructive tsunami, which mainly affected the city of Coquimbo (71.33°W, 29.96°S). The inundation area consisted of a beach, damaged seawall, damaged railway, wetland and old neighborhood; therefore, local authorities started a reconstruction process immediately after the event. Moreover, a seismic gap has been identified in the same area, and another large event could take place in the near future. The present work proposed an integrated tsunami reconstruction plan for the city of Coquimbo that considered several variables such as safety, nature & recreation, neighborhood welfare, visual obstruction, infrastructure, construction process, and durability & maintenance. Possible future tsunami scenarios are simulated by means of the Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) model with 5 nested grids and a higher grid resolution of ~10 m. Based on the score from a multi-criteria analysis, the costs of the alternatives and a preference for a multifunctional solution, the alternative that includes an elevated coastal road with floodgates to reduce tsunami overtopping and control the return flow of a tsunami was selected as the best solution. It was also observed that the wetlands are significantly restored to their former configuration; moreover, the dynamic behavior of the wetlands is stimulated. The numerical simulation showed that the new coastal protection decreases damage and the probability of loss of life by delaying tsunami arrival time. In addition, new evacuation routes and a smaller inundation zone in the city increase safety for the area.

Keywords: tsunami, Coquimbo, Chile, reconstruction, numerical simulation

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Authors: Fitri Nugraheni, Adwitya Bhaskara, N. Faried Hanafi

Abstract:

Coastal is one area that can be a place to live. Various buildings can be built in the area around the beach. Many Indonesians use beaches as housing and work, but we know that coastal areas are identical to tsunami and wind. Costs incurred due to permanent damage caused by tsunamis and wind disasters in Indonesia can be minimized by replacing permanent buildings into semi-permanent buildings. Semi-permanent buildings can be realized by using cold-formed steel as a building. Thus, the purpose of this research is to provide efficient semi-permanent building recommendations for residents around the coast. The research is done by first designing the building model by using sketch-up software, then the validation phase is done in consultation with the expert consultant of cold form steel structure. Based on the results of the interview there are several revisions on several sides of the building by adding some bracing rods on the roof, walls and floor frame. The result of this research is recommendation of semi-permanent building model, where the nature of the building; easy to disassemble and install (knockdown), tsunami-friendly (continue the tsunami load), cost and time efficient (using cold-formed-steel and prefabricated GRC), zero waste, does not require many workers (less labor). The recommended building design concept also keeps the architecture side in mind thus it remains a comfortable occupancy for the residents.

Keywords: construction method, cold-formed steel, efficiency, semi-permanent building, tsunami

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Ida Ngurah

Abstract:

Indonesia is one of the most prone disaster countries, which has earthquake, tsunami or high wave, flood and landslide as well as volcano eruption and drought. Disaster risk reduction has been developing extensively and comprehensively, particularly after tsunami hit in 2004. Yet, saving people live including children and youth from disaster risk is still far from succeed. Poor management of environment, poor development of policy and high level of corruption has become challenges for Indonesia to save its people from disaster impact. Indonesia is struggling to ensure its future best investment, children and youth to have better protection when disaster strike in school hours and have basic knowledge on disaster risk reduction. The program of safe school is being initiated and developed by Plan Indonesia since 2010, yet this effort still needs to be elaborated. This paper is reviewing sporadic safe school programs that have been implemented or currently being implemented Plan Indonesia in few areas of Indonesia, including both rural and urban setting. Methods used are in-depth interview with dedicated person for the program from Plan Indonesia and its implementing patners and analysis of project documents. The review includes program’s goal and objectives, implementation activity, result and achievement as well as its monitoring and evaluation scheme. Moreover, paper will be showing challenges, lesson learned and best practices of the program. Eventually, paper will come up with recommendation for strategy for better implementation of safe school program in Indonesia.

Keywords: disaster impact, safe school, programs, children, youth

Procedia PDF Downloads 330

Authors: Toake Endoh

Abstract:

Cross-border migration of people is a critical driver for sustainable economic development in the Asia-Pacific region. Meanwhile, the region is susceptible to mega-scale natural disasters, such as tsunami, earthquakes, and typhoons. When migrants are stranded in a foreign country by a disaster, who should be responsible for their safety and security? What legal or moral foundation is there to advocate for the protection and assistance of “migrants at risk (M@R)”? How can the states practice “good governance” in their response to displacement of the foreign migrants? This paper inquires how to protect foreign migrants displaced by a natural disaster under international law and proposes protective actions to be taken by of migrant-receiver governments. First, the paper discusses the theoretical foundation for protection of M@R and argues that the nation-states are charged of responsibility to protect at-risk foreigners as “internally displaced persons” in the light of the United Nations’ Guiding Principles of Internal Displacement (1998). Second, through the case study of the Kobe Earthquake in Japan (1995), the Tsunami in Thailand (2004), and the Hurricane Katrina in the U.S. (2005), the paper evaluates how effectively (or poorly) institutions and state actors addressed the specific vulnerability felt by M@R in these crises.

Keywords: internal displaced persons, natural disaster, international migration, responsibility to protect

Procedia PDF Downloads 283