Search results for: falciparum malaria

Authors: Chhaya Gangwal, R. N. Bhaumik, Shishir Kumar

Abstract:

Handling uncertainty and impreciseness of knowledge appears to be a challenging task in Information Systems. Intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) and rough set theory enhances databases by allowing it for the management of uncertainty and impreciseness. This paper presents a new efficient query optimization technique for the multi-valued or imprecise IF rough database. The usefulness of this technique was illustrated on malaria knowledge from the rural tribal communities of Tripura where most of the information is multi-valued and imprecise. Then, the querying about knowledge on malaria is executed into SQL server to make the implementation of IF rough data querying simpler.

Keywords: intuitionistic fuzzy set, rough set, relational database, IF rough relational database

Procedia PDF Downloads 444

Authors: Mohammed Bnebaghdad, Feriel Betouche, Malika Semmani

Abstract:

Image processing become more sophisticated over time due to technological advances, especially artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Currently, AI image processing is used in many areas, including surveillance, industry, science, and medicine. AI in medical image processing can help doctors diagnose diseases faster, with minimal mistakes, and with less effort. Among these diseases is malaria, which remains a major public health challenge in many parts of the world. It affects millions of people every year, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. Early detection of malaria is essential to prevent serious complications and reduce the burden of the disease. In this paper, we propose and implement a scheme based on AI image processing to enhance malaria disease diagnosis through automated analysis of blood smear images. The scheme is based on the convolutional neural network (CNN) method. So, we have developed a model that classifies infected and uninfected single red cells using images available on Kaggle, as well as real blood smear images obtained from the Central Laboratory of Medical Biology EHS Laadi Flici (formerly El Kettar) in Algeria. The real images were segmented into individual cells using the watershed algorithm in order to match the images from the Kaagle dataset. The model was trained and tested, achieving an accuracy of 99% and 97% accuracy for new real images. This validates that the model performs well with new real images, although with slightly lower accuracy. Additionally, the model has been embedded in a Raspberry Pi4, and a graphical user interface (GUI) was developed to visualize the malaria diagnostic results and facilitate user interaction.

Keywords: medical image processing, malaria parasite, classification, CNN, artificial intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 19

Authors: Justin-Herve Noubissi, Jean Claude Kamgang, Eric Ramat, Januarius Asongu, Christophe Cambier

Abstract:

The goal of our study is to analyse the impact of climatic factors in malaria transmission taking into account migration between Douala and Yaoundé, two cities of Cameroon country. We show how variations of climatic factors such as temperature and relative humidity affect the malaria spread. We propose a meta-population model of the dynamic transmission of malaria that evolves in space and time and that takes into account temperature and relative humidity and the migration between Douala and Yaoundé. We also integrate the variation of environmental factors as events also called mathematical impulsion that can disrupt the model evolution at any time. Our modelling has been done using the Discrete EVents System Specification (DEVS) formalism. Our implementation has been done on Virtual Laboratory Environment (VLE) that uses DEVS formalism and abstract simulators for coupling models by integrating the concept of DEVS.

Keywords: compartmental models, DEVS, discrete events, meta-population model, VLE

Procedia PDF Downloads 554

Authors: Ivan M. Taremwa, Scholastic Ashaba, Harriet O. Adrama, Carlrona Ayebazibwe, Daniel Omoding, Imelda Kemeza, Jane Yatuha, Thadeus Turuho, Noni E. MacDonald, Robert Hilliard

Abstract:

Background: The burden of malaria in Uganda remains unacceptably high, especially among children and pregnant women. To prevent malaria related complications, household possession and use of Insecticide Treated mosquito Nets (ITNs) has become a common practice in the country. Despite the availability of ITNs, the number of malaria cases has not gone down. We sought to explore knowledge, attitude, and behaviour towards the use of ITNs as a nightly malaria prevention strategy among pregnant women and children under five years of age in rural southwest Uganda. Materials and Methods: This was a community based, descriptive cross-sectional study, in which households with children under 5 years, and/or pregnant women were enrolled. We used a structured questionnaire to collect data on participants’ understanding of the causes, signs and symptoms of malaria; use of ITNs to prevent malaria; attitudes and behaviours towards the use of ITNs. We also conducted key informant interviews (KIIs) to get in-depth understanding of responses from the participants. We analysed quantitative data using STATA version 12. Qualitative findings from the KIIs were transcribed and translated, and manually analysed using thematic content analysis. Results: Of the 369 households enrolled, 98.6% (N=363) households had children under five. Most participants (41.2%, N=152) were in the 21-30 years of age category (mean age; 32.2). 98.6% (N=362) of the respondents considered ITNs a key malaria prevention strategy. The ITN possession rate was 84.0% (N=310), of these, 67.0% (N=205) consistently used them. 39% of the respondents did not have a positive attitude towards ITNs, as they considered more the perceived effects of ITNs. Conclusions: Although 84.0% of the respondents possessed ITNs, many were not consistently using them. There is need to engage all stakeholders (including cultural leaders, community health workers, religious leaders and the government) in the malaria prevention campaigns using ITNs through: a) government’s concerted effort to ensure universal access of good quality ITNs, b) end-user directed education to correct false beliefs and misinformation, c) telling the ITN success stories to improve on the usage.

Keywords: ITNs use, malaria, pregnant women, rural Uganda

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Mirza Sultan Ahmad, Mubashra Ahmad, Ramlah Mehmood, Nazia Mahboob, Waqar Nasir

Abstract:

Objective: To ascertain the prevalence of thrombocytopenia and study changes in MPV and PDW among cases of vivax malaria. Design: Descriptive analytic study. Place and duration of study: Department of pediatrics, Fazle Omar Hospital, from January to December 2012. Methodology: All patients from birth to 16 years age, who presented in Fazle- Omar hospital, Rabwah from January to December 2012 were included in this study. Hundred patients with other febrile illnesses were taken as control. Full blood counts were checked by Madonic CA 620 analyzer. Name, age, sex, weight, platelet counts. MPV, PDW, any evidence of bleeding, outcome of cases included in this study and taken as control were recorded on data sheets. Results: One hundred and forty-two patients were included in this study. There was no incidence of death or active bleeding. Median platelet count was 109000/mm3. Thrombocytopenia was present in 108 (76.1%) patients. Severe thrombocytopenia was present in 10(7%) patients. Minimum count was 27000/mm3 and maximum was 341000/mm3. Platelet counts of control group was significantly more as compared with study group.(p<.001) Median MPV was 8.70. Minimum value was 6.40 and maximum was 11.90. MPV of study group was significantly more than control group.(p<.001) Median PDW was 11.30. Minimum value was 8.5 and maximum was 16.70. There was no difference between PDW of study and control groups (p=0.246). Conclusions: Thrombocytopenia is a common complication among pediatric cases of vivax malaria. MPV of cases of vivax malaria is higher than control group.

Keywords: malaria vivax, platelet, mean platelet volume, thrombocytopenia

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Reva Sharan Thakur, Mrinalini Tiwari, Jyoti das

Abstract:

Cerebral malaria-associated over expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines ultimately results in the up-regulation of adhesion molecules in the brain endothelium leading to sequestration of mature parasitized RBCs in the brain. The high-parasitic load subsequently results in increased mortality or development of neurological symptoms within a week of infection. Studies in the human and experimental cerebral malaria have implicated the breakdown of the integrity of blood-brain barrier during the lethal course of infection, cerebral dysfunction, and fatal organ pathologies that result in multi-organ failure. In the present study, using Plasmodium berghei Anka as a mouse model and in vitro conditions, we have investigated the effect of MSCs to attenuate cerebral malaria pathogenesis by diminishing the effect of inflammation altered organ morphology, reduced parasitemia, and increased survival of the mice. MSCs are also validated for their role in preventing BBB dysfunction and reducing malarial toxins. It was observed that administration of MSCs significantly reduced parasitemia and increased survival in Pb A infected mice. It was further demonstrated that MSCs play a significant role in reversing neurological complexities associated with cerebral malaria. Infusion of MSCs in infected mice decreased hemozoin deposition; oedema, and haemorrhagic lesions in vascular organs. MSCs administration also preserved the integrity of the blood-brain barrier and reduced neural inflammation. Taken together, our results demonstrate the potential of MSCs as an emerging anti-malarial candidate.

Keywords: cerebral malaria, mesenchymal stem cells, erythropoesis, cell death

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Tiah Rachmatiah, Subaryanti

Abstract:

Plants of Lauraceae family are known to contain many chemical compounds which have potential bioactivity such as alkaloids, flavonoids, lactones, terpenes, etc. Actinodaphne macrophylla and Nectandra angustifolia are two species from Lauraceae. A previous study on the crude alkaloidal extract from the bark of Act. macrophylla and n-hexane extract from the bark of N. angustifolia showed antiplasmodial activity against Plasmodium falciparum. The study was continued to find antiplasmodial active compounds from the two extracts. The materials were obtained from Bogor Botanical Garden, West Java, Indonesia. Crude alkaloidal extract of Act. macrophylla was prepared by maceration in dichloromethane after moistened with NH4OH 25% and n-hexane extract of N. angustifolia was prepared by maceration in n-hexane. A major compound was isolated by column chromatography using silica gel and a mixture of CH2Cl2 and methanol as a gradient solvent system for the alkaloidal extract and mixture of n-hexane and ethyl acetate for n-hexane extract. Fine white needle crystals were obtained from the alkaloidal extract and rod crystals from n-hexane extract. Molecular structure of the compounds was determined by analysis of spectra of NMR, IR, MS and compared by references. In vitro bioactivity test of the compound was performed against Plasmodium falciparum. The results showed that the bark of Act. macrophylla contained an aporphine alkaloid, actinodaphnine, that had activity against P. falciparum with IC50 value of 0.095 µg/mL and the bark of N. angustifolia contained a lignan compound, sesamine, with IC50 of 0.122 µg/mL.

Keywords: actinodaphne macrophylla, alkaloid, antiplasmodial, lauraceae, lignan, nectandra angustifolia

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Tacho Rubby Kong

Abstract:

Community health workers’ performances are known to influence members’ behaviours and practices while translating policies into service delivery. However, little remains known about the extent to which this remains true within interventions aimed at addressing malaria burden in low-resource settings like Cameroon. The objective of this study was to examine the health workers’ performance and their influence on the adoption of strategies to address the malaria burden at a subnational level health system in Cameroon. A qualitative exploratory design was adopted on a purposively selected sample of 18 key informants. The study was conducted in Konye health district among sub-national health systems, managers, health facility in-charges, and frontline community health workers. Data was collected using semi-structured interview guides in a face-to-face interview with respondents. The analysis adopted a thematic approach utilising journals, credible authors, and peer review articles for data management. Participants acknowledged that workplace networks were influential during the implementation of policies to address malaria. The influence exerted was in form of linkage with other services, caution, and advice regarding strict adherence to policy recommendations, perhaps reflective of the level of trust in providers’ ability to adhere to policy provisions. At the district health management level and among non-state actors, support in perceived areas of weak performance in policy implementation was observed. In addition, timely initiation of contact and subsequent referral was another aspect where community health workers exerted influence while translating policies to address the malaria burden. While the level of support from among network peers was observed to influence community health workers’ adoption and implementation of strategies to address the malaria burden, different mechanisms triggered subsequent response and level of adherence to recommended policy aspects. Drawing from the elicited responses, it was infer that community health workers’ performance influence the direction and extent of success in policy implementation to address the malaria burden at the subnational level.

Keywords: subnational, community, malaria, strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Deepika Saini, Sandeep Jain, Ajay Kumar

Abstract:

The quinoline scaffold is one of the most widely studied in the discovery of derivatives with various heterocyclic moieties due to its potential antimalarial activities. In the present study, a chalcone series of quinoline derivatives clubbed with pyrazole were synthesized to evaluate their antimalarial property by in vitro schizont maturation inhibition assay against both chloroquine sensitive, 3D7 and chloroquine resistant, RKL9 strain of Plasmodium falciparum. Further, top five compounds were studied for in vivo preclinical study for antimalarial potential against P. berghei in Swiss albino mice. To understand the mechanism of synthesized analogues, they were screened computationally by molecular docking techniques. Compounds were docked into the active site of a protein receptor, Plasmodium falciparum Cysteine Protease Falcipain-2. The compounds were successfully synthesized, and structural confirmation was performed by FTIR, 1H-NMR, mass spectrometry and elemental analysis. In vitro study suggested that the compounds 5b, 5g, 5l, 5s and 5u possessed best antimalarial activity and further tested for in vivo screening. Compound 5u (CH₃ on both rings) with EC₅₀ 0.313 & 0.801 µg/ml against CQ-S & CQ-R strains of P. falciparum respectively and 78.01% suppression of parasitemia. The molecular docking studies of the compounds helped in understanding the mechanism of action against falcipain-2. The present study reveals the binding signatures of the synthesized ligands within the active site of the protein, and it explains the results from in vitro study in their EC₅₀ values and percentage parasitemia.

Keywords: antimalarial activity, chalcone, docking, quinoline

Procedia PDF Downloads 409

Authors: David Segun Adeniyi, Tongvwam P. J., Wekpe S., Owolagba F. E., Ofuche E., Samuels J. O., Okonkwo P.

Abstract:

Background: Pediatrics HIV viral suppression remains a major challenge across Africa. In this study, we sought to establish the relationship between AMP and sustained plasma HIV viremia among a population of pediatric clients on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART). We also seek to determine the prevalence of AMP among the study population. Methods: 180 pediatrics clients on ART at four (4) Comprehensive Hospitals in Jos, Nigeria, participated in this study between the months of October to December 2022. The mean age of the study participants was 13 years. Venous blood was drawn from the participants after consent was sought, and ethical approval was obtained from the Plateau State Specialist Hospital (PSSH) Research and Ethics Committee. All samples were screened for AMP using the CareStart® HRP2 Malaria kit. The Absolute and % CD4 values of the clients were obtained using the BD Presto® CD4 Analyzer. The separated plasma samples were assayed for HIV viral load using the Roche Cobas C4800® system. Obtained data were analyzed using simple descriptive statistics. Results: From the 180 participants in this study, 12.8% (23) have AMP. 90.6% (163) were virally suppressed (<1000 copies/ml), while 9.4% (17) were virally unsuppressed (>1000 copies/ml). 11.7% (19/163) of the virally suppressed population have AMP, with mean absolute and % CD4 values of 648 and 31%, respectively. The virally suppressed population without AMP has mean absolute and % CD4 values of 719 and 32%, respectively. 24% (4/17) of the virally unsuppressed population have AMP, with mean absolute and % CD4 values of 514 and 26%, respectively. The virally unsuppressed population without AMP has mean absolute and % CD4 values of 292 and 16%, respectively. Conclusion: Our study shows that there is a high prevalence of AMP among the study populations (11.7% and 24%, respectively). The high prevalence of AMP among the virally unsuppressed with mean absolute and % CD4 values of 514 and 26% alludes to the fact that malaria co-infection with HIV fosters a dysregulated immune complex response which favors an increased HIV plasma viremia. We thus recommend the routine use of Malaria IPT in pediatric HIV clients.

Keywords: pediatrics, HIV, Malaria, viral suppression

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Surachart Koyadun

Abstract:

Introduction: Plasmodium knowlesi (P. knowlesi) malaria is a zoonotic disease that is classified as type 5 of human malaria. Commonly found in macaques (Macaca fascicularis) and (Macaca nemestrina), P. knowlesi is capable of resulting in both uncomplicated and severe malaria in humans. Situation of P. knowlesi malaria in Phang-Nga province for the past 3 years from 2020 – 2022 revealed no case report in 2020, however, a total of 14 cases had been reported in 2021 - 2022. This research aimed to 1) study the epidemiology of P. knowlesi, 2) examine the clinical manifestations of P. knowlesi patients, 3) analyze the ecology and entomology of P. knowlesi, and 4) analyze the diagnosis and treatment of P. knowlesi. Method: This research was a retrospective descriptive study/case report. The study was conducted in 14 patients with P. knowlesi malaria between 2021 and 2022 in 4 districts of Phang-Nga Province, Thailand including Thapput, Kapong, Takuapa and Khuraburi. Results: The study subjects of P. knowlesi malaria were all males. Most of them were working age groups as farmers and worked in forest or plantation areas. All had no history of blood transfusions. Most of the patients did not use mosquito nets and had a history of camping in the forest prior to the onset of fever. An analysis of all 14 sources of infection unveiled the area is home to macaques, and that area has detected Anopheles mosquito, which is the carrier of the disease. Majority of them got sick in the dry season of Thailand (December-April). The main symptoms brought to the hospital were fever, chills, headache, body aches. Laboratory findings on the first day of diagnosis were as follows: The white blood cell count was found within the normal range. In the proportion of white blood cells, eosinophils were found to be slightly higher than normal. Slight anemia was found on early examination. The platelet count was found to be below normal in all cases. Severely low platelet count (2,000 cells/mm3) was found in severe cases with multiple complications. No patient was found dead but 85.7% of complications were found, with acute renal failure being the most common. Patients with delayed diagnosis and treatment of malaria (inaccurate diagnosis or late access to the hospital) had the highest severity and complications than those who had seen the doctor since the first 3-4 days of illness or the screening of symptoms and risk history by the malaria clinic staff at vector-borne disease control unit. Conclusion and Recommendation: P. knowlesi malaria is an emerging infectious disease transmitted from animals to humans. There are challenges in epidemiology, entomology, ecology for effective surveillance, prevention and control. Early diagnosis and treatment would reduce complications and prevent death.

Keywords: malaria, plasmodium knowlesi, epidemiology, ecology, entomology, diagnosis, treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

Abstract:

Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Olusola Omolola Olafuyi, Michael Coleman, Raj Kumar Singh Badhan

Abstract:

Introduction: Malaria in pregnancy has morbidity and mortality implication on both mother and unborn child. Piperaquine (PQ) based antimalarial treatment is emerging as a choice antimalarial for pregnant women in the face of resistance to current antimalarial treatment recommendation in pregnancy. Physiological and biochemical changes in pregnant women may affect the pharmacokinetics of the antimalarial drug in these. In malaria endemic regions other infectious diseases like HIV/AIDs are prevalent. Pregnant women who are co-infected with malaria and HIV/AID are at even more greater risk of death not only due to complications of the diseases but also due to drug-drug interactions (DDIs) between antimalarials (AMT) and antiretroviral (ARVs). In this study, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling was used to investigate the effect of physiological and biochemical changes on the impact of ARV mediated DDIs in pregnant women in three countries. Method: A PBPK model for PQ was developed on SimCYP® using published physicochemical and pharmacokinetic data of PQ from literature, this was validated in three customized population groups from Thailand, Sudan and Papua New Guinea with clinical data. Validation of PQ model was also done in presence of interaction with efavirenz (pre-validated on SimCYP®). Different albumin levels and pregnancy stages was simulated in the presence of interaction with standard doses of efavirenz and ritonavir. PQ day 7 concentration of 30ng/ml was used as the efficacy endpoint for PQ treatment.. Results: The median day 7 concentration of PQ remained virtually consistent throughout pregnancy and were satisfactory across the three population groups ranging from 26-34.1ng/ml; this implied the efficacy of PQ throughout pregnancy. DDI interaction with ritonavir and efavirenz resulted in modest effect on the day 7 concentrations of PQ with AUCratio ranging from 0.56-0.8 and 1.64-1.79 for efavirenz and ritonavir respectively over 10-40 gestational weeks, however, a reduction in human serum albumin level reflective of severe malaria resulted in significantly reduced the number of subjects attaining the PQ day 7 concentration in the presence of both DDIs. The model demonstrated that the DDI between PQ and ARV in pregnant women with different malaria severities can alter the pharmacokinetic of PQ.

Keywords: antiretroviral, malaria, piperaquine, pregnancy, physiologically-based pharmacokinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Fouzia Khanam, Tridib Chowdhury, Belal Hossain, Sajedur Rahman, Mahfuzar Rahman

Abstract:

Introduction: Over the last decades, the world has achieved a noticeable success in preventing malaria. Nevertheless, malaria, a vector-borne infectious disease, remains a major public health burden globally as well as in Bangladesh. To achieve the goal of eliminating malaria, BRAC, a leading organization of Bangladesh in collaboration with government, is distributing free LLIN to the 13 endemic districts of the country. The study was conducted with the aim of assessing the gap between coverage, access, and utilization of LLIN among the people of the 13 malaria endemic districts of Bangladesh. Methods: This baseline study employed a community cross-sectional design triangulated with qualitative methods to measure households’ ownership, access and use of 13 endemic districts. A multistage cluster random sampling was employed for the quantitative part and for qualitative part a purposive sampling strategy was done. Thus present analysis included 2640 households encompassing a total of 14475 populations. Data were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire through one on one face-to-face interview with respondents. All analyses were performed using STATA (Version 13.0). For the qualitative part participant observation, in-depth interview, focus group discussion, key informant interview and informal interview was done to gather the contextual data. Findings: According to our study, 99.8% of households possessed at least one-bed net in both study areas. 77.4% households possessed at least two LLIN and 43.2% households had access to LLIN for all the members. So the gap between coverage and access is 34%. 91.8% people in the 13 districts and 95.1% in Chittagong Hill Tracts areas reported having had slept under a bed net the night before interviewed. And despite the relatively low access, in 77.8% of households, all the members were used the LLIN the previous night. This higher utilization compared to access might be due to the increased awareness among the community people regarding LLIN uses. However, among those people with sufficient access to LLIN, 6% of them still did not use the LLIN which reflects the behavioral failure that needs to be addressed. The major reasons for not using LLIN, identified by both qualitative and quantitative findings, were insufficient access, sleeping or living outside the home, migration, perceived low efficacy of LLIN, fear of physical side effects or feeling uncomfortable. Conclusion: Given that LLIN access and use was a bit short of the targets, it conveys important messages to the malaria control program. Targeting specific population segments and groups for achieving expected LLIN coverage is very crucial. And also, addressing behavior failure by well-designed behavioral change interventions is mandatory.

Keywords: long lasting insecticide net, malaria, malaria control programme, World Health Organisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: J. B. Minari, O. B. Oloyede

Abstract:

Polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMNs) play a crucial role in a variety of infections caused by bacteria, fungi, and parasites. Indeed, the involvement of PMNs in host defence against Plasmodium falciparum is well documented both in vitro and in vivo. Many of the antimalarial drugs such as chloroquine used in the treatment of human malaria significantly reduce the immune response of the host in vitro and in vivo. Myeloperoxidase is the most abundant enzyme found in the polymorphonuclear neutrophil which plays a crucial role in its function. This study was carried out to investigate the effect of chloroquine on the enzyme. In investigating the effects of the drug on myeloperoxidase, the influence of concentration, pH, partition ratio estimation and kinetics of inhibition were studied. This study showed that chloroquine is concentration-dependent inhibitor of myeloperoxidase with an IC50 of 0.03 mM. Partition ratio estimation showed that 40 enzymatic turnover cycles are required for complete inhibition of myeloperoxidase in the presence of chloroquine. The influence of pH on the effect of chloroquine on the enzyme showed significant inhibition of myeloperoxidase at physiological pH. The kinetic inhibition studies showed that chloroquine caused a non-competitive inhibition with an inhibition constant Ki of 0.27mM. The results obtained from this study shows that chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of myeloperoxidase and it is capable of inactivating the enzyme. It is therefore considered that the inhibition of myeloperoxidase in the presence of chloroquine as revealed in this study may partly explain the impairment of polymorphonuclear neutrophil and consequent immunosuppression of the host defence system against secondary infections.

Keywords: myeloperoxidase, chloroquine, inhibition, neutrophil, immune

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Opara Monica, Suriani Ismail, Ahmad Iqmer Nashriq Mohd Nazan

Abstract:

The true magnitude of the mortality and morbidity attributable to malaria worldwide is, at best, a scientific guess, although it is not disputable that the greatest burden is in sub-Saharan Africa. Those at highest risk are children younger than 5 years and pregnant women, particularly primigravidae. Nationally, malaria remains the third leading cause of death and is still considered a major public health problem. Therefore, this study is aimed to assess the effectiveness of health education intervention on insecticide-treated net use and its practices among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics. Materials and Methods: This study will be an intervention study with two arms double parallel randomized controlled trial (blinded) to be conducted in 3 stages. The first stage will develop health belief model (HBM) program, while in the second stage, pregnant women will be recruited, assessed (baseline data), randomized into two arms of the study, and follow-up for six months. The third stage will evaluate the impact of the intervention on HBM and disseminate the findings. Data will be collected with the use of a structured questionnaire which will contain validated tools. The main outcome measurement will be the treatment effect using HBM, while data will be analysed using SPSS, version 22. Discussion: The study will contribute to the existing knowledge on hospital-based care programs for pregnant women in developing countries where the literature is scanty. It will generally give insight into the importance of HBM measurement in interventional studies on malaria and other related infectious diseases in this setting.

Keywords: malaria, health education, insecticide-treated nets, sub-Saharan Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Hari Bezwada, Michelle Cheon, Ryan Divan, Hannah Escritor, Michelle Kagramian, Isha Korgaonkar, Maya MacAdams, Udgita Pamidigantam, Richard Pilny, Eleanor Race, Angadh Singh, Nathan Zhang, LeeAnn Nguyen, Fina Liotta

Abstract:

Malaria is a deadly disease caused by the Plasmodium parasite, which continues to develop resistance to current antimalarial drugs. In this research project, the effectiveness of numerous thiazole derivatives was explored in inhibiting the PfPKG, a crucial part of the Plasmodium life cycle. This study involved the synthesis of six thiazole-derived amides to inhibit the PfPKG pathway. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and Infrared (IR) spectroscopy were used to characterize these compounds. Furthermore, AutoDocking software was used to predict binding affinities of these thiazole-derived amides in silico. In silico, compound 6 exhibited the highest predicted binding affinity to PfPKG, while compound 5 had the lowest affinity. Compounds 1-4 displayed varying degrees of predicted binding affinity. In-vitro, it was found that compound 4 had the best percent inhibition, while compound 5 had the worst percent inhibition. Overall, all six compounds had weak inhibition (approximately 30-39% at 10 μM), but these results provide a foundation for future drug discovery experiments.

Keywords: Medicinal Chemistry, Malaria, drug discovery, PfPKG, Thiazole, Plasmodium

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Luphumlo Ncanywa, Paul Watts

Abstract:

Malaria is a disease that kills approximately one million people annually. Children and pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa lost their lives due to malaria. Malaria continues to be one of the major causes of death, especially in poor countries in Africa. Decrease the burden of malaria and save lives is very essential. There is a major concern about malaria parasites being able to develop resistance towards antimalarial drugs. People are still dying due to lack of medicine affordability in less well-off countries in the world. If more people could receive treatment by reducing the cost of drugs, the number of deaths in Africa could be massively reduced. There is a shortage of pharmaceutical manufacturing capability within many of the countries in Africa. However one has to question how Africa would actually manufacture drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients or medicines developed within these research programs. It is quite likely that such manufacturing would be outsourced overseas, hence increasing the cost of production and potentially limiting the full benefit of the original research. As a result the last few years has seen major interest in developing more effective and cheaper technology for manufacturing generic pharmaceutical products. Micro-reactor technology (MRT) is an emerging technique that enables those working in research and development to rapidly screen reactions utilizing continuous flow, leading to the identification of reaction conditions that are suitable for usage at a production level. This emerging technique will be used to develop antimalarial drugs. It is this system flexibility that has the potential to reduce both the time was taken and risk associated with transferring reaction methodology from research to production. Using an approach referred to as scale-out or numbering up, a reaction is first optimized within the laboratory using a single micro-reactor, and in order to increase production volume, the number of reactors employed is simply increased. The overall aim of this research project is to develop and optimize synthetic process of antimalarial drugs in the continuous processing. This will provide a step change in pharmaceutical manufacturing technology that will increase the availability and affordability of antimalarial drugs on a worldwide scale, with a particular emphasis on Africa in the first instance. The research will determine the best chemistry and technology to define the lowest cost manufacturing route to pharmaceutical products. We are currently developing a method to synthesize Lumefantrine in continuous flow using batch process as bench mark. Lumefantrine is a dichlorobenzylidine derivative effective for the treatment of various types of malaria. Lumefantrine is an antimalarial drug used with artemether for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria. The results obtained when synthesizing Lumefantrine in a batch process are transferred into a continuous flow process in order to develop an even better and reproducible process. Therefore, development of an appropriate synthetic route for Lumefantrine is significant in pharmaceutical industry. Consequently, if better (and cheaper) manufacturing routes to antimalarial drugs could be developed and implemented where needed, it is far more likely to enable antimalarial drugs to be available to those in need.

Keywords: antimalarial, flow, lumefantrine, synthesis

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Johanna Bapela, Heino Heyman, Marion Meyer

Abstract:

Regardless of the significant advances accomplished in reducing the burden of malaria and other tropical diseases in recent years, malaria remains a major cause of mortality in endemic countries. This is especially the case in sub-Saharan Africa where 99% of the estimated global malaria deaths occurs on an annual basis. The emergence of resistant Plasmodium species and the lack of diversified chemotherapeutic agents provide the rationale for bioprospecting for antiplasmodial scaffolds. Crude extracts from twenty indigenous antimalarial plant species were screened for antimalarial activity and then subjected to 1H NMR-based metabolomic analysis. Ten plant extracts exhibited significant in vitro antiplasmodial activity (IC50 ≤ 5 µg/ml). The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the acquired 1H NMR spectra could not separate the analyzed plant extracts according to the detected antiplasmodial bioactivity. Application of supervised Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures–Discriminant Analysis (OPLS-DA) to the 1H NMR profiles resulted in a discrimination pattern that could be correlated to bioactivity. A contribution plot generated from the OPLS-DA scoring plot illustrated the classes of compounds responsible for the observed grouping. Given the preliminary in vitro results, Tabernaemontana elegans Stapf. (Apocynaceae) and Vangueria infausta Burch. subsp. infausta (Rubiaceae) were subjected to further phytochemical investigations. Two indole alkaloids, dregamine and tabernaemontanine possessing antiplasmodial activity were isolated from T. elegans. Two compounds were isolated from V. infausta subsp. infausta and identified as friedelin (IC50 = 3.01 µg/ml) and morindolide (IC50 = 18.5 µg/ml). While these compounds have been previously identified, this is the first account of their occurrence in the genus Vangueria and their antiplasmodial activity. Based on the results of the study, metabolomics can be used to globally identify classes of plant secondary metabolites that are responsible for antiplasmodial activity.

Keywords: ethnopharmacology, Malaria, medicinal plants, metabolomics

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Nisha Budhwar, Sunita Daniel

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyse the stability of the SEIR model of malaria with infective immigrants which was recently formulated by the authors. The model consists of an SEIR model for the human population and SI Model for the mosquitoes. Susceptible humans become infected after they are bitten by infectious mosquitoes and move on to the Exposed, Infected and Recovered classes respectively. The susceptible mosquito becomes infected after biting an infected person and remains infected till death. We calculate the reproduction number R0 using the next generation method and then discuss about the stability of the equilibrium points. We use the Lyapunov function to show the global stability of the equilibrium points.

Keywords: equilibrium points, exposed, global stability, infective immigrants, Lyapunov function, recovered, reproduction number, susceptible

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Charlene N. T. Mfangnia, Henri E. Z. Tonnang, Berge Tsanou, Jeremy Herren

Abstract:

Microsporidia MB is a recently discovered symbiont capable of blocking the transmission of Plasmodium from mosquitoes to humans. The symbiont can spread both horizontally and vertically among the mosquito population. This dual transmission gives the symbiont the ability to invade the mosquito population. The replacement of the mosquito population by the population of symbiont-infected mosquitoes then appears as a promising strategy for malaria control. In this context, the present study uses differential equations to model the transmission dynamics of Microsporidia MB in the population of female Anopheles mosquitoes. Long-term propagation scenarios of the symbiont, such as extinction, persistence or total infection, are obtained through the determination of the target and basic reproduction numbers, the equilibria, and the study of their stability. The stability is illustrated numerically, and the contribution of vertical and horizontal transmission in the spread of the symbiont is assessed. Data obtained from laboratory experiments are then used to explain the low prevalence observed in nature. The study also shows that the male death rate, the mating rate and the attractiveness of MB-positive mosquitoes are the factors that most influence the transmission of the symbiont. In addition, the introduction of temperature and the study of bifurcations show the significant influence of the environmental condition in the propagation of Microsporidia MB. This finding proves the necessity of taking into account environmental variables for the potential establishment of the symbiont in a new area.

Keywords: differential equations, stability analysis, malaria, microsporidia MB, horizontal transmission, vertical transmission, numerical illustration

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Fatima Abu Baker Hamad

Abstract:

Anaemia is a public health problem that affects population in both rich and poor countries. Although the primary cause is iron deficiency, it is seldom present in isolation. More frequently it coexists with a number of other causes, such as malaria, parasitic infection, nutritional deficiencies and hemoglobin apathies. That was the people in Sudan suffered from it .Anaemia has a high prevalence in patients with cancer. The aim of this study was to find the incidence of anaemia in new cases of Sudanese female breast patients attending the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Gezira University, Sudan. The study was performed on 250 female breast cancer patients, the age range was (20-70) years and the mean age was 45.99±0.82. The hemoglobin level was measured by SYSMEX-KX2lM.As result 144(58.8) of patients presented with anaemia, between moderate to severe. Forty four (17.6%) of the patients were found to be under weight, 31 of them were anaemic. While 105(42%) of the patients were overweight and obese, 52 of them were anaemic. The incidence of anaemia in newly diagnosed Sudanese female breast cancer patients presented at NCI is association presentation with advance disease stage. Also it is related to age, state of nutrition and social economic factors. Early cancer detection which leads to effective treatment and reduced complication of diseases included anaemia is recommended.

Keywords: anaemia, breast cancer, stages of disease, malaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: Ana Paula S. A. Correa, Allan K. R. Galardo, Luana A. Lima, Talita F. Sobral, Josiane N. Muller, Jessica F. S. Barroso, Nercy V. R. Furtado, Ednaldo C. Rêgo., Jose B. P. Lima

Abstract:

Malaria is a public health problem in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. Among the integrated approaches for anopheline control, the Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) remains one of the main tools in the basic strategy applied in the Amazonian States, where the National Malaria Control Program currently uses one of the insecticides from the pyrethroid class, the Etofenprox WP. Understanding the residual efficacy of insecticides on different surfaces is essential to determine the spray cycles, in order to maintain a rational use and to avoid product waste. The aim of this study was to evaluate the residual efficacy of Etofenprox - VECTRON ® 20 WP on surfaces of Unplastered Cement (UC) and Unpainted Wood (UW) on panels, in field, and in semi-field evaluation of Brazil’s Amapa State. The evaluation criteria used was the cone bioassay test, following the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended method, using plastic cones and female mosquitos of Anopheles sp. The tests were carried out in laboratory panels, semi-field evaluation in a “test house” built in the Macapa municipality, and in the field in 20 houses, being ten houses per surface type (UC and UW), in an endemic malaria area in Mazagão’s municipality. The residual efficacy was measured from March to September 2017, starting one day after the spraying, repeated monthly for a period of six months. The UW surface presented higher residual efficacy than the UC. In fact, the UW presented a residual efficacy of the insecticide throughout the period of this study with a mortality rate above 80% in the panels (= 95%), in the "test house" (= 86%) and in field houses ( = 87%). On the UC surface it was observed a mortality decreased in all the tests performed, with a mortality rate of 45, 47 and 29% on panels, semi-field and in field, respectively; however, the residual efficacy ≥ 80% only occurred in the first evaluation after the 24-hour spraying bioassay in the "test house". Thus, only the UW surface meets the specifications of the World Health Organization Pesticide Evaluation Scheme (WHOPES) regarding the duration of effective action (three to six months). To sum up, the insecticide residual efficacy presented variability on the different surfaces where it was sprayed. Although the IRS with Etofenprox WP was efficient on UW surfaces, and it can be used in spraying cycles at 4-month intervals, it is important to consider the diversity of houses in the Brazilian Legal Amazon, in order to implement alternatives for vector control, including the evaluation of new products or different formulations types for insecticides.

Keywords: Anopheles, vector control, insecticide, bioassay

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Manas Kotepui, Kwuntida Uthaisar, Phiman Thirarattanasunthon, Bhukdee PhunPhuech, Nuoil Phiwklam

Abstract:

Introduction: Malaria due to Plasmodium vivax has placed huge burdens on the health, longevity, and general prosperity of large sections of the human population. This study aimed at prospectively collecting information on the clinical profile of Plasmodium vivax from subjects acutely infected with P. vivax residing in some of the highest malaria transmission regions in Thailand. Methods: A retrospective study of malaria cases, hospitalized between 2013 and 2015 was performed. Clinical characteristics, diagnosis, and parasitological results on admission, age, and gender were mined from medical records at Phop Phra Hospital located in endemic areas of Tak Province, Thailand. Venous blood samples were collected at the time of admission to the hospital to determine the present of parasite and also parasite count by thick and thin film examination, and also Complete blood count (CBC) parameters. Results: Results showed that patients infected with Plasmodium vivax (276 cases) had a high monocyte count (mean=390 cells/µL) during initial stage of infection and continuously lower during later stage (any stage with gametocyte, mean=230 cells/µL) of infection (P value=0.021) whereas, patients infected with Plasmodium vivax had a low basophil count (mean=20 cells/µL) during initial stage of infection and continuously higher during later stage of infection (mean at stage with gametocyte=70 cells/µL) (P value=0.033). In addition, patients with more than one stage infection tend to have lower lymphocyte count (mean=1180 cells/µL) than patients with only one stage infection (mean=1350 cells/µL)(P value=0.011) whereas, patients with more than one stage infection tend to have lower basophil count (mean=60 cells/µL) than patients with only one stage infection (mean=80 cells/µL) (P value=0.01). Conclusion: This study indicated that patients infected with Plasmodium vivax had high monocyte count and low basophil count during initial stage of infection which was continuously lower during later stage of infection. Patients with more than one stage infection tend to have lower lymphocyte count than patients with only one stage infection whereas, patients with more than one stage infection tend to have lower basophil count than patients with only one stage infection. This information contributes to better understanding of pathological characteristic of Plasmodium vivax infection.

Keywords: plasmodium vivax, Thailand, asexual erythrocytic stages, hematological parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Faith-Michael E. Uzoka, Boluwaji A. Akinnuwesi, Taiwo Amoo, Flora Aladi, Stephen Fashoto, Moses Olaniyan, Joseph Osuji

Abstract:

The overarching aim of this study is to develop a soft-computing system for the differential diagnosis of tropical diseases. These conditions are of concern to health bodies, physicians, and the community at large because of their mortality rates, and difficulties in early diagnosis due to the fact that they present with symptoms that overlap, and thus become ‘confusable’. We report on the first phase of our study, which focuses on the development of a fuzzy cognitive map model for early differential diagnosis of tropical diseases. We used malaria as a case disease to show the effectiveness of the FCM technology as an aid to the medical practitioner in the diagnosis of tropical diseases. Our model takes cognizance of manifested symptoms and other non-clinical factors that could contribute to symptoms manifestations. Our model showed 85% accuracy in diagnosis, as against the physicians’ initial hypothesis, which stood at 55% accuracy. It is expected that the next stage of our study will provide a multi-disease, multi-symptom model that also improves efficiency by utilizing a decision support filter that works on an algorithm, which mimics the physician’s diagnosis process.

Keywords: medical diagnosis, tropical diseases, fuzzy cognitive map, decision support filters, malaria differential diagnosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Seyed Hassan Moosa-kazemi, Hassan Vatandoost

Abstract:

Malaria, Dirofilaria immitis (dog heart worm), and D. repens (dirofilariasis), which are transmitted by mosquitoes, have been reported in Iran. The Iranian mosquito fauna includes seven genera, 65 species, and three subspecies. Aedes albopictus has been reported since. West Nile, Sindbis, Dengue, Japanese encephalitis viruses, and the nematode Setaria (setariasis) has been reported in the country but there are no information about their vectors in Iran. Iran is malaria elimination phase. Insecticides residual spraying (IRS), distributed of insecticides long lasting treated nets (ITNs), fogging, release of larvivours fishes and Bacillus thuringiensis, chemical larviciding, as well as case finding and manipulation and modification of breeding places carried out thought the IVM program in the country. Prolonged exposure to insecticides over several generations of the vectors, develop resistance, a capacity to survive contact with insecticides. However, use of insecticides in agriculture has often been implicated as contributing to resistance in mosquito’s vectors. Resistance of mosquitoes to some insecticides has been documented just within a few years after the insecticides were introduced. Some enzymes such as monooxygenases, esterases and glutathione S-transferases have been considered as a reason for resistance to pyrethroid insecticides. In conclusion, regarding to documented resistance and tolerance of mosquitoes vectors to some insecticides, resistance management is suggested by using new insecticide with novel mode of action.

Keywords: control, Iran, resistance, vector

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: J. Naalamle Amissah, Dorcas Osei‐Safo, C. M. Asare, Benjamin Missah‐Assihene, Eric. Y. Danquah, Ivan Addae‐Mensah

Abstract:

Medicinal plants serve as a reservoir of active ingredients for the treatment of common ailments such as cancer, malaria and diabetes. With the recent wave of health consciousness and reliance on plant based medicines, the demand for medicinal plants has increased considerably. This surge in medicinal plant use has raised great concern amongst key players (herbalist, collectors, conservationist and researchers) along the value chain about the sustainability of the raw material. The over reliance on wild crafting as a means to obtain the raw material spells doom for several of Africa’s native medicinal plant species. In this study domestication protocols for the cultivation of Cryptolepis sanguinolenta (CS), a medicinal plant used in the treatment of malaria were developed. Initial surveys were conducted, using questionnaires comprising of open and close ended questions, to gather information that would inform the domestication and cultivation of the species. A field study was then conducted to determine the plant’s cropping cycle and the effect of staking and plant age on the active ingredient (cryptolepine) concentration in its roots. Results of the survey confirmed the demand for the raw material and threw more light on the harvesting methods and intensity of CS collection from the wild. Cryptolepine concentration was found to be highest (~1.84 mg/100 mg of root material) at 289 days after planting (DAP) which coincided with the peak of root dry weight (52.8 g), signifying the best time for root harvest. Staking was found to be important for seed production. The first 105 DAP were characterized by low yields of root dry weight (13.5 g), followed by a period of rapid growth in which the root dry weight increased almost linearly until 289 DAP. Although dry matter partitioned to the vines increased towards the end of the experimental period (60%), dry matter partitioned to the roots remained fairly constant (30%) throughout the experimental period. Cryptolepine was found to increase as the plant aged and the practice of staking CS promoted pod formation. A suitable cropping cycle for the cultivation of CS was also developed.

Keywords: domestication, staking, conservation, wild harvesting

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Imran Hashmi, Sipkaduwa Arachchige Sashika Sureni Wickramasooriya

Abstract:

Gene-drive technology has emerged as a promising tool for disease control by influencing the population dynamics of disease-carrying organisms. Various gene drive mechanisms, derived from global laboratory experiments, aim to strategically manage and prevent the spread of targeted diseases. One prominent strategy involves population replacement, wherein genetically modified mosquitoes are introduced to replace the existing local wild population. To enhance our understanding and aid in the design of effective release strategies, we employ a comprehensive mathematical model. The utilized approach employs agent-based modeling, enabling the consideration of individual mosquito attributes and flexibility in parameter manipulation. Through the integration of an agent-based model and a meta-population spatial approach, the dynamics of gene drive mosquito spreading in a released site are simulated. The model's outcomes offer valuable insights into future population dynamics, providing guidance for the development of informed release strategies. This research significantly contributes to the ongoing discourse on the responsible and effective implementation of gene drive technology for disease vector control.

Keywords: gene drive, agent-based modeling, disease-carrying organisms, malaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Taruna Katyal Arora, Geeta Kumari, Hari Shankar, Neelima Mishra

Abstract:

Substandard and counterfeit antimalarials is a major problem in malaria endemic areas. The availability of counterfeit/ substandard medicines is not only decreasing the efficacy in patients, but it is also one of the contributing factors for developing antimalarial drug resistance. Owing to this, a pilot study was conducted to survey quality of drugs collected from different malaria endemic areas of India. Artesunate+Sulphadoxine-Pyrimethamine (AS+SP), Artemether-Lumefantrine (AL), Chloroquine (CQ) tablets were randomly picked from public health facilities in selected states of India. The quality of antimalarial drugs from these areas was assessed by using Global Pharma Health Fund Minilab test kit. This includes physical/visual inspection and disintegration test. Thin-layer chromatography (TLC) was carried out for semi-quantitative assessment of active pharmaceutical ingredients. A total of 45 brands, out of which 21 were for CQ, 14 for AL and 10 for AS+SP were tested from Uttar Pradesh (U.P.), Mizoram, Meghalaya and Gujrat states. One out of 45 samples showed variable disintegration and retension factor. The variable disintegration and retention factor which would have been due to substandard quality or other factors including storage. However, HPLC analysis confirms standard active pharmaceutical ingredient, but may be due to humid temperature and moisture in storage may account for the observed result.

Keywords: antimalarial medicines, counterfeit, substandard, TLC

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: Akinbo Razak Yinka, Adesanya Kehinde Kazeem, Oladokun Oluwagbenga Peter

Abstract:

Time series data are sequences of observations collected over a period of time. Such data can be used to predict health outcomes, such as disease progression, mortality, hospitalization, etc. The Statistical approach is based on mathematical models that capture the patterns and trends of the data, such as autocorrelation, seasonality, and noise, while Neural methods are based on artificial neural networks, which are computational models that mimic the structure and function of biological neurons. This paper compared both parametric and non-parametric time series models of patients treated for malaria in Maternal and Child Health Centres in Lagos State, Nigeria. The forecast methods considered linear regression, Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA and SARIMA Modeling for the parametric approach, while Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network were used for the non-parametric model. The performance of each method is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), R-squared (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as criteria to determine the accuracy of each model. The study revealed that the best performance in terms of error was found in MLP, followed by the LSTM and ARIMA models. In addition, the Bootstrap Aggregating technique was used to make robust forecasts when there are uncertainties in the data.

Keywords: ARIMA, bootstrap aggregation, MLP, LSTM, SARIMA, time-series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 75