Search results for: change point analysis
35347 Change Point Detection Using Random Matrix Theory with Application to Frailty in Elderly Individuals
Authors: Malika Kharouf, Aly Chkeir, Khac Tuan Huynh
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Detecting change points in time series data is a challenging problem, especially in scenarios where there is limited prior knowledge regarding the data’s distribution and the nature of the transitions. We present a method designed for detecting changes in the covariance structure of high-dimensional time series data, where the number of variables closely matches the data length. Our objective is to achieve unbiased test statistic estimation under the null hypothesis. We delve into the utilization of Random Matrix Theory to analyze the behavior of our test statistic within a high-dimensional context. Specifically, we illustrate that our test statistic converges pointwise to a normal distribution under the null hypothesis. To assess the effectiveness of our proposed approach, we conduct evaluations on a simulated dataset. Furthermore, we employ our method to examine changes aimed at detecting frailty in the elderly.Keywords: change point detection, hypothesis tests, random matrix theory, frailty in elderly
Procedia PDF Downloads 5335346 The Use of Sustainable Tourism, Decrease Performance Levels, and Change Management for Image Branding as a Contemporary Tool of Foreign Policy
Authors: Mehtab Alam
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Sustainable tourism practices require to improve the decreased performance levels in phases of change management for image branding. This paper addresses the innovative approach of using sustainable tourism for image branding as a contemporary tool of foreign policy. The sustainable tourism-based foreign policy promotes cultural values, green tourism, economy, and image management for the avoidance of rising global conflict. The mixed-method approach (quantitative 382 surveys, qualitative 11 interviews at saturation point) implied for the data analysis. The research finding provides the potential of using sustainable tourism by implying skills and knowledge, capacity, and personal factors of change management in improving tourism-based performance levels. It includes the valuable tourism performance role for the success of a foreign policy through sustainable tourism. Change management in tourism-based foreign policy provides the destination readiness for international engagement and curbing of climate issues through green tourism. The research recommends the impact of change management in improving the tourism-based performance levels of image branding for a coercive foreign policy. The paper’s future direction for the immediate implementation of tourism-based foreign policy is to overcome the contemporary issues of travel marketing management, green infrastructure, and cross-border regulation.Keywords: decrease performance levels, change management, sustainable tourism, image branding, foreign policy
Procedia PDF Downloads 12435345 Iron(III)-Tosylate Doped PEDOT and PEG: A Nanoscale Conductivity Study of an Electrochemical System with Biosensing Applications
Authors: Giulio Rosati, Luciano Sappia, Rossana Madrid, Noemi Rozlòsnik
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The addition of PEG of different molecular weights has important effects on the physical, electrical and electrochemical properties of iron(III)-tosylate doped PEDOT. This particular polymer can be easily spin coated over plastic discs, optimizing thickness and uniformity of the PEDOT-PEG films. The conductivity and morphological analysis of the hybrid PEDOT-PEG polymer by 4-point probe (4PP), 12-point probe (12PP), and conductive AFM (C-AFM) show strong effects of the PEG doping. Moreover, the conductive films kinetics at the nanoscale, in response to different bias voltages, change radically depending on the PEG molecular weight. The hybrid conductive films show also interesting electrochemical properties, making the PEDOT PEG doping appealing for biosensing applications both for EIS-based and amperometric affinity/catalytic biosensors.Keywords: atomic force microscopy, biosensors, four-point probe, nano-films, PEDOT
Procedia PDF Downloads 34535344 An Application of Remote Sensing for Modeling Local Warming Trend
Authors: Khan R. Rahaman, Quazi K. Hassan
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Global changes in climate, environment, economies, populations, governments, institutions, and cultures converge in localities. Changes at a local scale, in turn, contribute to global changes as well as being affected by them. Our hypothesis is built on a consideration that temperature does vary at local level (i.e., termed as local warming) in comparison to the predicted models at the regional and/or global scale. To date, the bulk of the research relating local places to global climate change has been top-down, from the global toward the local, concentrating on methods of impact analysis that use as a starting point climate change scenarios derived from global models, even though these have little regional or local specificity. Thus, our focus is to understand such trends over the southern Alberta, which will enable decision makers, scientists, researcher community, and local people to adapt their policies based on local level temperature variations and to act accordingly. Specific objectives in this study are: (i) to understand the local warming (temperature in particular) trend in context of temperature normal during the period 1961-2010 at point locations using meteorological data; (ii) to validate the data by using specific yearly data, and (iii) to delineate the spatial extent of the local warming trends and understanding influential factors to adopt situation by local governments. Existing data has brought the evidence of such changes and future research emphasis will be given to validate this hypothesis based on remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS product by NASA).Keywords: local warming, climate change, urban area, Alberta, Canada
Procedia PDF Downloads 33935343 Modeling Local Warming Trend: An Application of Remote Sensing Technique
Authors: Khan R. Rahaman, Quazi K. Hassan
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Global changes in climate, environment, economies, populations, governments, institutions, and cultures converge in localities. Changes at a local scale, in turn, contribute to global changes as well as being affected by them. Our hypothesis is built on a consideration that temperature does vary at local level (i.e., termed as local warming) in comparison to the predicted models at the regional and/or global scale. To date, the bulk of the research relating local places to global climate change has been top-down, from the global toward the local, concentrating on methods of impact analysis that use as a starting point climate change scenarios derived from global models, even though these have little regional or local specificity. Thus, our focus is to understand such trends over the southern Alberta, which will enable decision makers, scientists, researcher community, and local people to adapt their policies based on local level temperature variations and to act accordingly. Specific objectives in this study are: (i) to understand the local warming (temperature in particular) trend in context of temperature normal during the period 1961-2010 at point locations using meteorological data; (ii) to validate the data by using specific yearly data, and (iii) to delineate the spatial extent of the local warming trends and understanding influential factors to adopt situation by local governments. Existing data has brought the evidence of such changes and future research emphasis will be given to validate this hypothesis based on remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS product by NASA).Keywords: local warming, climate change, urban area, Alberta, Canada
Procedia PDF Downloads 34635342 A Bibliometric Analysis of Trends in Change Management Sciences
Authors: Thomas Lauer
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The paper aims to give an overview of change management research by using bibliometric methodology. Based on research papers of the last decade, which are listed on Research Gate, a multidimensional categorization is done. Considering categories like topic (e.g., success factors), industry, or research methodology, the development of the discipline is traced and, in a second step, confronted with external developments of the business environment, such as climate change, gen Z or COVID, to name a few. Based on these findings, a final evaluation concerning the thematical fit of previous research topics is also made, as well as a preview of likely future trends in change management sciences.Keywords: change management, bibliometrics, scientific trends, research topics
Procedia PDF Downloads 6335341 A Qualitative Exploration of the Strategic Management of Employee Resistance to Organisational Change
Authors: Muneeb Banday, Anukriti Dixit
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Change in organizations is viewed as a conversion process of the organizational functioning. One of the crucial elements of this conversion process is the employee resistance to organizational change. The existing literature on change resistance has generally treated resistance as a barrier or an opportunity for successful implementation of change. However, there is little empirical research exploring how resistance to change is managed. This may be partially due to difficulty in getting information on resistance to change. The top management does not divulge such information to avoid negative evaluation whereas employees face huge risk in sharing information related to resistance. The focus of the study is to understand how the organization under study dealt with the employee resistance to change. The conversion process is a story of how the organization went from one stage to another. We used narrative approach to change. Data was collected data through company visits and interviews. The interviews were transcribed, coded, and themes were identified. We focused on the strands that left huge scope for alternative interpretations than the dominant narrative of change prevalent in the organization. The study reveals that the top management strategically uses the legitimacy of leadership, roles of key employees, and rationality of change to manage resistance.Keywords: employee resistance, legitimacy of leadership, narrative analysis, organisational change
Procedia PDF Downloads 27435340 An Analysis of Conditions for Efficiency Gains in Large ICEs Using Cycling
Authors: Bauer Peter, Murillo Jenny
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This paper investigates the bounds of achievable fuel efficiency improvements in engines due to cycling between two operating points assuming a series hybrid configuration . It is shown that for linear bsfc dependencies (as a function of power), cycling is only beneficial if the average power needs are smaller than the power at the optimal bsfc value. Exact expressions for the fuel efficiency gains relative to the constant output power case are derived. This asymptotic analysis is then extended to the case where transient losses due to a change in the operating point are also considered. The case of the boundary bsfc trajectory where constant power application and cycling yield the same fuel consumption.is investigated. It is shown that the boundary bsfc locations of the second non-optimal operating points is hyperbolic. The analysis of the boundary case allows to evaluate whether for a particular engine, cycling can be beneficial. The introduced concepts are illustrated through a number of real world examples, i.e. large production Diesel engines in series hybrid configurations.Keywords: cycling, efficiency, bsfc, series hybrid, diesel, operating point
Procedia PDF Downloads 50435339 Experimental and Simulation Stress Strain Comparison of Hot Single Point Incremental Forming
Authors: Amar Al-Obaidi, Verena Kräusel, Dirk Landgrebe
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Induction assisted single point incremental forming (IASPIF) is a flexible method and can be simply utilized to form a high strength alloys. Due to the interaction between the mechanical and thermal properties during IASPIF an evaluation for the process is necessary to be performed analytically. Therefore, a numerical simulation was carried out in this paper. The numerical analysis was operated at both room and elevated temperatures then compared with experimental results. Fully coupled dynamic temperature displacement explicit analysis was used to simulated the hot single point incremental forming. The numerical analysis was indicating that during hot single point incremental forming were a combination between complicated compression, tension and shear stresses. As a result, the equivalent plastic strain was increased excessively by rising both the formed part depth and the heating temperature during forming. Whereas, the forming forces were decreased from 5 kN at room temperature to 0.95 kN at elevated temperature. The simulation shows that the maximum true strain was occurred in the stretching zone which was the same as in experiment.Keywords: induction heating, single point incremental forming, FE modeling, advanced high strength steel
Procedia PDF Downloads 20835338 A Simple Technique for Centralisation of Distal Femoral Nail to Avoid Anterior Femoral Impingement and Perforation
Authors: P. Panwalkar, K. Veravalli, M. Tofighi, A. Mofidi
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Introduction: Anterior femoral perforation or distal anterior nail position is a known complication of femoral nailing specifically in pertrochantric fractures fixed with cephalomedullary nail. This has been attributed to wrong entry point for the femoral nail, nail with large radius of curvature or malreduced fracture. Left alone anterior perforation of femur or abutment of nail on anterior femur will result in pain and risk stress riser at distal femur and periprosthetic fracture. There have been multiple techniques described to avert or correct this problem ranging from using different nail, entry point change, poller screw to deflect the nail position, use of shorter nail or use of curved guidewire or change of nail to ensure a nail with large radius of curvature Methods: We present this technique which we have used in order to centralise the femoral nail either when the nail has been put anteriorly or when the guide wire has been inserted too anteriorly prior to the insertion of the nail. This technique requires the use of femoral reduction spool from the nailing set. This technique was used by eight trainees of different level of experience under supervision. Results: This technique was easily reproducible without any learning curve without a need for opening of fracture site or change in the entry point with three different femoral nailing sets in twenty-five cases. The process took less than 10 minutes even when revising a malpositioned femoral nail. Conclusion: Our technique of using femoral reduction spool is easily reproducible and repeatable technique for avoidance of non-centralised femoral nail insertion and distal anterior perforation of femoral nail.Keywords: femoral fracture, nailing, malposition, surgery
Procedia PDF Downloads 14235337 The Role of Psychological Hardiness and Psychological Resilience Employee's Commitment to Change
Authors: Ni Made Dian Swandewi, Wustari L. Mangundjaya
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Employees’ commitment to change are required for the success of organizational change in the company. The objective of this study is to identify the correlation between psychological hardiness and psychological resilience on commitment to change. The respondents of current research are permanent employees and employees that have worked for at least two years in a company that has been experiencing organizational change. Data was collected using Commitment to Change Inventory, Dispositional Resilience Scale (DRS), and Modified CD-RISC. The data were analyzed using regression. The results of the research show that both Psychological Hardiness and Psychological Resilience have positive and significant correlation and contribution on Commitment to Change. This research is important for companies who undergo organizational change in order plan and implement change more effectively.Keywords: commitment to change, organizational change, psychological hardiness, psychological resilience
Procedia PDF Downloads 32835336 Correlation Results Based on Magnetic Susceptibility Measurements by in-situ and Ex-Situ Measurements as Indicators of Environmental Changes Due to the Fertilizer Industry
Authors: Nurin Amalina Widityani, Adinda Syifa Azhari, Twin Aji Kusumagiani, Eleonora Agustine
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Fertilizer industry activities contribute to environmental changes. Changes to the environment became one of a few problems in this era of globalization. Parameters that can be seen as criteria to identify changes in the environment can be seen from the aspects of physics, chemistry, and biology. One aspect that can be assessed quickly and efficiently to describe environmental change is the aspect of physics, one of which is the value of magnetic susceptibility (χ). The rock magnetism method can be used as a proxy indicator of environmental changes, seen from the value of magnetic susceptibility. The rock magnetism method is based on magnetic susceptibility studies to measure and classify the degree of pollutant elements that cause changes in the environment. This research was conducted in the area around the fertilizer plant, with five coring points on each track, each coring point a depth of 15 cm. Magnetic susceptibility measurements were performed by in-situ and ex-situ. In-situ measurements were carried out directly by using the SM30 tool by putting the tools on the soil surface at each measurement point and by that obtaining the value of the magnetic susceptibility. Meanwhile, ex-situ measurements are performed in the laboratory by using the Bartington MS2B tool’s susceptibility, which is done on a coring sample which is taken every 5 cm. In-situ measurement shows results that the value of magnetic susceptibility at the surface varies, with the lowest score on the second and fifth points with the -0.81 value and the highest value at the third point, with the score of 0,345. Ex-situ measurements can find out the variations of magnetic susceptibility values at each depth point of coring. At a depth of 0-5 cm, the value of the highest XLF = 494.8 (x10-8m³/kg) is at the third point, while the value of the lowest XLF = 187.1 (x10-8m³/kg) at first. At a depth of 6-10 cm, the highest value of the XLF was at the second point, which was 832.7 (x10-8m³/kg) while the lowest XLF is at the first point, at 211 (x10-8m³/kg). At a depth of 11-15 cm, the XLF’s highest value = 857.7 (x10-8m³/kg) is at the second point, whereas the value of the lowest XLF = 83.3 (x10-8m³/kg) is at the fifth point. Based on the in situ and exsit measurements, it can be seen that the highest magnetic susceptibility values from the surface samples are at the third point.Keywords: magnetic susceptibility, fertilizer plant, Bartington MS2B, SM30
Procedia PDF Downloads 34235335 The Falling Point of Lubricant
Authors: Arafat Husain
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The lubricants are one of the most used resource in today’s world. Lot of the superpowers are dependent on the lubricant resource for their country to function. To see that the lubricants are not adulterated we need to develop some efficient ways and to see which fluid has been added to the lubricant. So to observe the these malpractices in the lubricant we need to develop a method. We take a elastic ball and through it at probability circle in the submerged in the lubricant at a fixed force and see the distance of pitching and the point of fall. Then we the ratio of distance of falling to the distance of pitching and if the measured ratio is greater than one the fluid is less viscous and if the ratio is lesser than the lubricant is viscous. We will check the falling point of pure lubricant at fixed force and every pure lubricant would have a fixed falling point. After that we would adulterate the lubricant and note the falling point and if the falling point is less than the standard value then adulterate is solid and if the adulterate is liquid the falling point will be more than the standard value. Hence the comparison with the standard falling point will give the efficiency of the lubricant.Keywords: falling point of lubricant, falling point ratios, probability circle, octane number
Procedia PDF Downloads 49535334 Optimizing Operation of Photovoltaic System Using Neural Network and Fuzzy Logic
Authors: N. Drir, L. Barazane, M. Loudini
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It is well known that photovoltaic (PV) cells are an attractive source of energy. Abundant and ubiquitous, this source is one of the important renewable energy sources that have been increasing worldwide year by year. However, in the V-P characteristic curve of GPV, there is a maximum point called the maximum power point (MPP) which depends closely on the variation of atmospheric conditions and the rotation of the earth. In fact, such characteristics outputs are nonlinear and change with variations of temperature and irradiation, so we need a controller named maximum power point tracker MPPT to extract the maximum power at the terminals of photovoltaic generator. In this context, the authors propose here to study the modeling of a photovoltaic system and to find an appropriate method for optimizing the operation of the PV generator using two intelligent controllers respectively to track this point. The first one is based on artificial neural networks and the second on fuzzy logic. After the conception and the integration of each controller in the global process, the performances are examined and compared through a series of simulation. These two controller have prove by their results good tracking of the MPPT compare with the other method which are proposed up to now.Keywords: maximum power point tracking, neural networks, photovoltaic, P&O
Procedia PDF Downloads 33935333 Curriculum Change and Innovation Viewed from Two Different Lenses
Authors: Muqaddas Butt, Allah Bakhsh Malik
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The changing educational environment, the diverse educational needs of students, the high expectations from the public, and the policy reports demand a strong change & innovation in the curriculum. Effective change and innovation could not be possible without the involvement of two major tenants i.e. teachers and educational managers. Thus, the locus of this research was to explore the secondary school principals and teachers priorities regarding change and innovation in curriculum. The main research objectives were included to explore the secondary school teachers’ and principals’ views about existing Humanities group curriculum; to identify their priorities regarding change and innovation in curriculum and to make a comparison between the priorities of both (the teachers & principals). A total sample of 150 Secondary school teachers and 24 principals from Federal Government Secondary Schools was drawn. The data was obtained through a five point Likert scale questionnaire. The findings indicated a huge difference between principals and teachers priorities. Related to prevailed curriculum, teachers showed more satisfactory views than principals. It was also found that the principals in comparison with teachers showed more inclination towards change and innovation and emphasized on an interdisciplinary, practical and ICT Integrated curriculum. Inclusion of local environmental issues; creativity based and practical activities based curriculum; and orientation to citizenship education into curriculum were some of the aspects highly prioritized by both teachers and principals.Keywords: curriculum change, curriculum innovation, humanities curriculum, curriculum priorities
Procedia PDF Downloads 44835332 Analysis of Network Performance Using Aspect of Quantum Cryptography
Authors: Nisarg A. Patel, Hiren B. Patel
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Quantum cryptography is described as a point-to-point secure key generation technology that has emerged in recent times in providing absolute security. Researchers have started studying new innovative approaches to exploit the security of Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) for a large-scale communication system. A number of approaches and models for utilization of QKD for secure communication have been developed. The uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics created a new paradigm for QKD. One of the approaches for use of QKD involved network fashioned security. The main goal was point-to-point Quantum network that exploited QKD technology for end-to-end network security via high speed QKD. Other approaches and models equipped with QKD in network fashion are introduced in the literature as. A different approach that this paper deals with is using QKD in existing protocols, which are widely used on the Internet to enhance security with main objective of unconditional security. Our work is towards the analysis of the QKD in Mobile ad-hoc network (MANET).Keywords: cryptography, networking, quantum, encryption and decryption
Procedia PDF Downloads 18435331 Continuous-Time Analysis And Performance Assessment For Digital Control Of High-Frequency Switching Synchronous Dc-Dc Converter
Authors: Rihab Hamdi, Amel Hadri Hamida, Ouafae Bennis, Sakina Zerouali
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This paper features a performance analysis and robustness assessment of a digitally controlled DC-DC three-cell buck converter associated in parallel, operating in continuous conduction mode (CCM), facing feeding parameters variation and loads disturbance. The control strategy relies on the continuous-time with an averaged modeling technique for high-frequency switching converter. The methodology is to modulate the complete design procedure, in regard to the existence of an instantaneous current operating point for designing the digital closed-loop, to the same continuous-time domain. Moreover, the adopted approach is to include a digital voltage control (DVC) technique, taking an account for digital control delays and sampling effects, which aims at improving efficiency and dynamic response and preventing generally undesired phenomena. The results obtained under load change, input change, and reference change clearly demonstrates an excellent dynamic response of the proposed technique, also as provide stability in any operating conditions, the effectiveness is fast with a smooth tracking of the specified output voltage. Simulations studies in MATLAB/Simulink environment are performed to verify the concept.Keywords: continuous conduction mode, digital control, parallel multi-cells converter, performance analysis, power electronics
Procedia PDF Downloads 15035330 PointNetLK-OBB: A Point Cloud Registration Algorithm with High Accuracy
Authors: Wenhao Lan, Ning Li, Qiang Tong
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To improve the registration accuracy of a source point cloud and template point cloud when the initial relative deflection angle is too large, a PointNetLK algorithm combined with an oriented bounding box (PointNetLK-OBB) is proposed. In this algorithm, the OBB of a 3D point cloud is used to represent the macro feature of source and template point clouds. Under the guidance of the iterative closest point algorithm, the OBB of the source and template point clouds is aligned, and a mirror symmetry effect is produced between them. According to the fitting degree of the source and template point clouds, the mirror symmetry plane is detected, and the optimal rotation and translation of the source point cloud is obtained to complete the 3D point cloud registration task. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, a comparative experiment was performed using the publicly available ModelNet40 dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that, compared with PointNetLK, PointNetLK-OBB improves the registration accuracy of the source and template point clouds when the initial relative deflection angle is too large, and the sensitivity of the initial relative position between the source point cloud and template point cloud is reduced. The primary contribution of this paper is the use of PointNetLK to avoid the non-convex problem of traditional point cloud registration and leveraging the regularity of the OBB to avoid the local optimization problem in the PointNetLK context.Keywords: mirror symmetry, oriented bounding box, point cloud registration, PointNetLK-OBB
Procedia PDF Downloads 15035329 European Environmental Policy for Road Transport: Analysis of the Perverse Effects Generated and Proposals for a Good Practice Guide
Authors: Pedro Pablo Ramírez Sánchez, Alassane Ballé Ndiaye, Roberto Rendeiro Martín-Cejas
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The aim of this paper is to analyse the different environmental policies adopted in Europe for car emissions, to comment on some of the possible perverse effects generated and point out these policies which are considered more efficient under the environmental perspective. This paper is focused on passenger cars as this category is the most significant in road transport. The utility of this research lies in this being the first step or basis to improve and optimise actual policies. The methodology applied in this paper refers to a comparative analysis from a practical and theoretical point of view of European environmental policies in road transport. This work describes an overview of the road transport industry in Europe pointing out some relevant aspects such as the contribution of road transport to total emissions and the vehicle fleet in Europe. Additionally, we propose a brief practice guide with the combined policies in order to optimise their aim.Keywords: air quality, climate change, emission, environment, perverse effect, road transport, tax policy
Procedia PDF Downloads 16135328 Simulation of Single-Track Laser Melting on IN718 using Material Point Method
Authors: S. Kadiyala, M. Berzins, D. Juba, W. Keyrouz
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This paper describes the Material Point Method (MPM) for simulating a single-track laser melting process on an IN718 solid plate. MPM, known for simulating challenging multiphysics problems, is used to model the intricate thermal, mechanical, and fluid interactions during the laser sintering process. This study analyzes the formation of single tracks, exploring the impact of varying laser parameters such as speed, power, and spot diameter on the melt pool and track formation. The focus is on MPM’s ability to accurately simulate and capture the transient thermo-mechanical and phase change phenomena, which are critical in predicting the cooling rates before and after solidification of the laser track and the final melt pool geometry. The simulation results are rigorously compared with experimental data (AMB2022 benchmarks), demonstrating the effectiveness of MPM in replicating the physical processes in laser sintering. This research highlights the potential of MPM in advancing the understanding and simulation of melt pool physics in metal additive manufacturing, paving the way for optimized process parameters and improved material performance.Keywords: dditive manufacturing simulation, material point method, phase change, melt pool physics
Procedia PDF Downloads 5935327 Development of a Multi-Factorial Instrument for Accident Analysis Based on Systemic Methods
Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu
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The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.Keywords: accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods
Procedia PDF Downloads 20835326 Intertemporal Individual Preferences for Climate Change Intergenerational Investments – Estimating the Social Discount Rate for Poland
Authors: Monika Foltyn-Zarychta
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Climate change mitigation investment activities are inevitably extended in time extremely. The project cycle does not last for decades – sometimes it stretches out for hundreds of years and the project outcomes impact several generations. The longevity of those activities raises multiple problems in the appraisal procedure. One of the pivotal issues is the choice of the discount rate, which affect tremendously the net present value criterion. The paper aims at estimating the value of social discount rate for intergenerational investment projects in Poland based on individual intertemporal preferences. The analysis is based on questionnaire surveying Polish citizens and designed as contingent valuation method. The analysis aimed at answering two questions: 1) whether the value of the individual discount rate decline with increased time of delay, and 2) whether the value of the individual discount rate changes with increased spatial distance toward the gainers of the project. The valuation questions were designed to identify respondent’s indifference point between lives saved today and in the future due to hypothetical project mitigating climate changes. Several project effects’ delays (of 10, 30, 90 and 150 years) were used to test the decline in value with time. The variability in regard to distance was tested by asking respondents to estimate their indifference point separately for gainers in Poland and in Latvia. The results show that as the time delay increases, the average discount rate value decreases from 15,32% for 10-year delay to 2,75% for 150-year delay. Similar values were estimated for Latvian beneficiaries. There should be also noticed that the average volatility measured by standard deviation also decreased with time delay. However, the results did not show any statistically significant difference in discount rate values for Polish and Latvian gainers. The results showing the decline of the discount rate with time prove the possible economic efficiency of the intergenerational effect of climate change mitigation projects and may induce the assumption of the altruistic behavior of present generation toward future people. Furthermore, it can be backed up by the same discount rate level declared by Polish for distant in space Latvian gainers. The climate change activities usually need significant outlays and the payback period is extremely long. The more precise the variables in the appraisal are, the more trustworthy and rational the investment decision is. The discount rate estimations for Poland add to the vivid discussion concerning the issue of climate change and intergenerational justice.Keywords: climate change, social discount rate, investment appraisal, intergenerational justice
Procedia PDF Downloads 23835325 A Method for Calculating Dew Point Temperature in the Humidity Test
Authors: Wu Sa, Zhang Qian, Li Qi, Wang Ye
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Currently in humidity tests having not put the Dew point temperature as a control parameter, this paper selects wet and dry bulb thermometer to measure the vapor pressure, and introduces several the saturation vapor pressure formulas easily calculated on the controller. Then establish the Dew point temperature calculation model to obtain the relationship between the Dew point temperature and vapor pressure. Finally check through the 100 groups of sample in the range of 0-100 ℃ from "Psychrometric handbook", find that the average error is small. This formula can be applied to calculate the Dew point temperature in the humidity test.Keywords: dew point temperature, psychrometric handbook, saturation vapor pressure, wet and dry bulb thermometer
Procedia PDF Downloads 48935324 Estimating 3D-Position of a Stationary Random Acoustic Source Using Bispectral Analysis of 4-Point Detected Signals
Authors: Katsumi Hirata
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To develop the useful acoustic environmental recognition system, the method of estimating 3D-position of a stationary random acoustic source using bispectral analysis of 4-point detected signals is proposed. The method uses information about amplitude attenuation and propagation delay extracted from amplitude ratios and angles of auto- and cross-bispectra of the detected signals. It is expected that using bispectral analysis affects less influence of Gaussian noises than using conventional power spectral one. In this paper, the basic principle of the method is mentioned first, and its validity and features are considered from results of the fundamental experiments assumed ideal circumstances.Keywords: 4-point detection, a stationary random acoustic source, auto- and cross-bispectra, estimation of 3D-position
Procedia PDF Downloads 35935323 Structural Properties of RC Beam with Progression of Corrosion Induced Delamination Cracking
Authors: Anupam Saxena, Achin Agrawal, Rishabh Shukla, S. Mandal
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It is quite important that the properties of structural elements do not change significantly before and after cracking, and if they do, it adversely affects the structure. Corrosion in rebars causes cracking in concrete which can lead to the change in properties of beam. In the present study, two RC beams with same flexural strength but with different reinforcement arrangements are considered and modelling of cracks of RC beams has been done at different degrees of corrosion in the case of delamination using boundary conditions of Three Point Bending Test. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) has been done at different degree of corrosion to observe the variation of different parameters like modal frequency, Elasticity and Flexural strength in case of delamination. Also, the comparison between two different RC arrangements is made to conclude which one of them is more suitable.Keywords: delamination, elasticity, FEA, flexural strength, modal frequency, RC beam
Procedia PDF Downloads 42635322 Fixed Point of Lipschitz Quasi Nonexpansive Mappings
Authors: Maryam Moosavi, Hadi Khatibzadeh
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The main purpose of this paper is to study the proximal point algorithm for quasi-nonexpansive mappings in Hadamard spaces. △-convergence and strong convergence of cyclic resolvents for a finite family of quasi-nonexpansive mappings one to a fixed point of the mappings are establishedKeywords: Fixed point, Hadamard space, Proximal point algorithm, Quasi-nonexpansive sequence of mappings, Resolvent
Procedia PDF Downloads 9135321 Fixed Point Iteration of a Damped and Unforced Duffing's Equation
Authors: Paschal A. Ochang, Emmanuel C. Oji
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The Duffing’s Equation is a second order system that is very important because they are fundamental to the behaviour of higher order systems and they have applications in almost all fields of science and engineering. In the biological area, it is useful in plant stem dependence and natural frequency and model of the Brain Crash Analysis (BCA). In Engineering, it is useful in the study of Damping indoor construction and Traffic lights and to the meteorologist it is used in the prediction of weather conditions. However, most Problems in real life that occur are non-linear in nature and may not have analytical solutions except approximations or simulations, so trying to find an exact explicit solution may in general be complicated and sometimes impossible. Therefore we aim to find out if it is possible to obtain one analytical fixed point to the non-linear ordinary equation using fixed point analytical method. We started by exposing the scope of the Duffing’s equation and other related works on it. With a major focus on the fixed point and fixed point iterative scheme, we tried different iterative schemes on the Duffing’s Equation. We were able to identify that one can only see the fixed points to a Damped Duffing’s Equation and not to the Undamped Duffing’s Equation. This is because the cubic nonlinearity term is the determining factor to the Duffing’s Equation. We finally came to the results where we identified the stability of an equation that is damped, forced and second order in nature. Generally, in this research, we approximate the solution of Duffing’s Equation by converting it to a system of First and Second Order Ordinary Differential Equation and using Fixed Point Iterative approach. This approach shows that for different versions of Duffing’s Equations (damped), we find fixed points, therefore the order of computations and running time of applied software in all fields using the Duffing’s equation will be reduced.Keywords: damping, Duffing's equation, fixed point analysis, second order differential, stability analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 29235320 Analysis of Maize Yield under Climate Change, Adaptations in Varieties and Planting Date in Northeast China in Recent Thirty Years
Authors: Zhan Fengmei Yao, Hui Li, Jiahua Zhang
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The Northeast China (NEC) was the most important agriculture areas and known as the Golden-Maize-Belt. Based on observed crop data and crop model, we design four simulating experiments and separate relative impacts and contribution under climate change, planting date shift, and varieties change as well change of varieties and planting date. Without planting date and varieties change, maize yields had no significant change trend at Hailun station located in the north of NEC, and presented significant decrease by 0.2-0.4 t/10a at two stations, which located in the middle and the south of NEC. With planting date change, yields showed a significant increase by 0.09 - 0.47 t/10a. With varieties change, maize yields had significant increase by 1.8~ 1.9 t/10a at Hailun and Huadian stations, but a non-significant and low increase by 0.2t /10a at Benxi located in the south of NEC. With change of varieties and planting date, yields presented a significant increasing by 0.53-2.0 t/10a. Their contribution to yields was -25% ~ -55% for climate change, 15% ~ 35% for planting date change, and 20% ~110% for varieties change as well 30% ~135% for varieties with planting date shift. It found that change in varieties and planting date were highest yields and were responsible for significant increases in maize yields, varieties was secondly, and planting date was thirdly. It found that adaptation in varieties and planting date greatly improved maize yields, and increased yields annual variability. The increase of contribution with planting date and varieties change in 2000s was lower than in 1990s. Yields with the varieties change and yields with planting date and varieties change all showed a decreasing trend at Huadian and Benxi since 2002 or so. It indicated that maize yields increasing trend stagnated in the middle and south of NEC, and continued in the north of NEC.Keywords: climate change, maize yields, varieties, planting date, impacts
Procedia PDF Downloads 36135319 ISIS and Its Impact on Geographical Change in Iraq’s Population
Authors: Pshtiwan Shafiq Ahmed
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The invasion of Iraq was a turning point in Iraq, destroying the economic infrastructure of several important strategic and historic cities, including Mosul, Anbar and Diyala, which will take decades to rebuild It left 18,805 people dead and 37,000 injured, destroying hundreds of villages and cities, displacing 2.3 million people, and increasing the number of orphans The increase in the number of windows and the destruction of society and the structure of the population so that the number of children, women and the elderly has increased. Religious clashes have increased and religious cleansing has begun, trying to eradicate Christianity, Yazidis and Kakais from the whole of Iraq, causing the largest number of Christians, Yazidis and Kakais to leave Iraq and many of them went missing.Keywords: ISIS, population change, geographical change, Iraq
Procedia PDF Downloads 9235318 Resistance to Change as a Lever of Innovation: Case of Tangier, Tetouan and Hoceima Region, Morocco
Authors: Jihane Abdessadak, Hicham Achelhi, Kamal Reklaoui
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For any company or organization, change must be natural and binding in order to evolve its business, protect its durability and remain competitive. "Adapt or disappear". But how often managers, leaders or employees develop astonishing ideas that could improve several aspects of the organization and the feedback is less that encouraging and people give unrealistic judgments just to escape change. In this paper, we are going to discuss what we do know about change and resistance to change and what we can do to tame this phenomenon and, above all, the main steps that can follow an idea man in the delicate and decisive implementation of innovations.Keywords: innovation, change, resistance to change/innovation, barriers to innovation, levers of innovation
Procedia PDF Downloads 296