Search results for: change point detection
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 14156

Search results for: change point detection

9716 The Cave Paintings of Libyc Inscriptions of Tifra, Kabylia, Algeria

Authors: Samia Ait Ali Yahia

Abstract:

The Tifra site is one of 54 sites with rock paintings discovered in Kabylia (Algeria). It consists of two shelters: Ifran I and Ifran II. From an aesthetic point of view, these two shelters appear poor. It shows a human silhouette, a hand, enigmatic designs and especially Libyc inscriptions. The paint used, is the natural red ocher. Today, these paintings are threatened by the frequentation of tourists to the sites as well as by the degradation which result from it. It is therefore vital to us to list and analyze these paintings before they disappear. The analysis of these paintings will be focused on the epigraphic and iconographic level and their meanings.

Keywords: cave painting, Libyc inscription, conservation, valorization

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9715 On the Question of Ideology: Criticism of the Enlightenment Approach and Theory of Ideology as Objective Force in Gramsci and Althusser

Authors: Edoardo Schinco

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Studying the Marxist intellectual tradition, it is possible to verify that there were numerous cases of philosophical regression, in which the important achievements of detailed studies have been replaced by naïve ideas and previous misunderstandings: one of most important example of this tendency is related to the question of ideology. According to a common Enlightenment approach, the ideology is essentially not a reality, i.e., a factor capable of having an effect on the reality itself; in other words, the ideology is a mere error without specific historical meaning, which is only due to ignorance or inability of subjects to understand the truth. From this point of view, the consequent and immediate practice against every form of ideology are the rational dialogue, the reasoning based on common sense, in order to dispel the obscurity of ignorance through the light of pure reason. The limits of this philosophical orientation are however both theoretical and practical: on the one hand, the Enlightenment criticism of ideology is not an historicistic thought, since it cannot grasp the inner connection that ties an historical context and its peculiar ideology together; moreover, on the other hand, when the Enlightenment approach fails to release people from their illusions (e.g., when the ideology persists, despite the explanation of its illusoriness), it usually becomes a racist or elitarian thought. Unlike this first conception of ideology, Gramsci attempts to recover Marx’s original thought and to valorize its dialectical methodology with respect to the reality of ideology. As Marx suggests, the ideology – in negative meaning – is surely an error, a misleading knowledge, which aims to defense the current state of things and to conceal social, political or moral contradictions; but, that is precisely why the ideological error is not casual: every ideology mediately roots in a particular material context, from which it takes its reason being. Gramsci avoids, however, any mechanistic interpretation of Marx and, for this reason; he underlines the dialectic relation that exists between material base and ideological superstructure; in this way, a specific ideology is not only a passive product of base but also an active factor that reacts on the base itself and modifies it. Therefore, there is a considerable revaluation of ideology’s role in maintenance of status quo and the consequent thematization of both ideology as objective force, active in history, and ideology as cultural hegemony of ruling class on subordinate groups. Among the Marxists, the French philosopher Louis Althusser also gives his contribution to this crucial question; as follower of Gramsci’s thought, he develops the idea of ideology as an objective force through the notions of Repressive State Apparatus (RSA) and Ideological State Apparatuses (ISA). In addition to this, his philosophy is characterized by the presence of structuralist elements, which must be studied, since they deeply change the theoretical foundation of his Marxist thought.

Keywords: Althusser, enlightenment, Gramsci, ideology

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9714 Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Cloud Movement in a Basic Off-Grid Photovoltaic System: Case Study Using Transient Response of DC-DC Converters

Authors: Asowata Osamede, Christo Pienaar, Johan Bekker

Abstract:

Mismatch in electrical energy (power) or outage from commercial providers, in general, does not promote development to the public and private sector, these basically limit the development of industries. The necessity for a well-structured photovoltaic (PV) system is of importance for an efficient and cost-effective monitoring system. The major renewable energy potential on earth is provided from solar radiation and solar photovoltaics (PV) are considered a promising technological solution to support the global transformation to a low-carbon economy and reduction on the dependence on fossil fuels. Solar arrays which consist of various PV module should be operated at the maximum power point in order to reduce the overall cost of the system. So power regulation and conditioning circuits should be incorporated in the set-up of a PV system. Power regulation circuits used in PV systems include maximum power point trackers, DC-DC converters and solar chargers. Inappropriate choice of power conditioning device in a basic off-grid PV system can attribute to power loss, hence the need for a right choice of power conditioning device to be coupled with the system of the essence. This paper presents the design and implementation of a power conditioning devices in order to improve the overall yield from the availability of solar energy and the system’s total efficiency. The power conditioning devices taken into consideration in the project includes the Buck and Boost DC-DC converters as well as solar chargers with MPPT. A logging interface circuit (LIC) is designed and employed into the system. The LIC is designed on a printed circuit board. It basically has DC current signalling sensors, specifically the LTS 6-NP. The LIC is consequently required to program the voltages in the system (these include the PV voltage and the power conditioning device voltage). The voltage is structured in such a way that it can be accommodated by the data logger. Preliminary results which include availability of power as well as power loss in the system and efficiency will be presented and this would be used to draw the final conclusion.

Keywords: tilt and orientation angles, solar chargers, PV panels, storage devices, direct solar radiation

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9713 The Effect of Group Counseling on the Victimhood Perceptions of Adolescent Who Are the Subject of Peer Victimization and on Their Coping Strategies

Authors: İsmail Seçer, Taştan Seçer

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In this study, the effect of the group counseling on the victimhood perceptions of the primary school 7th and 8th grade students who are determined to be the subject of peer victimization and their dealing way with it was analyzed. The research model is Solomon Four Group Experimental Model. In this model, there are four groups that were determined with random sampling. Two of the groups have been used as experimental group and the other two have been used as control group. Solomon model is defined as real experimental model. In real experimental models, there are multiple groups consisting of subject which have similar characteristics, and selection of the subjects is done with random sampling. For this purpose, 230 students from Kültür Kurumu Primary School in Erzurum were asked to fill Adolescent Peer Victim Form. 100 students whose victim scores were higher and who were determined to be the subject of bullying were talked face to face and informed about the current study, and they were asked if they were willing to participate or not. As a result of these interviews, 60 students were determined to participate in the experimental study and four group consisting of 15 people were created with simple random sampling method. After the groups had been formed, experimental and control group were determined with casting lots. After determining experimental and control groups, an 11-session group counseling activity which was prepared by the researcher according to the literature was applied. The purpose of applying group counseling is to change the ineffective dealing ways with bullying and their victimhood perceptions. Each session was planned to be 75 minutes and applied as planned. In the control groups, counseling activities in the primary school counseling curricula was applied for 11 weeks. As a result of the study, physical, emotional and verbal victimhood perceptions of the participants in the experimental groups were decreased significantly compared to pre-experimental situations and to those in control group. Besides, it was determined that this change observed in the victimhood perceptions of the experimental group occurred independently from the effect of variables such as gender, age and academic success. The first evidence of the study related to the dealing ways is that the scores of the participants in the experimental group related to the ineffective dealing ways such as despair and avoidance is decreased significantly compared to the pre-experimental situation and to those in control group. The second evidence related to the dealing ways is that the scores of the participants in the experimental group related to effective dealing ways such as seeking for help, consulting social support, resistance and optimism is increased significantly compared to the pre-experimental situation and to those in control group. According to the evidence obtained through the study, it can be said that group counseling is an effective approach to change the victimhood perceptions of the individuals who are the subject of bullying and their dealing strategies with it.

Keywords: bullying, perception of victimization, coping strategies, ancova analysis

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9712 Nurses' Perception and Core Competencies for Disaster Preparedness: A Study from the Western Region of Turkey

Authors: Gülcan Taşkıran, Ülkü Tatar Baykal

Abstract:

Aim: To identify nurses’ perceived competencies for disaster preparedness. Background: Recently, the number of disasters has increased worldwide. Since disasters often strike without warning, healthcare providers, especially nurses must be prepared with appropriate competencies for disaster procedures. Nurses’ perceptions of their own competencies for disaster preparedness need to be evaluated to aid in the creation of effective national plans and educational programs. Design: This study was conducted with a descriptive and cross-sectional design. Methods: Nurses’ perceptions were assessed using the 13-item Demographic Profile Questionnaire that is based on previous literature and the 45-item Nurses’ Perception of Core Competencies for Disaster Preparedness Scale (NPCDPS). Data were collected from June to September 2014 from 406 (79.9% return rate) Turkish nurses working in the western region of Turkey. Results: At the end of the study, it was found that out of the nurses whose mean age was 31.27 ± 5.86 and mean of working time was 8.07 ± 6.60 by the time vast majority of the nurses were women (85.7%), married (59.4%), bachelor’s degree holder (88.2%) and service nurses (56.2%). The most potential disaster that nurses think is an earthquake (70.9%) by the time majority of nurses consider having a role as a nurse at every stage of disasters. The mean total point score of nurses’ perception of disaster preparedness was 4.62. The mean total point score of the nurses from the Nurses’ Perception of Core Competencies for Disaster Preparedness Scale was 133.96. When the subscales’ mean scores are examined, the highest average of the mean score is for Technical Skills (44.52), and the lowest is for Critical Thinking Skills (10.47). When the subscales of Nurses’ Perception of Core Competencies for Disaster Preparedness Scale compared with sex, marital status and education level out of independent variable of nurses there is no significant difference (p > 0.05); compared with age group, working years, duty and being with a disaster out of independent variable of nurses there is a significant difference (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion: Nurses generally perceive themselves as sufficient at a ‘medium level’ in terms of meeting the core competencies that are required for disaster preparedness. Nurses are not adequately prepared for disasters, but they are aware of the need for such preparation and disaster education. Disaster management training should be given to all nurses in their basic education.

Keywords: disaster competencies, disaster management, disaster nursing, disaster preparedness, nursing, nursing administration, Turkish nurses

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9711 Molecular Biomonitoring of Bacterial Pathogens in Wastewater

Authors: Desouky Abd El Haleem, Sahar Zaki

Abstract:

This work was conducted to develop a one-step multiplex PCR system for rapid, sensitive, and specific detection of three different bacterial pathogens, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Salmonella spp, directly in wastewater without prior isolation on selective media. As a molecular confirmatory test after isolation of the pathogens by classical microbiological methods, PCR-RFLP of their amplified 16S rDNA genes was performed. It was observed that the developed protocols have significance impact in the ability to detect sensitively, rapidly and specifically the three pathogens directly in water within short-time, represents a considerable advancement over more time-consuming and less-sensitive methods for identification and characterization of these kinds of pathogens.

Keywords: multiplex PCR, bacterial pathogens, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella spp.

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9710 The Impact of Protein Content on Athletes’ Body Composition

Authors: G. Vici, L. Cesanelli, L. Belli, R. Ceci, V. Polzonetti

Abstract:

Several factors contribute to success in sport and diet is one of them. Evidence-based sport nutrition guidelines underline the importance of macro- and micro-nutrients’ balance and timing in order to improve athlete’s physical status and performance. Nevertheless, a high content of proteins is commonly found in resistance training athletes’ diet with carbohydrate intake that is not enough or not well planned. The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of different protein and carbohydrate diet contents on body composition and sport performance on a group of resistance training athletes. Subjects were divided as study group (n=16) and control group (n=14). For a period of 4 months, both groups were subjected to the same resistance training fitness program with study group following a specific diet and control group following an ab libitum diet. Body compositions were evaluated trough anthropometric measurement (weight, height, body circumferences and skinfolds) and Bioimpedence Analysis. Physical strength and training status of individuals were evaluated through the One Repetition Maximum test (RM1). Protein intake in studied group was found to be lower than in control group. There was a statistically significant increase of body weight, free fat mass and body mass cell of studied group respect to the control group. Fat mass remains almost constant. Statistically significant changes were observed in quadriceps and biceps circumferences, with an increase in studied group. The MR1 test showed improvement in study group’s strength but no changes in control group. Usually people consume hyper-proteic diet to achieve muscle mass development. Through this study, it was possible to show that protein intake fixed at 1,7 g/kg/d can meet the individual's needs. In parallel, the increased intake of carbohydrates, focusing on quality and timing of assumption, has enabled the obtainment of desired results with a training protocol supporting a hypertrophic strategy. Therefore, the key point seems related to the planning of a structured program both from a nutritional and training point of view.

Keywords: body composition, diet, exercise, protein

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9709 Microfluidic Plasmonic Bio-Sensing of Exosomes by Using a Gold Nano-Island Platform

Authors: Srinivas Bathini, Duraichelvan Raju, Simona Badilescu, Muthukumaran Packirisamy

Abstract:

A bio-sensing method, based on the plasmonic property of gold nano-islands, has been developed for detection of exosomes in a clinical setting. The position of the gold plasmon band in the UV-Visible spectrum depends on the size and shape of gold nanoparticles as well as on the surrounding environment. By adsorbing various chemical entities, or binding them, the gold plasmon band will shift toward longer wavelengths and the shift is proportional to the concentration. Exosomes transport cargoes of molecules and genetic materials to proximal and distal cells. Presently, the standard method for their isolation and quantification from body fluids is by ultracentrifugation, not a practical method to be implemented in a clinical setting. Thus, a versatile and cutting-edge platform is required to selectively detect and isolate exosomes for further analysis at clinical level. The new sensing protocol, instead of antibodies, makes use of a specially synthesized polypeptide (Vn96), to capture and quantify the exosomes from different media, by binding the heat shock proteins from exosomes. The protocol has been established and optimized by using a glass substrate, in order to facilitate the next stage, namely the transfer of the protocol to a microfluidic environment. After each step of the protocol, the UV-Vis spectrum was recorded and the position of gold Localized Surface Plasmon Resonance (LSPR) band was measured. The sensing process was modelled, taking into account the characteristics of the nano-island structure, prepared by thermal convection and annealing. The optimal molar ratios of the most important chemical entities, involved in the detection of exosomes were calculated as well. Indeed, it was found that the results of the sensing process depend on the two major steps: the molar ratios of streptavidin to biotin-PEG-Vn96 and, the final step, the capture of exosomes by the biotin-PEG-Vn96 complex. The microfluidic device designed for sensing of exosomes consists of a glass substrate, sealed by a PDMS layer that contains the channel and a collecting chamber. In the device, the solutions of linker, cross-linker, etc., are pumped over the gold nano-islands and an Ocean Optics spectrometer is used to measure the position of the Au plasmon band at each step of the sensing. The experiments have shown that the shift of the Au LSPR band is proportional to the concentration of exosomes and, thereby, exosomes can be accurately quantified. An important advantage of the method is the ability to discriminate between exosomes having different origins.

Keywords: exosomes, gold nano-islands, microfluidics, plasmonic biosensing

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9708 Top-Down, Middle-Out, Bottom-Up: A Design Approach to Transforming Prison

Authors: Roland F. Karthaus, Rachel S. O'Brien

Abstract:

Over the past decade, the authors have undertaken applied research aimed at enabling transformation within the prison service to improve conditions and outcomes for those living, working and visiting in prisons in the UK and the communities they serve. The research has taken place against a context of reducing resources and public discontent at increasing levels of violence, deteriorating conditions and persistently high levels of re-offending. Top-down governmental policies have mainly been ineffectual and in some cases counter-productive. The prison service is characterised by hierarchical organisation, and the research has applied design thinking at multiple levels to challenge and precipitate change: top-down, middle-out and bottom-up. The research employs three distinct but related approaches, system design (top-down): working at the national policy level to analyse the changing policy context, identifying opportunities and challenges; engaging with the Ministry of Justice commissioners and sector organisations to facilitate debate, introducing new evidence and provoking creative thinking, place-based design (middle-out): working with individual prison establishments as pilots to illustrate and test the potential for local empowerment, creative change, and improved architecture within place-specific contexts and organisational hierarchies, everyday design (bottom-up): working with individuals in the system to explore the potential for localised, significant, demonstrator changes; including collaborative design, capacity building and empowerment in skills, employment, communication, training, and other activities. The research spans a series of projects, through which the methodological approach has developed responsively. The projects include a place-based model for the re-purposing of Ministry of Justice land assets for the purposes of rehabilitation; an evidence-based guide to improve prison design for health and well-being; capacity-based employment, skills and self-build project as a template for future open prisons. The overarching research has enabled knowledge to be developed and disseminated through policy and academic networks. Whilst the research remains live and continuing; key findings are emerging as a basis for a new methodological approach to effecting change in the UK prison service. An interdisciplinary approach is necessary to overcome the barriers between distinct areas of the prison service. Sometimes referred to as total environments, prisons encompass entire social and physical environments which themselves are orchestrated by institutional arms of government, resulting in complex systems that cannot be meaningfully engaged through narrow disciplinary lenses. A scalar approach is necessary to connect strategic policies with individual experiences and potential, through the medium of individual prison establishments, operating as discrete entities within the system. A reflexive process is necessary to connect research with action in a responsive mode, learning to adapt as the system itself is changing. The role of individuals in the system, their latent knowledge and experience and their ability to engage and become agents of change are essential. Whilst the specific characteristics of the UK prison system are unique, the approach is internationally applicable.

Keywords: architecture, design, policy, prison, system, transformation

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9707 A Principal’s Role in Creating and Sustaining an Inclusive Environment

Authors: Yazmin Pineda Zapata

Abstract:

Leading a complete school and culture transformation can be a daunting task for any administrator. This is especially true when change agents are advocating for inclusive reform in their schools. As leaders embark on this journey, they must ascertain that an inclusive environment is not a place, a classroom, or a resource setting; it is a place of acceptance nurtured by supportive and meaningful learning opportunities where all students can thrive. A qualitative approach, phenomenology, was used to investigate principals’ actions and behaviors that supported inclusive schooling for students with disabilities. Specifically, this study sought to answer the following research question: How do leaders develop and maintain inclusive education? Fourteen K-12 principals purposefully selected from various sources (e.g., School Wide Integrated Framework for Transformation (SWIFT), The Maryland Coalition for Inclusive Education (MCIE), The Arc of Texas Inclusion Works organization, The Association for Persons with Severe Handicaps (TASH), the CAL State Summer Institute in San Marcos, and the PEAK Parent Center and/or other recognitions were interviewed individually using a semi-structured protocol. Upon completion of data collection, all interviews were transcribed and marked using A priori coding to analyze the responses and establish a correlation among Villa and Thousand’s five organizational supports to achieve inclusive educational reform: Vision, Skills, Incentives, Resources, and Action Plan. The findings of this study reveal the insights of principals who met specific criteria and whose schools had been highlighted as exemplary inclusive schools. Results show that by implementing the five organizational supports, principals were able to develop and sustain successful inclusive environments where both teachers and students were motivated, made capable, and supported through the redefinition and restructuring of systems within the school. Various key details of the five variables for change depict essential components within these systems, which include quality professional development, coaching and modeling of co-teaching strategies, collaborative co-planning, teacher leadership, and continuous stakeholder (e.g., teachers, students, support staff, and parents) involvement. The administrators in this study proved the valuable benefits of inclusive education for students with disabilities and their typically developing peers. Together, along with their teaching and school community, school leaders became capable stakeholders that promoted the vision of inclusion, planned a structured approach, and took action to make it a reality.

Keywords: Inclusive education, leaders, principals, shared-decision making, shared leadership, special education, sustainable change

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9706 Counterfeit Product Detection Using Block Chain

Authors: Sharanya C. H., Pragathi M., Vathsala R. S., Theja K. V., Yashaswini S.

Abstract:

Identifying counterfeit products have become increasingly important in the product manufacturing industries in recent decades. This current ongoing product issue of counterfeiting has an impact on company sales and profits. To address the aforementioned issue, a functional blockchain technology was implemented, which effectively prevents the product from being counterfeited. By utilizing the blockchain technology, consumers are no longer required to rely on third parties to determine the authenticity of the product being purchased. Blockchain is a distributed database that stores data records known as blocks and several databases known as chains across various networks. Counterfeit products are identified using a QR code reader, and the product's QR code is linked to the blockchain management system. It compares the unique code obtained from the customer to the stored unique code to determine whether or not the product is original.

Keywords: blockchain, ethereum, QR code

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9705 Digitization and Morphometric Characterization of Botanical Collection of Indian Arid Zones as Informatics Initiatives Addressing Conservation Issues in Climate Change Scenario

Authors: Dipankar Saha, J. P. Singh, C. B. Pandey

Abstract:

Indian Thar desert being the seventh largest in the world is the main hot sand desert occupies nearly 385,000km2 and about 9% of the area of the country harbours several species likely the flora of 682 species (63 introduced species) belonging to 352 genera and 87 families. The degree of endemism of plant species in the Thar desert is 6.4 percent, which is relatively higher than the degree of endemism in the Sahara desert which is very significant for the conservationist to envisage. The advent and development of computer technology for digitization and data base management coupled with the rapidly increasing importance of biodiversity conservation resulted in the invention of biodiversity informatics as discipline of basic sciences with multiple applications. Aichi Target 19 as an outcome of Convention of Biological Diversity (CBD) specifically mandates the development of an advanced and shared biodiversity knowledge base. Information on species distributions in space is the crux of effective management of biodiversity in the rapidly changing world. The efficiency of biodiversity management is being increased rapidly by various stakeholders like researchers, policymakers, and funding agencies with the knowledge and application of biodiversity informatics. Herbarium specimens being a vital repository for biodiversity conservation especially in climate change scenario the digitization process usually aims to improve access and to preserve delicate specimens and in doing so creating large sets of images as a part of the existing repository as arid plant information facility for long-term future usage. As the leaf characters are important for describing taxa and distinguishing between them and they can be measured from herbarium specimens as well. As a part of this activity, laminar characterization (leaves being the most important characters in assessing climate change impact) initially resulted in classification of more than thousands collections belonging to ten families like Acanthaceae, Aizoaceae, Amaranthaceae, Asclepiadaceae, Anacardeaceae, Apocynaceae, Asteraceae, Aristolochiaceae, Berseraceae and Bignoniaceae etc. Taxonomic diversity indices has also been worked out being one of the important domain of biodiversity informatics approaches. The digitization process also encompasses workflows which incorporate automated systems to enable us to expand and speed up the digitisation process. The digitisation workflows used to be on a modular system which has the potential to be scaled up. As they are being developed with a geo-referencing tool and additional quality control elements and finally placing specimen images and data into a fully searchable, web-accessible database. Our effort in this paper is to elucidate the role of BIs, present effort of database development of the existing botanical collection of institute repository. This effort is expected to be considered as a part of various global initiatives having an effective biodiversity information facility. This will enable access to plant biodiversity data that are fit-for-use by scientists and decision makers working on biodiversity conservation and sustainable development in the region and iso-climatic situation of the world.

Keywords: biodiversity informatics, climate change, digitization, herbarium, laminar characters, web accessible interface

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9704 A Study on Characteristics of Runoff Analysis Methods at the Time of Rainfall in Rural Area, Okinawa Prefecture Part 2: A Case of Kohatu River in South Central Part of Okinawa Pref

Authors: Kazuki Kohama, Hiroko Ono

Abstract:

The rainfall in Japan is gradually increasing every year according to Japan Meteorological Agency and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. It means that the rainfall difference between rainy season and non-rainfall is increasing. In addition, the increasing trend of strong rain for a short time clearly appears. In recent years, natural disasters have caused enormous human injuries in various parts of Japan. Regarding water disaster, local heavy rain and floods of large rivers occur frequently, and it was decided on a policy to promote hard and soft sides as emergency disaster prevention measures with water disaster prevention awareness social reconstruction vision. Okinawa prefecture in subtropical region has torrential rain and water disaster several times a year such as river flood, in which is caused in specific rivers from all 97 rivers. Also, the shortage of capacity and narrow width are characteristic of river in Okinawa and easily cause river flood in heavy rain. This study focuses on Kohatu River that is one of the specific rivers. In fact, the water level greatly rises over the river levee almost once a year but non-damage of buildings around. On the other hand in some case, the water level reaches to ground floor height of house and has happed nine times until today. The purpose of this research is to figure out relationship between precipitation, surface outflow and total treatment water quantity of Kohatu River. For the purpose, we perform hydrological analysis although is complicated and needs specific details or data so that, the method is mainly using Geographic Information System software and outflow analysis system. At first, we extract watershed and then divided to 23 catchment areas to understand how much surface outflow flows to runoff point in each 10 minutes. On second, we create Unit Hydrograph indicating the area of surface outflow with flow area and time. This index shows the maximum amount of surface outflow at 2400 to 3000 seconds. Lastly, we compare an estimated value from Unit Hydrograph to a measured value. However, we found that measure value is usually lower than measured value because of evaporation and transpiration. In this study, hydrograph analysis was performed using GIS software and outflow analysis system. Based on these, we could clarify the flood time and amount of surface outflow.

Keywords: disaster prevention, water disaster, river flood, GIS software

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9703 Land Use Planning Tool to Achieve Land Degradation Neutrality: Tunisia Case Study

Authors: Rafla Attia, Claudio Zucca, Bao Quang Le, Sana Dridi, Thouraya Sahli, Taoufik Hermassi

Abstract:

In Tunisia, landscape change and land degradation are critical issues for landscape conservation, management, and planning. Landscapes are undergoing crucial environmental problems made evident by soil degradation and desertification. Human improper uses of land resources (e.g., unsuitable land uses, unsustainable crop intensification, and poor rangeland management) and climate change are the main factors leading to the landscape transformation and desertification affecting high proportions of the Tunisian lands. Land use planning (LUP) to achieve Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) must be supported by methodologies and technologies that help identify best solutions and practices and design context-specific sustainable land management (SLM) strategies. Such strategies must include restoration or rehabilitation efforts in areas with high land degradation, as well as prevention of degradation that could be caused by improper land use (LU) and land management (LM). The geoinformatics Land Use Planning for LDN (LUP4LDN) tool has been designed for this purpose. Its aim is to support national and sub-national planners in i) mapping geographic patterns of current land degradation; ii) anticipating further future land degradation expected in areas that are unsustainably managed; and iii) providing an interactive procedure for developing participatory LU-LM transitional scenarios over selected regions of interest and timeframes, visualizing the related expected levels of impacts on ecosystem services via maps and graphs. The tool has been co-developed and piloted with national stakeholders in Tunisia. The piloting implementation assessed how the LUP4LDN tool fits with existing LUP processes and the benefits achieved by using the tool to support land use planning for LDN.

Keywords: land use system, land cover, sustainable land management, land use planning for land degradation neutrality

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9702 Islamic Extremist Groups' Usage of Populism in Social Media to Radicalize Muslim Migrants in Europe

Authors: Muhammad Irfan

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The rise of radicalization within Islam has spawned a new era of global terror. The battlefield Successes of ISIS and the Taliban are fuelled by an ideological war waged, largely and successfully, in the media arena. This research will examine how Islamic extremist groups are using media modalities and populist narratives to influence migrant Muslim populations in Europe towards extremism. In 2014, ISIS shocked the world in exporting horrifically graphic forms of violence on social media. Their Muslim support base was largely disgusted and reviled. In response, they reconfigured their narrative by introducing populist 'hooks', astutely portraying the Muslim populous as oppressed and exploited by unjust, corrupt autocratic regimes and Western power structures. Within this crucible of real and perceived oppression, hundreds of thousands of the most desperate, vulnerable and abused migrants left their homelands, risking their lives in the hope of finding peace, justice, and prosperity in Europe. Instead, many encountered social stigmatization, detention and/or discrimination for being illegal migrants, for lacking resources and for simply being Muslim. This research will examine how Islamic extremist groups are exploiting the disenfranchisement of these migrant populations and using populist messaging on social media to influence them towards violent extremism. ISIS, in particular, formulates specific encoded messages for newly-arriving Muslims in Europe, preying upon their vulnerability. Violence is posited, as a populist response, to the tyranny of European oppression. This research will analyze the factors and indicators which propel Muslim migrants along the spectrum from resilience to violence extremism. Expected outcomes are identification of factors which influence vulnerability towards violent extremism; an early-warning detection framework; predictive analysis models; and de-radicalization frameworks. This research will provide valuable tools (practical and policy level) for European governments, security stakeholders, communities, policy-makers, and educators; it is anticipated to contribute to a de-escalation of Islamic extremism globally.

Keywords: populism, radicalization, de-radicalization, social media, ISIS, Taliban, shariah, jihad, Islam, Europe, political communication, terrorism, migrants, refugees, extremism, global terror, predictive analysis, early warning detection, models, strategic communication, populist narratives, Islamic extremism

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9701 Improving Screening and Treatment of Binge Eating Disorders in Pediatric Weight Management Clinic through a Quality Improvement Framework

Authors: Cristina Fernandez, Felix Amparano, John Tumberger, Stephani Stancil, Sarah Hampl, Brooke Sweeney, Amy R. Beck, Helena H Laroche, Jared Tucker, Eileen Chaves, Sara Gould, Matthew Lindquist, Lora Edwards, Renee Arensberg, Meredith Dreyer, Jazmine Cedeno, Alleen Cummins, Jennifer Lisondra, Katie Cox, Kelsey Dean, Rachel Perera, Nicholas A. Clark

Abstract:

Background: Adolescents with obesity are at higher risk of disordered eating than the general population. Detection of eating disorders (ED) is difficult. Screening questionnaires may aid in early detection of ED. Our team’s prior efforts focused on increasing ED screening rates to ≥90% using a validated 10-question adolescent binge eating disorder screening questionnaire (ADO-BED). This aim was achieved. We then aimed to improve treatment plan initiation of patients ≥12 years of age who screen positive for BED within our WMC from 33% to 70% within 12 months. Methods: Our WMC is within a tertiary-care, free-standing children’s hospital. A3, an improvement framework, was used. A multidisciplinary team (physicians, nurses, registered dietitians, psychologists, and exercise physiologists) was created. The outcome measure was documentation of treatment plan initiation of those who screen positive (goal 70%). The process measure was ADO-BED screening rate of WMC patients (goal ≥90%). Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) cycle 1 included provider education on current literature and treatment plan initiation based upon ADO-BED responses. PDSA 2 involved increasing documentation of treatment plan and retrain process to providers. Pre-defined treatment plans were: 1) repeat screen in 3-6 months, 2) resources provided only, or 3) comprehensive multidisciplinary weight management team evaluation. Run charts monitored impact over time. Results: Within 9 months, 166 patients were seen in WMC. Process measure showed sustained performance above goal (mean 98%). Outcome measure showed special cause improvement from mean of 33% to 100% (n=31). Of treatment plans provided, 45% received Plan 1, 4% Plan 2, and 46% Plan 3. Conclusion: Through a multidisciplinary improvement team approach, we maintained sustained ADO-BED screening performance, and, prior to our 12-month timeline, achieved our project aim. Our efforts may serve as a model for other multidisciplinary WMCs. Next steps may include expanding project scope to other WM programs.

Keywords: obesity, pediatrics, clinic, eating disorder

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9700 Life Cycle Assessment of Todays and Future Electricity Grid Mixes of EU27

Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Rafael Horn, Matthias Fischer

Abstract:

At the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2015 a global agreement on the reduction of climate change was achieved stating CO₂ reduction targets for all countries. For instance, the EU targets a reduction of 40 percent in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. In order to achieve this ambitious goal, the environmental performance of the different European electricity grid mixes is crucial. First, the electricity directly needed for everyone’s daily life (e.g. heating, plug load, mobility) and therefore a reduction of the environmental impacts of the electricity grid mix reduces the overall environmental impacts of a country. Secondly, the manufacturing of every product depends on electricity. Thereby a reduction of the environmental impacts of the electricity mix results in a further decrease of environmental impacts of every product. As a result, the implementation of the two-degree goal highly depends on the decarbonization of the European electricity mixes. Currently the production of electricity in the EU27 is based on fossil fuels and therefore bears a high GWP impact per kWh. Due to the importance of the environmental impacts of the electricity mix, not only today but also in future, within the European research projects, CommONEnergy and Senskin, time-dynamic Life Cycle Assessment models for all EU27 countries were set up. As a methodology, a combination of scenario modeling and life cycle assessment according to ISO14040 and ISO14044 was conducted. Based on EU27 trends regarding energy, transport, and buildings, the different national electricity mixes were investigated taking into account future changes such as amount of electricity generated in the country, change in electricity carriers, COP of the power plants and distribution losses, imports and exports. As results, time-dynamic environmental profiles for the electricity mixes of each country and for Europe overall were set up. Thereby for each European country, the decarbonization strategies of the electricity mix are critically investigated in order to identify decisions, that can lead to negative environmental effects, for instance on the reduction of the global warming of the electricity mix. For example, the withdrawal of the nuclear energy program in Germany and at the same time compensation of the missing energy by non-renewable energy carriers like lignite and natural gas is resulting in an increase in global warming potential of electricity grid mix. Just after two years this increase countervailed by the higher share of renewable energy carriers such as wind power and photovoltaic. Finally, as an outlook a first qualitative picture is provided, illustrating from environmental perspective, which country has the highest potential for low-carbon electricity production and therefore how investments in a connected European electricity grid could decrease the environmental impacts of the electricity mix in Europe.

Keywords: electricity grid mixes, EU27 countries, environmental impacts, future trends, life cycle assessment, scenario analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 173
9699 Insider Theft Detection in Organizations Using Keylogger and Machine Learning

Authors: Shamatha Shetty, Sakshi Dhabadi, Prerana M., Indushree B.

Abstract:

About 66% of firms claim that insider attacks are more likely to happen. The frequency of insider incidents has increased by 47% in the last two years. The goal of this work is to prevent dangerous employee behavior by using keyloggers and the Machine Learning (ML) model. Every keystroke that the user enters is recorded by the keylogging program, also known as keystroke logging. Keyloggers are used to stop improper use of the system. This enables us to collect all textual data, save it in a CSV file, and analyze it using an ML algorithm and the VirusTotal API. Many large companies use it to methodically monitor how their employees use computers, the internet, and email. We are utilizing the SVM algorithm and the VirusTotal API to improve overall efficiency and accuracy in identifying specific patterns and words to automate and offer the report for improved monitoring.

Keywords: cyber security, machine learning, cyclic process, email notification

Procedia PDF Downloads 41
9698 The Implementation of Human Resource Information System in the Public Sector: An Exploratory Study of Perceived Benefits and Challenges

Authors: Aneeqa Suhail, Shabana Naveed

Abstract:

The public sector (in both developed and developing countries) has gone through various waves of radical reforms in recent decades. In Pakistan, under the influence of New Public Management(NPM) Reforms; best practices of private sector are introduced in the public sector to modernize public organizations. Human Resource Information System (HRIS) has been popular in the private sector and proven to be a successful system, therefore it is being adopted in the public sector too. However, implementation of private business practices in public organizations us very challenging due to differences in context. This implementation gets further critical in Pakistan due to a centralizing tendency and lack of autonomy in public organizations. Adoption of HRIS by public organizations in Pakistan raises several questions: What challenges are faced by public organizations in implementation of HRIS? Are benefits of HRIS such as efficiency, process integration and cost reduction achieved? How is the previous system improved with this change and what are the impacts? Yet, it is an under-researched topic, especially in public enterprises. This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by empirically exploring benefits and challenges of implementation of HRIS in public organizations. The research adopts a case study approach and uses qualitative data based on in-depth interviews conducted at various levels in the hierarchy including top management, departmental heads and employees. The unit of analysis is LESCO, the Lahore Electric Supply Company, a state-owned entity that generates, transmits and distributes electricity to 4 big cities in Punjab, Pakistan. The findings of the study show that LESCO has not achieved the benefits of HRIS as established in literature. The implementation process remained quite slow and costly. Various functions of HR are still in isolation and integration is a big challenge for the organization. Although the data is automated, the previous system of manually record maintenance and paperwork is still in work, resulting in the presence of parallel practices. The findings also identified resistance to change from top management and labor workforce, lack of commitment and technical knowledge, and costly vendors as major barriers that affect the effective implementation of HRIS. The paper suggests some potential actions to overcome these barriers and to enhance effective implementation of HR-technology. The findings are explained in light of an institutional logics perspective. HRIS’ new logic of automated and integrated HR system is in sharp contrast with the prevailing logic of process-oriented manual data maintenance, leading to resistance to change and deadlock.

Keywords: human resource information system, technological changes, state-owned enterprise, implementation challenges

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
9697 Identifying Lead Poisoning Risk Factors among Non-Pregnant Adults in New York City through Motivational Interviewing Techniques

Authors: Nevila Bardhi, Joanna Magda, Kolapo Alex-Oni, Slavenka Sedlar, Paromita Hore

Abstract:

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOHMH) receives blood lead test results for NYC residents and conducts lead poisoning case investigations for individuals with elevated blood lead levels exposed to lead occupationally and non-occupationally. To (1) improve participant engagement, (2) aid the identification of potential lead sources, and (3) better tailor recommendations to reduce lead exposure, Motivational Interviewing (MI) techniques were incorporated during risk assessment interviews of non-pregnant adults by DOHMH’s Adult Lead Poisoning Prevention (ALP) Program. MI is an evidence-based counselling method used in clinical settings that have been effective in promoting behavior change by resolving ambivalence and enhancing motivation in treating both physiological and psychological health conditions. The incorporation of MI techniques in the ALP risk assessment interview was effective in improving the identification of lead sources for non-pregnant adult cases, thus, allowing for the opportunity to better tailor lead poisoning prevention recommendations. The embedding of MI cues in the ALP risk assessment interview also significantly increased engagement in the interview process, resulting in approximately 50 more interviews conducted per year and a decrease in interview refusals during case investigations. Additionally, the pre-MI interview completion rate was 57%, while the post-MI Interview completion rate was 68%. We recommend MI techniques to be used by other lead poisoning prevention programs during lead poisoning investigations in similar diverse populations.

Keywords: lead poisoning prevention, motivational interviewing, behavior change, lead poisoning risk factors, self-efficacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 70
9696 Adolescent-Parent Relationship as the Most Important Factor in Preventing Mood Disorders in Adolescents: An Application of Artificial Intelligence to Social Studies

Authors: Elżbieta Turska

Abstract:

Introduction: One of the most difficult times in a person’s life is adolescence. The experiences in this period may shape the future life of this person to a large extent. This is the reason why many young people experience sadness, dejection, hopelessness, sense of worthlessness, as well as losing interest in various activities and social relationships, all of which are often classified as mood disorders. As many as 15-40% adolescents experience depressed moods and for most of them they resolve and are not carried into adulthood. However, (5-6%) of those affected by mood disorders develop the depressive syndrome and as many as (1-3%) develop full-blown clinical depression. Materials: A large questionnaire was given to 2508 students, aged 13–16 years old, and one of its parts was the Burns checklist, i.e. the standard test for identifying depressed mood. The questionnaire asked about many aspects of the student’s life, it included a total of 53 questions, most of which had subquestions. It is important to note that the data suffered from many problems, the most important of which were missing data and collinearity. Aim: In order to identify the correlates of mood disorders we built predictive models which were then trained and validated. Our aim was not to be able to predict which students suffer from mood disorders but rather to explore the factors influencing mood disorders. Methods: The problems with data described above practically excluded using all classical statistical methods. For this reason, we attempted to use the following Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods: classification trees with surrogate variables, random forests and xgboost. All analyses were carried out with the use of the mlr package for the R programming language. Resuts: The predictive model built by classification trees algorithm outperformed the other algorithms by a large margin. As a result, we were able to rank the variables (questions and subquestions from the questionnaire) from the most to least influential as far as protection against mood disorder is concerned. Thirteen out of twenty most important variables reflect the relationships with parents. This seems to be a really significant result both from the cognitive point of view and also from the practical point of view, i.e. as far as interventions to correct mood disorders are concerned.

Keywords: mood disorders, adolescents, family, artificial intelligence

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
9695 A Review of Applying Serious Games on Learning

Authors: Carlos Oliveira, Ulrick Pimentel

Abstract:

Digital games have conquered a growing space in the lives of children, adolescents and adults. In this perspective, the use of this resource has shown to be an important strategy that facilitates the learning process. This research is a literature review on the use of serious games in teaching, which shows the characteristics of these games, the benefits and possible harms that this resource can produce, in addition to the possible methods of evaluating the effectiveness of this resource in teaching. The results point out that Serious Games have significant potential as a tool for instruction. However, their effectiveness in terms of learning outcomes is still poorly studied, mainly due to the complexity involved in evaluating intangible measures.

Keywords: serious games, learning, application, literature review

Procedia PDF Downloads 292
9694 Digital Transformation in Fashion System Design: Tools and Opportunities

Authors: Margherita Tufarelli, Leonardo Giliberti, Elena Pucci

Abstract:

The fashion industry's interest in virtuality is linked, on the one hand, to the emotional and immersive possibilities of digital resources and the resulting languages and, on the other, to the greater efficiency that can be achieved throughout the value chain. The interaction between digital innovation and deep-rooted manufacturing traditions today translates into a paradigm shift for the entire fashion industry where, for example, the traditional values of industrial secrecy and know-how give way to experimentation in an open as well as participatory way, and the complete emancipation of virtual reality from actual 'reality'. The contribution aims to investigate the theme of digitisation in the Italian fashion industry, analysing its opportunities and the criticalities that have hindered its diffusion. There are two reasons why the most common approach in the fashion sector is still analogue: (i) the fashion product lives in close contact with the human body, so the sensory perception of materials plays a central role in both the use and the design of the product, but current technology is not able to restore the sense of touch; (ii) volumes are obtained by stitching flat surfaces that once assembled, given the flexibility of the material, can assume almost infinite configurations. Managing the fit and styling of virtual garments involves a wide range of factors, including mechanical simulation, collision detection, and user interface techniques for garment creation. After briefly reviewing some of the salient historical milestones in the resolution of problems related to the digital simulation of deformable materials and the user interface for the procedures for the realisation of the clothing system, the paper will describe the operation and possibilities offered today by the latest generation of specialised software. Parametric avatars and digital sartorial approach; drawing tools optimised for pattern making; materials both from the point of view of simulated physical behaviour and of aesthetic performance, tools for checking wearability, renderings, but also tools and procedures useful to companies both for dialogue with prototyping software and machinery and for managing the archive and the variants to be made. The article demonstrates how developments in technology and digital procedures now make it possible to intervene in different stages of design in the fashion industry. An integrated and additive process in which the constructed 3D models are usable both in the prototyping and communication of physical products and in the possible exclusively digital uses of 3D models in the new generation of virtual spaces. Mastering such tools requires the acquisition of specific digital skills and, at the same time, traditional skills for the design of the clothing system, but the benefits are manifold and applicable to different business dimensions. We are only at the beginning of the global digital transformation: the emergence of new professional figures and design dynamics leaves room for imagination, but in addition to applying digital tools to traditional procedures, traditional fashion know-how needs to be transferred into emerging digital practices to ensure the continuity of the technical-cultural heritage beyond the transformation.

Keywords: digital fashion, digital technology and couture, digital fashion communication, 3D garment simulation

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9693 Nonstationarity Modeling of Economic and Financial Time Series

Authors: C. Slim

Abstract:

Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series, ADF tests

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9692 Crooked Wood: Finding Potential in Local Hardwood

Authors: Livia Herle

Abstract:

A large part of the Principality of Liechtenstein is covered by forest. Three-quarters of this forest is defined as protective due to the alpine landscape of the country, which is deteriorating the quality of the wood. Nevertheless, the forest is one of the most important sources of raw material. However, out of the wood harvested annually in Liechtenstein, about two-thirds are used directly as an energy source, drastically shortening up the carbon storage cycle of wood. Furthermore, due to climate change, forest structures are changing. Predictions for the forest in Liechtenstein have stated that the spruce will mostly vanish in low altitudes, only being able to survive in the higher regions. In contrast, hardwood species will experience a rise, resulting in a more mixed forest. Thus, the main research focus will be put upon the potential of hardwood as well as prolonging the lifespan of a timber log before ending up as an energy source. An analysis of the local occurrence of hardwood species and their quality will serve as a tool to implement this knowledge upon constructional solutions. As a system that works with short spam timber and thus qualifies for the regional conditions of hardwood, reciprocal frame systems will be further investigated. These can be defined as load-bearing structures with only two beams connecting at a time, avoiding complex joining situations. Furthermore, every beam is mutually supporting. This allows the usage of short pieces of preferably massive wood. As a result, the system permits for an easy assembly but also disassembly. To promote a more circular application of wood, possible cascading scenarios of the structural solutions will be added. In a workshop at the School of Architecture of the University of Liechtenstein in the Sommer Semester 2024, prototypes in 1:1 of reciprocal frame systems using only local hardwood will help as a tool to further test the theoretical analyses.

Keywords: hardwood, cascading wood, reciprocal frames, crooked wood, forest structures, climate change

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9691 Educational Plan and Program of the Subject: Maintenance of Electric Power Equipment

Authors: Rade M. Ciric, Sasa Mandic

Abstract:

Students of Higher Education Technical School of Professional Studies, in Novi Sad follow the subject Maintenance of electric power equipment at the Electrotechnical Department. This paper presents educational plan and program of the subject Maintenance of electric power equipment. The course deals with the problems of preventive and investing maintenance of transformer stations (TS), performing and maintenance of grounding of TS and pillars, as well as tracing and detection the location of the cables failure. There is a special elaborated subject concerning the safe work conditions for the electrician during network maintenance, as well as the basics of making and keeping technical documentation of the equipment.

Keywords: educational plan and program, electric power equipment, maintenance, technical documentation, safe work

Procedia PDF Downloads 443
9690 Simple Ways to Enhance the Security of Web Services

Authors: Majid Azarniush, Soroush Mokallaei

Abstract:

Although robust security software, including anti-viruses, anti spy wares, anti-spam and firewalls, are amalgamated with new technologies such as Safe Zone, Hybrid Cloud, Sand Box etc., and it can be said that they have managed to prepare highest level of security against viruses, spy wares and other malwares in 2012, but in fact hackers' attacks to websites are increasingly becoming more and more complicated. Because of security matters and developments, it can be said that it was expected to happen so. Here in this work, we try to point out to some functional and vital notes to enhance security on the web enabling the user to browse safely in no limit web world and to use virtual space securely.

Keywords: firewalls, security, web services, software

Procedia PDF Downloads 488
9689 Correlation Matrix for Automatic Identification of Meal-Taking Activity

Authors: Ghazi Bouaziz, Abderrahim Derouiche, Damien Brulin, Hélène Pigot, Eric Campo

Abstract:

Automatic ADL classification is a crucial part of ambient assisted living technologies. It allows to monitor the daily life of the elderly and to detect any changes in their behavior that could be related to health problem. But detection of ADLs is a challenge, especially because each person has his/her own rhythm for performing them. Therefore, we used a correlation matrix to extract custom rules that enable to detect ADLs, including eating activity. Data collected from 3 different individuals between 35 and 105 days allows the extraction of personalized eating patterns. The comparison of the results of the process of eating activity extracted from the correlation matrices with the declarative data collected during the survey shows an accuracy of 90%.

Keywords: elderly monitoring, ADL identification, matrix correlation, meal-taking activity

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9688 Tumor Detection Using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) Based Neural Network

Authors: Vinai K. Singh

Abstract:

In Neural Network-based Learning techniques, there are several models of Convolutional Networks. Whenever the methods are deployed with large datasets, only then can their applicability and appropriateness be determined. Clinical and pathological pictures of lobular carcinoma are thought to exhibit a large number of random formations and textures. Working with such pictures is a difficult problem in machine learning. Focusing on wet laboratories and following the outcomes, numerous studies have been published with fresh commentaries in the investigation. In this research, we provide a framework that can operate effectively on raw photos of various resolutions while easing the issues caused by the existence of patterns and texturing. The suggested approach produces very good findings that may be used to make decisions in the diagnosis of cancer.

Keywords: lobular carcinoma, convolutional neural networks (CNN), deep learning, histopathological imagery scans

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9687 Valorization of Surveillance Data and Assessment of the Sensitivity of a Surveillance System for an Infectious Disease Using a Capture-Recapture Model

Authors: Jean-Philippe Amat, Timothée Vergne, Aymeric Hans, Bénédicte Ferry, Pascal Hendrikx, Jackie Tapprest, Barbara Dufour, Agnès Leblond

Abstract:

The surveillance of infectious diseases is necessary to describe their occurrence and help the planning, implementation and evaluation of risk mitigation activities. However, the exact number of detected cases may remain unknown whether surveillance is based on serological tests because identifying seroconversion may be difficult. Moreover, incomplete detection of cases or outbreaks is a recurrent issue in the field of disease surveillance. This study addresses these two issues. Using a viral animal disease as an example (equine viral arteritis), the goals were to establish suitable rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of cases and outbreaks detected by a surveillance system in France between 2006 and 2013, and to assess the sensitivity of this system by estimating the total number of outbreaks that occurred during this period (including unreported outbreaks) using a capture-recapture model. Data from horses which exhibited at least one positive result in serology using viral neutralization test between 2006 and 2013 were used for analysis (n=1,645). Data consisted of the annual antibody titers and the location of the subjects (towns). A consensus among multidisciplinary experts (specialists in the disease and its laboratory diagnosis, epidemiologists) was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32 or as a three-fold or greater increase. The number of seroconversions was counted for each town and modeled using a unilist zero-truncated binomial (ZTB) capture-recapture model with R software. The binomial denominator was the number of horses tested in each infected town. Using the defined rules, 239 cases located in 177 towns (outbreaks) were identified from 2006 to 2013. Subsequently, the sensitivity of the surveillance system was estimated as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using the ZTB model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval CrI95%: 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95%: 71-91). The rules proposed for identifying seroconversion may serve future research. Such rules, adjusted to the local environment, could conceivably be applied in other countries with surveillance programs dedicated to this disease. More generally, defining ad hoc algorithms for interpreting the antibody titer could be useful regarding other human and animal diseases and zoonosis when there is a lack of accurate information in the literature about the serological response in naturally infected subjects. This study shows how capture-recapture methods may help to estimate the sensitivity of an imperfect surveillance system and to valorize surveillance data. The sensitivity of the surveillance system of equine viral arteritis is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, capture-recapture, epidemiology, equine viral arteritis, infectious disease, seroconversion, surveillance

Procedia PDF Downloads 282