Search results for: trends of automation
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 1905

Search results for: trends of automation

1545 A 20 Year Comparison of Australian Childhood Bicycle Injuries – Have We Made a Difference?

Authors: Bronwyn Griffin, Caroline Acton, Tona Gillen, Roy Kimble

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Background: Bicycle riding is a common recreational activity enjoyed by many children throughout Australia that has been associated with the usual caveat of benefits related to exercise and recreation. Given Australia was the first country in the world to introduce cyclist helmet laws in 1991, very few publications have reviewed paediatric cycling injuries (fatal or non-fatal) since. Objectives: To identify trends in children (0-16 years) who required admission for greater than 24 hours following a bicycle-related injury (fatal and non-fatal) in Queensland. Further, to discuss changes that have occurred in paediatric cycling injury trends in Queensland since a prominent local study/publication in 1995. This paper aims to establish evidence to inform interventions promoting safer riding to parents, children and communities. Methods: Data on paediatric (0-16 years) cycling injuries in Queensland resulting in hospital admission more than 24 hours across three tertiary paediatric hospitals in Brisbane between November 2008-June 2015 was compiled by the Paediatric Trauma Data Registry for non-fatal injuries. The Child Death Review Team at the Queensland Families and Childhood Commission provided data on fatalities in children <17years from (June 2004 –June 2015). Comparing trends to a local study published in 1995 Results: Between 2008-2015 there were 197 patients admitted for greater than 24 hours following a cycling injury. The median age was 11 years, with males more frequently involved (n=139, 87%) compared to females. Mean length of stay was three days, with 47 (28%) children admitted to PICU, location of injury was most often the street (n=63, 37%). Between 2004 –2015 there were 15 fatalities (Incidence rate 0.25/100,000); all were male, 14/15 occurred on the street, with eight stated to have not been wearing a helmet, 11/15 children came from the least advantaged socio-economic group (SEIFA) compared to a local publication in 1995, finding of 94 fatalities between (1981-1992). Conclusions: There has been a notable decrease in incidence of fatalities between the two time periods with incidence rates dropping from 1.75-0.25/100,000. More statistics need to be run to ascertain if this is a true reduction or perhaps a decrease in children riding bicycles. Injuries that occur on the street that come in contact with a car remain of serious concern. The purpose of this paper is not to discourage bicycle riding among child and adolescent populations, rather, inform parents and the wider community about the risks associated with cycling in order to reduce injuries associated with this sport, whilst promoting safe cycling.

Keywords: paediatric, cycling, trauma, prevention, emergency

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1544 Future of Electric Power Generation Technologies: Environmental and Economic Comparison

Authors: Abdulrahman A. Bahaddad, Mohammed Beshir

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The objective of this paper is to demonstrate and describe eight different types of power generation technologies and to understand the history and future trends of each technology. In addition, a comparative analysis between these technologies will be presented with respect to their cost analysis and associated performance.

Keywords: conventional power generation, economic analysis, environmental impact, renewable energy power generation

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1543 Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological System of the Harvey River Catchment

Authors: Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi, P. Ranjan Sarukkalige

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Climate change is likely to impact the Australian continent by changing the trends of rainfall, increasing temperature, and affecting the accessibility of water quantity and quality. This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on the hydrological system of the Harvey River catchment in Western Australia by using the conceptual modelling approach (HBV mode). Daily observations of rainfall and temperature and the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration, from six weather stations, were available for the period (1961-2015). The observed streamflow data at Clifton Park gauging station for 33 years (1983-2015) in line with the observed climate variables were used to run, calibrate and validate the HBV-model prior to the simulation process. The calibrated model was then forced with the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of fifteen GCMs of the CMIP3 model under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) to simulate the future runoff at the catchment outlet. Two periods were selected to represent the future climate conditions including the mid (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) of the 21st century. A control run, with the reference climate period (1981-2000), was used to represent the current climate status. The modelling outcomes show an evident reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid of this century particularly for the A1B scenario relative to the control run. Toward the end of the century, all scenarios show a relatively high reduction trends in the mean annual streamflow, especially the A1B scenario, compared to the control run. The decline in the mean annual streamflow ranged between 4-15% during the mid of the current century and 9-42% by the end of the century.

Keywords: climate change impact, Harvey catchment, HBV model, hydrological modelling, GCMs, LARS-WG

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1542 Distributional and Developmental Analysis of PM2.5 in Beijing, China

Authors: Alexander K. Guo

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PM2.5 poses a large threat to people’s health and the environment and is an issue of large concern in Beijing, brought to the attention of the government by the media. In addition, both the United States Embassy in Beijing and the government of China have increased monitoring of PM2.5 in recent years, and have made real-time data available to the public. This report utilizes hourly historical data (2008-2016) from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing for the first time. The first objective was to attempt to fit probability distributions to the data to better predict a number of days exceeding the standard, and the second was to uncover any yearly, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly patterns and trends that may arise to better understand of air control policy. In these data, 66,650 hours and 2687 days provided valid data. Lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions were fit to the data through an estimation of parameters. The Chi-squared test was employed to compare the actual data with the fitted distributions. The data were used to uncover trends, patterns, and improvements in PM2.5 concentration over the period of time with valid data in addition to specific periods of time that received large amounts of media attention, analyzed to gain a better understanding of causes of air pollution. The data show a clear indication that Beijing’s air quality is unhealthy, with an average of 94.07µg/m3 across all 66,650 hours with valid data. It was found that no distribution fit the entire dataset of all 2687 days well, but each of the three above distribution types was optimal in at least one of the yearly data sets, with the lognormal distribution found to fit recent years better. An improvement in air quality beginning in 2014 was discovered, with the first five months of 2016 reporting an average PM2.5 concentration that is 23.8% lower than the average of the same period in all years, perhaps the result of various new pollution-control policies. It was also found that the winter and fall months contained more days in both good and extremely polluted categories, leading to a higher average but a comparable median in these months. Additionally, the evening hours, especially in the winter, reported much higher PM2.5 concentrations than the afternoon hours, possibly due to the prohibition of trucks in the city in the daytime and the increased use of coal for heating in the colder months when residents are home in the evening. Lastly, through analysis of special intervals that attracted media attention for either unnaturally good or bad air quality, the government’s temporary pollution control measures, such as more intensive road-space rationing and factory closures, are shown to be effective. In summary, air quality in Beijing is improving steadily and do follow standard probability distributions to an extent, but still needs improvement. Analysis will be updated when new data become available.

Keywords: Beijing, distribution, patterns, pm2.5, trends

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1541 Orchids of Coastal Karnataka, India: Diversity, Trends in Population, Threats and Conservation Strategies

Authors: Sankaran Potti Narasimhan

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Costal Karnataka is sandwiched between Arabian Sea and the biodiversity hotspot of Western Ghats. This has provided a rich vegetation, canopy and humidity for the sustainable growth and evolution of many orchid populations. Similar to many other biodiversity hostpot regions of India and the world, this region also faces threat from anthropogenic activities and climate change. Hence, there is a need to study the current orchid diversity and trends in population as well as an effective conservation strategy. Costal belt of Karnataka state of India extends over 325 kilometers and an area of 18,000 km2. The region encompasses two national parks such as the Anshi National Park and the Kudremukh National Park. The study regions also include two Wild Life Sanctuaries such as the Someshwara Wildlife Sanctuary and Mookambika Wildlife Sanctuary. The estimated number of orchids in the region includes 30 genera and 45 species. Both terrestrial and epiphytic orchids are found in this region. The region contains many red listed orchids such as Trias stocksii (Critically endangered), Eriad alzellii (Lower risk vulnerable) and Dendrobnium ovatum (Vulnerable). The important terrestrial orchids of the region are Geodorum, Habenaria, Lipparis, Malaxis, Nervilia, Pachystoma, Pectelis, Peristylus, Tropidia and Zeuxine. The epiphytic forms includes Acampe, Aerides, Bulbophyllum, Cleisostoma, Conchidum, Cottonia, Cymbidium, Dendronium, Eria, Flickingeria, Gastrochilus, Kingidium, Luisia, Oberonia, Phalaenopsis, Pholidota, Porpax, Rhynchostylis, Sirhookera and Trias. The current paper discusses the population strength and changes in the population structure of these orchids along with proposed conservation strategies.

Keywords: orchid diversity, bulbophyllum, dendrobium, orchid conservation

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1540 An Approximation Technique to Automate Tron

Authors: P. Jayashree, S. Rajkumar

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With the trend of virtual and augmented reality environments booming to provide a life like experience, gaming is a major tool in supporting such learning environments. In this work, a variant of Voronoi heuristics, employing supervised learning for the TRON game is proposed. The paper discusses the features that would be really useful when a machine learning bot is to be used as an opponent against a human player. Various game scenarios, nature of the bot and the experimental results are provided for the proposed variant to prove that the approach is better than those that are currently followed.

Keywords: artificial Intelligence, automation, machine learning, TRON game, Voronoi heuristics

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1539 On Adaptive and Auto-Configurable Apps

Authors: Prisa Damrongsiri, Kittinan Pongpianskul, Mario Kubek, Herwig Unger

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Apps are today the most important possibility to adapt mobile phones and computers to fulfill the special needs of their users. Location- and context-sensitive programs are hereby the key to support the interaction of the user with his/her environment and also to avoid an overload with a plenty of dispensable information. The contribution shows, how a trusted, secure and really bi-directional communication and interaction among users and their environment can be established and used, e.g. in the field of home automation.

Keywords: apps, context-sensitive, location-sensitive, self-configuration, mobile computing, smart home

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1538 The 'Toshi-No-Sakon' Phenomenon: A Trend in Japanese Family Formations

Authors: Franco Lorenzo D. Morales

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‘Toshi-no-sakon,’ which translates to as ‘age gap marriage,’ is a term that has been popularized by celebrity couples in the Japanese entertainment industry. Japan is distinct for a developed nation for its rapidly aging population, declining marital and fertility rates, and the reinforcement of traditional gender roles. Statistical data has shown that the average age of marriage in Japan is increasing every year, showing a growing tendency for late marriage. As a result, the government has been trying to curb the declining trends by encouraging marriage and childbirth among the populace. This graduate thesis seeks to analyze the ‘toshi-no-sakon’ phenomenon in lieu of Japan’s current economic and social situation, and to see what the implications are for these kinds of married couples. This research also seeks to expound more on age gaps within married couples, which is a factor rarely-touched upon in Japanese family studies. A literature review was first performed in order to provide a framework to study ‘toshi-no-sakon’ from the perspective of four fields of study—marriage, family, aging, and gender. Numerous anonymous online statements by ‘toshi-no-sakon’ couples were then collected and analyzed, which brought to light a number of concerns. Couples wherein the husband is the older partner were prioritized in order to narrow down the focus of the research, and ‘toshi-no-sakon’ is only considered when the couple’s age gap is ten years or more. Current findings suggest that one of the perceived merits for a woman to marry an older man is that financial security would be guaranteed. However, this has been shown to be untrue as a number of couples express concern regarding their financial situation, which could be attributed to their husband’s socio-economic status. Having an older husband who is approaching the age of retirement presents another dilemma as the wife would be more obliged to provide care for her aging husband. This notion of the wife being a caregiver likely stems from an arrangement once common in Japanese families in which the wife must primarily care for her husband’s elderly parents. Childbearing is another concern as couples would be pressured to have a child right away due to the age of the husband, in addition to limiting the couple’s ideal number of children. This is another problematic aspect as the husband would have to provide income until his child has finished their education, implying that retirement would have to be delayed indefinitely. It is highly recommended that future studies conduct face-to-face interviews with couples and families who fall under the category of ‘toshi-no-sakon’ in order to gain a more in-depth perspective into the phenomenon and to reveal any undiscovered trends. Cases wherein the wife is the older partner in the relationship should also be given focus in future studies involving ‘toshi-no-sakon’.

Keywords: age gap, family structure, gender roles, marriage trends

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1537 Argentine Immigrant Policy: A Qualitative Analysis of Changes and Trends from 2016 on

Authors: Romeu Bonk Mesquita

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Argentina is the South American number 1 country of destiny to intraregional migration flows. This research aims to shed light on the main trends of the Argentine immigrant policy from 2016 on, when Mauricio Marci was elected President, taking the approval of the current and fairly protective of human rights Ley de Migraciones (2003) as an analytical starting point. Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) serves as the theoretical background, highlighting decision-making processes and institutional designs that encourage or constraint political and social actors. The analysis goes through domestic and international levels, observing how immigration policy is formulated as a public policy and is simultaneously connected to Mercosur and other international organizations, such as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Thus, the study revolves around the Direccion Nacional de Migraciones, which is the state agency in charge of executing the country’s immigrant policy, as to comprehend how its internal processes and the connections it has with both domestic and international institutions shape Argentina’s immigrant policy formulation and execution. Also, it aims to locate the migration agenda within the country’s contemporary social and political context. The methodology is qualitative, case-based and oriented by process-tracing techniques. Empirical evidence gathered includes official documents and data, media coverage and interviews to key-informants. Recent events, such as the Decreto de Necesidad y Urgencia 70/2017 issued by President Macri, and the return of discursive association between migration and criminality, indicate a trend of nationalization and securitization of the immigration policy in contemporary Argentina.

Keywords: Argentine foreign policy, human rights, immigrant policy, Mercosur

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1536 Railway Process Automation to Ensure Human Safety with the Aid of IoT and Image Processing

Authors: K. S. Vedasingha, K. K. M. T. Perera, K. I. Hathurusinghe, H. W. I. Akalanka, Nelum Chathuranga Amarasena, Nalaka R. Dissanayake

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Railways provide the most convenient and economically beneficial mode of transportation, and it has been the most popular transportation method among all. According to the past analyzed data, it reveals a considerable number of accidents which occurred at railways and caused damages to not only precious lives but also to the economy of the countries. There are some major issues which need to be addressed in railways of South Asian countries since they fall under the developing category. The goal of this research is to minimize the influencing aspect of railway level crossing accidents by developing the “railway process automation system”, as there are high-risk areas that are prone to accidents, and safety at these places is of utmost significance. This paper describes the implementation methodology and the success of the study. The main purpose of the system is to ensure human safety by using the Internet of Things (IoT) and image processing techniques. The system can detect the current location of the train and close the railway gate automatically. And it is possible to do the above-mentioned process through a decision-making system by using past data. The specialty is both processes working parallel. As usual, if the system fails to close the railway gate due to technical or a network failure, the proposed system can identify the current location and close the railway gate through a decision-making system, which is a revolutionary feature. The proposed system introduces further two features to reduce the causes of railway accidents. Railway track crack detection and motion detection are those features which play a significant role in reducing the risk of railway accidents. Moreover, the system is capable of detecting rule violations at a level crossing by using sensors. The proposed system is implemented through a prototype, and it is tested with real-world scenarios to gain the above 90% of accuracy.

Keywords: crack detection, decision-making, image processing, Internet of Things, motion detection, prototype, sensors

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1535 A Review of Emerging Technologies in Antennas and Phased Arrays for Avionics Systems

Authors: Muhammad Safi, Abdul Manan

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In recent years, research in aircraft avionics systems (i.e., radars and antennas) has grown revolutionary. Aircraft technology is experiencing an increasing inclination from all mechanical to all electrical aircraft, with the introduction of inhabitant air vehicles and drone taxis over the last few years. This develops an overriding need to summarize the history, latest trends, and future development in aircraft avionics research for a better understanding and development of new technologies in the domain of avionics systems. This paper focuses on the future trends in antennas and phased arrays for avionics systems. Along with the general overview of the future avionics trend, this work describes the review of around 50 high-quality research papers on aircraft communication systems. Electric-powered aircraft have been a hot topic in the modern aircraft world. Electric aircraft have supremacy over their conventional counterparts. Due to increased drone taxi and urban air mobility, fast and reliable communication is very important, so concepts of Broadband Integrated Digital Avionics Information Exchange Networks (B-IDAIENs) and Modular Avionics are being researched for better communication of future aircraft. A Ku-band phased array antenna based on a modular design can be used in a modular avionics system. Furthermore, integrated avionics is also emerging research in future avionics. The main focus of work in future avionics will be using integrated modular avionics and infra-red phased array antennas, which are discussed in detail in this paper. Other work such as reconfigurable antennas and optical communication, are also discussed in this paper. The future of modern aircraft avionics would be based on integrated modulated avionics and small artificial intelligence-based antennas. Optical and infrared communication will also replace microwave frequencies.

Keywords: AI, avionics systems, communication, electric aircrafts, infra-red, integrated avionics, modular avionics, phased array, reconfigurable antenna, UAVs

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1534 Socio-Economic and Environmental Impact of Urban Sprawl: A Case Study Adigrat City, Tigray, Ethiopia

Authors: Fikre Belay Tekulu

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This thesis presents the socio-economic and environmental impacts of urban sprawl in the case of Adigrat city, Tigray Region, Ethiopia. The main objective of this research is to assess major causes, trends and socio-economic and environmental impacts of the urban sprawl of Adigrat city. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative methods as questionnaires, interviews and observation used for data collection. Simple random sampling has been used to select the participants. The land use and land cover change for agricultural land and forest and grassland resource analysis is done with the aid of GIS. Urban sprawl is mainly caused by the rapid population growth, increase in the living and property cost in the core of the city, land demand and land speculation and the growth of transport and an increase in income of people and demand of more living space. The study indicates 15726.24 hectares (515.49 per cent) of new land added to the city jurisdiction from its adjacent Gantafeshum Wereda between 1986 and 2018. The population of Adigrat city increased by 9.045 per cent per year, while the city expanded 16.01 per cent per annum and the LCR was 0.0233 hectares per person between 1986 and 2018.Built-up area increased by 35.27 per cent per annum, while agricultural land, forests and grassland cover decreased by 1.68 per cent and 1.26 per cent per annum respectively in the last thirty three years. This rapid growth of urban sprawl brought social-economic and environmental change in the city that has been observed by the city residents. Therefore, the city administration should need strong, integrated, effective and efficient work, with its neighbor rural area and also done timely preparation, implementation, supervision, and evaluation of the structural plan of the city to bring out sustainable development of the city.

Keywords: cause, , trends, urban sprawl, land use land cover, GIS

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1533 Reactive X Proactive Searches on Internet After Leprosy Institutional Campaigns in Brazil: A Google Trends Analysis

Authors: Paulo Roberto Vasconcellos-Silva

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The "Janeiro Roxo" (Purple January) campaign in Brazil aims to promote awareness of leprosy and its early symptoms. The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected institutional campaigns, mostly considering leprosy a neglected disease by the media. Google Trends (GT) is a tool that tracks user searches on Google, providing insights into the popularity of specific search terms. Our prior research has categorized online searches into two types: "Reactive searches," driven by transient campaign-related stimuli, and "Proactive searches," driven by personal interest in early symptoms and self-diagnosis. Using GT we studied: (i) the impact of "Janeiro Roxo" on public interest in leprosy (assessed through reactive searches) and its early symptoms (evaluated through proactive searches) over the past five years; (ii) changes in public interest during and after the COVID-19 pandemic; (iii) patterns in the dynamics of reactive and proactive searches Methods: We used GT's "Relative Search Volume" (RSV) to gauge public interest on a scale from 0 to 100. "HANSENÍASE" (HAN) was a proxy for reactive searches, and "HANSENÍASE SINTOMAS" (leprosy symptoms) (H.SIN) for proactive searches (interest in leprosy or in self-diagnosis). We analyzed 261 weeks of data from 2018 to 2023, using polynomial trend lines to model trends over this period. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to compare weekly RSV, monthly (MM) and annual means (AM). Results: Over a span of 261 weeks, there was consistently higher Relative Search Volume (RSV) for HAN compared to H.SIN. Both search terms exhibited their highest (MM) in January months during all periods. COVID-19 pandemic: a decline was observed during the pandemic years (2020-2021). There was a 24% decrease in RSV for HAN and a 32.5% decrease for H.SIN. Both HAN and H.SIN regained their pre-pandemic search levels in January 2022-2023. Breakpoints indicated abrupt changes - in the 26th week (February 2019), 55th and 213th weeks (September 2019 and 2022) related to September regional campaigns (interrupted in 2020-2021). Trend lines for HAN exhibited an upward curve between 33rd-45th week (April to June 2019), a pandemic-related downward trend between 120th-136th week (December 2020 to March 2021), and an upward trend between 220th-240th week (November 2022 to March 2023). Conclusion: The "Janeiro Roxo" campaign, along with other media-driven activities, exerts a notable influence on both reactive and proactive searches related to leprosy topics. Reactive searches, driven by campaign stimuli, significantly outnumber proactive searches. Despite the interruption of the campaign due to the pandemic, there was a subsequent resurgence in both types of searches. The recovery observed in reactive and proactive searches post-campaign interruption underscores the effectiveness of such initiatives, particularly at the national level. This suggests that regional campaigns aimed at leprosy awareness can be considered highly successful in stimulating proactive public engagement. The evaluation of internet-based campaign programs proves valuable not only for assessing their impact but also for identifying the needs of vulnerable regions. These programs can play a crucial role in integrating regions and highlighting their needs for assistance services in the context of leprosy awareness.

Keywords: health communication, leprosy, health campaigns, information seeking behavior, Google Trends, reactive searches, proactive searches, leprosy early identification

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1532 Impact of Changes in Travel Behavior Triggered by the Covid-19 Pandemic on Tourist Ininfrastructure. Water Reservoirs of the Vltava Cascade (Czechia) Case Study

Authors: Jiří Vágner, Dana Fialová

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The Covid-19 pandemic and its effects have triggered significant changes in travel behavior. On the contrary to a deep decline in international tourism, domestic tourism has recovered. It has not fully replaced the total volume of national tourism so far. However, from a regional point of view, and especially according to the type of destinations, regional targeting has changed significantly compared to the previous period. Urban destinations, which used to be the domain of foreign tourists, have been relatively orphaned, in contrast to destinations tied to natural attractions, which have seen seasonal increases. Even here, at a lower hierarchical geographic level, we can observe the differentiation resulting from the existing localization and infrastructure. The case study is focused on the three largest water reservoirs of the Vltava Cascade in Czechia– Lipno, Orlík, and Slapy. Based on a detailed field survey, in the periods before and during the pandemic, as well as available statistical data (Tourdata; Czech Statistical Office, Czech Cadaster and Ordnance Survey), different trends in the exploitation of these destinations with regard to existing or planned infrastructure are documented, analyzed and explained. This gives us the opportunity to discuss on concrete examples of generally known phenomena that are usually neglected in tourism: slum, brownfield, greenfield. Changes in travel behavior – especially the focus on spending leisure time individually in naturally attractive destinations – can affect the use of sites, which can be defined as a tourist or recreational slum, brownfield, but also as a tourist greenfield development. Sociocultural changes and perception of destinations by tourists and other actors represent, besides environmental changes, major trends in current tourism.

Keywords: Covid-19 pandemic, czechia, sociocultural and environmental impacts, tourist infrastructure, travel behavior, the Vltava Cascade water reservoirs

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1531 Online Bakery Management System Proposal

Authors: Alexander Musyoki, Collins Odour

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Over the past few years, the bakery industry in Kenya has experienced significant growth largely in part to the increased adoption of technology and automation in their processes; more specifically due to the adoption of bakery management systems to help in running bakeries. While they have been largely responsible for the improved productivity and efficiency in bakeries, most of them are now outdated and pose more challenges than benefits. The proposed online bakery management system mentioned in this paper aims to address this by allowing bakery owners to track inventory, budget, job progress, and data analytics on each job and in doing so, promote the Sustainable Development Goals 3 and 12, which aim to ensure healthy lives and promote sustainable economic growth as the proposed benefits of these features include scalability, easy accessibility, reduced acquisition costs, better reliability, and improved functionality that will allow bakeries to become more competitive, reduce waste and track inventory more efficiently. To better understand the challenges, a comprehensive study has been performed to assess these traditional systems and try to understand if an online bakery management system can prove to be advantageous to bakery owners. The study conducted gathered feedback from bakery owners and employees in Nairobi County, Kenya using an online survey with a response rate of about 86% from the target population. The responses cited complex and hard to use bakery management systems (59.7%), lack of portability from one device to the other (58.1%) and high acquisition costs (51.6%) as the top challenges of traditional bakery management systems. On the other hand, some of the top benefits that most of the respondents would realize from the online bakery management system was better reliability (58.1%) and reduced acquisition costs (58.1%). Overall, the findings suggest that an online bakery management system has a lot of advantages over traditional systems and is likely to be well-received in the market. In conclusion, the proposed online bakery management system has the potential to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of small-sized bakeries in Nairobi County. Further research is recommended to expand the sample size and diversity of respondents and to conduct more in-depth analyses of the data collected.

Keywords: ICT, technology and automation, bakery management systems, food innovation

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1530 Smart Automated Furrow Irrigation: A Preliminary Evaluation

Authors: Jasim Uddin, Rod Smith, Malcolm Gillies

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Surface irrigation is the most popular irrigation method all over the world. However, two issues: low efficiency and huge labour involvement concern irrigators due to scarcity in recent years. To address these issues, a smart automated furrow is conceptualised that can be operated using digital devices like smartphone, iPad or computer and a preliminary evaluation was conducted in this study. The smart automated system is the integration of commercially available software and hardware. It includes real-time surface irrigation optimisation software (SISCO) and Rubicon Water’s surface irrigation automation hardware and software. The automated system consists of automatic water delivery system with 300 mm flexible pipes attached to both sides of a remotely controlled valve to operate the irrigation. A water level sensor to obtain the real-time inflow rate from the measured head in the channel, advance sensors to measure the advance time to particular points of an irrigated field, a solar-powered telemetry system including a base station to communicate all the field sensors with the main server. On the basis of field data, the software (SISCO) is optimised the ongoing irrigation and determine the optimum cut-off for particular irrigation and send this information to the control valve to stop the irrigation in a particular (cut-off) time. The preliminary evaluation shows that the automated surface irrigation worked reasonably well without manual intervention. The evaluation of farmers managed irrigation events show the potentials to save a significant amount of water and labour. A substantial amount of economic and social benefits are expected in rural industries by adopting this system. The future outcome of this work would be a fully tested commercial adaptive real-time furrow irrigation system able to compete with the pressurised alternative of centre pivot or lateral move machines on capital cost, water and labour savings but without the massive energy costs.

Keywords: furrow irrigation, smart automation, infiltration, SISCO, real-time irrigation, adoptive control

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1529 Trends, Status, and Future Directions of Artificial Intelligence in Human Resources Disciplines: A Bibliometric Analysis

Authors: Gertrude I. Hewapathirana, Loi A. Nguyen, Mohammed M. Mostafa

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Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and tools are swiftly integrating into many functions of all organizations as a competitive drive to enhance innovations, productivity, efficiency, faster and precise decision making to keep up with rapid changes in the global business arena. Despite increasing research on AI technologies in production, manufacturing, and information management, AI in human resource disciplines is still lagging. Though a few research studies on HR informatics, recruitment, and HRM in general, how to integrate AI in other HR functional disciplines (e.g., compensation, training, mentoring and coaching, employee motivation) is rarely researched. Many inconsistencies of research hinder developing up-to-date knowledge on AI in HR disciplines. Therefore, exploring eight research questions, using bibliometric network analysis combined with a meta-analysis of published research literature. The authors attempt to generate knowledge on the role of AI in improving the efficiency of HR functional disciplines. To advance the knowledge for the benefit of researchers, academics, policymakers, and practitioners, the study highlights the types of AI innovations and outcomes, trends, gaps, themes and topics, fast-moving disciplines, key players, and future directions.AI in HR informatics in high tech firms is the dominant theme in many research publications. While there is increasing attention from researchers and practitioners, there are many gaps between the promise, potential, and real AI applications in HR disciplines. A higher knowledge gap raised many unanswered questions regarding legal, ethical, and morale aspects of AI in HR disciplines as well as the potential contributions of AI in HR disciplines that may guide future research directions. Though the study provides the most current knowledge, it is limited to peer-reviewed empirical, theoretical, and conceptual research publications stored in the WoS database. The implications for theory, practice, and future research are discussed.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, human resources, bibliometric analysis, research directions

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1528 Convergence or Divergence of Economic Growth within the ASEAN Community: Challenges for the AEC

Authors: Philippe Gugler

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This contribution reflects some important questions regarding inter alia the economic development occurring in the light of the ASEAN’s goal of creating the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015. We observe a continuing economic growth of GDP per capita over recent years despite the negative effects of the world economic crisis. IMF forecasts indicate that this trend will continue. The paper focuses on the analysis and comparison of economic growth trends of ASEAN countries.

Keywords: ASEAN, convergence, divergence, economic growth, globalization, integration

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1527 Emerging Social Media Presence of International Organisations - Challenges and Opportunities

Authors: Laura Hervai

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One of the most significant phenomena of the 2000s was the emergence of social media sites and web 2.0 that revolutionized communication processes. Social networking platforms have fundamentally changed social and political participation of the public, which require organisations in the public and non-profit sector not only to adapt to these new trends but also to actively engage their audiences. Opportunity for interaction, freer expression of opinion and the proliferation of user generated content are major changes brought by web 2.0 technologies. Furthermore, due to the wide penetration of mobile technologies, social media sites are capable of connecting underdeveloped regions to the global flow of information. Taking advantage of these characteristics, organisations have the opportunity to engage much wider audiences, exploit new ways to raise awareness or reach out to regions that are difficult to access. The early adopters of these new communication tools soon recognized the need of developing social media guidelines for their organisations as well as the increased workload that they require. While ten years ago communication officers could handle their organisation’s social media presence, today it is a separate profession. International organisations face several challenges related to their social media presence. Early adopters have contributed to the development of best practices among which the ethics of social media usage still remained problematic. Another challenge for international organisations is to adapt to country-specific social media trends while they have to comply with the requirements of their parent organisation as well. However in the 21st century social media presence can be crucial to the successful operation of international organisations, their importance is still not taken seriously enough. The measurement of the effects and influence of social networking on the organisations’ productivity is an unsolved problem thus further research should focus on this matter. Research methods included primary research of major IGOs’ and NGOs’ social media presence and guidelines along with secondary research of social media statistics and scientific articles in the topic.

Keywords: international organisations, non-profit sector, NGO, social media, social network

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1526 Foodborne Outbreak Calendar: Application of Time Series Analysis

Authors: Ryan B. Simpson, Margaret A. Waskow, Aishwarya Venkat, Elena N. Naumova

Abstract:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 31 known foodborne pathogens cause 9.4 million cases of these illnesses annually in US. Over 90% of these illnesses are associated with exposure to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shigella, Shiga-Toxin Producing E.Coli (STEC), Vibrio, and Yersinia. Contaminated products contain parasites typically causing an intestinal illness manifested by diarrhea, stomach cramping, nausea, weight loss, fatigue and may result in deaths in fragile populations. Since 1998, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) has allowed for routine collection of suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of food poisoning. While retrospective analyses have revealed common pathogen-specific seasonal patterns, little is known concerning the stability of those patterns over time and whether they can be used for preventative forecasting. The objective of this study is to construct a calendar of foodborne outbreaks of nine infections based on the peak timing of outbreak incidence in the US from 1996 to 2017. Reported cases were abstracted from FoodNet for Salmonella (135115), Campylobacter (121099), Shigella (48520), Cryptosporidium (21701), STEC (18022), Yersinia (3602), Vibrio (3000), Listeria (2543), and Cyclospora (758). Monthly counts were compiled for each agent, seasonal peak timing and peak intensity were estimated, and the stability of seasonal peaks and synchronization of infections was examined. Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the delta-method were applied to derive confidence intervals for the peak timing for each year and overall study period estimates. Preliminary results indicate that five infections continue to lead as major causes of outbreaks, exhibiting steady upward trends with annual increases in cases ranging from 2.71% (95%CI: [2.38, 3.05]) in Campylobacter, 4.78% (95%CI: [4.14, 5.41]) in Salmonella, 7.09% (95%CI: [6.38, 7.82]) in E.Coli, 7.71% (95%CI: [6.94, 8.49]) in Cryptosporidium, and 8.67% (95%CI: [7.55, 9.80]) in Vibrio. Strong synchronization of summer outbreaks were observed, caused by Campylobacter, Vibrio, E.Coli and Salmonella, peaking at 7.57 ± 0.33, 7.84 ± 0.47, 7.85 ± 0.37, and 7.82 ± 0.14 calendar months, respectively, with the serial cross-correlation ranging 0.81-0.88 (p < 0.001). Over 21 years, Listeria and Cryptosporidium peaks (8.43 ± 0.77 and 8.52 ± 0.45 months, respectively) have a tendency to arrive 1-2 weeks earlier, while Vibrio peaks (7.8 ± 0.47) delay by 2-3 weeks. These findings will be incorporated in the forecast models to predict common paths of the spread, long-term trends, and the synchronization of outbreaks across etiological agents. The predictive modeling of foodborne outbreaks should consider long-term changes in seasonal timing, spatiotemporal trends, and sources of contamination.

Keywords: foodborne outbreak, national outbreak reporting system, predictive modeling, seasonality

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1525 Using Geographic Information Systems Techniques and Multi-Source Earth Observation Data to Study the Trends of Urban Expansion in Welayat Barka Sultanate of Oman during the Period from 2002 to 2019

Authors: Eyad H. R. Fadda, Jawaher K. Al Rashdieah, Aysha H. Al Rashdieh

Abstract:

Urban Sprawl is a phenomenon that many regions in the Sultanate of Oman suffer from in general and in Welayat Barka in particular. It is considered a human phenomenon that causes many negative effects as it has increased in the last time clearly, and this study aims to diagnose the current status of urban growth taking place in Walayat Barka. The objective of this study is to monitor and follow up on the most prominent changes and developments taking place in Barka in the period from 2002 to 2019 and provide suggestions to the decision-makers to reduce the negative effects of the phenomenon. The study methodology depends on the descriptive and analytical approach to describe the phenomenon and its analysis and knowledge of the factors that helped in urban expansion in the Barka, using a number of studies and interviews with the specialists, both in governmental and private institutions, as well as with individuals who own land, real estate, and others. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (ERDAS software) have been used to analyze the satellite images that helped in obtaining results that reflect the changes Barka, in addition to knowing the natural and human determinants that stand on Urban Sprawl Expansion. The study concluded that the geographical location of Barka has a significant role in its urban expansion, as it is the closest state to the capital Muscat, as this expansion continues toward the southern and south-western directions, as this expansion has significant negative effects represented in the low number of agricultural lands due to the continuous change in land use. In addition, it was found that there are two types of natural determinants of urban expansion in Barka, which are consumed land from the Sea of Oman and from the western sands.

Keywords: GIS applications, remote sensing, urbanization, urban sprawl expansion trends

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1524 Comprehensive Assessment of Energy Efficiency within the Production Process

Authors: S. Kreitlein, N. Eder, J. Franke

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The importance of energy efficiency within the production process increases steadily. Unfortunately, so far no tools for a comprehensive assessment of energy efficiency within the production process exist. Therefore the Institute for Factory Automation and Production Systems of the Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg has developed two methods with the goal of achieving transparency and a quantitative assessment of energy efficiency: EEV (Energy Efficiency Value) and EPE (Energetic Process Efficiency). This paper describes the basics and state of the art as well as the developed approaches.

Keywords: energy efficiency, energy efficiency value, energetic process efficiency, production

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1523 Rapid, Automated Characterization of Microplastics Using Laser Direct Infrared Imaging and Spectroscopy

Authors: Andreas Kerstan, Darren Robey, Wesam Alvan, David Troiani

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Over the last 3.5 years, Quantum Cascade Lasers (QCL) technology has become increasingly important in infrared (IR) microscopy. The advantages over fourier transform infrared (FTIR) are that large areas of a few square centimeters can be measured in minutes and that the light intensive QCL makes it possible to obtain spectra with excellent S/N, even with just one scan. A firmly established solution of the laser direct infrared imaging (LDIR) 8700 is the analysis of microplastics. The presence of microplastics in the environment, drinking water, and food chains is gaining significant public interest. To study their presence, rapid and reliable characterization of microplastic particles is essential. Significant technical hurdles in microplastic analysis stem from the sheer number of particles to be analyzed in each sample. Total particle counts of several thousand are common in environmental samples, while well-treated bottled drinking water may contain relatively few. While visual microscopy has been used extensively, it is prone to operator error and bias and is limited to particles larger than 300 µm. As a result, vibrational spectroscopic techniques such as Raman and FTIR microscopy have become more popular, however, they are time-consuming. There is a demand for rapid and highly automated techniques to measure particle count size and provide high-quality polymer identification. Analysis directly on the filter that often forms the last stage in sample preparation is highly desirable as, by removing a sample preparation step it can both improve laboratory efficiency and decrease opportunities for error. Recent advances in infrared micro-spectroscopy combining a QCL with scanning optics have created a new paradigm, LDIR. It offers improved speed of analysis as well as high levels of automation. Its mode of operation, however, requires an IR reflective background, and this has, to date, limited the ability to perform direct “on-filter” analysis. This study explores the potential to combine the filter with an infrared reflective surface filter. By combining an IR reflective material or coating on a filter membrane with advanced image analysis and detection algorithms, it is demonstrated that such filters can indeed be used in this way. Vibrational spectroscopic techniques play a vital role in the investigation and understanding of microplastics in the environment and food chain. While vibrational spectroscopy is widely deployed, improvements and novel innovations in these techniques that can increase the speed of analysis and ease of use can provide pathways to higher testing rates and, hence, improved understanding of the impacts of microplastics in the environment. Due to its capability to measure large areas in minutes, its speed, degree of automation and excellent S/N, the LDIR could also implemented for various other samples like food adulteration, coatings, laminates, fabrics, textiles and tissues. This presentation will highlight a few of them and focus on the benefits of the LDIR vs classical techniques.

Keywords: QCL, automation, microplastics, tissues, infrared, speed

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1522 Fully Autonomous Vertical Farm to Increase Crop Production

Authors: Simone Cinquemani, Lorenzo Mantovani, Aleksander Dabek

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New technologies in agriculture are opening new challenges and new opportunities. Among these, certainly, robotics, vision, and artificial intelligence are the ones that will make a significant leap, compared to traditional agricultural techniques, possible. In particular, the indoor farming sector will be the one that will benefit the most from these solutions. Vertical farming is a new field of research where mechanical engineering can bring knowledge and know-how to transform a highly labor-based business into a fully autonomous system. The aim of the research is to develop a multi-purpose, modular, and perfectly integrated platform for crop production in indoor vertical farming. Activities will be based both on hardware development such as automatic tools to perform different activities on soil and plants, as well as research to introduce an extensive use of monitoring techniques based on machine learning algorithms. This paper presents the preliminary results of a research project of a vertical farm living lab designed to (i) develop and test vertical farming cultivation practices, (ii) introduce a very high degree of mechanization and automation that makes all processes replicable, fully measurable, standardized and automated, (iii) develop a coordinated control and management environment for autonomous multiplatform or tele-operated robots in environments with the aim of carrying out complex tasks in the presence of environmental and cultivation constraints, (iv) integrate AI-based algorithms as decision support system to improve quality production. The coordinated management of multiplatform systems still presents innumerable challenges that require a strongly multidisciplinary approach right from the design, development, and implementation phases. The methodology is based on (i) the development of models capable of describing the dynamics of the various platforms and their interactions, (ii) the integrated design of mechatronic systems able to respond to the needs of the context and to exploit the strength characteristics highlighted by the models, (iii) implementation and experimental tests performed to test the real effectiveness of the systems created, evaluate any weaknesses so as to proceed with a targeted development. To these aims, a fully automated laboratory for growing plants in vertical farming has been developed and tested. The living lab makes extensive use of sensors to determine the overall state of the structure, crops, and systems used. The possibility of having specific measurements for each element involved in the cultivation process makes it possible to evaluate the effects of each variable of interest and allows for the creation of a robust model of the system as a whole. The automation of the laboratory is completed with the use of robots to carry out all the necessary operations, from sowing to handling to harvesting. These systems work synergistically thanks to the knowledge of detailed models developed based on the information collected, which allows for deepening the knowledge of these types of crops and guarantees the possibility of tracing every action performed on each single plant. To this end, artificial intelligence algorithms have been developed to allow synergistic operation of all systems.

Keywords: automation, vertical farming, robot, artificial intelligence, vision, control

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1521 Assessing Adoption Trends of Mukau (Melia volkensii (Gürke)) Enterprises in Eastern and Coastal Regions of Kenya

Authors: Lydia Murugi Mugendi

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The promotion of tree growing as a lucrative enterprise is the focus of this paper as management practices have shifted focus from protection of natural forest resources to community/government partnerships with the aim of resource conservation, management and increase of on-farm tree growing. Using KEFRI as (the source) of information pertaining Melia volkensii (the medium or message) being transferred, this paper investigates the current perception towards forestry and the behavioural attitudes of recipients of forest intervention activities. The two objectives explored in this paper are to find out the level of adoption of Mukau in Kitui, Kibwezi and Samburu/Taru and secondly, to find out the characteristics of the adoption process between Kitui, Kibwezi and Samburu/Taru. The methodologies used during data collection were participatory rural appraisal tools in conjunction with the social survey questionnaires. Simple random sampling and snowball sampling were used to identify respondents within the three target sites and analysis was done using SPSS. Results of the study of indicating that adoption rates of the Mukau in Samburu/Taru, where forestry-related activities were introduced within the past one decade had significantly increase despite initial resistance. The other areas, which had benefited from numerous decades of intense forestry extension projects and activities, indicated a decline in re-adoption rates of Mukau as an enterprise. This study has brought out the reality of adoption trends and state of Mukau population within the three counties while providing a glimpse towards the communities’ perception in regards to adoption of forestry and other environmental innovations. The outcome of the study is to provide a guideline for extension/ dissemination officers in KEFRI and related stakeholders to promote seamless cohesive interaction between the recipient communities of the proposed interventions.

Keywords: adoption, innovation, enterprise, extension, DOI Theory

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1520 Smart Container Farming: Innovative Urban Strawberry Farming Model from Japan to the World

Authors: Nishantha Giguruwa

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This research investigates the transformative potential of smart container farming, building upon the successful cultivation of Japanese mushrooms at Sakai Farms in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, under the strategic collaboration with the Daikei Group. Inspired by this success, the study focuses on establishing an advanced urban strawberry farming laboratory with the aim of understanding strawberry farming technologies, fostering collaboration, and strategizing marketing approaches for both local and global markets. Positioned within the business framework of Sakai Farms and the Daikei Group, the study underscores the sustainability and forward-looking solutions offered by smart container farming in agriculture. The global significance of strawberries is emphasized, acknowledging their economic and cultural importance. The detailed examination of strawberry farming intricacies informs the technological framework developed for smart containers, implemented at Sakai Farms. Integral to this research is the incorporation of controlled bee pollination, a groundbreaking addition to the smart container farming model. The study anticipates future trends, outlining avenues for continuing exploration, stakeholder collaborations, policy considerations, and expansion strategies. Notably, the author expresses a strategic intent to approach the global market, leveraging the foreign student/faculty base at Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, where the author is affiliated. This unique approach aims to disseminate the research findings globally, contributing to the broader landscape of agricultural innovation. The integration of controlled bee pollination within this innovative framework not only enhances sustainability but also marks a significant stride in the evolution of urban agriculture, aligning with global agricultural trends.

Keywords: smart container farming, urban agriculture, strawberry farming technologies, controlled bee pollination, agricultural innovation

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1519 Imported Oil Logistics to Central and Southern Europe Refineries

Authors: Vladimir Klepikov

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Countries of Central and Southern Europe have a typical feature: oil consumption in the region exceeds own commodity production capacity by far. So crude oil import prevails in the region’s crude oil consumption structure. Transportation using marine and pipeline transport is a common method of the imported oil delivery in the region. For certain refineries, in addition to possible transportation by oil pipelines from seaports, oil is delivered from Russian oil fields. With the view to these specific features and geographic location of the region’s refineries, three ways of imported oil delivery can be singled out: oil delivery by tankers to the port and subsequent transportation by pipeline transport of the port and the refinery; oil delivery by tanker fleet to the port and subsequent transportation by oil trunk pipeline transport; oil delivery from the fields by oil trunk pipelines to refineries. Oil is also delivered by road, internal water, and rail transport. However, the volumes transported this way are negligible in comparison to the three above transportation means. Multimodal oil transportation to refineries using the pipeline and marine transport is one of the biggest cargo flows worldwide. However, in scientific publications this problem is considered mainly for certain modes of transport. Therefore, this study is topical. To elaborate an efficient transportation policy of crude oil supply to Central and Southern Europe, in this paper the geographic concentration of oil refineries was determined and the capacities of the region’s refineries were assessed. The quantitative analysis method is used as a tool. The port infrastructure and the oil trunk pipeline system capacity were assessed in terms of delivery of raw materials to the refineries. The main groups of oil consuming countries were determined. The trends of crude oil production in the region were reviewed. The changes in production capacities and volumes at refineries in the last decade were shown. Based on the revealed refining trends, the scope of possible crude oil supplies to the refineries of the region under review was forecast. The existing transport infrastructure is able to handle the increased oil flow.

Keywords: European region, infrastructure, oil terminal capacity, pipeline capacity, refinery capacity, tanker draft

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1518 Valorization of Waste and By-products for Protein Extraction and Functional Properties

Authors: Lorena Coelho, David Ramada, Catarina Nobre, Joaquim Gaião, Juliana Duarte

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The development of processes that allows the valorization of waste and by-products generated by industries is crucial to promote symbiotic relationships between different sectors and is mandatory to “close the loop” in the circular economy paradigm. In recent years, by-products and waste from agro-food and forestry sector have attracted attention due to their potential application and technical characteristics. The extraction of bio-based active compounds to be reused is in line with the circular bioeconomy concept trends, combining the use of renewable resources with the process’s circularity, aiming the waste reduction and encouraging reuse and recycling. Among different types of bio-based materials, which are being explored and can be extracted, proteins fractions are becoming an attractive new raw material. Within this context, BioTrace4Leather project, a collaboration between two Technological Centres – CeNTI and CTIC, and a company of Tanning and Finishing of Leather – Curtumes Aveneda, aims to develop innovative and biologically sustainable solutions for leather industry and accomplish the market circularity trends. Specifically, it aims to the valorisation of waste and by-products from the tannery industry through proteins extraction and the development of an innovative and biologically sustainable materials. The achieved results show that keratin, gelatine, and collagen fractions can be successfully extracted from hair and leather bovine waste. These products could be reintegrated into the industrial manufacturing process to attain innovative and functional textile and leather substrates. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This work has been developed under BioTrace4Leather scope, a project co-funded by Operational Program for Competitiveness and Internationalization (COMPETE) of PORTUGAL2020, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), under grant agreement Nº POCI-01-0247-FEDER-039867.

Keywords: leather by-products, circular economy, sustainability, protein fractions

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1517 Trends of Municipal Council Members in Practicing His Role on Municipality's Main Municipal Activities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Authors: Ameer Alalwan

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Summary: The aim of this research is to identify trends of municipal council member in practicing his administrative control, decision-making, and counsultive role on municipalities' main municipal activities in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This research is conducted after the implementation of the new municipal system resolution no. (M\61) in 1435 in the work of municipal councils for the third session. To achieve the goal of this research, a questionnaire has been designed to obtain the opinion of municipal councils on this matter. This questionnaire has been tested for reliability and validity. The results of this research show that in general performance of municipal council is moderate after the implementation of the new municipal system resolution no. (M\61) in 1435 in the work of municipal councils for the third session. Also, extend that municipal council member practice his roles on the main municipality activities is moderate and weak. In addition, results show that municipal council member practice big role in decision-making, and moderate role in administrative control, and weaker role in giving opinion on municipality main issues. Furthermore, the results show that there is a significant difference between municipal council member's responses by the change of their Personal characteristics. Educated and appointed municipal council members practicing their role more than others do. In addition, municipal council presidents, and vice presidents, and in regional and sub-regional municipalities practice their role more than others do. Finally, this research in general recommened that muincialty council member must be empowered, so that he can practice his role on muicipality main activities. In addition, research suggest, granting municipal council member the authority, resources needed, training and appointment of qualified members, so that they will be able to practice their roles. Furthermore, this research suggest for the time being maintain certain percent of municipal council's appointed until this experience mature in the kingdom.

Keywords: municipal council, municipal council member, municipality, decision-making role

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1516 A Comparative Study of the Impact of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) on Trends in the Second Demographic Transition in Rwanda

Authors: Etienne Gatera

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Many studies have been conducted on SDT. Most of them focus on developed countries because of influencing factors such as; education, health, labor force, female labor force participation, industrialization, urbanization and migration. However, this thesis project paper aims to assess the impact of the total fertility rate (TFR) on the trends of the SDR in Rwanda. We will mainly be based in Rwanda after the 1994 genocide. Rwanda is located in East Africa, with approximately 13 million inhabitants. Thus, after the 1994 Tutsi genocide. The population growth rate exploded out of control with 6.17 children per woman in 1995. However, it's declined to 4.2 in 2014-2015 and declining to 4.1% in 2019-2020. Respectively with 3.4 children per woman in urban areas and 4.3 in rural areas. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda. Rwanda's population is expected to continue to grow for the rest of the century and reach 33.35 million people in 2099, with 2.1 children per woman in 2050. However, this project document aims to demonstrate the impact of the TFR on SDT trends in Rwanda. Thus, the decline in the TFR in Rwanda began with the introduction of family planning practices, which now account for 47.5% in 2019. Childbearing with three children for rural women compared to two children in the city, the increase in Divorce and separation caused by the behavior called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "coming at night" similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The decline in remarriage is caused by single mothers behavior who prefer to raise their children rather than remarry. Therefore, the study used probability sampling with (Stratified random sampling) method with a survey questionnaire of 1067 respondents in the 5 Districts (3 in rural areas and two in urban areas), with the target group of women Age between 15-49. The study demonstrated that the age of marriage in rural areas is two years higher than in urban areas. Divorce is more common in urban is with 6.2% with 5.2% in rural areas. However, separation is more common in rural areas than in urban areas, with a lower rate of 3%, due to the higher system called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "come at night", similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The study revealed that more than 85% of divorced people prefer to remain single, which confirms the low remarriage rate. Childbearing has started to decrease, especially for young singles in urban areas, due to the economic situation, with national statistics showing that unemployment in the youth community is still 16% higher. Therefore, the study concluded by confirming the hypothesis based on the results of the TFR indicators such as marriage, remarriage, divorce, separation, divorce, Kuza n'ijoro, childbearing] and abortion. The study consists of four sections, an introduction and background, a review of the literature, a description of the data and methodology, an analysis of the data, discussion results and a conclusion.

Keywords: Kuza n'ijoro, Rwanda, second demographic transition (SDT), total fertility rate (TFR)

Procedia PDF Downloads 153