Search results for: trends and variability of rainfall

Authors: Ji-Yuan Lin, Yu-Ming Liou, Yi-Ting Chen, Chen-Syuan Lin

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Soil water index obtained by tank model is now commonly used in soil and sand disaster alarm system in Japan. Comparing with the rainfall trigging index in Taiwan, the tank model is easy to predict the slope water content on large-scale landslide. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the threshold value of large-scale landslide using the soil water index Sixteen typhoons and heavy rainfall events, were selected to establish the, to relationship between landslide event and soil water index. Finally, the proposed threshold values for landslides on country road No.89 are suggested in this study. The study results show that 95% landslide cases occurred in soil water index more than 125mm, and 30% of the more serious slope failure occurred in the soil water index is greater than 250mm. Beside, this study speculates when soil water index more than 250mm and the difference value between second tank and third tank less than -25mm, it leads to large-scale landslide more probably.

Keywords: soil water index, tank model, landslide, threshold values

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Authors: Derya Karagöz

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A Shewhart chart based on normality assumption is not appropriate for skewed distributions since its Type-I error rate is inflated. This study presents X̄ and S control charts for monitoring the process variability for skewed distributions. We propose Weighted Standard Deviation (WSD) X̄ and S control charts. Standard deviation estimator is applied to monitor the process variability for estimating the process standard deviation, in the case of the W SD X̄ and S control charts as this estimator is simple and easy to compute. Unlike the Shewhart control chart, the proposed charts provide asymmetric limits in accordance with the direction and degree of skewness to construct the upper and lower limits. The performances of the proposed charts are compared with other heuristic charts for skewed distributions by using Simulation study. The Simulation studies show that the proposed control charts have good properties for skewed distributions and large sample sizes.

Keywords: weighted standard deviation, MAD, skewed distributions, S control charts

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Authors: Cheong Hyeon Oh, Dongho Nam, Byungsik Kim

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Due to the recent climate change, flood damage caused by local floods and typhoons has frequently occurred, the incidence rate and intensity of wildfires are greatly increased due to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Wildfires cause primary damage, such as loss of forest resources, as well as secondary disasters, such as landslides, floods, and debris flow. In many countries around the world, damage and economic losses from secondary damage are occurring as well as the direct effects of forest fires. Therefore, in this study, the Rainfall-Runoff model(S-RAT) was used for the wildfire affected areas in Gangneung and Goseong, which occurred on April 2019, when the stability of vegetation and soil were destroyed by wildfires. Rainfall data from Typhoon Rusa were used in the S-RAT model, and flood discharge was calculated according to changes in land cover before and after wildfire damage. The results of the calculation showed that flood discharge increased significantly due to changes in land cover, as the increase in flood discharge increases the possibility of the occurrence of the debris flow and the extent of the damage, the debris flow height and range were calculated before and after forest fire using RAMMS. The analysis results showed that the height and extent of damage increased after wildfire, but the result value was underestimated due to the characteristics that using DEM and maximum flood discharge of the RAMMS model. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS). This paper work (or document) was financially supported by Ministry of the Interior and Safety as 'Human resoure development Project in Disaster management'.

Keywords: wildfire, debris flow, land cover, rainfall-runoff meodel S-RAT, RAMMS, height

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Authors: Abolghasem Akbari

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The Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS-CN) method is widely used for predicting direct runoff from rainfall. It employs the hydrologic soil groups and land use information along with period soil moisture conditions to derive NRCS-CN. This method has been well documented and available in popular rainfall-runoff models such as HEC-HMS, SWAT, SWMM and much more. Despite all benefits and advantages of this well documented and easy-to-use method, it does not take into account the effect of terrain slope and drainage area. This study aimed to first investigate the effect of slope on CN and then slope-adjusted runoff potential map is generated for Kuantan River Basin, Malaysia. The Hanng method was used to adjust CN values provided in National Handbook of Engineering and The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) version 2 is used to derive slope map with the spatial resolution of 30 m for Kuantan River Basin (KRB). The study significantly enhanced the application of GIS tools and recent advances in earth observation technology to analyze the hydrological process.

Keywords: Kuantan, ASTER-GDEM, SCS-CN, runoff

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Authors: P. M. Kundu, L. R. Singo, J. O. Odiyo

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Luvuvhu River catchment in South Africa experiences floods resulting from heavy rainfall of intensities exceeding 15 mm per hour associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The generation of runoff is triggered by the rainfall intensity and soil moisture status. In this study, remote sensing and GIS techniques were used to analyze the hydrologic response to land cover changes. Runoff was calculated as a product of the net precipitation and a curve number coefficient. It was then routed using the Muskingum-Cunge method using a diffusive wave transfer model that enabled the calculation of response functions between start and end point. Flood frequency analysis was determined using theoretical probability distributions. Spatial data on land cover was obtained from multi-temporal Landsat images while data on rainfall, soil type, runoff and stream discharges was obtained by direct measurements in the field and from the Department of Water. A digital elevation model was generated from contour maps available at http://www.ngi.gov.za. The results showed that land cover changes had impacted negatively to the hydrology of the catchment. Peak discharges in the whole catchment were noted to have increased by at least 17% over the period while flood volumes were noted to have increased by at least 11% over the same period. The flood time to peak indicated a decreasing trend, in the range of 0.5 to 1 hour within the years. The synergism between remotely sensed digital data and GIS for land surface analysis and modeling was realized, and it was therefore concluded that hydrologic modeling has potential for determining the influence of changes in land cover on the hydrologic response of the catchment.

Keywords: catchment, digital elevation model, hydrological model, routing, runoff

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Bhogendra Mishra, Andy Nelson, Mirco Boschetti, Lorenzo Busetto, Alice Laborte

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Rice is grown on over 100 million hectares in almost every country of Asia. It is the most important staple crop for food security and has high economic and cultural importance in Asian societies. The combination of genetic diversity and management options, coupled with the large geographic extent means that there is a large variation in seasonality (when it is grown) and cropping intensity (how often it is grown per year on the same plot of land), even over relatively small distances. Seasonality and intensity can and do change over time depending on climatic, environmental and economic factors. Detecting where and when these changes happen can provide information to better understand trends in regional and even global rice production. Remote sensing offers a unique opportunity to estimate these trends. We apply the recently published PhenoRice algorithm to 14 years of moderate resolution remote sensing (MODIS) data (utilizing 250m resolution 16 day composites from Terra and Aqua) to estimate seasonality and cropping intensity per year and changes over time. We compare the results to the surveyed data collected by International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). The study results in a unique and validated dataset on the extent and change of extent, the seasonality and change in seasonality and the cropping intensity and change in cropping intensity between 2003 and 2016 for the Philippines. Observed trends and their implications for food security and trade policies are also discussed.

Keywords: rice, cropping intensity, moderate resolution remote sensing (MODIS), phenology, seasonality

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Authors: Siti Indati Mustapa, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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Global CO2 emission and increasing fuel consumption to meet energy demand requirement has become a threat in recent decades. Effort to reduce the CO2 emission is now a matter of priority in most countries of the world including Malaysia. Transportation has been identified as the most intensive sector of carbon-based fuels and achievement of the voluntary target to meet 40% carbon intensity reduction set at the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) means that the emission from the transport sector must be reduced accordingly. This posed a great challenge to Malaysia and effort has to be made to embrace suitable and appropriate energy policy for sustainable energy and emission reduction of this sector. The focus of this paper is to analyse the trends of Malaysia’s energy consumption and emission of four different transport sub-sectors (road, rail, aviation and maritime). Underlying factors influencing the growth of energy consumption and emission trends are discussed. Besides, technology status towards energy efficiency in transportation sub-sectors is presented. By reviewing the existing policies and trends of energy used, the paper highlights prospective policy options towards achieving emission reduction in the transportation sector.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, transportation sector, fuel consumption, energy policy, Malaysia

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Authors: Yasmeen Saleem, Pedro Berliner, Nurit Agam

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The most severe limitation for plant production in arid areas is water. Rainfall events are rare but can have pulses of high intensity. As a result, crusts are formed, which decreases infiltration into the soil, and results additionally in erosive losses of soil. Direct evaporation of water from the wetted soil can account for large fractions of the water stored in the soil. Different kinds of mulches have been used to decrease the loss of water in arid and semi-arid region. This study aims to evaluate the effect of polystyrene styrofoam pellets mulch on soil infiltration, runoff, and evaporation as a more efficient and economically viable mulch alternative. Polystyrene styrofoam pellets of two sizes (0.5 and 1 cm diameter) will be placed on top of the soil in two mulch layer depths (1 and 2 cm), in addition to the non-mulched treatment. The rainfall simulator will be used as an artificial source of rain. The preliminary results in the prototype experiment indicate that polystyrene styrofoam pellets decreased runoff, increased soil-water infiltration. We are still testing the effect of these pellets on decreasing the soil-water evaporation.

Keywords: synthetic mulch, runoff, evaporation, infiltration

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Authors: Sandeep J. Kumar

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Urbanisation is considered as the primary driver of land use and land cover change that has direct link to population and economic growth. In India, as well as in other developing countries, cities are urbanizing at an alarming rate. This unprecedented and uncontrolled urbanisation can result in urban sprawl. Due to a number of factors, urban sprawl is recognised to be a result of poor planning, inadequate policies, and poor governance. Urban sprawl may be seen as posing a threat to the development of sustainable cities. Hence, it is very essential to manage this. Planning for predicted future growth is critical to avoid the negative effects of urban growth at the local and regional levels. Thiruvananthapuram being the capital city of Kerala is a city of economic success, challenges, and opportunities. Urbanization trends in the city have paved way for Urban Sprawl. This thesis aims to formulate a framework to combat the emerging urban sprawl in the city of Thiruvananthapuram. For that, the first step was to quantify trends of urban growth in Thiruvananthapuram city using Geographical Information System(GIS) and remote sensing techniques. The technique and results obtained in the study are extremely valuable in analysing the land use changes. Secondly, these change in the trends were analysed through some of the critical factors that helped the study to understand the underlying issues of the existing city structure that has resulted in urban sprawl. Anticipating development trends can modify the current order. This can be productively resolved using regional and municipal planning and management strategies. Hence efficient strategies to curb the sprawl in Thiruvananthapuram city have been formulated in this study that can be considered as recommendations for future planning.

Keywords: urbanisation, urban sprawl, geographical information system(GIS), thiruvananthapuram

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Authors: Mounia El Hafyani, Khalid El Himdi

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Precipitation is one of the key variables in water resource planning. The importance of modeling wet and dry durations is a crucial pointer in engineering hydrology. The objective of this study is to model and analyze the distribution of wet and dry durations. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data from 1967 to 2017 of the Moroccan city of Kenitra’s station are used. Three models are implemented for the distribution of wet and dry durations, namely the first-order Markov chain, the second-order Markov chain, and the truncated negative binomial law. The adherence of the data to the proposed models is evaluated using Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The Akaike information criterion is applied to assess the most effective model distribution. We go further and study the law of the number of wet and dry days among k consecutive days. The calculation of this law is done through an algorithm that we have implemented based on conditional laws. We complete our work by comparing the observed moments of the numbers of wet/dry days among k consecutive days to the calculated moment of the three estimated models. The study shows the effectiveness of our approach in modeling wet and dry durations of daily precipitation.

Keywords: Markov chain, rainfall, truncated negative binomial law, wet and dry durations

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Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

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The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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Authors: Kwaku Damoah

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The agricultural sector is characterized by continuous transformation, driven by factors such as demographic shifts, evolving consumer preferences, climate change, and migration trends. This dynamic environment presents complex challenges for key stakeholders including farmers, governments, and investors, who must navigate these changes to achieve optimal investment returns. To effectively predict market trends and uncover promising investment opportunities, a systematic, data-driven approach is essential. This paper introduces the Structural Evolution Index (SEI), a machine learning-based methodology. SEI is specifically designed to analyse long-term trends and forecast the potential of emerging agricultural products for investment. Versatile in application, it evaluates various agricultural metrics such as production, yield, trade, land use, and consumption, providing a comprehensive view of the evolution within agricultural markets. By harnessing data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAOSTAT), this study demonstrates the SEI's capabilities through Comparative Exploratory Analysis and evaluation of international trade in agricultural products, focusing on Malaysia and Singapore. The SEI methodology reveals intricate patterns and transitions within the agricultural sector, enabling stakeholders to strategically identify and capitalize on emerging markets. This predictive framework is a powerful tool for decision-makers, offering crucial insights that help anticipate market shifts and align investments with anticipated returns.

Keywords: agricultural investment, algorithm, comparative exploratory analytics, machine learning, market trends, predictive analytics, structural evolution index

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Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar

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An accuracy nonlinear analysis of a deep beam resting on elastic perfectly plastic soil is carried out in this study. In fact, a nonlinear finite element modeling for large deflection and moderate rotation of Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on linear and nonlinear random soil is investigated. The geometric nonlinear analysis of the beam is based on the theory of von Kàrmàn, where the Newton-Raphson incremental iteration method is implemented in a Matlab code to solve the nonlinear equation of the soil-beam interaction system. However, two analyses (deterministic and probabilistic) are proposed to verify the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed model where the theory of the local average based on the Monte Carlo approach is used to analyze the effect of the spatial variability of the soil properties on the nonlinear beam response. The effect of six main parameters are investigated: the external load, the length of a beam, the coefficient of subgrade reaction of the soil, the Young’s modulus of the beam, the coefficient of variation and the correlation length of the soil’s coefficient of subgrade reaction. A comparison between the beam resting on linear and nonlinear soil models is presented for different beam’s length and external load. Numerical results have been obtained for the combination of the geometric nonlinearity of beam and material nonlinearity of random soil. This comparison highlighted the need of including the material nonlinearity and spatial variability of the soil in the geometric nonlinear analysis, when the beam undergoes large deflections.

Keywords: finite element method, geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, soil-structure interaction, spatial variability

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Authors: Sara Zadehomidi

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Iran, a geographically arid and semi-arid country, experiences varying levels of rainfall across its territory. Five major and important rivers, namely Karun, Dez, Karkheh, Jarrahi, and Hendijan, are valuable assets of the Khuzestan province. To address various needs, including those of farmers (especially during hot seasons with no rainfall), drinking water requirements, industrial and environmental, and most importantly, electricity production, dams have been constructed on several of these rivers, with some dams still under construction. The outflow of water from dam reservoirs must be managed in a way that not only preserves the reservoir's potential effectively but also ensures the maximum revenue from electricity generation. Furthermore, it should meet the other mentioned requirements. In this study, scientific methods such as optimization using Lingo software were employed to achieve these objectives. The results, when executed and adhering to the proposed electricity production program with Lingo software, indicate a 35.7% increase in electricity sales revenue over a one-year examination period. Considering that several electricity plants are currently under construction, the importance and necessity of utilizing computer systems for expediting and optimizing the electricity generation program planning from electricity plants will become evident in the future.

Keywords: Ahvaz, electricity generation programs, Iran, optimizing

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Authors: Alcino Panguana

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All Portuguese-speaking African countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region that has high infant mortality rates, being responsible for 49.6% of deaths in Portuguese-speaking African countries, Angola has levels of infant mortality among children, where 2017, 156 children who died before reaching 1 year of life in 1000 live births. Although there is an increase in studies that document trends and specific causes of infant mortality in each country, historical-comparative studies of infant mortality among these countries remain rare. Understanding the trend of this indicator is important for policymakers and planners in order to improve access to successful child survival operations. Lusophone Africa continues with high infant mortality rates in the order of 64 deaths per thousand births. Assuming heterogeneities that can characterize these countries, raise an analysis investigated indicator at the country level to understand the pattern and historical trend of infant mortality within Lusophone Africa from the year 2021. The result is to understand the levels and evolution of infant mortality in Portuguese-speaking African countries.

Keywords: child mortality, levels, trends, lusophone African countries

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Authors: Adamu Garba, Saidu Idi

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This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of Dermatophilosis in cattle in Bauchi State and suggest possible control measures. Data were obtained from the State Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Veterinary Division and monthly reports from Local Government Area Veterinary Offices for a period of three years ranging from 1996-1998. The result revealed that the disease is more prevalent in the rainy season which coincides with preponderance of the predisposing factors. Of the total 17,252 infected cattle in the State, Western zone had the highest cases with 8,298 (50.0%), followed by Central zone with 5,211 (30.0%) and the least was in the Northern zone with 3,753 (20.0%) cases. Rainfall pattern within the zones could be responsible for the variation in the prevalence rate. Analysis of variance revealed that there is no significant difference in the prevalence of Dermatophilosis between the years (P<0.212) while there is significant difference within the zones (P<0.012). Correlation analysis carried out showed that there is positive relationship between rainfall and Dermatophilosis (r<0.909). Since the disease is more prevalent during the rainy season, efforts should be exerted on thorough preventive measures during the period to control the disease in the State, particularly in the Western zone.

Keywords: incidence, dermatophilosis, cattle, Bauchi State

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Authors: Mohammad Moezzibadi, Isabelle Charpentier, Adrien Wanko, Robert Mosé

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The calibration of hydrodynamic parameters for subsurface constructed wetlands (CWs) is a sensitive process since highly non-linear equations are involved in unsaturated flow modeling. CW systems are engineered systems designed to favour natural treatment processes involving wetland vegetation, soil, and their microbial flora. Their significant efficiency at reducing the ecological impact of urban runoff has been recently proved in the field. Numerical flow modeling in a vertical variably saturated CW is here carried out by implementing the Richards model by means of a mixed hybrid finite element method (MHFEM), particularly well adapted to the simulation of heterogeneous media, and the van Genuchten-Mualem parametrization. For validation purposes, MHFEM results were compared to those of HYDRUS (a software based on a finite element discretization). As van Genuchten-Mualem soil hydrodynamic parameters depend on water content, their estimation is subject to considerable experimental and numerical studies. In particular, the sensitivity analysis performed with respect to the van Genuchten-Mualem parameters reveals a predominant influence of the shape parameters α, n and the saturated conductivity of the filter on the piezometric heads, during saturation and desaturation. Modeling issues arise when the soil reaches oven-dry conditions. A particular attention should also be brought to boundary condition modeling (surface ponding or evaporation) to be able to tackle different sequences of rainfall-runoff events. For proper parameter identification, large field datasets would be needed. As these are usually not available, notably due to the randomness of the storm events, we thus propose a simple, robust and low-cost numerical method for the inverse modeling of the soil hydrodynamic properties. Among the methods, the variational data assimilation technique introduced by Le Dimet and Talagrand is applied. To that end, a variational data assimilation technique is implemented by applying automatic differentiation (AD) to augment computer codes with derivative computations. Note that very little effort is needed to obtain the differentiated code using the on-line Tapenade AD engine. Field data are collected for a three-layered CW located in Strasbourg (Alsace, France) at the water edge of the urban water stream Ostwaldergraben, during several months. Identification experiments are conducted by comparing measured and computed piezometric head by means of the least square objective function. The temporal variability of hydrodynamic parameter is then assessed and analyzed.

Keywords: automatic differentiation, constructed wetland, inverse method, mixed hybrid FEM, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Sanoj Sahu, Ramakar Jha

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Odisha (India) is in need of reliable, cost-effective power generation. A prolonged electricity crisis and increasing power demand have left over thousands of citizens without access to electricity, and much of the population suffers from sporadic outages. The purpose of this project is to build a methodology to evaluate small hydropower potential, which can be used to alleviate the Odisha’s energy problem among rural communities. This project has three major tasks: the design of a simple SHEP for a single location along a river in the Odisha; the development of water flow prediction equations through a linear regression analysis; and the design of an ArcGIS toolset to estimate the flow duration curves (FDCs) at locations where data do not exist. An explanation of the inputs to the tool, as well has how it produces a suitable output for SHEP evaluation will be presented. The paper also gives an explanation of hydroelectric power generation in the Odisha, SHEPs, and the technical and practical aspects of hydroelectric power. Till now, based on topographical and rainfall analysis we have located hundreds of sites. Further work on more number of site location and accuracy of location is to be done.

Keywords: small hydropower, ArcGIS, rainfall analysis, Odisha’s energy problem

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Authors: Tehrrie Konig, Cassiano Bortolozo, Daniel Metodiev, Rodolfo Mendes, Marcio Andrade, Marcio Moraes

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Gravitational mass movements are recurrent events in Brazil, usually triggered by intense rainfall. When these events occur in urban areas, they end up becoming disasters due to the economic damage, social impact, and loss of human life. To identify the landslide-susceptible areas, it is important to know the geotechnical parameters of the soil, such as cohesion, internal friction angle, unit weight, hydraulic conductivity, and hydraulic diffusivity. The measurement of these parameters is made by collecting soil samples to analyze in the laboratory and by using geophysical methodologies, such as Vertical Electrical Survey (VES). The geophysical surveys analyze the soil properties with minimal impact in its initial structure. Statistical analysis and mathematical models of physical basis are used to model and calculate the Factor of Safety for steep slope areas. In general, such mathematical models work from the combination of slope stability models and hydrological models. One example is the mathematical model TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope- Stability Model) which calculates the variation of the Factor of Safety of a determined study area. The model relies on changes in pore-pressure and soil moisture during a rainfall event. TRIGRS was written in the Fortran programming language and associates the hydrological model, which is based on the Richards Equation, with the stability model based on the principle of equilibrium limit. Therefore, the aims of this work are modeling the slope stability of Campos do Jordão with TRIGRS, using geotechnical and geophysical methodologies to acquire the soil properties. The study area is located at southern-east of Sao Paulo State in the Mantiqueira Mountains and has a historic landslide register. During the fieldwork, soil samples were collected, and the VES method applied. These procedures provide the soil properties, which were used as input data in the TRIGRS model. The hydrological data (infiltration rate and initial water table height) and rainfall duration and intensity, were acquired from the eight rain gauges installed by Cemaden in the study area. A very high spatial resolution digital terrain model was used to identify the slopes declivity. The analyzed period is from March 6th to March 8th of 2017. As results, the TRIGRS model calculates the variation of the Factor of Safety within a 72-hour period in which two heavy rainfall events stroke the area and six landslides were registered. After each rainfall, the Factor of Safety declined, as expected. The landslides happened in areas identified by the model with low values of Factor of Safety, proving its efficiency on the identification of landslides susceptible areas. This study presents a critical threshold for landslides, in which an accumulated rainfall higher than 80mm/m² in 72 hours might trigger landslides in urban and natural slopes. The geotechnical and geophysics methods are shown to be very useful to identify the soil properties and provide the geological characteristics of the area. Therefore, the combine geotechnical and geophysical methods for soil characterization and the modeling of landslides susceptible areas with TRIGRS are useful for urban planning. Furthermore, early warning systems can be developed by combining the TRIGRS model and weather forecast, to prevent disasters in urban slopes.

Keywords: landslides, susceptibility, TRIGRS, vertical electrical survey

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Authors: Emmanuel Yussuf, John Muthama, John Ng'ang'A

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There has been increasing noise levels all over the world in the last decade. Many factors contribute to this increase, which is causing health related effects to humans. Developing countries are not left out of the whole picture as they are still growing and advancing their development. Motor vehicles are increasing on urban roads; there is an increase in infrastructure due to the rising population, increasing number of industries to provide goods and so many other activities. All this activities lead to the high noise levels in cities. This study was conducted in Nairobi’s Central Business District (CBD) with the main objective of simulating noise levels in order to understand the noise exposed to the people within the urban area, in relation to weather parameters namely temperature, rainfall and wind field. The study was achieved using the Neighbourhood Proximity Model and Time Series Analysis, with data obtained from proxies/remotely-sensed from satellites, in order to establish the levels of noise exposed to which people of Nairobi CBD are exposed to. The findings showed that there is an increase in temperature (0.1°C per year) and a decrease in precipitation (40 mm per year), which in comparison to the noise levels in the area, are increasing. The study also found out that noise levels exposed to people in Nairobi CBD were roughly between 61 and 63 decibels and has been increasing, a level which is high and likely to cause adverse physical and psychological effects on the human body in which air temperature, precipitation and wind contribute so much in the spread of noise. As a noise reduction measure, the use of sound proof materials in buildings close to busy roads, implementation of strict laws to most emitting sources as well as further research on the study was recommended. The data used for this study ranged from the year 2000 to 2015, rainfall being in millimeters (mm), temperature in degrees Celsius (°C) and the urban form characteristics being in meters (m).

Keywords: simulation, noise exposure, weather, proxy

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Authors: O. Ikpotokin

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In any production process, every product is aimed to attain a certain standard, but the presence of assignable cause of variability affects our process, thereby leading to low quality of product. The ability to identify and remove this type of variability reduces its overall effect, thereby improving the quality of the product. In case of a univariate control chart signal, it is easy to detect the problem and give a solution since it is related to a single quality characteristic. However, the problems involved in the use of multivariate control chart are the violation of multivariate normal assumption and the difficulty in identifying the quality characteristic(s) that resulted in the out of control signals. The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of non-parametric control chart (the bootstrap approach) for obtaining control limit to overcome the problem of multivariate distributional assumption and the p-value method for detecting out of control signals. Results from a performance study show that the proposed bootstrap method enables the setting of control limit that can enhance the detection of out of control signals when compared, while the p-value method also enhanced in identifying out of control variables.

Keywords: bootstrap control limit, p-value method, out-of-control signals, p-value, quality characteristics

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Authors: Eva Savy, Anthony Ruiz

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In extrusion blow molding, there is great variability in product quality due to the sensitivity of the machine settings. These variations lead to unnecessary rejects and loss of time. Yet production control is a major challenge for companies in this sector to remain competitive within their market. Current quality control methods only apply to finished products (vision control, leak test...). It has been shown that material melt temperature, blowing pressure, and ambient temperature have a significant impact on the variability of product quality. Since blowing is a key step in the process, we have studied this parameter in this paper. The objective is to determine if airflow analysis allows the identification of quality problems before the full completion of the manufacturing process. We conducted tests to determine if it was possible to identify a leakage defect and an obstructed defect, two common defects on products. The results showed that it was possible to identify a leakage defect by airflow analysis.

Keywords: extrusion blow molding, signal, sensor, defects, detection

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Authors: Leonard Chimaobi Agim, Charles Arinzechukwu Igwe, Emmanuel Uzoma Onweremadu, Gabreil Osuji

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Soil erosion has been linked to stream sedimentation, ecosystem degradation, and loss of soil nutrients. A study was conducted to evaluate the effect of some organic amendment on sediment yield, splash loss, and runoff of soils of selected parent materials in southeastern Nigeria. A total of 20 locations, five from each of four parent materials namely: Asu River Group (ARG), Bende Ameki Group (BAG), Coastal Plain Sand (CPS) and Falsebedded Sandstone (FBS) were used for the study. Collected soil samples were analyzed with standard methods for the initial soil properties. Rainfall simulation at an intensity of 190 mm hr-1was conducted for 30 minutes on the soil samples at both the initial stage and after amendment to obtain erosion parameters. The influence of parent material on sediment yield, splash loss and runoff based on rainfall simulation was tested for using one way analyses of variance, while the influence of organic material and their combinations were a factorially fitted in a randomized complete block design. The organic amendments include; goat dropping (GD), poultry dropping (PD), municipal solid waste (MSW) and their combinations (COA) applied at four rates of 0, 10, 20 and 30 t ha-1 respectively. Data were analyzed using analyses of variance suitable for a factorial experiment. Significant means were separated using LSD at 5 % probability levels. Result showed significant (p ≤ 0.05) lower values of sediment yield, splash loss and runoff following amendment. For instance, organic amendment reduced sediment yield under wet and dry runs by 12.91 % and 26.16% in Ishiagu, 40.76% and 45.67%, in Bende, 16.17% and 50% in Obinze and 22.80% and 42.35% in Umulolo respectively. Goat dropping and combination of amendment gave the best results in reducing sediment yield.

Keywords: organic amendment, parent material, rainfall simulation, soil erosion

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Authors: Dinesha Siriwardhane, Indralal De Silva, Sampath Amaratunge

Abstract:

Objective of this study is to explore the recent trends, patterns and the structural changes in the labour migration from Sri Lanka to Middle East countries and to discuss the possible impacts of those changes on the remittance flow. Study uses secondary data published by Sri Lanka Bureau of Foreign Employment and Central Bank. Thematic analysis of the secondary data revealed that the migration for labour has increased rapidly during past decades. Parallel with that the gender and the skill composition of the migration flow has been changing. Similarly, the destinations for male migration have changed over the period. These show positive implications on the international remittance receipts to the country.

Keywords: migration, middle east, Sri Lanka, social sciences

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Authors: Apkar Salatian

Abstract:

To relieve the burden of reasoning on a point to point basis, in many domains there is a need to reduce large and noisy data sets into trends for qualitative reasoning. In this paper we propose and describe a new architectural design pattern called REDUCER for reducing large and noisy data sets that can be tailored for particular situations. REDUCER consists of 2 consecutive processes: Filter which takes the original data and removes outliers, inconsistencies or noise; and Compression which takes the filtered data and derives trends in the data. In this seminal article, we also show how REDUCER has successfully been applied to 3 different case studies.

Keywords: design pattern, filtering, compression, architectural design

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Authors: Zulkifli Yusop

Abstract:

The severity of December 2014 flood on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia has raised concern over the adequacy of existing land use practices and policies. This article assesses flood responses to selective logging, plantation establishment (oil palm and rubber) and their subsequent management regimes. The hydrological impacts were evaluated on two levels: on-site (mostly in the upstream) and off-site to reflect the cumulative impact at downstream. Results of experimental catchment studies suggest that on-site impact of flood could be kept to a minimum when selecting logging strictly adhere to the existing guidelines. However, increases in flood potential and sedimentation rate were observed with logging intensity and slope steepness. Forest conversion to plantation show the highest impacts. Except on the heavily compacted surfaces, the ground revegetation is usually rapid within two years upon the cessation of the logging operation. The hydrological impacts of plantation opening and replanting could be significantly reduced once the cover crop has fully established which normally takes between three to six months after sowing. However, as oil palms become taller and the canopy gets closer, the cover crop tends to die off due to light competition, and its protecting function gradually diminishes. The exposed soil is further compacted by harvesting machinery which subsequently leads to greater overland flow and erosion rates. As such, the hydrological properties of matured oil palm plantations are generally poorer than in young plantation. In hilly area, the undergrowth in rubber plantation is usually denser compared to under oil palm. The soil under rubber trees is also less compacted as latex collection is done manually. By considering the cumulative effects of land-use over space and time, selective logging seems to pose the least impact on flood potential, followed by planting rubber for latex, oil palm and Latex Timber Clone (LTC). The cumulative hydrological impact of LTC plantation is the most severe because of its shortest replanting rotation (12 to 15 years) compared to oil palm (25 years) and rubber for latex (35 years). Furthermore, the areas gazetted for LTC are mostly located on steeper slopes which are more susceptible to landslide and erosion. Forest has limited capability to store excess rainfall and is only effective in attenuating regular floods. Once the hydrologic storage is exceeded, the excess rainfall will appear as flood water. Therefore, for big floods, rainfall regime has a much bigger influence than land use.

Keywords: selective logging, plantation, extreme rainfall, debris flow

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Authors: Y. Fekir, K. Mederbal, M. A. Hamadouche, D. Anteur

Abstract:

The soil erosion by water has become one of the biggest problems of the environment in the world, threatening the majority of countries. There are several models to evaluate erosion. These models are still a simplified representation of reality. They permit the analysis of complex systems, measurements are complementary to allow an extrapolation in time and space and may combine different factors. The empirical model of soil loss proposed by Wischmeier and Smith (Universal Soil Loss Equation), is widely used in many countries. He considers that erosion is a multiplicative function of five factors: rainfall erosivity (the R factor) the soil erodibility factor (K), topography (LS), the erosion control practices (P) and vegetation cover and agricultural practices (C). In this work, we tried to develop a tool based on Web GIS functionality to evaluate soil losses caused by erosion taking into account five factors. This tool allows the user to integrate all the data needed for the evaluation (DEM, Land use, rainfall ...) in the form of digital layers to calculate the five factors taken into account in the USLE equation (R, K, C, P, LS). Accordingly, and after treatment of the integrated data set, a map of the soil losses will be achieved as a result. We tested the proposed tool on a watershed basin located in the weste of Algeria where a dataset was collected and prepared.

Keywords: USLE, erosion, web gis, Algeria

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Authors: Lakmali Anthony, Madeline Gillies

Abstract:

Background: Incisional and ventral hernias are highly prevalent, with primary ventral hernias occurring in approximately 20% of adults and incisional hernias developing in up to 30% of midline abdominal incisions. Recent data from the United States have shown an increasing incidence of elective incisional and ventral hernia repair (IVHR) and emergency repair of complicated hernias. This study examines Australian population trends in IVHR over a two-decade study period. Methods: This retrospective study was performed using procedure data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics captured between 2000 and 2021 to calculate incidence rates per 100,000 population by age and sex for selected subcategories of IVHR operations. Trends over time were evaluated using simple linear regression. Results: There were 809,308 IVHR operations performed in Australia during the study period. The cumulative incidence adjusted for the population was 182 per 100,000; this increased by 9.578 per year during the study period (95% CI = 8.431- 10.726, p<.001). IVHR for primary umbilical hernias experienced the most significant increase in population-adjusted incidence, 1.177 per year. (95% CI = 0.654- 1.701, p<.001). Emergency IVHR for incarcerated, obstructed, and strangulated hernias increased by 0.576 per year (95% CI = 0.510 -0.642, p<.001). Only 20.2% of IVHR procedures were performed as day surgery. Conclusions: Australia has seen a significant increase in IVHR operations performed in the last 20 years, particularly those for primary ventral hernias. IVHR for hernias complicated by incarceration, obstruction, and strangulation also increased significantly. The proportion of IVHR operations performed as day surgery is well below the target set by the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons. With the increasing incidence of IVHR operations and an increasing proportion of these being emergent, elective IVHR should be performed as day surgery when it is safe.

Keywords: ventral, incisional, hernia, trends

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Authors: Yasir Ali, Farhatullah

Abstract:

The present study was conducted to estimate the genetic variability, heritability and genetic advance in six parental lines and their 56 genotypes derived from five introgressed brassica populations on the basis of morphological and biochemical traits. The experiment was laid out in a randomized complete block design with two replications at The University of Agriculture Peshawar-Pakistan during growing season of 2015-2016. The ANOVA of all traits of F5:6 populations showed highly significant differences (P ≤ 0.01) for all morphological and biochemical traits. Among F5:6 populations, the genotype 2(526) was earlier in flowering (108.65 days), and genotype 14(485) was earlier in maturity (170 days). Tallest plants (182.5 cm), largest main raceme (91.5 cm) and maximum number of pods (80.5) on main raceme were recorded for genotype 17(34). Maximum primary branches plant-1(6.2) and longest pods (10.26 cm) were recorded for genotype 15, while genotype 16(171) had more seeds pod⁻¹ (22) and gave maximum yield plant-1 (30.22 g). The maximum 100-seed weight (0.60 g) was observed for genotype 10(506) while high protein content (22.61%) was recorded for genotype 4(99). Maximum oil content (54.08 %) and low linoleic acid (7.07 %) were produced by genotype (12(138) and low glucosinolate (59.01 µMg⁻¹) was recorded for genotype 21(113). The genotype 27(303) having high oleic acid content (51.73 %) and genotype 1(209) gave low erucic acid (35.97 %). Among the F5:6 populations moderate to high heritability observed for all morphological and biochemical traits coupled with high genetic advance. Cluster analysis grouped the 56 F5:6 populations along their parental lines into seven different groups. Each group was different from the other group on the basis of morphological and biochemical traits. Moreover all the F5:6 populations showed sufficient variability. Genotypes 10(506) and 16(171) were superior for high seed yield⁻¹, 100-seeds weight, and seed pod⁻¹ and are recommended for future breeding program.

Keywords: Brassicaceae, biochemical characterization, introgression, morphological characterization

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