Search results for: time series regression

Authors: Qikai Guan

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With the deepening of China's urbanization process, the development of urban industry has entered a new period, due to the gradual compounding and diversification of urban industrial functions, urban planning has shifted from the previous single industrial space arrangement and functional design to focusing on the upgrading of the urban structure, and on the diversified needs of people. As an important part of urban activity space, ‘slow moving space’ is of great significance in alleviating urban traffic congestion, optimizing residents' travel experience and improving urban ecological space. Therefore, this paper takes the slow-moving transportation system under the perspective of industry-city integration as the starting point, through sorting out the development needs of the city in the process of industry-city integration, analyzing the characteristics of the site base, sorting out a series of compatibility between the layout of the new industrial zone and the urban slow-moving system, and integrating the design concepts. At the same time, through the analysis and summarization of domestic and international experience, the construction ideas are proposed. Finally, the following aspects of planning strategy optimization are proposed: industrial layout, urban vitality, ecological pattern, regional characteristics and landscape image. In terms of specific design, on the one hand, it builds a regional slow-moving network, puts forward a diversified design strategy for the industry-oriented and multi-functional composite central area, realizes the coexistence of pedestrian-oriented and multiple transportation modes, basically covers the public facilities, and enhances the vitality of the city. On the other hand, it improves the landscape ecosystem, creates a healthy, diversified and livable superline landscape system, helps the construction of the ‘green core’ of the central city, and improves the travel experience of the residents.

Keywords: industry-city integration, slow-moving system, public space, functional integration

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Authors: Ansoné Human, Nantes Kirsten, Tanja Verster, Willem D. Schutte

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Every year the telecommunications industry suffers huge losses due to fraud. Mobile fraud, or generally, telecommunications fraud is the utilisation of telecommunication products or services to acquire money illegally from or failing to pay a telecommunication company. A South African telecommunication operator developed two internal fraud scorecards to mitigate future risks of application fraud events. The scorecards aim to predict the likelihood of an application being fraudulent and surprise fraudsters before they surprise the telecommunication operator by identifying fraud at the time of application. The scorecards are utilised in the vetting process to evaluate the applicant in terms of the fraud risk the applicant would present to the telecommunication operator. Telecommunication providers can utilise these scorecards to profile customers, as well as isolate fraudulent and/or high-risk applicants. We provide the complete methodology utilised in the development of the scorecards. Furthermore, a Determination and Discrimination (DD) ratio is provided in the methodology to select the most influential variables from a group of related variables. Throughout the development of these scorecards, the following was revealed regarding fraudulent cases and fraudster behaviour within the telecommunications industry: Fraudsters typically target high-value handsets. Furthermore, debit order dates scheduled for the end of the month have the highest fraud probability. The fraudsters target specific stores. Applicants who acquire an expensive package and receive a medium-income, as well as applicants who obtain an expensive package and receive a high income, have higher fraud percentages. If one month prior to application, the status of an account is already in arrears (two months or more), the applicant has a high probability of fraud. The applicants with the highest average spend on calls have a higher probability of fraud. If the amount collected changes from month to month, the likelihood of fraud is higher. Lastly, young and middle-aged applicants have an increased probability of being targeted by fraudsters than other ages.

Keywords: application fraud scorecard, predictive modeling, regression, telecommunications

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Ahmed Osama, Hassan A. Mahdy, Khalid A. Kandil, Mohamed Elhabiby

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Automatic Vehicle Location systems (AVL) have been used worldwide for more than twenty years and have showed great success in public transportation management and monitoring. Cairo public bus service suffers from several problems such as unscheduled stops, unscheduled route deviations, and inaccurate schedules, which have negative impacts on service reliability. This research aims to study those problems for a selected bus route in Cairo using a prototype AVL system. Experimental trips were run on the selected route; and the locations of unscheduled stops, regions of unscheduled deviations, along with other trip time and speed data were collected. Data was analyzed to demonstrate the reliability of passengers on the unscheduled stops compared to the scheduled ones. Trip time was also modeled to assess the unscheduled stops’ impact on trip time, and to check the accuracy of the applied scheduled trip time. Moreover, frequency and length of the unscheduled route deviations, as well as their impact on the bus stops, were illustrated. Solutions were proposed for the bus service deficiencies using the AVL system. Finally, recommendations were proposed for further research.

Keywords: automatic vehicle location, public transportation, unscheduled stops, unscheduled route deviations, inaccurate schedule

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Authors: Bachir Chemani, Rachid Halfaoui, Madani Maalem

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The manufacturing technology of band cotton is very delicate and depends to choice of certain parameters such as torsion of warp yarn. The fabric elasticity is achieved without the use of any elastic material, chemical expansion, artificial or synthetic and it’s capable of creating pressures useful for therapeutic treatments.Before use, the band is subjected to treatments of specific preparation for obtaining certain elasticity, however, during its treatment, there are some regression parameters. The dependence of manufacturing parameters on the quality of the chemical treatment was confirmed. The aim of this work is to improve the properties of the fabric through the development of manufacturing technology appropriately. Finally for the treatment of the strip pancake 100% cotton, a treatment method is recommended.

Keywords: elastic, cotton, processing, torsion

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Authors: Po-Chien Li

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Despite the extant literature has hosted a wide-range of knowledge about trade shows, this knowledge base deserves to be further expanded and extended because there exist many unclear issues and overlooked topics. One area that needs much research attention is regarding the behavior and performance of booth workers at the exhibition site. Booth staffs play many key roles in interacting with booth visitors. Their exhibiting-related attitudes and motivations might have significant consequences on a firm’s exhibition results. However, to date, little research, if any, has studied how booth workers are affected and behave in the context of trade fair. The primary purpose of the current study is to develop and test a research model, derived from role theory and resource-based viewpoint, that depicts the effects of a firm’s pre-exhibition resource investment behavior on booth staff’s role perceptions and work behavior during the exhibition period. The author collects data with two survey questionnaires at two trade shows in 2016. One questionnaire is given to the booth head of an exhibiting company, asking about the firm’s resource commitment behavior prior to the exhibition period. In contrast, another questionnaire is provided for a booth worker of the same firm, requesting the individual staff to report his/her own role perceptions, degree of exhibition goal acceptance, and level of work effort during the exhibition period. The study has utilized the following analytic methods, including descriptive statistics, exploratory factor analysis, reliability analysis, and regression analysis. The results of a set of regression analyses show that a firm’s pre-exhibition resource investment behavior has significant effects on a booth staff’s exhibiting perceptions and attitudes. Specifically, an exhibitor’s resource investment behavior has impacts on the factors of booth staff’s role clarity and role conflict. In addition, a booth worker’s role clarity is related to the degree of exhibition goal acceptance, but his/her role conflict is not. Finally, a booth worker’s exhibiting effort is significantly related to the individual’s role clarity, role conflict and goal acceptance. In general, the major contribution of the current research is that it offers insight into and early evidence on the links between an exhibiting firm’s resource commitment behavior and the work perceptions and attitudes of booth staffs during the exhibition period. The current research’s results can benefit the extant literature of exhibition marketing.

Keywords: exhibition resource investment, role perceptions, goal acceptance, work effort

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Authors: Asfaw Gezae Daful, Mohsen Alimandagari, Kathleen Haigh, Somayeh Farzad, Eugene Van Rensburg, Johann F. Görgens

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The sugar industry has to 're-invent' itself to ensure long-term economic survival and opportunities for job creation and enhanced community-level impacts, given increasing pressure from fluctuating and low global sugar prices, increasing energy prices and sustainability demands. We propose biorefineries for re-vitalisation of the sugar industry using low value lignocellulosic biomass (sugarcane bagasse, leaves, and tops) annexed to existing sugar mills, producing a spectrum of high value platform chemicals along with biofuel, bioenergy, and electricity. Opportunity is presented for greener products, to mitigate climate change and overcome economic challenges. Xylose from labile hemicellulose remains largely underutilized and the conversion to value-add products a major challenge. Insight is required on pretreatment and/or extraction to optimize production of cellulosic ethanol together with lactic acid, furfural or biopolymers from sugarcane bagasse, leaves, and tops. Experimental conditions for alkaline and pressurized hot water extraction dilute acid and steam explosion pretreatment of sugarcane bagasse and harvest residues were investigated to serve as a basis for developing various process scenarios under a sugarcane biorefinery scheme. Dilute acid and steam explosion pretreatment were optimized for maximum hemicellulose recovery, combined sugar yield and solids digestibility. An optimal range of conditions for alkaline and liquid hot water extraction of hemicellulosic biopolymers, as well as conditions for acceptable enzymatic digestibility of the solid residue, after such extraction was established. Using data from the above, a series of energy efficient biorefinery scenarios are under development and modeled using Aspen Plus® software, to simulate potential factories to better understand the biorefinery processes and estimate the CAPEX and OPEX, environmental impacts, and overall viability. Rigorous and detailed sustainability assessment methodology was formulated to address all pillars of sustainability. This work is ongoing and to date, models have been developed for some of the processes which can ultimately be combined into biorefinery scenarios. This will allow systematic comparison of a series of biorefinery scenarios to assess the potential to reduce negative impacts on and maximize the benefits of social, economic, and environmental factors on a lifecycle basis.

Keywords: biomass, biorefinery, green economy, sustainability

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Authors: Ghorbanali Mohammadi

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New approaches to sequencing mixed-model manufacturing systems are present. These approaches have attracted considerable attention due to their potential to deal with difficult optimization problems. This paper presents Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing Algorithms (MOSAA) approaches to the Just-In-Time (JIT) sequencing problem where workload-smoothing (WL) and the number of set-ups (St) are to be optimized simultaneously. Mixed-model assembly lines are types of production lines where varieties of product models similar in product characteristics are assembled. Moreover, this type of problem is NP-hard. Two annealing methods are proposed to solve the multi-objective problem and find an efficient frontier of all design configurations. The performances of the two methods are tested on several problems from the literature. Experimentation demonstrates the relative desirable performance of the presented methodology.

Keywords: scheduling, just-in-time, mixed-model assembly line, sequencing, simulated annealing

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Authors: Somayyeh Karimiyan

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To evaluate the seismic vulnerability of vital offshore structures with the highest possible precision, Nonlinear Time History Analyses (NLTHA), is the most reliable method. However, since it is very time-consuming, a quick procedure is greatly desired. This paper presents a quick method by combining the Push Over Analysis (POA) and the NLTHA. The POA is preformed first to recognize the more critical members, and then the NLTHA is performed to evaluate more precisely the critical members’ vulnerability. The proposed method has been applied to jacket type structure. Results show that combining POA and NLTHA is a reliable seismic evaluation method, and also that none of the earthquake characteristics alone, can be a dominant factor in vulnerability evaluation.

Keywords: jacket structure, seismic evaluation, push-over and nonlinear time history analyses, critical members

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Authors: S. A. Tabatabaei, S. Aarabi

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Predicting the hot mix asphalt (HMA) response and performance is a challenging task because of the subjectivity of HMA under the complex loading and environmental condition. The behavior of HMA is a function of temperature of loading and also shows the time and rate-dependent behavior directly affecting design criteria of mixture. Velocity of load passing make the time and rate. The viscoelasticity illustrates the reaction of HMA under loading and environmental conditions such as temperature and moisture effect. The behavior has direct effect on design criteria such as tensional strain and vertical deflection. In this paper, the computational framework for viscoelasticity and implementation in 3D dimensional HMA model is introduced to use in finite element method. The model was lied under various repeated loading conditions at constant temperature. The response of HMA viscoelastic behavior is investigated in loading condition under speed vehicle and sensitivity of behavior to the range of speed and compared to HMA which is supposed to have elastic behavior as in conventional design methods. The results show the importance of loading time pulse, unloading time and various speeds on design criteria. Also the importance of memory fading of material to storing the strain and stress due to repeated loading was shown. The model was simulated by ABAQUS finite element package

Keywords: viscoelasticity, finite element method, repeated loading, HMA

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Authors: Rashid Mahmood, Muhammad Sufyan, Nasir Ahmed

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The MANETs have lessened transportation and decentralized network. There are numerous basis of routing protocols. We derived the MANETs protocol into three major categories like Reactive, Proactive and hybrid. In these protocols, we discussed only some protocols like Distance Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV), Ad hoc on Demand Distance Vector (AODV) and Dynamic Source Routing (DSR). The AODV and DSR are both reactive type of protocols. On the other hand, DSDV is proactive type protocol here. We compare these routing protocols for network security estimated by network simulator (NS-2). In this dissertation some parameters discussed such as simulation time, packet size, number of node, packet delivery fraction, push time and speed etc. We will construct all these parameters on routing protocols under suitable conditions for network security measures.

Keywords: DSDV, AODV, DSR NS-2, PDF, push time

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Authors: Ruth Shapira

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Introduction: The rapid urbanization of the last century confronts planners, regulatory bodies, developers and most of all – the public with seemingly unsolved conflicts regarding values, capital, and wellbeing of the built and un-built urban space. This is reflected in the quality of the urban form and life which has known no significant progress in the last 2-3 decades despite the on-growing urban population. It is the objective of this paper to analyze some of these fundamental issues through the case study of a relatively small town in the center of Israel (Kiryat-Ono, 100,000 inhabitants), unfold the deep structure of qualities versus disruptors, present some cure that we have developed to bridge over and humbly suggest a practice that may be generic for similar cases. Basic Methodologies: The OBJECT, the town of Kiryat Ono, shall be experimented upon in a series of four action processes: De-composition, Re-composition, the Centering process and, finally, Controlled Structural Disintegration. Each stage will be based on facts, analysis of previous multidisciplinary interventions on various layers – and the inevitable reaction of the OBJECT, leading to the conclusion based on innovative theoretical and practical methods that we have developed and that we believe are proper for the open ended network, setting the rules for the contemporary urban society to cluster by. The Study: Kiryat Ono, was founded 70 years ago as an agricultural settlement and rapidly turned into an urban entity. In spite the massive intensification, the original DNA of the old small town was still deeply embedded, mostly in the quality of the public space and in the sense of clustered communities. In the past 20 years, the recent demand for housing has been addressed to on the national level with recent master plans and urban regeneration policies mostly encouraging individual economic initiatives. Unfortunately, due to the obsolete existing planning platform the present urban renewal is characterized by pressure of developers, a dramatic change in building scale and widespread disintegration of the existing urban and social tissue. Our office was commissioned to conceptualize two master plans for the two contradictory processes of Kiryat Ono’s future: intensification and conservation. Following a comprehensive investigation into the deep structures and qualities of the existing town, we developed a new vocabulary of conservation terms thus redefying the sense of PLACE. The main challenge was to create master plans that should offer a regulatory basis to the accelerated and sporadic development providing for the public good and preserving the characteristics of the PLACE consisting of a tool box of design guidelines that will have the ability to reorganize space along the time axis in a coherent way. In Conclusion: The system of rules that we have developed can generate endless possible patterns making sure that at each implementation fragment an event is created, and a better place is revealed. It takes time and perseverance but it seems to be the way to provide a healthy framework for the accelerated urbanization of our chaotic present.

Keywords: housing, architecture, urban qualities, urban regeneration, conservation, intensification

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Authors: Meryem Imane Babaghayou, Asma Abdelhafidi, Salem Fouad Chabira, Mohammed Sebaa

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A challenge of plastics industries is the realization of materials that resist the degradation in its application environment, and that to guarantee a longer life time therefore an optimal time of use. Blown extruded films of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) supplied by SABIC SAUDI ARABIA blown and extruded in SOFIPLAST company in Setif ALGERIA , have been subjected to climatic ageing in a sub-Saharan facility at Laghouat (Algeria) with direct exposure to sun. Samples were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) techniques after prescribed amounts of time up to 8 months. It has been shown via these two techniques the impact of UV irradiation on the morphological development of a plastic material, especially the crystallinity degree which increases with exposure time. The reason of these morphological changes is related to photooxidative reactions leading to cross linking in the beginning and to chain scissions for an advanced stage of ageing this last ones are the first responsible. The crystallinity degree change is essentially controlled by the secondary crystallization of the amorphous chains whose mobility is enhanced by the chain scission processes. The diffusion of these short segments integrates the surface of the lamellae increasing in this way their thicknesses. The results presented highlight the complexity of the involved phenomena.

Keywords: Low Density poly (Ethylene), crystallinity, ageing, XRD, DSC

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Authors: N. P. Tien, S. Songsermpong, T. H. Quan

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Mung bean vermicelli is a popular food in Asian countries and is made from mung bean starch. The preparation process involves several steps, including drying, which affects the structure and quality of the vermicelli. This study aims to examine the effects of different drying technologies on the rehydration time and quality of mung bean vermicelli. Three drying technologies, namely hot air drying, microwave continuous drying, and microwave vacuum drying, were used for the drying process. The vermicelli strands were dried at 45°C for 12h in a hot air dryer, at 70 Hz of conveyor belt speed inverter in a microwave continuous dryer, and at 30 W.g⁻¹ of microwave power density in a microwave vacuum dryer. The results showed that mung bean vermicelli dried using hot air drying had the longest rehydration time of 12.69 minutes. On the other hand, vermicelli dried through microwave continuous drying and microwave vacuum drying had shorter rehydration times of 2.79 minutes and 2.14 minutes, respectively. Microwave vacuum drying also resulted in larger porosity, higher water absorption, and cooking loss. The tensile strength and elasticity of vermicelli dried using hot air drying were higher compared to microwave drying technologies. The sensory evaluation did not reveal significant differences in most attributes among the vermicelli treatments. Overall, microwave drying technology proved to be effective in reducing rehydration time and producing good-quality mung bean vermicelli.

Keywords: mung bean vermicelli, drying, hot air, microwave continuous, microwave vacuum

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Authors: Saad Saeed Althiabi

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This paper discusses the corporate positioning and how it became popular as a way to systematize production because of the unique manner in which incorporation legalized organizers to secure financial capital through locking it in. The power to lock in capital comes from the fact that a corporate exists as a separate legal entity, whose survival and governance are separated from any of its participants. The law essentially creates a different legal person when a corporation is created. Although this idea has been played down in the legal learning of the last decades in favor of the view that a corporation is purely something through which natural persons interrelate, recent legal research has begun to reassess the importance of entity status. Entity status, under the law and the related separation of governance from input of financial capital through the configuration of a corporation, sanctioned corporate participants to do somewhat more than connect in a series of business transactions.

Keywords: corporate law, entity status, locking in capital, financial capital

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang, Georgianna Duarte

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This study investigated the attention problems with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). Two thousand eight hundred and ninety-four adolescents were surveyed by using a stratified sampling method. We examined the relationships between relevant background variables and attention problems. Multiple regression models were applied to analyze the data. Relevant variables such as sports activities, hobbies, age, grade and the number of close friends were included in this study as predictive variables. The analysis results indicated that educational environments and extracurricular activities are important factors which influence students’ attention problems.

Keywords: adolescents, ASEBA, attention problems, educational environments, stratified sampling

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Authors: Achsania Hendratmi, Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum, Fatin Fadhilah Hasib, Nisful Laila

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The research aimed to know the influence of Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Return on Assets (ROA) and Size of the Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR) Islamic Banks in Malaysia by using eleven Islamic Banks in Indonesia and fifteen Islamic Banks in Malaysia in the period 2012 to 2016 as samples. The research used a quantitative approach method, and the analysis technique used multiple linear regression. Based on the result of t-test (partial), CAR, ROA and size significantly affect of FDR. While the results of f-test (simultaneous) showed that CAR, ROA and Size significant effect on FDR.

Keywords: capital adequacy ratio, financing to deposit ratio, return on assets, size

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Authors: Muhamad Azani Yahya, Vikneswaran Munikanan, Mohammed Alias Yusof

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There is the need to take the holistic approach in achieving sustainable construction for a contemporary practice. Sustainable construction is the practice that involved method of human preservation of the environment, whether economically or socially through responsibility, management of resources and maintenance utilizing support. This paper shows the correlation of achieving rapid construction with sustainable concepts using lean principles. Lean principles being used widely in the manufacturing industry, but this research will demonstrate the principles into building construction. Lean principle offers the benefits of stabilizing work flow and elimination of unnecessary work. Therefore, this principle contributes to time and waste reduction. The correlation shows that pulling factor provides the improvement of progress curve and stabilizing the time-quality relation. The finding shows the lean principles offer the elements of rapid construction synchronized with the elements of sustainability.

Keywords: sustainable construction, rapid construction, time reduction, lean construction

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Authors: Bello Gonzalez, Setten Van M., Brouwer M.

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The chicken small intestine represents a dynamic and complex organ in which the enzymatic digestion and absorption of nutrients take place. The development of an in vitro fermentation chicken small intestinal model could be used as an alternative to explore the interaction between the microbiota and nutrient metabolism and to enhance the efficacy of targeting interventions to improve animal health. In the present study we have developed an in vitro fermentation chicken ileum microbiota model for unrevealing the complex interaction of ileum microbial community under physiological conditions. A two-vessel continuous fermentation process simulating in real-time the physiological conditions of the ileum content (pH, temperature, microaerophilic/anoxic conditions, and peristaltic movements) has been standardized as a proof of concept. As inoculum, we use a pool of ileum microbial community obtained from chicken broilers at the age of day 14. The development and validation of the model provide insight into the initial characterization of the ileum microbial community and its dynamics over time-related to nutrient assimilation and fermentation. Samples can be collected at different time points and can be used to determine the microbial compositional structure, dynamics, and diversity over time. The results of studies using this in vitro model will serve as the foundation for the development of a whole small intestine in vitro fermentation chicken gastrointestinal model to complement our already established in vitro fermentation chicken caeca model. The insight gained from this model could provide us with some information about the nutritional strategies to restore and maintain chicken gut homeostasis. Moreover, the in vitro fermentation model will also allow us to study relationships between gut microbiota composition and its dynamics over time associated with nutrients, antimicrobial compounds, and disease modelling.

Keywords: broilers, in vitro model, ileum microbiota, fermentation

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Authors: Mohamed Elbehery

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Historical textiles in the burial environment or in museums are exposed to many types of stains and dirt that are associated with historical textiles by multiple chemical bonds that cause damage to historical textiles. The cleaning process must be carried out with great care, with no irreversible damage, and sediments removed without affecting the original material of the surface being cleaned. Science and technology continue to provide innovative systems in the bio-cleaning process (using pure enzymes) of historical textiles and artistic surfaces. Lipase and α-amylase were immobilized on nanoparticles of alginate/κ-carrageenan nanoparticle complex and used in historical textiles cleaning. Preparation of nanoparticles, activation, and enzymes immobilization were characterized. Optimization of loading time and units of the two enzymes were done. It was found that, the optimum time and units of amylase were 4 hrs and 25U, respectively. While, the optimum time and units of lipase were 3 hrs and 15U, respectively. The methods used to examine the fibers using a scanning electron microscope equipped with an X-ray energy dispersal unit: SEM with EDX unit.

Keywords: nanoparticles, enzymes, immobilization, textiles

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Authors: They Shao Peng

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Machine vision system for inspection is an automated technology that is normally utilized to analyze items on the production line for quality control purposes, it also can be known as an automated visual inspection (AVI) system. By applying automated visual inspection, the existence of items, defects, contaminants, flaws, and other irregularities in manufactured products can be easily detected in a short time and accurately. However, AVI systems are still inflexible and expensive due to their uniqueness for a specific task and consuming a lot of set-up time and space. With the rapid development of mobile devices, smartphones can be an alternative device for the visual system to solve the existing problems of AVI. Since the smartphone-based AVI system is still at a nascent stage, this led to the motivation to investigate the smartphone-based AVI system. This study is aimed to provide a low-cost AVI system with high efficiency and flexibility. In this project, the object detection models, which are You Only Look Once (YOLO) model and Single Shot MultiBox Detector (SSD) model, are trained, evaluated, and integrated with the smartphone and webcam devices. The performance of the smartphone-based AVI is compared with the webcam-based AVI according to the precision and inference time in this study. Additionally, a mobile application is developed which allows users to implement real-time object detection and object detection from image storage.

Keywords: automated visual inspection, deep learning, machine vision, mobile application

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Authors: Randa Alharbi, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

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Systems biology is an important field in science which focuses on studying behaviour of biological systems. Modelling is required to produce detailed description of the elements of a biological system, their function, and their interactions. A well-designed model requires selecting a suitable mechanism which can capture the main features of the system, define the essential components of the system and represent an appropriate law that can define the interactions between its components. Complex biological systems exhibit stochastic behaviour. Thus, using probabilistic models are suitable to describe and analyse biological systems. Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is one of the probabilistic models that describe the system as a set of discrete states with continuous time transitions between them. The system is then characterised by a set of probability distributions that describe the transition from one state to another at a given time. The evolution of these probabilities through time can be obtained by chemical master equation which is analytically intractable but it can be simulated. Uncertain parameters of such a model can be inferred using methods of Bayesian inference. Yet, inference in such a complex system is challenging as it requires the evaluation of the likelihood which is intractable in most cases. There are different statistical methods that allow simulating from the model despite intractability of the likelihood. Approximate Bayesian computation is a common approach for tackling inference which relies on simulation of the model to approximate the intractable likelihood. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is another approach which is based on using sequential Monte Carlo to estimate intractable likelihood. However, both methods are computationally expensive. In this paper we discuss the efficiency and possible practical issues for each method, taking into account the computational time for these methods. We demonstrate likelihood-free inference by performing analysing a model of the Repressilator using both methods. Detailed investigation is performed to quantify the difference between these methods in terms of efficiency and computational cost.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC), Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

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Authors: Mohammad Amin Mozaheb, Jalal Farzaneh Dehkordi, Khojasteh Hosseinzadehpilehvar

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English Language Teaching (ELT) is widely promoted across the world. ELT textbooks play pivotal roles in the mentioned process. Since biases of authors have been an issue of continuing interest to analysts over the past few years, the present study seeks to analyze an ELT textbook using Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA). To obtain the goal of the study, the listening section of a book called World English 3 (new edition) has been analyzed in terms of the cultures and countries mentioned in the listening section of the book using content-based analysis. The analysis indicates biases towards certain cultures. Moreover, some countries are shown as rich and powerful countries, while some others have been shown as poor ones without considering the history behind them.

Keywords: ELT, textbooks, critical discourse analysis, World English

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Authors: Nilay K. Doshi

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A theoretical probe describing the excited energy states of the electron density surrounding a nanoparticle (NP) is presented. An electromagnetic (EM) wave interacts with a NP much smaller than the incident wavelength. The plasmon that oscillates locally around the NP comprises of excited conduction electrons. The system is based on the Jellium model of a cluster of metal atoms. Hohenberg-Kohn (HK) equations and the variational Kohn-Sham (SK) scheme have been used to obtain the NP electron density in the ground state. Furthermore, a time-dependent density functional (TDDFT) theory is used to treat the excited states in a density functional theory (DFT) framework. The non-interacting fermionic kinetic energy is shown to be a functional of the electron density. The time dependent potential is written as the sum of the nucleic potential and the incoming EM field. This view of the quantum oscillation of the electron density is a part of the localized surface plasmon resonance.

Keywords: electron density, energy, electromagnetic, DFT, TDDFT, plasmon, resonance

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Authors: M. Munirul Islam, Makhduma Khatun M., Janet M. Peerson, Tahmeed Ahmed, M. Abid Hossain Mollah, Kathryn G. Dewey, Kenneth H. Brown

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Information is required on the effects of dietary energy density (ED) and feeding frequency (FF) of complementary foods (CF) on food consumption during individual meals and time expended in child feeding. We evaluated the effects of varied ED and FF of CFs on food intake and time required for child feeding during individual meals. During 9 separate, randomly ordered dietary periods lasting 3-6 days each, we measured self-determined intakes of porridges by 18 healthy, breastfed children 8-11 mo old who were fed coded porridges with energy densities of 0.5, 1.0 or 1.5 kcal/g, during 3, 4, or 5 meals/d. CF intake was measured by weighing the feeding bowl before and after every meal. Children consumed greater amounts of CFs per meal when they received diets with lower ED (p = 0.044) and fewer meals per day (p < 0.001). Food intake was less during the first meal of the day than the other meals. Greater time was expended per meal when fewer meals were offered. Time expended per meal did not vary by ED, but the children ate the lower ED diets faster (p = 0.019). Food intake velocity was also greater when more meals were offered per day (p = 0.005). These results provide further evidence of young children’s ability to regulate their energy intakes, even during infancy; and they convey information on factors that affect the amount of time that caregivers must devote to child feeding.

Keywords: complementary foods, energy density, feeding frequency, young children

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Authors: Longfei Wang, Selçuk Köse

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Hardware Trojan becomes great concern as integrated circuit (IC) technology advances and not all manufacturing steps of an IC are accomplished within one company. Real-time hardware Trojan detection is proven to be a feasible way to detect randomly activated Trojans that cannot be detected at testing stage. On-chip sensors serve as a great candidate to implement real-time hardware Trojan detection, however, the optimization of on-chip sensors has not been thoroughly investigated and the location of Trojan has not been carefully explored. On-chip sensor ellipse distribution method and equivalent mapping technique are proposed based on the characteristics of on-chip power delivery network in this paper to address the optimization and distribution of on-chip sensors for real-time hardware Trojan detection as well as to estimate the location and current consumption of hardware Trojan. Simulation results verify that hardware Trojan activation can be effectively detected and the location of a hardware Trojan can be efficiently estimated with less than 5% error for a realistic power grid using our proposed methods. The proposed techniques therefore lay a solid foundation for isolation and even deactivation of hardware Trojans through accurate location of Trojans.

Keywords: hardware trojan, on-chip sensor, power distribution network, power/ground noise

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Authors: Ali Yasin, Ali Kamran, Muhammad Safdar

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In order to reduce the hefty cost involved in terms of time and project cost, the development and application of advanced numerical tools to address the burn-back analysis problem in solid rocket motor design and development is the need of time. Several advanced numerical schemes have been developed in recent times, but their usage in the design of propellant grain of solid rocket motors is very rare. In this paper, an advanced numerical technique named the Level-Set method has been utilized for the burn-back analysis of star grain to study the effect of geometrical parameters on ballistic performance indicators such as solid loading, neutrality, and sliver percentage. In the level set technique, simple finite difference methods may fail quickly and require more sophisticated non-oscillatory schemes for feasible long-time simulation. For internal ballistic calculations, a simplified equilibrium pressure method is utilized. Preliminary results of the operative conditions, for all the combustion time, of star grain burn-back using level set techniques are compared with published results using CAD technique to test the developed numerical model.

Keywords: solid rocket motor, internal ballistic, level-set technique, star grain

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Authors: Mette Dalgaard Nielsen

Abstract:

The paper serves the purpose of providing an eco-systemic typology of fashion resale business models in Denmark while pointing to possibilities to learn from its wisdom during a time when a fundamental break with the dominant linear fashion paradigm has become inevitable. As we transgress planetary boundaries and can no longer continue the unsustainable path of over-exploiting the Earth’s resources, the global fashion industry faces a tremendous need for change. One of the preferred answers to the fashion industry’s sustainability crises lies in the circular economy, which aims to maximize the utilization of resources by keeping garments in use for longer. Thus, in the context of fashion, resale business models that allow pre-owned garments to change hands with the purpose of being reused in continuous cycles are considered to be among the most efficient forms of circularity. Methodologies: The paper is based on empirical data from an ongoing project and a series of qualitative pilot studies that have been conducted on the Danish resale market over a 2-year time period from Fall 2021 to Fall 2023. The methodological framework is comprised of (n) ethnography and fieldwork in selected resale environments, as well as semi-structured interviews and a workshop with eight business partners from the Danish fashion and textiles industry. By focusing on the real-world circulation of pre-owned garments, which is enabled by the identified resale business models, the research lets go of simplistic hypotheses to the benefit of dynamic, vibrant and non-linear processes. As such, the paper contributes to the emerging research field of circular economy and fashion, which finds itself in a critical need to move from non-verified concepts and theories to empirical evidence. Findings: Based on the empirical data and anchored in the business partners, the paper analyses and presents five distinct resale business models with different product, service and design characteristics. These are 1) branded resale, 2) trade-in resale, 3) peer-2-peer resale, 4) resale boutiques and consignment shops and 5) resale shelf/square meter stores and flea markets. Together, the five business models represent a plurality of resale-promoting business model design elements that have been found to contribute to the circulation of pre-owned garments in various ways for different garments, users and businesses in Denmark. Hence, the provided typology points to the necessity of prioritizing several rather than single resale business model designs, services and initiatives for the resale market to help reconfigure the linear fashion model and create a circular-ish future. Conclusions: The article represents a twofold research ambition by 1) presenting an original, up-to-date eco-systemic typology of resale business models in Denmark and 2) using the typology and its eco-systemic traits as a tool to understand different business model design elements and possibilities to help fashion grow out of its linear growth model. By basing the typology on eco-systemic mechanisms and actual exemplars of resale business models, it becomes possible to envision the contours of a genuine alternative to business as usual that ultimately helps bend the linear fashion model towards circularity.

Keywords: circular business models, circular economy, fashion, resale, strategic design, sustainability

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Authors: Sunny Arora, Meghal A. Desai

Abstract:

An impetus towards green consumerism and implementation of sustainable techniques, consumption of natural products and utilization of environment friendly techniques have gained accelerated acceptance. Butein, a natural colorant, has many medicinal properties apart from its use in dyeing industries. Extraction of butein from the flowers of flame of forest was carried out using ultrasonication bath. Solid loading (2-6 g), extraction time (30-50 min), volume of solvent (30-50 mL) and types of solvent (methanol, ethanol and water) have been studied to maximize the yield of butein using the Taguchi method. The highest yield of butein 4.67% (w/w) was obtained using 4 g of plant material, 40 min of extraction time and 30 mL volume of methanol as a solvent. The present method provided a greater reduction in extraction time compared to the conventional method of extraction. Hence, the outcome of the present investigation could further be utilized to develop the method at a higher scale.

Keywords: butein, flowers of Flame of the Forest, Taguchi method, ultrasonic bath

Procedia PDF Downloads 480

Authors: Qing Dai, Zhengkui Lin, Jiajia Zhang, Yi Qu

Abstract:

Based on activity method, this paper focuses on morning commuting behavior when commuters travel with autonomous vehicles (AVs). Firstly, a net utility function of commuters is constructed by the activity utility of commuters at home, in car and at workplace, and the disutility of travel time cost and that of schedule delay cost. Then, this net utility function is applied to build an equilibrium model. Finally, under the assumption of constant marginal activity utility, the properties of equilibrium are analyzed. The results show that, in autonomous driving, the starting and ending time of morning peak and the number of commuters who arrive early and late at workplace are the same as those in manual driving. In automatic driving, however, the departure rate of arriving early at workplace is higher than that of manual driving, while the departure rate of arriving late is just the opposite. In addition, compared with manual driving, the departure time of arriving at workplace on time is earlier and the number of people queuing at the bottleneck is larger in automatic driving. However, the net utility of commuters and the total net utility of system in automatic driving are greater than those in manual driving.

Keywords: autonomous cars, bottleneck model, activity utility, user equilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Mimoza Canga, Irene Malagnino, Ruzhdie Qafmolla, Vergjini Mulo, Gresa Baboci, Vito Antonio Malagnino

Abstract:

Background: Dental caries represents the most widespread pathology in childhood. The prevalence of dental caries varies with age, gender, socio economic status, geographical location, nutrition habits, and oral hygiene. Objective: The objective of the present longitudinal study is to show clearly the prevalence of dental caries in the children of age 6 and 7 years old in Vlore, Albania, in a two year time period with controls done every 6 months. Materials and methods: The present study was conducted on 530 children, with a controlled sample for a time period of 24 months from September 2019- September 2021. The children in the study had different economic and social backgrounds. The teeth controls were done by the dentists who work at the hospital of the city. The present study was conducted in accordance with Helsinki declaration. Permissions were obtained in written form, which allowed us to perform the observations. Parents had the right to withdraw their children at any time. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics 23.0. The significance level (α) was set at 0.05, whereas P-value and analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used to analyze the data. Results: The data of the present study showed that the age group of 6 years old had 139 or 52.3% of the children with dental caries and 127 or 47.7% of them had no dental caries, while at the age of 7 there were 184 or 69.7% of the children with dental caries problems in the permanent molars and 80 or 30.3% of them had no dental caries. In the present study, it was observed that there is a statistically significant association between age group and presence of caries. Children 7 years old had higher presence of dental caries (χ2 = 16.934 (df 1) p-value < 0.001). According to the present research, there is a statistically significant correlation between period of time and the presence of dental caries. Furthermore, in the actual research, it was established that in the time 18-24 months, the prevalence of dental caries was high (χ2=15,318 (df 1) p-value = 0.004). Conclusion: According to the results of the present study performed in Albania in a two year time period with controls done every 6 months, it is proved that the prevalence of dental caries was 17.4 percent higher among children 7 years old in comparison with the children 6 years old.

Keywords: age, children, dental caries, permanent molars

Procedia PDF Downloads 230